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At least 325 records · Page 18

Fracture Analysis of Cohesive Zone Models for Modeling Residual Stress Induced Delamination in Composite Structures

A fracture study of coupon-scale composite cylinders with embedded defects was conducted with an objective to assess and validate a modeling approach using two available cohesive material models. The study included experimental and simulation evaluations of initiation of crack growth and progression. Interrupted thermal experiments used acoustic emissions monitoring to identify the onset of crack progression during each cooling interval and ultrasonic scanning provided images of defect growth. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) processes were performed in the assessment of the simulation predicted temperature at which crack propagation begins (quantity of interest). The Sobol sensitivity analysis identified the hoop direction elastic modulus in the carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plies as the most influential parameter for simulations using both cohesive models, accounting for at least 70% of the variation in the temperature at crack propagation. The UQ temperature range for the Tvergaard-Hutchinson model was higher (more conservative) than the experimental acoustic measurement indicators of crack progression, while the temperature range for the Thouless-Parmigiani model enveloped the experimental data points for the primary defect size of 0.75 x 1 in. The simulations could not capture the stable crack growth indicated in the experiments. This is likely due to the models’ inability to represent anisotropic fracture toughness attributed to the structure of the orthotropic fiber weave in a woven composite laminate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A New Method for Accurate Treatment of Flow Equations in Cylindrical Coordinates Using Series Expansions

The motivation of this work is the ongoing effort at the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR) to use large eddy simulation (LES) techniques to calculate the noise radiated by jet engines. The focus on engine exhaust noise reduction is motivated by the fact that a significant reduction has been achieved over the last decade on the other main sources of acoustic emissions of jet engines, such as the fan and turbomachinery noise, which gives increased priority to jet noise. To be able to propose methods to reduce the jet noise based on results of numerical simulations, one first has to be able to accurately predict the spatio-temporal distribution of the noise sources in the jet. Though a great deal of understanding of the fundamental turbulence mechanisms in high-speed jets was obtained from direct numerical simulations (DNS) at low Reynolds numbers, LES seems to be the only realistic available tool to obtain the necessary near-field information that is required to estimate the acoustic radiation of the turbulent compressible engine exhaust jets. The quality of jet-noise predictions is determined by the accuracy of the numerical method that has to capture the wide range of pressure fluctuations associated with the turbulence in the jet and with the resulting radiated noise, and by the boundary condition treatment and the quality of the mesh. Higher Reynolds numbers and coarser grids put in turn a higher burden on the robustness and accuracy of the numerical method used in this kind of jet LES simulations. As these calculations are often done in cylindrical coordinates, one of the most important requirements for the numerical method is to provide a flow solution that is not contaminated by numerical artifacts. The coordinate singularity is known to be a source of such artifacts. In the present work we use 6th order Pade schemes in the non-periodic directions to discretize the full compressible flow equations. It turns out that the quality of jet-noise predictions using these schemes is especially sensitive to the type of equation treatment at the singularity axis. The objective of this work is to develop a generally applicable numerical method for treating the singularities present at the polar axis, which is particularly suitable for highly accurate finite-differences schemes (e.g., Pade schemes) on non-staggered grids. The main idea is to reinterpret the regularity conditions developed in the context of pseudo-spectral methods. A set of exact equations at the singularity axis is derived using the appropriate series expansions for the variables in the original set of equations. The present treatment of the equations preserves the same level of accuracy as for the interior scheme. We also want to point out the wider utility of the method, proposed here in the context of compressible flow equations, as its extension for incompressible flows or for any other set of equations that are solved on a non-staggered mesh in cylindrical coordinates with finite-differences schemes of various level of accuracy is straightforward. The robustness and accuracy of the proposed technique is assessed by comparing results from simulations of laminar forced-jets and turbulent compressible jets using LES with similar calculations in which the equations are solved in Cartesian coordinates at the polar axis, or in which the singularity is removed by employing a staggered mesh in the radial direction without a mesh point at r = 0.

