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Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Medicine and Pharmacogenomics for Human Deep Space Exploration

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expanding duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be even more essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to further tailor medications included in the spacecraft formulary and increased examination of appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of cutting-edge research and medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique factors and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. One example is the field of pharmacogenomics (PGX),the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on pharmaceutical choice and dosing to avoid adverse drug events and maximize pharmacological efficacy. The goal of this study was to evaluate which drugs in the current space pharmacy could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs onboard the International Space Station (ISS) was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both personal astronaut medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in 157 total drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure. Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent adverse events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost or technical and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high).A comprehensive assessment of commercially available PGX solutions is currently underway to evaluate specimen requirements, cost/benefit analysis (cost vs. number of alleles assessed), utility of variant analysis, relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments(LxC 5x5 table) indicated29medicationswere in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly by drug failure or safety concerns, with the remainder(n=128)of the medications in the green zone where risk is acceptable. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive pre-flight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve targeting drug efficacy and safety, and further open the door to countermeasure research exploring PGX-related allelic variants. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more cost effective and more efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing crew autonomy and providing tailored countermeasures

Alice R W Tang↗

Preprocessing of municipal solid waste towards thermal insulating material

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is one of the significant challenges in today’s world. A continuous surge in population, increasing living standards, and rapid urbanization are generating an enormous quantity of MSW. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported that the total generation of MSW in the United States in 2018 was 292.4 million tons. Improper management of this MSW often leads to the release of greenhouse gases, emission of particulate matters, and formation of dioxins, which all ultimately contributes to climate change. Recycling these wastes via landfills with gas recovery and/or energy and material production via thermal and chemical conversions could be viable options to manage these challenges. Depending on the inherent chemical and structural properties of unrecycled wastes, the carbon structures can be tailored for processing and reuse in manufacturing of structural composites, building materials such as insulation, carbon dense reactant materials such as activated carbon, and so on. According to the EPA’s estimation, MSW in the United States is approximately 23% paper and paperboard, 12% plastics, 6% wood and 6% is textiles. Thus, this research focused on the feasibility of using the MSW as insulation material for the construction sector. The goal of this work was to determine the range of particle sizes, consolidation ratios, and component blends that can achieve insulation R-values within at least 70% that of traditional blown cellulose fiber. To achieve this goal, we designed the testing matrix based on five different component blends, three different particle sizes, and three different compaction level. An American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) method (C-739) was used to measure the R-value of the insulation material. Results showed that, adding more paper component in addition to smaller particle size and loose compaction made the insulation similar to the traditional blown cellulose fiber insulation as the R-value was within a range of 2.5-3.0 per inch.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Augmented Monitoring and Condition Assessment Program for SNF Wet Storage Life Extension - 20489

Approximately 27 MTHM of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) owned and managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Environmental Management is stored in the L Basin at the Savannah River Site (SRS). This 'DOE SNF' is comprised of approximately 12,000 aluminum-clad, aluminum-based fuel assemblies (∼7 MTHM), and approximately 2000 non-aluminum fuel assemblies (∼20 MTHM). A program is in progress to perform Non-Destructive Examination (NDE) of the fuel and their storage containers to characterize the materials' condition, and to evaluate the effects of service to enable continued safe wet storage of the SNF. The Augmented Monitoring and Condition Assessment Program (AMCAP), a two-part program to develop and implement remote underwater Non-Destructive Examination of the aluminum SNF, and of the containers of the non-aluminum SNF, respectively, is aimed at the characterization and evaluation of corrosion degradation of aluminum fuel and container materials. The predominant design of the aluminum SNF (ASNF) stored in L Basin is the Materials Test Reactor (MTR) equivalent design, a plate fuel design. These SNF are stored in 5'' diameter tubes or 5'' x 5'' squares (called bundles) that are nominally 12' or up to 14' long. The SNF is de-bundled and inspected using a custom-designed MTR Fuel Inspection Table. The inspection table provides for indexed fuel positioning for a video camera examination with controlled lighting. A total of 10 of the SNF originating from foreign research and test reactors were selected for examination based on burnup, enrichment, and prior damage caused by service/storage history. A special inspection campaign of these 10 assemblies is in progress. The observed corrosion damage included minor to moderate attack from general corrosion, pitting, crevice, end grain and galvanic corrosion. Example results from the completed inspections are shown and discussed. The focus is a comparison of the as-received condition versus the as-found current storage condition that will serve to validate Water Chemistry and Corrosion Monitoring Programs. The non-aluminum SNF (NASNF) stored in L Basin are of diverse design that includes various geometries with claddings of stainless steel, Zircaloy, and Hastelloy. The fuel core materials include uranium alloys, oxides/mixed oxides, and carbides. These SNF materials, originating from early experimental and test reactors, are in various physical forms including single fuel elements and cut pieces. The fuel is stored in L Basin in various configurations including in direct bundled storage in aluminum tubes and in isolation cans that are in the bundles or in a larger over-size storage container (OSC). Concern with inside-out corrosion and the potential loss of configuration control and ability to handle the storage containers prompted the development of remote NDE methods that include visual and UT technologies to assess the condition of the containers. Candidate stored materials were selected for a special inspection campaign; the development of the NDE methods for the inspection for galvanic, crevice and sediment-induced corrosion (inside-out) are discussed. A summary of the SNF storage in L Basin at the SRS, and an overview of the AMCAP to enable continued safe storage of DOE SNF are described. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Thermostat Control for Load Shifting in Large Offices

