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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Burning Embers: Towards more transparent and robust climate change risk assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the “burning embers” diagram. Burning embers were first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate risks from various systems and sectors. In these diagrams, colour transitions show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of climate change indicated by increasing levels of global mean temperature. Here we review the approach to the construction of burning embers, its evolution across the various IPCC reports, and recent methodological advances in the elicitation process to reduce subjectivity in the expert judgement and improve the transparency of the assessment. We recommend the use of a standardized, transparent process of expert elicitation in the production of burning embers diagrams to enhance their quality, comparability, and credibility.

Zommers, Zinta↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient, Predictive Tomography of Multi-Qubit Quantum Processors

After decades of R&D, quantum computers comprising more than 2 qubits are appearing. If this progress is to continue, the research community requires a capability for precise characterization (“tomography”) of these enlarged devices, which will enable benchmarking, improvement, and finally certification as mission-ready. As world leaders in characterization -- our gate set tomography (GST) method is the current state of the art – the project team is keenly aware that every existing protocol is either (1) catastrophically inefficient for more than 2 qubits, or (2) not rich enough to predict device behavior. GST scales poorly, while the popular randomized benchmarking technique only measures a single aggregated error probability. This project explored a new insight: that the combinatorial explosion plaguing standard GST could be avoided by using an ansatz of few-qubit interactions to build a complete, efficient model for multi-qubit errors. We developed this approach, prototyped it, and tested it on a cutting-edge quantum processor developed by Rigetti Quantum Computing (RQC), a US-based startup. We implemented our new models within Sandia’s PyGSTi open-source code, and tested them experimentally on the RQC device by probing crosstalk. We found two major results: first, our schema worked and is viable for further development; second, while the Rigetti device is indeed a “real” 8-qubit quantum processor, its behavior fluctuated significantly over time while we were experimenting with it and this drift made it difficult to fit our models of crosstalk to the data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

3D reconstruction identifies loci linked to variation in angle of individual sorghum leaves

Selection for yield at high planting density has reshaped the leaf canopy of maize, improving photosynthetic productivity in high density settings. Further optimization of canopy architecture may be possible. However, measuring leaf angles, the widely studied component trait of leaf canopy architecture, by hand is a labor and time intensive process. Here, we use multiple, calibrated, 2D images to reconstruct the 3D geometry of individual sorghum plants using a voxel carving based algorithm. Automatic skeletonization and segmentation of these 3D geometries enable quantification of the angle of each leaf for each plant. The resulting measurements are both heritable and correlated with manually collected leaf angles. This automated and scaleable reconstruction approach was employed to measure leaf-by-leaf angles for a population of 366 sorghum plants at multiple time points, resulting in 971 successful reconstructions and 3,376 leaf angle measurements from individual leaves. A genome wide association study conducted using aggregated leaf angle data identified a known large effect leaf angle gene, several previously identified leaf angle QTL from a sorghum NAM population, and novel signals. Genome wide association studies conducted separately for three individual sorghum leaves identified a number of the same signals, a previously unreported signal shared across multiple leaves, and signals near the sorghum orthologs of two maize genes known to influence leaf angle. Automated measurement of individual leaves and mapping variants associated with leaf angle reduce the barriers to engineering ideal canopy architectures in sorghum and other grain crops.

3D reconstruction↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Cyrene organosolv fractionation of softwood biomass and alkaline post-incubation

Cyrene organosolv fractionation effectively extracted 78% of lignin from recalcitrant softwood biomass pine at a mild temperature of 120°C. However, the enzymatic conversion of the fractionated cellulose-rich solid did not improve significantly. Alkali post-incubation of the fractionated cellulose fraction notably enhanced the glucan conversion. This phenomenon has also been observed in other organosolv processes, but how this approach transforms pretreated biomass has not yet been comprehensively investigated. In this study, small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) was employed to understand the structural changes in biomass during fractionation and post-incubation at the nanometer scale. Further, no lignin aggregation was found on the microfibrils, whereas the distance between the microfibrils increased after pretreatment and decreased after alkaline post-incubation. These results suggests that the Cyrene molecules remained between the microfibrils and were removed by post-incubation. In addition, the pine lignin recovered after pretreatment was characterized by NMR to understand the impact of Cyrene pretreatment on the lignin structure.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An End-To-End Earthquake Detection Method for Joint Phase Picking and Association Using Deep Learning

