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At least 325 records · Page 18

The Impact of Truth Surrogate Variance on Quality Assessment/Assurance in Wind Tunnel Testing

Minimum data volume requirements for wind tunnel testing are reviewed and shown to depend on error tolerance, response model complexity, random error variance in the measurement environment, and maximum acceptable levels of inference error risk. Distinctions are made between such related concepts as quality assurance and quality assessment in response surface modeling, as well as between precision and accuracy. Earlier research on the scaling of wind tunnel tests is extended to account for variance in the truth surrogates used at confirmation sites in the design space to validate proposed response models. A model adequacy metric is presented that represents the fraction of the design space within which model predictions can be expected to satisfy prescribed quality specifications. The impact of inference error on the assessment of response model residuals is reviewed. The number of sites where reasonably well-fitted response models actually predict inadequately is shown to be considerably less than the number of sites where residuals are out of tolerance. The significance of such inference error effects on common response model assessment strategies is examined.

DeLoach, Richard↗

Synthesizing Disparate LiDAR and Satellite Datasets through Deep Learning to Generate Wall-to-Wall Regional Inventories for the Complex, Mixed-Species Forests of the Eastern United States

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has become a commonly-used tool for generating remotely-sensed forest inventories. However, LiDAR-derived forest inventories have remained uncommon at a regional scale due to varying parameters among LiDAR data acquisitions and the availability of sufficient calibration data. Here, we present a model using a 3-D convolutional neural network (CNN), a form of deep learning capable of scanning a LiDAR point cloud, combined with coincident satellite data (spectral, phenology, and disturbance history). We compared this approach to traditional modeling used for making forest predictions from LiDAR data (height metrics and random forest) and found that the CNN had consistently lower uncertainty. We then applied the CNN to public data over six New England states in the USA, generating maps of 14 forest attributes at a 10 m resolution over 85% of the region. Aboveground biomass estimates produced a root mean square error of 36 Mg ha−1 (44%) and were within the 97.5% confidence of independent county-level estimates for 33 of 38 or 86.8% of the counties examined. CNN predictions for stem density and percentage of conifer attributes were moderately successful, while predictions for detailed species groupings were less successful. The approach shows promise for improving the prediction of forest attributes from regional LiDAR data and for combining disparate LiDAR datasets into a common framework for large-scale estimation.

Elias Ayrey↗

Assessing Requirements Quality through Requirements Coverage

In model-based development, the development effort is centered around a formal description of the proposed software system the model. This model is derived from some high-level requirements describing the expected behavior of the software. For validation and verification purposes, this model can then be subjected to various types of analysis, for example, completeness and consistency analysis [6], model checking [3], theorem proving [1], and test-case generation [4, 7]. This development paradigm is making rapid inroads in certain industries, e.g., automotive, avionics, space applications, and medical technology. This shift towards model-based development naturally leads to changes in the verification and validation (V&V) process. The model validation problem determining that the model accurately captures the customer's high-level requirements has received little attention and the sufficiency of the validation activities has been largely determined through ad-hoc methods. Since the model serves as the central artifact, its correctness with respect to the users needs is absolutely crucial. In our investigation, we attempt to answer the following two questions with respect to validation (1) Are the requirements sufficiently defined for the system? and (2) How well does the model implement the behaviors specified by the requirements? The second question can be addressed using formal verification. Nevertheless, the size and complexity of many industrial systems make formal verification infeasible even if we have a formal model and formalized requirements. Thus, presently, there is no objective way of answering these two questions. To this end, we propose an approach based on testing that, when given a set of formal requirements, explores the relationship between requirements-based structural test-adequacy coverage and model-based structural test-adequacy coverage. The proposed technique uses requirements coverage metrics defined in [9] on formal high-level software requirements and existing model coverage metrics such as the Modified Condition and Decision Coverage (MC/DC) used when testing highly critical software in the avionics industry [8]. Our work is related to Chockler et al. [2], but we base our work on traditional testing techniques as opposed to verification techniques.

