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At least 325 records · Page 18

Defending Weapons Inspections from the Effects of Disinformation

The intentional spread of disinformation is not a new challenge for the scientific world. We have seen it perpetuate the idea of a flat earth, convince communities that vaccines are more dangerous than helpful, and even suggest a connection between the “5G” communication infrastructure and COVID-19. Nor is disinformation a new phenomenon in the weapons inspection arena. Weapons inspectors themselves are often forced to sift through alternative narratives of events and inconsistent reporting, and they regularly see their credibility and conclusions questioned in the face of government politics or public biases. But certain recent disinformation campaigns have become so overwhelmingly comprehensive and effective that they constitute a new kind of threat. By preventing accountability for clear violations of international law, these campaigns have created a challenge to the survival of arms control treaties themselves. If weapons inspectors cannot regain the trust of the international community in the face of this challenge, it will be increasingly difficult to ensure compliance with arms control and disarmament treaties going forward. In this essay, I will briefly discuss one of the most comprehensive disinformation efforts of the past decade: the disinformation campaign used to prevent accountability for Syria's repeated use of chemical weapons. After this discussion, I will propose one possible approach to help protect the credibility of disarmament experts and weapons inspectors in the face of pervasive disinformation. This approach will require a concerted effort to connect and support compliance experts and to understand and explain their expertise across cultural, political, national, economic, and religious divides.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Global stochastic optimization of stellarator coil configurations

In the construction of a stellarator, the manufacturing and assembling of the coil system is a dominant cost. These coils need to satisfy strict engineering tolerances, and if those are not met the project could be cancelled as in the case of the National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) project. Therefore, our goal is to find coil configurations that increase construction tolerances without compromising the performance of the magnetic field. In this paper, we develop a gradient-based stochastic optimization model which seeks robust stellarator coil configurations in high dimensions. In particular, we design a two-step method: first, we perform an approximate global search by a sample efficient trust-region Bayesian optimization; second, we refine the minima found in step one with a stochastic local optimizer. To this end, we introduce two stochastic local optimizers: BFGS applied to the sample average approximation; and Adam, equipped with a control variate for variance reduction. Numerical simulations performed on a W7-X-like coil configuration demonstrate that our global optimization approach finds a variety of promising local solutions at less than 0.1% of the cost of previous work, which considered solely local stochastic optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The DESC stellarator code suite Part 3: Quasi-symmetry optimization

The DESC stellarator optimization code takes advantage of advanced numerical methods to search the full parameter space much faster than conventional tools. Only a single equilibrium solution is needed at each optimization step thanks to automatic differentiation, which efficiently provides exact derivative information. A Gauss–Newton trust-region optimization method uses second-order derivative information to take large steps in parameter space and converges rapidly. With just-in-time compilation and GPU portability, high-dimensional stellarator optimization runs take orders of magnitude less computation time with DESC compared to other approaches. This paper presents the theory of the DESC fixed-boundary local optimization algorithm along with demonstrations of how to easily implement it in the code. Example quasi-symmetry optimizations are shown and compared to results from conventional tools. Three different forms of quasi-symmetry objectives are available in DESC, and their relative advantages are discussed in detail. In the examples presented, the triple product formulation yields the best optimization results in terms of minimized computation time and particle transport. This paper concludes with an explanation of how the modular code suite can be extended to accommodate other types of optimization problems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Prospects of Nanoscience with Nanocrystals: 2025 Edition

Abstract Nanocrystals (NCs) of various compositions have made important contributions to science and technology, with their impact recognized by the 2023 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the discovery and synthesis of semiconductor quantum dots (QDs). Over four decades of research into NCs has led to numerous advancements in diverse fields, such as optoelectronics, catalysis, energy, medicine, and recently, quantum information and computing. The last 10 years since the predecessor perspective “Prospect of Nanoscience with Nanocrystals” was published in ACS Nano have seen NC research continuously evolve, yielding critical advances in fundamental understanding and practical applications. Mechanistic insights into NC formation have translated into precision control over NC size, shape, and composition. Emerging synthesis techniques have broadened the landscape of compounds obtainable in colloidal NC form. Sophistication in surface chemistry, jointly bolstered by theoretical models and experimental findings, has facilitated refined control over NC properties and represents a trusted gateway to enhanced NC stability and processability. The assembly of NCs into superlattices, along with two-dimensional (2D) photolithography and three-dimensional (3D) printing, has expanded their utility in creating materials with tailored properties. Applications of NCs are also flourishing, consolidating progress in fields targeted early on, such as optoelectronics and catalysis, and extending into areas ranging from quantum technology to phase-change memories. In this perspective, we review the extensive progress in research on NCs over the past decade and highlight key areas where future research may bring further breakthroughs.

