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Facility Cybersecurity Framework Best Practices Version 2.0

Federal facilities are increasingly adopting automation and connecting to the Internet creating an energy-internet-of-things environment that converges operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT). Today's buildings increasingly weave together networked sensors and cyber and physical systems that enable data to be collected, aggregated, exchanged, stored and monetized in new ways. Building technological advances have created new energy technology, services, markets and value creation opportunities (e.g. transactive energy, two-way grid communications, machine learning, and increased use of renewable and distributed energy resources). But as larger data sets are being exchanged at faster speeds between an increasing number of OT systems, it becomes more difficult to protect the security of the data lifecycle and the physical equipment it interacts with. These challenges are especially difficult to overcome because the economic and environmental gain (interoperability, big data, social networks and ubiquitous information sharing) are driving these prominent trends in the digital age. Often cybersecurity is an afterthought.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Facility Cybersecurity Framework Best Practices Version 2.0

Federal facilities are increasingly adopting automation and connecting to the Internet creating an energy-internet-of-things environment that converges operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT). Today's buildings increasingly weave together networked sensors and cyber and physical systems that enable data to be collected, aggregated, exchanged, stored and monetized in new ways. Building technological advances have created new energy technology, services, markets and value creation opportunities (e.g. transactive energy, two-way grid communications, machine learning, and increased use of renewable and distributed energy resources). But as larger data sets are being exchanged at faster speeds between an increasing number of OT systems, it becomes more difficult to protect the security of the data lifecycle and the physical equipment it interacts with. These challenges are especially difficult to overcome because the economic and environmental gain (interoperability, big data, social networks and ubiquitous information sharing) are driving these prominent trends in the digital age. Often cybersecurity is an afterthought.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MABAL: a Novel Deep-Learning Architecture for Machine-Assisted Bone Age Labeling

Bone age assessment (BAA) is a commonly performed diagnostic study in pediatric radiology to assess skeletal maturity. The most commonly utilized method for assessment of BAA is the Greulich and Pyle method (Pediatr Radiol 46.9:1269–1274, 2016; Arch Dis Child 81.2:172–173, 1999) atlas. The evaluation of BAA can be a tedious and time-consuming process for the radiologist. As such, several computer-assisted detection/diagnosis (CAD) methods have been proposed for automation of BAA. Classical CAD tools have traditionally relied on hard-coded algorithmic features for BAA which suffer from a variety of drawbacks. Recently, the advent and proliferation of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has shown promise in a variety of medical imaging applications. There have been at least two published applications of using deep learning for evaluation of bone age (Med Image Anal 36:41–51, 2017; JDI 1–5, 2017). However, current implementations are limited by a combination of both architecture design and relatively small datasets. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of a customized neural network algorithm carefully calibrated to the evaluation of bone age utilizing a relatively large institutional dataset. In doing so, this study will aim to show that advanced architectures can be successfully trained from scratch in the medical imaging domain and can generate results that outperform any existing proposed algorithm. The training data consisted of 10,289 images of different skeletal age examinations, 8909 from the hospital Picture Archiving and Communication System at our institution and 1383 from the public Digital Hand Atlas Database. The data was separated into four cohorts, one each for male and female children above the age of 8, and one each for male and female children below the age of 10. The testing set consisted of 20 radiographs of each 1-year-age cohort from 0 to 1 years to 14–15+ years, half male and half female. The testing set included left-hand radiographs done for bone age assessment, trauma evaluation without significant findings, and skeletal surveys. A 14 hidden layer-customized neural network was designed for this study. The network included several state of the art techniques including residual-style connections, inception layers, and spatial transformer layers. Data augmentation was applied to the network inputs to prevent overfitting. A linear regression output was utilized. Mean square error was used as the network loss function and mean absolute error (MAE) was utilized as the primary performance metric. MAE accuracies on the validation and test sets for young females were 0.654 and 0.561 respectively. For older females, validation and test accuracies were 0.662 and 0.497 respectively. For young males, validation and test accuracies were 0.649 and 0.585 respectively. Finally, for older males, validation and test set accuracies were 0.581 and 0.501 respectively. The female cohorts were trained for 900 epochs each and the male cohorts were trained for 600 epochs. An eightfold cross-validation set was employed for hyperparameter tuning. Test error was obtained after training on a full data set with the selected hyperparameters. Using our proposed customized neural network architecture on our large available data, we achieved an aggregate validation and test set mean absolute errors of 0.637 and 0.536 respectively. To date, this is the best published performance on utilizing deep learning for bone age assessment. Our results support our initial hypothesis that customized, purpose-built neural networks provide improved performance over networks derived from pre-trained imaging data sets. We build on that initial work by showing that the addition of state-of-the-art techniques such as residual connections and inception architecture further improves prediction accuracy. This is important because the current assumption for use of residual and/or inception architectures is that a large pre-trained network is required for successful implementation given the relatively small datasets in medical imaging. Instead we show that a small, customized architecture incorporating advanced CNN strategies can indeed be trained from scratch, yielding significant improvements in algorithm accuracy. It should be noted that for all four cohorts, testing error outperformed validation error. One reason for this is that our ground truth for our test set was obtained by averaging two pediatric radiologist reads compared to our training data for which only a single read was used. This suggests that despite relatively noisy training data, the algorithm could successfully model the variation between observers and generate estimates that are close to the expected ground truth.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Final Technical Report

