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At least 325 records · Page 18

Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study

Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Case Report: Differential diagnosis of hematuria in the emergency department: emphasizing double J stent-inferior vena cava fistula

Introduction Hematuria, a common clinical indicator of genitourinary tract pathology, arises from diverse etiologies including calculi, infections, malignancies, trauma, and iatrogenic causes. Initial evaluation requires hemodynamic assessment, identification of underlying causes, and urinary drainage optimization. This report highlights a rare case of iatrogenic hematuria secondary to double-J stent migration into the inferior vena cava. Case presentation A Chinese male presented with acute left flank pain and gross hematuria persisting for 4 h. Diagnostic imaging revealed a left ureteral stone, prompting double-J stent placement at a local hospital. Despite intervention, hematuria worsened, necessitating abdominal CT. Imaging identified proximal migration of the left double-J stent into the inferior vena cava, with no evidence of vascular injury. Due to concerns regarding inadequate drainage and infection risk, conservative management without catheter clamping was initiated prior to referral. Definitive treatment involved ureteroscopic stent removal under direct visualization at our institution, resulting in rapid symptom resolution. Conclusion This case emphasizes three critical clinical insights: (1) Persistent postoperative hematuria warrants consideration of iatrogenic causes, particularly following urologic device placement. (2) Imaging modalities, especially CT, are indispensable for detecting atypical stent migration. (3) Comprehensive history-taking must include prior urologic interventions to guide differential diagnosis. While double-J stent migration into major vessels remains exceptionally rare, its recognition prevents delayed management of potentially life-threatening complications. Clinicians should maintain heightened vigilance for device-related hematuria in patients with refractory symptoms post-procedurally, ensuring prompt imaging evaluation and multidisciplinary intervention when indicated.

Qi, Wenqi↗

Implementing Large-Scale CCS in Complex Geologic Reservoirs: Insights from Three Appalachian Basin Case Studies

This paper presents three design case studies for implementing large-scale geologic carbon storage in the Appalachian Basin region of the midwestern United States. While the Appalachian Basin has a challenging setting for carbon storage, the three case studies detailed in this article demonstrate that there are realistic options for implementing carbon storage in the basin. Carbonate rock formations, depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, and moderate-porosity sandstones can be utilized as carbon-storage reservoirs in the Appalachian Basin. While these are not typical concepts for CO2 storage, the storage zones have advantages such as defined trapping mechanisms, multiple caprocks, and defined boundaries that are not always present in thick, permeable sandstones being targeted for many carbon-storage projects. The geologic setting, geotechnical parameters, and hydrologic setting for the three case studies are provided, along with the results of reservoir simulations of the CO2 injection-deployment strategies. The geological rock formations available for CO2 storage in the Appalachian Basin are more localized reservoirs with defined boundaries and finite storage capacities. Simulation results showed that accessing carbon-storage resources in these fields may require wellfields with 2–10 injection wells. However, these fields would have the capacity to inject 1–3 million metric tons of CO2 per year and up to 90 million metric tons of CO2 in total. The CO2 storage resources would fulfill decarbonization goals for many of the natural-gas power plants, cement plants, hydrogen plants, and refineries in the Appalachian Basin region.

Sminchak, Joel↗

Effect of Packing Nonuniformity at the Fiber Bundle–Case Interface on Performance of Hollow Fiber Membrane Gas Separation Modules

High-fidelity simulations of momentum and mass transfer within a hollow fiber gas separation membrane module are here reported. The simulations capture the potential detrimental effects of poor fiber packing at the bundle–case interface on fluid distribution and performance. Results are presented for both circular and planar fiber bundles. The length over which bundle–case gaps affects flow is determined. The length increases dramatically with increasing fiber packing fraction. As the packing fraction approaches 0.6, the impact extends over the entire bundle diameter for small modules (<1000 fibers). The results clearly demonstrate the detrimental effect of poor packing along the case and can be used to develop module manufacturing guidelines. To reduce computational costs, an equivalent planar bundle module approximation is developed. The approximate simulations agree well with results from full 3-D simulations and can reduce computational costs without sacrificing fidelity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the Orbital Elements of the Two-body Problem with Slowly Decreasing Mass: The Gyldén–Mestchersky Cases

