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NASA NTRS2004

Scale-Free Networks and Commercial Air Carrier Transportation in the United States

Network science, or the art of describing system structure, may be useful for the analysis and control of large, complex systems. For example, networks exhibiting scale-free structure have been found to be particularly well suited to deal with environmental uncertainty and large demand growth. The National Airspace System may be, at least in part, a scalable network. In fact, the hub-and-spoke structure of the commercial segment of the NAS is an often-cited example of an existing scale-free network After reviewing the nature and attributes of scale-free networks, this assertion is put to the test: is commercial air carrier transportation in the United States well explained by this model? If so, are the positive attributes of these networks, e.g. those of efficiency, flexibility and robustness, fully realized, or could we effect substantial improvement? This paper first outlines attributes of various network types, then looks more closely at the common carrier air transportation network from perspectives of the traveler, the airlines, and Air Traffic Control (ATC). Network models are applied within each paradigm, including discussion of implied strengths and weaknesses of each model. Finally, known limitations of scalable networks are discussed. With an eye towards NAS operations, utilizing the strengths and avoiding the weaknesses of scale-free networks are addressed.

Conway, Sheila R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Using IKONOS Imagery to Estimate Surface Soil Property Variability in Two Alabama Physiographies

Knowledge of surface soil properties is used to assess past erosion and predict erodibility, determine nutrient requirements, and assess surface texture for soil survey applications. This study was designed to evaluate high resolution IKONOS multispectral data as a soil- mapping tool. Imagery was acquired over conventionally tilled fields in the Coastal Plain and Tennessee Valley physiographic regions of Alabama. Acquisitions were designed to assess the impact of surface crusting, roughness and tillage on our ability to depict soil property variability. Soils consisted mostly of fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Plinthic Kandiudults at the Coastal Plain site and fine, kaolinitic, thermic Rhodic Paleudults at the Tennessee Valley site. Soils were sampled in 0.20 ha grids to a depth of 15 cm and analyzed for % sand (0.05 - 2 mm), silt (0.002 -0.05 mm), clay (less than 0.002 mm), citrate dithionite extractable iron (Fe(sub d)) and soil organic carbon (SOC). Four methods of evaluating variability in soil attributes were evaluated: 1) kriging of soil attributes, 2) co-kriging with soil attributes and reflectance data, 3) multivariate regression based on the relationship between reflectance and soil properties, and 4) fuzzy c-means clustering of reflectance data. Results indicate that co-kriging with remotely sensed data improved field scale estimates of surface SOC and clay content compared to kriging and regression methods. Fuzzy c-means worked best using RS data acquired over freshly tilled fields, reducing soil property variability within soil zones compared to field scale soil property variability.

