Results for “conditional probability” — Page 18

NASA NTRS2004

Conservative Analytical Collision Probabilities for Orbital Formation Flying

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Study Conducted on Sensor-Based Engine Life Calculation

Turbine engine life management is a very complicated process to ensure the safe operation of an engine subjected to complex usage. The challenge of life management is to find a reasonable compromise between the safe operation and the maximum usage of critical parts to reduce maintenance costs. The commonly used "cycle count" approach does not take the engine operation conditions into account, and it oversimplifies the calculation of the life usage. Because of the shortcomings, many engine components are regularly pulled for maintenance before their usable life is over. And, if an engine has been running regularly under more severe conditions, components might not be taken out of service before they exceed their designed risk of failure. The NASA Glenn Research Center and its industrial and academic partners have been using measurable parameters to improve engine life estimation. This study was based on the Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 typical flights under various operating conditions. First a closed-loop engine model was developed to simulate the engine operation across the mission profile and a thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) damage model was used to calculate the actual damage during takeoff, where the maximum TMF accumulates. Next, a Weibull distribution was used to estimate the implied probability of failure for a given accumulated cycle count. Monte Carlo simulations were then employed to find the profiles of the TMF damage under different operating assumptions including parameter uncertainties. Finally, probabilities of failure for different operating conditions were analyzed to demonstrate the importance of a sensor-based damage calculation in order to better manage the risk of failure and on-wing life.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗

NASA NTRS1994

The reaction probability of N2O5 with sulfuric acid aerosols at stratospheric temperatures and compositions

We have measured the rate of reaction of N2O5 with H2O on monodisperse, submicrometer H2SO4 particles in a low-temperature flow reactor. Measurements were carried out at temperatures between 225 K and 293 K on aerosol particles with sizes and compositions comparable to those found in the stratosphere. At 273 K, the reaction probability was found to be 0.103 +/- 0.0006, independent of H2SO4 composition from 64 to 81 wt%. At 230 K, the reaction probability increased from 0.077 for compositions near 60% H2SO4 to 0.146 for compositions near 70% H2SO4. Intermediate conditions gave intermediate results except for low reaction probabilities of about 0.045 at 260 K on aerosols with about 78% H2SO4. The reaction probability did not depend on particle size. These results imply that the reaction occurs essentially at the surface of the particle. A simple model for this type of reaction that reproduces the general trends observed is presented. the presence of formaldehyde did not affect the reaction rate.

Fried, Alan↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Condition Datasets for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. Further information on the datasets and how they were created can be found in: Biglu, M., M. Hall, E. Lozon, S. Housner. 2024. Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). NREL/TP-5000-89897. The data are also available at: https://github.com/FloatingArrayDesign/SiteConditions The content of each dataset is as follows: _NOW23_wind.txt: Hourly NOW-23 wind data up to a height of 400 meter. _metocean_1hr.txt: Hourly time series including wind, wave, surface current and temperature data. _Summary.xlsx: Metocean data, including extreme values, joint probability distributions and monthly statistics. _usSEABED_soil.csv: Extract of the usSEABED database for this specific site. _bathymetry_200m.txt (and 500m, 1000m): Gridded seabed depth data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available. To characterize the seismic hazard, we considered the initiating event frequency of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake event based on data from the literature. Seismic stressors that translate to the site from an earthquake event are expressed as peak ground acceleration. Site disturbance is characterized as a function of soil conditions, represented by different shear wave velocity values, which affect how seismic waves propagate and impact structures. Pipe fragility curves as a function of seismic capacity were used to correlate ground acceleration and failure probability. These fragility characteristics were combined with site-specific soil conditions to calculate the probability of pipe rupture during a seismic event. It should be noted that multiple simultaneous failures due to an earthquake event as a common cause are not considered. Some epistemic uncertainties such as self-exciting shocks, aftershocks, and the time variant nature of the ground motion are not considered either.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2012

Experimental Investigation of Augmented Spark Ignition of a LO2/LCH4 Reaction Control Engine at Altitude Conditions

The use of nontoxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost-effective mission scenarios. One promising green alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane (LCH4) with liquid oxygen (LO2). A 100 lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development project and tested at the NASA Glenn Research Center Altitude Combustion Stand in a low pressure environment. High ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination; so this ignition margin test program examined ignition performance versus delivered spark energy. Sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also explored. Three different exciter units were used with the engine s augmented (torch) igniter. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks. This suggests that rising pressure and flow rate increase spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter s ability to complete each spark. The reduced spark energies of such quenched deliveries resulted in more erratic ignitions, decreasing ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1 to 6 mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55 to 75 mJ were required for reliable ignition. Delayed spark application and reduced spark repetition rate both correlated with late and occasional failed ignitions. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition therefore coincides with propellant introduction to the igniter.

