Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “convergence rate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18

Deep unsupervised learning using spike-timing-dependent plasticity

Abstract Spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) is an unsupervised learning mechanism for spiking neural networks that has received significant attention from the neuromorphic hardware community. However, scaling such local learning techniques to deeper networks and large-scale tasks has remained elusive. In this work, we investigate a Deep-STDP framework where a rate-based convolutional network, that can be deployed in a neuromorphic setting, is trained in tandem with pseudo-labels generated by the STDP clustering process on the network outputs. We achieve 24.56% higher accuracy and 3.5 × faster convergence speed at iso-accuracy on a 10-class subset of the Tiny ImageNet dataset in contrast to a k -means clustering approach.

Lu, Sen↗

A combined experimental and numerical approach that eliminates the non-uniqueness associated with the Johnson-Cook parameters obtained using inverse methods

Abstract Johnson-Cook constitutive model is a commonly used material model for machining simulations. The model includes five parameters that capture the initial yield stress, strain-hardening, strain-rate hardening, and thermal softening behavior of the material. These parameters are difficult to determine using experiments since the conditions observed during machining (such as high strain-rates of the order of $$10^5$$ 10 5 /sec - $$10^6$$ 10 6 /sec) are challenging to recreate in the laboratory. To address this problem, several researchers have recently proposed inverse approaches where a combination of experiments and analytical models are used to predict the Johnson-Cook parameters. The errors between the measured cutting forces, chip thicknesses and temperatures and those predicted by analytical models are minimized and the parameters are determined. In this work, it is shown that only two of the five Johnson-Cook parameters can be determined uniquely using inverse approaches. Two different algorithms, namely, Adaptive Memory Programming for Global Optimization (AMPGO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), are used for this purpose. The extended Oxley’s model is used as the analytical tool for optimization. For determining a parameter’s value, a large range for each parameter is provided as an input to the algorithms. The algorithms converge to several different sets of values for the five Johnson-Cook parameters when all the five parameters are considered as unknown in the optimization algorithm. All of these sets, however, yield the same chip shape and cutting forces in FEM simulations. Further analyses show that only the strain-rate and thermal softening parameters can be determined uniquely and the three parameters present in the strain-hardening term of the Johnson-Cook model cannot be determined uniquely using the inverse method. A combined experimental and numerical approach is proposed to eliminate this determine all parameters uniquely.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Flow and Performance Characterization of Rotating Detonation Combustor Integrated with Various Convergent Nozzles

In this study, convergent nozzles of various area ratios (ARs) are used downstream of an annular rotating detonation combustor (RDC) to increase the operating pressure and approach sonic conditions at the nozzle throat. Reactant methane and oxygen-enriched air (67% [Formula: see text] and 33% [Formula: see text] by volume) are supplied in counterflow arrangement from two separate plenums located at the base of the RDC annulus. Based on experimentation, a total mass flow rate of [Formula: see text] was chosen to achieve stable, single-wave mode RDC operation for all test cases, allowing for one-to-one comparisons. The internal performance of the RDC was characterized by ion probes and pressure measurements (wall static and oscillating) in supply plenums and across different axial locations of the combustor. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) at 100 kHz was utilized to measure axial and circumferential velocity components within a two-dimensional region of interest located downstream of the converging nozzle exit. Results show higher internal performance of the RDC with increasing AR of the convergent nozzle. PIV measurement illustrated that the flow oscillation amplitudes decrease with an increasing AR of the converging nozzle. The exit flow contained significant nonuniformity and unsteadiness even with a converging nozzle of AR 2.0, indicating incomplete choking of the flow at the nozzle throat.