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - thermostat control for load shifting. The thermostat control for load shifting measure applies heating and cooling temperature setpoint adjustment for pre-conditioning before the peak window. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start time of the peak window, and then adjusts the thermostat cooling or heating setpoints by a specified offset value from original schedules to precool or preheat the space , for a specified length of time before the start of peak window, and thus shifts load in the peak window to the pre-conditioning period. The measure is flexible and allows users to adjust the heating and cooling offset values and length of pre-conditioning period, but for this study, the load shifting strategy is applied as pre-cooling only (adjusting only cooling setpoints). The default adjustment for cooling setpoints is set to -1 degrees Celsius , and the default duration of pre-cooling is 1 hour. This measure is applicable to large offices equipped with electric HVAC system, which account for approximately 8.72% of the ComStock floor area. The thermostat control for load shifting measure demonstrates -1% daily peak demand reduction and 0% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Health and Pharmacogenomics

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expand in duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to tailor medications for individual crewmembers and further examine appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique clinical and environmental history, genetic makeup, and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. A subset of this field is pharmacogenomics (PGX), the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on drug choice and dosing to avoid adverse events and maximize efficacy. The study goal was to identify which current space pharmacy drugs could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs on the ISS was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both astronauts’ personal medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) contained in the ISS medical accessory kit (IMAK), and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in a total of 157 drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure (LxC). Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent ineffective treatment or impactful side effect events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost, or technical criteria and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). An assessment of PGX reference laboratories is currently underway to evaluate sample requirements, benefit analysis (cost vs. utility of allele variant analysis), relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments (LxC 5x5 table) indicated 128 medications were in the green zone where risk is acceptable, with the remaining 29 of the medications in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly due to drug failure or safety concerns. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive preflight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve drug efficacy, and further open the door to countermeasure research. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more effective and efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing selection of the best treatment choice, and providing tailored countermeasures for individual crewmembers.

Pharmacogenomics↗

NRC Multiphysics Analysis Capability Deployment FY2020 - Part 4

This report details progress and activities of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) project “Development and Modeling Sup- port for Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors.” The tasks completed for this report are: • Task 3a: This task demonstrates the effectiveness of Griffin’s methods for interpolating cross sections and SPH correction factors as a function of control drum rotation. The Monte Carlo code Serpent is used to generate reference results. The accuracy of Griffin-calculated eigenvalues and reaction rates are studied as a function of control drum rotation for cross section and SPH factor libraries of varying fidelity. Higher-fidelity libraries require less interpolation and are therefore inherently more accurate; however, they require more computational resources to create. Overall, Griffin is able to accurately model eigenvalue and reaction rates over the full range of drum rotation using a library generated from three to five discrete drum rotations for a particular microreactor design. • Task 3c: This preliminary task successfully demonstrates the performance of a coupled neutron-photon transport calculation with Griffin using the spherical harmonics approximation. The Griffin solutions are compared to reference solutions from the continuous energy Monte Carlo codes MCNP and Serpent. Furthermore, this work also demonstrates how to prepare the neutron and photon libraries using NJOY, MCNP, and Serpent with the latest ENDF/B-VIII data for 235 U and graphite. The Griffin total energy deposition in the active core region is calculated within 0.3% of the reference, but it degrades in the reflector regions with a maximum difference of -1.5%. Overall, the results look promising and future analysis should use an improved data stream and focus on determining the potential cancellation of error within each energy group.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Fluid Shifts