Rajan, Ajitha↗

Improving Separation Assurance Stability Through Trajectory Flexibility Preservation

New information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. One such concern is the adverse impact of uncoordinated actions by individual aircraft on the stability of separation assurance. For example, individual aircraft performing self-separation may resolve predicted losses of separation or conflicts with some traffic, only to result in secondary conflicts with other traffic or with the same traffic later in time. In answer to this concern, this paper proposes metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility to be used in self-separation along with other objectives. The hypothesis is that preserving trajectory flexibility will naturally reduce the creation of secondary conflicts by bringing about implicit coordination between aircraft. The impact of using these metrics on improving self-separation stability is investigated by measuring the impact on secondary conflicts. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a twenty minute time horizon while maintaining separation from the surrounding traffic and using trajectory flexibility metrics to mitigate the risk of secondary conflicts. Preliminary experiments showed promising results in that the trajectory flexibility preservation reduced the potential for secondary conflicts.

Idris, Husni↗

Verification and Validation Challenges for Adaptive Flight Control of Complex Autonomous Systems

Autonomy of aerospace systems requires the ability for flight control systems to be able to adapt to complex uncertain dynamic environment. In spite of the five decades of research in adaptive control, the fact still remains that currently no adaptive control system has ever been deployed on any safety-critical or human-rated production systems such as passenger transport aircraft. The problem lies in the difficulty with the certification of adaptive control systems since existing certification methods cannot readily be used for nonlinear adaptive control systems. Research to address the notion of metrics for adaptive control began to appear in the recent years. These metrics, if accepted, could pave a path towards certification that would potentially lead to the adoption of adaptive control as a future control technology for safety-critical and human-rated production systems. Development of certifiable adaptive control systems represents a major challenge to overcome. Adaptive control systems with learning algorithms will never become part of the future unless it can be proven that they are highly safe and reliable. Rigorous methods for adaptive control software verification and validation must therefore be developed to ensure that adaptive control system software failures will not occur, to verify that the adaptive control system functions as required, to eliminate unintended functionality, and to demonstrate that certification requirements imposed by regulatory bodies such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) can be satisfied. This presentation will discuss some of the technical issues with adaptive flight control and related V&V challenges.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

Exploring the Impact of Compliance With Maneuvering Guidelines for Space Traffic Management

If the current estimate of proposed large constellations is realized, the near-Earth space environment will see more than 50,000 new satellites added to the catalog of resident space objects (RSOs) in the coming decade. This is an order of magnitude increase from the current population and poses new policy challenges as global operators seek to leverage the benefits these new satellite systems provide while also ensuring a sustainable approach to collision avoidance. Various guidelines have been proposed to date to support this effort, including the development of right of way rules to guide how a collision avoidance maneuver should be performed, and how the maneuver burden should be shared between the two satellites involved. However, it is very difficult to evaluate and compare proposed guidelines due to the complex nature of space traffic and the rapidly changing space environment. This study seeks to address this issue by utilizing the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a high-fidelity simulation tool that has been developed at Georgia Tech over the past few years with the explicit purpose of evaluating the future of space traffic environment. Using this tool, a sensitivity study is performed that incorporates a likely set of future large constellations and provides metrics on the impact that a select set of proposed maneuvering guidelines would have on operators given realistic variations in spacecraft capabilities (e.g. maneuverability and propulsion capabilities), and other factors (owner-country, public vs. private, etc.). Specifically, this study compares three potential right of way rules: 1) a rule based on maneuverability proposed by the Space Safety Coalition, 2) a rule based on the geometry of the spacecraft rendezvous, and 3) a rule that equally distributes the maneuver burden between two operators, The results highlight general observations on the effectiveness and limitations of each of the proposed maneuvering guidelines. In addition to the choice of right of way rule, success of space traffic management will be significantly impacted by compliance – which operators, or how many operators, comply with the space traffic rules. The findings of this analysis have important implications for future methods that could be pursued to put in place right of way rules. For example, non-binding right of way rules may have variable levels of compliance that differ across actors. The impact of compliance by just one nation, or non-compliance by just one nation, help to demonstrate the impact of ensuring all major space actors coordinate on this effort. Overall, this analysis provides insight into the relative gains in safety (decrease in collision risk) that would likely result from more politically intense efforts to increase the number of countries implementing space traffic management rules.