Statement of the problem or situation that is being addressed in your application. The DOE and its national laboratories developed the Home Energy Score™ (HES) to encourage homeowners to improve their energy performance, lower costs and to share energy information through the MLS listing, appraisal, and financing channels. While the HES is an instrumental tool, it is currently underutilized and consists of technical, structural and sector barriers which need to be addressed in order to scale and many energy efficiency contractors are understandably overwhelmed by the added time and effort and lack of incentive to sell and deliver deep retrofit projects while simultaneously meeting the DOE HES program requirements; consequently, contractors may decide to forgo participation. Home Energy Rating System (HERS) Raters have the opportunity to play the critical Assessor role in producing a Home Energy Score (HES); this role has immense potential but currently is unfulfilled. Lastly, while utilities are interested in their customer base achieving greater energy efficiency, especially to help offset growing residential loads in states like California that are accelerating electrification, utilities do not have access to the market actors who are on the front line of influence to homeowners or review and approve their permits: HERS Raters, assessors, contractors and building departments. General statement of how this problem is being addressed: ConSol will integrate the Home Energy Score™ (HES) to its State of California, approved home energy rating services (HERS) platform (CHEERS) to develop a single tool for contractors nationwide to assess, record and install recommended cost, energy, and emissions saving measures to the 140 million single-family homes throughout the U.S. and 14 million homes in California (CHEERS+HES). The CHEERS high fidelity energy code permitting data will be integrated with HES for simple, accurate, easy-to-use home energy estimation and analysis and will directly gain access to the retrofit and renovations markets with the same upgraded platform. This innovative project will assist the utilities in supporting existing homes in their jurisdictions with HES and develop measures to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. How is this problem being addressed? What is the overall project approach? In effort to expand the Home Energy Score™ (HES) by increasing the use of aggregable home energy asset data, ConSol proposes to integrate the DOE HES via Application Programming Interface (API) to its State of California approved home energy rating services platform (CHEERS). Once the CHEERS platform and HES are integrated (CHEERS+HES), this enhanced platform will be instantly available and actively deployed via Phase 1 pilot to HERS Raters, assessors and contractors in California to market-test the solution, understand the rate of adoption and identify opportunities for improvement prior to scaling nationally. The CHEERS high fidelity energy code permitting data will be integrated with HES for simple, accurate, easy-to-use home energy estimation and analysis and will directly gain access to the retrofit and renovations markets with the same upgraded platform. This innovative project will assist the building industry and homeowners with an easy-to-use assessment if energy and carbon impacts of existing homes, and assist the utilities in supporting existing homes in their jurisdictions with HES to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. What is to be done in Phase I? During Phase I of this proposed project, ConSol will (1) design software architecture that links CHEERS to the Home Energy ScoreTM via API, (2) solicit partnership from one or more California utilities for a regional pilot, (3) test the new software with its HERS Raters and contractor network in the partnership utility jurisdiction, (4) launch a pilot version of the newly developed software with HERS Raters and contractors in the utility territory, and (5) explore California’s GoGreen energy efficiency homeowner lending program in parallel with the pilot. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits. Summarize the future applications or public benefits if the project is carried over into Phase II or Phase III and beyond. The CHEERS+HES commercialized product will be ready for national market scale following a successful Phase 1 performance. The CHEERS+HES adoption is estimated to reach a 5% adoption growth rate versus the 110,000 baseline, starting in Year 1 after Phase I completion, and continuing each year. As a direct benefit to the DOE, CHEERS will set a goal of 100,000 Home Energy Score assessments for existing home alterations within the first 10 years following Phase 1 performance. The technical benefits of this proposed project include the harmonized, automated, and seamless integration of the DOE HES into the widely used and market leading California energy registry, CHEERS. The social benefits include the aggregate energy, cost and GHG savings by allowing the broader public streamlined access to the CHEERS+HES measurement and the energy efficiency recommended measures that may result. Key Words: Home Energy ScoreTM (HES); Application Programming Interface (API); Home Energy Rating Services (HERS); HERS Raters; contractors; assessors; existing homes, energy asset data; cost, energy, and emissions saving measures; energy code (Title 24) compliance; document repository; utilities; pilot; newly developed software; energy efficiency; homeowner. Summary for Members of Congress: The DOE Home Energy Score™ (HES) is a tool to encourage homeowners to improve their energy performance, lower costs and share energy information but is underutilized and consists of barriers which need to be addressed in order to scale. In effort to expand the HES, CHEERS, Inc. will integrate the HES to its State of California, approved home energy rating services (HERS) platform (CHEERS) to develop a single tool for contractors nationwide to assess, record and install recommended cost, energy, and emissions saving measures to the 140 million single-family homes throughout the U.S. and 14 million homes in California.