Earthquake monitoring by seismic networks typically involves a workflow consisting of phase detection/picking, association, and location tasks. In recent years, the accuracy of these individual stages has been improved through the use of machine learning techniques. Here, in this study, we introduce a new end-to-end approach that improves overall earthquake detection accuracy by jointly optimizing each stage of the detection pipeline. We propose a neural network architecture for the task of multi-station processing of seismic waveforms recorded over a seismic network. This end-to-end architecture consists of three sub-networks: a backbone network that extracts features from raw waveforms, a phase picking sub-network that picks P- and S-wave arrivals based on these features, and an event detection sub-network that aggregates the features from multiple stations to associate and detect earthquakes across a seismic network. We use these sub-networks together with a shift-and-stack module based on back-projection that introduces kinematic constraints on arrival times, allowing the neural network model to generalize to different velocity models and to variable station geometry in seismic networks. We evaluate our proposed method on the STanford EArthquake Dataset (STEAD) and on the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake sequence. The results demonstrate that our end-to-end approach can effectively pick P- and S-wave arrivals and achieve earthquake detection accuracy rivaling that of other state-of-the-art approaches. Because our approach preserves information across tasks in the detection pipeline, it has the potential to outperform approaches that do not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Large Language Model for Determining Partial Tripping of Distributed Energy Resources

Knowing the status of individual distributed energy resources, i.e., being tripped or not, after a contingency can inform the development of an aggregated DER model. Here, this letter presents a large language model application to determine the partial tripping of distributed energy resources depending on the types, locations, and duration of faults in the transmission network. The large language model, or more specifically BERT-based approach can streamline the fault information into tokenized input, which not only reduces the complexity of the machine learning model but also demonstrates a robust performance with only limited data sets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flexible Service Contracting for Risk Management within Integrated Transmission and Distribution Systems

The general objective of our project has been to investigate the ability of Independent Distribution System Operators (IDSOs), functioning as linkage agents for Integrated Transmission and Distribution (ITD) systems, to facilitate the flexible availability and usage of reserve in support of ITD system operations. This general objective is in accordance with Order 2222 of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), titled “Participation of Distributed Energy Resource Aggregations in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators”. The Final Rule for FERC Order 2222 was issued on September 17, 2020. The primary contribution of our project is that we have formulated an innovative energy management Transactive Energy Design (TES) approach for ITD systems that provides promising support for our project objective. Specifically, we have developed a new type of IDSO-managed TES design for distribution system operations, as well as new types of swing contracts permitting IDSOs to participate in transmission system operations as providers of reserve harnessed from distribution system resources in return for appropriate compensation. Together, these design elements constitute a scalable market-based approach facilitating efficient reserve procurement for ITD system operations from a fuller range of power resources. The efficacy of our approach has been demonstrated by means of detailed conceptual analyses as well as test case simulations. To implement the latter, we have developed the ITD TES Platform V2.0, a computational platform that permits the modeling and software implementation of ITD system operations over time. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy region has been used as the empirical anchor for the development of this platform. Our conceptual and test-case work has been reported in a Wiley/IEEE Press book, two refereed book chapters, and seven refereed journal articles. The key components comprising the ITD TES Platform V2.0 have been released as documented open-source software at online GitHub repositories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mesoscale-architecture-based crack evolution dictating cycling stability of advanced lithium ion batteries

The cracking phenomenon of Ni-rich NMC (LiNixMnyCo1-x-yO2, x = 0.6) secondary particles is frequently discovered and believed to be one of critical reasons deteriorating the long-term cycling stability of NMC cathode in lithium ion batteries (LIBs). However, the initiation and evolution of those cracks is still controversial due to the limited quantification especially by in situ monitoring, leading to the challenge of identifying an efficient approach to inhibit the formation of the fractures during repeated cycling. Herein, the irreversible, anisotropic cycling lattice and mesoscale expansion/shrinkage of nano-grain during the first cycle, as revealed by in situ X-ray diffraction (XRD) and in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM), have been quantified and confirmed to be the dominant driving forces of microcracks initiation at the grain boundaries. These microcracks preferentially nucleates at the core region with random oriented nano-grains in early stage. The further growth and aggregation of microcracks into macrocrack eventually results in microfracture propagation radially outward to the periphery region with more uniform nano-grain orientation. This mesoscale nano-grain architecture controlled cracking process highlight the importance of predictive synthesis of cathode materials with controllable multiscale crystalline architecture for high-performance LIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transfer learning for probabilistic localization of hidden cracks in concrete structures