Engineering↗

Forecasting Dynamic Line Rating with Spatial Variation Considerations

Dynamic line rating (DLR) is a technology that allows the ampacity of an electrical conductor to be calculated using real-time or forecasted weather conditions. Historically, the ampacity of a conductor has been determined using a static line rating method which assumes conservative weather assumptions. Therefore, not only can DLR give a more accurate measurement of the true ampacity of a conductor, but it can also increase its ampacity during weather conditions with greater thermal mitigations. The two primary cooling factors in the ampacity calculations are wind speed and direction. In complex terrain, wind speed and direction can have large variations over short distances. Therefore, accurately identifying the limiting span of a transmission line requires high spatial resolution of the wind along its path. One solution is to install dense weather stations along their path, though this can become costly over long distances. Therefore, researchers have investigated the use of Computation Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations to accurately compute the wind field along the path of a transmission line and use these results to identify the limiting section of the conductor. This work presents a case study that evaluates the coupling of CFD simulations and forecasted weather simulations using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model points over a 2-year span within a region in south eastern Idaho. The primary goal of the work is the evaluation of the number of HRRR model points used, i.e., weather stations, along the path of the line and the accuracy of the resulting ampacity. This was done using 4, 10, 17, 26, and 35 HRRR model points along two transmission line paths. The results indicate that as the number of model points are increased, the DLR ampacity of the lines decrease, yet converge as more points are added and demonstrate little change with additional HRRR points. It is expected that these results can help transmission line operators identify the number of weather stations that must be installed when coupled with CFD simulations and DLR ampacity to ensure accurate ratings and safe operations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Forecasting Dynamic Line Rating with Spatial Variation Considerations

Dynamic line rating (DLR) is a technology that allows the ampacity of an electrical conductor to be calculated using real-time or forecasted weather conditions. Historically, the ampacity of a conductor has been determined using a static line rating method which assumes conservative weather assumptions. Therefore, not only can DLR give a more accurate measurement of the true ampacity of a conductor, but it can also increase its ampacity during weather conditions with greater thermal mitigations. The two primary cooling factors in the ampacity calculations are wind speed and direction. In complex terrain, wind speed and direction can have large variations over short distances. Therefore, accurately identifying the limiting span of a transmission line requires high spatial resolution of the wind along its path. One solution is to install dense weather stations along their path, though this can become costly over long distances. Therefore, researchers have investigated the use of Computation Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations to accurately compute the wind field along the path of a transmission line and use these results to identify the limiting section of the conductor. This work presents a case study that evaluates the coupling of CFD simulations and forecasted weather simulations using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model points over a 2-year span within a region in south eastern Idaho. The primary goal of the work is the evaluation of the number of HRRR model points used, i.e., weather stations, along the path of the line and the accuracy of the resulting DLR ampacity. This was done using 4, 10, 17, 26, and 35 HRRR model points along two transmission line paths. The results indicate that as the number of model points are increased, the DLR ampacity of the lines decrease, yet converge as more points are added and demonstrate little change with additional HRRR points. It is expected that these results can help transmission line operators identify the number of weather stations that must be installed when coupled with CFD simulations and DLR ampacity to ensure accurate ratings and safe operations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Eulerian thermo-mechanical simulations of heterogeneous solid propellants using an approximate projection method

We present a mathematical model that describes thermo-mechanical deformations and thermal gradients on the unsteady burning of a heterogeneous solid propellant. A scaling study shows that the deformations in solid at combustion timescales can be treated as quasi-static. The resulting thermo-mechanical formulation is formulated on a Cartesian grid and makes use of a weak form of Chorin-type projection method to deal with large difference in shear modulus of constituent materials. Further, a one-dimensional verification study is carried out by comparing numerical simulations with those of an analytical model. In addition, convergence studies for a two-dimensional propellant sandwich configuration are presented for the stress, velocity, and reference map components. Finally, simulations are carried out for a two-dimensional random propellant pack and the time-averaged burn rate and strains are reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response using a degradation-aware Bayesian Optimization-Mixed-Integer Linear Programming framework