Application Programming Interface (API)↗

Understanding and Improving Energy Efficiency of Regional Mobility Systems Leveraging System-Level Data

Increased congestion required urban Americans to travel 6.8 billion hours more and purchase 3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a congestion cost of $\$$153 billion, according to the 2019 Urban Mobility Report. How to effectively manage the regional mobility system and improve the energy efficiency presents a big challenge to public agencies. Recent years have witnessed massive multi-jurisdictional multi-modal system-level data from various sources, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the mobility system and its energy efficiency. However, implications of system-level data for mobility and energy efficiency are unclear. Those system-level data sets are siloed, spatially and temporally sparse, biased, not unified, and lacking of insights for system management. Consequently, there is a real need to acquire, fuse, mine and learn from multi-source system-level data to prepare public agencies to deal more effectively with large-scale energy efficiency modeling, management and planning. This project proposes to intensively review inexpensive, replicable and openly-accessible data from multi-modal systems, develop a data-driven system-level modeling framework enabled and validated by data, identify the energy inefficiencies of mobility systems from infrastructure, vehicles, passenger systems, and quantify the benefits of system-level strategies to improve mobility/energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops models to effectively estimate energy consumption and emissions from various types of vehicles on the roadway networks, with high granularity and high fidelity. Traditional models often heavily rely on aggregated infrastructure or vehicle/passenger data, for example, the census survey, land-use, and traffic counts of one or several classes, which may lead to research gaps considering the emerging vehicle technologies. Those models do not contain individual vehicular information. We propose an integrated data-driven method that combines multiple network modeling components, featuring the utilization of state-wide vehicle registration data. The additional vehicle registration data improve the model performance, and produce high-resolution vehicle-specific estimates of emissions and network performance metrics. Two case studies on the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia regional network show that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate the emissions of a large-scale network, and provide valuable information for evaluating common management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Analytics and Reporting Tool (EV-ChART): Data Format and Preparation Guidance (V.5.0)