conjunction assessment↗

Software engineering methodologies and tools

Over the years many engineering disciplines have developed, including chemical, electronic, etc. Common to all engineering disciplines is the use of rigor, models, metrics, and predefined methodologies. Recently, a new engineering discipline has appeared on the scene, called software engineering. For over thirty years computer software has been developed and the track record has not been good. Software development projects often miss schedules, are over budget, do not give the user what is wanted, and produce defects. One estimate is there are one to three defects per 1000 lines of deployed code. More and more systems are requiring larger and more complex software for support. As this requirement grows, the software development problems grow exponentially. It is believed that software quality can be improved by applying engineering principles. Another compelling reason to bring the engineering disciplines to software development is productivity. It has been estimated that productivity of producing software has only increased one to two percent a year in the last thirty years. Ironically, the computer and its software have contributed significantly to the industry-wide productivity, but computer professionals have done a poor job of using the computer to do their job. Engineering disciplines and methodologies are now emerging supported by software tools that address the problems of software development. This paper addresses some of the current software engineering methodologies as a backdrop for the general evaluation of computer assisted software engineering (CASE) tools from actual installation of and experimentation with some specific tools.

Wilcox, Lawrence M.↗

Properties of Ground Level Enhancement Events and the Associated Solar Eruptions During Solar Cycle 23

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the most complete set of observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. We present an overview of the observed properties of the GLEs and those of the two associated phenomena, viz., flares and CMEs, both being potential sources of particle acceleration. Although we do not find a striking correlation between the GLE intensity and the parameters of flares and CMEs, the solar eruptions are very intense involving X-class flares and extreme CME speeds (average approx. 2000 km/s). An M7.1 flare and a 1200 km/s CME are the weakest events in the list of 16 GLE events. Most (80 %) of the CMEs are full halos with the three non-halos having widths in the range 167 to 212 degrees. The active regions in which the GLE events originate are generally large: 1290 msh (median 1010 msh) compared to 934 msh (median: 790 msh) for SEP-producing active regions. For accurate estimation of the CME height at the time of metric type II onset and GLE particle release, we estimated the initial acceleration of the CMEs using flare and CME observations. The initial acceleration of GLE-associated CMEs is much larger (by a factor of 2) than that of ordinary CMEs (2.3 km/sq s vs. 1 km/sq s). We confirmed the initial acceleration for two events for which CME measurements are available in the inner corona. The GLE particle release is delayed with respect to the onset of all electromagnetic signatures of the eruptions: type II bursts, low frequency type III bursts, soft X-ray flares and CMEs. The presence of metric type II radio bursts some 17 min (median: 16 min; range: 3 to 48 min) before the GLE onset indicates shock formation well before the particle release. The release of GLE particles occurs when the CMEs reach an average height of approx 3.09 R(sub s) (median: 3.18 R (sub s) ; range: 1.71 to 4.01 R (sub s) ) for well-connected events (source longitude in the range W20–W90). For poorly connected events, the average CME height at GLE particle release is ∼66 % larger (mean: 5.18 R (sub s) ; median: 4.61 R (sub s) ; range: 2.75–8.49 R (sub s) ). The longitudinal dependence is consistent with shock accelerations because the shocks from poorly connected events need to expand more to cross the field lines connecting to an Earth observer. On the other hand, the CME height at metric type II burst onset has no longitudinal dependence because electromagnetic signals do not require magnetic connectivity to the observer. For several events, the GLE particle release is very close to the time of first appearance of the CME in the coronagraphic field of view, so we independently confirmed the CME height at particle release. The CME height at metric type II burst onset is in the narrow range 1.29 to 1.8 R(sub s), with mean and median values of 1.53 and 1.47 R(sub s). The CME heights at metric type II burst onset and GLE particle release correspond to the minimum and maximum in the Alfven speed profile. The increase in CME speed between these two heights suggests an increase in Alfvenic Mach number from 2 to 3. The CME heights at GLE particle release are in good agreement with those obtained from the velocity dispersion analysis, including the source longitude dependence. We also discuss the implications of the delay of GLE particle release with respect to complex type III bursts by approx 18 min (median: 16 in; range: 2 to 44 min) for the flare acceleration mechanism. A similar analysis is also performed on the delay of particle release relative to the hard X-ray emission.

