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DOE OSTI2024

Compilation of a Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog and Relocations in the Caucasus Region

Instrumental seismic monitoring has a long history in the Caucasus and started in 1899 when the first seismograph was installed in Tbilisi, Georgia. Much of the analog paper records from this time period are preserved in the Tbilisi archives because Georgia served as the regional data center. In the 1990s, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the political turmoil in the region, the analog networks and the communication between the newly formed national networks deteriorated. In Georgia, for the next 13 yr, the seismic network coverage was poor until the 2002 Tbilisi earthquake. Following this earthquake, the first permanent digital seismic station in Georgia was established in Tbilisi in 2003. The digital era progressively improved the ability to collect and archive data and today more than a hundred broadband seismic stations (including temporary arrays) are operating in the southern Caucasus. Until recently, the region lacked a coordinated effort to catalog all analog and digital era data collected by different countries into a single repository. As a result of collaboration between Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Ilia State University, and the Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan, a comprehensive earthquake catalog was compiled for the Caucasus and neighboring areas as part of a broader probabilistic seismic hazard assessment project. Here this project digitized Soviet-era paper bulletins, compiled a unified earthquake catalog from regional bulletins, developed 1D reference velocity model, and used it to relocate the events. The final catalog contains 16,963 events with magnitudes 3.7 and above, bringing together all the available data sets in the Caucasus region from 1900 to 2015, significantly improving locations, and generating the most complete earthquake catalog in the region, temporally and geographically.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Measurement of Geopotential Heights by GPS Radio Occultation

Geopotential heights of constant pressure surfaces are retrieved from global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation data. In order to assess accuracy a subset of data obtained by GPS/MET during spring 1995 and summer 1995 are compared to the output of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model. The root-mean-square measurement error is 20 m throughout the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Furthermore, the ECMWF global model contains enhanced errors in the southeast Pacific. In probing the data for potential utility in climate studies, a Bayesian interpolation technique is used to map the geopotential height fields in the upper troposphere during the summer. Despite limitations of the GPS/MET data set the global average 300-mbar geopotential height over a 2-week period in summer 1995 is determined with an accuracy of 7 m. By obtaining greater coverage and partially resolving synoptic variability, a future constellation of 16 orbiting receivers could obtain global average geopotential height estimates in the upper troposphere with an accuracy of 1 m each day. Accuracy would be somewhat worse for regional studies, except in the tropics where synoptic variability is depressed.

Leroy, Stephen S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Implications of Version 8 TOMS and SBUV Data for Long-Term Trend Analysis

Total ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and profile/total ozone data from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV; SBW/2) series of instruments have recently been reprocessed using new retrieval algorithms (referred to as Version 8 for both) and updated calibrations. In this paper, we incorporate the Version 8 data into a TOMS/SBW merged total ozone data set and an S B W merged profile ozone data set. The Total Merged Ozone Data (Total MOD) combines data from multiple TOMS and SBW instruments to form an internally consistent global data set with virtually complete time coverage from October 1978 through December 2003. Calibration differences between instruments are accounted for using external adjustments based on instrument intercomparisons during overlap periods. Previous results showed errors due to aerosol loading and sea glint are significantly reduced in the V8 TOMS retrievals. Using SBW as a transfer standard, calibration differences between V8 Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMS data are approx. 1.3%, suggesting small errors in calibration remain. We will present updated total ozone long-term trends based on the Version 8 data. The Profile Merged Ozone Data (Profile MOD) data set is constructed using data from the SBUV series of instruments. In previous versions, SAGE data were used to establish the long-term external calibration of the combined data set. The SBW Version 8 we assess the V8 profile data through comparisons with SAGE and between SBW instruments in overlap periods. We then construct a consistently-calibrated long term time series. Updated zonal mean trends as a function of altitude and season from the new profile data set will be shown, and uncertainties in determining the best long-term calibration will be discussed.

Frith, Stacey M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Compound Risk of Heat and COVID-19 in New York City: Riskscapes, Physical and Social Factors, and Interventions

Climate change is disrupting the fundamental conditions of human life and exacerbating existing inequity by placing further burdens on communities that are already vulnerable. Risk exposure varies by where people live and work. In this article, we examine the spatial overlap of the compound risks of COVID-19 and extreme heat in New York City. We assess the relationship between socio-demographic and natural, built and social environmental characteristics, and the spatial correspondence of COVID-19 daily case rates across three pandemic waves. We use these data to create a compound risk index combining heat, COVID-19, density and social vulnerability. Our findings demonstrate that the compound risk of COVID-19 and heat are public health and equity challenges. Heat and COVID-19 exposure are influenced by natural, built, and social environmental factors, including access to mitigation infrastructure. Socio-demographic characteristics are significant indicators of COVID-19 and heat exposure and of where compound vulnerability exists. Using GIS mapping, we illustrate how COVID-19 risk geographies change across the three waves of the pandemic and the particular impact of vaccinations before the onset of the third wave. We, then, use our compound risk index to assess heat interventions undertaken by the City, identify neighborhoods of both adequate and inadequate coverage and provide recommendations for future interventions.