The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation maintains the Electric Vehicle Charging Analytics and Reporting Tool (EV-ChART), which provides a centralized hub for submitting electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure data directed by the Federal Highway Administration (23 CFR 680.112(a)-(c)). EV-ChART provides a streamlined data submission process and an integrated set of analytic tools, connects to other data sources, and empowers data sharing and access across stakeholders, including the public. Any data shared publicly will be aggregated and anonymized to stay in accordance with 23 CFR 680. This EV-ChART Data Format and Preparation Guidance provides a comprehensive overview of the data reporting requirements as authorized under 23 CFR 680.112(a)-(c)). The guidance is intended to be used alongside the EV-ChART Data Input Template, which defines the tabular data structure that these data submissions must follow. Per 23 CFR 680.112(a)-(c), the annual and quarterly data submissions are required of all National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program projects, as well as projects for the construction of publicly accessible EV chargers that are funded with funds made available under Title 23, United States Code, including any EV charging infrastructure project funded with federal funds that is treated as a project on a federal-aid highway. One-time data submissions are required of both the NEVI Formula Program projects and grants awarded under 23 U.S.C. 151(f) for projects that are for EV charging stations located along and designed to serve the users of designated Alternative Fuel Corridors (AFCs). Other information and data required in 23 CFR 680, such as 23 CFR 680.112(d), 23 CFR 680.116(c), and 23 CFR 680.106(a), are not discussed in this guidance.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Analytics and Reporting Tool (EV-ChART): Data Format and Preparation Guidance, Version 2.0

The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation maintains the Electric Vehicle Charging Analytics and Reporting Tool (EV-ChART), which provides a centralized hub for submitting electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure data directed by the Federal Highway Administration (23 CFR 680.112) EV-ChART will provide a streamlined data submission process and an integrated set of analytic tools, connect to other data sources, and empower data sharing and access across stakeholders, including the public. Any data shared publicly will be aggregated and anonymized to stay in accordance with 23 CFR 680. This EV-ChART Data Format and Preparation Guidance provides a comprehensive overview of the data reporting requirements as authorized under 23 CFR 680.112. The guidance is intended to be used alongside the EV-ChART Data Input Template, which defines the tabular data structure that these data submissions must follow.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

Multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based intelligent maintenance optimization framework for safety-critical systems

Abstract Maintenance optimization is a process for improving the efficiency of maintenance strategies and activities, considering various aspects of the target system and components, such as the probabilities of system failures and the cost of repair and replacement of a failed component. The improvement of maintenance optimization algorithms generally requires information from various data sources. For example, it may require the system risk information derived from risk analysis tools or the residual lifetime of a component from fault prognosis tools. The requirements of data acquisition (DAQ) and aggregation pose new challenges for maintenance management systems (MMSs) that implement and use these maintenance optimization algorithms. This paper proposes a multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based framework to facilitate DAQ from MMSs, online monitoring systems, fault detection and discrimination tools, risk assessment tools, decision-making tools, and component identification tools, and accelerate the implementation and verification of contemporary maintenance optimization models and algorithms. The proposed framework consists of a multi-aspect maintenance ontology with critical information for maintenance optimization and application interfaces for collecting information from various data sources, such as fault prognosis tools, online monitoring tools, risk assessment tools, and decision-making algorithms. In addition, this paper proposes a heuristic method for integrating concepts and properties from other existing ontologies into the proposed framework when the existing ontology is not fully compatible with the ontology under construction. Finally, the paper verifies the proposed ontology framework using a feedwater system designed for nuclear power plants with valves and filters as the components under maintenance.

Diao, Xiaoxu (ORCID:0000000346726352)↗

Flexible and Effective Object Tiering for Heterogeneous Memory Systems

Computing platforms that package multiple types of memory, each with their own performance characteristics, are quickly becoming mainstream. To operate efficiently, heterogeneous memory architectures require new data management solutions that are able to match the needs of each application with an appropriate type of memory. As the primary generators of memory usage, applications create a great deal of information that can be useful for guiding memory management, but the community still lacks tools to collect, organize, and leverage this information effectively. To address this gap, this work introduces a novel software framework that collects and analyzes object-level information to guide memory tiering. The framework includes tools to monitor the capacity and usage of individual data objects, routines that aggregate and convert this information into tier recommendations for the host platform, and mechanisms to enforce these recommendations according to user-selected policies. Moreover, the developed tools and techniques are fully automatic, work on standard Linux systems, and do not require modification or recompilation of existing software. Using this framework, this study evaluates and compares the impact of a variety of design choices for memory tiering, including different policies for prioritizing objects for the fast memory tier as well as the frequency and timing of migration events. In conclusion, the results, collected on a modern Intel platform with conventional DDR4 SDRAM as well as Intel Optane NVRAM, show that guiding data tiering with object-level information can enable significant performance and efficiency benefits compared with standard hardware- and software-directed data-tiering strategies for a diverse set of memory-intensive workloads.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dronebase Photovoltaic (PV) Fleet Imagery Quantitative Evaluation (CRADA CRD-22-22941 Final Report)

