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A Machine Learning-based Approach to Predict the Aggregate Flexibility of HVAC Systems
Use of renewable energy resources can play a significant role in mitigation of climate change since they reduce the dependency on fossil fuels. However, high penetration of renewable energy resources into the power grid may cause some reliability problems. Ancillary services are key to realize the potential of renewable resources without disturbing the grid reliability. In recent years, many control approaches focused on exploiting the aggregate flexible heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads of buildings. However, there are still research gaps in assessing in advance the resulting indoor temperature responses for given total power and weather profiles before implementing the controls in the buildings. Such an assessment is critical to guarantee satisfying both the grid related objective (reliability) and the building related objective (occupants' comfort). Towards addressing this research gap, this paper presents a machine-learning approach for predicting the ratings of indoor temperature responses. In this approach, a prediction model was developed using a dataset generated by a set of model-free control simulations. The developed model achieved high prediction accuracy and showed the potential of the proposed approach.
Further engineering of R. toruloides for the production of terpenes from lignocellulosic biomass
Abstract Background Mitigation of climate change requires that new routes for the production of fuels and chemicals be as oil-independent as possible. The microbial conversion of lignocellulosic feedstocks into terpene-based biofuels and bioproducts represents one such route. This work builds upon previous demonstrations that the single-celled carotenogenic basidiomycete, Rhodosporidium toruloides , is a promising host for the production of terpenes from lignocellulosic hydrolysates. Results This study focuses on the optimization of production of the monoterpene 1,8-cineole and the sesquiterpene α-bisabolene in R. toruloides . The α-bisabolene titer attained in R. toruloides was found to be proportional to the copy number of the bisabolene synthase (BIS) expression cassette, which in turn influenced the expression level of several native mevalonate pathway genes. The addition of more copies of BIS under a stronger promoter resulted in production of α-bisabolene at 2.2 g/L from lignocellulosic hydrolysate in a 2-L fermenter. Production of 1,8-cineole was found to be limited by availability of the precursor geranylgeranyl pyrophosphate (GPP) and expression of an appropriate GPP synthase increased the monoterpene titer fourfold to 143 mg/L at bench scale. Targeted mevalonate pathway metabolite analysis suggested that 3-hydroxy-3-methyl-glutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGR), mevalonate kinase (MK) and phosphomevalonate kinase (PMK) may be pathway bottlenecks are were therefore selected as targets for overexpression. Expression of HMGR, MK, and PMK orthologs and growth in an optimized lignocellulosic hydrolysate medium increased the 1,8-cineole titer an additional tenfold to 1.4 g/L. Expression of the same mevalonate pathway genes did not have as large an impact on α-bisabolene production, although the final titer was higher at 2.6 g/L. Furthermore, mevalonate pathway intermediates accumulated in the mevalonate-engineered strains, suggesting room for further improvement. Conclusions This work brings R. toruloides closer to being able to make industrially relevant quantities of terpene from lignocellulosic biomass.
Comparison of MeshGraphNet Techniques for Subsurface Behavior Prediction during CO2 Sequestration
Carbon sequestration is a vital part of the effort to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. Previously, we have shown that Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) provide the ability to extract meaningful insights during prediction of subsurface behavior in carbon storage projects. However, these models have struggled with long-term prediction accuracy due to error accumulation caused by autoregressive prediction. This research leverages the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset to examine strategies for minimizing loss over time in a MeshGraphNet GNN model to improve reliability of predictions while minimizing inferencing time.
