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At least 325 records · Page 18

The Value of Wind Technology Innovation: Implications for the U.S. Power System, Wind Industry, Electricity Consumers, and Environment

Improvements to wind technologies have, in part, led to substantial deployment of U.S. wind power in recent years. The degree to which technology innovation will continue is highly uncertain adding to uncertainties in future wind deployment. We apply electric sector modeling to estimate the potential wind deployment opportunities across a range of technology advancement projections. The suite of projections considered span a wide range of possible cost and technology innovation trajectories, including those from a recent expert elicitation of wind energy experts, a projection based on the broader literature, and one reflecting estimates based on a U.S. DOE research initiative. In addition, we explore how these deployment pathways may impact the electricity system, electricity consumers, the environment, and the wind-related workforce. Overall, our analysis finds that wind technology innovation can have consequential implications for future wind power development throughout the United States, impact the broader electricity system, lower electric system and consumer costs, provide potential environmental benefits, and grow the U.S. wind workforce.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Active Power Control of Wind Turbines for Ancillary Services: A Comparison of Pitch and Torque Control Methodologies

As wind energy generation becomes more prevalent in some regions, there is increased demand for wind power plants to provide ancillary services, which are essential for grid reliability. This paper compares two different wind turbine control methodologies to provide active power control (APC) ancillary services, which include derating or curtailing power generation, providing automatic generation control (AGC), and providing primary frequency control (PFC). The torque APC controller provides all power control through the power electronics whereas the pitch APC controller uses the blade pitch actuators as the primary means of power control. These controllers are simulated under various wind conditions with different derating set points and AGC participation levels. The metrics used to compare their performance are the damage equivalent loads (DELs) induced on the structural components and AGC performance metrics, which are used to determine the payments for AGC services by system operators in the United States. The simulation results show that derating the turbine reduces structural loads for both control methods, with the APC pitch control providing larger reductions in DELs, lower AGC performance scores, and higher root-mean-square pitch rates. Providing AGC increases the structural loads when compared to only derating the turbine, but even the AGC DELs are generally lower than those of the baseline control system. The torque APC control methodology also allows for more sustained PFC responses under certain derating conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Development of Kolmogoroff-Like Power Spectra in the Expanding Solar Wind

Power spectra of the solar wind fluctuations consistently exhibit a -5/3 power-law slope consistent with the idea that the medium is undergoing a turbulent cascade as seen in ordinary fluids. This is surprising both because the radial streams and the magnetic field threading the plasma will induce anisotropies and because the expansion of the wind will tend to lead to the suppression of nonlinear cascades. These conditions violate the assumptions used by Kolmogoroff to derive the -5/3 law. We have studied this issue using a compressible IMHD code in spherical coordinates and have shown that a -5/3 spectrum results from a broad-band flat-spectrum input condition that is sheared and distorted by a current sheet as the wind expands. We determine spectra from time series taken at selected points in the domain as is done with observational spacecraft data. The spectra are very like those we have seen in nonexpanding runs and exhibit evolution and compressive characteristics very similar to those seen in observations. We will report on these results in addition to a new set of runs intended to constrain the necessary and sufficient conditions for the spectra to have this form. The simulation also allows us to examine the anisotropy for the spectra to attempt to determine why the result of an isotropic magnetofluid is obtained in a highly anisotropic situation.

Goldstein, M. L.↗

The Power Curve Working Group's assessment of wind turbine power performance prediction methods

Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wind energy power conversion system reducing gearbox stress and improving power stability

A wind energy power conversion system includes a gearbox, a generator, an AC to DC power converter, a DC link, and a DC to AC power converter, and at least one ultracapacitor module connected in parallel on the DC link. A method of reducing stress on a wind turbine gearbox can be performed by obtaining an unwanted frequency of the wind energy power conversion system gearbox; determining an input torque value on the input shaft of the gearbox as a function of time; determining a frequency of the input torque value; and adjusting a torque on the output shaft of the gearbox based on the unwanted frequency.

Nasiri, Adel↗

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Power Curve Working Group's Assessment of Wind Turbine Power Performance Prediction Methods

A wind turbine power curve is often only strictly valid for a subset of all atmospheric conditions (i.e., the inner range), while wind turbines also operate in other scenarios (i.e., the outer range). Hence, modeling the power output in real-world conditions is a fundamental challenge. For example, the power deviation matrix (PDM) in Figure 1 displays an overprediction of power production using a reference power curve when wind speed (WS) and turbulence intensity (TI) are both low. Many experts use the PDM approach to observe any systematic bias in power curves and correct this in energy yield models. The mission of the Power Curve Working Group (PCWG) is to bring together wind industry stakeholders to help identify, validate, and develop ways to improve modeling of wind turbine performance in all atmospheric conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Analysis of Ideal Towers for Tall Wind Applications: Preprint