Sullivan, Dana↗

NASA NTRS2006

Topside sounders as mobile ionospheric heaters

There is evidence that satellite-borne RF sounders can act as mobile ionospheric heaters in addition to performing topside sounding. The main objective of topside sounding is to use sounder-generated electromagnetic (em) waves to obtain ionospheric topside vertical electron-density (N(sub e) profiles. These profiles are obtained from mathematical inversions of the frequency vs. delay-time ionospheric reflection traces. In addition to these em reflection traces, a number of narrowband intense signals are observed starting at zero delay times after the transmitted pulses. Some of these signals, termed plasma resonances, appear at characteristic frequencies of the ambient medium such as at the electron cyclotron frequency f(sub ce), the harmonics nf(sub ce), the electron plasma frequency f(sub pe) and the upper-hybrid frequency f(sub uh), where (f(sub uh))(exp 2) = (f(sub ce))(exp 2) + (f(sub pe))(exp 2) . These signals have been attributed to the oblique echoes of sounder-generated electrostatic (es) waves. These resonances provide accurate in situ f(sub pe) and f(sub ce) values which, in turn, lead to accurate N(sub e) and [B] values where B is the ambient magnetic field. Resonances are also observed between the nf(sub ce) harmonics both above and below f(sub uh). The former, known as the Qn plasma resonances, are mainly attributed to the matching of the wave group velocity of sounder-generated (Bernstein-mode) es waves to the satellite velocity. The frequency spectrum of these waves in the magnetosphere can be used to detect non-Maxwellian electron velocity-distributions. In addition, these resonances also exhibit components that appear to be the result of plasma emissions stimulated by the sounder pulses. The plasma resonances observed between the nf(sub ce) harmonics and below f(sub uh), known as the Dn plasma resonances, are entirely attributed to such sounder-stimulated plasma emissions. There are other sounder-stimulated plasma phenomena that also fall into this category, e.g., ion affects on electron-resonant phenomena, proton-cyclotron echoes and N(sub e) field-aligned irregularities (FAI). Some of these phenomena are more pronounced when f(sub pe)/f(sub ce) approx. = n where n is an integer significantly greater than one. The observations suggest that the sounder-stimulated plasma phenomena are stimulated, or enhanced, on a time scale much less than one second. The purpose of this presentation is to review the above topics with particular emphasis on the sounder-stimulated plasma phenomena.

Benson, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Wireless Sensor Network Handles Image Data

To relay data from remote locations for NASA s Earth sciences research, Goddard Space Flight Center contributed to the development of "microservers" (wireless sensor network nodes), which are now used commercially as a quick and affordable means to capture and distribute geographical information, including rich sets of aerial and street-level imagery. NASA began this work out of a necessity for real-time recovery of remote sensor data. These microservers work much like a wireless office network, relaying information between devices. The key difference, however, is that instead of linking workstations within one office, the interconnected microservers operate miles away from one another. This attribute traces back to the technology s original use: The microservers were originally designed for seismology on remote glaciers and ice streams in Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica-acquiring, storing, and relaying data wirelessly between ground sensors. The microservers boast three key attributes. First, a researcher in the field can establish a "managed network" of microservers and rapidly see the data streams (recovered wirelessly) on a field computer. This rapid feedback permits the researcher to reconfigure the network for different purposes over the course of a field campaign. Second, through careful power management, the microservers can dwell unsupervised in the field for up to 2 years, collecting tremendous amounts of data at a research location. The third attribute is the exciting potential to deploy a microserver network that works in synchrony with robotic explorers (e.g., providing ground truth validation for satellites, supporting rovers as they traverse the local environment). Managed networks of remote microservers that relay data unsupervised for up to 2 years can drastically reduce the costs of field instrumentation and data rec

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2007

Wireless Measurement of Contact and Motion Between Contact Surfaces

This method uses a magnetic-field- response contact sensor that is designed to identify surface contact and motion between contact locations. The sensor has three components: (1) a capacitor-inductor circuit with two sets of electrical contact pads, (2) a capacitor with a set of electrical contact pads, and (3) an inductor with a set of electrical contact pads. A unique feature of this sensor is that it is inherently multifunctional. Information can be derived from analyzing such sensor response attributes as amplitude, frequency, and bandwidth. A change in one attribute can be due to a change in a physical property of a system. A change in another attribute can be due to another physical property, which has no relationship to the first one.

Woodard, Stanley E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Browser-Based Application for Telemetry Monitoring of Robotic Assets

AEGSE Virtuoso Charting is an application that enables animated, real-time charting of telemetry streams of data from a rover. These automatically scaled charts are completely interactive, and allow users to choose the variables that they want to monitor. The charts can process data from streams with many variables. This application allows for the simultaneous viewing of up to four individually configured charts on a small touch-screen laptop. The charting application has been tested and found to be extremely robust during long operations. It was left running overnight, with incoming telemetry at 100 Hz, and it did not experience any signs of lost functionality or memory leaks. This robustness is critical for an application that will be used to support vital tests for the Mars Science Laboratory rover. The charting component also provides an interactive interface that allows the engineers to decide how many charts they want on their screen, and which attributes should be plotted on each chart. The application is optimized to make the charts on display take up as much of the available space as possible to maximize the use of the screen real estate. Engineers are also able to plot multiple attributes on the same chart, which enables them to observe the correlation between various attributes.

