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At least 325 records · Page 18

The application of a time-domain deconvolution technique for identification of experimental acoustic-emission signals

A method is presented for the signature analysis of pulses by reconstructing in the time domain the shape of the pulse prior to its passing through the measurement system. This deconvolution technique is first evaluated using an idealized system and analytical pulse models and is shown to provide improved results. An experimental situation is then treated; system-component models are developed for the digitizer, tape recorder, filter, transducer and mechanical structure. To accommodate both calibration results and manufacturer's data, and to provide stable mathematical models entails considerable effort: some 30 parameters must be identified to model this system - which is still a substantial approximation - albeit of very high order. Experimental pulses generated by a ball drop, spark discharge and a tearing crack are then deconvoluted 'back through' the system as modeled, using this technique. These results are compared and indicate (a) that consistent shapes may be expected from a given type of source and (b) that some sources can be identified with greater clarity using the deconvolution approach.

Houghton, J. R.↗

3C 279 - The case for 'superluminal' expansion

The compact extragalactic radio source 3C 279 was observed with the Haystack-Goldstone interferometer (wavelength approximately 3.8 cm) during six separate sessions spread between October 1970 and April 1972. The fringe amplitudes from each of these observation sessions were consistent with a two-component model of the brightness distribution of the source. The position angle of the line joining the components remained at 38 + or - 2 deg, while the angular separation between the components increased nearly linearly at the rate of 0.5 + or 0.1 milliarcsec/yr during this period. The corresponding apparent expansion speed is (21 + or - 4)c, for H = 50 km/s per Mpc and q = 0.05

Cotton, W. D.↗

Comprehensive system models: Strategies for evaluation

The task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models is vast involving validations of every model component at every scale of organization, as well as tests of all the individual linkages. Even the most detailed evaluation of each of the component processes and the individual links among them should not, however, engender confidence in the performance of the whole. The integrated earth system is so rich with complex feedback loops, often involving components of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and cryosphere, that it is certain to exhibit emergent properties very difficult to predict from the perspective of a narrow focus on any individual component of the system. Therefore, a substantial share of the task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models must reside at the level of whole system evaluations. Since complete, integrated atmosphere/ ocean/ biosphere/ hydrology models are not yet operational, questions of evaluation must be addressed at the level of the kinds of earth system processes that the models should be competent to simulate, rather than at the level of specific performance criteria. Here, we have tried to identify examples of earth system processes that are difficult to simulate with existing models and that involve a rich enough suite of feedbacks that they are unlikely to be satisfactorily described by highly simplified or toy models. Our purpose is not to specify a checklist of evaluation criteria but to introduce characteristics of the earth system that may present useful opportunities for model testing and, of course, improvement.

Field, Christopher↗

The Composition of Centaur 5145 Pholus

We present a new spectrum of the Centaur object 5145 Pholus between 1.15 and 2.4 micro meters. We model this, and the previously published (0.4- to 1.0- micrometer) spectrum, using Hapke scattering theory. Seen in absorption are the 2.04- micrometer band of H2O ice and a strong band at 2.27 micrometer, interpreted as frozen methanol and/or a photolytic product of methanol having small molecular weight. The presence of small molecules is indicative of a chemically primitive surface, since heating and other processes remove the light hydrocarbons in favor of macromolecular carbon of the kind found in carbonaceous meteorites. The unusually red slope of Pholus' spectrum is matched by fine grains of a refractory organic solid (tholin). Olivine (which we model with Fo 82) also appears to be present on Pholus. We present a five-component model for the composite spectrum of all spectroscopic and photometric data available for 5145 Pholus and conclude that this is a primitive object which has not yet been substantially processed by solar heat. The properties of Pholus are those of the nucleus of a large comet that has never been active.