The increasing integration of renewable energy and rising electricity demand highlight the importance of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response. Unlike prior approaches that overlook operational impacts on degradation, this study proposes a Bayesian Optimization–Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for optimal battery energy storage system sizing. In this framework, Mixed Integer Linear Programming determines short-term scheduling while a calibrated electrochemical model iteratively evaluates degradation. The central hypothesis is that the framework can efficiently identify optimal sizes that yield realistic and economically robust outcomes. The method is tested across three scenarios: peak shaving, peak shaving with energy-reduction demand response, and peak shaving with power-reduction demand response. Results show that the framework converge to the optimum within 20 iterations out of 150 possible sizes. Under baseline conditions, the framework consistently selects the smallest feasible system, minimizing unnecessary degradation costs from oversized storage. Sensitivity analyses reveal that larger systems are favored as demand rates or incentives increase. Comparisons of demand response programs indicate that power-reduction demand response offers greater economic benefits than energy-reduction demand response, although demand savings from peak shaving remain the dominant contributor to overall performance. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework balances computational tractability with degradation fidelity, identifies critical economic thresholds for investment, and offers a practical, flexible tool to guide industrial stakeholders in cost-effective battery energy storage system deployment.

Batteries↗

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗

Development of the Intelligent, Preventive Infrared (IR) Inspection System Housed in Hybrid Robotic Platforms

Robots and robotic systems that are designed for inspection, environmental study, and health and safety aid are becoming an increasing necessity. However, there is a number of challenges that accompany robots that are designed for these specific applications. These challenges include: navigating compact, enclosed spaces, travelling over multiple terrains and large obstacles, using the proper sensing and detection methods to assess an environment, and the use of lightweight and durable materials. The robotic platforms currently in development look at all of these challenges and attempt to overcome them. These designs specific use of hybrid robotic platforms, or platform that utilizes soft and rigid materials, allows for a more flexible platform and makes environments more navigable. To further improve the navigation of the platforms and environmental assessment, a novel infrared detection system is housed in the platforms to create a robot that can be used for the applications listed above and more. Objectives: Further develop two types of robotic platforms that utilize additive manufacturing, soft materials, and rigid materials. Continue the development of an intelligent and inhibitory infrared detection system based on an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm. Continued study and fabrication of active soft materials designed for both sensing and actuation in hybrid robotic systems. Improve additive manufacturing fabrication to design rigid and semi-rigid components for hybrid robotic platforms. Transformable Wheel Robotic Platform: The chassis, wheels, tires and inspection system housing use different additive manufacturing techniques for fabrication. Continued work with additive manufacturing has lead to studies in metal-based printing and modular design and manufacturing. The new platform design with integrated electrical component printed. This will allow integration of the sensor housing onto the platform. Electrical components are being tested for battery life and performance. To improve this performance, such as integration of Lithium Polymer (LiPo) batteries. Snake Robotic Platform: The main focus of the development has centered around liquid-based soft actuators. That act on the principles of electrostatic and hydraulic actuation. A liquid dielectric sits between two compliant electrodes, contained by a flexible polymer shell. The electrodes and film gradually collapse toward each other from one corner of the electrode to the other. When the electrodes and film close together, a majority of the fluid is pushed into the area not covered by an electrode. A thin layer of the liquid dielectric remains between the electrode. The actuators will be stacked to cause large displacement, and move the linkages. The chassis of this platform uses purely additively manufactured linkages. Intelligent, Preventive IR Inspection System: Development of the AI for the system has lead to using a Scikit-Learn which assists in creating predictive models based on Regression, clustering, classification etc. To improve the infrared thermometry for low emissivity sources, work on the fabrication of a tandem photoconductive infrared thermometer was a main focus. Distance-Voltage-Temperature response data has been collected in the range of 7 cm - 100 cm and 200-400 deg. C. Modifications were made to the existing test bench to have a better control over the data. Automated data collection was realized using a Python code and an Arduino controlled stepper motor to increase the sample rate. A protective enclosure has been built around the setup to minimize the effect of the environment on the measurements. To better predict temperature, different AI models are being optimized. The regression model, LARS showed a high accuracy but had convergence issues and only works for the current test set-up. Results: The Transformable Wheel Robot has developed into a more flexible and modular platform. With the improvements to the current work, effort on the tire or soft gripper design been a large focus. The soft grippers will be interchange able to allow for increased performance in identified terrain types. The development of the liquid-based actuators allows the snake robotic platform to achieve the goals of being flexible and able to navigate confined spaces. However, there is room for improvement. Optimization work is currently being done in COMSOL Multiphysics. With the current IR system set-up the LARS model perfectly predicts the data; however, considering the mobility aspect of the project other models will allow for an optimized system. Testing of other model types is currently being done.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Native Natural circulation in VERA