Innovation in wind turbine tower design is of significant interest for future development of wind power plants. First, wind turbine towers account for a large portion of overall capital expenditures for wind power projects. Second, for low wind-resource regions of the world, the use of low-cost tall-tower technology has the potential to open new markets for development. This study investigates the relative potential of various tower configurations in terms of mass and cost. For different market applications and hub heights, idealized tall towers are designed and compared. The results show that innovation in wind turbine controls makes reaching higher hub heights with current technology economically viable. At the same time, new technologies hold promise for reducing tower costs as these technologies mature and hub heights reach twice the current average.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling the effect of wind speed and direction shear on utility‐scale wind turbine power production

Abstract Wind speed and direction variations across the rotor affect power production. As utility‐scale turbines extend higher into the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with larger rotor diameters and hub heights, they increasingly encounter more complex wind speed and direction variations. We assess three models for power production that account for wind speed and direction shear. Two are based on actuator disc representations, and the third is a blade element representation. We also evaluate the predictions from a standard power curve model that has no knowledge of wind shear. The predictions from each model, driven by wind profile measurements from a profiling LiDAR, are compared to concurrent power measurements from an adjacent utility‐scale wind turbine. In the field measurements of the utility‐scale turbine, discrete combinations of speed and direction shear induce changes in power production of −19% to +34% relative to the turbine power curve for a given hub height wind speed. Positive speed shear generally corresponds to over‐performance and increasing magnitudes of direction shear to greater under‐performance, relative to the power curve. Overall, the blade element model produces both higher correlation and lower error relative to the other models, but its quantitative accuracy depends on induction and controller sub‐models. To further assess the influence of complex, non‐monotonic wind profiles, we also drive the models with best‐fit power law wind speed profiles and linear wind direction profiles. These idealized inputs produce qualitative and quantitative differences in power predictions from each model, demonstrating that time‐varying, non‐monotonic wind shear affects wind power production.

Energy & Fuels↗

Strategies for Continuous Balancing in Future Power Systems with High Wind and Solar Shares

The use of wind power has grown strongly in recent years and is expected to continue to increase in the coming decades. Solar power is also expected to increase significantly. In a power system, a continuous balance is maintained between total production and demand. This balancing is currently mainly managed with conventional power plants, but with larger amounts of wind and solar power, other sources will also be needed. Interesting possibilities include continuous control of wind and solar power, battery storage, electric vehicles, hydrogen production, and other demand resources with flexibility potential. The aim of this article is to describe and compare the different challenges and future possibilities in six systems concerning how to keep a continuous balance in the future with significantly larger amounts of variable renewable power production. A realistic understanding of how these systems plan to handle continuous balancing is central to effectively develop a carbon-dioxide-free electricity system of the future. The systems included in the overview are the Nordic synchronous area, the island of Ireland, the Iberian Peninsula, Texas (ERCOT), the central European system, and Great Britain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗

Network Based Estimation of Wind Farm Power and Velocity Data Under Changing Wind Direction

This paper describes an estimation algorithm for velocity and power output signals in a wind farm under changing wind direction. A graph-theoretic definition describes the wind farm as a collection of nodes (turbines) and time-varying weighted edges (inter-turbine wake propagation) that change as a function of incoming wind direction. The velocity at each turbine is determined through a discrete input-output model. Changes in wind direction serve as the input and the output is defined in terms of a time-varying weighted adjacency matrix that depends on the time-delay of information propagation between turbines. These delays, which are defined in terms of the advection speed of the wind and the distance between the turbines, capture the delayed effect of wind direction changes on the inter-connectivity of the graph as the wind conditions at the farm inlet propagate through the turbine array. An event-based update framework is employed to capture time-dependent topology changes due to shifts in wind direction. Simulation results for dynamically changing wind inlet directions to a circular wind farm are compared to predictions from both the static and dynamic versions of the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model. The approach is shown to enable real-time tracking of dynamic changes to wind farm power output within a framework that can be easily integrated into real-time, horizon-based, control strategies that typically do not account for wind direction changes.

distributed↗

Power and Wind Shear Implications of Large Wind Turbine Scenarios in the US Central Plains

Continued growth of wind turbine physical dimensions is examined in terms of the implications for wind speed, power and shear across the rotor plane. High-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to generate statistics of wind speed profiles for scenarios of current and future wind turbines. The nine-month simulations, focused on the eastern Central Plains, show that the power scales broadly as expected with the increase in rotor diameter (D) and wind speeds at hub-height (H). Increasing wind turbine dimensions from current values (approximately H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to those of the new International Energy Agency reference wind turbine (H = 150 m, D = 240 m), the power across the rotor plane increases 7.1 times. The mean domain-wide wind shear exponent (α) decreases from 0.21 (H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to 0.19 for the largest wind turbine scenario considered (H = 168 m, D = 248 m) and the frequency of extreme positive shear (α > 0.2) declines from 48% to 38% of 10-min periods. Thus, deployment of larger wind turbines potentially yields considerable net benefits for both the wind resource and reductions in fatigue loading related to vertical shear.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wind turbine power production and annual energy production depend on atmospheric stability and turbulence

