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Mars atmospheric escape and isotopic fractionation: Synthesis of data and models

The present Mars atmosphere is relatively thin and cold. It is not at all like that which is presumed to have been responsible for the formation of valley networks and the heavy erosion of craters during the earliest epochs of martian history. An important goal of Mars exploration is to try to understand the properties of the early atmosphere, the initial inventory of volatiles at the planet's surface, the processes by which the atmosphere and climate have evolved over time, and the current location of volatiles presumed to have been in the atmosphere in the earlier times. The current status of understanding of the escape of volatiles to space over geologic time and the resulting fractionation of isotopes of stable atoms remaining in the atmosphere are described, and a scenario for volatile abundance and evolution that is consistent with the available information on the escape and fractionation of each species is constructed. In particular, the evolution of hydrogen, carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen, as contained in atmospheric (and non-atmospheric) water, carbon dioxide, and molecular nitrogen, is examined.

Jakosky, Bruce M.↗

A Cloud Greenhouse Effect on Mars: Significant Climate Change in the Recent Past

The large variations in Mars orbit parameters are known to be significant drivers of climate change on the Red planet. The recent discovery of buried CO2 ice at the South Pole adds another dimension to climate change studies. In this paper we present results from the Ames GCM that show within the past million years it is possible that clouds from a greatly intensified Martian hydrological cycle may have produced a greenhouse effect strong enough to raise global mean surface temperatures by several tens of degrees Kelvin. It is made possible by the ability of the Martian atmosphere to transport water to high altitudes where cold clouds form, reduce the outgoing longwave radiation, and drive up surface temperatures to maintain global energy balance.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes over the United States

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and drought, have a large impact on society through human health, destruction of infrastructure, ecological change, and economic losses. Reanalyses such as NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective Analysis, version 2 (MERRA-2) are a valuable tool for analyzing past extreme events to determine their underlying causes and how extremes have changed over the past four decades. The detection of extreme events relies on a threshold for precipitation or temperature that is derived using a reference period, which can then be used to determine how extreme an event was or what the return period is. Operational centers typically use a 30-year climatology period that shifts in time every ten years, while the World Meteorological Organization suggests that the maximum amount of data should be included for the detection of extreme events due to their rare occurrence. As global and regional climate continues to change, the interpretation of extreme events is reliant on the baseline period that is used for the underlying thresholds and can be a source of uncertainty for the policy making community. Three baseline periods – 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and 1981-2020 – will be used to compute percentiles of temperature and precipitation across the contiguous United States and will then by employed to determine monthly indices representing heatwaves, cold spells, and extreme precipitation events. A spatial and temporal analysis of the resulting extreme weather indices will demonstrate the appropriateness for each baseline period for the evaluation of extreme events.

Extremes↗

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Overview and Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission specifically designed to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational microwave sensors. NASA and JAXA will deploy a Core Observatory in 2014 to serve as a reference satellite to unify precipitation measurements from the constellation of sensors. The GPM Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a conical-scanning multi-channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). The DPR will be the first dual-frequency radar in space to provide not only measurements of 3-D precipitation structures but also quantitative information on microphysical properties of precipitating particles. The DPR and GMI measurements will together provide a database that relates vertical hydrometeor profiles to multi-frequency microwave radiances over a variety of environmental conditions across the globe. This combined database will be used as a common transfer standard for improving the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. For global coverage, GPM relies on existing satellite programs and new mission opportunities from a consortium of partners through bilateral agreements with either NASA or JAXA. Each constellation member may have its unique scientific or operational objectives but contributes microwave observations to GPM for the generation and dissemination of unified global precipitation data products. In addition to the DPR and GMI on the Core Observatory, the baseline GPM constellation consists of the following sensors: (1) Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) instruments on the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR-2) on the GCOM-W1 satellite of JAXA, (3) the Multi-Frequency Microwave Scanning Radiometer (MADRAS) and the multi-channel microwave humidity sounder (SAPHIR) on the French-Indian MeghaTropiques satellite, (4) the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-19, (5) MHS instruments on MetOp satellites launched by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), (6) the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), and (7) ATMS instruments on the NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites. Data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may also become available through international collaboration under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). The current generation of global rainfall products combines observations from a network of uncoordinated satellite missions using a variety of merging techniques. GPM will provide "next-generation" precipitation products characterized by: (1) more accurate instantaneous precipitation estimate (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a consistent framework, and (3) unified precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori hydrometeor database constrained by combined radar/radiometer measurements provided by the GPM Core Observatory. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals. GPM will provide a key measurement to improve understanding of global water cycle variability and freshwater availability in a changing climate. The DPR and GMI measurements will offer insights into 3-dimensional structures of hurricanes and midlatitude storms, microphysical properties of precipitating particles, and latent heat associated with precipitation processes. The GPM mission will also make data available in near realtime (within 3 hours of observations) forocietal applications ranging from position fixes of storm centers, numerical weather prediction, flood forecasting, freshwater management, landslide warning, crop prediction, to tracking of water-borne diseases. An overview of the GPM mission design, retrieval strategy, ground validation activities, and international science collaboration will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