Constantinescu, G.S.↗

Effects of thermal and mechanical fatigue on the flexural strength of G40-600/PMR-15 cross-ply laminates

The effects of thermal and mechanical fatigue on the flexural strength of G40-600/PMR-15 cross-ply laminates with ply orientation of (0(2),90(2))2S and (90(2),0(2))2S are examined. The relative importance of shear and tensile stresses is examined by varying the span-to-depth ratios of flexural test specimens from 8 to 45. Acoustic emission signals are measured during the flexural tests in order to monitor the initiation and growth of damage. Optical microscopy is used to examine specimens for resin cracking, delamination, and fiber breaks after testing. Transverse matrix cracks and delaminations occur in all specimens, regardless of ply orientation, span-to-depth ratio, or previous exposure of specimens to thermal and mechanical fatigue. A small amount of fiber tensile fracture occurs in the outer 0 deg ply of specimens with high span-to-depth ratios. Because of the complex failure modes, the flexural test results represent the 'apparent' strengths rather than the true flexural or shear strengths for these cross-ply laminates. Thermal cycling of specimens prior to flexural testing does not reduce the apparent flexural strength or change the mode of failure. However, fewer acoustic events are recorded at all strains during flexural testing of specimens exposed to prior thermal cycling. High temperature thermal cycling (32 to 260 C, 100 cycles) causes a greater reduction in acoustic events than low temperature thermal cycling (-85 to +85 C, 500 cycles). Mechanical cycling (0 to 50 percent of the flexural strength, 100 cycles) has a similar effect, except that acoustic events are reduced only at strains less than the maximum strain applied during flexural fatigue.

Roberts, Gary D.↗

Summary of Activities for Health Monitoring of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

This three-year project (FY12-14) will design and demonstrate the ability of new Magnetic Stress Gages for the measurement of stresses on the inner diameter of a Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel overwrap. The sensors are being tested at White Sands Testing Facility (WSTF) where the results will be correlated with a known nondestructive technique acoustic emission. The gages will be produced utilizing Meandering Winding Magnetometer (MWM) and/or MWM array eddy current technology. The ultimate goal is to utilize this technology for the health monitoring of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels for all future flight programs. The first full-scale pressurization test was performed at WSTF in June 2012. The goals of this test were to determine adaptations of the magnetic stress gauge instrumentation that would be necessary to allow multiple sensors to monitor the vessel's condition simultaneously and to determine how the sensor response changes with sensor selection and orientation. The second full scale pressurization test was performed at WSTF in August 2012. The goals of this test were to monitor the vessel's condition with multiple sensors simultaneously, to determine the viability of the multiplexing units (MUX) for the application, and to determine if the sensor responses in different orientations are repeatable. For both sets of tests the vessel was pressured up to 6,000 psi to simulate maximum operating pressure. Acoustic events were observed during the first pressurization cycle. This suggested that the extended storage period prior to use of this bottle led to a relaxation of the residual stresses imparted during auto-frettage. The pressurization tests successfully demonstrated the use of multiplexers with multiple MWM arrays to monitor a vessel. It was discovered that depending upon the sensor orientation, the frequencies, and the sense element, the MWM arrays can provide a variety of complementary information about the composite overwrapped pressure vessel load conditions. For example, low frequency measurements can be used to monitor the overwrap thickness and changes associated with pressure level. High frequency data is dominated by the properties of the overwrap, including the fiber orientations and lay-up of the layers.

Russell, Rick↗

Flow Field and Acoustic Predictions for Three-Stream Jets

Computational fluid dynamics was used to analyze a three-stream nozzle parametric design space. The study varied bypass-to-core area ratio, tertiary-to-core area ratio and jet operating conditions. The flowfield solutions from the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) code Overflow 2.2e were used to pre-screen experimental models for a future test in the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL) at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). Flowfield solutions were considered in conjunction with the jet-noise-prediction code JeNo to screen the design concepts. A two-stream versus three-stream computation based on equal mass flow rates showed a reduction in peak turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) for the three-stream jet relative to that for the two-stream jet which resulted in reduced acoustic emission. Additional three-stream solutions were analyzed for salient flowfield features expected to impact farfield noise. As tertiary power settings were increased there was a corresponding near nozzle increase in shear rate that resulted in an increase in high frequency noise and a reduction in peak TKE. As tertiary-to-core area ratio was increased the tertiary potential core elongated and the peak TKE was reduced. The most noticeable change occurred as secondary-to-core area ratio was increased thickening the secondary potential core, elongating the primary potential core and reducing peak TKE. As forward flight Mach number was increased the jet plume region decreased and reduced peak TKE.