Geomagnetic Storms↗

Use of Business Intelligence Tools in the DSN

JPL has operated the Deep Space Network (DSN) on behalf of NASA since the 1960's. Over the last two decades, the DSN budget has generally declined in real-year dollars while the aging assets required more attention, and the missions became more complex. As a result, the DSN budget has been increasingly consumed by Operations and Maintenance (O&M), significantly reducing the funding wedge available for technology investment and for enhancing the DSN capability and capacity. Responding to this budget squeeze, the DSN launched an effort to improve the cost-efficiency of the O&M. In this paper we: elaborate on the methodology adopted to understand "where the time and money are used"-surprisingly, most of the data required for metrics development was readily available in existing databases-we have used commercial Business Intelligence (BI) tools to mine the databases and automatically extract the metrics (including trends) and distribute them weekly to interested parties; describe the DSN-specific effort to convert the intuitive understanding of "where the time is spent" into meaningful and actionable metrics that quantify use of resources, highlight candidate areas of improvement, and establish trends; and discuss the use of the BI-derived metrics-one of the most fascinating processes was the dramatic improvement in some areas of operations when the metrics were shared with the operators-the visibility of the metrics, and a self-induced competition, caused almost immediate improvement in some areas. While the near-term use of the metrics is to quantify the processes and track the improvement, these techniques will be just as useful in monitoring the process, e.g. as an input to a lean-six-sigma process.

Metrics↗

Online Dectection and Modeling of Safety Boundaries for Aerospace Application Using Bayesian Statistics

The behavior of complex aerospace systems is governed by numerous parameters. For safety analysis it is important to understand how the system behaves with respect to these parameter values. In particular, understanding the boundaries between safe and unsafe regions is of major importance. In this paper, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling approach for the online detection and characterization of such boundaries. Our method for classification with active learning uses a particle filter-based model and a boundary-aware metric for best performance. From a library of candidate shapes incorporated with domain expert knowledge, the location and parameters of the boundaries are estimated using advanced Bayesian modeling techniques. The results of our boundary analysis are then provided in a form understandable by the domain expert. We illustrate our approach using a simulation model of a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system, as well as a system for the detection of separation violations in the terminal airspace.

Statistics↗

Coset Codes Viewed as Terminated Convolutional Codes

In this paper, coset codes are considered as terminated convolutional codes. Based on this approach, three new general results are presented. First, it is shown that the iterative squaring construction can equivalently be defined from a convolutional code whose trellis terminates. This convolutional code determines a simple encoder for the coset code considered, and the state and branch labelings of the associated trellis diagram become straightforward. Also, from the generator matrix of the code in its convolutional code form, much information about the trade-off between the state connectivity and complexity at each section, and the parallel structure of the trellis, is directly available. Based on this generator matrix, it is shown that the parallel branches in the trellis diagram of the convolutional code represent the same coset code C(sub 1), of smaller dimension and shorter length. Utilizing this fact, a two-stage optimum trellis decoding method is devised. The first stage decodes C(sub 1), while the second stage decodes the associated convolutional code, using the branch metrics delivered by stage 1. Finally, a bidirectional decoding of each received block starting at both ends is presented. If about the same number of computations is required, this approach remains very attractive from a practical point of view as it roughly doubles the decoding speed. This fact is particularly interesting whenever the second half of the trellis is the mirror image of the first half, since the same decoder can be implemented for both parts.

Fossorier, Marc P. C.↗

Distributed Space Mission Design for Earth Observation Using Model-Based Performance Evaluation

Distributed Space Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to earth observation missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in multiple dimensions. DSM design is a complex problem with many design variables, multiple objectives determining performance and cost and emergent, often unexpected, behaviors. There are very few open-access tools available to explore the tradespace of variables, minimize cost and maximize performance for pre-defined science goals, and therefore select the most optimal design. This paper presents a software tool that can multiple DSM architectures based on pre-defined design variable ranges and size those architectures in terms of predefined science and cost metrics. The tool will help a user select Pareto optimal DSM designs based on design of experiments techniques. The tool will be applied to some earth observation examples to demonstrate its applicability in making some key decisions between different performance metrics and cost metrics early in the design lifecycle.

