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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed Bayesian machine learning case study: Integral blade rotors

This paper provides a physics-informed Bayesian machine learning (PIBML) description and case study. The PIBML approach applies three physics-based models to establish the initial beliefs before testing to determine the probability of milling stability (or prior). These include: receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA) prediction for the tool tip frequency response functions; finite element software prediction of the mechanistic force model coefficients; and a spindle speed-dependent power law model for process damping. Testing was then performed to identify optimal stable machining conditions using an expected improvement in material removal rate criterion. The prior probability of stability was updated using the test results to determine the posterior probability of stability. The test results were compared to the parameter recommendations provided by the endmill manufacturer. A demonstration integral blade rotor was machined at the optimal stable machining conditions for 304 stainless steel and 6061-T6 aluminum. Finally, the disagreement between manufacturer recommendations and milling performance in both materials tested emphasizes the need for broad implementation of PIBML approaches to increase machining productivity and efficiency.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Drying Cycle Simulator Thermal Response to Commercial Drying Conditions

The purpose of this report is to document updates on testing of the apparatus built to simulate commercial drying procedures for spent nuclear fuel at the Nuclear Energy Work Complex at Sandia National Laboratories. Validation of the extent of water removal in a dry spent nuclear fuel storage system based on drying procedures used at nuclear power plants is needed to close existing technical gaps. Operational conditions leading to incomplete drying may have potential impacts on the fuel, cladding, and other components in the system during subsequent storage and disposal. A general lack of data suitable for model validation of commercial nuclear canister drying processes necessitates well-designed investigations of drying process efficacy and water retention that incorporate relevant physics and well-controlled boundary conditions. This report documents testing updates for the Advanced Drying Cycle Simulator (ADCS). This apparatus was built to simulate commercial drying procedures and quantify the amount of residual water remaining in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly after drying. The ADCS was constructed with a prototypic 17×17 PWR fuel skeleton and waterproof heater rods to simulate decay heat. These waterproof heaters are the next generation design to heater rods developed and tested at Sandia National Laboratories in FY20. This report describes preliminary testing of the ADCS through measurement and analysis of the thermal response of the system to a subset of commercial drying conditions that exclude the introduction of water, namely simulated decay heats and pressures relevant to commercial drying. This test series, referred to as a “dry” test series in this report, spans three uniform waterproof heater rod powers (representing spent fuel decay heats), four helium fill pressures, and six vacuum levels. This test series was conducted to cover the range of expected ADCS testing conditions for upcoming “wet” testing, where water will be introduced and a simulated commercial drying cycle will be performed. The dry test conditions were derived from the commercial drying conditions seen in the High Burnup Demonstration and the vacuum drying conditions chosen for a smaller scale Dashpot Drying Apparatus tested at Sandia National Laboratories in FY22. For a given uniform power and pressure/vacuum level, the ADCS was operated at constant power and pressure and allowed to reach steady state conditions. The thermal data obtained from these tests were analyzed, and the results can inform computational models built to simulate commercial drying processes by providing baseline thermal data prior to the introduction of water. Following the preliminary dry tests, a test plan for the ADCS will be developed to implement a drying procedure that begins with the introduction of water to the system and is based on measurements from the drying process used for the High Burnup Demonstration Project. While applying power to the simulated fuel rods, this procedure is expected to consist of filling the ADCS vessel with water, draining the water with applied pressure and multiple helium blowdowns, evacuating additional water with a vacuum drying sequence at successively lower pressures, and backfilling the vessel with helium. Additional investigations are expected to feature failed fuel rod simulators with engineered cladding defects and guide tubes with obstructed dashpots to challenge the drying system with multiple water retention sites. The data from these investigations is expected to inform the efficacy of commercial drying operations through the quantification of residual water in a prototypic-length dry storage canister.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Low-Cost, High-Performance, Easy-To-Apply, Non-Flammable, Inorganic Phase Change Material (PCM) Technology (Project Final Report)

