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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Summarizing Multiple Aspects of Triple Collocation Analysis in a Single Diagram

With the ongoing expansion of global observation networks, it is expected that we shall routinely analyze records of geophysical variables such as temperature from multiple collocated instruments. Validating datasets in this situation is not a trivial task because every observing system has its own bias and noise. Triple collocation is a general statistical framework to estimate the error characteristics in three or more observational-based datasets. In a triple colocation analysis, several metrics are routinely reported but traditional multiple-panel plots are not the most effective way to display information. A new formula of error variance is derived for connecting the key terms in the triple collocation theory. A diagram based on this formula is devised to facilitate triple collocation analysis of any data from observations, as illustrated using three aerosol optical depth datasets from the recent Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). An observational-based skill score is also derived to evaluate the quality of three datasets by taking into account both error variance and correlation coefficient. Several applications are discussed and sample plotting routines are provided.

triple collocation↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Diurnal Variation of Dust and Water Ice Aerosol Optical Depth at Jezero Crater Observed By MEDA/TIRS Over A Full Martian Year

The Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS) on the Perseverance rover has provided nearly two full Mars years of systematic monitoring of the total aerosol optical depth above Jezero Crater. These observations span a wide range of timescales, capturing seasonal patterns, diurnal variations, and minute-to-minute fluctuations in aerosol loading. By combining TIRS retrievals with orbital observations, the relative contributions of dust and water ice aerosols can be estimated, revealing their different seasonal and diurnal behaviors. The TIRS record shows distinct periods of dust storm activity, including strong regional storms during the perihelion season as well as short lived but intense dust events outside the typical dust storm season. Water ice clouds exhibit pronounced seasonal and diurnal variability, with peak activity occurring during the aphelion season but with a presence throughout the year. The diurnal variation of clouds differs significantly between the aphelion and perihelion seasons, with clouds persisting throughout the night during the aphelion season, while largely absent outside of specific periods after sunrise and sunset during the perihelion season. These results provide new insights into the complex behavior of aerosols at Jezero Crater and their connections to atmospheric dynamics and the Martian dust and water cycles.

Michael D Smith↗
NASA NTRS1999

Radiative Importance of Aerosol-Cloud Interaction

Aerosol particles are input into the troposphere by biomass burning, among other sources. These aerosol palls cover large expanses of the earth's surface. Aerosols may directly scatter solar radiation back to space, thus increasing the earth's albedo and act to cool the earth's surface and atmosphere. Aerosols also contribute to the earth's energy balance indirectly. Hygroscopic aerosol act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thus affects cloud properties. In 1977, Twomey theorized that additional available CCN would create smaller but more numerous cloud droplets in a cloud with a given amount of liquid water. This in turn would increase the cloud albedo which would scatter additional radiation back to space and create a similar cooling pattern as the direct aerosol effect. Estimates of the magnitude of the aerosol indirect effect on a global scale range from 0.0 to -4.8 W/sq m. Thus the indirect effect can be of comparable magnitude and opposite in sign to the estimates of global greenhouse gas forcing Aerosol-cloud interaction is not a one-way process. Just as aerosols have an influence on clouds through the cloud microphysics, clouds have an influence on aerosols. Cloud droplets are solutions of liquid water and CCN, now dissolved. When the cloud droplet evaporates it leaves behind an aerosol particle. This new particle does not have to have the same properties as the original CCN. In fact, studies show that aerosol particles that result from cloud processing are larger in size than the original CCN. Optical properties of aerosol particles are dependent on the size of the particles. Larger particles have a smaller backscattering fraction, and thus less incoming solar radiation will be backscattered to space if the aerosol particles are larger. Therefore, we see that aerosols and clouds modify each other to influence the radiative balance of the earth. Understanding and quantifying the spatial and seasonal patterns of the aerosol indirect forcing may have even greater consequences. Presently we know that through the use of fossil fuel and land-use changes we have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In parallel, we have seen a modest increase of global temperature in the last century. These two observations have been linked as cause and effect by climate models, but this connection is still experimentally not verified. The spatial and seasonal distribution of aerosol forcing is different from that of greenhouse gases, thus generating a different spatial fingerprint of climate change. This fingerprint was suggested as a method to identify the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosol. The aerosol fingerprint may be the only way to firmly establish the presence (or absence) of human impact on climate. Aerosol-cloud interaction through the indirect effect will be an important component of establishing this fingerprint.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗
DOE OSTI2024

Method for Spatiotemporal Solar Power Profile Estimation for a Proposed U.S.–Caribbean–South America Super Grid under Hurricanes