RANS CFD↗

Medical/Scientific Illustration And Production Of Otological Health Awareness Materials

Over the past year, I have worked for my mentor, Beth Cooper, on a large variety of projects. Beth is the Manager of the Acoustical Testing Laboratory, which tests the acoustical emissions of payloads destined for the International Space Station. She is also responsible for educating, and developing new methods of educating, people of all occupational and educational backgrounds in hearing conservation. Beth spends much of her time developing new materials and strategies with which to train people and teach other people to train people in hearing conservation and noise emissions control. I have been helping Beth develop and market these materials by way of graphic design and scientific illustration. Last summer, I spent much of my time creating educational illustrations that visually explained particular concepts in Beth's presentations. Sometimes these illustrations were small "comics" while, at other times, they were an instructional series of illustrations. Since then, Beth and her lab have been developing and updating some materials which will be distributed free to hearing conservation and noise control professionals and others in related fields. I have helped with these projects by designing their packaging. In each instance, it was my responsibility to develop an aesthetically appealing package that would also, through its imagery, describe or summarize the contents of the product. I did this for 3 CD's (Auditory Demonstrations 11, MACSUG, and JeopEARdy) and saw them through their actual production and distribution. In addition to working with Beth, I work with the Imaging Technology Center on various imaging projects. Some of my activities include photo retouching and manipulation for videos and print. This summer, I also had the opportunity to develop a screen saver that would show of some of the photography contained on the soon-to-be-released "Highlights of the GRC Image Archives, vol. 2". I was also able to utilize my medical training to help several of ITC s videographers identify the best histological examples of cancerous cells for incorporation in one of their videos. Over the last part of this summer and then throughout the school year, I will be working with Beth to develop a "pre-packaged" lecture series about the physics of acoustics in the context of hearing conservation. These lectures will be used to teach people of all backgrounds the fundamental concepts involved in acoustical physics so they might be better aware of their own and others auditory health in and out of the work place, and, in the case of payload developers, to design and build more quiet science experiments for the ISS. Even though it may not seem as such, this project is precisely what I am learning to do as a student of the Cleveland Institute of Art's Medical Illustration Department. From my perspective, this project is about taking technical information and translating it into terms that anyone, regardless of background, can understand.

Hawes, Nicholas E.↗

Aerosol jet printing of piezoelectric surface acoustic wave thermometer

Abstract Surface acoustic wave (SAW) devices are a subclass of micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) that generate an acoustic emission when electrically stimulated. These transducers also work as detectors, converting surface strain into readable electrical signals. Physical properties of the generated SAW are material dependent and influenced by external factors like temperature. By monitoring temperature-dependent scattering parameters a SAW device can function as a thermometer to elucidate substrate temperature. Traditional fabrication of SAW sensors requires labor- and cost- intensive subtractive processes that produce large volumes of hazardous waste. This study utilizes an innovative aerosol jet printer to directly write consistent, high-resolution, silver comb electrodes onto a Y-cut LiNbO 3 substrate. The printed, two-port, 20 MHz SAW sensor exhibited excellent linearity and repeatability while being verified as a thermometer from 25 to 200 ∘ C. Sensitivities of the printed SAW thermometer are $$-96.9\times 1{0{}^{-6}}^{\circ }$$ − 96.9 × 1 0 − 6 ∘ C −1 and $$-92.0\times 1{0{}^{-6}}^{\circ }$$ − 92.0 × 1 0 − 6 ∘ C −1 when operating in pulse-echo mode and pulse-receiver mode, respectively. These results highlight a repeatable path to the additive fabrication of compact high-frequency SAW thermometers.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

GeoSoilEnviroCARS (Sector 13) at the Advanced Photon Source: a comprehensive synchrotron radiation facility for Earth science research at ambient and extreme conditions