This report describes a 45-months long research program focused on the development of novel, easy-to-apply, non-flammable, and high-performance inorganic phase change materials (PCMs) for building and industrial applications. The University of Massachusetts Lowell (UML) formed a world-class team consisting of researchers form InsolCorp (only N. American manufacturer of inorganic PCM systems for building applications), and a group of industrial advisors, to develop a universal/multipurpose, simple-to-manufacture and cost-effective PCM technology. The project team expects that the results of this work will spur in the future the adoption of thermal storage materials – a key building energy saving technology as identified by DOE BTO – for a variety of building envelope applications. The main goal of this project was to demonstrate a suite of low-cost, multipurpose, and durable inorganic PCM formulations with phase transition temperatures encompassing typical building applications (between +5 o C and +55 o C). The first objective was to design, fabricate, and experimentally validate a performance of inexpensive, durable, highly efficient, non-flammable, and easy to manufacture PCMs. To allow a variety of building applications, the project team focused on formulations that exhibit repeatable phase transitions between +5 o C and +55 o C. To follow the DOE BTO cost efficiency target without compromising thermal performance, our work was based on inorganic compounds (mostly salt hydrates) and their blends, which represent a fraction of the cost of most of organic PCMs with about twice as high density as well as significantly higher thermal conductivity and phase change enthalpy. The second objective was to develop easy-to-manufacture and -install packaging/encapsulation designs that are 1) a superior barrier to current state-of-the-art macro-packaging, which significantly reduces the risk of loss of hydration water and PCM leak, and 2) optimal in enhancing the heat exchange rates with the surroundings and within the PCM core to ensure complete charging/discharging of the entire PCM within the product. Finally, the project’s intend was to scale-up the fabrication process to demonstrate installation on system-scale applications, and to validate the performance under field conditions. This work aimed at developing low-cost, high-energy storage, and reliable latent heat storage technology for building applications. This development was realized by formulating and integrating the following two technology components: 1) inorganic salt hydrate based PCMs that have high latent enthalpies and are low-cost and durable, and 2) PCM encapsulation (packaging) technology that maximizes PCM concentration and enhances heat transport characteristics in the product and with the external environment/materials. High thermal storage capacity, low cost and fire resistance are key to the building market entry for PCM technology. Therefore, the project’s focus was on salt-hydrate-based formulations which satisfy all these criteria. Packaging and/or encapsulation of PCM is a key processing step. The project team recognized that a low-cost and simple-to-manufacture salt hydrate-based PCM technology holds the best chance to be successful in the building construction market, a market which is traditionally extremely sensitive to cost and where commodity thermal insulations are the benchmark for envelope-related energy saving measures. That is why, in this project, the main intention was to minimize the production cost and maximize the product energy storage density without sacrificing the PCM performance. It was achieved through: 1. Minimizing the non-PCM components (plastics, additives, packaging/encapsulation materials, etc.) because they are significantly more expensive than salt hydrates, 2. Using highly thermally conductive and lightweight PCM carrier (packaging material) to facilitate more complete phase cycling, and 3. Optimizing the thickness and minimizing air spaces in product design (such as in pouched PCM). For this purpose, our approach was to enable an easy system design, including selection of the PCM operating temperatures, optimizing the necessary heat storage capacity (by stacking together several layers of PCM products), and if needed, a synchronized usage of PCM products of different temperatures. A specially designed, robust, highly thermally conducting and highly impermeable packaging (to retain salt hydrate water during phase transition cycles) was designed and tested to increase the overall system thermal performance and durability. All PCM products developed during this project were tested in both lab scale and in full scale field conditions. It is expected that, after further developments and commercialization, the developed PCM technologies may be also applied in space conditioning, energy storage technologies, and heat transfer applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2003