Solar photovoltaic (PV) generation technology stands out as a scalable and cost-effective solution to enable the transition toward decarbonization. However, PV solar output, beyond the daily solar irradiance variability and unavailability during nights, is very sensitive to weather events like hurricanes. Hurricanes nucleate massive amounts of clouds around their centers, shading hundreds of kilometers in their path, reducing PV power output. This research proposes a spatiotemporal method, implemented in MATLAB R2023b coding, to estimate the shading effect of hurricanes over a wide distribution of PV solar plants connected to a high-voltage power infrastructure called the U.S.–Caribbean–South America super grid. The complete interconnection of the U.S., the Caribbean, and South America results in the lowest power valley levels, i.e., an overall percentual reduction in PV power output caused by hurricane shading. The simulations assess the impact of hurricanes in 10 synthetic trajectories spanning from Texas to Florida. The Caribbean would also experience lower power valleys with expanded interconnectivity schemes. The U.S.–Caribbean–South America super grid reduces Caribbean variability from 37.8% to 8.9% in the case study. The proposed spatiotemporal method for PV power profile estimation is a valuable tool for future solar power generation expansion, transmission planning, and system design considering the impact of hurricanes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1998

Evolution of Interstellar Grains

During the past two decades observations combined with laboratory simulations, have revolutionized our understanding of interstellar ice and dust, the raw materials from which planets, comets and stars form. Most interstellar material is concentrated in large molecular clouds where simple molecules are formed by dust-grain and gas-phase reactions. Gaseous species striking the cold (10K) dust stick, forming an icy grain mantle. This accretion, coupled with UV photolysis, produces a complex chemical mixture containing volatile, non-volatile, and isotopically fractionated species. Ices in molecular clouds contain the very simple molecules H2O, CH3OH, CO, CO2, H2, and perhaps some NH3 and H2CO, as well as more complex species. The evidence for these compounds, as well as carbon-rich materials, will be reviewed and the possible connections with comets and meteorites will be presented in the first part of the talk . The second part of the presentation will focus on interstellar/precometary ice photochemical evolution and the species likely to be found in comets. The chemical composition and photochemical evolution of realistic interstellar/pre-cometary ice analogs will be discussed. Ultraviolet photolysis of these ices produces H2, H2CO, CO2, CO, CH4, HCO, and more complex molecules. When ices representative of interstellar grains and comets are exposed to UV radiation at low temperature a series of moderately complex organic molecules are formed in the ice including: CH3CH2OH (ethanol), HC(=O)NH2 (formamide), CH3C(=O)NH2 (acetamide), and R-C=N (nitriles). Several of these are already known to be in the interstellar medium, and their presence indicates the importance of grain processing. After warming to room temperature an organic residue remains. This is composed primarily of hexamethylenetetramine (HMT, C6H12N4), with lesser amounts of polyoxymethylene-related species (POMs), amides, and ketones. This is in sharp contrast to the organic residues produced by irradiating unrealistic interstellar ice analogs or thermally promoted polymerization-type reactions in unirradiated realistic ice mixtures.

Allamandola, Lou J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

NASA Research Being Shared Through Live, Interactive Video Tours

On June 2, 2000, the NASA Glenn Research Center Learning Technologies Project (LTP) coordinated the first live remote videoconferencing broadcast from a Glenn facility. The historic event from Glenn's Icing Research Tunnel featured wind tunnel technicians and researchers performing an icing experiment, obtaining results, and discussing the relevance to everyday flight operations and safety. After a brief overview of its history, students were able to "walk through" the tunnel, stand in the control room, and observe a live icing experiment that demonstrated how ice would grow on an airplane wing in flight through an icing cloud. The tour was interactive, with a spirited exchange of questions and explanations between the students and presenters. The virtual tour of the oldest and largest refrigerated icing research tunnel in the world was the second of a series of videoconferencing connections with the AP Physics students at Bay Village High School, Bay Village, Ohio. The first connection, called Aircraft Safety and Icing Research, introduced the Tailplane Icing Program. In an effort to improve aircraft safety by reducing the number of in-flight icing events, Glenn's Icing Branch uses its icing research aircraft to conduct flight tests. The presenter engaged the students in discussions of basic aircraft flight mechanics and the function of the horizontal tailplane, as well as the effect of ice on airfoil (wing or tail) surfaces. A brief video of actual flight footage provided a view of the pilot's actions and reactions and of the horizon during tailplane icing conditions.