Combine the Dronebase aerial imagery with corresponding sites in the NLR Photovoltaic (PV) Fleets database. By combining these two data sources in an aggregated, anonymized fashion, we can perform the following analyses: quantifying power loss due to outages caused by stuck trackers, string outages, and shading/snow, validate site metadata, including tilt and azimuth, and correlate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Drive Cycle Powertrain Efficiencies and Trends Derived from EPA Vehicle Dynamometer Results

Vehicle manufacturers among others are putting great emphasis on improving fuel economy (FE) of light-duty vehicles in the U.S. market, with significant FE gains being realized in recent years. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data indicates that the aggregate FE of vehicles produced for the U.S. market has improved by over 20% from model year (MY) 2005 to 2013. This steep climb in FE includes changes in vehicle choice, improvements in engine and transmission technology, and reducing aerodynamic drag, rolling resistance, and parasitic losses. The powertrain related improvements focus on optimizing in-use efficiency of the transmission and engine as a system, and may make use of what is termed downsizing and/or downspeeding. This study explores quantifying recent improvements in powertrain efficiency, viewed separately from other vehicle alterations and attributes (noting that most vehicle changes are not completely independent). A methodology is outlined to estimate powertrain efficiency for the U.S city and highway cycle tests using data from the EPA vehicle database. Comparisons of common conventional gasoline powertrains for similar MY 2005 and 2013 vehicles are presented, along with results for late-model hybrid electric vehicles, the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt and other selected vehicles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A New Appraisal- Lessons from the History of Efforts to Value Green and High-Performance Home Attributes in the United States