COVID-19↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗
NASA NTRS2006

Variations in the Sea Ice Edge and the Marginal Ice Zone on Different Spatial Scales as Observed from Different Satellite Sensor

The Marginal sea Ice Zone (MIZ) and the sea ice edge are the most dynamic areas of the sea ice cover. Knowledge of the sea ice edge location is vital for routing shipping in the polar regions. The ice edge is the location of recurrent plankton blooms, and is the habitat for a number of animals, including several which are under severe ecological threat. Polar lows are known to preferentially form along the sea ice edge because of induced atmospheric baroclinicity, and the ice edge is also the location of both vertical and horizontal ocean currents driven by thermal and salinity gradients. Finally, sea ice is both a driver and indicator of climate change and monitoring the position of the ice edge accurately over long time periods enables assessment of the impact of global and regional warming near the poles. Several sensors are currently in orbit that can monitor the sea ice edge. These sensors, though, have different spatial resolutions, different limitations, and different repeat frequencies. Satellite passive microwave sensors can monitor the ice edge on a daily or even twice-daily basis, albeit with low spatial resolution - 25 km for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) or 12.5 km for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). Although special methods exist that allow the detection of the sea ice edge at a quarter of that nominal resolution (PSSM). Visible and infrared data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provide daily coverage at 1 km and 250 m, respectively, but the surface observations me limited to cloud-free periods. The Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) has a resolution of 15 to 30 m but is limited to cloud-free periods as well, and does not provide daily coverage. Imagery from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instruments has resolutions of tens of meters to 100 m, and can be used to distinguish open water and sea ice on the basis of surface and volume scattering characteristics. The Canadian RADARSAT C-band SAR provides data that cover the Arctic Ocean and the MIZ every 3 days. A change-point detection approach was utilized to obtain an ice edge estimate from the RADARSAT data The Quickscat scatterometer provides ice edge information with a resolution of a few kilometers on a near-daily basis. During portions of March and April of 2003 a series of aircraft flights were conducted over the ice edge in the Bering Sea carrying the Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer (PSR), which provides spectral coverage identical with the AMSR-E instrument at a resolution of 500 meters. In this study we investigated these different data sets and analyzed differences in their definition of the sea ice edge and the marginal ice zone and how these differences as well as their individual limitations affect the monitoring of the ice edge dynamics. We also examined how the nature of the sea ice edge, including its location, compactness and shape, changes over the seasons. Our approach was based on calculation of distances between ice edges derived from the satellite and aircraft data sets listed above as well as spectral coherence methods and shape parameters such as tortuosity, curvature, and fractional dimension.

Markus, Thorsten↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Illumination Conditions of the Lunar Polar Regions Using LOLA Topography

We use high-resolution altimetry data obtained by the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter instrument onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to characterize present illumination conditions in the polar regions of the Moon. Compared to previous studies, both the spatial and temporal extent of the simulations are increased significantly, as well as the coverage (fill ratio) of the topographic maps used, thanks to the 28 Hz firing rate of the five-beam instrument. We determine the horizon elevation in a number of directions based on 240 m-resolution polar digital elevation models reaching down to 75 latitude. The illumination of both polar regions extending to 80 can be calculated for any geometry from those horizon longitudinal profiles. We validated our modeling with recent Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Wide-Angle Camera images. We assessed the extent of permanently shadowed regions (PSRs, defined as areas that never receive direct solar illumination), and obtained total areas generally larger than previous studies (12,866 and 16,055 sq. km, in the north and south respectively). We extended our direct illumination model to account for singly-scattered light, and found that every PSR does receive some amount of scattered light during the year. We conducted simulations over long periods (several 18.6-years lunar precession cycles) with a high temporal resolution (6 h), and identified the most illuminated locations in the vicinity of both poles. Because of the importance of those sites for exploration and engineering considerations, we characterized their illumination more precisely over the near future. Every year, a location near the Shackleton crater rim in the south polar region is sunlit continuously for 240 days, and its longest continuous period in total darkness is about 1.5 days. For some locations small height gains ( 10 m) can dramatically improve their average illumination and reduce the night duration, rendering some of those particularly attractive energy-wise as possible sites for near-continuous sources of solar power.