Energy-Absorbing, Lightweight Wheels

Improved energy-absorbing wheels are under development for use on special-purpose vehicles that must traverse rough terrain under conditions (e.g., extreme cold) in which rubber pneumatic tires would fail. The designs of these wheels differ from those of prior non-pneumatic energy-absorbing wheels in ways that result in lighter weights and more effective reduction of stresses generated by ground/wheel contact forces. These wheels could be made of metals and/or composite materials to withstand the expected extreme operating conditions. As shown in the figure, a wheel according to this concept would include an isogrid tire connected to a hub via spring rods. The isogrid tire would be a stiff, lightweight structure typically made of aluminum. The isogrid aspect of the structure would both impart stiffness and act as a traction surface. The hub would be a thin-walled body of revolution having a simple or compound conical or other shape chosen for structural efficiency. The spring rods would absorb energy and partially isolate the hub and the supported vehicle from impact loads. The general spring-rod configuration shown in the figure was chosen because it would distribute contact and impact loads nearly evenly around the periphery of the hub, thereby helping to protect the hub against damage that would otherwise be caused by large loads concentrated onto small portions of the hub.

Waydo, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vertical distribution of boundary layer new particle formation and implications for nanoparticle growth mechanisms (Final Report)

New particles can form high above ground in the atmosphere before such formation events are observed by ground-based instruments. Once formed, these particles can take up significant amounts of water vapor, which has implications on the mechanisms by which nanoparticles grow and, ultimately, impact cloud formation processes. These observations motivated the research performed in this project using a combination of modeling, laboratory experiments, and the analysis of field observations. We hypothesized is that ground-based measurements do not always accurately represent the location and timing of new particle formation events, nor do they adequately characterize the dominant physical and chemical processes that are responsible for the subsequent growth of newly formed particles. Essentially, we wanted to study the new particle formation process under conditions that we expect may be more relevant to the actual location in the atmosphere where such events take place, which are often characterized by higher relative humidities, lower temperatures, and a broader range of precursors and oxidants compared to those observed at ground level. This project had two main objectives, each of which directly addressed our hypothesis. Our first is to investigate the timing, distribution, meteorological conditions, and nanoparticle properties associated with boundary layer new particle formation through the analysis of ARM field campaigns such as HI-SCALE and long-term observations and observations performed in other locales such as in China and India where atmospheric conditions could play a crucial role in determining the mechanisms of new particle formation. This activity provided a comprehensive description, both in time and in space, of the gases and nanoparticle properties that are responsible for these events. We also performed modeling studies to explore the vertical profile and timing of new particle formation events from these campaigns. Our second objective was to perform laboratory and process-level modeling studies to investigate the role that conditions such as low ambient temperature, high relative humidity, and different oxidants such as nitrate radical play in determining unique chemical pathways for nanoparticle growth. In doing so, we revisited the representation of nanoparticle growth in global models and updated assumptions of formation and growth based on the findings of the field, laboratory, and process-level-model work. Our research provides crucial insights into the most important regions of the atmospheric boundary layer for future observational and modeling studies. It also identifies the most relevant environmental conditions, precursors, and oxidants that are responsible for nanoparticle growth, which will aid in the design of laboratory studies and process-level model experiments. The unique pathways that we discovered can be incorporated into regional and global models, thereby improving predictions and attribution of the role of new particle formation in, e.g., air pollution formation and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

The New Sun-Sky-Lunar Cimel CE318-T Multiband Photometer - A Comprehensive Performance Evaluation

