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DOE OSTI2020

Refrigerants: Market Trends and Supply Chain Assessment

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in partnership with ORNL, under the Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center (CEMAC www.manufacturingcleanenergy.org) umbrella, assessed the current state of existing and low-GWP refrigerants for major end-use applications, including HVAC and those outside of the HVAC industry. The project incorporated a market overview, and supply chain assessment to determine the production, distribution, consumption, costs, and potential operating efficiency impacts of new and alternative refrigerants entering the market. Market trends and ongoing research are also documented. This work supplements other DOE efforts to support research activities on refrigerants and their applications including a refrigerant R&D roadmap and outlook into global air conditioning markets (Goetzler et al. 2014, 2016).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Landsat-based Irrigation Dataset (LANID): 30 m resolution maps of irrigation distribution, frequency, and change for the US, 1997–2017

Abstract. Data on irrigation patterns and trends at field-level detail across broad extents are vital for assessing and managing limited water resources. Until recently, there has been a scarcity of comprehensive, consistent, and frequent irrigation maps for the US. Here we present the new Landsat-based Irrigation Dataset (LANID), which is comprised of 30 m resolution annual irrigation maps covering the conterminous US (CONUS) for the period of 1997–2017. The main dataset identifies the annual extent of irrigated croplands, pastureland, and hay for each year in the study period. Derivative maps include layers on maximum irrigated extent, irrigation frequency and trends, and identification of formerly irrigated areas and intermittently irrigated lands. Temporal analysis reveals that 38.5×106 ha of croplands and pasture–hay has been irrigated, among which the yearly active area ranged from ∼22.6 to 24.7×106 ha. The LANID products provide several improvements over other irrigation data including field-level details on irrigation change and frequency, an annual time step, and a collection of ∼10 000 visually interpreted ground reference locations for the eastern US where such data have been lacking. Our maps demonstrated overall accuracy above 90 % across all years and regions, including in the more humid and challenging-to-map eastern US, marking a significant advancement over other products, whose accuracies ranged from 50 % to 80 %. In terms of change detection, our maps yield per-pixel transition accuracy of 81 % and show good agreement with US Department of Agriculture reports at both county and state levels. The described annual maps, derivative layers, and ground reference data provide users with unique opportunities to study local to nationwide trends, driving forces, and consequences of irrigation and encourage the further development and assessment of new approaches for improved mapping of irrigation, especially in challenging areas like the eastern US. The annual LANID maps, derivative products, and ground reference data are available through https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5548555 (Xie and Lark, 2021a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of the Aeroelastic Dynamics of Lightweight Flexible Variations of the SNL-NRT Turbine

Current trends show that wind turbines are growing in size to meet a rising demand for renewable energy generation, and their upscaled rotors have inherently become more flexible to maintain a proportionally lighter design. This is because larger rotors must be less massive relative to their diameter to minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which means that blades that are notably less stiff are produced as a result. These structural changes to blades are often reflected in their compromised aeroelastic stability and amplified deformation during operation, which has the potential to decrease the blade’s expected lifetime and the performance of the machine overall. Variations in blade flexibility are also known to influence vortex-wake structures downstream of the turbine, causing patterns of velocity deficit to evolve in ways that affect the performance of other turbines in the farm. This research explores how the increased flexibility of modern utility-scale wind turbine blades influences rotor aeroelastic behavior and interactions with farm flow. High-fidelity simulations of Sandia National Laboratories’ (SNL) National Rotor Testbed (NRT) wind turbine are presented. Flexible variations of the NRT baseline blade are simulated in a variety of realistic operational conditions typically expected at the SNL’s SWiFT facility in Lubbock, Texas. Solutions are then compared to investigate how specific changes to the structural properties of the NRT baseline blade’s design and construction can influence its aeroelastic response at the rotor and the evolution of the turbine’s wake.