E. Mazarico↗
NASA NTRS2021

Global Soil Water Estimates as Landslide Predictor: The Effectiveness of SMOS, SMAP, and GRACE Observations, Land Surface Simulations, and Data Assimilation

This global feasibility study assesses the potential of coarse-scale, gridded soil water estimates for the probabilistic modeling of hydrologically-triggered landslides, using Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing data, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations and six data products based on the assimilation of SMOS, SMAP, and/or GRACE observations into CLSM. SMOS or SMAP observations (~40-km resolution) are only available for less than 20% of the globally reported landslide events, because they are intermittent and uncertain in regions with complex terrain. GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates include 75% of the reported landslides but have coarse spatial and temporal resolutions (monthly, ~300-km). CLSM soil water simulations have the added advantage of complete spatial and temporal coverage, and are found to be able to distinguish between “stable slope” (no landslide) conditions and landslide-inducing conditions in a probabilistic way. Assimilating SMOS and/or GRACE data increases the landslide probability estimates based on soil water percentiles for the reported landslides, relative to model-only estimates at 36-km resolution for the period 2011-2016, unless the CLSM model-only soil water content is already high (≥ 50th percentile). The SMAP Level 4 data assimilation product (at 9-km resolution, period 2015-2019) more generally updates the soil water conditions towards higher landslide probabilities for the reported landslides, but is similar to model-only estimates for the majority of landslides where SMAP data cannot easily be converted to soil moisture owing to complex terrain.

Anne Felsberg↗
DOE OSTI2022

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021. We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study. We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases, like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict. Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. However, while death numbers can be predicted with some success based on current case and hospitalization data, predictability of case numbers remains low beyond quite short time horizons. Additional data sources including sequencing and mobility data, which were not extensively used in the present study, may help to improve performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Images and topographic relief at the north pole of Venus

The analysis of unique coverage of the north pole of Venus using a subset of 13 images from a total of about 775 synthetic aperture radar orbits during cycle 1 of the Magellan mission is reported. Images at 13 distinctly different azimuths are reported that range over 360 deg in longitude and that show the topographic relief at vastly different imaging geometries at intervals of about 20 deg. A pair of intersecting or crossing orbits is used to assess the topographic relief with stereo radargrammetric techniques, and to refine this assessment using a multiimage clinometric approach. It is shown that the pole is located in accentuated topography with elevation differences in the range of no more than 1 km. It is concluded that pinpointing the location of the pole from the overlapping images and standard mission data is accurate to within about 100 pixels or 8 km (RMS).

Leberl, Franz W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-scale integration of satellite remote sensing improves characterization of dry-season green-up in an Amazon tropical evergreen forest

In tropical forests, leaf phenology-particularly the pronounced dry-season green-up-strongly regulates biogeochemical cycles of carbon and water fluxes. However, uncertainties remain in the understanding of tropical forest leaf phenology at different spatial scales. Phenocams accurately characterize leaf phenology at the crown and ecosystem scales but are limited to a few sites and time spans of a few years. Time-series satellite observations might fill this gap, but the commonly used satellites (e.g. MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel-2) have resolutions too coarse to characterize single crowns. To resolve this observational challenge, we used the PlanetScope constellation with a 3m resolution and near daily nadir-view coverage. We first developed a rigorous method to cross-calibrate PlanetScope surface reflectance using daily BRDF-adjusted MODIS as the reference. We then used linear spectral unmixing of calibrated PlanetScope to obtain dry-season change in the fractional cover of green vegetation (GV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) at the PlanetScope pixel level. We used the Central Amazon Tapajos National Forest k67 site, as all necessary data (from field to phenocam and satellite observations) was available. For this proof of concept, we chose a set of 22 dates of PlanetScope measurements in 2018 and 16 in 2019, all from the six drier months of the year to provide the highest possible cloud-free temporal resolution. Our results show that MODIS-calibrated dry-season PlanetScope data (1) accurately assessed seasonal changes in ecosystem-scale and crown-scale spectral reflectance; (2) detected an increase in ecosystem-scale GV fraction (and a decrease in NPV fraction) from June to November of both years, consistent with local phenocam observations with R 2 around 0.8; and (3) monitored large seasonal trend variability in crown-scale NPV fraction. Finally, our results highlight the potential of integrating multi-scale satellite observations to extend fine-scale leaf phenology monitoring beyond the spatial limits of phenocams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Landsat Data Continuity Mission

The Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) is currently under development and is on schedule to launch the 8th satellite in the Landsat series in December of 2012. LDCM is a joint project between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). NASA is responsible for developing and launching the flight hardware and on-orbit commissioning and USGS is responsible for developing the ground system and operating the system onorbit after commissioning. Key components of the flight hardware are the Operational Land Imager (OLI), nearing completion by Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp in Boulder, CO, the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), being built by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and the spacecraft, undergoing integration at Orbital Sciences Corp in Gilbert, Arizona. The launch vehicle will be an Atlas-5 with launch services provided by NASA's Kennedy Space Center. Key ground systems elements are the Mission Operations Element, being developed by the Hammers Corporation, and the Collection Activity Planning Element, Ground Network Element, and Data Processing and Archive System, being developed internally by the USGS Earth Resources Observations and Science (EROS) Center. The primary measurement goal of LDCM is to continue the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution imagery providing continuity with the existing Landsat record. The science goal for this imagery is to monitor land use and land cover, particularly as it relates to global climate change. Together the OLI and TIRS instruments on LDCM replace the ETM+ instrument on Landsat-7 with significant enhancements. The OLI is a pushbroom design instrument where the scanning mechanism of the ETM+ is effectively replaced by a long line of detectors. The OLI has 9 spectral bands with similar spatial resolution to ETM+: 7 of them similar to the reflective spectral bands on ETM+ and two new bands. The two new bands cover (1) the shorter wavelength blue part of the spectrum to help with coastal studies and aerosol analyses/atmospheric correction and (2) an atmospheric water absorption band, where the Earth surface is generally not visible, but Cirrus clouds are, to aid in cloud detection and screening. The radiometry of OLI benefits from improved SNR, dynamic range and quantization. OLI is undergoing system testing with a delivery scheduled for Spring 2011. The TIRS is also a pushbroom design and used QWIPS detectors that require cooling to 43K using a cryocooler. It.has two spectral bands, effectively splitting the ETM+ band 6 in half, that can be used as a split window to aid in atmospheric correction. It has nominally 100 m spatial resolution as opposed to the 60 m of Landsat-7 ETM+: TIRS has commenced integration and test, with a delivery to the spacecraft vendor scheduled for Winter 2011-2012. The Orbital spacecraft currently being integrated for LDCM will have improved capabilities for pointing over previous missions. These capabilities will allow the OLI and TIRS instruments to point off-nadir the equivalent of one WRS-2 path to increase the chances of coverage for high priority targets, particularly in the event of natural disasters. Also, the pointing capability will allow the calibration of the OLI using the sun (roughly weekly), the moon (monthly), stars (during commissioning) and the Earth (at 90 deg from normal orientation, a.k.a., side slither) quarterly. The solar calibration will be used for OLI absolute and relative calibration, the moon for trending the stability of the OLI response, the stars will be used for Line of Sight determination and the side slither will be an alternate OLI and relative gain determination methodology. The spacecraft is scheduled to begin integration with the OLI instrument in Summer 2011. The LDCM data processing and archive system (DPAS), located at USGS EROS, generates the products for distribution to users. Like Landsat-7 this includes an image assessment system for characrizing instrument performance and updating calibration parameters. Products will be generated that include the spectral bands from both instruments, terrain corrected and registered to the geoid. Also, like Landsat-7, data products will be distributed at no charge to the user. The current status and plans of the space and ground segments of the LDCM project will be presented along with performance predictions as available. More detailed information on the two instruments is intended to be presented in separate papers.

Markham, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Updated GEO Population for ORDEM 3.1