Breed, Kelly S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Using Technical Performance Measures

All programs have requirements. For these requirements to be met, there must be a means of measurement. A Technical Performance Measure (TPM) is defined to produce a measured quantity that can be compared to the requirement. In practice, the TPM is often expressed as a maximum or minimum and a goal. Example TPMs for a rocket program are: vacuum or sea level specific impulse (lsp), weight, reliability (often expressed as a failure rate), schedule, operability (turn-around time), design and development cost, production cost, and operating cost. Program status is evaluated by comparing the TPMs against specified values of the requirements. During the program many design decisions are made and most of them affect some or all of the TPMs. Often, the same design decision changes some TPMs favorably while affecting other TPMs unfavorably. The problem then becomes how to compare the effects of a design decision on different TPMs. How much failure rate is one second of specific impulse worth? How many days of schedule is one pound of weight worth? In other words, how to compare dissimilar quantities in order to trade and manage the TPMs to meet all requirements. One method that has been used successfully and has a mathematical basis is Utility Analysis. Utility Analysis enables quantitative comparison among dissimilar attributes. It uses a mathematical model that maps decision maker preferences over the tradeable range of each attribute. It is capable of modeling both independent and dependent attributes. Utility Analysis is well supported in the literature on Decision Theory. It has been used at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for internal programs and for contracted work such as the J-2X rocket engine program. This paper describes the construction of TPMs and describes Utility Analysis. It then discusses the use of TPMs in design trades and to manage margin during a program using Utility Analysis.

Garrett, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Mechanical and Structural Behavior of Granular Material Packed Beds for Space Life Support System Applications

Long-term human mission to space, such as living in International Space Station (ISS), Lunar, and Martian bases, and travel to Mars, must m ake use of Advanced Life Support Systems (ALSS) to generate and recycle critical life supporting elements like oxygen and water. Oxygen Gen eration Assembly (OGA) and Water Processor Assembly (WPA), critical c omponents of ALSS, make use of series of granular material packed beds for generation and recycling of oxygen and water. Several granular m aterials can be used for generation, recycling, processing and recovery of oxygen and water. For example, they may include soft bed media, e.g. ion exchange resins for oxygen generation assembly and hard bed media such as, activated alumina, magchem (Magnesium oxide) and activa ted carbon to remove organic species like ethanol, methanol, and urea from wastewater in Water recovery/processing assembly. These beds are generally packed using a plate-spring mechanism to provide sufficien t compaction to the bed media throughout the course of operation. This paper presents results from an experimental study of a full-scale, 3 8.1 cm (15 inches) long and 3.7 cm (1.44 inches) diameter. activated alumina bed enclosed in a cylinder determining its force-displacement behavior, friction mobilizing force, and axial normal stress distribu tion under various axially applied loads and at different levels of packing. It is observed that force-displacement behavior is non-linear for low compaction level and becomes linear with increase in compaction of the bed media. Axial normal stress distribution along the length of the bed media decreased non-linearly with increase in depth from the loading end of the granular media. This paper also presents experimental results on the amount of particulates generated corresponding to various compaction levels. Particulates generated from each of the tests were measured using standard US sieves. It was found that the p articulates and the overall displacement of the bed media increased with decrease in initial compaction of the bed media. This effect could be attributed to the greater tendency for inter-particle sliding/rub bing due to smaller internal friction angles, as seen from the shear tests, at lesser initial compacted levels. Upon unloading, it was obse rved that there was no change in displacement (especially rebounding) in the bed media. This effect could be attributed to the fact that th e porous activated alumina particles fracture/break upon increase in applied load (during loading phase) and occupy void spaces in between the material grains; thereby leading to settling of the media. The lo ad-displacement curve becomes more linear with increase in initial compaction of the bed media. It is concluded that compaction considerabl y affects the load-displacement behavior of the bed media. A series of tests were also conducted on the packed bed media to determine the f orce required to mobilize the friction between the bed media and the housing cylinder. The results from these tests showed the existence of significant friction between the bed media and the encasing stainles s steel cylinder. Further, it was found that friction effects were more pronounced for media with higher initial compaction. Internal frict ion of the granular media was measured using direct shear apparatus. It was observed that the internal friction increased with increase in initial compaction of the bed media. In this study, a computational m odel (CM) is also developed using finite element software ANSYS to verify experimental results obtained for the distribution of the axial n ormal stress and axial displacement along the length of the full-scal e activated alumina bed media. In the computational model, the granular material is considered to have appropriate failure and frictional c ontact exists between the wall and the granular media. It is observed that the model predicts results closely with the experimental method. The compational results show that the axial normal stress distribution along the length of the activated alumina media decreases non-linea rly from the loading end and is negligible beyond a certain depth. Th is can be attributed to the existence of friction between the walls and the media and that the friction takes up most of the applied load.

