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This report summarizes the activities and key findings of the project team occurring during Phase 1 (August 2014 – October 2015) of the Tularosa Basin Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Project.
Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.
The vibrational self-consistent field (VSCF) method yields anharmonic states and spectra for molecular vibrations, and it serves as the starting point for more sophisticated correlated-vibration methods. Convergence of the iterative, non-linear optimization in VSCF calculations can be erratic or altogether unsuccessful, particularly for chemical systems involving low-frequency motions. In this work, a vibrational formulation of the Direct Inversion of the Iterative Subspace method of Pulay is presented and investigated. This formulation accounts for distinct attributes of the vibrational and electronic cases, including the expansion of each single-mode vibrational wavefunction in its own basis set. The resulting Direct Inversion of the Iterative Subspace method is shown to substantially accelerate VSCF convergence in all convergent cases as well as rectify many cases where Roothaan-based methods fail. Performance across systems ranging from small, rigid molecules to weakly bound molecular clusters is investigated in this analysis.
This study presents the development and implementation of an autonomous Bayesian optimization (BO) framework for controlling and optimizing experimental parameters in Atom Probe Tomography (APT). Using commercial silicon needle samples as a benchmark system, we demonstrate that BO can efficiently navigate the complex parameter space of voltage and laser power to achieve target charge state ratios (specifically Si + /(Si + +Si 2+ )) with minimal experimental evaluations. Our implementation integrates Gaussian Process modeling with the CAMECA atom probe control framework, enabling autonomous adjustment of experimental conditions in real-time. Results show that the algorithm successfully converges to target ratios under different scenarios: maintaining a reference ratio, increasing the ratio (favoring Si 1+ ), and decreasing the ratio (favoring Si 2+ ). The system adapts to specimen evolution during analysis, compensating for changes in apex geometry while maintaining optimization targets. This work establishes a proof of concept for AI-driven optimization in APT, addressing the traditional challenges of manual parameter tuning and paving the way for applications to more complex materials where compositional accuracy is critical.
The dehumidification of air is a highly energy-intensive process, typically requiring vapor compression systems to cool the air significantly below its dew point temperature. Here, this study numerically investigates air dehumidification achieved by electrostatic and dielectrophoresis forces in a converging duct and centrifugal principles in cyclone separators. An electrospray was employed to energize water droplets, which then captured water vapor via dielectrophoresis. A novelty of the present study is the inclusion of a cyclone separator positioned downstream of the electrospray. This combination increased the dehumidification efficiency and controlled the flow of the condensate. By integrating electrospray technology and applying an electric field, this study examines the impact of particle separation efficiency, pressure drops, and cyclone performance on air dehumidification. The control parameters for air dehumidification were investigated. Three cyclones were modelled for airflow rates of 5 cubic feet per minute [cfm] (0.0024 m 3 /s), 38 cfm (0.0179 m 3 /s), and 200 cfm (0.094 m 3 /s). The results indicated air dehumidification was up to 5.7 % under environmental conditions, similar to those used to validate the CFD model. The degree of air dehumidification was primarily influenced by the electric charge acquired by the water droplets, their flight trajectory, and the vorticity intensity within the cyclone. Air dehumidification could increase by up to 13 % by increasing the number of droplets injected into the air stream, the flight time, and the electrical charge. The breakdown electric field strength threshold near the electrospray was a limiting factor for further enhancing dehumidification performance. This study examines the optimization of an electro-assisted dehumidification system that includes cyclone-based droplet separation through numerical analysis. The results provide insights into the design of energy-efficient air treatment technologies.
The design of inertial confinement fusion ignition targets requires radiation-hydrodynamics simulations with accurate models of the fundamental material properties (i.e., equation of state, opacity, and conductivity). Validation of these models is required via experimentation. A feasibility study of using spatially integrated, spectrally resolved, x-ray Thomson scattering measurements to diagnose the temperature, density, and ionization of the compressed DT shell of a cryogenic DT implosion at two-thirds convergence was conducted. Synthetic scattering spectra were generated using 1D implosion simulations from the LILAC code that were post processed with the x-ray scattering model, which is incorporated within SPECT3D. Analysis of two extreme adiabat capsule conditions showed that the plasma conditions for both compressed DT shells could be resolved.
Photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) is an established technique for measuring the velocities of fast-moving surfaces in high-energy-density experiments. In the standard approach to PDV analysis, the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is used to generate a spectrogram from which the velocity history of the target is inferred. The user chooses the form, duration, and separation of the window function. Here, in this study, we present a Bayesian approach to infer the velocity directly from the PDV oscilloscope trace, without using the spectrogram for analysis. This is clearly a difficult inference problem due to the highly periodic nature of the data, but we find that with carefully chosen prior distributions for the model parameters, we can accurately recover the injected velocity from synthetic data. We validate this method using PDV data collected at the STAR two-stage light gas gun at Sandia National Laboratories, recovering shock-front velocities in quartz that are consistent with those inferred using the STFT-based approach and are interpolated across regions of low signal-to-noise data. Although this method does not rely on the same user choices as the STFT, we caution that it can be prone to misspecification if the chosen model is not sufficient to capture the velocity behavior. Analysis using posterior predictive checks can be used to establish whether a better model is required, although more complex models come with additional computational cost, often taking more than several hours to converge when sampling the Bayesian posterior. We, therefore, recommend it be viewed as a complementary method to that of the STFT-based approach.
Calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) biomineralizing organisms have played major roles in the history of life and the global carbon cycle during the past 541 Ma. Both marine diversification and mass extinctions reflect physiological responses to environmental changes through time. An integrated understanding of carbonate biomineralization is necessary to illuminate this evolutionary record and to understand how modern organisms will respond to 21st century global change. Biomineralization evolved independently but convergently across phyla, suggesting a unity of mechanism that transcends biological differences. In this review, we combine CaCO 3 skeleton formation mechanisms with constraints from evolutionary history, omics, and a meta-analysis of isotopic data to develop a plausible model for CaCO 3 biomineralization applicable to all phyla. The model provides a framework for understanding the environmental sensitivity of marine calcifiers, past mass extinctions, and resilience in 21st century acidifying oceans. Thus, it frames questions about the past, present, and future of CaCO 3 biomineralizing organisms.
It is well documented that over the tropical oceans, column-integrated precipitable water (pw) and precipitation (P) have a nonlinear relationship. In this study moisture budget analysis is used to examine this P–pw relationship in a normalized precipitable water framework. It is shown that the parameters of the nonlinear relationship depend on the vertical structure of moisture convergence. Specifically, the precipitable water values at which precipitation is balanced independently by evaporation versus by moisture convergence define a critical normalized precipitable water, pw nc . This is a measure of convective inhibition that separates tropical precipitation into two regimes: a local evaporation-controlled regime with widespread drizzle and a precipitable water–controlled regime. Most of the 17 CMIP6 historical simulations examined here have higher pw nc compared to ERA5, and more frequently they operate in the drizzle regime. When compared to observations, they overestimate precipitation over the high-evaporation oceanic regions off the equator, thereby producing a ‘‘double ITCZ’’ feature, while underestimating precipitation over the large tropical landmasses and over the climatologically moist oceanic regions near the equator. The responses to warming under the SSP585 scenario are also examined using the normalized precipitable water framework. It is shown that the critical normalized precipitable water value at which evaporation versus moisture convergence balance precipitation decreases as a result of the competing dynamic and thermodynamic responses to warming, resulting in an increase in drizzle and total precipitation. Statistically significant historical trends corresponding to the thermodynamic and dynamic changes are detected in ERA5 and in lowintensity drizzle precipitation in the PERSIANN precipitation dataset.
Meteorites with known orbital origins are key to our understanding of solar system formation and the source of life on Earth. Fireball networks have been developed globally in a unified effort to record and ultimately retrieve these cosmic samples. However, the accuracy of the determined orbit and the likelihood of meteorite recovery depend directly on the accuracy of the chosen meteoroid triangulation method. There are three leading techniques for meteoroid triangulation discussed in the literature: the method of planes, the straight-line least-squares method, and the multiparameter fit method. Here we describe an alternative method to meteoroid triangulation, called the dynamic trajectory fit. This approach uses the meteoroid’s 3D dynamic equations of motion to fit a realistic trajectory directly to multisensor line-of-sight observations. This method has the ability to resolve fragmentation events, fit systematic observatory timing offsets, and determine mass estimates of the meteoroid along its observable trajectory. Through a comprehensive Monte Carlo analysis of over 100,000 trajectory simulations, we find this new method to more accurately estimate meteoroid trajectories of slow entry events (<25 km s{sup −1}) and events observed from low convergence angles (<10°) compared to existing meteoroid triangulation techniques. Additionally, we triangulate an observed fireball event with visible fragmentation using the various triangulation methods to show that the proposed dynamic trajectory fit implementing fragmentation to best match the captured multisensor line-of-sight data.
