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Satellite microwave rainfall simulations with a three-dimensional dynamical cloud model

The three-dimensional, multicloud model of Tao and Soong (1986) is used to generate three-dimensional distribution of pertinent microphysical and state parameters which are used as input into a microwave radiative transfer model. The model is used to calculate upwelling radiance (brightness temperature) at microwave frequencies from 10 to 183 GHz with an ocean background. The model is used to study the relationship between simulated upwell brightness temperature and the cloud-model-generated rain rate at the surface. It is suggested that these calculations can be used to simulate satellite observed brightness temperature values and to make area-averaged rain rates.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗

Large-scale cosmic microwave background anisotropies in isocurvature baryon open universe models

The large-angular-scale cosmic microwave background anisotropy is calculated in a low-density baryon-dominated universe with isocurvature primordial inhomogeneities. In models in which the initial power spectra of perturbations are steeper than white noise, predictions for the quadrupole moment of the anisotropy are found to be in conflict with existing observational limits, if the universe remained fully ionized and Compton drag inhibited growth of inhomogeneities until z = about 100. In order to lower the amplitude of the anisotropy, it is necessary to substantially prolong the duration of the growth phase of density perturbations, while smearing out fine-scale anisotropies, thereby requiring reionization to occur at a redshift smaller than 100, but larger than the redshift of the last scattering surface (in a reionized model).

Gorski, Krzysztof M.↗

HostSub_GP: Precise Galaxy Background Subtraction in Transient Long-slit Spectroscopy with Gaussian Processes

We present a novel host galaxy subtraction technique in long-slit spectroscopy for extragalactic transients. Unlike classic methods which generally estimate the background using simple interpolation of local galaxy flux in the 2D spectrum, our approach leverages multi-band archival images of the host galaxies to model the background emission from the galaxy in the 2D spectrum. Such imaging encodes the wavelength-dependent galaxy profile along the slit, and is readily accessible through wide-field imaging surveys. We construct a smooth prior for the 2D galaxy profile with a Gaussian process (GP) based on these reference images, and use another GP to model the correlated deviations from the prior in the observed spectrum. This enables accurate inference of the galaxy flux blended with the transient. On synthetic long-slit data of a spiral galaxy extracted from a Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer hyper-spectral cube, the GP method remains robust as long as the host galaxy is spatially resolved and consistently outperforms classic methods. We apply the method to archival Keck spectra of two real transients, SN 2019eix and AT 2019qiz, to further demonstrate how the method uniquely recovers weak spectral features amid strong galaxy contamination, enabling refined constraints on the properties of both transients. We have released the software implementation, HostSub_GP, a scalable toolkit that leverages JAX, with an MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A TRMM Microwave Radiometer Rain Rate Estimation Method with Convective and Stratiform Discrimination

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer brightness temperature data in the 85 GHz channel (T85) reveal distinct local minima (T85min) in a regional map containing a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This is because of relatively small footprint size (approximately 5.5 km) and strong extinction properties in this channel of the TMI. A map of surface rain rate for that region, deduced from simultaneous measurements made by the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite, reveals that these T85(sub min), produced by scattering, correspond to local PR rain maxima. Utilizing the PR rain rate map as a guide, we infer empirically from TMI data the presence of three different kinds of thunderstorms or Cbs. These Cbs are classified as young, mature, and decaying types, and are assumed to have a scale of about 20 km on the average. Two parameters are used to classify these three kinds of Cbs based on the T85 data: a) the magnitude of scattering depression deduced from local T85(sub min) and b) the mean horizontal gradient of T85 around such minima. Knowing the category of a given Cb, we can estimate the rain rate associated with it. Such estimation is done with the help of relationships linking T85min to rain rate in each Cb type. Similarly, a weak background rain rate in all the areas where T85 is less than 260 K is deduced with another relationship linking T85 to rain rate. In our rain retrieval model, this background rain constitutes stratiform rain where the Cbs are absent. Initially, these relationships are optimized or tuned utilizing the PR and TMI data of a few MCS events. After such tuning, the model is applied to independent MCS cases. The areal distribution of light (1-10 mm/hr), moderate (10-20 mm/hr), and intense (>= 20 mm/hr) rain rates are retrieved satisfactorily. Accuracy in the estimates of the light, moderate, and intense rain areas and the mean rain rates associated with such areas in these independent MCS cases is on the average about 15 %. Taking advantage of this ability of our retrieval method, one could derive the latent heat input into the atmosphere over the 760 km wide swath of the TMI radiometer in the tropics.