Abstract The utility of discriminative supervised learning models built using multiple training-data sources is investigated for hidden crack localization in concrete. Feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is chosen as the model architecture, and transfer learning is used to assimilate the information obtained from different sources (computational physics simulations and laboratory experiments). The labeled training data consists of values of a damage index and the known locations of hidden cracks. The classification models need to learn how the presence of damage (hidden cracks) affects the damage index at different sensors for different test conditions. To this end, diagnostic FFNN models are built by sequentially adding and training new hidden layers to assimilate labeled information from computer models (different model geometries, test conditions, crack lengths, crack locations) and laboratory experiments on a plain cement slab. These transfer learning-based models are then used to localize damage in concrete specimens that reflect real-world conditions (i.e., specimens with steel reinforcement and randomly distributed aggregate). The actual damage state in these specimens is determined by extracting cores and performing petrographic studies on the extracted cores. The damage probability estimated by transfer learning-based models is compared with the petrographic damage rating index (DRI) to identify the most suitable approach to train the diagnostic models. The transfer learning-based diagnostic methodology shows promise and could be used in various structural health monitoring applications, where sufficient labeled data are typically not available from a single data source.

Miele, S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Demand Response Incorporating Distribution LMP with PV Generation Uncertainty

The utilization of aggregated demand-side flexibility via demand response (DR) has become a promising pathway for the integration of renewable energy resources in power systems. Nowadays, there are several management strategies for DR such as the price-based transactive control strategies. However, many of such existing price-based control strategies neglect the physics and operational constraints of the underlying distribution networks when computing the price, raising concerns regarding their theoretical and practical values. This paper studies this issue and investigates optimal DR (ODR) by incorporating the distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). In particular, we discuss DR in connection with DLMPs and propose a multiperiod bilevel optimization problem to find the ODR strategy. Here, the objective is to minimize the peak load, load fluctuation, and payments of load aggregators. In addition, a robust bilevel ODR model is formulated to provide a robust ODR strategy while minimizing operating costs under the worst-case realization of uncertainties; this mitigates the impact of forecasting errors on renewable energy resources. Then, we propose an efficient solution approach by employing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions and strong duality. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the mutual impacts of the interaction between DR and DLMP and the benefits of the robust ODR strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-Dimensional Imaging Lidar for Characterizing Particle Fields and Organisms in the Mesopelagic Zone

The ocean’s mesopelagic zone is largely uncharacterized despite its vital role in sustaining ocean ecosystems. The composition, cycling, and fate of particle fields in the mesopelagic lacks an integrative multi-scale understanding of organism migration patterns, distribution, and diversity. This problem is addressed by combining complementary technologies with overlapping size spectra, including profiler mounted optical scattering sensors, profiler, and ship mounted acoustic devices, and a custom Unobtrusive Multi-Static Lidar Imager (UMSLI). This unique sensor suite can observe distributions of particles including organisms over a six order of magnitude dynamic size range, from microns to meters. Overlapping size ranges between different methods allows for cross-validation. This work focuses on the lidar imaging measurements and optical backscattering and attenuation, covering a combined particle size range of 0.1 mm to several cm. Particles at the small end of this range are sized using an existing backscattering time series inversion method after Briggs et al. (2013). Larger particles are resolved with UMSLI over an expanding volume using three-dimensional photo-realistic laser serial imaging. UMSLI’s image rectifying ability over time allows for derivation of particle concentration, size, and spatial distribution. Technical details on the development and post-processing methods for the novel UMSLI system are provided. Image resolved particle size distributions (PSDs) revealed a size shift from smaller to larger particles (>0.5 mm) as indicated by flatter slopes from dawn (slope = 2.6) to dusk (slope = 3.0). PSD trends are supported by an optical backscatter and transmissometer time series inversion analysis. Size shifts in the particle field are largely attributed to aggregation effects. Images support evidence of temporal variation between dusk and dawn stations through statistical analysis of particle concentrations for particle sizes 0.50–5.41 mm. Spatial analysis of the particle field revealed a dominantly uniform distributed marine snow background. The importance and potential of integrated approaches to studying particle and organism dynamics in ocean environments are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement-informed Dynamic Aggregation of Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a measurement-informed dynamic aggregation methodology in order to create equivalent representations of distribution systems that are compatible with large-scale transmission analysis. By optimizing an equivalent feeder parameters using time-series measurements of active power, reactive power, and voltage at the Point of Interconnection (POI), the approach yields simplified yet dynamically accurate equivalents. Implemented in PSCAD with models of photovoltaic–battery systems, three-phase motors, and static loads, the method employs hybrid differential evolution and bounded least-squares optimization laying the foundation for for real-time state estimation and optimized sensor placement in distribution networks.