Introduction. NASA's Human Research Program is focused on addressing health risks associated with long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but now more than 50 percent of ISS astronauts have experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural findings such as optic disc edema, globe flattening and choroidal folds. These structural and functional changes are referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. Development of VIIP symptoms may be related to elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) secondary to spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight and to determine if a relation exists with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as any VIIP-related effects of those shifts, are predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight status and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations, specifically posture changes and lower body negative pressure. Methods. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, and calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound); (3) vascular dimensions by ultrasound (jugular veins, cerebral and carotid arteries, vertebral arteries and veins, portal vein); (4) vascular dynamics by MRI (head/neck blood flow, cerebrospinal fluid pulsatility); (5) ocular measures (optical coherence tomography; intraocular pressure; 2-dimensional ultrasound including optic nerve sheath diameter, globe flattening, and retina-choroid thickness; Doppler ultrasound of ophthalmic and retinal arteries and veins); (6) cardiac variables by ultrasound (inferior vena cava, tricuspid flow and tissue Doppler, pulmonic valve, stroke volume, right heart dimensions and function, four-chamber views); and (7) ICP measures (tympanic membrane displacement, otoacoustic emissions). Pre- and post-flight, acute head-down tilt will induce cephalad fluid shifts, whereas lower body negative pressure will oppose these shifts. Controlled Mueller maneuvers will manipulate cardiovascular variables. Through interventions applied before, during, and after flight, we intend to fully evaluate the relationship between fluid shifts and the VIIP syndrome. Discussion. Ten subjects have consented to participate in this experiment, including the recent One-Year Mission crewmembers, who have recently completed R plus180 testing; all other subjects have completed pre-flight testing. Preliminary results from the One-Year Mission crewmembers will be presented, including measures of ocular structure and function, vascular dimensions, fluid distribution, and non-invasive estimates of intracranial pressure.

Stenger, M. B.↗

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data Driven Fault Detection of Premixer Centerbody Degradation in a Swirl Combustor

This paper introduces a data-driven framework for combustor-focused, performance-based condition monitoring of gas turbines. Commercial condition monitoring systems typically generate huge amounts of data that make efficient onboard monitoring challenging. This paper focuses on quantifying combustor component degradation, using premixer centerbody degradation in a swirl stabilized combustor as a case study. The input for these analyses is acoustic pressure measurements acquired at various locations on the combustor. The diagnosis methodology is based on a classification framework and consists of 3 steps: 1) Data curation, 2) Feature Engineering, and 3) Diagnosis. Data curation ensures good quality of the data that is passed through the algorithm. Feature engineering deals with the extraction of the most informative features, from the most informative sensors, that can accurately capture the introduced fault. To perform diagnosis, the classification model is trained using experimentally acquired data and is then tested on a separate data set. The framework was able to achieve high classification accuracy (>99%) for training size as low as 30% of the total recorded observations. The low number of features required to achieve this accuracy suggests high potential for integration into existing onboard condition monitoring systems.