Prabhakara, C.↗

TMI Rain Rate Estimation Over Land and Ocean Utilizing Convective and Stratiform Discrimination

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer brightness temperature data in the 85 GHz channel (T85) reveal distinct local minima in a regional map containing a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This is because of relatively small footprint size (approximately 5.5 km) and strong extinction properties in this channel of the TMI. A map of rain rate for that region, deduced from simultaneous measurements made by the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite, reveals that these T85 minima, produced by scattering, correspond to local PR rain maxima. Utilizing the PR rain rate map as a guide, we infer from TMI data the presence of three different kinds of thunderstorms or Cbs. They are young, mature, and decaying Cbs that have a scale of about 20 km on the average. Two parameters enable us to infer these three kinds of Cbs objectively: a) the magnitude of scattering depression deduced from local T85 minima and b) the mean horizontal gradient of T85 around such minima. Knowing the category of a given Cb, we can estimate the rain rate associated with it. Such estimation is done with the help of relationships linking T85 minimum to rain rate in each Cb type. Similarly, a weak background rain rate in all the areas where T85 is less than 260 K is deduced with another relationship linking T85 to rain rate. In our rain retrieval model, this background rain constitutes the stratiform rain where the Cbs are absent. Initially, these relationships are optimized or tuned utilizing the PR and TMI data of a few MCS events. After such tuning, the model is applied to independent MCS cases. The areal distribution of light (1-10 mm/hr), moderate (10-20 mm/hr), and intense (> 20 mm/hr) rain rates are retrieved satisfactorally. Accuracy in the estimates of the light, moderate and intense rain areas and the mean rain rates associated with such areas in these independent MCS cases is on the average about 15%. Taking advantage of this ability of our retrieval method, one could derive the latent heat input into the atmosphere over the 760 km wide swath of the TMI radiometer in the tropics.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Object Detection in Natural Backgrounds Predicted by Discrimination Performance and Models

In object detection, an observer looks for an object class member in a set of backgrounds. In discrimination, an observer tries to distinguish two images. Discrimination models predict the probability that an observer detects a difference between two images. We compare object detection and image discrimination with the same stimuli by: (1) making stimulus pairs of the same background with and without the target object and (2) either giving many consecutive trials with the same background (discrimination) or intermixing the stimuli (object detection). Six images of a vehicle in a natural setting were altered to remove the vehicle and mixed with the original image in various proportions. Detection observers rated the images for vehicle presence. Discrimination observers rated the images for any difference from the background image. Estimated detectabilities of the vehicles were found by maximizing the likelihood of a Thurstone category scaling model. The pattern of estimated detectabilities is similar for discrimination and object detection, and is accurately predicted by a Cortex Transform discrimination model. Predictions of a Contrast- Sensitivity- Function filter model and a Root-Mean-Square difference metric based on the digital image values are less accurate. The discrimination detectabilities averaged about twice those of object detection.