Using detailed upwind and nacelle-based measurements from a General Electric (GE) 1.5sle model with a 77 m rotor diameter, we calculate power curves and annual energy production (AEP) and explore their sensitivity to different atmospheric parameters to provide guidelines for the use of stability and turbulence filters in segregating power curves. The wind measurements upwind of the turbine include anemometers mounted on a 135 m meteorological tower as well as profiles from a lidar. We calculate power curves for different regimes based on turbulence parameters such as turbulence intensity (TI) as well as atmospheric stability parameters such as the bulk Richardson number ( R B ). We also calculate AEP with and without these atmospheric filters and highlight differences between the results of these calculations. The power curves for different TI regimes reveal that increased TI undermines power production at wind speeds near rated, but TI increases power production at lower wind speeds at this site, the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). Similarly, power curves for different R B regimes reveal that periods of stable conditions produce more power at wind speeds near rated and periods of unstable conditions produce more power at lower wind speeds. AEP results suggest that calculations without filtering for these atmospheric regimes may overestimate the AEP. Because of statistically significant differences between power curves and AEP calculated with these turbulence and stability filters for this turbine at this site, we suggest implementing an additional step in analyzing power performance data to incorporate effects of atmospheric stability and turbulence across the rotor disk.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Voltage Impacts of Utility-Scale Distributed Wind

Although most utility-scale wind turbines in the United States are added at the transmission level in large wind power plants, distributed wind power offers an alternative that could increase the overall wind power penetration without the need for additional transmission. This report examines the distribution feeder-level voltage issues that can arise when adding utility-scale wind turbines to the distribution system. Four of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory taxonomy feeders were examined in detail to study the voltage issues associated with adding wind turbines at different distances from the sub-station. General rules relating feeder resistance up to the point of turbine interconnection to the expected maximum voltage change levels were developed. Additional analysis examined line and transformer overvoltage conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Probabilistic Sizing of Energy Storage Systems for Reliability and Frequency Security in Wind-Rich Power Grids

The penetration of wind energy has increased significantly in the power grid in recent times. Although wind is abundant, environment-friendly, and cheap, it is variable in nature and does not contribute to system inertia as much as conventional synchronous generators. Coupled with the low inertia contribution, the generation intermittency of wind power leads to reliability and stability issues in the power system. Energy storage systems (ESSs) are among the most prominent alternatives to alleviate these concerns associated with high wind penetration. This paper proposes a planning strategy to size ESS for the reliability and frequency security of wind-rich power grids. A probabilistic methodology for ESS sizing is developed utilizing a composite reliability-based framework with sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The MCS generates composite reliability indices for the power system, which are employed to obtain the capacity for a reliability energy storage system (RESS). Simultaneously, the MCS-derived probability of synchronization of conventional generators is integrated into an analytical approach for sizing a frequency support energy storage system (FESS). The effect of wind farm dispersion across geographical regions is incorporated in the framework to study possible reductions in the ESS size while maintaining the system reliability and frequency security. Furthermore, the efficacy of the proposed strategy is demonstrated on the RTS-GMLC test system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The importance of atmospheric turbulence and stability in machine-learning models of wind farm power production

Machine learning is frequently applied in the wind energy industry to build statistical models of wind farm power production using atmospheric data as input. In the field of wind power forecasting, in particular, there has been substantial research into finding the best-performing learning algorithms that improve model predictions. Overlooked in the literature, however, is the influence of atmospheric turbulence and stability measurements in improving model predictions. It has been well-established through observations and physical models that these effects can have considerable influence on wind farm power production; yet consideration of these effects in statistical models is almost entirely absent from the literature. In this work, we examine the impact of atmospheric turbulence and stability inputs on statistical model predictions of wind farm power output. Hourly observations from a wind farm in the Pacific Northwest United States located in very complex terrain are used. Five common learning algorithms and nine atmospheric variables are considered, five of which represent some measure of turbulence or stability. Here, we find a considerable improvement in hourly power predictions when some measure of turbulence or stability is included in the model. In particular, turbulent kinetic energy was found to be the most important variable apart from wind speed and more important than wind direction, pressure, and temperature. By contrast, the choice of learning algorithm is shown to be relatively less important in improving predictions. Based on this work, we recommend that turbulence and stability variables become standard inputs into statistical models of wind farm power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Economic Potential of Two Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems

Tightly coupled nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (N-R HESs) are an option that can generate zero-carbon, dispatchable electricity and provide zero-carbon energy for industrial processes at a lower cost than alternatives. N-R HESs are defined as systems that are managed by a single entity and link a nuclear reactor that generates heat, a thermal power cycle for heat to electricity conversion, at least one renewable energy source, and an industrial process that uses thermal and/or electrical energy. This report provides results of an analysis of two N-R HES scenarios. The first is a Texas-synthetic gasoline scenario that includes four subsystems: a nuclear reactor, thermal power cycle, wind power plant, and synthetic gasoline production technology. The second is an Arizona-desalination scenario with its four subsystems a nuclear reactor, thermal power cycle, solar photovoltaics, and a desalination plant. The analysis focuses on the economics of the N-R HESs and how they compare to other options, including configurations without all the subsystems in each N-R HES and alternatives where the energy is provided by natural gas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