The Amazon rainforest is a vital component of the global climate system, influencing the hydrological cycle and tropical circulation. However, understanding and modeling the evolution of convection in this region remain a scientific challenge. Here, we assess the environmental conditions associated with shallow, congestus, and isolated deep convection days during the wet season (December to April), employing measurements from the Green Ocean Amazon 2014–2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment and large-scale wind fields from the constrained variational analysis. Composites of deep days show moister than average conditions below 3 km early in the morning. Analyzing the water budget at the surface through observations only, we estimated the water vapor convergence term as a residual of the water balance closure. Convergence remains nearly zero during the deep days until early afternoon (13:00 LST), when it becomes a dominant factor in the water budget. At 14:00 LST, the deep days experience a robust upward large-scale vertical velocity, especially above 4 km, which supports the shallow-to-deep convective transition occurring around 16:00–17:00 LST. In contrast, shallow and congestus days exhibit drier pre-convective conditions, along with diurnal water vapor divergence and large-scale subsidence that extend from the surface to the lower free troposphere. Moreover, afternoon precipitation exhibits the strongest linear correlation (0.6) with large-scale vertical velocity, nearly double the magnitude observed for other environmental factors, even moisture, at different levels and periods of the day. Precipitation also exhibits a moderate increase with low-level wind shear, while upper-level shear has a relatively minor negative impact on convection.
In this study, an integrated coupling method has been developed for solving multiscale fluid-fluid coupling problems in plant-scale safety analysis models in SAM (System Analysis Module) code. In this method, a higher-fidelity multi-dimensional (3D) flow module is used for reactor components of complex flow features (e.g., reactor core) and a lumped parameter one-dimensional (1D) flow module for plant-scale flow loops (e.g., primary loop pipe network), respectively. In this method, the 3D fluid equation/domain and 1D fluid equation/domain are tightly coupled at the residual level and solved simultaneously using the Newton’s method to overcome the convergence issues typically seen in existing approaches like separate domain approach, where the 3D fluid equation and 1D fluid equation are solved separately. Extensive and successful code verifications and demonstrations have been performed for this newly developed method. This new modeling approach significantly simplify the work flow in developing high-fidelity plant-scale safety analysis model, e.g. for pool-type reactors and pebble-bed reactors.
Cathode-directed streamer evolution in near atmospheric air is modeled in 3D pin-to-plane geometries using a 3D kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) code that simulates particle-particle collisions via the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Due to the computational challenges associated with a complete 360° volumetric domain, a practical alternative was achieved using a wedge domain and a range of azimuthal angles was explored (5°, 15°, 30°, and 45°) to study possible effects on the streamer growth and propagation due to the finite wedge angle. A DC voltage of 6 kV is administered to a hemispherical anode of radius 100 μm, with a planar cathode held at ground potential, generating an over-volted state with an electric field of 4 MV/m across a 1500 μm gap. The domain is seeded with an initial ion and electron density of 10 18 m -3 at 1 eV temperature confined to a spherical region of radius 100 μm centered at the tip of the anode. The air chemistry model [1] includes standard Townsend breakdown mechanisms (electron-neutral elastic, excitation, ionization, attachment, and detachment collision chemistry and secondary electron emission) as well as streamer mechanisms (photoionization and ion-neutral collisions) via tracking excited state neutrals which can then either quench via collisions or spontaneously emit a photon based on specific Einstein-A coefficients [2, 3]. In this work, positive streamer dynamics are formally quantified for each wedge angle in terms of electron velocity and density as temporal functions of coordinates r, Φ, and z. Applying a random plasma seed for each simulation, particles of interest are tracked with near femtosecond temporal resolution out to 1.4 ns and spatially binned. This process is repeated six times and results are averaged. Prior 2D studies have shown that the reduced electric field, E/n, can significantly impact streamer evolution [4]. We extend the analysis to 3D wedge geometries, to limit computational costs, and examine the wedge angle’s effect on streamer branching, propagation, and velocity. Results indicate that the smallest wedge angle that produced an acceptably converged solution is 30°. The potential effects that a mesh, when under-resolved with respect to the Debye length, can impart on streamer dynamics and numerical heating were not investigated, and we explicitly state here that the smallest cell size was approximately 10 times the minimum λ D in the streamer channel at late times. This constraint on cell size was the result of computational limitations on total mesh count.
The separability of microtearing mode (MTM)-dominated and electron temperature gradient (ETG)-driven turbulence regimes is studied with multiscale nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. The simulations are based on National Spherical Torus Experiment-like, high-confinement mode pedestal parameters, where electromagnetic perturbations are large. Linear analysis indicates a wide scale-separation between the MTM and ETG modes in binormal wavenumber space (perpendicular to the magnetic field line), with no unstable modes at intermediate scales. Likewise, single-scale nonlinear analyses, retaining ion-only or electron-only spatio-temporal scales, produce seemingly well-converged transport states. Surprisingly, the multiscale simulation, which contains both the ion and electron scales, closely follows the transport from the electron-scale simulation. This trend is robust over a wide range of electron temperature gradient. Remarkably, compared to ion-scale simulations, MTM turbulence is significantly reduced at multiscale resolution even when ETG turbulence is low. In this case, traditional ion-scale resolution overestimates the electron energy flux, and it is not possible to accurately simulate the MTM turbulence with separable ion-scale simulations. Here, while the analysis confirms the validity of electron-scale simulations for predicting the electron transport, it also indicates that multiscale simulation may be required for reproducing the turbulence spectrum for systems with coupled MTM-ETG turbulence.
