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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

JCL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource and Deployment Potential

There is growing interest in deploying new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) to meet grid needs for flexibility, reliability, and resiliency. This presentation describes how NLR resource assessment, cost modeling, and capacity expansion modeling are used to identify technical and economic PSH deployment potential and support industry decision-making on PSH investments. NLR's open data and tools demonstrate the vast technical potential of PSH on the order of 80 TW, and modeling shows economic PSH deployment under an attractive cost-value proposition.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Logistics of a Lunar Based Solar Power Satellite Scenario

A logistics system comprised of two orbital stations for the support of a 500 GW space power satellite scenario in a geostationary orbit was investigated in this study. A subsystem mass model, a mass flow model and a life cycle cost model were developed. The results regarding logistics cost and burden rates show that the transportation cost contributed the most (96%) to the overall cost of the scenario. The orbital stations at a geostationary and at a lunar orbit contributed 4 % to that cost.

Melissopoulos, Stefanos↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid

Climate impact assessment for power systems has tended to focus on the effects of water availability on generation without explicitly considering how these impacts propagate through the interconnected grid to affect generation in other locations. We investigate the impact of projected water availability on the operations of the contemporary Western U.S. power grid, focusing specifically on regional interdependencies. Hydrologic simulations derived from three GCMs (CCSM4, INMCM4 and GFDL-CM3) and two radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to force a large-scale, distributed water management model (MOSART-WM), which translates water availability into power generation constraints at hydropower plants and water-dependent thermo-electric plants. Power system dynamics are evaluated using the production cost model PLEXOS. We find that the inter-regional connections across the Western U.S. electricity infrastructure are key in managing drastic variations in regional water availability. Net generation in the Northwest and Northern California is substantially sensitive to local water availability. Generation from the Desert Southwest emerges as a critical resource to compensate for variations in water availability in those regions. Climate change impacts on Northwestern water availability therefore drive future changes in other regions’ generation and regional power flows. The large inter-annual hydrological variability of Northern California exacerbates grid stress arising from long-term changes in water availability in the Northwest. While the regional power flow directions seem insensitive to long-term variations in water availability, the analysis highlights the need to consider other compounding regional factors such as changes in Southern California net load or changes in regional fuel prices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1997

Application of artificial intelligence (AI) concepts to the development of space flight parts approval model

A cost effective model which uses the artificial intelligence techniques in the selection and approval of parts is presented. The knowledge which is acquired from the specialists for different part types are represented in a knowledge base in the form of rules and objects. The parts information is stored separately in a data base and is isolated from the knowledge base. Validation, verification and performance issues are highlighted.

Krishnan, G. S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Integration of Predictive Models for Manufacturing and Structural Performance of Carbon Fiber Composites in Automotive Applications (Final Report)

The goal of this project is to develop integrated, state-of-the-art, computational modeling tools based on an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methodology that are critically needed to enable structural carbon fiber (CF) applications in automobiles. These tools are designed to predict the manufacturing and structural performance of CF composites, including stochastic effects. During the first phase of the project, the manufacturing and structural performance tools, including a stochastic driver, were developed, calibrated, and validated against coupon and component level test results. For this project, from the manufacturing side, the development efforts were focused on high-pressure resin transfer molding (HP-RTM), a potentially game-changing manufacturing technology that is capable of reaching the 3-5-minute cycle time that is necessary for volume manufacturing of composites. On the structural performance side, the crashworthiness of CF structures was studied. Accordingly, computational tools were developed and validated. The resulting differences between the numerical predictions and the experimental results in the first phase of the project were required to be less than 15%. During the second phase of the project, the manufacturing and performance tools were integrated by mapping the manufacturing outcomes (e.g., fiber angles, residual stresses, degree of cure, and defects) into the structural models. Also, using the tools developed in this project, an automotive assembly currently manufactured in steel (2016 GM Malibu) was redesigned to be manufactured using advanced CF composites with the objective of comparing the performance of the CF assembly with the developed ICME model predictions. The weight, performance and cost of the CF assembly were compared with the baseline steel assembly as well. The CF underbody design was shown to be 30% lighter than the corresponding steel design. The CF underbody assembly withstood the side pole impact with less than half the intrusion for the steel assembly. Excellent correlations within 10% for both peak impact load and intrusion were observed between the numerical predictions and experimental results. Based on the cost models developed in the project, the cost increase per Kg saved was determined to be $22. The project team has prepared a total of 28 publications in various journals and conferences and broadly communicated the project results for the benefit of the composite industry. The project team has also prepared a total of 10 patent applications that were submitted to the US Patent and Trademark office.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1991

The use of activity-based cost estimation as a management tool for cultural change