Malla, Ramesh B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Determination of Turbine Blade Life from Engine Field Data

It is probable that no two engine companies determine the life of their engines or their components in the same way or apply the same experience and safety factors to their designs. Knowing the failure mode that is most likely to occur minimizes the amount of uncertainty and simplifies failure and life analysis. Available data regarding failure mode for aircraft engine blades, while favoring low-cycle, thermal mechanical fatigue as the controlling mode of failure, are not definitive. Sixteen high-pressure turbine (HPT) T-1 blade sets were removed from commercial aircraft engines that had been commercially flown by a single airline and inspected for damage. Each set contained 82 blades. The damage was cataloged into three categories related to their mode of failure: (1) Thermal-mechanical fatigue, (2) Oxidation/Erosion, and (3) "Other." From these field data, the turbine blade life was determined as well as the lives related to individual blade failure modes using Johnson-Weibull analysis. A simplified formula for calculating turbine blade life and reliability was formulated. The L(sub 10) blade life was calculated to be 2427 cycles (11 077 hr). The resulting blade life attributed to oxidation/erosion equaled that attributed to thermal-mechanical fatigue. The category that contributed most to blade failure was Other. If there were there no blade failures attributed to oxidation/erosion and thermal-mechanical fatigue, the overall blade L(sub 10) life would increase approximately 11 to 17 percent.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Method and system for control of upstream flowfields of vehicle in supersonic or hypersonic atmospheric flight

The upstream flowfield of a vehicle traveling in supersonic or hypersonic atmospheric flight is actively controlled using attribute(s) experienced by the vehicle. Sensed attribute(s) include pressure along the vehicle's outer mold line, temperature along the vehicle's outer mold line, heat flux along the vehicle's outer mold line, and/or local acceleration response of the vehicle. A non-heated, non-plasma-producing gas is injected into an upstream flowfield of the vehicle from at least one surface location along the vehicle's outer mold line. The pressure of the gas so-injected is adjusted based on the attribute(s) so-sensed.

Daso, Endwell O.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Creating Interactive Graphical Overlays in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System Using Shapefiles and DGM Files