Kleinhenz, Julie↗

NASA NTRS2012

Spark Ignition Characteristics of a LO2/LCH4 Engine at Altitude Conditions

The use of non-toxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost effective mission scenarios. One promising "green" alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane/liquid oxygen. To demonstrate performance and prove feasibility of this propellant combination, a 100lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed and tested under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project. Since high ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination, a test program was performed to explore ignition performance and reliability versus delivered spark energy. The sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also examined. Three different exciter units were used with the engine's augmented (torch) igniter. Propellant temperature was also varied within the liquid range. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks (in quiescent, room air). The escalating pressure and flow environment increases spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter.s ability to deliver a spark. Reduced spark energies of these sparks result in more erratic ignitions and adversely affect ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1-6mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55-75mJ were required for reliable ignition. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition coincided with propellant introduction to the igniter and engine. Shifts of ignition timing were manifested by changes in the characteristics of the resulting ignition.

Kleinhenz, Julie↗

NASA NTRS2012

Spark Ignition Characteristics of a L02/LCH4 Engine at Altitude Conditions

The use of non-toxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost effective mission scenarios. One promising "green" alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane/liquid oxygen. To demonstrate performance and prove feasibility of this propellant combination, a 100lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed and tested under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project. Since high ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination, a test program was performed to explore ignition performance and reliability versus delivered spark energy. The sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also examined. Three different exciter units were used with the engine s augmented (torch) igniter. Propellant temperature was also varied within the liquid range. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks (in quiescent, room air). The escalating pressure and flow environment increases spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter s ability to deliver a spark. Reduced spark energies of these sparks result in more erratic ignitions and adversely affect ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1-6mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55-75mJ were required for reliable ignition. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition coincided with propellant introduction to the igniter and engine. Shifts of ignition timing were manifested by changes in the characteristics of the resulting ignition.

Kleinhenz, Julie↗

NASA NTRS1975

Parameter adaptive estimation of random processes

This paper is concerned with the parameter adaptive least squares estimation of random processes. The main result is a general representation theorem for the conditional expectation of a random variable on a product probability space. Using this theorem along with the general likelihood ratio expression, the least squares estimate of the process is found in terms of the parameter conditioned estimates. The stochastic differential for the a posteriori probability and the stochastic differential equation for the a posteriori density are found by using simple stochastic calculus on the representations obtained. The results are specialized to the case when the parameter has a discrete distribution. The results can be used to construct an implementable recursive estimator for certain types of nonlinear filtering problems. This is illustrated by some simple examples.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Path-length distributions of photons diffusely reflected from a semi-infinite atmosphere.

Knowledge of the probability distribution of photon path lengths for diffuse reflection in the continuum from a planetary atmosphere greatly simplifies computation of the shape and strength of absorption lines formed under conditions of multiple scattering. Graphs of this probability distribution are presented for diffuse reflection from a semiinfinite conservative atmosphere for both isotropic and forward-directed scattering, and for several angles of incidence and reflection. Graphs showing distributions for the case of absorption in the continuum are also discussed. The distributions are obtained from an analytic expression for the path-length distribution for nth-order scattering and a tabulation of nth-order intensities. It is found that te shape of the probability distribution depends markedly on the degree of forward scattering due to the phase function. The results are compared with those obtained by a Monte Carlo computation of the sort which might be used if tabulated nth-order intensities were not available.

Appleby, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Land-mobile-satellite fade measurements in Australia

Attenuation measurements were implemented at L-band (1.5 GHz) in southeastern Australia during an 11-day period in October 1988 as part of a continuing examination of the propagation effects due to roadside trees and terrain for mobile-satellite service. Beacon transmissions from the geostationary ETS-V and IPORS satellites were observed. The Australian campaign expanded to another continent our Mobile Satellite Service data base of measurements executed in the eastern and southwestern United States regions. An empirical fade distribution model based on U.S. data predicted the Australian results with errors generally less than 1 dB in the 1-20 percent probability region. Directive antennas are shown to suffer deeper fades under severe shadowing conditions (3 dB excess at 4 percent), the equal-probability isolation between co- and cross-polarized transmissions deteriorated to 10 dB at the 5 dB fade level, and antenna diversity reception may reduce unavailability of the system by a factor of 2-8.

Vogel, Wolfhard J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. In addition to providing curated reference site condition datasets for four U.S. areas, our assessment highlights the need for more publicly available metocean and soil condition data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the robustness of predictive probability for early stopping in two-group comparisons

We report physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1985

A theoretical basis for the analysis of redundant software subject to coincident errors

Fundamental to the development of redundant software techniques fault-tolerant software, is an understanding of the impact of multiple-joint occurrences of coincident errors. A theoretical basis for the study of redundant software is developed which provides a probabilistic framework for empirically evaluating the effectiveness of the general (N-Version) strategy when component versions are subject to coincident errors, and permits an analytical study of the effects of these errors. The basic assumptions of the model are: (1) independently designed software components are chosen in a random sample; and (2) in the user environment, the system is required to execute on a stationary input series. The intensity of coincident errors, has a central role in the model. This function describes the propensity to introduce design faults in such a way that software components fail together when executing in the user environment. The model is used to give conditions under which an N-Version system is a better strategy for reducing system failure probability than relying on a single version of software. A condition which limits the effectiveness of a fault-tolerant strategy is studied, and it is posted whether system failure probability varies monotonically with increasing N or whether an optimal choice of N exists.

Eckhardt, D. E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2018

GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

hydrology↗