This paper presents the new photometer CE318-T, able to perform daytime and night-time photometric measurements using the sun and the moon as light source. Therefore,this new device permits a complete cycle of diurnal aerosol and water vapour measurements valuable to enhance atmospheric monitoring to be extracted. In this study wehave found significantly higher precision of triplets when comparing the CE318-T master instrument and the Cimel AErosol RObotic NET work (AERONET) master (CE318-AERONET) triplets as a result of the new CE318-T tracking system. Regarding the instrument calibration, two new methodologies to transfer the calibration from a reference instrument using only daytime measurements (Sun Ratio and Sun-Moon gain factor techniques) are presented and discussed. These methods allow the reduction of the previous complexities inherent to nocturnal calibration. A quantitative estimation of CE318-T AOD uncertainty by means of error propagation theory during daytime revealed AOD uncertainties (u(sup D)(sub AOD)) for Langley-calibrated instruments similar to the expected values for other reference instruments (0.002-0.009). We have also found u(sup D)(sub AOD) values similar to the values reported in sun photometry for field instruments (approximately 0.015). In the case of the night-time period, the CE318-T-estimated standard combined uncertainty (u(sup N)(sub AOD)) is dependent not only on the calibration technique but also on illumination conditions and the instrumental noise. These values range from 0.011-0.018 for Lunar Langley-calibrated instruments to 0.012-0.021 for instruments calibrated using the Sun Ratio technique. In the case of moon-calibrated instruments using the Sun-Moon gain factor method and sun calibrated using the Langley technique, we found u(sup N)(sub AOD) ranging from 0.016 to 0.017 (up to 0.019 in 440 nm channel), not dependent on any lunar irradiance model. A subsequent performance evaluation including CE318-T and collocated measurements from independent reference instruments has served to assess the CE318-T performance as well as to confirm its estimated uncertainty. Daytime AOD evaluation, performed at Izana station from March to June 2014, encompassed measurements from a reference CE318-T, a CE318-AERONET master instrument, a Precision Filter Radiometer (PFR) and a Precision Spectroradiometer (PSR) prototype, reporting low AOD discrepancies between the four instruments (up to 0.006). The nocturnal AOD evaluation was performed using CE318-T- and starphotometer-collocated measurements and also by means of a day/night coherence transition test using the CE318-T master instrument and the CE318 daytime data from the CE318-AERONET master instrument. Results showed low discrepancies with the star photometer at 870 and 500 nm channels(less tna or equal to 0.013) and differences with AERONET daytime data (1 h after and before sunset and sunrise) in agreement with the estimated u(sup N)(sub AOD) values at all illumination conditions in the case of channels within the visible spectral range, and only for high moon's illumination conditions in the case of near infrared channels. Perceptible water vapour (PWV) validation showed a good agreement between CE318-T and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) PWV values for all illumination conditions, within the expected precision for sun photometry. Finally, two case studies have been included to highlight the ability of the new CE318-T to capture the diurnal cycle of aerosols and water vapour as well as short-term atmospheric variations, critical for climate studies.

Barreto, Africa↗
NASA NTRS1999

Modeling of Macroscopic/Microscopic Transport and Growth Phenomena in Zeolite Crystal Solutions Under Microgravity Conditions

Crystals grown from liquid solutions have important industrial applications. Zeolites, for instance, a class of crystalline aluminosilicate materials, form the backbone of the chemical process industry worldwide, as they are used as adsorbents and catalysts. Many of the phenomena associated with crystal growth processes are not well understood due to complex microscopic and macroscopic interactions. Microgravity could help elucidate these phenomena and allow the control of defect locations, concentration, as well as size of crystals. Microgravity in an orbiting spacecraft could help isolate the possible effects of natural convection (which affects defect formation) and minimize sedimentation. In addition, crystals will stay essentially suspended in the nutrient pool under a diffusion-limited growth condition. This is expected to promote larger crystals by allowing a longer residence time in a high-concentration nutrient field. Among other factors, the crystal size distribution depends on the nucleation rate and crystallization. These two are also related to the "gel" polymerization/depolymerization rate. Macroscopic bulk mass and flow transport and especially gravity, force the crystals down to the bottom of the reactor, thus forming a sedimentation layer. In this layer, the growth rate of the crystals slows down as crystals compete for a limited amount of nutrients. The macroscopic transport phenomena under certain conditions can, however, enhance the nutrient supply and therefore, accelerate crystal growth. Several zeolite experiments have been performed in space with mixed results. The results from our laboratory have indicated an enhancement in size of 30 to 70 percent compared to the best ground based controls, and a reduction of lattice defects in many of the space grown crystals. Such experiments are difficult to interpret, and cannot be easily used to derive empirical or other laws since many physical parameters are simultaneously involved in the process. At the same time, however, there is increased urgency to develop such an understanding in order to more accurately quantify the process. In order to better understand the results obtained from our prior space experiments, and design future experiments, a detailed fluid dynamic model simulating the crystal growth mechanism is required. This will not only add to the fundamental knowledge on the crystallization of zeolites, but also be useful in predicting the limits of size and growth of these important industrial materials. Our objective is to develop macro/microscopic theoretical and computational models to study the effect of transport phenomena in the growth of crystals grown in solutions. Our effort has concentrated so far in the development of separate macroscopic and microscopic models. The major highlights of our accomplishments are described.