Petersen, Ruth A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Intelligent Observation Strategies for Geosynchronous Remote Sensing for Natural Hazards

Geosynchronous satellites offer a unique perspective for monitoring environmental factors important to understanding natural hazards and supporting the disasters management life cycle, namely forecast, detection, response, recovery and mitigation. In the NASA decadal survey for Earth science, the GEO-CAPE mission was proposed to address coastal and air pollution events in geosynchronous orbit, complementing similar initiatives in Asia by the South Koreans and by ESA in Europe, thereby covering the northern hemisphere. In addition to analyzing the challenges of identifying instrument capabilities to meet the science requirements, and the implications of hosting the instrument payloads on commercial geosynchronous satellites, the GEO-CAPE mission design team conducted a short study to explore strategies to optimize the science return for the coastal imaging instrument. The study focused on intelligent scheduling strategies that took into account cloud avoidance techniques as well as onboard processing methods to reduce the data storage and transmission loads. This paper expands the findings of that study to address the use of intelligent scheduling techniques and near-real time data product acquisition of both the coastal water and air pollution events. The topics include the use of onboard processing to refine and execute schedules, to detect cloud contamination in observations, and to reduce data handling operations. Analysis of state of the art flight computing capabilities will be presented, along with an assessment of cloud detection algorithms and their performance characteristics. Tools developed to illustrate operational concepts will be described, including their applicability to environmental monitoring domains with an eye to the future. In the geostationary configuration, the payload becomes a networked thing with enough connectivity to exchange data seamlessly with users. This allows the full field of view to be sensed at very high rate under the control of ground infrastructure, resulting in improved efficiencies, accuracy and science benefits. Hence a remote sensing payload and its data may become one of millions of connected objects in the emerging Internet of Things (IoT), and be as easily accessible by a users smart phone as any other smart appliance.

0↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth system processes

During the past eight years, we have been engaged in a NASA-supported program of research aimed at establishing the connection between satellite signatures of the earth's environmental state and the nonlinear dynamics of the global weather and climate system. Thirty-five publications and four theses have resulted from this work, which included contributions in five main areas of study: (1) cloud and latent heat processes in finite-amplitude baroclinic waves; (2) application of satellite radiation data in global weather analysis; (3) studies of planetary waves and low-frequency weather variability; (4) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to variable boundary conditions measurable from satellites; and (5) dynamics of long-term earth system changes. Significant accomplishments from the three main lines of investigation pursued during the past year are presented and include the following: (1) planetary atmospheric waves and low frequency variability; (2) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to changed boundary conditions; and (3) dynamics of long-term changes in the global earth system.

Saltzman, Barry↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Cybersecurity Threat Profile for a Connected Lighting System

In anticipation of improved energy performance and cost savings, cities and building owners are increasingly considering “smart lighting initiatives” that aim to convert their collection of simple luminaires (i.e., lighting fixtures) into an intelligent connected lighting system (CLS) capable of remotely monitoring energy consumption and fault conditions, and possibly implementing adaptive lighting schemes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has set an national goal of tripling the energy efficiency and demand flexibility of the buildings sector by 2030, relative to 2020 levels 1. It is forecast that connected lighting systems can contribute to that goal by delivering 125 TWh of annual energy savings by 2035 2, equivalent to the annual output of 50 typical (500 MW) power plants. However, these energy savings and the DOE goal are put at significant risk if connected technologies are not adopted due to real or perceived cybersecurity concerns. Connected IoT devices such as these have historically been rife with vulnerabilities which sometimes put security considerations secondary to functionality and operability. What are the cybersecurity threats that will impact these systems, as formerly banal luminaires transition into intelligent connected devices that collect information about themselves, their surrounding environment, and possibly us? In this paper we analyze a threat profile performed on a fault-detection use case for streetlights. A threat profile establishes security requirements, justifies security measures, yields actionable controls, and effectively communicates risk to stakeholders. This effort provides critical information for making threat-based decisions to increase security at a reasonable cost, and can effectively be used by development teams, software architects, and managers to make cybersecurity a part of their ongoing culture of awareness, training, and prevention. This leads to more secure systems and better-understood security. On-premise, cloud, and hybrid architectures with different authentication mechanisms were modeled and later categorized using the Microsoft STRIDE framework. An analysis of the recommended controls for each threat was performed to determine which controls could and should be put in place by manufacturers or third-party suppliers, and which controls need to be left up the end-user to implement. Fifty-seven threats were identified. Among our key findings: (1) 65% (37/57) of the threats did not involve the luminaires, but rather the other components needed to communicate with and manage them; (2) 63% (36/57) of the threats could have been mitigated through manufacturer-implemented defensive techniques or “controls”; and (3) 23% (13/57) of the threats were dependent on the network configuration. Recommendations based on the results of this work are made to key stakeholder groups. Notably, lighting technology developers are advised to address all threats that can be reasonably controlled with baked-in technology solutions (e.g., encryption or authentication controls), and employ some form of secure supply chain management and tracking where other parts (e.g., sensors, microprocessors) of a luminaire must also be built and manufactured with the proper security controls in place. Developers should also review threats involving assets not developed in-house to understand how connectivity with other devices will affect their product during system operation and determine if a compensating control for a defense-in-depth strategy will be needed. Finally, those interested in deploying CLS should compare the differences between cloud and on-premise models to determine which is more suitable for their needs and the abilities of their security team.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1987