A combined Mode I-II cohesive zone (CZ) elasto-plastic constitutive model, and a two-dimensional (2D) cohesive interface element (CIE) are formulated and implemented at small strain within an ABAQUS User Element (UEL) for simulating 2D crack nucleation and propagation in fluid-saturated porous media. Here, the CZ model mitigates problems of convergence for the global Newton-Raphson solver within ABAQUS, which when combined with a viscous stabilization procedure allows for simulation of post-peak response under load control for coupled poromechanical finite element analysis, such as concrete gravity dam stability analysis. Verification examples are presented, along with a more complex ambient limestone-concrete wedge fracture experiment, water-pressurized concrete wedge experiment, and concrete gravity dam stability analyses. A calibration procedure for estimating the CZ parameters is demonstrated with the limestone-concrete wedge fracture process. For the water-pressurized concrete wedge fracture experiment it is shown that the inherent time-dependence of the poromechanical CIE analysis provides a good match with experimental force versus displacement results at various crack mouth opening rates, yet misses the pore water pressure evolution ahead of the crack tip propagation. This is likely a result of the concrete being partially-saturated in the experiment, whereas the finite element analysis assumes fully water saturated concrete. For the concrete gravity dam analysis, it is shown that base crack opening and associated water uplift pressure leads to a reduced Factor of Safety, which is confirmed by separate analytical calculations.
In Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) simulations based on the density functional theory (DFT), the potential energy and the interatomic forces are calculated from an electronic ground state density that is determined by an iterative self-consistent field optimization procedure, which, in practice, never is fully converged. The calculated energies and forces are, therefore, only approximate, which may lead to an unphysical energy drift and instabilities. Here, we discuss an alternative shadow BOMD approach that is based on backward error analysis. Instead of calculating approximate solutions for an underlying exact regular Born–Oppenheimer potential, we do the opposite. Instead, we calculate the exact electron density, energies, and forces, but for an underlying approximate shadow Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface. In this way, the calculated forces are conservative with respect to the approximate shadow potential and generate accurate molecular trajectories with long-term energy stabilities. We show how such shadow Born–Oppenheimer potentials can be constructed at different levels of accuracy as a function of the integration time step, δt, from the constrained minimization of a sequence of systematically improvable, but approximate, shadow energy density functionals. For each energy functional, there is a corresponding ground state Born–Oppenheimer potential. These pairs of shadow energy functionals and potentials are higher-level generalizations of the original “zeroth-level” shadow energy functionals and potentials used in extended Lagrangian BOMD. The proposed shadow energy functionals and potentials are useful only within this extended dynamical framework, where also the electronic degrees of freedom are propagated as dynamical field variables together with the atomic positions and velocities. The theory is quite general and can be applied to MD simulations using approximate DFT, Hartree–Fock, or semi-empirical methods, as well as to coarse-grained flexible charge models.
We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.
The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides the full and simplified design-by-analysis probabilistic assessments for determining acceptance of nuclear grade graphite core components. The assessments can be characterized by three parts: (1) a component stress distribution, often determined by a finite element (FE) model; (2) a Weibull probability density function (pdf) that characterizes the experimental tensile strength distribution; and (3) the post-processor, which combines the FE model and the Weibull strength distribution in accordance with the full and simplified assessments to determine component acceptance. It is known that the level of mesh refinement in FE models can affect the modeled component’s calculated stress distribution. Depending on the component geometry, the stress distribution may converge with sufficient refinement. It was previously unknown whether the acceptance decision resulting from the full and simplified assessments might change even with sufficient mesh refinement. This study explores that question using experimental strength results for a dog-bone geometry for two graphite grades, IG-110 and PCEA. The simplified assessment has two criteria that must be met, the first limits the combined membrane stress by the allowable stress and the second limits the peak equivalent stress by the allowable stress scaled by the ratio of flexural to tensile strength. In the application of the simplified assessment, convergence of the peak equivalent stress required extreme mesh refinement, however, the acceptance decision was not affected. It is hypothesized that more complex geometries with stress concentrations may present mesh refinement effects on the simplified assessment acceptance decision. Mesh refinement did affect the acceptance decision in the full assessment for the applied pressure loadings in this study. This work suggests component stress distribution convergence is not a sufficient criteria for POF convergence in the full assessment and that mesh refinement should continue until the POF has converged, especially where the resulting POF is bordering the SRC acceptable POF limit.