Gatsonis, Nikos A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Spacecraft Water Exposure Guidelines for Selected Contaminants

To protect space crews from contaminants in potable and hygiene water. the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) requested that the National Research Council (NRC) provide guidance on how to develop water exposure guidelines and subsequently review NASA's development of exposure guidelines for specific chemicals. The exposure guidelines are to be similar to those established by the NRC for airborne contaminants (NRC 1992; 1994; 1996a,b; 2000a). The NRC was asked to consider only chemical contaminants, and not microbial agents. The NRC convened the Subcommittee on Spacecraft Water Exposure Guidelines to address this task, and the subcommittee's first report, Methods for Developing Spacecraft Water Exposure Guidelines, was published in 2000 (NRC 2000b). A summary of that report is provided. Spacecraft water exposure guidelines (SWEGs) are to he established for exposures of l, 10, 100, and 1,000 days (d). The 1-d SWEG is the concentration of a substance in water that is judged acceptable for the performance of specific tasks during rare emergency conditions lasting for periods up to 24 hours (h). The 1-d SWEG is intended to prevent irreversible harm and degradation in crew performance. Temporary discomfort is permissible as long as there is no effect on judgment, performance, or ability to respond to an emergency. Longer-term SWEGs are intended to prevent adverse health effects (either immediate or delayed) and degradation in crew performance that could result from continuous exposure in closed spacecraft for as long as 1,000 d. In contrast with the 1-d SWEG, longer-term SWEGs are intended to provide guidance for exposure under the expected normal operating conditions in spacecraft.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

Human Error In Complex Systems

Report presents results of research aimed at understanding causes of human error in such complex systems as aircraft, nuclear powerplants, and chemical processing plants. Research considered both slips (errors of action) and mistakes (errors of intention), and influence of workload on them. Results indicated that: humans respond to conditions in which errors expected by attempting to reduce incidence of errors; and adaptation to conditions potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations.

Morris, Nancy M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) 4.0 Enhanced Functionalities

The Integrated Medical Model is a probabilistic simulation model that uses input data on 100 medical conditions to simulate expected medical events, the resources required to treat, and the resulting impact to the mission for specific crew and mission characteristics. The newest development version of IMM, IMM v4.0, adds capabilities that remove some of the conservative assumptions that underlie the current operational version, IMM v3. While IMM v3 provides the framework to simulate whether a medical event occurred, IMMv4 also simulates when the event occurred during a mission timeline. This allows for more accurate estimation of mission time lost and resource utilization. In addition to the mission timeline, IMMv4.0 features two enhancements that address IMM v3 assumptions regarding medical event treatment. Medical events in IMMv3 are assigned the untreated outcome if any resource required to treat the event was unavailable. IMMv4 allows for partially treated outcomes that are proportional to the amount of required resources available, thus removing the dichotomous treatment assumption. An additional capability IMMv4 is to use an alternative medical resource when the primary resource assigned to the condition is depleted, more accurately reflecting the real-world system. The additional capabilities defining IMM v4.0the mission timeline, partial treatment, and alternate drug result in more realistic predicted mission outcomes. The primary model outcomes of IMM v4.0 for the ISS6 mission, including mission time lost, probability of evacuation, and probability of loss of crew life, are be compared to those produced by the current operational version of IMM to showcase enhanced prediction capabilities.