Pairs of HCMM day-night thermal infrared (IR) data were selected to examine patterns of surface temperature and thermal inertia (TI) of peninsular Florida. GOES and NOAA-6 thermal IR, as well as National Climatic Center temperatures and rainfall, were also used. The HCMM apparent thermal inertia (ATI) images closely correspond to the General Soil Map of Florida, based on soil drainage classes. Areas with low ATI overlay well-drained soils, such as deep sands and drained organic soils. Areas with high ATI overlay areas with wetlands and bodies of water. The HCMM ATI images also correspond well with GOES-detected winter nocturnal cold-prone areas. Use of HCMM data with Carlson's energy balance model shows both high moisture availability (MA) and high thermal inertia (TI) of wetland-type surfaces and low MA and low TI of upland, well-drained soils. Since soil areas with low TI develop higher temperatures during the day, then antecedent patterns of highest maximum daytime surface temperature can also be used to predict nocturnal cold-prone areas in Florida.

Source record↗

Newly Identified Climatically and Environmentally Significant High-Latitude Dust Sources

Dust particles from high latitudes have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and the environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants, and nutrient sources. Identifying the locations of local dust sources and their emission, transport, and deposition processes is important for understanding the multiple impacts of high-latitude dust (HLD) on the Earth’s systems. Here, we identify, describe, and quantify the source intensity (SI) values, which show the potential of soil surfaces for dust emission scaled to values 0 to 1 concerning globally best productive sources, using the Global Sand and Dust Storms Source Base Map (G-SDS-SBM). This includes 64 HLD sources in our collection for the northern (Alaska, Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Sweden, and Russia) and southern (Antarctica and Patagonia) high latitudes. Activity from most of these HLD sources shows seasonal character. It is estimated that high-latitude land areas with higher (SI ≥ 0.5), very high (SI ≥ 0.7), and the highest potential (SI ≥ 0.9) for dust emission cover > 1 670 000 km 2 , > 560 000 km 2 , and > 240 000 km 2 , respectively. In the Arctic HLD region (≥ 60◦ N), land area with SI ≥ 0.5 is 5.5 % (1 035 059 km 2 ), area with SI ≥ 0.7 is 2.3 % (440 804 km 2 ), and area with SI ≥ 0.9 is 1.1 % (208 701 km 2 ). Minimum SI values in the northern HLD region are about 3 orders of magnitude smaller, indicating that the dust sources of this region greatly depend on weather conditions. Our spatial dust source distribution analysis modeling results showed evidence supporting a northern HLD belt, defined as the area north of 50◦ N, with a “transitional HLD-source area” extending at latitudes 50–58◦ N in Eurasia and 50–55◦ N in Canada and a “cold HLD-source area” including areas north of 60◦ N in Eurasia and north of 58◦ N in Canada, with currently “no dust source” area between the HLD and low-latitude dust (LLD) dust belt, except for British Columbia. Using the global atmospheric transport model SILAM, we estimated that 1.0 % of the global dust emission originated from the high-latitude regions. About 57 % of the dust deposition in snow- and ice-covered Arctic regions was from HLD sources. In the southern HLD region, soil surface conditions are favorable for dust emission during the whole year. Climate change can cause a decrease in the duration of snow cover, retreat of glaciers, and an increase in drought, heatwave intensity, and frequency, leading to the increasing frequency of topsoil conditions favorable for dust emission, which increases the probability of dust storms. Our study provides a step forward to improve the representation of HLD in models and to monitor, quantify, and assess the environmental and climate significance of HLD.