Climate-focused Life Cycle Assessments of Biochar Production by an ARTi Pyrolysis Reactor and an Air Burners CharBoss® Air Curtain Incinerator
This report presents a limited, dynamic, consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the climate impacts of two biochar production methods using wood as a feedstock. The two methods are a pyrolysis reactor supplied by ARTi (Des Moines, IA, https://www.arti.com/) and a T26 CharBoss® air curtain incinerator supplied by Air Burners, Inc. (Palm City, FL, https://airburners.com/). The underlying LCA methodology is described in a chapter by Singh et al. (2024) and implemented in the form of a workbook freely available as online Supplementary Material for the chapter. For the convenience of the reader, a pre-print version of the relevant portions of Singh et al. (2024) is attached as Appendix A to this report. Specific assumptions and calculations to obtain the input parameters used in this LCA for each production method are described in the Methodology section below. This implementation of the LCA considers emissions associated with biomass loading, comminution and conversion, biochar decay in soil, and the production and use of bioenergy generated during the conversion process. The LCA is “limited” in that upstream emissions associated with biomass production, harvest, transportation, and land-use change, as well as embodied emissions in equipment and facilities are not considered. Similarly, downstream emissions from biochar transport and incorporation into soil (i.e., tillage), and the impact of biochar soil amendments on soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (other than CO 2 from biochar decay in soil), soil organic carbon stocks, crop response, and surface albedo are not considered. As the intent is to compare different biochar production methods in a simple unbiased manner, the primary alternative biomass pathway for the LCA is immaculate combustion, which is the hypothetical instantaneous and complete conversion of carbon in the biomass to CO 2 at time zero without generation of any other greenhouse gases or aerosols (GHGAs) or any useful bioenergy. Use of this pathway provides relative values for the production methods and, when the embodied emissions are similar and the same feedstock is used, these relative values are reasonable approximations for those attained with a full LCA.
Counterfactuals to Assess Effects to Species and Systems from Renewable Energy Development
Renewable energy production, mostly via wind, solar, and biofuels, is central to goals worldwide to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate anthropogenic climate change (IPCC, 2014; Portner et al., 2021). Nevertheless, adverse impacts to natural systems, especially fatalities of wildlife and alteration of habitat, are key challenges for renewable energy production (Allison et al., 2019; Katzner et al., 2019).
Opportunities for agrivoltaic systems to achieve synergistic food-energy-environmental needs and address sustainability goals
Achieving decarbonization goals to address global climate change and increasing energy needs requires significant continued investments in solar energy. The expansion of utility-scale solar development across the globe has increased the pressure on land resources for energy generation and other land uses (e.g., agriculture, biodiversity conservation). To address this growing issue, greater emphasis has been placed on solar development strategies that maximize the benefits of solar energy generation and multiple ecosystem services, such as the development of agrivoltaics systems that co-locate solar energy production and various forms of conservation and agricultural land uses. The purpose of this paper is to systematically synthesize the potential ecosystem services of agrivoltaics and summarize how these development strategies could address several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our review will focus on four broad potential ecosystem services of agrivoltaics: (1) energy and economic benefits; (2) agricultural provisioning services of food production and animal husbandry; (3) biodiversity conservation; and (4) regulating ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and water and soil conservation. In particular, we will highlight the state of the science, challenges, and knowledge gaps that represent opportunities for further study to better understand how solar energy deployment can facilitate sustainable development.
Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment
Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.
Lifecycle Assessment and Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochar Pellet Production from Forest Residues and Field Application
Biochar produced from low-value forest biomass can provide substantial benefits to ecosystems and mitigate climate change-induced risks such as forest fires. Forest residues from restoration activities and timber harvest and biochar itself are bulky and thus incur high logistic costs, so are considered major bottlenecks for the commercialization of the biochar industry. The objectives of this study were to assess the environmental footprints and techno-economic feasibility of converting forest residues in Pacific Northwest United States into biochar pellets using portable systems followed by delivery of the final product to end-users for land application (dispersion). Two portable systems (Biochar Solutions Incorporated (BSI) and Air Curtain Burner (ACB)) were considered for biochar production. A cradle-to-grave lifecycle assessment (LCA) and a discounted cash flow analysis method were used to quantify the environmental impacts and minimum selling price (MSP) of biochar. The global warming (GW) impact of biochar production through BSI and ACB was estimated to be 306–444, and 750–1016 kgCO₂eq/tonne biochar applied to the field, respectively. The MSP of biochar produced through BSI and ACB was 1674–1909 and 528–1051 USD/tonne biochar applied to the field, respectively. Pelletizing of biochar reduced GW impacts during outbound logistics (~8–20%) but increased emissions during pelletizing (~1–9%). Results show the BSI system was a more viable option in terms of GW impact, whereas the ACB system can produce biochar with lower MSP. The results of the study conclude that the production of biochar pellets through the two portable systems and applied to fields can be both an environmentally beneficial and economically viable option.
Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions
The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.
Portuguese Wood Pellets Market: Organization, Production and Consumption Analysis
Wood pellets are a form of energy that can be seen as an alternative to fossil fuels, thus contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, wood pellets can be considered a solution contributing to the mitigation of climate change. The use of wood pellets has grown significantly in recent years, with different markets emerging, such as Portugal, both from production and consumption perspectives. The wood pellet industry in Portugal began its development about 15 years ago, with the companies installed in the country initially almost exclusively dedicated to the production of wood pellets for export to central and northern European markets. However, over the years, the domestic market, initially considered insignificant, began to develop; it recently reached a considerable consuming share of the national production. This study presents an analysis of the Portuguese wood pellet market using data collected on the sector, and specifically on producers and consumers. The information was gathered using surveys presented directly to consumers and producers and through interviews with other stakeholders in the sector. From the analysis of the information, it was possible to understand the market’s dynamics, its current evolution and its prospects for the upcoming years, since it can already be considered mature and consolidated.
MSD CoP Webinar: Accounting for distributive justice in model-based decision support
Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Model-based analyses play an ever-increasing role in informing policy and decision-making. However, many large-scale societal challenges unavoidably involve questions about the fair distribution of positive and negative consequences. How are the costs of the energy transition distributed over households and businesses? How are flood risks redistributed under different flood risk management plans? How are the impacts of climate change and climate mitigation distributed over different parts of the world?These kinds of questions play an important role when deliberating public policy, and the lack, in many cases, of clear answers becomes an obstacle to decision-making. At recent COPs, for example, wicked questions about loss and damages and the phase-out versus phase-down of coal became obstacles to global climate action, illustrating the misalignment of the direction of scientific research and decision-makers' information needs. In this talk, I'll explore advances that are being made that enable analysts to start providing grounded model-based answers to questions of distributive justice, as well as argue that analysts should embrace and explicate the normative nature of their work instead of hiding behind the purported neutrality of science. Presenters: Dr. Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology) Moderator(s): Rebecca Saari (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Univ. of Waterloo), Matt Sparks (Univ. of Waterloo); Sarah Fletcher (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Stanford University), Juan Moreno-Cruz (Univ. of Waterloo), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 13, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET
Environmental impact of national and subnational carbon policies in China based on a multi-regional dynamic CGE model
Carbon policies are important not only for mitigating global climate change, but also for controlling local and regional air pollution. The large regional disparities in economic development and air pollution across China calls for regionally differentiated policies. Previous studies have not systematically investigated the environmental impacts of regional carbon policies in China covering different spatial scales. This study constructs a multi-regional dynamic computable general quilibrium (CGE) model covering 30 provinces of China to assess the impacts of national and subnational carbon polices on CO2 emissions and co-emitted air pollutants from 2020 to 2050. We consider one national carbon policy which aims to achieve China’s 2030 national CO2 abatement target, as well as three regional policies with the same policy stringency as the national one but only applied to eastern China (EP), the Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang area (JSZP), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (BTHP), respectively. We find that regional policies (EP, JSZP, and BTHP) are as effective in reducing CO2 emissions in their targeted regions as the national policy. However, they lead to an increase in CO2 emissions in untargeted regions (the so-called “emissions leakage”). The CO2 leakage rates, which depend on the policy spatial coverage, are 4%, 13%, and 65% for EP, JSZP, and BTHP, respectively, in 2050. Compared with CO2, changes in air pollutant emissions, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), exhibit a similar pattern under all policy scenarios, but the magnitude of change is significantly smaller. Transportation, thermal power, and some energy intensive industries are the three largest contributors to CO2 and air pollutant emission reductions. Our results suggest that regional carbon policy is effective in reducing CO2 and air pollutant emissions in the targeted regions, and extending the spatial coverage or increasing policy stringency can largely inhibit emissions leakage.