Spae Adaptation Syndrome↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Formation of Organic Compounds of Astrobiological Interest by the Irradiation Processing of Astrophysical Ices

Many environments in space contain very low temperature mixed molecular ices that are exposed to ionizing radiation in the form of cosmic rays and high-energy photons. While traditional chemistry would not be expected to occur at the temperatures typical of these ices (T < 50 K), ionizing radiation can break bonds in the original molecules in the ices to form highly reactive ions and radicals. These ions and radicals are subsequently free to react despite the low temperatures of the original ices. Laboratory experiments, many of them carried out at the Astrochemistry Laboratory at NASA-Ames, show that the irradiation of ices made of even simple molecules like H2O, CO, CO2, CH4, NH3, etc. can result in the robust formation of large numbers of far more complex organic compounds. Many of these new products are of direct interest to astrobiology. For example, the irradiation of mixed molecular ices has been shown to produce amino acids, amphiphiles, quinones, sugars, heterocyclic compounds, and nucleobases, all molecular building blocks used by terrestrial life. Insofar as the presence of these materials plays a role in the origin of life on planets, this has profound implications for the potential abundance of life in the universe since these experiments simulate universal conditions that are expected to be found wherever new stars and planets form.

Astrobiology↗
NASA NTRS2000

Comparison of Spacecraft Charging Environments at the Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn

Studies of the Earth with the ATS-5, ATS-6, and SCATHA spacecraft led to the development of several simple tools for predicting the potentials to be expected on a spacecraft in the space environment. These tools have been used to estimate the expected levels of worst case charging at Jupiter and Saturn for the Galileo and the Cassini spacecraft missions. This paper reviews those results and puts them in the context of the design issues addressed by each mission including the spacecraft design mitigation strategies adopted to limit differential charging. The model shows that shadowed surfaces in Earth orbit can reach 25 kV or higher in worst case environments. For Galileo, spacecraft- to-space potentials of 900 V were predicted in shadow. Since such potentials could produce possible discharges and could effect low energy plasma measurements, the outer surface of Galileo was designed to rigid conductivity requirements. Even though the surface of Galileo is not entirely conducting, after 27 orbits no adverse effects due to surface charging aside from limited effects on low energy plasma measurements have been reported. The saturnian environment results in spacecraft potentials to space in shadow of 100 V or less. Although the overall surface of the Cassini spacecraft was not entirely conducting and grounded, it is shown that only in the most extreme conditions, is it expected that Cassini will experience any effects of surface charging at Saturn.

plasma environments↗
NASA NTRS2022

Determining Flame Temperature By Broadband Two Color Pyrometry in A Flame Spreading Over A Thin Solid in Microgravity

Fire spread inside a spacecraft is a constant concern in space travel. Understanding how the fire grows and spreads, and how it can potentially be extinguished is critical for planning future missions. The conditions inside a spacecraft can greatly vary from those encountered on earth, including microgravity, low velocity flows, reduced ambient pressure and high oxygen, and thus affecting the combustion processes. In microgravity, the contributions of thermal radiation from gaseous species and soot can play a critical role in the spread of a flame and the problem has not been fully understood yet. The overall objective of this work is to address this by studying the soot temperature of microgravity flames spreading over a thin solid in microgravity. The experiments presented here were performed as part of the NASA project Saffire IV, conducted in orbit on board the Cygnus resupply vehicle before it re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere. The fuel considered is a thin fabric made of cotton and fiberglass (Sibal) exposed to a forced flow of 20 cm/s in a concurrent flow configuration. Reconstruction of the flame temperature fields is extracted from two color broadband emission pyrometry (B2CP) as the flame propagates over the solid fuel. A methodology, relevant assumptions and its applicability to other microgravity experiments are discussed here. The data obtained shows that the technique provides an acceptable average temperature around ~1300 K, which remains relatively constant during the spread with an error value smaller than 117 K. The data presented in this work provides a methodology that could be applied to other microgravity experiments to be performed by NASA. It is expected that the results will provide insight for what is to be expected in different conditions relevant for fire safety in future space facilities.