Ahumada, A. J., Jr.↗

TOWARD A METHOD FOR SCALING HUMAN BODY MODELS IN AN IMU-BASED WORKFLOW

BACKGROUND Scaled biomechanical models can more accurately inform crew health decisions when tailored to the wide range of astronaut sizes. One component to improve scaling of existing models to better represent each unique astronaut’s size is the individual length scaling of limbs. Traditionally, these lengths are determined by motion capture or manual measurement. A new method is herein proposed for length scaling which can be done by measuring linear and angular accelerations at a desired point during isolated motion around a point of rotation, then calculating the distance between the desired point and point of rotation. When an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) device is placed at the distal point of a limb, the isolated motion is about that limb’s proximal joint. For example, to measure forearm length, an IMU is placed at the wrist, the point of rotation is at the elbow, and the isolated motion is forearm flexion and extension. These calculated lengths are then used to scale models to each unique astronaut’s size, thereby improving the applicability of the model. This method of scaling limb segments can be used for any limb that has an easily defined proximal joint for the limb to rotate around including hands, arms, legs, feet. Utilizing IMUs for data collection also provides the synergistic ability to record data without a dedicated space in a room with many cameras, therefore reducing the data collection footprint, or record data where optical motion capture is not possible, such as inside a spacesuit. METHODS AND RESULTS To test this method, upper body data collection was performed with 5 Xsens DOT IMUs on a single subject. IMUs consist of an accelerometer, a gyroscope, and a magnetometer which collect linear acceleration, angular velocity, and magnetic fluctuations, respectively. Before any ground-based laboratory collection, the magnetic fluctuations are used to correct the heading of the IMU in space relative to the Earth’s magnetic field. The direct measurement of angular velocity is integrated to calculate angular acceleration. Then the linear acceleration ( a ) and angular acceleration (α) are solved using r = at/α to calculate the radius, which in this case is the distance between the IMU and the point of rotation (i.e., segment length). The IMU must be placed at the most distal point of the limb being measured (i.e., ankle if measuring lower leg length) and the test plan must consist of an isolated motion about that limb’s proximal joint (i.e., knee flexion and extension if measuring lower leg length). The distances (radii) calculated at every time interval were filtered (bandpass filter keeping 5th-90th percentile data) to eliminate outliers and spurious data that occur when the isolated motion was stopped or nearly stopped. The remaining distances were averaged, resulting in the calculated limb length. Scaling factors were then computed by dividing the calculated limb length by the unscaled model’s length. These scale factors are plugged into the Scale Tool in OpenSim [1,2] to apply the scaling to the OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model [3,4]. Manual measurements of limb lengths were taken before data collection started and used for comparing against the calculated lengths. The Anthropometric Survey of US Army Personnel (ANSUR II) [5] was also used as a third source of reference for limb length measurements. The following measurements were retrieved from the subject before data collection: 34.5 cm from L1 to C7 (thorax), 25.7 cm from C7 Joint Center (JC) to head vertex (neck and head), 36.3 cm from shoulder JC to elbow JC (humerus), 29.5 cm from elbow JC to wrist JC (forearm), and 16.2 cm from clavicle to acromion (clavicle). Of those five, forearm and humerus lengths were calculated using this proposed method to obtain preliminary results. The forearm length after filtering and averaging was calculated to be 37.6 cm. This is a 28% overestimation from the measured forearm length (29.5 cm). The humerus length after filtering and averaging was calculated to be 47.8 cm. This is a 31% difference from the measured subject length (36.3 cm). Sources of error include imperfect isolated motion (method currently expects that motion should be perfectly circular in a 2D plane, include no rotation of the IMU, and be relatively smooth; a more secure IMU attachment method will help), unrefined filter techniques (removed highest and lowest values with 20% high and low pass filters and no smoothing filters), arbitrary removal of stopped or near stopped data (kept data for only a short range before and after the angular velocity peaking), and a more representative method for removing gravitational acceleration is needed (current method is to zero all accelerations against a baseline taken just before the isolated motion which does not account for the gravitational acceleration changed due to IMU rotation during movement). Addressing these error sources will improve the accuracy of the limb length calculation. Next steps include creating a method for whole-body scaling estimation using individual limb scale factors. Continued pursuit of these techniques is expected to enable acquiring anthropometric information using only IMUs in real-time.

E. K. Marecki↗

Effects of a hot intergalactic medium

One effect a hot intergalactic medium (IGM) would have would be to produce an isotropic X-ray background through thermal bremsstrahlung. Such a background was modeled including both relativistic electron-ion and electron-electron emission; the observed X-ray measurements could be fit with a current temperature of 10.2 keV and Omega (IGM) of 0.27, assuming that the IGM was instantaneously heated at a redshift of 5 and cools by relativistic adiabatic expansion and Compton cooling. Such a hot IGM would also distort the cosmic microwave background spectrum by inverse Compton scattering off relativistic electrons. This distortion was modeled using the relativistic treatment. When including the recent data of Matsumoto et al., an undistorted radiation temperature of 2.86 K and an Omega (IGM) of 0.41 was found.

Taylor, Gregory B.↗

Measurement of the production cross section of a Higgs boson with large transverse momentum in its decays to a pair of τ leptons in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A measurement of the production cross section of a Higgs boson with transverse momentum greater than 250GeV is presented where the Higgs boson decays to a pair of τ leptons. It is based on proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13TeV. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 . Because of the large transverse momentum of the Higgs boson the τ leptons from its decays are boosted and produced spatially close, with their decay products overlapping. Therefore, a dedicated algorithm was developed to reconstruct and identify them. The observed (expected) significance of the measured signal with respect to the standard model background-only hypothesis is 3.5 (2.2) standard deviations. The product of the production cross section and branching fraction is measured to be 1.64 − 0.54 + 0.68 times the standard model expectation. The fiducial differential production cross section is also measured as functions of the Higgs boson and leading jet transverse momenta. This measurement extends the probed large-transverse-momentum region in the ττ final state beyond 600GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Toward shell model interactions with credible uncertainties