Global Impacts of Enhancing Domestic Ecosystem Carbon Sinks (WBS#1.1.1.7/1.1.1.8)
This project's objective is to quantify the potential impacts of domestic terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink expansions on global agriculture production, land use, and emissions. It addresses the EERE decarbonization of agriculture pillar by assessing the impact of varying carbon prices on future U.S. and global agricultural practices and the resulting domestic availability of land for energy and commodity crops to meet U.S. energy and global food-feed demand and targets.
Gap Analysis of Global Climate Agreements
As climate change progresses, there will be greater pressure on state and nonstate actors to mitigate associated harms. This pressure will encourage aggressive action on climate change, including more ambitious emissions reduction goals and the use of both conventional and novel environmental modification techniques. Existing international agreements—including the Paris Agreement and the Environmental Modification Convention (ENMOD)—are critical to ensuring that climate change mitigation is achieved through peaceful, meaningful, and sustainable methods. With this in mind, this paper provides an overview of the Paris Agreement and ENMOD and identifies updates required for these agreements to meet the evolving challenges of climate change.
Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan
Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.
Estimating the Impacts of Increasing Temperatures and the Efficacy of Climate Adaptation Strategies in Urban Microclimates with Deep Learning
As urbanization and climate change progress, understanding and addressing urban heat becomes a priority for climate adaptation efforts. High temperatures concentrated in the urban core can drive increased risk of heat-related death and illness as well as increased energy demand for cooling. However, modeling the urban microclimate is an ongoing field of research typically burdened by an imprecise description of the built environment, incomplete observational records, significant computational cost, and a lack of high-resolution estimates of the impacts of increasing temperatures. Here, we present computationally efficient machine learning methods that can improve the accuracy of urban temperature estimates when compared to historical reanalysis data. These models are applied to a neighborhood in Los Angeles, and we compare the energy benefits of heat mitigation strategies to the impacts of climate change. We find that cooling demand is likely to increase substantially through midcentury, but engineered high-albedo surfaces could lessen this increase by more than 50 %. The corresponding increase in winter gas heating offsets the summer cooling benefit in the current climate, but total annual energy use from combined heating and cooling with electric heat pumps benefits from the engineered heat mitigation strategies under both current and future climates.
Assisted migration in a warmer and drier climate: less climate buffering capacity, less facilitation and more fires at temperate latitudes?
Assisted tree migration has been proposed as a conceptual solution to mitigate lags in biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. The rationale behind this concept is that tree species currently growing under warmer and drier climates will be more resistant and resilient to the new climatic conditions than tree species naturally growing in currently wetter and colder climates. However, we hypothesize that, by being more stress‐tolerant to warmer and drier conditions, translocated species should exhibit different functional attributes, which could induce important ecological and societal costs and overcome the desired benefits of maintaining wood production and other ecosystem services. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to analyze variation in seven traits of 106 tree and tall shrub species from contrasting latitudinal distributions in western North America and Europe to predict the potential functional changes of forest ecosystems due to the translocation of tree species from low to high latitudes. We show that species from both continents differed primarily by their position on the leaf economy spectrum (LES) and their size traits. Even though, in Europe, differences in LES were significantly correlated to species southern latitudinal positions, in both continents differences in size traits were significantly correlated to latitude. These results suggest that assisted migration by translocating more conservative species of shorter stature in currently cooler climates should decrease the buffering capacity of forest canopies, decrease facilitation for understory species, and increase wildfire risks, whose effects have the potential to accelerate climate warming through negative atmospheric feedback processes. As an alternative solution to assisted migration that may accelerate rather than mitigate climate change, we recommend that foresters gradually diversify the vertical structure and layering of the existing forest canopy to maintain a sustainable water cycle and energy balance between the soil, the tree and the atmosphere without increasing the wildfire risk.