Cruikshank, D. P.↗

Aerodynamic Loads at Mach Numbers from 0.70 to 2.22 on an Airplane Model Having a Wing and Canard of Triangular Plan Form and Either Single or Twin Vertical Tails: Tabulated Data for the Model with Twin Vertical Tails - Supplement 2

Tabulated results of a wind-tunnel investigation of the aerodynamic loads on a canard airplane model with twin vertical tails are presented for Mach numbers from 0.70 to 2.22. The Reynolds number for the measurements was 2.9 x 10(exp 6) based on the wing mean aerodynamic chord. The results include local static-pressure coefficients measured on the wing, body, and one of the vertical tails for angles of attack from -4 degrees to 16 degree angles of sideslip of 0 degrees and 5.3 degrees, and nominal canard deflections of O degrees and 10 degrees. Also included are section force and moment coefficients obtained from integrations of the local pressures and model-component force and moment coefficients obtained from integrations of the section coefficients. Geometric details of the model are shown and the locations of the pressure orifices are shown. An index to the data contained herein is presented and definitions of nomenclature are given. Detailed descriptions of the model and experiments and a brief discussion of some of the results are given. Tabulated results of measurements of the aerodynamic loads on the same canard model but having a single vertical tail instead of twin vertical tails are presented.

Peterson, Victor L.↗

Aerodynamic Loads at Mach Numbers from 0.70 to 2.22 on an Airplane Model Having a Wing and Canard of Triangular Plan Form and Either Single or Twin Vertical Tails Supplement I-Tabulated Data for the Model with Single Vertical Tails: Tabulated Data for the Model with Single Vertical Tail - Supplement 1

Tabulated results of a wind-tunnel investigation of the aerodynamic loads on a canard airplane model with a single vertical tail are presented for Mach numbers from 0.70 to 2.22. The Reynolds number for the measurements was 2.9 x 10(exp 6) based on the wing mean aerodynamic chord. The results include local static pressure coefficients measured on the wing, body, and vertical tail for angles of attack from -4 deg to + 16 deg, angles of sideslip of 0 deg and 5.3 deg, vertical-tail settings of 0 deg and 5 deg, and nominal canard deflections of 0 deg and 10 deg. Also included are section force and moment coefficients obtained from integrations of the local pressures and model-component force and moment coefficients obtained from integrations of the section coefficients. Geometric details of the model and the locations of the pressure orifices are shown. An index to the data contained herein is presented and definitions of nomenclature are given.

Peterson, Victor L.↗

Time-dependent radio fine structure of the quasar 3C 345

Results are reported for VLBI observations of 3C 345 at a wavelength of 3.8 cm with left circular polarization. Sixteen sets of correlated flux densities and three sets of closure phases were obtained from observations made over a three-year period with six independent interferometers formed from up to four antennas. The mathematical models employed to represent the radio brightness distribution of the source are described, and the data are analyzed on the basis of a two-component model. The results show that the compact source in 3C 345 consists of two components whose separation increased by about 0.3 milliarcsec over the observational period, that the smaller and weaker component is to the east and south of the larger and stronger one, and that the apparent expansion velocity would be about 2.5c for a redshift of 0.6, a Hubble constant of 60 km/sec per Mpc, and a deceleration parameter of unity. It is concluded that these findings are difficult to reconcile with the 'Christmas tree' model for the apparent change of separation with time over any given series of observations.

Wittels, J. J.↗

Dip Spectroscopy of the Low Mass X-Ray Binary XB 1254-690

We observed the low mass X-ray binary XB 1254-690 with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer in 2001 May and December. During the first observation strong dipping on the 3.9-hr orbital period and a high degree of variability were observed, along with "shoulders" approx. 15% deep during extended intervals on each side of the main dips. The first observation also included pronounced flaring activity. The non-dip spectrum obtained using the PCA instrument was well-described by a two-component model consisting of a blackbody with kT = 1.30 +/- 0.10 keV plus a cut-off power law representation of Comptonized emission with power law photon index 1.10 +/- 0.46 and a cut-off energy of 5.9(sup +3.0, sub -1.4) keV. The intensity decrease in the shoulders of dipping is energy-independent, consistent with electron scattering in the outer ionized regions of the absorber. In deep dipping the depth of dipping reached 100%, in the energy band below 5 keV, indicating that all emitting regions were covered by absorber. Intensity-selected dip spectra were well-fit by a model in which the point-like blackbody is rapidly covered, while the extended Comptonized emission is progressively overlapped by the absorber, with the, covering fraction rising to 95% in the deepest portion of the dip. The intensity of this component in the dip spectra could be modeled by a combination of electron scattering and photoelectric absorption. Dipping did not occur during the 2001 December observation, but remarkably, both bursting and flaring were observed contemporaneously.