Farrell, Alayna (ORCID:000000023555720X)↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evidence for Cosmic Acceleration Is Robust to Observed Correlations between Type Ia Supernova Luminosity and Stellar Age

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful standardizable candles for constraining cosmological models and provided the first evidence of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Their precision derives from empirical correlations, now measured from >1000 SNe Ia, between their luminosities, light-curve shapes, colors, and most recently with the stellar mass of their host galaxy. As mass correlates with other galaxy properties, alternative parameters have been investigated to improve SN Ia standardization though none have been shown to significantly alter the determination of cosmological parameters. We re-examine a recent claim, based on 34 SN Ia in nearby passive host galaxies, of a 0.05 mag Gyr -1 dependence of standardized SN Ia luminosity on host age, which, if extrapolated to higher redshifts, would be a bias up to 0.25 mag, challenging the inference of dark energy. We reanalyze this sample of hosts using both the original method and a Bayesian hierarchical model and find after a fuller accounting of the uncertainties the significance of a dependence on age to be ≤2σ and ~1σ after the removal of a single poorly sampled SN Ia. Here, to test the claim that a trend seen in old stellar populations can be applied to younger ages, we extend our analysis to a larger sample that includes young hosts. We find the residual dependence of host age (after all standardization typically employed for cosmological measurements) to be consistent with zero for 254 SNe Ia from the Pantheon sample, ruling out the large but low significance trend seen in passive hosts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

bifacial↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint

energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Compatibility of Elastomers with Polyoxymethylene Dimethyl Ethers and Blends with Diesel

Polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers (PODEs) have shown promise as candidates for diesel fuel blendstocks due to their low sooting tendency, high cetane number, and diesel-comparable boiling point range. However, there is a lack of literature regarding compatibility of PODEs with common automotive elastomers, which would be a prerequisite to their adoption into the marketplace. To address this need, an exposure study and complementary solubility analysis were undertaken. A commercially available blend of PODEs with polymerization degree ranging from 3 to 6 was blended with diesel certification fuel at 0, 33, 50, 67, at 100% by mass. Elastomer coupons were exposed to the various blends for a period of 4 weeks and evaluated for volume swell. The elastomer materials included multiple fluoroelastomers (Viton and fluorosilicone) and acrylonitrile butadiene rubbers (NBR), as well as neoprene, polyurethane, epichlorohydrin (ECO), PVC-nitrile blend (OZO), ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM), styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), and silicone. The exposure results indicated overall poor compatibility for PODE, with every elastomer except for fluorosilicone exhibiting greater than 30% volume swell at the 33% blend level. The general trend across the elastomers was either a consistent increase in volume swell with PODE concentration, or maximum in volume swell at an intermediate blend fraction. One notable exception is EPDM, which is not generally compatible with diesel fuel and which exhibited a reduction in volume swell with increasing PODE concentration. The same elastomers and PODE/diesel blends were evaluated using Hansen solubility parameter analysis, which predicted similar trends to the exposure study with the exception of ECO. From these results, we conclude that adoption of PODEs as a diesel fuel blendstock will require either the development of specialized elastomers, or that the blend fraction be kept to a low level to maintain compatibility with existing elastomers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning-assisted analysis of transition metal dichalcogenide thin-film growth

In situ reflective high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED) is widely used to monitor the surface crystalline state during thin-film growth by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) and pulsed laser deposition. With the recent development of machine learning (ML), ML-assisted analysis of RHEED videos aids in interpreting the complete RHEED data of oxide thin films. The quantitative analysis of RHEED data allows us to characterize and categorize the growth modes step by step, and extract hidden knowledge of the epitaxial film growth process. In this study, we employed the ML-assisted RHEED analysis method to investigate the growth of 2D thin films of transition metal dichalcogenides (ReSe2) on graphene substrates by MBE. Principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering were used to separate statistically important patterns and visualize the trend of pattern evolution without any notable loss of information. Using the modified PCA, we could monitor the diffraction intensity of solely the ReSe2 layers by filtering out the substrate contribution. These findings demonstrate that ML analysis can be successfully employed to examine and understand the film-growth dynamics of 2D materials. Further, the ML-based method can pave the way for the development of advanced real-time monitoring and autonomous material synthesis techniques.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Driving to the future of energy storage: Techno-economic analysis of a novel method to recondition second life electric vehicle batteries

Not provided.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Evolution of Volatile Memory Forensics