The solar-stellar connection - Internal rotation in low-mass stars

The problem of the internal rotation of stars with masses and internal evolution similar to the sun is investigated, emphasizing the need to construct models of stellar convection zones which are consistent with full interior models. The affect of the distribution of angular momentum within a star on the formation process in a gas cloud and on the internal evolution throughout the premain-sequence phase and the early postmain-sequence phase is considered. The generation of magnetic fields associated with chromospheric activity via the interaction of rotation with convection is discussed. It is noted that rotationally induced mixing can alter the rate of evolution, thus affecting the luminosity function of star clusters.

Demarque, Pierre↗
NASA NTRS2017

Atmospheric Waves and Dynamics Beneath Jupiters Clouds from Radio Wavelength Observations

We observed Jupiter at wavelengths near 2 cm with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) in February 2015. These frequencies are mostly sensitive to variations in ammonia abundance and probe between approx. 0.5- 2.0 bars of pressure in Jupiters atmosphere; within and below the visible cloud deck which has its base near 0.7 bars. The resultant observed data were projected into a cylindrical map of the planet with spatial resolution of approx. 1500 km at the equator. We have examined the data for atmospheric waves and observed a prominent bright belt of radio hotspot features near 10 N, likely connected to the same equatorial wave associated with the 5-m hotspots. We conducted a passive tracer power spectral wave analysis for the entire map and latitude regions corresponding to eastward and westward jets and compare our results to previous studies. The power spectra analysis revealed that the atmosphere sampled in our observation (excluding the NEB region) is in a 2-D turbulent regime and its dynamics are predominately governed by the shallow water equations. The Great Red Spot (GRS) is also very prominent and has a noticeable meridional asymmetry and we compare it, and nearby storms, with optical images. We find that the meridional radio profile has a global north-south hemisphere distinction and find correlations of it to optical intensity banding and to shear zones of the zonal wind profile over select regions of latitude. Amateur optical images taken before and after our observation complemented the radio wave- length map to investigate dynamics of the equatorial region in Jupiters atmosphere. We find that two radio hotspots at 2 cm are well correlated with optical plumes in the NEB, additionally revealing they are not the same 5 m hotspot features correlated with optical dark patches between adjacent plumes. This analysis exploits the VLAs upgraded sensitivity and explores the opportunities now possible when studying gas giants, especially atmospheric dynamics of layers beneath upper level clouds.

radio observations↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Cybersecurity Threat Profile for a Connected Lighting System

In this paper we analyze a threat profile performed on a fault-detection use case for streetlights. A threat profile establishes security requirements, justifies security measures, yields actionable controls, and effectively communicates risk to stakeholders. This effort provides critical information for making threat-based decisions to increase security at a reasonable cost, and can effectively be used by development teams, software architects, and managers to make cybersecurity a part of their ongoing culture of awareness, training, and prevention. This leads to more secure systems and better-understood security. On-premise, cloud, and hybrid architectures with different authentication mechanisms were modeled and later categorized using the Microsoft STRIDE framework. An analysis of the recommended controls for each threat was performed to determine which controls could and should be put in place by manufacturers or third-party suppliers, and which controls need to be left up the end-user to implement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Criterion for convection in an inhomogeneous star

To resolve the question of whether the Schwarzschild criterion or the Ledoux criterion should be used to test for convective instability in a star, a well-observed cluster of chemically inhomogeneous massive stars, in which the choice of the criterion for convection makes a crucial and easily observable difference, is required. NGC 330, a metal-poor cluster in the Small Magellanic Cloud, is ideal for this test. Its large evolved stellar population contains both blue and red supergiants, of which its many red supergiants should be absent if a gradient of mean molecular weight did not choke off rapid convective motions in the inhomogeneous region connecting the envelope and core. Thus the Ledoux criterion for convection is strongly indicated as being correct.