data driven methods, fault detection, swirl flames↗

Developing Fuel Cell Electric Powertrain Architectures for Commercial Vehicles

Here, this article addresses the architecture development for a commercial vehicle fuel cell electric powertrain by establishing a clear multi-step formalized workflow that employs a unique technoeconomic solution for architecture selection. The power capability of the fuel cell, the energy capacity and chemistry of the electrical energy storage (battery), the DC-DC converter (including the input current rating and isolation resistance requirements), the traction drive solution, the on-board hydrogen storage solution, and the real-time power-split management of the fuel cell and the battery are all considered and developed in this effort. The methods were used to select architecture for Class 8 urban, regional, and line haul applications. When compared to traditional load-following power-split controllers, an energy management power-split controller can increase system energy efficiency by up to 19.5%. The energy-efficient power-split controller may increase the required battery capacity for an equivalent life by up to 2.6 times. The impact on the total cost of ownership (TCO) for a variety of financial cases demonstrates that high C-rate capable batteries have the potential to provide better TCO solutions over a six-year vehicle life than low C-rate capable batteries. To achieve TCO parity with the 600 A non-isolated DC-DC converter case, the specific choice of the fuel cell DC-DC converter to achieve a target power output based on current levels (from 500 A to 2400 A) shows that efficiency decreases and cost increases due to the higher current, requiring fuel cell prices to decrease by $50–$100/kW, $60–$110/kW, and $100–$220/kW for urban, regional, and line haul applications, respectively. Key recommendations for powertrain system architectures are provided, with specifics based on vehicle dynamics, mission and application characteristics, end customer use-case profile, critical powertrain component costs, and architecture selection cost function. This study rigorously demonstrates the interplay of the above parameters, with a focus on TCO, and provides application decision-makers with a mechanism and well-defined set of impact factors to consider as part of their architecture selection process.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advances in the long-pulse steady-state high beta H-mode scenario with active controls of divertor heat and particle fluxes in EAST

Since the last IAEA-Fusion Energy Conference, the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) research program has been, in support of ITER and CFETR, focused on development in terms of the long-pulse steady-state (fully noninductive) high beta H-mode scenario with active controls of the stationary and transient divertor heat and particle fluxes. The operational domain of the steady-state H-mode plasma scenario has been significantly extended with ITER-like tungsten mono-block divertor, plasma control and heating schemes. EAST has achieved several important milestones in the development of high β p H-mode scenario and its key physics and technologies. A 60 s-scale long-pulse steady-state high β p H-mode discharge with the major normalized plasma parameters similar to the designed performance of the CFETR 1GW fusion power operation scenario has been successfully established and sustained by pure RF heating and current drive. Several feedback control schemes have been developed for a sustained detachment with good core confinement. This includes control of the total radiation power, target electron temperature, and particle flux measured using divertor Langmuir probes or a combination of the control of target electron temperature and AXUV radiation near the X point. The detachment feedback control schemes have been integrated with small-ELM regimes and high β p scenario via neon seeding, enabling a core and edge compatible integrated high-beta scenario applicable to long-pulse operations. ELM suppression has been achieved using various methods, including resonant magnetic perturbations and impurity seeding. Full suppression of ELMs by using n=4 RMPs has been demonstrated for ITER for the first time in low input torque plasmas in EAST. Finally, EAST has been operated with helium to support the ITER research requirements for the first time. For a long-pulse, high bootstrap current fraction operation, a new lower tungsten divertor with active water-cooling has been installed, along with improvements in the heating and current drive capability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

In situ multi-tier auto-ignition detection applied to dual-fuel combustion simulations

Here we use an anomaly detection methodology that is centered on analyzing fourth-order joint moments (co-kurtosis), particularly focusing on its application in auto-ignition of combustion problems with large numbers of species. Unsupervised anomaly detection is challenging to generalize across problem types and domains. A recent technique, centered on analyzing information in the fourth-order joint moment co-kurtosis, has shown promise, especially for high-dimensional scientific data. In this work we present developments to the co-kurtosis based anomaly detection method needed to make it effective and scalable for large-scale distributed scientific data, such as those generated by massively parallel simulations. An in situ co-kurtosis algorithm is employed as the anomaly detection method for identifying ignition kernels in simulations of turbulent combustion. Here, we extend an existing methodology which identifies regions of the domain where anomalies are present, and add another tier of anomaly detection where the individual samples contributing to the anomaly are identified. We apply this algorithm on-the-fly to a variety of turbulent reacting flow problems and compare it to the widely used (but significantly more expensive) chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA). We demonstrate the ability of the method to detect and identify the onset of low and high temperature ignition which can be used for computational steering, as chemical and combustion anomalies occur intermittently at spatio-temporal locations unknown a priori. Finally, we apply our lightweight in situ algorithm to an exascale high-fidelity simulation with a total of 2.4 Trillion degrees of freedom, performed using an adaptive mesh refinement solver. Furthermore, through a scalability analysis, we show that the relative computational cost of this in-situ anomaly detection algorithm compared to an iteration of the reacting flow solver is negligible.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗

Evaluation of methods for characterizing the fine particulate matter emissions from aircraft and other diffusion flame combustion aerosol sources

The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency in collaboration with the U. S. Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex conducted the VAriable Response In Aircraft nvPM Testing (VARIAnT) 3 and 4 test campaigns to compare nvPM emissions measurements from a variety of diffusion flame combustion aerosol sources (DFCASs), including a Cummins diesel engine, a diesel powered generator, two gas turbine start carts, a J85-GE-5 turbojet engine burning multiple fuels, and a Mini-CAST soot generator. The VARIAnT research program has conducted four test campaigns to date with the VARIAnT 3 and 4 test campaigns focusing on BC mass instrument performance, use of gas turbine engine sources for BC mass instrument calibration, and the characterization of the aerosols produced from the combustion sources. Results from both campaigns revealed agreement of about 20% between the AVL Micro-Soot Sensor, the Cavity Attenuated Phase Shift (CAPS PMSSA) monitor and the thermal-optical reference method for elemental carbon (EC), independent of the calibration source used. For the Artium LII-300, the measured mass concentrations in VARIAnT3 fall within 18% and in VARIAnT4 fall within 32% of the reference EC mass concentration when calibrated on a combustor rig in VARIAnT3 and on a LGT-60 start cart in VARIAnT4, respectively. It was also found that the three mass instrument types (MSS, CAPS PMSSA, and LII-300) can exhibit different BC to reference EC ratios depending on the emission source that appear to correlate to particle geometric mean mobility diameter, morphology, or some other parameter associated with particle geometric mean diameter (GMD) with the LII-300 showing a slightly stronger apparent trend with GMD. Systematic differences in LII-300 measured mass concentrations have been reduced by calibrating with a turbine combustion source (combustor or turbine engine). With respect to the particle size measurements made, the sizing instruments (TSI SMPS, TSI EEPS, and Cambustion DMS 500) were found to be in general agreement in terms of size distributions and concentrations with some exceptions. Teflon filter measurements of the total aerosol mass produced by the various DFCASs differed from the reference EC, BC, and integrated particle sized distribution measured aerosol masses. The Teflon filter measured mass was 30 to 40% greater than the reference EC and 50 to 60% greater than the BC mass for the J85 in both test campaigns. The measurements of particle size distributions and single particle analysis by miniSPLAT indicated the presence of large particles (>100 nm) having more compact morphologies, higher effective density, and a composition dominated by OC and ash. This increased large particle fraction is also associated with higher values of single scattering albedo measured by the CAPS PMSSA instrument and higher OC/EC measurements. These measurements indicate gas turbine engine emissions can be a more heterogeneous mix of particle types beyond the original E31 assumption that it is mainly composed of black carbon.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Thermostat Control for Load Shedding in Large Offices

This documentation focuses on a single End-Use Savings Shape measure - thermostat control for load shedding. The thermostat control for load shedding measure applies heating and cooling temperature setpoint offsets for reducing the heating and cooling load during peak window. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the peak window, and then adjusts the thermostat cooling and/or heating setpoints by an offset value from original schedules during the peak window to reduce the HVAC or whole building daily peak load. The measure is flexible and allows users to adjust the heating and cooling offset values respectively, but for this study, the adjustment for heating and cooling setpoints are set to -2 degrees Celsius and +2 degrees Celsius by default. The measure provides options of adding rebound control period (default 2 hours) after peak windows for the setpoints to be ramped back to default values, to prevent the system from generating higher peak demand with step changes of setpoints in post-peak periods . This measure is applicable t o large offices equipped with electric HVAC system (either electric cooling only or both electric heating and cooling), which account for approximately 8.72% of the ComStock floor area. The thermostat control for load shedding measure demonstrates 2-5% daily peak demand reduction and 0.068% total site energy savings (3 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Valuing EV Managed Charging for Bulk Power Systems