GeoSoilEnviroCARS (GSECARS) is a comprehensive analytical laboratory for Earth and environmental science research using X-ray beams from the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory. State-of-the-art instruments are available for (1) high-pressure/high- or low-temperature diffraction, total scattering, and spectroscopy (Brillouin, Raman, and VIS-IR) using the laser heated diamond anvil cell (DAC); (2) high-pressure/high-temperature diffraction, scattering, and imaging as well as acoustic emission (AE) and ultrasonics using the large-volume press (LVP); (3) powder, single crystal, and surface/interface diffraction; (4) X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy; (5) X-ray fluorescence microprobe analysis; and (6) microtomography. As shown here, experiments are facilitated by senior level staff who collaborate on all aspects of the analytical work including experiment design, sample preparation, data collection, data interpretation, and publication preparation. Both technical and scientific synergies occur as a result of the intimate association of the various techniques and scientists experienced in the applications of synchrotron radiation to Earth, environmental, and planetary science problems. The facility includes state-of-the-art instrumentation designed and built in-house, including custom X-ray optics, online and offline laser-based systems, specialized sample environments and positioning systems, as well as pixel-array and multi-crystal energy dispersive X-ray detectors, which are available to be shared among the experimental stations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Micromechanics of Fracture Propagation During Multistage Stress Relaxation and Creep in Brittle Rocks

Time-dependent rock deformation caused by the initiation and growth of fractures leads to the weakening of the rock mass. Understanding the fracturing mechanisms involved in the time-dependent behavior in brittle rocks is very important and to achieve this goal, a systematic series of three types of experiments was performed on double-flawed prismatic Barre granite specimens under unconfined compression. The first series aimed to identify the failure mechanism in the short-term failure mode under monotonic loading, the, second series involved multistage relaxation (constant strain) experiments to analyze the damage at different strain levels, and the third series explored the fracture propagation under multistage creep (constant load) experiments. The spatial and temporal evolution of cracking mechanisms were evaluated using the acoustic emission (AE) and two-dimensional digital image correlation (2D-DIC) techniques to observe the whole crack growth process as well as the accumulated inelastic strain at the specified region of interest. Results suggest that in the case of multistage creep experiments, the time to failure was less compared to the multistage relaxation, when loaded above the crack damage threshold (CD) estimated from the monotonic testing. Furthermore, the frequency magnitude distribution of the AE events generated in the three loading conditions followed the Gutenberg Richter model. A relatively lower b-value was obtained for the creep experiments, indicative of high energy AE events and faster crack growth. In addition, the AE and DIC results also revealed high evolution of tensile cracks at-different stages of creep and relaxation compared to shear and mixed-mode cracks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Energy Budget of Brittle Fracturing in Granite Under Stress Relaxation and Creep

Creep and relaxation are the two major time-dependent fracturing processes in rocks. While a considerable amount of research has been done in understanding these two mechanisms, critical gaps remain regarding how different energy components evolve during time-dependent fracturing processes in rocks. In this study, a series of relaxation and creep experiments were conducted on prismatic Barre granite specimens in the laboratory to estimate the energy budget of brittle fracturing in granite. For the input energy, the work done by the machine (W) is calculated and for the output energy the radiated seismic energy (E R ), released in the form of acoustic emissions (AEs), is calculated as the only measurable output energy component in the conducted experiments. The low-frequency plateau (Ω 0 ) and corner frequency (f 0 ) for each AE waveform was estimated by fitting the observed AE spectra with the theoretical spectra using the Omega model. These parameters were used to estimate the seismic moments (M 0 ) based on the radiation pattern for the double couple (shear) and non-double-couple (non-shear) events. The range of f 0 and M 0 varied from 150 to 750 kHz and 10 –4 to 10 –1 N m, respectively. Moment magnitude (M w ) varied in a wider range from –9 to –6 in creep and –8.5 to –7 in relaxation. Stress drops (Δ σ ) and source radius (r) were estimated for the AEs using Brune’s model. Here, the results report on three primary observations: (1) the effects of different source mechanisms on the estimated source parameters showed that M 0 and Δ σ were higher for DC events as compared to NDC in both relaxation and creep. (2) The radiation efficiency in the case of creep is 70% higher as compared to relaxation and, (3) the stress drop estimated in relaxation and creep demonstrated a breakdown in scaling with the seismic moment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Modeling of Brine Migration in a Heated Borehole Test in Bedded Salt