Constellation↗

Utilizing Direct Numerical Simulations of Transition and Turbulence in Design Optimization

Design optimization methods that use the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the associated turbulence and transition models, or other model-based forms of the governing equations, may result in aerodynamic designs with actual performance levels that are noticeably different from the expected values because of the complexity of modeling turbulence/transition accurately in certain flows. Flow phenomena such as wake-blade interaction and trailing edge vortex shedding in turbines and compressors (examples of such flows) may require a computational approach that is free of transition/turbulence models, such as direct numerical simulations (DNS), for the underlying physics to be computed accurately. Here we explore the possibility of utilizing DNS data in designing a turbine blade section. The ultimate objective is to substantially reduce differences between predicted performance metrics and those obtained in reality. The redesign of a typical low-pressure turbine blade section with the goal of reducing total pressure loss in the row is provided as an example. The basic ideas presented here are of course just as applicable elsewhere in aerodynamic shape optimization as long as the computational costs are not excessive.

Direct numerical simulations of transition and tur↗

Solar gravitational redshift

Wavelengths of solar spectrum lines should be shifted toward the red by the sun's gravitational field as predicted by metric theories of gravity according to the principle of equivalence. Photographic wavelengths of 738 solar Fe I lines and their corresponding laboratory wavelengths have been studied. The measured solar wavelength minus the laboratory wavelength averaged for the strong lines agrees well with the theoretically predicted shift. Studies show that the departures depend on line strength. No dependence of the departures on wavelength was found within the existing data. By studying strong lines over a wide spectral range, velocity shifts caused by the complex motions in the solar atmosphere seem to affect the results in a minimal fashion.

Lopresto, J. C.↗

Range Process Simulation Tool

Range Process Simulation Tool (RPST) is a computer program that assists managers in rapidly predicting and quantitatively assessing the operational effects of proposed technological additions to, and/or upgrades of, complex facilities and engineering systems such as the Eastern Test Range. Originally designed for application to space transportation systems, RPST is also suitable for assessing effects of proposed changes in industrial facilities and large organizations. RPST follows a model-based approach that includes finite-capacity schedule analysis and discrete-event process simulation. A component-based, scalable, open architecture makes RPST easily and rapidly tailorable for diverse applications. Specific RPST functions include: (1) definition of analysis objectives and performance metrics; (2) selection of process templates from a processtemplate library; (3) configuration of process models for detailed simulation and schedule analysis; (4) design of operations- analysis experiments; (5) schedule and simulation-based process analysis; and (6) optimization of performance by use of genetic algorithms and simulated annealing. The main benefits afforded by RPST are provision of information that can be used to reduce costs of operation and maintenance, and the capability for affordable, accurate, and reliable prediction and exploration of the consequences of many alternative proposed decisions.

Phillips, Dave↗

Lunar Station: The Next Logical Step in Space Development

The International Space Station (ISS) is the product of the efforts of sixteen nations over the course of several decades. It is now complete, operational, and has been continuously occupied since November of 20001. Since then the ISS has been carrying out a wide variety of research and technology development experiments, and starting to produce some pleasantly startling results. The ISS has a mass of 420 metric tons, supports a crew of six with a yearly resupply requirement of around 30 metric tons, within a pressurized volume of 916 cubic meters, and a habitable volume of 388 cubic meters. Its solar arrays produce up to 84 kilowatts of power. In the course of developing the ISS, many lessons were learned and much valuable expertise was gained. Where do we go from here? The ISS offers an existence proof of the feasibility of sustained human occupation and operations in space over decades. It also demonstrates the ability of many countries to work collaboratively on a very complex and expensive project in space over an extended period of time to achieve a common goal. By harvesting best practices and lessons learned, the ISS can also serve as a useful model for exploring architectures for beyond low-­‐ earth-­‐orbit (LEO) space development. This paper will explore the concept and feasibility for a Lunar Station. The Station concept can be implemented by either putting the equivalent capability of the ISS down on the surface of the Moon, or by developing the required capabilities through a combination of delivered materials and equipment and in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Scenarios that leverage existing technologies and capabilities as well as capabilities that are under development and are expected to be available within the next 3-­5 years, will be examined. This paper will explore how best practices and expertise gained from developing and operating the ISS and other relevant programs can be applied to effectively developing Lunar Station.