We study the dynamics of two-body problems with gravitational parameters μ = μ(t) decreasing with the time. In particular we focus our attention on the behavior of the orbital elements in the first two Gyldén–Mestchersky cases: in the first case (GM-I) μ(t)=μ{sub 0}(1+αt){sup −1}, where μ{sub 0} is the constant initial value of the parameter and α a small positive constant. In the second case (GM-II) μ(t)=μ{sub 0}(1+2αt){sup −1/2}. In the GM-I problem, using a suitable transformation of the radius vector and the physical time, which reduces the original problem to a pure Kepler problem, we are able to obtain explicit analytical expressions of the orbital elements that hold true for all t⩾0 and therefore derive their asymptotic behavior. Moreover using the alternative scaled time these expressions show clearly their periodic and secular terms. For the GM-II problem a similar transformation to the GM-I problem leads to a perturbed Kepler problem with a radial direction perturbation. Although exact solutions in terms of elliptic functions may be obtained, the use of some integrals leads to analytical expressions of orbital elements that allow us to study their behavior. Finally, some comparisons between the time evolution of elements in both problems are also included.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of casing treatment on overall and blade element performance of a compressor rotor

An axial flow compressor rotor was tested at design speed with six different casing treatments across the rotor tip. Radial surveys of pressure, temperature, and flow angle were taken at the rotor inlet and outlet. Surveys were taken at several weight flows for each treatment. All the casings treatments decreased the weight flow at stall over that for the solid casing. Radial surveys indicate that the performance over the entire radial span of the blade is affected by the treatment across the rotor tip.

Moore, R. D.↗

Acoustic testing of a 1.5 pressure ratio low tip speed fan with casing tip bleed (QEP Fan B scale model)

A scale model of the bypass flow region of a 1.5 pressure ratio, single stage, low tip speed fan was tested with a rotor tip casing bleed slot to determine its effects on noise generation. The bleed slot was located 1/2 inch (1.3 cm) upstream of the rotor leading edge and was configured to be a continuous opening around the circumference. The bleed manifold system was operated over a range of bleed rates corresponding to as much as 6% of the fan flow at approach thrust and 4.25% of the fan flow at takeoff thrust. Acoustic results indicate that a bleed rate of 4% of the fan flow reduces the fan maximum approach 200 foot (61.0 m) sideline PNL 0.5 PNdB and the corresponding takeoff thrust noise 1.1 PNdB below the level with zero bleed. However, comparison of the standard casing (no bleed slot) and the slotted bleed casing with zero bleed shows that the bleed slot itself caused a noise increase.

Kazin, S. B.↗

Application of NASTRAN in nonlinear analysis of a cartridge case neck separation malfunction

The problem of case neck separation malfunction in the field of ammunition structural analysis is investigated. The axi-symmetric solid of revolution RING element was utilized in the manual piecewise linear analysis to obtain the expansion of the wall of the cartridge case and barrel chamber by the pressure of propellant gases and the stresses in the structure. The analysis included the varying material properties along the wall of the case and the chamber. Additional instructions were provided to change the element material ID's without recomputing the entire stiffness matrix.

Yang, J. C. S.↗

Effect of casing treatment of overall performance of axial-flow transonic fan stage with pressure ratio of 1.75 and tip solidity of 1.5

The effect of a number of casing treatments on the overall performance of a 1.75-pressure-ratio, 423-m/sec-tip-speed fan stage was evaluated. The skewed slot configuration with short-open slots over the midportion of the rotor had a stall margin of 23.5 percent, while the solid casing had a stall margin of 15.0 percent. The skewed slot configuration with long open slots extending ahead of and over portion of rotor displaced the stall line to the lowest flow at all speeds tested. At design speed, the peak efficiency for the long, forward open slots was 1 point less than that for the short midopen slots and 3 points less than that for the solid casing.

Osborn, W. M.↗

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics and Optimum Fracture Control Analytical Procedures for a Reusable Solid Rocket Motor Case

A methodology for the reliability analysis of a reusable solid rocket motor case is discussed. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and probability distribution for initial flaw sizes. The developed reliability analysis is used to select the structural design variables of the solid rocket motor case on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds during the projected design life of the case. Effects of failure prevention plans such as nondestructive inspection and the material erosion between missions are also considered in the developed procedure for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure can be modified to consider other similar structures of reusable space vehicle systems with different failure prevention plans.

Hanagud, S.↗

The tantalum-cased tantalum capacitor

Tantalum-cased tantalum capacitors were tested with regard to temperature stability, capacitance ratio, surge current capabilities, shock, vibration, and thermal shock. They were found to be superior to the conventional wet slug tantalum capacitor cased in silver, since they are more resistant to sulfuric acid. The tantalum-cased tantalum capacitors are widely accepted for use in critical electronic equipment because of their excellent performance and reliability.