The limited availability of data for satellite fragmentations and debris in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) region creates challenges to building accurate models for the orbital debris environment at such altitudes. Updated methods to properly incorporate and extrapolate measurement data have become a cornerstone of the GEO component in the newest version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), ORDEM 3.1. For the GEO region, the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog provides coverage down to a limit of approximately 1 m. A more statistically complete representation of the GEO population for smaller objects, which can pose a high risk to operational spacecraft, is thus dependent on dedicated observations by instruments optimized to observe debris smaller than the SSN cataloging threshold. For ORDEM 3.1, optical data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) provided the input for building the GEO population down to approximately 30 cm (converting absolute magnitude to size). For smaller sizes, the size distribution of debris in the MODEST dataset was extrapolated down to 10 cm, and orbital parameters were estimated based on the orbits of the larger objects. When compared to previous versions of the model, significant improvements were made to the process of building the GEO population in ORDEM 3.1, both in the assessment of fragmentation debris in the data and assignment of orbital elements within the model. A so-called “debris ring filter,” based on a range of angles between an orbit’s angular momentum vector and that of the stable Laplace plane, was applied to the data to reduce biases from non- GEO objects, such as objects in a GEO-transfer orbit. In addition, a new approach was implemented to assign noncircular mean motions and eccentricities to the fragmentation debris observed by MODEST because the short observation window (5 min) in GEO limits orbit resolution to a circular orbit assumption for assigning orbital parameters. For ORDEM 3.1, non-circular orbital elements were assigned using relationships that were identified between mean motion and the angle between the orbit plane and the stable Laplace plane, as well as between mean motion and eccentricity, based on breakup clouds modeled by the NASA Standard Breakup Model. This approach has yielded a high-fidelity GEO model that has been validated with data from more recent MODEST observation campaigns.

Manis, A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experimental Testing of Data Fusion in A Distributed Ground-Based Sensing Network for Advanced Air Mobility

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is an active area of development which foresees the integration of autonomous uncrewed aircraft into the civil airspace for air transportation of people and cargo. Safe integration requires significant technological developments and extensive testing phases of sensing and surveillance strategies in dense airspace. Compared to well-assessed manned aviation systems scenarios, surveillance strategies in the AAM and small Uncrewed Aircraft Vehicles(UAVs) context need to detect smaller platforms flying at lower altitude against cluttered backgrounds in dense airspace. Fusion of data provided by a network of distributed sensing nodes is a powerful tool to enable detection and tracking in such complex conditions. This paper contributes to this research direction by proposing a surveillance strategy for the AAM environment based on sensor fusion of data acquired by distributed ground-based radars. Specifically, experimental data collected with two independent radars, observing the flight of two small UAVs, are used. Data fusion at tracking level is based on a leader-helper strategy where the leader radar uses the helper’s measurements to increase the lifespan of its generated tracks. This solution shows promising results with a 10%increase in track coverage with respect to the standalone leader radar tracking solution. The paper also proposes an interference removal processing method which is applied on the data collected by one of the two radars.

Federica Vitiello↗
NASA NTRS2025

Demonstration of Data Processing and Fusion from Distributed Radars for AAM Surveillance

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is an active area of development which foresees the integration of autonomous uncrewed aircraft into the civil airspace for air transportation of people and cargo. Safe integration requires significant technological developments and extensive testing phases of sensing and surveillance strategies in dense airspace. Compared to well-assessed manned aviation systems scenarios, surveillance strategies in the AAM and small Uncrewed Aircraft Vehicles (UAVs) context need to detect smaller platforms flying at lower altitude against cluttered backgrounds in dense airspace. Fusion of data provided by a network of distributed sensing nodes is a powerful tool to enable detection and tracking in such complex conditions. This paper contributes to this research direction by proposing a surveillance strategy for the AAM environment based on sensor fusion of data acquired by distributed ground-based radars. Specifically, experimental data collected with three independent radars, observing the flight of two small UAVs, are used. Data fusion at tracking level is based on a leader-helper strategy where the leader radar uses the helper’s measurements to increase the lifespan of its generated tracks. This solution shows promising results with a 10% increase in track coverage with respect to the standalone leader radar tracking solution. The paper also proposes an interference removal processing method which is applied on the data collected by two of the radars.

Federica Vitiello↗
NASA NTRS1996

Cygnus X-1: A Case for a Magnetic Accretion Disk?

With the advent of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), which is capable of broad spectral coverage and fast timing, as well as other instruments which are increasingly being used in multi-wavelength campaigns (via both space-based and ground-based observations), we must demand more of our theoretical models. No current model mimics all facets of a system as complex as an x-ray binary. However, a modern theory should qualitatively reproduce - or at the very least not fundamentally disagree with - all of Cygnus X-l's most basic average properties: energy spectrum (viewed within a broader framework of black hole candidate spectral behavior), power spectrum (PSD), and time delays and coherence between variability in different energy bands. Below we discuss each of these basic properties in turn, and we assess the health of one of the currently popular theories: Comptonization of photons from a cold disk. We find that the data pose substantial challenges for this theory, as well as all other in currently discussed models.

Nowak, Michael A.↗