The collection and analysis of volatile memory is a vibrant area of research in the cybersecurity community. The ever-evolving and growing threat landscape is trending towards fileless malware, which avoids traditional detection but can be found by examining a system’s random access memory (RAM). Additionally, volatile memory analysis offers great insight into other malicious vectors. It contains fragments of encrypted files’ contents, as well as lists of running processes, imported modules, and network connections, all of which are difficult or impossible to extract from the file system. For these compelling reasons, recent research efforts have focused on the collection of memory snapshots and methods to analyze them for the presence of malware. However, to the best of our knowledge, no current reviews or surveys exist that systematize the research on both memory acquisition and analysis. We fill that gap with this novel survey by exploring the state-of-the-art tools and techniques for volatile memory acquisition and analysis for malware identification. For memory acquisition methods, we explore the trade-offs many techniques make between snapshot quality, performance overhead, and security. For memory analysis, we examined the traditional forensic methods used, including signature-based methods, dynamic methods performed in a sandbox environment, as well as machine learning-based approaches. We summarize the currently available tools, and suggest areas for more research.

Nyholm, Hannah↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrodynamic Test Requirements Process Improvements

Hydrodynamic testing at Los Alamos National Laboratory would benefit from a process improvement for the requirements process. Cameo was used as a digital solution for requirements management to allow Lead Engineers to track requirements more effectively. This was identified as a process improvement throughout this Capstone project. This report includes a project proposal, business case, literature review, methodology, project plan, data analysis, decision-making report, financial analysis report, discussion, and conclusion. Initially, this project focused on figuring out a solution for the hydrotest requirement process improvements. The scope narrowed to focus on the use of Cameo for requirement capture and management. During this Capstone, four tests had digital models produced for requirements management in Cameo. The initial model was the baseline, with core requirements used across the tests. Commonalities in tests were used and the core requirements allowed for process efficiencies. In the data analysis, it was seen that overall, the implementation of using Cameo for requirements resulted in a decreasing trend for both schedule and normalized cost. Tests have different complexity levels which is also a factor in how long the requirements process will take. Additional data is needed to continue analyzing process improvements. Through decisionmaking and financial analysis, the recommendation was to use Cameo for requirements process improvement. Multiple experts provided feedback for requirements that were then captured within models. Numerous tangible and intangible benefits were identified with this process improvement. For return on investment, the metric of success was schedule reduction, which was overall seen. Four tests were analyzed, so future analysis will be needed. There is also not a great financial risk because the main cost would be purchasing more licenses. Individuals must generate requirements whether using this software or not. Overall, training is needed to help improve the skillsets of Lead Engineers but is already being supported on a regular frequency. A desktop guide was started associated with explaining the process, however, it is a work in progress. The team plans on adding additional information in the digital models to help status when requirements are met using verification methods and artifacts. From working on this project an improved understanding of Cameo and requirements was the result. There are future opportunities to extend the usage for requirements management and progress will continue after this project.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Network performance analysis for HPC datacenters (net_perf) v1.0

The software has two main features: (1) identify data movement trends in HPC data centers that use network flow monitoring (2) analyze the performance of individual data flows under the existing data movement management strategy and identify performance bottlenecks that impede timely data availability for science workflows. Its main advantage is that it is tailored for HPC network traffic by considering HPC data movement management intricacies.

Giannakou, Anna↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature-Dependent Mechanical Properties of Ni-Based Concentrated Alloys: Insights from First-Principles Calculations

The present work focuses on predicting temperature-dependent mechanical properties of Ni-based concentrated alloys Ni 18 Cr 10 Co 10 Fe 6 M 4 (abbreviated by X 44 M 4 , with M = Al, V, Mn, Fe, Nb, Mo, and W) using density functional theory (DFT). These predictions are based on shear (plastic) and elastic deformations, utilizing the special quasirandom structure (SQS), the phonon-based quasiharmonic approach (QHA), and the quasistatic approach. The resulting properties include coefficient of thermal expansion via QHA, ideal shear strength (τ IS ), and stable and unstable stacking fault energies (γ SF and γ US ) through pure alias shear deformation, and elastic constants (c ij ), bulk modulus (B 0 ), and shear modules (G 0 ) via elastic deformation. Notably, predicting accurate γ SF is challenging due to uncertainties that can exceed the γ SF values. τ IS and γ US exhibit a strong linear relationship, enabling the accurate prediction of γ US based on the precisely determined τ IS . All mechanical properties of X 44 M 4 decrease with increasing temperature, except for some γ SF cases such as X 44 M 4 with M = V, Mn, Fe, Mo, and W. Among the X 44 M 4 alloys, X 44 Nb 4 exhibits the lowest τ IS , γ US , and G 0 values, and the highest B 0 /G 0 ratio, while X 44 Mn 4 has the lowest B 0 and B 0 /G 0 ratio. We found that volume is a crucial descriptor for understanding and modeling mechanical properties (except B0 and maybe also γ SF ) affected by alloying elements and temperature. Ni-based dilute alloys (e.g., Ni 11 M 1 and Ni 31 M 1 ) and concentrated alloys (e.g., X 44 M 4 ) show similar trends in mechanical properties influenced by alloying elements and temperature, simplifying the analysis and design of Ni-based alloys.