Abstract This research paper focuses on the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) modeling of brine migration in a heated borehole test conducted as part of the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico. It is a component of the international collaboration project DECOVALEX-2023 (DEvelopment of COupled models and their VALidation against EXperiments), which aims to understand the THM processes governing brine flow in heated rock salt repositories through collaborative analysis by multiple research teams. Using the TOUGH–FLAC simulator, THM simulations were performed and compared with data from the BATS phase 1a. This experiment involved two identical horizontal-borehole arrays, one heated and one serving as a control, both equipped with sensor arrays. Analysis of measurements revealed water flow rate surges during heater power transitions, with the highest jump observed during cooling. Acoustic emission activity exhibited distinct patterns in response to heater power changes, suggesting that damage to rock salt is particularly pronounced during the cooling phase. The THM simulations successfully captured these phenomena, highlighting the significance of thermal effects, brine migration, and mechanical behavior in predicting brine availability in heated and damaged rock salt. Our modeling also revealed the critical interplay between heating and cooling-induced damage and its influence on flow properties, particularly affecting brine inflow estimation. Notably, we found that cooling-induced brine inflow spikes result from increased permeability due to tensile dilatancy. These findings have important implications for the development of robust containment strategies and enhance our understanding of the complex processes involved in repository performance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stress Dependency of Brittle Creep in Granite: Insights into Source Mechanisms and Parameters

Creep in rocks refers to the gradual deformation of rock material over time under the influence of constant stress. Characterizing these deformations is of great importance for engineering design, geotechnical assessment, mining operations, geological studies, and understanding natural hazards. While laboratory experiments and a variety of numerical approaches have offered explanations for microcrack interaction and damage accumulation under the three stages of creep (primary, secondary and tertiary) in conventional creep experiments, the micromechanisms of the fractures produced in brittle creep and its dependency on the applied stress have not been explored in detail. The present study focused on investigating the fracturing mechanisms that occur during creep-induced fracturing at different stress levels and estimation of the source parameters and energy budget components. A series of uniaxial compression creep experiments have been conducted at different stress level ratios (70%, 75%, 80% and 85%), to the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of double-flawed Barre granite specimen. Creep measurements were complemented with the Acoustic Emission (AE) measurements. The creep-induced fractures were classified into double-couple (DC), compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) and isotropic (ISO) components using the AE moment tensor decomposition technique. The results show that non-double-couple sources dominated during creep at all the specified stress levels; however, their proportions decreased as the stress level was increased. The source parameters estimation indicated a significant increase in the magnitude of the events and the radiated seismic energy with increasing levels of stress and a slight increase in the evaluated source radius and stress drop with increasing stress levels. Furthermore, this study contributes to the existing knowledge of creep-induced fracturing by providing insights into the fracturing mechanisms and the radiated seismic energy produced, which can be helpful for the development of improved models and strategies for rock engineering and geoscience applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Visualization of hydraulic fracture using physics-informed clustering to process ultrasonic shear waves

Ultrasonic transmission is sensitive to the spatial variation in mechanical properties of materials due to the presence of cracks/fractures. Wave propagation through fractured media introduces changes in the frequency content, travel time and transmission coefficient of the wave. A workflow based on physics-informed unsupervised learning is developed to process the transmitted ultrasonic-shear waveforms to non-invasively visualize the geomechanical alterations due to hydraulic fracturing. Novelty of the work involves the assignment of both statistically consistent and physically consistent clusters to the measurements of shear waveforms acquired across the one axial and two frontal planes. Physically consistent/relevant information is incorporated by considering the travel time of the peak of spectral energy and transmission coefficient of the transmitted waveform. The proposed workflow generates maps of geomechanical alterations across the frontal and axial planes of the sample. The outputs of the workflow are in good agreement with independent techniques viz. acoustic emission and X-ray computed tomography. Finally, the proposed workflow can be adapted for improved fracture characterization in the subsurface when processing sonic-logging, cross-wellbore seismic or surface seismic waveform data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Relationships between fault characteristics and seismic responses in a large lab-scale tri-axial injection test conducted on a faulted Castlegate Sandstone