This work seeks to introduce a native natural circulation solver to VERA's thermohydraulics capabilities. This work begins with initial investigations into the viability of such a solver by determining the fundamental equations as well as necessary inputs. The method was then implemented in the form of a Python script coupled to CTF which was compared to TRACE. Once viability of the natural circulation solver was established, it was then implemented natively in MPACT for use with previously created simplified thermohydraulics solvers. This new implementation of the native natural circulation solver in MPACT is then tested for single physics problems for both a BWR and PWR single channel model and compared to TRACE where it shows an error of about 30% for BWRs and about 15% for PWRs. The solver is additionally tested for NuScale based models where it demonstrates an error to the reported flow rate of about 10%, resulting in an eigenvalue error of only 138 pcm when comparing fixed flow rate multiphysics runs. Finally, the solver is tested in multiphysics systems for a small PWR assembly, a small BWR assembly, and a full core approximate model of the NuScale design. In these multiphysics runs, it demonstrates no impact on multiphysics convergence stability, as well as negligible impact on runtimes. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The fate of liquid crystal topological defects on chemically patterned surfaces during phase transitions

Controlling topological defects in liquid crystals (LCs) is an essential element in the development of areas such as directed self-assembly and micropatterning materials. However, during the phase transition on confined patterned surfaces, how the morphologies in one liquid crystalline phase change from deformations or defects into another phase is much less known. Here, we examine the fate of defects in a LC confined on a patterned surface during smectic-A–nematic and nematic–isotropic phase transitions, using experiments and simulation analyses. Upon heating from smectic-A to nematic, a Toric focal conical domain (TFCD) melts into a +1 converging boojum defect, which then transitioned into a concentric configuration as temperature increases, attributed to a steeper decrease of the bend and twist modulus compared to splay modulus. During cooling, TFCDs are developed from two distinct pathways depending on the cooling rates. Our continuum simulation recapitulates these transformations and provides elastic constant-based explanations for the two pathways. Although the phase transition pathways of defects are independent of the geometry of the confined patterns, the arrangement of FCDs is highly dependent on the size and shape of the patterns. Finally, taken together, this simple approach offers promising opportunities for tuning the micro- or nano-patterning of topological defects in liquid crystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An open-source hybrid unstructured mesh - CAD fusion multiphysics analysis workflow in SALAMANDER

Plasma facing components in fusion devices will endure extreme neutron and heat fluxes. To facilitate their design using simulation tools, the open-source Fusion Module, Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) framework is being developed to model these components with a high-fidelity multi-physics multi-dimensional approach. It can iteratively resolve couplings between all the physics at play, from neutron radiation, to thermomechanics, to near-wall plasma dynamics. This framework is based on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), which is developed by a collaboration of US National Laboratories since 2008, for advanced nuclear, geomechanics simulations and other applications. FENIX couples numerous simulation tools, including OpenMC, the Tritium Migration Analysis Program v8, the NekRS CFD software, and most MOOSE modules. For the coupling of radiation transport and other physics, FENIX supports a hybrid workflow between Computer Assisted Design (CAD) and unstructured mesh geometries. The CAD can be generated from skinning the unstructured mesh, to enable a coarse geometry for efficient particle transport, but still resolving the local material compositions and temperature gradients. Neutron transport is performed using DAGMC on the CAD, and Cardinal, integrated in FENIX, maps tallied quantities, such as the heat deposition or the tritium generation rates, from a tally volumetric mesh to the other physics’ unstructured mesh. This coupling was exercised on a simplified tokamak geometry, coupling neutron transport with the heat conduction equation, and on a monoblock divertor problem, coupling additionally with tritium migration. Mesh convergence studies highlight the importance of the mapping conservativeness. Coupling with thermo-mechanics is further enabled by the generalization of the approach to moving meshes. The presentation will include these coupled analysis as well as an update on status of the FENIX framework.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Diverse signatures of convergent evolution in cactus-associated yeasts