It will be shown that the greatest barrier to American exploration of the planet Mars is not the development of the technology needed to deliver humans and return them safely to earth. Neither is it the cost of such an undertaking, as has been previously suggested, although certainly, such a venture may not be inexpensive by some measures. The predicted costs of exploration have discouraged serious political dialog on the subject. And, in fact, even optimistic projections of the NASA budget do not contain the resources required, under the existing development and management paradigm, for human space exploration programs. It will be demonstrated that the perception of the costs of such a venture, and the cultural responses to the perceptions are factors inhibiting American exploration of the moon and the planet Mars. Cost models employed in the aerospace industry today correctly mirror the history of past space programs, and as such, are representative of the existing management and development paradigms. However, if, under this current paradigm no major exploration programs are feasible, then cost analysis methods based in the past may not have great utility in exploring the needed cultural changes. This paper explores the use of a new type of model, the activity based cost model, which will treat management style as an input variable, in a sense providing a tool whereby a complete, affordable program might be designed, including both the technological and management aspects.

Mandell, Humboldt↗
NASA NTRS1990

Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.

Dean, ED↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost of Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion to Fabricate a Molten Salt-to-Supercritial Carbon Dioxide Heat Exchanger for Concentrating Solar Power

Advances in manufacturing technologies and materials are crucial to the commercial deployment of energy technologies. We present the case of concentrating solar power (CSP) with molten salt (MS) thermal storage, where low-cost, high-efficiency heat exchangers (HXs) are needed to achieve cost competitiveness. Here, the materials required to tolerate the extreme operating conditions in CSP systems make it difficult or infeasible to produce them using conventional manufacturing processes. Although it is technically possible to produce HXs with adequate performance using additive manufacturing, specifically laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), here we assess whether doing so is cost-effective. We describe a process-based cost model (PBCM) to estimate the cost of fabricating a MS-to-supercritical carbon dioxide HX using LPBF. The PBCM is designed to identify modifications to designs, process choices, and manufacturing innovations that have the greatest effect on manufacturing cost. Our PBCM identified HX design and LPBF process modifications that reduced projected HX cost from $\$750$ per kilo-Watt thermal (kW-th) ($\$8$ /cm 3 ) to $\$350$ /kW-th ($\$6/$ cm 3 ) using currently available LPBF technology, and down to $\$220$ /kW-th ($\$4$ /cm 3 ) with improvements in LPBF technology that are likely to be achieved in the near term. The PBCM also informed a redesign of the HX design that reduced projected costs to $\$140$ –160/kW-th ($\$3$ /cm 3 ).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benefit Analysis of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems with High Renewable Energy Shares

The integration of high shares of variable renewable energy raises challenges for the reliability and cost-effectiveness of power systems. The value of long-duration energy storage, which helps address variability in renewable energy supply across days and seasons, is poised to grow significantly as power systems shift to larger shares of variable generation such as wind and solar. This study explores the system-level services and associated benefits of long-duration energy storage on the 2050 Western Interconnection (WI). The operation of the future WI system with 85% renewable penetration is simulated using a two-stage production cost model. The impact of long duration energy storage on systemwide operations is examined for the 2050 WI system, using a range of round-trip efficiencies corresponding to four different energy storage technologies. The analysis projects the energy storage dispatch profile, system-wide production cost savings (from both diurnal and seasonal operation), and impacts on generation mix, and change in renewable generation curtailment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid Open-Air Processing of Low-Cost Perovskite Solar Modules

We report an industrially relevant approach to both scalable and fast open-air perovskite photovoltaic (PV) module production. This work resolves some of the most formidable barriers to module-level scaling that the perovskite community has been facing. Key advances include scalable large-area spray deposition, new monolithic integration scribing techniques, advanced photoluminescence characterization, and reproducible high-throughput manufacturability. Our rapid spray processing techniques enabled the highest perovskite PV efficiency produced in open-air. Innovations in scribing techniques enabled the first single-source laser process to achieve perovskite module monolithic integration and technoeconomic analysis led to a comprehensive cost model for perovskite module manufacturing. We report significant progress in reducing perovskite manufacturing costs necessary to potentially compete with incumbent Si-based PV for utility-scale power generation.

cost modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Costs and Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in the O'ahu Region

The State of Hawai'i has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2045, and is well suited to become the first state to achieve this goal due to its relatively small load, high electricity prices, heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, and favorable conditions for wind and solar. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management contracted NREL to conduct a cost and feasibility study to provide information to decision makers on Hawai'i about the viability of floating offshore wind to be a part of the 100% RPS. We used NREL's Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer (ORCA) spatial cost model to evaluate the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) in the region surrounding O'ahu as this is the island with the highest energy demand. The ORCA results showed that LCOE could range from around $\$$83 MWh to $\$$194 MWh for commercial operation dates in 2019 but has the potential to decrease to $\$$48 MWh - $\$$109 MWh by 2032 due to maturing global supply chains, increasing turbine rating, and new technological innovations. These costs are expected to be competitive with global floating wind costs in the early 2030s. The strong wind resource, proximity to infrastructure on land, and benign metocean conditions can potentially compensate for the logistical complexities of installing projects in Hawai'i far from mainland supply chains if sufficient investments are made to develop ports, grid infrastructure, and workforce on O'ahu to support the construction and operation of offshore wind projects. In addition to the cost results, this report also discusses the likely technologies that would comprise floating wind projects near O'ahu, the existing infrastructure available to projects, unique conditions facing offshore wind in the region such as exposure to hurricanes and limits on allowable export cable capacity, newly developed wind resource data sets for the region, and local stakeholder perspectives on offshore wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Alternative Operations and Renewable Energy Deployment on Columbia River Hydropower