Rigorous consideration of green and high-performance (“green/HP”) features is rarely included in the property valuation process._ To help illuminate why this is the case, this report takes stock of the history of efforts to improve practices, and identifies barriers that have emerged and opportunities for overcoming them. Particular emphasis is placed on what energy and environmental policymakers and other stakeholders outside the appraisal community can contribute to the broader effort to advance professional practices. The history has unfolded in parallel with turbulent periods in the housing market for which appraisers and their customers are deemed to share responsibility, followed by cycles of regulations, siloing of appraisers in the name of professional integrity, and commoditization of the valuation process itself. This pattern has important ramifications for aspirations that appraisers engage more fully in identifying and valuing the green/HP characteristics of homes. On the one hand, it is legally and ethically incumbent on appraisers to do so, yet on the other hand it is perceived as a risky avenue to follow. Risks arise where findings can be challenged as either over- or under-stating value, together with a market environment in which the complexity of their assignments increases despite downward pressure on appraiser fees. While efforts to address green/HP considerations date back to the early 1980s, the vast majority of activity has taken place within the past five years. Many players have engaged in the efforts to promote improved valuation practices. These include the Appraisal Foundation, The Appraisal Institute, Colorado Energy Office, Earth Advantage, EcoBroker, Elevate Energy, Fannie Mae, Federal Housing Administration, Home Innovation Research Labs, The Institute for Market Transformation, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of State Energy Officials, National Association of Appraisers, RESNET, USEPA, USDOE and its National Laboratories, the U.S. Green Buildings Council, and the Vermont Green Homes Alliance. Many activities have resulted, ranging from trainings, to data-gathering instruments, and the emergence of a literature attempting to statistically isolate the effects of green/HP characteristics on home values. In some cases, the results of studies have been overgeneralized and oversold, and embodied flawed methods. Although the green/HP community has encouraged appraisers to focus on exemplary buildings (e.g., LEED or ENERGY STAR Certified), any level of green or energy performance can in fact influence value, including below-average performance (a.k.a. “brown discount”), irrespective of whether or not the building has been formally rated. This overly narrow focus represents a significant missed opportunity. Other surmountable challenges include limitations to non-appraisers’ understanding of the appraisal process (and practical constraints therein). A byproduct of this can be unrealistic expectations of what appraisers can and will do in the marketplace. These challenges notwithstanding, the environment for moving forward has improved. There is better data today (a critical need); expanded efforts to disclose energy use information (characteristics, consumption, bills); improved and more pervasive building energy codes, building rating and labeling initiatives; and a host of federal, state, and local policies that have collectively brought green/HP practices much more into the mainstream. Meanwhile, a renewed focus on professional standards of care and competency for assessing green/HP homes make it increasingly important for appraisers to consider these factors in their assignments. Despite the past four decades of studies, there is little if any discernible uptake of these practices by the appraisal practice at large. It would behoove interested parties to step back and consider what new strategies might be productive. A key element of any new plan should be to reset the nature of interactions with the industry, with the goal a more collaborative, two-way discussion to help improve outsiders’ understanding of the valuation process. It is not only the appraiser that needs to be engaged and could benefit from awareness raising. Homeowners, builders, lenders, utilities, insurance companies should also provide input on how green/HP factors impact property valuations and ways to accurately reflect these considerations in appraisals and real estate transactions more broadly. Given extensive inertia within the appraisal industry and a mixed history of interactions with the non-appraisal stakeholders, it is unlikely that the status quo will achieve much unless followed with more coordinated and persistent efforts. Workshops, studies, and memoranda of understanding will not on their own have much impact, and do not address deeper structural issues. Expectations are often unrealistic and not attentive to real-world constraints faced by appraisers. The report identifies key barriers impeding more thorough consideration of green/HP factors in residential real estate appraisals, and solutions for mitigating them. Barriers • Although industry standards of practice caution against bias of any sort, a skeptical predisposition towards “green” is reinforced by information deficiencies. • Information deficiencies result from the lack or difficulty of obtaining usable data on green/HP features in subject properties as well as valid sales comparisons or cashflow analyses. • Competency deficiencies, such as lack of conversancy in relevant technical topics, leads to oversights, and disjointed treatment of relevant information. • Time/cost pressure and process commoditization (e.g., template-based approaches) result from highly constrained budgets, quick turn-around times expected of appraisers, and standardized practices that were not developed with green/HP considerations in mind. • Professional differences between appraisers and sustainability professionals include divergent objectives, the former being market observers and the latter market influencers. • Risk aversion arises from multiple concerns including veracity, accuracy, and persistence of energy data, impacts of operational choices, new sources of appraiser liability associated with green/HP assessments, industry pressures not to over-value buildings or suggestion of bias, and concern about spending non-billable time on complex assignments. • A public policy vacuum has been created by disjointed and uncoordinated efforts from public-sector stakeholders, insufficient efforts to discuss and understand the appraisal industry and process, and a perception by some valuation professionals that green/HP is oversold. Opportunities • Elevating the competency of appraisers can be achieved through a combination of improved industry standards of care and equal-access training and professional development offerings. • Development of better information resources must focus on building-level information that provides robust documentation as well as aggregate sales-comparison data and other contextual information such as local codes, typical upgrade costs, energy prices, etc. • Improved energy benchmarking and rating tools could provide appraisers with information more well-adapted to their particular needs, which differ from those of typical audiences such as energy managers. • Better characterizing and managing risk will enable appraisers to cope with uncertainties in performance information, and help identify where risks may be introduced or mitigated by green/HP features, including higher costs or obsolescence of poorly-performing buildings. • Integrating disaster resilience and sustainability in appraisals would recognize important synergisms among these features, including durability and ability of green/HP buildings to better withstand external hazards. • Mitigating the problem of additional time/cost for performing assignments is an essential need that can be addressed by providing easier access to information and analytic procedures, perhaps coupled with new resources to defray the associated costs. • Enhancing demand for improved appraisals is a fundamental need, and depends on owners, developers, lenders, and others soliciting competent appraisers to perform scopes that expressly call out green/HP considerations, and to critically review the work product for compliance before acceptance. • Engaging new market participants, such as energy utilities and insurance companies can ensure fuller representation and participation of market stakeholders already engaged in green/HP activities and capable of furnishing valuable data and managing associated risks. Cutting across these individual activities, there is a need for outside stakeholders to formulate and follow a roadmap instead of piecemeal initiatives, bridging the professional/cultural divide between appraisers and green/HP communities, and tracking progress in order to know what is working. A more coherent communication and training strategy is needed, as the appraisal industry is highly fragmented, with two-thirds of appraisers opting out of membership in trade associations. In sum, while there is no silver bullet for advancing the practice of valuing green/HP features, there are concrete opportunities. Parties seeking solutions must identify barriers they wish to address and select from among potential initiatives that map to those barriers. Close collaboration with the appraisal community is critical, as non-appraisers have historically obtained limited traction with this industry due to lack of understanding of the nuances involved in the valuation profession. Large organizations and agencies should have a united approach; the perception or reality of a fragmented and uncoordinated strategy is unsettling for prospective partners in the appraisal industry. This requires improved communication and education within and among these communities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Using E-PRTR data on point source emissions to air and water—First steps towards a national chemical footprint