fire↗
DOE OSTI2020

Polymer Retention Evaluation in a Heavy Oil Sand for a Polymer Flooding Application on Alaska’s North Slope

For a polymer flooding field trial in a heavy oil reservoir on Alaska’s North Slope, polymer retention is a key parameter. Because of the economic impact of retention, this parameter was extensively studied using field core material and conditions. Several important findings were noted. Polymer retention based on effluent viscosity measurements can be overestimated unless the correct (non-linear) relation between polymer concentration and viscosity is used. Polymer degradation (either mechanical or oxidative) can also lead viscosity-based measurements to overestimate retention. Inaccessible pore volume (IAPV) can be overestimated if insufficient brine is flushed through the sand between polymer banks. Around 100 pore volumes (PV) of brine may be needed to displace mobile polymer to approach a true residual resistance factor and properly measure IAPV. Even for a sand pack with kwsor = 20 mD, IAPV was zero for HPAM with molecular weight (Mw) of 18 million g/mol. Fine-grain particles (<20 μm) strongly impacted polymer retention values. Native NB#1 sand with a significant component of particles <20 μm exhibited 290 μg/g, while the same sand exhibited 28 μg/g after these small particles were removed. Polymer retention did not necessarily correlate with mineral composition. The NB#1, NB#3, and OA sands had similar elemental and clay compositions, but the NB#1 sand exhibited ~10 times higher retention than the NB#3 sand. Polymer retention did not necessarily correlate with permeability. NB#1 sand exhibited much higher retention than OA sand, even though NB#1 sand was twice as permeable as OA sand. No evidence of chromatographic separation of HPAM molecular weights was found in our experiments. Although retention tended to be greater without a residual oil saturation (than at Sor), the effect was not strong. Aging a core (with high oil saturation) at 60°C reduced HPAM retention by a factor of two. As expected, under similar conditions, polymer retention was greater for a higher Mw HPAM (18 million g/mol) than for a lower Mw HPAM (10-12 million g/mol). In many cases with high polymer retention values (e.g., 240 μg/g), polymer arrival at the end of the core was relatively quick, but achieving the injected concentration occurred gradually over many pore volumes. This effect was not due chromatographic separation of polymer molecular weights. Results from modeling of this behavior was consistent with concentrationdependent polymer retention. The form assumed for the retention function in a simulator can have an important impact on the timing and magnitude of the oil response from a polymer flood. Field-based observations can underestimate polymer retention, depending on when the tracer and polymer concentrations were measured and the assumptions made about reservoir heterogeneity.

Wang, Dongmei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Layers Can Be Deceiving: A Hopping Model for Small Molecule Diffusion in TATB Crystal

Sorption of small molecule gases in materials can play a significant role in their long‐term stability and compatibility within multi‐material assemblies. While many material properties of the insensitive high explosive TATB (1,3,5‐triamino‐2,4,6‐trinitrobenzene) are well understood, very little is known regarding its permeability to gases. TATB crystal exhibits a graphitic‐like layered packing structure that evokes a mental schema in which the layers form nanoscopic channels, but it is unclear whether this structure promotes gas transport. Here, we use molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to predict transport of small molecules through TATB single crystal. An approach to fit classical force fields is developed to model TATB interactions with H 2 O, He, Ne, and Ar, which is then combined with steered MD to probe gas transport along selected directions in the crystal. We find that small molecule transport occurs via a hopping mechanism that exhibits distinct jumps between interstitial sites and is substantially faster normal to the layers as compared to through them. This result stems from the finding that intralayer junctions between adjacent TATB molecules are the most stable interstitial sites and that energetic barriers are lower for hopping between adjacent layers. An empirical model for diffusion rate based on the MD data shows that the rate decays exponentially with increasing molecular radius and is negligibly small for all molecules larger than He, including common atmospheric gases. These findings have implications for the interpretation of experiments that measure surface area, material response to extreme conditions, and are expected to help constrain models for material aging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