Many distantly related organisms have convergently evolved traits and lifestyles that enable them to live in similar ecological environments. However, the extent of phenotypic convergence evolving through the same or distinct genetic trajectories remains an open question. Here, we leverage a comprehensive dataset of genomic and phenotypic data from 1,049 yeast species in the subphylum Saccharomycotina (Kingdom Fungi, Phylum Ascomycota) to explore signatures of convergent evolution in cactophilic yeasts, ecological specialists associated with cacti. We inferred that the ecological association of yeasts with cacti arose independently approximately 17 times. Using a machine learning–based approach, we further found that cactophily can be predicted with 76% accuracy from both functional genomic and phenotypic data. The most informative feature for predicting cactophily was thermotolerance, which we found to be likely associated with altered evolutionary rates of genes impacting the cell envelope in several cactophilic lineages. We also identified horizontal gene transfer and duplication events of plant cell wall–degrading enzymes in distantly related cactophilic clades, suggesting that putatively adaptive traits evolved independently through disparate molecular mechanisms. Notably, we found that multiple cactophilic species and their close relatives have been reported as emerging human opportunistic pathogens, suggesting that the cactophilic lifestyle—and perhaps more generally lifestyles favoring thermotolerance—might preadapt yeasts to cause human disease. This work underscores the potential of a multifaceted approach involving high-throughput genomic and phenotypic data to shed light onto ecological adaptation and highlights how convergent evolution to wild environments could facilitate the transition to human pathogenicity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

New insights on wind turbine wakes from large‐eddy simulation: Wake contraction, dual nature, and temperature effects

Abstract Large‐eddy simulation (LES) has been adopted to study wind turbine wakes because it can capture fine‐scale details of turbulent wind flows and interactions with wind turbines. Here, we use the LES version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with an actuator disk model to gain insights on several wake effects that have been traditionally difficult to measure. The first finding is that the wake has a “dual nature,” meaning that the wind speed deficit behaves differently from the added turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and the two are not co‐located in space. For example, the wind speed deficit peaks at hub height and reaches the ground within 8D (D is the rotor diameter), but added TKE peaks near the rotor tip and generally remains aloft. Second, temperature changes near the ground are driven by the added TKE in the rotor area and by atmospheric stability. The combination of these two factors determines the sign and intensity of the vertical heat flux divergence below the rotor, with convergence and warming associated with stable conditions and weak divergence and modest cooling with unstable conditions. Third, wakes do not expand indefinitely, as suggested by similarity theory applied to the wind speed deficit, but eventually stop expanding and actually contract, at different rates depending on atmospheric stability. The implication of these findings is that, in order to study wakes, it is not sufficient to focus on wind speed deficit alone, because TKE is also important and yet behaves differently from the wind speed deficit.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Data-driven chemical kinetic reaction mechanism for F-24 jet fuel ignition

A data-driven chemical kinetic mechanism for the military version of Jet A, F-24, is developed for numerical simulations of the ignition process. The main purpose of this study is to obtain a practical F-24 mechanism across wide temperature and equivalence ratio ranges, with a particular focus on the negative temperature coefficient and low temperature regions. The new mechanism (ARLMech-HC-F24) is based on the HyChem model of a similar fuel and optimized using a micro-genetic algorithm against an experimental ignition delay data set of the target fuel. The development and optimization processes include reaction selection, population creation, shuffled tournament implementation based on a merit function, and child-individual creation for the next generation. Several techniques and parameters are proposed to generate an accurate mechanism through an efficient process. The newly introduced data-driven mechanism based on these techniques shows better merit value convergence and represents the ignition behavior more accurately than that without the techniques. This practical mechanism is suitable for the numerical simulations of the F-24 or Jet A ignition problem, and the suggested strategies can be employed in similar problems of rate coefficients estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Active- and transfer-learning applied to microscale-macroscale coupling to simulate viscoelastic flows