Here to investigate mechanisms causing microseismicity (M w < 2) at a CO 2 injection site, a large-scale triaxial block experiment was carried out on a faulted (saw-cut) cubic-meter of Castlegate Sandstone. The experiment consisted of injection tests at varying differential stresses, while monitoring and recording pore pressure and acoustic emissions (AEs). During the experiment, ~33,000 AEs and ~14 mm of horizontal displacement/slip, like a strike-slip fault movement, occurred. To understand the AE responses and ascertain fault characteristics near the located AEs, we modeled the topography of the fault surface, fault aperture, and fault-gouge thickness using pre- and post-experiment laser scans of the fault surface on each half of the block. Additionally, we characterized surface roughness parallel and perpendicular to slip. Models show crushing and flattening of the fault surfaces can be linked to the spatiotemporal distribution of AEs within 50 mm of the fault surface. Approximately 65% of AEs were in areas with small aperture (≤300 μm); thicker fault gouge was observed in adjacent areas with wider aperture and shows a two-fold reduction in grain size relative to unaltered Castlegate Sandstone. This work provides a conceptual understanding on fault surface evolution, which can be applied towards modeling of seismic slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A state-of-the-art review of experimental and computational studies of granular materials: Properties, advances, challenges, and future directions

Modeling of heterogeneous materials and media is a problem of fundamental importance to a wide class of phenomena and systems, ranging from condensed matter physics, soft materials, and composite media to porous media, biological systems, geosystems, ceramic engineering, pharmaceutical science and even in space discoveries. Among the most important materials are granular systems, which have received intense interest from the engineering, physics, and mathematics communities. In this review paper, the recent developments and new advances in experimental, and computational methods on a variety of scales and physics that extend understanding to a wide range of materials and phenomena are reviewed. Experimental advances include computed neutron and nanometer-scale tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, refractive index matching, digital image correlation, acoustic emission analysis, and the most recent 4D techniques. Furthermore, a tremendous shift has occurred from the continuum scale to micro-scale and developing multiscale approaches. As such, various computational methods, including, constitutive modeling, discrete modeling, and multiscale approaches, have been developed. In conclusion, aside from all these evolutions, more complicated modeling called coupled, or multiphysics, systems representing a simultaneous presence of heat, fluid, chemical variation, and mechanical effect are also explored.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stability of expanding accretion shocks for an arbitrary equation of state

We present a theoretical stability analysis for an expanding accretion shock that does not involve a rarefaction wave behind it. The dispersion equation that determines the eigenvalues of the problem and the explicit formulae for the corresponding eigenfunction profiles are presented for an arbitrary equation of state and finite-strength shocks. For spherically and cylindrically expanding steady shock waves, we demonstrate the possibility of instability in a literal sense, a power-law growth of shock-front perturbations with time, in the range of $h_c< h<1+2 {\mathcal {M}}_2$ , where $h$ is the D'yakov-Kontorovich parameter, $h_c$ is its critical value corresponding to the onset of the instability and ${\mathcal {M}}_2$ is the downstream Mach number. Shock divergence is a stabilizing factor and, therefore, instability is found for high angular mode numbers. As the parameter $h$ increases from $h_c$ to $1+2 {\mathcal {M}}_2$ , the instability power index grows from zero to infinity. This result contrasts with the classic theory applicable to planar isolated shocks, which predicts spontaneous acoustic emission associated with constant-amplitude oscillations of the perturbed shock in the range $h_c< h<1+2 {\mathcal {M}}_2$ . Examples are given for three different equations of state: ideal gas, van der Waals gas and three-terms constitutive equation for simple metals.

Huete, César (ORCID:0000000232278520)↗

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes

Abstract Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab‐based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time‐to‐failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active‐source seismic data, which probe asperity‐scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P‐wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to “learn” about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics‐informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Strengthening of Calcite Assemblages Through Chemical Complexation Reactions

Abstract Utilization of subsurface reservoirs, including fluid extraction/injection, can induce stress changes and modify in‐situ chemical equilibrium causing subcritical fracturing and deformation. Here, we show that chemical complexation reactions at the newly created fracture surfaces within the crack tip limit fracturing during consolidation of granular calcite assemblages. Previously, we showed that analogous chemical complexation reactions can increase in‐situ fracture toughness in pre‐fractured single crystal calcite. To test the chemical complexation effect under subsurface conditions, we consolidated samples under increasing hydrostatic pressure to induce widespread intergranular fracturing in the presence of fluid containing common anions. Measured consolidation, acoustic emissions, and microfracturing demonstrate that deformation correlates with complexation affinity for calcium in calcite and aqueous anions. We observed that deformation is lowest in the presence of strongly complexing anions (e.g., sulphate), provided sufficient anion diffusion rates. This understanding is important for predicting reservoir effective strength in the presence of complex aqueous fluids.

Choens, R. C.↗