Moynihan, J. D.↗

Forced baroclinic ocean motions. II - The linear equatorial bounded case

Results obtained in the first part of this paper (1976), which studied forced baroclinic ocean motions in the linear equatorial unbounded case, are extended to the case of an ocean bounded by two meridians. A complete solution for the linear spin-up in response to a switched-on, x-dependent wind stress is obtained in terms of five components: the unbounded nonoscillatory response to the wind stress forcing; the inertia-gravity waves generated when the forcing switches on, together with their reflections; the quasi-geostrophic Rossby modes forming the eastern boundary response and a western boundary layer; and the equatorial Kelvin wave component of the western boundary response. Kelvin waves are generated if the forcings include a zonal wind component that is symmetric about the equator or an antisymmetric meridional wind stress. For non-Kelvin symmetries, spin-up occurs entirely by the effects of Rossby waves emanating from the eastern boundary. The state approaches the steady solution as increasing numbers of these reach an interior point. In Kelvin symmetries, the Rossby waves act to bring the sea surface tilt to the steady value and the spin-up of the tilt proceeds as in non-Kelvin cases.

Cane, M. A.↗

Seasat-A ASVT: Commercial demonstration experiments. Results analysis methodology for the Seasat-A case studies

The SEASAT-A commercial demonstration program ASVT is described. The program consists of a set of experiments involving the evaluation of a real time data distributions system, the SEASAT-A user data distribution system, that provides the capability for near real time dissemination of ocean conditions and weather data products from the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Central to a selected set of commercial and industrial users and case studies, performed by commercial and industrial users, using the data gathered by SEASAT-A during its operational life. The impact of the SEASAT-A data on business operations is evaluated by the commercial and industrial users. The approach followed in the performance of the case studies, and the methodology used in the analysis and integration of the case study results to estimate the actual and potential economic benefits of improved ocean condition and weather forecast data are described.

Source record↗

Reusable solid rocket motor case - Optimum probabilistic fracture control

A methodology for the reliability analysis of a reusable solid rocket motor case is discussed in this paper. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and probability distribution for initial flaw sizes. The developed reliability analysis can be used to select the structural design variables of the solid rocket motor case on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds during the projected design life of the case. Effects on failure prevention plans such as nondestructive inspection and the material erosion between missions can also be considered in the developed procedure for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure that has been discussed in this paper can easily be modified to consider other similar structures of reusable space vehicle systems with different fracture control plans.

Hanagud, S.↗

A description of the NSSL cases used for a simulated VAS retrieval study

A documentation of eight National Severe Storm Laboratory severe storm cases, which serve as a basis for a simulated VISSR Atmospheric Sounder retrieval study, is presented in this paper. Six of the selected cases provide a control data set to complete the statistical information needed for retrieval techniques based upon the use of regression matrices. The other two cases are to be used in the actual retrieval experiments. The selection was based upon the presence of moisture gradients in the analysis region, the availability of satellite images at the selected time periods, and the extent of cloud cover within the observing network.

Mostek, A.↗

Idiopathic orthostatic hypotension: Recent data (eleven cases) and review of the literature

Eight cases of Shy-Drager syndrome and three of Bradbury-Eggleston idiopathic orthostatic hypotension were examined. In all cases, examination of circulatory reflexes showed major dysfunction of the sympathetic vasoconstrictor system. Anomalies in the vagal cardiomoderator system were less constant. Normal urinary elimination of catecholamines was recorded daily. Characteristically, no elevation of blood or urine norepinephrine levels were found in orthostatism. Insulin hypoglycemia normally raised urinary adrenalin elimination in three of ten patients. Plasma dopa-beta-hydroxylase activity was normal. Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system showed variable activity at basal state but usually rose during orthostatism. On the average, very low homovanillic acid levels were found in cerebrospinal fluid before and after probenecid; hydroxyindolacetic acid was normal. Cerebral autoregulation had deteriorated in two of four cases. Physiopathologically the two clinical types are indistinguishable with or without central neurological signs.

Ninet, J.↗

The multicategory case of the sequential Bayesian pixel selection and estimation procedure

A Bayesian technique for stratified proportion estimation and a sampling based on minimizing the mean squared error of this estimator were developed and tested on LANDSAT multispectral scanner data using the beta density function to model the prior distribution in the two-class case. An extention of this procedure to the k-class case is considered. A generalization of the beta function is shown to be a density function for the general case which allows the procedure to be extended.

Pore, M. D.↗