Graphical overlays can be created in real-time in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) using shapefiles or Denver AWIPS Risk Reduction and Requirements Evaluation (DARE) Graphics Metafile (DGM) files. This presentation describes how to create graphical overlays on-the-fly for AWIPS, by using two examples of AWIPS applications that were created by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Florida. The first example is the Anvil Threat Corridor Forecast Tool, which produces a shapefile that depicts a graphical threat corridor of the forecast movement of thunderstorm anvil clouds, based on the observed or forecast upper-level winds. This tool is used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center, Texas and 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) at CCAFS to analyze the threat of natural or space vehicle-triggered lightning over a location. The second example is a launch and landing trajectory tool that produces a DGM file that plots the ground track of space vehicles during launch or landing. The trajectory tool can be used by SMG and the 45 WS forecasters to analyze weather radar imagery along a launch or landing trajectory. The presentation will list the advantages and disadvantages of both file types for creating interactive graphical overlays in future AWIPS applications. Shapefiles are a popular format used extensively in Geographical Information Systems. They are usually used in AWIPS to depict static map backgrounds. A shapefile stores the geometry and attribute information of spatial features in a dataset (ESRI 1998). Shapefiles can contain point, line, and polygon features. Each shapefile contains a main file, index file, and a dBASE table. The main file contains a record for each spatial feature, which describes the feature with a list of its vertices. The index file contains the offset of each record from the beginning of the main file. The dBASE table contains records for each attribute. Attributes are commonly used to label spatial features. Shapefiles can be viewed, but not created in AWIPS. As a result, either third-party software can be installed on an AWIPS workstation, or new software must be written to create shapefiles in the correct format.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

NASA NTRS2013

Determination of Turbine Blade Life from Engine Field Data

It is probable that no two engine companies determine the life of their engines or their components in the same way or apply the same experience and safety factors to their designs. Knowing the failure mode that is most likely to occur minimizes the amount of uncertainty and simplifies failure and life analysis. Available data regarding failure mode for aircraft engine blades, while favoring low-cycle, thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) as the controlling mode of failure, are not definitive. Sixteen high-pressure turbine (HPT) T-1 blade sets were removed from commercial aircraft engines that had been commercially flown by a single airline and inspected for damage. Each set contained 82 blades. The damage was cataloged into three categories related to their mode of failure: (1) TMF, (2) Oxidation/erosion (O/E), and (3) Other. From these field data, the turbine blade life was determined as well as the lives related to individual blade failure modes using Johnson-Weibull analysis. A simplified formula for calculating turbine blade life and reliability was formulated. The L10 blade life was calculated to be 2427 cycles (11 077 hr). The resulting blade life attributed to O/E equaled that attributed to TMF. The category that contributed most to blade failure was Other. If there were no blade failures attributed to O/E and TMF, the overall blade L(sub 10) life would increase approximately 11 to 17 percent.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Effects of Cloud Horizontal Inhomogeneity and Drizzle on Remote Sensing of Cloud Droplet Effective Radius: Case Studies Based on Large-eddy Simulations

This study investigates effects of drizzle and cloud horizontal inhomogeneity on cloud effective radius (re) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In order to identify the relative importance of various factors, we developed a MODIS cloud property retrieval simulator based on the combination of large-eddy simulations (LES) and radiative transfer computations. The case studies based on synthetic LES cloud fields indicate that at high spatial resolution (100 m) 3-D radiative transfer effects, such as illumination and shadowing, can induce significant differences between retrievals ofre based on reflectance at 2.1 m (re,2.1) and 3.7 m (re,3.7). It is also found that 3-D effects tend to have stronger impact onre,2.1 than re,3.7, leading to positive difference between the two (re,3.72.1) from illumination and negative re,3.72.1from shadowing. The cancellation of opposing 3-D effects leads to overall reasonable agreement betweenre,2.1 and re,3.7 at high spatial resolution as far as domain averages are concerned. At resolutions similar to MODIS, however, re,2.1 is systematically larger than re,3.7when averaged over the LES domain, with the difference exhibiting a threshold-like dependence on bothre,2.1and an index of the sub-pixel variability in reflectance (H), consistent with MODIS observations. In the LES cases studied, drizzle does not strongly impact reretrievals at either wavelength. It is also found that opposing 3-D radiative transfer effects partly cancel each other when cloud reflectance is aggregated from high spatial resolution to MODIS resolution, resulting in a weaker net impact of 3-D radiative effects onre retrievals. The large difference at MODIS resolution between re,3.7 and re,2.1 for highly inhomogeneous pixels with H 0.4 can be largely attributed to what we refer to as the plane-parallelrebias, which is attributable to the impact of sub-pixel level horizontal variability of cloud optical thickness onre retrievals and is greater for re,2.1 than re,3.7. These results suggest that there are substantial uncertainties attributable to 3-D radiative effects and plane-parallelre bias in the MODIS re,2.1retrievals for pixels with strong sub-pixel scale variability, and theH index can be used to identify these uncertainties.