Background: The nuclear shell model is a powerful framework for predicting nuclear structure observables, but relies on interaction matrix elements fit to experimental data as its inputs. Extending the shell model's applicability, particularly toward dripline nuclei, requires efficient fitting methods and credible uncertainty quantification. Traditional approaches face computational challenges and may underestimate uncertainties. Purpose: We develop and test a framework combining eigenvector continuation and Markov chain Monte Carlo to efficiently fit shell model interaction matrix elements and quantify their uncertainties. Methods: Eigenvector continuation is used to emulate shell model calculations, reducing computational costs. The emulator enables Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to optimize interaction matrix elements and rigorously assess parametric uncertainties. Here, the framework is benchmarked using the USDB interaction in the 𝑠⁢𝑑 shell. Results: The emulator reproduces the USDB interaction with negligible error, validating its use in shell model fitting applications. However, we find that to obtain credible predictive intervals, the model defect of the shell model itself, rather than experimental or emulator error, must be taken into account in order to obtain credible uncertainties. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient and rigorous approach for fitting shell model interactions and quantifying uncertainties. Further, the normality assumption used in the past appears sufficient to describe the distribution of interaction matrix elements. However, it is crucial to account for model correlations to avoid underestimating uncertainties.

Nuclear forces↗

Response to a comment on Dessert et al. “The dark matter interpretation of the 3.5 keV line is inconsistent with blank-sky observations”

The dark matter explanation of the 3.5 keV line is strongly disfavored by our work in Dessert et al. (2020). Boyarsky et al. (2004) questions that conclusion: modeling additional background lines is claimed to weaken the limit sufficiently to re-allow a dark matter interpretation. Here, we respond as follows. (1) A more conservative limit is obtained by modeling additional lines; this point appeared in its entirety in our work in Dessert et al. (2020), though we also showed that the inclusion of such lines is not necessary. (2) Despite suggestions in Boyarsky et al. (2004), even the more conservative limits strongly disfavor a decaying dark matter origin of the 3.5 keV line.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data-driven and model-agnostic approach to solving combinatorial assignment problems in searches for new physics

We present a novel approach to solving combinatorial assignment problems in particle physics. The correct assignment of decay products to parent particles is achieved in a model-agnostic fashion by introducing a neural network architecture, asswd-, which combines a custom layer based on attention mechanisms and dual autoencoders. We demonstrate how the network, trained purely on background events in an unsupervised setting, is capable of reconstructing correctly hypothetical new particles regardless of their mass, decay multiplicity, and substructure, and produces simultaneously an anomaly score that can be used to efficiently suppress the background. This model allows the extension of the suite of searches for localized excesses to include nonresonant particle pair production where the reconstruction of the two resonant masses is thwarted by combinatorics. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W/sq m in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

Menon, Surabi↗

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W m(exp -2) in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

Menon, Surabi↗

Low-Energy Radon Backgrounds from Electrode Grids in Dual-Phase Xenon TPCs

The dual-phase xenon time projection chamber (TPC) is a powerful technology to detect rare interactions such as scatters of dark matter particles on nuclei. In particular, the built-in gain of ionization signals in a dual-phase TPC makes it sensitive to events in the few-electron regime, as expected from low-mass dark matter interactions. The pursuit of this low-energy sensitivity through ionization-only signal detection has so far been hindered by excessive electron backgrounds observed across experiments. Much of this background is attributed to the plate-out of $^{222}$Rn decay chain isotopes on the high voltage electrode grid surfaces that span the full cross section of the TPC. This work presents a first-principle model constructed for this background, the predictions of which are consistent with data from the LZ and LUX experiments. We then discuss mitigation strategies of this background in future dual-phase TPCs and the possibility of applying this grid background model to ionization-only dark matter searches.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC; KIPAC, Menlo Park]↗

Modeling Aerial Gamma-Ray Backgrounds Using Non-negative Matrix Factorization

Airborne gamma-ray surveys are useful for many applications, ranging from geology and mining to public health and nuclear security. In all these contexts, the ability to decompose a measured spectrum into a linear combination of background source terms can provide useful insights into the data and lead to improvements in the techniques that use spectral energy windows. Multiple methods for the linear decomposition of spectra exist but are subject to various drawbacks, such as allowing negative photon fluxes or requiring detailed Monte Carlo modeling. In this work, we propose using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) as a data-driven approach to spectral decomposition. Using aerial surveys that include flights over water, we demonstrate that the mathematical approach of NMF finds physically relevant structure in the aerial gamma-ray background, namely, that measured spectra can be expressed as the sum of nearby terrestrial emission, distant terrestrial emission, and radon and cosmic emission. Furthermore, these NMF background components are compared with the background components obtained by noise-adjusted singular value decomposition (NASVD), which contain negative photon fluxes and, thus, do not represent the emission spectra in as straightforward a way. Finally, we comment on the potential areas of research that are enabled by NMF decompositions, such as new approaches to spectral anomaly detection and data fusion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