When and where electric vehicle (EV) charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread EV adoption, especially with high shares of wind and solar generation. This study extends previous works by leveraging detailed simulation models for EV adoption, EV use, EV charging, and bulk power system operations, and by linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This technical potential study focuses on how the value of EV managed charging (EVMC) changes depending on charging flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and managed charging participation rate. We show that naively aggregating EV charging flexibility from individual vehicles into megawatt-scale resources grossly overestimates the flexibility of the fleet, because such aggregate models can unrealistically pair, e.g., one already-fully-charged vehicle's ability to increase load with another already-charging vehicle's ability to accept more charge, effectively requesting a charging rate that is infeasible for the latter vehicle. We find per-vehicle bulk system value is highest at low participation rates for all dispatch mechanisms. Factoring in production cost savings, avoided firm capacity savings, and combustion-related power sector emissions savings, we estimate the value of EVMC at low participation rates (5%) to be $33/vehicle-year to $69/vehicle-yr for within-session charging flexibility and $40/vehicle-yr to $120/vehicle-yr for within-week charging flexibility in an envisioned 2038 New England power system and monetary value reported in 2016 U.S. dollars. At 100% participation, per-vehicle value declines to $25/vehicle-yr to $31/vehicle-yr for within-session charging flexibility and to $29/vehicle-yr to $36/vehicle-yr for within-week charging flexibility; however, 100% participation yields the highest total system savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Meteorological and Soil Data from Ecohydrology Sensor Towers at Pump House and Snodgrass Mountain in East River Watershed, Colorado, 2019-2025