Ahmed, Kazi Ishrak [University of Tennessee, Knoxv↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning approaches for influenza A virus risk assessment identifies predictive correlates using ferret model in vivo data

In vivo assessments of influenza A virus (IAV) pathogenicity and transmissibility in ferrets represent a crucial component of many pandemic risk assessment rubrics, but few systematic efforts to identify which data from in vivo experimentation are most useful for predicting pathogenesis and transmission outcomes have been conducted. To this aim, we aggregated viral and molecular data from 125 contemporary IAV (H1, H2, H3, H5, H7, and H9 subtypes) evaluated in ferrets under a consistent protocol. Three overarching predictive classification outcomes (lethality, morbidity, transmissibility) were constructed using machine learning (ML) techniques, employing datasets emphasizing virological and clinical parameters from inoculated ferrets, limited to viral sequence-based information, or combining both data types. Among 11 different ML algorithms tested and assessed, gradient boosting machines and random forest algorithms yielded the highest performance, with models for lethality and transmission consistently better performing than models predicting morbidity. Comparisons of feature selection among models was performed, and highest performing models were validated with results from external risk assessment studies. Our findings show that ML algorithms can be used to summarize complex in vivo experimental work into succinct summaries that inform and enhance risk assessment criteria for pandemic preparedness that take in vivo data into account.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biochar–polymer composites for 3D printing: a review

Biochar, a bio-based co-product of biofuel production via thermochemical conversion, holds potential as a filler for polymer composites to reduce costs, improve thermomechanical properties, and aid in environmental remediation. 3D-printed biochar composites have received growing interest over the past few years but have experienced difficulties such as poor layer adhesion and nozzle clogging. Currently, no literature review examines 3D-printed biochar composites and related biochar properties in-depth. This work summarizes and discusses recent studies on 3D-printed polymer and biochar composites and examines their mechanical, thermal, and additional properties that result from each study. Technical challenges in printability, such as nozzle clogging from particle size and biochar aggregation, are also discussed. Furthermore, this work discusses the variability of biochar properties resulting from the pyrolysis conditions and feedstock choice in relation to potential 3D printing outcomes. In particular, several studies reported that high lignin feedstocks could be candidates for 3D printing. The post-processing approaches of the biochar via physical and chemical methods are also introduced. Ball milling appears to hold the most promise for physical treatments due to its tunability of particle size, surface area, and functional groups, while chemical treatments with acids or alkalis are used to tailor biochar porosity and wettability. Overall, it was determined that future research needs to be done relating biochar production and post-processing methods to resulting 3D printing parameters as the number of studies is limited.

Day, Rachel [Auburn University, Auburn, AL]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building the I (Interoperability) of FAIR for performance reproducibility of large-scale composable workflows in RECUP

Abstract-Scientific computing communities increasingly run their experiments using complex data- and compute-intensive workflows that utilize distributed and heterogeneous architectures targeting numerical simulations and machine learning, often executed on the Department of Energy Leadership Computing Facilities (LCFs). We argue that a principled, systematic approach to implementing FAIR principles at scale, including fine-grained metadata extraction and organization, can help with the numerous challenges to performance reproducibility posed by such workflows. We extract workflow patterns, propose a set of tools to manage the entire life cycle of performance metadata, and aggregate them in an HPC-ready framework for reproducibility (RECUP). We describe the challenges in making these tools interoperable, preliminary work, and lessons learned from this experiment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Putting Our Industry's Data to Work: A Case Study of Large-Scale Data Aggregation: Preprint

With increasing deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), Building Automation System (BAS) controls, Internet of Things (IoT) network devices, and data-driven evaluation, measurement, and verification studies, the building sector is currently generating a staggering amount of energy-related data. In the right hands, these data sets can contribute to increased comfort and energy savings for building occupants and a more reliable electrical grid; however, due to a combination of factors, including significant privacy concerns, much of the data that are presently generated and stored are not used outside of basic operational applications. In the past year, our team has dedicated over 2,000 person-hours to accessing building energy data for a project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office. We sought whole-building or end-use (e.g., lighting) timeseries data at the individual-building or equipment level where possible or aggregated information, such as timeseries averages and quartiles by building type (e.g., office, retail, hospital), where sharing individual building information was not an option. We are additionally working with IoT and BAS data sets to derive information important to the project. We have assembled an extensive data set that will enable the development of publicly available end-use load profiles to benefit the U.S. building and electricity industries. Here we present an overview of the data set that we have assembled to date, the motivators and approaches that got us here, and the lessons we learned through our efforts. We also discuss work underway that presents additional options for future data access.

building energy data↗