There is a great need for indicators to monitor the use and potential impacts of hazardous chemicals. Today there is a huge lack of data, methods and results and method development and studies should be given urgent priority. The aim of this paper was to develop and test an approach to calculate the potential environmental impacts of chemicals for a whole country using the E-PRTR (European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register) as a database and Sweden as an example. Swedish data from 2008 on emissions to air and water for 54 substances from point sources were retrieved from an open database. The data were transformed and aggregated using USEtox, a life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) method for calculating potential human toxicity and ecotoxicity, both from industrial emissions directly and after input–output analysis (IO analysis) to reallocate emissions to product categories. Zinc to air and water contributed most to human toxicity followed by mercury to air. The largest contribution by industry to potential human toxicity came from the metal industry, followed by the paper and paper product industry. For potential ecotoxicity, zinc, fluoranthene and copper contributed the most. The largest contributions by industry came from the paper and paper products manufacturing sector, followed by the basic metals manufacturing sector. The approach used here can be seen as the first step towards a chemical footprint for nations. By adding data from other countries and other sources, a more complete picture can be gained in line with other footprint calculations. Furthermore, diffuse emissions from, for example, transport or emissions of pesticides could also be added for a more holistic assessment. Since the area of chemicals is complicated, it is probably necessary to develop and use several indicators that complement each other. It is suggested that the approach outlined here could be useful in developing a method for establishing a national chemical footprint. - Highlights: • European Pollutant and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) used to develop indicators • Study combined emissions to air and water from E-PRTR with USEtox and IO analysis • Metals and especially zinc contributed most to potential human toxicity and ecotoxicity • Paper and metal industries contribute most to potential human toxicity and ecotoxicity • This new assessment could be used by many countries and can be developed further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

FleetREDI Dashboard Fleet DNA Data Summaries

Developing daily duty cycle summaries for every vehicle-day within NLR’s Fleet DNA database was a key output of the FleetREDI project. This project captured second-by-second GPS and controller area network (CAN) data on in-use medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicles and then summarized the data to provide an overview of vehicle operation throughout the United States. These data summaries were then displayed in aggregated formats on the FleetREDI dashboard, where users can explore the data within Fleet DNA. Fleet DNA’s clearinghouse of commercial fleet vehicle operating data helps vehicle manufacturers and developers optimize vehicle designs and helps fleet managers choose advanced technologies for their fleets. This online tool, which provides data summaries and visualizations similar to real-world "genetics" for medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicles, helps users understand the broad operational range of commercial vehicles across vocations and weight classes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Scaling Semantic Graph Databases in Size and Performance

In this paper we present SGEM, a full software system for accelerating large-scale semantic graph databases on commodity clusters. Unlike current approaches, SGEM addresses semantic graph databases by only employing graph methods at all the levels of the stack. On one hand, this allows exploiting the space efficiency of graph data structures and the inherent parallelism of graph algorithms. These features adapt well to the increasing system memory and core counts of modern commodity clusters. On the other hand, however, these systems are optimized for regular computation and batched data transfers, while graph methods usually are irregular and generate fine-grained data accesses with poor spatial and temporal locality. Our framework comprises a SPARQL to data parallel C compiler, a library of parallel graph methods and a custom, multithreaded runtime system. We introduce our stack, motivate its advantages with respect to other solutions and show how we solved the challenges posed by irregular behaviors. We present the result of our software stack on the Berlin SPARQL benchmarks with datasets up to 10 billion triples (a triple corresponds to a graph edge), demonstrating scaling in dataset size and in performance as more nodes are added to the cluster.

