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At least 325 records · Page 18

Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia

On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on January 22, 2019, leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area were studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system which developed over the Java Sea. Low-Level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92 % of December-January-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, which the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is eight times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.

Latos, Beata↗

The role of equatorial waves in triggering precipitation extremes in the Maritime Continent

This review offers a comprehensive analysis of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and their pivotal role in driving precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent. It examines the current understanding of CCEWs, evaluates the performance of numerical models and forecasting techniques in predicting these phenomena, and pinpoints critical areas for improvement. The discussion centers on three key types of equatorial waves: equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. By connecting scientific insights with practical forecasting applications, the review sheds light on the challenges of predicting these waves while identifying opportunities to advance both fundamental knowledge and forecasting accuracy. Designed as an educational resource, it targets operational forecasting centers, meteorologists, and researchers, aiming to enhance the prediction of extreme weather events in the region.

Maritime Continent↗

Poxvirus infection triggers remodeling of host m⁶A epitranscriptome and benefits from the m⁶A regulatory responses

Understanding how host gene regulation responds to viral infection is essential for developing effective antiviral strategies. Emerging evidence suggests that host transcripts undergo dynamic chemical modifications to counteract viral invasion. Conversely, viruses that rely on nuclear transcription exploit host RNA methyltransferases to enhance mRNA export and translation. Orthopoxviruses, however, complete their entire replication cycle within compartmentalized cytoplasmic “factories” utilizing enzymes encoded by their large double-stranded viral DNA genomes. The dynamic interplay between host and poxviral epitranscriptome remains poorly characterized. Using a temporally resolved model of Vaccinia virus (VV) infection, we investigated host-virus interactions through transcriptome and N6-methyladenosine (m⁶A) epitranscriptome whole genome sequencing. We found that host m⁶A modifications respond rapidly to VV infection, preceding the delayed transcriptional changes that emerge at later stages. Early m⁶A signatures included key innate immunity factors as well as host genes involved in transcriptional regulation, post-transcriptional modification, and protein ubiquitination. Functional assays validated two host factors with early m⁶A modification changes that are essential for VV infection: a m⁶A reader, YTHDF1, and a component of the SCF E3 ubiquitin ligase complex, FBXO31. The m⁶A gain on YTHDF1 enhanced its protein expression and promoted efficient VV replication. In addition, we identified previously unrecognized roles of FBXO31 and the SCF E3 ligase complex in supporting VV infection. Temporal profiling of the m⁶A epitranscriptome reveals how VV exploits host post-transcriptional regulatory pathways, specifically m⁶A RNA modification and protein ubiquitination. These findings highlight critical host factors co-opted during poxvirus infection and identify potential targets for therapeutic intervention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bridging Land-Surface Fluxes and Aerosol Concentrations to Triggering Convective Rainfall

During the period August 24-28, 2016, a delayed component the GO-Amazon Project, we launched nine altitude-controlled free balloons (CMET). Smaller than typical rawinsondes, CMET are equipped with altitude control, global communication via Iridium satellite, and aspirated sensors. The aims of our effort were to examine the interactions among convective boundary layer and dual river breeze circulations near the confluence of the Tapajos and Amazon Rivers in the eastern Basin. The week-long field campaign was timed to examine the reestablishment of the breeze circulations shortly after the passage of a strong instability line on August 22. Nine CMET were launched at the Curua-Una hydroelectric dam (2.8S; 54.3W), timed to encounter the Tapajos river breeze front by late afternoon. Soundings were made to establish the thickness of interface between the easterly trade and westerly Tapajos breeze circulation. Careful use of sounding strategies allowed these free balloons to track along the northerly channeled flow in the lowest 300 m above the River. Following the river encounter, balloons tracked to the west, sounding to describe the diurnal course of boundary layer in the forest west of the Tapajos River. The longest flight traveled more than 770 km over three days and twice rested overnight in the rain forest canopy. Ancillary data from surface climate and flux stations as well as the Santarem radiosonde, satellite images will be used to illustrate how the breeze circulations are seen near the surface and how they were disrupted by larger-scale events. Comparisons with HYSPLIT trajectories illustrate how sensitive real trajectories are to the refraction that the encounter with the breeze effects. A second effort was intensive analyses of data from the eddy flux tower at the Tapajós National Forest near Santarém Pará Brazil, with special emphasis on the role of clouds and canopy presence on light absorbance and photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Damage Dynamics and Problems of Scale for Induced and Triggered Seismicity in Reservoirs

In this report, we present a high-level summary of the research we performed on this grant during the years 2017-2024. It is important to note that several of these years were the years of the COVID pandemic, and our research activities were severely impacted by these events, as were many other groups and investigators. However, we can report that we largely achieved the results we proposed. We also list below the papers published under funding from this grant over all those years.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Intelligent Triggers for Rare Event Detection in Liquid Argon Detectors

Next-generation neutrino experiments like SBND and DUNE rely on Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs), which produce exceptionally detailed data at high volume. Capturing rare or unexpected events in real-time is a major challenge. Our project explores the use of machine learning, specifically autoencoder-based anomaly detection, to identify unusual activity directly from raw detector signals. Inspired by successes at the CMS experiment, we demonstrate that such methods can be adapted to LArTPCs and show promising results in both simulated studies and early steps toward real-time hardware deployment. This approach could open new avenues for detecting signals from physics beyond the Standard Model.

Chung, Seokju [Columbia U. (main)]↗