Smale, Alan P.↗

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improve wildfire predictability driven by extreme water cycle with interpretable physically-guided ML/AI

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (Primary); insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics or knowledge-guided AI (Secondary). Science Challenge: Wildfires modify land surface characteristics, such as vegetation composition, soil and litter carbon stocks, and surface albedo, with significant consequences for the regional carbon cycle. For example, tropical regions (i.e., African and South America) are particularly vulnerable to wildfire, account for more than 80% of the global burned area, and emit ~1.4 PgC y -1 into the atmosphere together with other dust and aerosols that strongly affect regional climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flight Mechanics Analysis Tools Interoperability and Component Sharing

As multiple flight mechanics (FM) analysis tools are developed to meet the unique scientific and operational requirements of NASA missions, sharing data, transferring models and trajectory information between tools can be complicated. The NESC recently explored ways that increase interoperability of three mission analysis tools: Copernicus, General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT), and Mission-Analysis Operations Navigation Toolkit Environment (MONTE). These tools are used to generate a variety of products throughout all phases of a mission including: maneuver planning, trajectory optimization and design, orbit determination, performance and error analysis, trade studies and sizing. Establishing a framework to share models, component data and trajectory information is an efficient way to leverage the benefits of an analysis tool without expending development costs to duplicate functionality.

Flight Mechanics Simulation↗

Elevating SolTrace's Capabilities for the Next Generation of Concentrating Solar Analysis

SolTrace is an open-source Monte Carlo ray tracing software developed at NREL. SolTrace can characterize concentrating solar thermal (CST) collector optical performance and is CST technology agnostic. Shown in Fig. 1, SolTrace is a foundational tool in NREL's CST system and component modeling suite. SolTrace's generic surface elements can flexibly model novel collector and receiver designs to predict spatial and temporal flux distributions - critical to understand for CST component design, performance prediction, and system integration. Since its initial development, SolTrace has over 1,650 references on Google Scholar, over 9,800 downloads since 2017, and has served the CST research and development community as a benchmark of 3rd party verification. SolTrace provides users with many options for defining surface shape and boundaries. However, SolTrace provides limited documentation which can result in a steep learning curve for new users. Additionally, SolTrace lacks the computational performance required to evaluate optical performance of a CST system over the course of a year and/or iteratively over design parameters in a timely manner. To address this, we are working towards a new release of SolTrace that enables increased computational throughput by implementing ray tracing acceleration structures and enabling GPU parallelization. Additionally, we are working to improve SolTrace's usability, accessibility, and maintainability by (1) automating solar position time-dependent simulation processes, (2) creating general CST collector templates of grouped elements, (3) updating the user interface to better visualize model inputs and outputs, and (4) creating a user support network through forums, "how to" videos, and documentation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Best practice reporting guideline for building stock energy models

Buildings are responsible for 38% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, therefore, pathways to reduce their impact are crucial to achieve climate targets. Building stock energy models (BSEMs) have long been used as a tool to assess the current and future energy demand and environmental impact of building stocks. BSEMs have become more and more complex and are often tailored to case-specific datasets, which results in a high degree of heterogeneity among models. This heterogeneity, together with a lack of consistency in the reporting hinders the understanding of these models and, thereby, an accurate interpretation and comparison of results. In this paper we present a reporting guideline in order to improve reporting practices of BSEMs. The guideline was developed by experts as part of the IEA's Annex 70 and builds upon reporting guidelines from other fields. It consists of five topics (Overview, Model Components, Input and Output, Quality Assurance and Additional Information), which are further subdivided into subtopics. We explain which model aspects should be described in each subtopic, and provide illustrative examples on how to apply the guideline. In closing, the reporting guideline is consistent with the model classification framework and online model registry also developed in the Annex.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation

Abstract Current biogeochemical models produce carbon–climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first‐order or Michaelis–Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high‐quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics‐function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Neural Network Ensemble Approach for Improving Large-Scale Streamflow Predictability

Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g.,AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). We propose a Bayesian neural network ensemble approach for improving large-scale streamflow predictability and understanding in a changing environment that combines multiple Earth system land model predictions by calculating spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases while accounting for various types of observations at multiple scales with uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

AI-Constrained Bottom-Up Ecohydrology and Improved Prediction of Seasonal, Interannual, and Decadal Flood and Drought Risks

Focal Areas: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system composed of a hierarchy of models (3)Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed & simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