Elastic properties↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning in nuclear materials research

Nuclear materials are often demanded to function for extended time in extreme environments, including high radiation fluxes with associated transmutations, high temperature and temperature gradients, mechanical stresses, and corrosive coolants. They also have a wide range of microstructural and chemical makeups, resulting in multifaceted and often out-of-equilibrium interactions. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being used to tackle these complex time-dependent interactions and aid researchers in developing models and making predictions, sometimes with better accuracy than traditional modeling that focuses on one or two parameters at a time. Conventional practices of acquiring new experimental data in nuclear materials research are often slow and expensive, limiting the opportunity for data-centric ML, but new methods are changing that paradigm. Here we review high-throughput computational and experimental data approaches, especially robotic experimentation and active learning that is based on Gaussian process and Bayesian optimization. We show ML examples in structural materials (e.g., reactor pressure vessel (RPV) alloys and radiation detecting scintillating materials) and highlight new techniques of high-throughput sample preparation and characterizations, and automated radiation/environmental exposures and real-time online diagnostics. Herein, this review suggests that ML models of material constitutive relations in plasticity, damage, and even electronic and optical responses to radiation are likely to become powerful tools as they develop. Finally, we speculate on how the recent trends of using natural language processing (NLP) to aid the collection and analysis of literature data, interpretable artificial intelligence (AI), and the use of streamlined scripting, database, workflow management, and cloud computing platforms that will soon make the utilization of ML techniques as commonplace as the spreadsheet curve-fitting practices of today.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tensile behavior and microstructural evolution of a Fe-25Ni-20Cr austenitic stainless steel (alloy 709) from room to elevated temperatures through in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction characterization and transmission electron microscopy

Uniaxial tensile tests were done on Fe-25Ni-20Cr Austenitic Stainless Steel (Alloy 709) along with in-situ synchrotron measurement at different temperatures (25 degrees C, 500 degrees C, 700 degrees C and 900 degrees C). The X-Ray diffraction data was collected in-situ in order to follow the phases present as well as to derive the dislocation density as a function of strain through peak broadening analysis based on the modified Williamson-Hall method and see how trends are affected as a function of temperature. The XRD data were complemented by TEM and STEM-EDX characterization done on the post-experiment samples to observe the deformed microstructures. Finally, the paper presents a depiction of the tensile behavior of this advanced steel by interpreting the stress-strain curves and the effect of temperature through the information gained by in-situ XRD and TEM observations as well as fractography done ex-situ on the samples tested to rupture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating an executive summary of a time series: the tendency

In this paper, we revisit the problem of decomposing a signal into a tendency and a residual. The tendency describes an executive summary of a signal that encapsulates its notable characteristics while disregarding seemingly random, less interesting aspects. Building upon the Intrinsic Time Decomposition (ITD) and information-theoretical analysis, we introduce two alternative procedures for selecting the tendency from the ITD baselines. The first is based on the maximum extrema prominence, namely the maximum difference between extrema within each baseline. Specifically this method selects the tendency as the baseline from which an ITD step would produce the largest decline of the maximum prominence. The second method uses the rotations from the ITD and selects the tendency as the last baseline for which the associated rotation is statistically stationary. We delve into a comparative analysis of the information content and interpretability of the tendencies obtained by our proposed methods and those obtained through conventional low-pass filtering schemes, particularly the Hodrik–Prescott (HP) filter. Our findings underscore a fundamental distinction in the nature and interpretability of these tendencies, highlighting their context-dependent utility with emphasis in multi-scale signals. Through a series of real-world applications, we demonstrate the computational robustness and practical utility of our proposed tendencies, emphasizing their adaptability and relevance in diverse time series contexts.

Time series analysis↗