Zhang, Zhibo↗

NASA NTRS2014

Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems

Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.

Carbon Uptake↗

NASA NTRS2015

Software Defined Radio Architecture Contributions to Next Generation Space Communications

Space communications architecture concepts, comprising the elements of the system, the interactions among them, and the principles that govern their development, are essential factors in developing National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) future exploration and science missions. Accordingly, vital architectural attributes encompass flexibility, the extensibility to insert future capabilities, and to enable evolution to provide interoperability with other current and future systems. Space communications architectures and technologies for this century must satisfy a growing set of requirements, including those for Earth sensing, collaborative observation missions, robotic scientific missions, human missions for exploration of the Moon and Mars where surface activities require supporting communications, and in-space observatories for observing the earth, as well as other star systems and the universe. An advanced, integrated, communications infrastructure will enable the reliable, multipoint, high-data-rate capabilities needed on demand to provide continuous, maximum coverage for areas of concentrated activity. Importantly, the cost/value proposition of the future architecture must be an integral part of its design; an affordable and sustainable architecture is indispensable within anticipated future budget environments. Effective architecture design informs decision makers with insight into the capabilities needed to efficiently satisfy the demanding space-communication requirements of future missions and formulate appropriate requirements. A driving requirement for the architecture is the extensibility to address new requirements and provide low-cost on-ramps for new capabilities insertion, ensuring graceful growth as new functionality and new technologies are infused into the network infrastructure. In addition to extensibility, another key architectural attribute of the space communication equipment's interoperability with other NASA communications systems, as well as those communications and navigation systems operated by international space agencies and civilian and government agencies. In this paper, we review the philosophies, technologies, architectural attributes, mission services, and communications capabilities that form the structure of candidate next-generation integrated communication architectures for space communications and navigation. A key area that this paper explores is from the development and operation of the software defined radio for the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed currently on the International Space Station (ISS). Evaluating the lessons learned from development and operation feed back into the communications architecture. Leveraging the reconfigurability provides a change in the way that operations are done and must be considered. Quantifying the impact on the NASA Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) software defined radio architecture provides feedback to keep the standard useful and up to date. NASA is not the only customer of these radios. Software defined radios are developed for other applications, and taking advantage of these developments promotes an architecture that is cost effective and sustainable. Developments in the following areas such as an updated operating environment, higher data rates, networking and security can be leveraged. The ability to sustain an architecture that uses radios for multiple markets can lower costs and keep new technology infused.

Lessons Learned↗

NASA NTRS2015

Visual Attention Allocation Between Robotic Arm and Environmental Process Control: Validating the STOM Task Switching Model

Fifty six participants time shared a spacecraft environmental control system task with a realistic space robotic arm control task in either a manual or highly automated version. The former could suffer minor failures, whose diagnosis and repair were supported by a decision aid. At the end of the experiment this decision aid unexpectedly failed. We measured visual attention allocation and switching between the two tasks, in each of the eight conditions formed by manual-automated arm X expected-unexpected failure X monitoring- failure management. We also used our multi-attribute task switching model, based on task attributes of priority interest, difficulty and salience that were self-rated by participants, to predict allocation. An un-weighted model based on attributes of difficulty, interest and salience accounted for 96 percent of the task allocation variance across the 8 different conditions. Task difficulty served as an attractor, with more difficult tasks increasing the tendency to stay on task.

STOM attention allocation model validation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate

Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

Feedback upon dust mobilization↗

NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Wehner, M. F.↗