Stothers, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the most abundant, large, carbon-based, molecular species in the interstellar medium (ISM). They are responsible for a series of prominent infrared (IR) emission features that dominate the IR spectra of many astronomical sources. The recent detection of cyano-naphthalene in TMC-1 (molecular cloud) and fullerenes in Tc 1 (planetary nebula) bracket the presumed evolutionary pathway of astronomical PAHs; from their formation to ending up in their most-stable forms. Furthermore, their discovery indicates a rich, complex ongoing PAH chemistry. Significant progress has been made in connecting the (photo)chemical evolution of the astronomical PAH population to variations observed in the interstellar PAH IR bands. Subsequently, these variations have been tied to distinct stages of the stellar life-cycle. However, questions remain regarding some components of the astronomical PAH IR emission spectrum. One concerns the origin and evolution of the weaker plateaus that sit beneath the main features and extend from roughly 3.2-3.6, 6-9, 11-15, and 15-20 µm. Observations from JWST will provide the opportunity to investigate subtle changes in the PAH IR bands with unprecedented sensitivity. This presents an exciting opportunity for the field of astrochemistry.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons;↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developments on two lithium vapor-box linear test-stand experiments

The lithium vapor-box divertor is a possible fusion power exhaust solution.It uses condensation pumping to create a gradient of vapor density in a divertor slot; this should allow a stable detachment front without active feedback.As initial explorations of the concept, two test stands which take the form of three connected cylindrical stainless steel boxes are being developed: one without plasma at PPPL, to test models of lithium evaporation and flow; and one for the linear plasma device Magnum-PSI (at DIFFER in Eindhoven, The Netherlands) to test the ability of a lithium vapor cloud to induce volumetric detachment and redistribute the plasma power.The first experiment uses boxes with diameters of 6 cm, joined by apertures with diameters of 2.2 cm. Up to 1 g of Li is placed in one box, which is heated to up to 600 degrees C. The Li evaporates, then flows to and condenses in the two other, cooler boxes over several minutes. The quantity of Li transported is assessed by weighing the boxes before and after the heating cycle, and is compared to the quantity predicted to flow for the box at its measured temperature using a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo code, SPARTA. With good experimental conditions, the two values agree to within 15%.The experiment on Magnum-PSI is in the conceptual design stage.The design is assessed by simulations using the code B2.5-Eunomia.They show that when the hydrogen-ion plasma beam, with n_e = 4e20 per cubic meter, T_e = 1.5 eV, and r = 1 cm, is passed through a 16 cm long, 12 Pa, 625 degree C Li vapor cloud, the plasma heat flux and pressure on the target are significantly reduced compared to the case without Li.With the Li present, the plasma is cooled by excitation of Li neutrals followed by radiation until it volumetrically recombines, lowering the heat flux from 3.7 MW/m^2 to 0.13 MW/m^2, and the pressure is reduced by 93%, largely by collisions of hydrogen ions with neutral Li.

divertor↗
NASA NTRS1983

Atmospheric pressure and temperature profiling using near IR differential absorption lidar

The present investigation is concerned with differential absorption lidar techniques for remotely measuring the atmospheric temperature and pressure profile, surface pressure, and cloud top pressure-height. The procedure used in determining the pressure is based on the conduction of high-resolution measurements of absorption in the wings of lines in the oxygen A band. Absorption with respect to these areas is highly pressure sensitive in connection with the mechanism of collisional line broadening. The method of temperature measurement utilizes a determination of the absorption at the center of a selected line in the oxygen A band which originates from a quantum state with high ground state energy.

Korb, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

What Controls the Temperature of the Arctic Stratosphere during the Spring?

Understanding the mechanisms that control the temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is key to understanding ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex. Spring ozone loss rates are directly tied to polar stratospheric temperatures by the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, and the conversion of chlorine species to reactive forms on these cloud particle surfaces. In this paper, we study those factors that control temperatures in the polar lower stratosphere. We use the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis data covering the last two decades to investigate how planetary wave driving of the stratosphere is connected to polar temperatures. In particular, we show that planetary waves forced in the troposphere in mid- to late winter (January-February) are principally responsible for the mean polar temperature during the March period. These planetary waves are forced by both thermal and orographic processes in the troposphere, and propagate into the stratosphere in the mid and high latitudes. Strong mid-winter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak mid-winter forcing leads to cooler Arctic temperatures.

Newman, Paul A.↗