high latitude dust↗

GPM Mission Overview and U.S. Science Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products [1-2]. Water is fundamental to life on Earth. Knowing where and how much rain and snow falls globally is vital to understanding how weather and climate impact both our environment and Earth's water and energy cycles, including effects on agriculture, fresh water availability, and responses to natural disasters. Since rainfall and snowfall vary greatly from place to place and over time, satellites can provide more uniform observations of rain and snow around the globe than ground instruments, especially in areas where surface measurements are difficult. Relative to current global rainfall products, GPM data products will be characterized by: (l) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurements (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of domestic and international microwave radiometers including operational humidity sounders, (3) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud/hydrometeor database derived from GPM Core sensor measurements. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65 non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements by a constellation of dedicated and operational passive microwave sensors. The design of the GPM Core Observatory is an advancement of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s highly successful rain-sensing package. The Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multichannel (l0-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). Since light rain and falling snow account for a significant fraction of precipitation occurrence in middle and high latitudes, the GPM instruments extend the capabilities of the TRMM sensors to detect falling snow, measure light rain, and provide, for the first time, quantitative estimates of microphysical properties of precipitation particles. The combined use of DPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. The GMI uses 13 different microwave channels to observe energy from the different types of precipitation through clouds for estimating everything from heavy to light rain and for detecting falling snow. As the satellite passes over Earth, the GMI constantly scans a region 885 kilometers across. The Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation built the GMI under contract with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The DPR provides three-dimensional information about precipitation particles derived from reflected energy by these particles at different heights within the cloud system. The two frequencies of the DPR also allow the radar to infer the sizes of precipitation particles and offer insights into a storm's physical characteristics. The Ka-band frequen~y scans across a region of 125 kilometers and is nested within the wider scan of the Ku-band frequency of 245 kilometers. The Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Japan's National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) built the DPR. The Core Observatory satellite will fly at an altitude of 253 miles (407 kilometers) in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit that covers the Earth from 65 S to 65 N - from about the Antarctic Circle to the Arctic Circle. The GPM Core Observatory is being developed and tested at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Once complete, a Japanese H-lIA rocket will carry thPM Core Observatory into orbit from Tanegashima Island, Japan in 2014. The GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise 8 or more microwave sensors provided by partners, including both conical imagers and cross-track sounders. GPM is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Additional partnerships are under development to include microwave radiometers on the French-Indian Megha-Tropiques satellite and U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, as well as humidity sounders or precipitation sensors on operational satellites such as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, European MetOp satellites, and DMSP follow-on sensors. In addition, data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may be available through international cooperation under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GPM's next-generation global precipitation data will lead to scientific advances and societal benefits in the following areas: (1) Improved knowledge of the Earth's water cycle and its link to climate change (2) New insights into precipitation microphysics, storm structures and large-scale atmospheric processes (3) Better understanding of climate sensitivity and feedback processes (4) Extended capabilities in monitoring and predicting hurricanes and other extreme weather events (5) Improved forecasting capabilities for natural hazards, including floods, droughts and landslides. (6) Enhanced numerical prediction skills for weather and climate (7) Better agricultural crop forecasting and monitoring of freshwater resources. An overview of the GPM mission concept and science activities in the United States, together with an update on international collaborations in radiometer intercalibration and ground validation, will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Oceanographic Variations in Recent Decades and Their Impact on the Fertility of the Iceland Sea

Due to its location at or near the oceanic polar front, the Iceland Sea is an area particularly sensitive to climatic changes. In warm years a strong influx of Atlantic water from the Irminger Sea can be traced all along the North Iceland shelf area. This inflow is mainly determined by past meteorological conditions at the west and north coasts of Ireland. In periods when the ice belt along the east cost of Greenland is relatively narrow, the surface layers between Iceland and Jan Mayen consist of arctic water with practically no polar component. Conversely, in cold periods an appreciable proportion of cold, low-salinity polar water is found in this area, and large parts of the North Icelandic shelf area may be covered with drift ice. Sea surface temperatures north of Iceland, especially in spring, are closely correlated to the frequency and extension of drift ice.