Active- and transfer-learning are applied to microscale dynamics of polymer flows for the multiscale discovery of effective constitutive approximations required in viscoelastic flow simulation. The result is macroscopic rheology directly connected to a microstructural model. Micro and macroscale simulations are adaptively coupled by means of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to run the expensive microscale computations only as necessary. This multiscale method is demonstrated with flows of a polymer solution as a model system. At the microscale level dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) is employed to model the fluid as a suspension of bead-spring micro-structures subjected to steady shear flow. The results yield the non-Newtonian viscosity and the first normal stress difference at strain rates as training data used in a GPR model. DPD parameters are calibrated with respect to experimental data for a real polymer solution. Compliance with these data requires adjustment of the DPD model's cutoff radius, which then becomes a function of the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. The FENE-P model is chosen for the macroscale description using the spectral element method (SEM) to simulate channel flow and flow past a circular cylinder. The DPD results at the lowest possible shear strain rate yield an estimate of the zero-shear rate viscosity, which allows the initiation of the macroscale flow by SEM as a Newtonian fluid. The resulting strain-rate field is surveyed to determine additional shear strain rate sampling points for the DPD system. This new information allows an initial fitting of parameters of the constitutive equation followed by new SEM simulations at the macroscale. Additionally, guided by active-learning GPR to select new sampling points, this process continues until convergence is achieved. The effectiveness of this new simulation paradigm for viscoelastic flows is tested with different macroscale operating conditions. The effective closure learned in the channel simulation is then transferred directly to the flow past a circular cylinder at low Reynolds number, where the results show that only two additional DPD simulations are required to achieve a satisfactory constitutive model. With an increase of the Reynolds number, the active-learning scheme automatically detects the inaccuracy of the learned constitutive model, and initiates additional DPD simulations for the extra data needed to once again close the microscale-macroscale coupled system. This new paradigm of active- and transfer-learning for multiscale modeling is readily applicable to other microscale-macroscale coupled simulations of complex fluids and other materials. Furthermore, the coupling between microscale and macroscale solvers can be seamlessly implemented with our open source multiscale universal interface (MUI) library.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗

Implementation of an Orificing Optimization Algorithm in the DASSH Subchannel Analysis Code

The Ducted Assembly Steady-State Heat transfer code (DASSH) performs full-core subchannel thermal hydraulics calculations in liquid metal fast reactors. One of the applications of subchannel codes is to optimize coolant flow orificing. As a design activity, the primary task is to determine the best way to divide assemblies into groups and distribute coolant flow rates among them. This report documents an algorithm implemented in DASSH to automatically optimize coolant orificing. Over the course of multiple iterations, DASSH determines the orifice grouping and flow distribution that minimizes peak coolant, clad, or fuel temperatures across all timesteps for a user-specified number of assembly groups. The total coolant flow rate in the reactor is constrained to achieve the specified core-average outlet temperature. The flow rate to each orifice group may also be constrained by the allowable pressure drop. The distribution of coolant flow among groups is accelerated using a predictor-corrector algorithm based on interpolated results from single-assembly parametric calculations. The assembly orificing grouping is initially predicted based on assembly power but can be refined if results demonstrate that an assembly would fit better in another group. The algorithm is demonstrated with two case studies. The first is a simple model for a reactor core consisting of just fuel assemblies; the pin power distributions are specified to create a situation where the initial assembly grouping prediction is suboptimal. This example is used to describe the initial grouping, demonstrate convergence over multiple iterations, and highlight the impact of regrouping. Then, the algorithm is applied to minimize peak clad and fuel temperatures in an example sodium-cooled fast reactor, the Versatile Test Reactor. The multicycle optimization confirms prior calculations for the reference core design. The example highlights how optimizing for different peak temperatures affects the results and demonstrates the use of the pressure drop constraint to limit the maximum flow rate.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