G3P3 Panel: Technoeconomic and Scaling Considerations for Gen3 Particle Technology.
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The National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at Sandia National Laboratories New Mexico (SNL/NM) developed this Life Cycle Management Plan (LCMP) to document its process for executing, monitoring, controlling and closing-out Phase 3 of the Gen 3 Particle Pilot Plant (G3P3). This plan serves as a resource for stakeholders who wish to be knowledgeable of project objectives and how they will be accomplished.
This report summarizes the needs, challenges, and opportunities associated with carbon-free energy and energy storage for manufacturing and industrial decarbonization. Energy needs and challenges for different manufacturing and industrial sectors (e.g., cement/steel production, chemicals, materials synthesis) are identified. Key issues for industry include the need for large, continuous on-site capacity (tens to hundreds of megawatts), compatibility with existing infrastructure, cost, and safety. Energy storage technologies that can potentially address these needs, which include electrochemical, thermal, and chemical energy storage, are presented along with key challenges, gaps, and integration issues. Analysis tools to value energy storage technologies in the context of manufacturing and industrial decarbonizations are also presented. Material is drawn from the Energy Storage for Manufacturing and Industrial Decarbonization (Energy StorM) Workshop, held February 8 - 9, 2022. The objective was to identify research opportunities and needs for the U.S. Department of Energy as part of its Energy Storage Grand Challenge program.
Particle heat exchangers are a critical enabling technology for next generation concentrating solar power (CSP) plants that use supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) as a working fluid. This report covers the design, manufacturing and testing of a prototype particle-to-sCO 2 heat exchanger targeting thermal performance levels required to meet commercial scale cost targets. In addition, the the design and assembly of integrated particle and sCO 2 flow loops for heat exchanger performance testing are detailed. The prototype heat exchanger was tested to particle inlet temperatures of 500 °C at 17 MPa which resulted in overall heat transfer coefficients of approximately 300 W/m 2 -K at the design point and cases using high approach temperature with peak values as high as 400 W/m 2 -K
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Cement production for concrete has been responsible for ~7–8% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and nearly equally contribution for steel production processes (EPA, 2020). In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, a novel solution has to be investigated. This project aims to develop fundamental mechanistic understanding and experimental characterization to create a 3D printable biopolymer concrete using plant-based polyurethane as an innovative and sustainable alternative for Portland cement concrete, with significantly low carbon footprint. Future construction will utilize the advances in digital additive manufacturing (3D printing) to produce optimal geometries with a minimum waste of materials. Understanding the polymerization process, factors impacting the composite rheology, and the structural behavior of this biopolymer concrete will enable us to engineer the next generation of concrete structures with low carbon footprint. This project aims to improve the nation’s ability to control Greenhouse Gas emission neutrality for the set goal of 2050 via introducing a structurally viable bio-based polymer concrete.
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This report documents the results and conclusions of a recent project to understand the technoeconomics of utility-scale, particle-based concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities leveraging unique operational strategies. This project included two primary objectives. The first project objective was to build confidence in the modeling approaches applied to falling particle receivers (FPRs) including the effect s of wind. The second project objective was to create the necessary modeling capability to adequately predict and maximize the annual performance of utility-scale, particle-based CSP plants under anticipated conditions with and without active heliostat control. Results of an extensive model validation study provided the strongest evidence to date for the modeling strategies typically applied to FPRs, albeit at smaller receiver scales. This modeling strategy was then applied in a parametric study of candidate utility-scale FPRs, including both free-falling and multistage FPR concepts, to develop reduced order models for predicting the receiver thermal efficiency under anticipated environmental and operating conditions. Multistage FPRs were found to significantly improve receiver performance at utility-scales. These reduced order models were then leveraged in a sophisticated technoeconomic analysis to optimize utility-scale , particle-based CSP plants considering the potential of active heliostat control. In summary, active heliostat control did not show significant performance benefits to future utility-scale CSP systems though some benefit may still be realized in FPR designs with wide acceptance angles and/or with lower concentration ratios. Using the latest FPR technologies available, the levelized-cost of electricity was quantified for particle-based CSP facilities with nominal powers ranging from 5 MW e up to 100 MW e with many viable designs having costs < 0.06 $/kWh and local minimums occurring between ~25–35 MW e .
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We report an analysis quantifying the contribution to uncertainty in annual energy projections from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance. Uncertainty in measured irradiance is quantified for eight instruments by the difference from a well maintained, secondary standard pyranometer which is regarded as truthful. We construct a statistical model of irradiance uncertainty and apply the model to generate a sample of 100 annual time series of irradiance for each instrument. The sample is propagated through a common performance model for a reference photovoltaic system to quantify variation in annual energy. Although the measured irradiance varies from the reference by a few percent (standard deviation of 1-2%) the uncertainty in annual energy is on the order of a fraction of one percent. We propose a model for a factor that represents uncertainty in modeled annual energy that arises from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance.
Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.
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The Solar Forecast Arbiter is an open-source evaluation framework for solar forecasting. The framework enables evaluations of solar irradiance, solar power, and net-load forecasts that are impartial, repeatable and auditable. The Solar Forecast Arbiter addresses stakeholder-informed use cases including evaluation of forecast skill, comparisons to reference data sets, private forecast trials, and evaluation of probabilistic forecast skill. The framework includes a data validation toolkit, reference data sources, data privacy protocols, and benchmark forecast capabilities for intra-hour and day ahead forecast horizons. Reports and metrics communicate the relative merits of the test and benchmark forecasts. The reports are created from standardized templates and include graphics for qualitatively evaluating deterministic and probabilistic forecasts and standard metrics for quantitatively evaluating forecasts. The Solar Forecast Arbiter is designed to support all solar forecasting stakeholders, including Solar Forecasting 2 Topic Area 2 and Topic Area 3 teams.
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