This data package includes hourly meteorological and soil sensor data at eight ecohydrology monitoring sites in East River Watershed, Colorado as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) research led by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). Four field sites were located on the hillslope of East River (ER) near Pump House (PH) at Mount Crested Butte (ER-PHS1 to 4), and the other four are in the Snodgrass Mountain (SG) area (SG-EHS5 to 8). In terms of vegetation cover, three sites are in montane grasslands (ER-PHS1, ER-PHS2, and SG-EHS5), three are below evergreen conifer canopy (ER-PHS3, SG-EHS6, and SG-EHS7), and two are below deciduous aspen canopy (ER-PHS4 and SG-EHS8). The monitoring period began in October 2019 at the East River sites, in October 2020 at SG-EHS5 and SG-EHS6, and in October 2021 at SG-EHS7 and SG-EHS8. In September 2024, all four East River sites were fully retired. The four Snodgrass Mountain sites remain active. Each site is equipped with a comprehensive suite of meteorological sensors on a tripod and soil sensors that measure weather, energy fluxes, and soil variables. This data package includes measurements from ten different types of sensors and up to thirteen individual sensors per site, including (1) a weather station (measurement height ranges from 2.8~3.8 meters (m) above ground), (2) a quantum sensor for photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) (2.4~3.3m), (3) a net radiometer (1.7~2.1m), (4) an infrared radiometer (1.6~2.2m), (5) a sonic distance sensor (1.5~1.9m), (6) a soil carbon dioxide (CO2) flux chamber (0m), (7) a soil heat flux plate (-0.05m below ground), (8) a soil oxygen sensor (-0.3m), (9) a soil water potential sensor (-0.3m), and (10) soil water content sensors at 3~4 depths (-1.15 ~ -0.1m). A total of twenty-three variables is reported in this data package, including (1) atmospheric variables: air temperature (TA), atmospheric pressure (PA), vapor pressure (VP), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), (2) precipitation variables: rain precipitation (P) and snow depth (D_SNOW), (3) energy fluxes variables: four-component net radiation (NETRAD) (shortwave/longwave incoming/outgoing radiation, SW_IN, SW_OUT, LW_IN, LW_OUT), photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), and soil heat flux (G), (4) soil variables: soil water content (SWC), soil water potential (SWP), soil temperature (TS), soil bulk electrical conductivity (COND_SOIL), and soil gaseous oxygen concentration (O2_SOIL), (5) wind variables: two-dimensional wind speed (WS), gust speed (WS_MAX), and wind direction (WD), and (6) surface variables: surface infrared temperature (T_CANOPY) and soil CO2 flux (CO2_SOIL). Please see the Methods section for data processing and QA/QC steps taken to generate the hourly datasets. The following files are included in this data package (notes on version: v{x}-{y}, where x is the metadata version, and y is the data version, when applicable): (1) “metadata_site_v{x}-{y}.csv” - a site metadata file that summarizes location information of all sites, including site ID, description, coordinates, timeframe, elevation, and vegetation cover, (2) “metadata_instrument_v{x}-{y}.csv” - an instrument metadata file that summarizes sensor information of all sites, including sensor manufacturer and model, measurement height, and sampling and averaging interval of all variables, (3) "data_{SITE_ID}_v{x}-{y}.csv" - eight data files that contain hourly data of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, (4) “/figure/data_{SITE_ID}_v{x}-{y}.png" - eight figures that help visualize data of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, (5) “/photo/*” - photos of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, and (6) four file level metadata (flmd.csv) and data dictionary (*_dd.csv) files that summarize file, header, column, and variable information of all files. Notes: (1) Measurement height: Each variable name is followed by conventional positional qualifiers “H_V_R”, where H indicates the relative horizontal positions of that specific variable, V the vertical positions, and R the replicates. In this data package, only the vertical qualifier V varies, and V increases from the highest vertical position (V=1) to the lowest. Variables with the same qualifier are not necessarily measured by the same sensor, and the same variable with the same qualifier across different sites are not necessarily measured at the same height. Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the sensor information and measurement heights, and whether a variable is measured below the canopy. (2) Variable availability: Snow depth is not available at ER-PHS3 and SG-EHS7. SWC, soil temperature, and soil bulk EC at the deepest depth (<-1m) are not available at SG-EHS6 and SG-EHS7. The missing value code for numeric variables is -9999, except for SWP. For SWP, the missing value code is +9999, because SWP values are negative. (3) Sampling frequency: Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the increase of sampling frequency of some variables from 30-min to 1-min at ER-PHS1 to 4 in July 2020. (4) Sensors: While the methods of each sensor are not detailed, all sensors are commercially available, and their methods can be found in their manuals. Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the sensor manufacturer and model information. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SCEC/USGS Community Stress-Drop Validation Study: How Spectral Fitting Approaches Influence Measured Source Parameters

Spectral source parameters used to estimate an earthquake’s stress drop (⁠Δσ⁠) can vary significantly across measurement approaches. The Statewide California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey Community Stress‐Drop Validation Study was initiated to compare source parameter estimates, focusing initially on a dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. As part of that validation effort, here we focus on one potential source of uncertainty: whether spectral fitting approaches alone, applied to a common set of spectra from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence result in different source parameter estimates. By using a common set of benchmark spectra analyzed across a consistent frequency band of 1–40 Hz, we eliminate many sources of variability. A subgroup of validation study participants volunteered to estimate the low‐frequency displacement (⁠Ω 0 ⁠) and corner frequency (⁠ƒ c ⁠) by fitting a smooth function to benchmark displacement spectra. Participants used linear‐ or log‐sampled spectra, assumed a Brune or Boatwright spectral model, and applied different misfit criteria. We compare 17 approaches used to estimate ⁠Ω 0 ⁠, ƒ c ⁠, and Δσ for 54 earthquake spectra. Our results reveal that 35% of events have Δσ estimates within a factor of two, whereas others exhibit variations exceeding an order of magnitude. The variability in and can largely be attributed to whether a spectrum is consistent with the smooth function of an idealized simple crack model. The trade‐off between Ω 0 and ƒ c may be more pronounced when using linearly sampled spectra, as higher frequency spectral bumps control the fits. As expected, methods that assumed a Boatwright model tended to have lower Ω 0 and somewhat higher ƒ c compared to those assuming a Brune model, although resulting Δσ estimates are similar. Finally, when compared to the overall validation study results, the fitting approach alone may account for between 5% and 90% (25% on average) of the total variability in spectral Δσ⁠.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