Aggregation↗

Learning to simulate high energy particle collisions from unlabeled data

In many scientific fields which rely on statistical inference, simulations are often used to map from theoretical models to experimental data, allowing scientists to test model predictions against experimental results. Experimental data is often reconstructed from indirect measurements causing the aggregate transformation from theoretical models to experimental data to be poorly-described analytically. Instead, numerical simulations are used at great computational cost. We introduce Optimal-Transport-based Unfolding and Simulation (OTUS), a fast simulator based on unsupervised machine-learning that is capable of predicting experimental data from theoretical models. Without the aid of current simulation information, OTUS trains a probabilistic autoencoder to transform directly between theoretical models and experimental data. Identifying the probabilistic autoencoder’s latent space with the space of theoretical models causes the decoder network to become a fast, predictive simulator with the potential to replace current, computationally-costly simulators. Here, we provide proof-of-principle results on two particle physics examples, Z-boson and top-quark decays, but stress that OTUS can be widely applied to other fields.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NBIC Biofeeds: A Digital Tool for Open Source Biosurveillance across Federal Agencies

The National Biosurveillance Integration Center (NBIC) is developing a scalable, flexible open source data collection, analysis, and dissemination tool to support biosurveillance operations by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and its federal interagency partners. The NBIC integrates, analyzes, and distributes key information about health and disease events to help ensure the nation’s responses are well-informed, save lives, and minimize economic impact. NBIC serves as a bridge between Federal, State, Local, Territorial, and Tribal entities to conduct biosurveillance across human, animal, plant, and environmental domains. The integration of information enables early warning and shared situational awareness of biological events to inform critical decisions directing response and recovery efforts. To meet its mission objectives, NBIC utilizes a variety of datasets, including open source information, to provide comprehensive coverage of biological events occurring across the globe. NBIC Biofeeds is a digital tool designed to improve the efficiency of reviewing and analyzing large volumes of open source reporting by biosurveillance analysts on a daily basis; moreover, the system provides a mechanism to disseminate tailored feeds allowing NBIC to better meet the specific information needs of individual, interagency partners. The tool is currently under development by the Department of Energy (DOE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)and it is in a testing and evaluation phase supported by NBIC biosurveillance subject matter experts. Integration with the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Biosurveillance Ecosystem(BSVE) is also underway. NBIC Biofeeds Version 1 is expected to be fully operational in Fiscal Year 2017. The PNNL is applying agile methodology to streamline the build of NBIC Biofeeds to specifications required for operational use by NBIC and its federal interagency partners. Biosurveillance, analytics, and system engineering subject matter experts provide guidance on the implementation of features in the tool to ensure functionality aligns with operational workflows and production support. PNNL is leveraging software from a previous government effort to repurpose the technology to meet NBIC needs. NBIC Biofeeds incorporates the open source, document-orientated MongoDB database to capture user- and system-generated metadata on hundreds of thousands of records, in part, to establish baselines to aid prospective and retrospective analysis on emerging biological events. NBIC Biofeeds integrates a biosurveillance taxonomy (uniquely developed by NBIC),which includes input from interagency partners to recognize critical characteristics of a biological event. In NBIC Biofeeds Version1, metadata capture of reported events is done manually by NBIC analysts; however, moving forward in Version 2, the tool will be further automated to flag significant reporting on biological events with a human remaining in the loop to confirm the validity of the system-generated tags. To serve as a one-stop tool for open source biosurveillance, NBIC Biofeeds automatically harvests information from thousands of websites, utilizing third party aggregators, paid subscriptions to data feeds, and scraping of high priority sources. Users can develop desired queries for automatic updating, leverage a unique review and curation mechanism, and further analyze data from topical, geographic, and temporal visualization features in the tool. To meet NBIC’s information sharing needs, the tool allows for design of tailored RSS feeds and electronic message-based delivery of analysis on biological events, intended for recipients in the government with unique missions around human, animal, plant, and environmental health. Through current testing and evaluation – underway by biosurveillance subject matter experts – NBIC Biofeeds is demonstrating value in supporting open source biosurveillance by the Center for more rapid recognition and sharing of key event characteristics. Centralizing access and analysis of this data set into a single system is increasing the efficiency of daily, global biosurveillance, while enhancing the value of information identified through use of the querying, curation, and production support features in the tool.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