Lunar↗

NASA Efforts to Explore Additively Manufactured Thermal Protection Systems

Development of the thermal protection system (TPS) needed to protect external and internal surfaces during launch, ascent, cruise, and reentry, is a very specialized field with expertise developed over seven decades and has enabled successful robotic as well as human exploration. Well known examples are: 1) the ablative heatshield that protected Apollo Astronauts during reentry in 1960’s, 2) reusable TPS used on the Space Shuttle Orbiter, which is now sought after by commercial space industry, and 3) hot structures, such as Carbon-Carbon and other high temperature materials needed to operate control surfaces and sharp leading edges during hypervelocity flight. TPS function demands fail-safe design to ensure mission success. One TPS does not fit all, and each application requires a unique material along with manufacturing and integration approach. TPS mass is a key metric. A robust but inefficient TPS reduces payload mass. Mission- and domain-unique TPS development and flight certification efforts have been expensive with long lead times. As a result, there are limited TPS choices with high cost. For future commercial efforts to be successful, the ability to rapidly develop TPS, based on specific needs and at a lower cost, without compromising either mass efficiency or functionality is necessary. NASA is looking into this. Additive manufacturing (AM) techniques have shown their utility in making complex parts and, through automation, the potential to reduce cost and schedule in some applications. The promise of additive manufacturing to TPS, while exciting, is unexplored. In the past several years, NASA has made exploratory investments in internal development as well as in small business and universities through SBIR and STTR programs. In addition, NASA is bringing together the TPS as well as Additive Manufacturing communities to explore approaches to prioritize focus areas for broad benefits. The very first “Additively Manufactured Thermal Protection System Workshop,” to be held at NASA Johnson Space Center in Houston at the end of March of this year, is the culmination of a year-long effort to engage the research, development, and user communities involved in both TPS as well as additive manufacturing. The workshop participants include representatives from large and small commercial space industry, DoD, Federally Funded Research and Development Centers, University Researchers and NASA personnel. The proposed talk will highlight future TPS needs of both emerging commercial and Government interests, NASA’s development efforts in additively manufactured TPS, and the findings and recommendations from the first AM TPS Workshop.

Ethiraj Venkatapathy↗

Validation on the Europa Clipper Mission in the Formulation Phase

The Europa Clipper mission will perform a detailed investigation of Europa’s environment and habitability by placing a spacecraft into a looping orbit around Jupiter and performing repeated close Europa flybys. The Europa Clipper Project Verification and Validation (V&V) team is responsible for verifying that the Project System is compliant with the science and engineering requirements levied on it and validating that it is capable of meeting the mission objectives. Europa Clipper has developed a V&V framework to ensure that mission capabilities are realized at a reasonable confidence level prior to launch. The V&V team will coordinate the validation activities defined by this framework throughout the project lifecycle as the spacecraft evolves from design to implementation and operations. Validation of space missions is typically grouped into three categories: 1) requirements validation, 2) model validation, and 3) system validation. System validation, along with verification activities, are often the primary focus of V&V programs and these efforts peak in the implementation phase. However, the increasing reliance of exploration missions on models and simulations, and the complexity of the Europa Clipper mission, have dictated attention to requirements and model validation in the formulation phase. This paper discusses the development of the Europa Clipper V&V framework with emphasis on the validation of models and simulations, and of requirements. Approaches include the adaptation of institutional guidelines, such as those in the NASA-STD-7009 document, to create a Project Model V&V Plan and the use of tools such as DOORS NG to plan model validation and derive requirement quality metrics.

Srivastava, Priyanka↗