Stefansson, U.↗

The Distribution, Composition, and Particle Properties of Mars Mesospheric Aerosols: an Analysis of CRISM Visible/near-IR Limb Spectra with Context from Near-Coincident MCS and MARCI Observations

The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectral Mapper (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) obtains pole-to-pole observations (i.e., full MRO orbits) of vertical profiles for visible/near-IR spectra (λ=0.4–4.0 μm), which are ideally suited to identifying the composition and particle sizes of Mars ice and dust aerosols over 50–100 km altitudes in the Mars mesosphere. Within the coverage limitations of the CRISM limb data set, a distinct compositional dichotomy is found in Mars mesospheric ice aerosols. CO2 ice clouds appear during the aphelion period of Mars orbit (Solar Longitudes, Ls∼0–160°) at low latitudes (∼20S–10N) over specific longitude regions (Meridiani, Valles Marineris) and at typical altitudes of 55–75 km. Apart from faint water ice hazes below 55 km, mesospheric H2O ice clouds are primarily restricted to the perihelion orbital range (Ls∼160 – 350°) at northern and southern mid-to-low latitudes with less apparent longitudinal dependences. Mars mesospheric CO2 clouds are presented in CRISM spectra with a surprisingly large range of particle sizes (cross section weighted radii, Reff=0.3 to 2.2 μm). The smaller particle sizes (Reff ≤1 μm) appear concentrated near the spatial (latitude and altitude) boundaries of their global occurrences. CRISM spectra of mesospheric CO2 clouds also show evidence of iridescence, indicating very narrow particle size distributions (effective variance, Veff∼0.03) and so very abrupt CO2 cloud nucleation. Furthermore, these clouds are sometimes accompanied by altitude coincident peaks in 1.27 μm O2 dayglow, which indicates very dry, cold regions of formation. Mesospheric water ice clouds generally exhibit small particle sizes (Reff=0.1–0.3 μm), although larger particle sizes (Reff=0.4–0.7 μm) appear infrequently. On average, water ice cloud particle sizes decrease with altitude over 50–80 km in the perihelion mesosphere. Water ice mass appears similar in clouds over a large range of observed cloud particle sizes, with particle number densities increasing to ∼10 cm−3 for Reff=0.2 μm. Near coincident Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) temperature and aerosol profile measurements for a subset of CRISM mesospheric aerosol measurements indicate near saturation (H2O and CO2) conditions for ice clouds and distinct mesospheric temperature increases associated with mesospheric dust loading. Dayside (3 pm) mesospheric CO2 clouds with larger particle sizes (Reff ≥0.5 μm) scatter surface infrared emission in MCS limb infrared radiances, as well as solar irradiance in the MCS solar band channel. Scattering of surface infrared emission is most strikingly presented in nighttime (3 am) MCS observations at 55–60 km altitudes, indicating extensive mesospheric nighttime CO2 clouds with considerably larger particle sizes (Reff∼7 μm). Mesospheric CO2 ice clouds present cirrus-like waveforms over extensive latitude and longitude regions (10°×10°), as revealed in coincident Mars Color Imager (MARCI) nadir imaging. Solar tides, gravity waves, and the large orbital variation of the extended thermal structure of the Mars atmosphere influence all of these behaviors. Mesospheric dust aerosols appear infrequently over the non-global (planet encircling) dust storm era of the CRISM limb data set (2009–2016), and exhibit smaller particle sizes (Reff=0.2–0.7 μm) relative to dust in the lower atmosphere. One isolated case of an aphelion (Ls=96°) mesospheric dust layer with large dust particle sizes (Reff ∼2 μm) over Syria Planum may reflect high altitude, non-local transport of dust over elevated regions.

Clancy, Todd R.↗

Earth orbital variations and vertebrate bioevolution

Cause of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition mammalian extinctions at the end of the last age is the subject of debate between those advocating human predation and climate change. Identification of an ambient air temperature (AAT)-uterine blood flow (UBF) coupling phenomenon supports climate change as a factor in the extinctions, and couples the extinctions to earth orbital variations that drive ice age climatology. The AAT-UBF phenomenon couples mammalian bioevolution directly to climate change via effects of environmental heat upon blood flow to the female uterus and damage to developing embryos. Extinctions were in progress during climatic warming before the Younger Dryas event, and after, at times when the AAT-UBF couple would have been operative; however, impact of a sudden short-term cooling on mammals in the process of adapting to smaller size and relatively larger S/V would have been severe. Variations in earth's orbit, and orbital forcing of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, were causes of the succession of Pleistocene ice ages. Coincidence of mammalian extinctions with terminations of the more intense cold stages links mammalian bioevolution to variations in earth's orbit. Earth orbital variations are a driving source of vertebrate bioevolution.