The Columbia River Treaty Tribes in the Pacific Northwest - the Nez Perce, Umatilla, Warm Springs, and Yakama - hold treaty-reserved fishing rights for the Columbia River, one of the world's most productive salmon rivers and a critical resource for these tribes. However, the tribes have expressed that current operating regimes of hydropower dams throughout the Columbia River Basin (CRB) do not fully account for tribal fishing rights and have negatively impacted fish populations. Four tribes acting together through the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC)'s 2022 Energy Vision stated that current power system models often do not fully account for the many constraints faced by hydropower facilities in the CRB. As the deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) like solar and wind continues to increase, power system flexibility will become increasingly important. As a result, there is a growing need to better understand the true capabilities of the hydropower generation fleet while accurately accounting for ecological constraints (Northwest Power and Conservation Council 2022). Understanding hydropower's role in a future grid with a higher share of VRE can inform water resources planning to address ecological needs. The goal of this study is to examine the impacts of alternative hydropower operation rules and weather variability on hydropower generation and grid operations in VRE and transmission infrastructure deployment scenarios. The study evaluates how hydropower scheduling practices can reduce ecological impacts to the region's salmon populations. More specifically, the study examines the impact of today's dam water release rules (called "adjusted base water rules" in this study) and new, ecologically informed water release rules (called "ecosystem water rules" in this study) on two VRE scenarios (current renewable energy levels and higher renewable energy levels) using six weather years for each scenario (2008-2013). CRITFC developed the ecosystem water rules, which capture a portion of the changes they recommend for CRB hydropower operations. These analyses use a water resource planning model (OASIS) and a production cost model (PLEXOS) to simulate CRB reservoir cascade and Western Interconnection power grid operation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1996

Improved Supportability Analysis

The University of Dayton is pleased to submit this report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Langley Research Center, which updates recently developed computer models and data bases used in determining operational capabilities and support requirements during the conceptual design of proposed space systems. This research has resulted in some revisions of the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model, the development of several electronic data bases which capture the original data used in the R&M model, the collection of more recent R&M aircraft data and the integration of new shuttle data into the electronic data base and the R&M model. Descriptions of the model updates and of the electronic data bases are the subject of this report. Other details concerning the R&M model and the O&S costing model may be found in previous reports accomplished under this grant (NASA Research Grant NAG- 1-1327) which are referenced in paragraph 1.3.

Ebeling, Charles E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Summary of Space Environment Magnetometer and Particle Replacement Experiment (SEMPRE) Study

As part of the GOES-R series follow on architecture study following the NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture (NSOSA) study, a study team evaluated the feasibility of accommodating the GOES in-situ instruments (Magnetometer and Particle Detectors) on a dedicated spacecraft with no impact to the overall baseline mission cost assuming two large observatories. The accommodations cost on a primary operational type observatory are non-negligible requiring: a large non-magnetic boom to reduce the impact of the spacecraft interference on the magnetometer; and strict contamination control and magnetic cleanliness to prevent magnetic contamination near the magnetometers. These, along with the additional interface complexities greatly increase the cost of larger spacecraft by extending integration time with a large marching army. By contrast, a dedicated mission provides flexibility in location and refresh rate not afforded when these sensors are launched as secondary payloads. This study performed an informal industry survey of small form-factor instruments currently flying or in process of being developed. The study identified three potential particle detector suites and multiple magnetometers that will satisfy the requirements while having low enough volume and mass to allow accommodation on a rideshare class spacecraft. Using the largest of the identified particle detector suites, the Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Design Lab developed a design for a rideshare spacecraft that will accommodate the particle detector suite and magnetometer. The cost of the spacecraft, based on multiple cost models, is comparable to the cost of accommodating the magnetometer and particle detector suite on two (East and West) larger main observatories.

Todirita, Monica↗
NASA NTRS1986

Cost and Performance Model for Photovoltaic Systems

Lifetime cost and performance (LCP) model assists in assessment of design options for photovoltaic systems. LCP is simulation of performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with photovoltaic power systems connected to electric-utility grid. LCP provides user with substantial flexibility in specifying technical and economic environment of application.

Borden, C. S.↗