Mclean, Dewey M.↗

Nonlinear Gulf Stream Interaction with the Deep Western Boundary Current System: Observations and a Numerical Simulation

Gulf Stream (GS) separation near its observed Cape Hatteras (CH) separation location, and its ensuing path and dynamics, is a challenging ocean modeling problem. If a model GS separates much farther north than CH, then northward GS meanders, which pinch off warm core eddies (rings), are not possible or are strongly constrained by the Grand Banks shelfbreak. Cold core rings pinch off the southward GS meanders. The rings are often re-absorbed by the GS. The important warm core rings enhance heat exchange and, especially, affect the northern GS branch after GS bifurcation near the New England Seamount Chain. This northern branch gains heat by contact with the southern branch water upstream of bifurcation, and warms the Arctic Ocean and northern seas, thus playing a major role in ice dynamics, thermohaline circulation and possible global climate warming. These rings transport heat northward between the separated GS and shelf slope/Deep Western Boundary Current system (DWBC). This region has nearly level time mean isopycnals. The eddy heat transport convergence/divergence enhances the shelfbreak and GS front intensities and thus also increases watermass transformation. The fronts are maintained by warm advection by the Florida Current and cool advection by the DWBC. Thus, the GS interaction with the DWBC through the intermediate eddy field is climatologically important.

Dietrich, David E.↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition.Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

David Painemal↗

Evidence for Interannual to Decadal Variations in Hadley and Walker Circulations and Links to Water and Energy Fluxes

Mass and energy transports associated with the Hadley and Walker circulations are important components of the earth s climate system and are strongly linked to hydrologic processes. Interannual to decadal variation in these flows likely signify a combination of natural climate noise as well as a response to anthropgenic forcing. There remains considerable uncertainty in quantifying variations in these flows. Evidence in the surface pressure record supports a weakening of the Walker circulation over the Pacific in recent decades. Conversely the NCEP / NCAR and ERA 40 reanalyses indicate that the Hadley circulation has increased in strength over the last two decades, though these analyses depict significantly different mass circulation changes. Interestingly, the NCEP - II / DOE reanalysis contains essentially no Hadley circulation changes. Most climate model integrations anticipate a weakening of both tropical circulations associated with stronger static stability. Clearly there is much uncertainty not only with the mass transports, but also how they are linked to water and energy balance of the planet through variations in turbulent heat and radiative fluxes and horizontal exports / imports of energy. Here we examine heat and water budget variations from a number of reanalysis products and focus on the linear and nonlinear response of ENSO warm and cold events as opportunities to study budget variations over the past 15-20 years. Our analysis addresses such questions as To what extent do Hadley and Walker Cell variations compensate each other on mass and energy transport? Do static stability adjustments appear to constrain fractional precipitation response vs. fractional water vapor response? We appeal to constraints offered by GPCP precipitation, SSWI ocean evaporation estimates, and ISCCP-FD radiative fluxes, and other satellite data sets to interpret and confirm reanalysis-based diagnostics. Using our findings we also attempt to place in context the recent findings that tropical ocean evaporation increased by order 5% or more during the 1990s, reconciling this with GPCP precipitation variations.

Robertson, Franklin↗

Possible solutions to the problem of channel formation on early Mars

A warm climate on early Mars would provide a natural, although not unique, explanation for the presence of fluvial networks on the ancient, heavily cratered terrains. Explaining how the climate could have been kept warm, however, is not easy. The idea that the global average surface temperature, T(sub s), could have been kept warm by a dense, CO2 atmosphere supplied by volcanism or impacts is no longer viable. It was shown that CO2 cloud formation should have kept T(sub s) well below freezing until approximately 2 b.y. ago, when the Sun had brightened to at least 86 percent of its present value. Warm equatorial regions on an otherwise cold planet seem unlikely because atmospheric CO2 would probably condense out at the poles. Warming by impact-produced dust in the atmosphere seems unlikely because the amount of warming expected for silicate dust particles is relatively small. Greenhouse warming by high altitude CO2 ice clouds seems unlikely because such are poor absorbers of infrared radiation at most wavelengths. Warming by atmospheric NH3 seems unlikely because NH3 is readily photodissociated and because N may have been in short supply as consequence of impact erosion and the high solubility of NH3. A brighter, mass-losing young Sun seems unlikely because stellar winds of the required strength were not observed on other solar-type stars. In short, most of the explanations for a warm Martian paleoclimate that were proposed in the past seem unlikely. One possibility that seems feasible from radiative/photochemical standpoint is that CH4 and associated hydrocarbon gases and particles contributed substantially to the greenhouse effect on early Mars. Methane is photochemically more stable than NH3 and the gases and particles that can be formed from it are all good absorbers of infrared radiation. The idea of a CH4-rich Martian paleoatmosphere was suggested a long time ago but has fallen out of favor because of perceived difficulties in maintaining a CH4-rich atmosphere. In particular, it is not obvious where the CH4 might come from, since volcanic gases (on Earth, at least) contain very little CH4. This difficulty could be largely overcome if early Mars was inhabited by microorganisms. Then, methanogenic bacteria living in sediments could presumably have supplied CH4 to the atmosphere in copious quantities.

Kasting, J. F.↗

The distribution, composition, and particle properties of Mars mesospheric aerosols: An analysis of CRISM visible/near-IR limb spectra with context from near-coincident MCS and MARCI observations

The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectral Mapper (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) obtains pole-to-pole observations (i.e., full MRO orbits) of vertical profiles for visible/near-IR spectra (λ= 0.4–4.0 μm), which are ideally suited to identifying the composition and particle sizes of Mars ice and dust aerosols over 50–100 km altitudes in the Mars mesosphere. Within the coverage limitations of the CRISM limb data set, a distinct compositional dichotomy is found in Mars mesospheric ice aerosols. CO2 ice clouds appear during the aphelion period of Mars orbit (Solar Longitudes, L(s )∼ 0–160°) at low latitudes (∼20S–10N) over specific longitude regions (Meridiani, Valles Marineris) and at typical altitudes of 55–75 km. Apart from faint water ice hazes below 55 km, mesospheric H2O ice clouds are primarily restricted to the perihelion orbital range (L(s)∼160 – 350°) at northern and southern mid-to-low latitudes with less apparent longitudinal dependences. Mars mesospheric CO2 clouds are presented in CRISM spectra with a surprisingly large range of particle sizes (cross section weighted radii, R(eff) = 0.3 to 2.2 μm). The smaller particle sizes (R(eff) ≤1 μm) appear concentrated near the spatial (latitude and altitude) boundaries of their global occurrences. CRISM spectra of mesospheric CO2 clouds also show evidence of iridescence, indicating very narrow particle size distributions (effective variance, V(eff) ∼ 0.03) and so very abrupt CO2 cloud nucleation. Furthermore, these clouds are sometimes accompanied by altitude coincident peaks in 1.27 μm O2 dayglow, which indicates very dry, cold regions of formation. Mesospheric water ice clouds generally exhibit small particle sizes (R(eff) = 0.1–0.3 μm), although larger particle sizes (R(eff) = 0.4–0.7 μm) appear infrequently. On average, water ice cloud particle sizes decrease with altitude over 50–80 km in the perihelion mesosphere. Water ice mass appears similar in clouds over a large range of observed cloud particle sizes, with particle number densities increasing to ∼10 per cu. cm for R(eff) = 0.2 μm. Near coincident Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) temperature and aerosol profile measurements for a subset of CRISM mesospheric aerosol measurements indicate near saturation (H2O and CO2) conditions for ice clouds and distinct mesospheric temperature increases associated with mesospheric dust loading. Dayside (3 pm) mesospheric CO2 clouds with larger particle sizes (R(eff) ≥0.5 μm) scatter surface infrared emission in MCS limb infrared radiances, as well as solar irradiance in the MCS solar band channel. Scattering of surface infrared emission is most strikingly presented in nighttime (3 am) MCS observations at 55–60 km altitudes, indicating extensive mesospheric nighttime CO2 clouds with considerably larger particle sizes (R(eff)∼7 μm). Mesospheric CO2 ice clouds present cirrus-like waveforms over extensive latitude and longitude regions (10°×10°), as revealed in coincident Mars Color Imager (MARCI) nadir imaging. Solar tides, gravity waves, and the large orbital variation of the extended thermal structure of the Mars atmosphere influence all of these behaviors. Mesospheric dust aerosols appear infrequently over the non-global (planet encircling) dust storm era of the CRISM limb data set (2009–2016), and exhibit smaller particle sizes (R(eff) = 0.2–0.7 μm) relative to dust in the lower atmosphere. One isolated case of an aphelion (L(s) = 96°) mesospheric dust layer with large dust particle sizes (R(eff) ∼2 μm) over Syria Planum may reflect high altitude, non-local transport of dust over elevated regions.

R. Todd Clancy↗

The Ocean Carbon States Database: A Proof-of-Concept Application of Cluster Analysis in the Ocean Carbon Cycle

In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the 'ocean carbon states', as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important in the Southern Ocean flux bias.

carbon cycle↗

Detailed Structure of the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere as Revealed by Balloon Sonde Observations of Water Vapor, Ozone, Temperature, and Winds During the NASA TCSP and TC4 Campaigns

We report on balloon sonde measurements of water vapor and ozone using the cryogenic frost point hygrometer and electrochemical concentration cell ozonesondes made at Alajuela, Costa Rica (10.0 N, 84.2 W) during two NASA airborne campaigns: the Tropical Convective Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission in July 2005 and the Tropical Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4), July - August 2007. In both campaigns we found an upper troposphere that was frequently supersaturated but no evidence that deep convection had reached the tropopause. The balloon sondes were complemented by campaigns of 4 times daily high-resolution radiosondes from mid-June through mid-August in both years. The radiosonde data reveal vertically propagating equatorial waves that caused a large increase in the variability of temperature in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). These waves episodically produced cold point tropopauses (CPTs) above 18 km, yet in neither campaign was saturation observed above approx 380 K or 17 km. The averages of the water vapor minima below this level were 5.2 ppmv in TCSP and 4.8 ppmv in TC4, and the individual profile minima all lay at or above approx 360 K. The average minima in this 360 C380 K layer provide a better estimate of the effective stratospheric entry value than the average mixing ratio at the CPT. We refer to this upper portion of the TTL as the tropopause saturation layer and consider it to be the locus of the final dehydration of nascent stratospheric air. As such, it is the local equivalent to the tape head of the water vapor tape recorder.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

Impact of Asian Aerosols on Precipitation Over California: An Observational and Model Based Approach

Dust and pollution emissions from Asia are often transported across the Pacific Ocean to over the western United States. Therefore, it is essential to fully understand the impact of these aerosols on clouds and precipitation forming over the eastern Pacific and western United States, especially during atmospheric river events that account for up to half of California's annual precipitation and can lead to widespread flooding. In order for numerical modeling simulations to accurately represent the present and future regional climate of the western United States, we must account for the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions associated with Asian dust and pollution aerosols. Therefore, we have constructed a detailed study utilizing multi-sensor satellite observations, NOAA-led field campaign measurements, and targeted numerical modeling studies where Asian aerosols interacted with cloud and precipitation processes over the western United States. In particular, we utilize aerosol optical depth retrievals from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) to effectively detect and monitor the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust and pollution. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals are used in assimilating the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in order to provide the model with an accurate representation of the aerosol spatial distribution across the Pacific. We conduct WRF-Chem model simulations of several cold-season atmospheric river events that interacted with Asian aerosols and brought significant precipitation over California during February-March 2011 when the NOAA CalWater field campaign was ongoing. The CalWater field campaign consisted of aircraft and surface measurements of aerosol and precipitation processes that help extensively validate our WRF-Chem model simulations. After validating the capability of the WRF-Chem in realistically simulating the aerosol-cloud precipitation interactions, we conduct sensitivity studies where the AOD is doubled to diagnose whether an increasing concentration of Asian aerosols over the western United States will lead to further impacts on the cloud and precipitation processes over California. We also perform sensitivity studies where the aerosols will be partitioned into dust-only and pollution-only in order to separate the impacts of the differing Asian aerosol species. The results of our WRF-Chem model simulations aim to show that the trans-Pacific transport of Asian aerosols influence the precipitation associated with atmospheric river events that can ultimately impact the regional climate of the western United States. 1 University

Naeger, Aaron R.↗