Chemistry↗

A GeoHealth Call to Action: Moving Beyond Identifying Environmental Injustices to Co-Creating Solutions

As marginalized communities continue to bear disproportionate impacts from environmental hazards, we urgently call for researchers and institutions to elevate the principles of Environmental Justice. The American Geophysical Union (AGU) GeoHealth section supports members' engagement in health-related community-engaged and community-led transdisciplinary research. We highlight intersectional research that provides examples and actions for both individuals and organizations on community science and trust building, removing barriers created by scientific agency priorities and career expectations, and opportunities in education and policy. Justice does not start or end at one meeting; this is ongoing work that is active, evolving, and an ethical responsibility of AGU's membership.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

WUS256: An Adjoint Waveform Tomography Model of the Crust and Upper Mantle of the Western United States for Improved Waveform Simulations

Abstract We report a new model (WUS256) of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds of the crust and upper mantle of the western United States (WUS) obtained from adjoint waveform tomography for the purpose of improving synthetic waveform fits to observed data. WUS256 is based on inversion of over 94,000 waveforms from 72 earthquakes recorded by nearly 3,400 stations. We started with the SPiRaL global model (Simmons et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab277 ) and waveforms in the period band of 50–120 s. We followed a conservative multiscale inversion approach with eight stages and 256 total inversion iterations which enabled monotonic misfit reduction to 20‐s minimum‐period waves. WUS256 relied on time‐frequency (TF) phase misfits and a trust region limited memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (L‐BFGS) optimization. Hessian‐vector products were used to qualitatively assess model resolution. Results indicate that WUS256 has good coverage of the continental regions to depths of about 150 km and is able to resolve features on lateral scales of about 200 km. We quantify waveform fits by the reduction in TF and normalized amplitude difference misfits between WUS256 and the SPiRaL starting model. WUS256 significantly improves waveform fits with misfit reduction 64% for both inversion and validation data sets compared to the SPiRaL starting model and shows even better fits compared to other models. Waveform fits illustrate that WUS256 reproduces body‐waves, fundamental mode surface waves as well as late arriving dispersed and/or scattered short period surface waves. The improvement in waveform fit indicates that WUS256 can be used to reproduce path effects on regional complete waveforms and moment tensor inversions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning‐Based Earth System Models

Abstract Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern physics‐based models. Given the importance of deepening our understanding and improving predictions of the Earth system on all time scales, efforts are now underway to develop Earth‐system models (ESMs) capable of representing all components of the coupled Earth system (or their aggregated behavior) and their response to external changes over long timescales. Building trust in ESMs is a much more difficult problem than for weather forecast models, not least because the model must represent the alternate (e.g., future or paleoclimatic) coupled states of the system for which there are no direct observations. Given that the physical principles that enable predictions about the response of the Earth system are often not explicitly coded in these ML‐based models, demonstrating the credibility of ML‐based ESMs thus requires us to build evidence of their consistency with the physical system. To this end, this paper puts forward five recommendations to enhance comprehensive, standardized, and independent evaluation of ML‐based ESMs to strengthen their credibility and promote their wider use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Mean State Cloud Properties in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Accurately simulating clouds remains a key challenge in global climate models, primarily because cloud formation involves sub-grid processes that are parameterized and crudely represented in models. This study examines the performance of DOE's Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) in simulating cloud properties and their spatio-temporal distribution by comparing against satellite observations. Two horizontal resolutions of SCREAM (3 and 12 km) are examined, and both depict a realistic spatial structure of mean-state cloud cover but underestimate its global mean magnitude. SCREAM 3 km reasonably reproduces the distribution of mean-state cloud properties across various cloud optical thickness and cloud-top pressure regimes, with performance comparable to CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble and marginally outperforming SCREAM 12 km. Still, SCREAM 3 km tends to underpredict low clouds and optically thin clouds, highlighting the need for continued improvement in representing unresolved processes. This study provides a basis for confidence in the representation of clouds in SCREAM, as simulating mean-state clouds is a necessary prerequisite for trusting its cloud responses to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases.

Geosciences↗

Reimagining How Flood Warnings Can Inform Decision‐Making and Community Actions

Society faces increasingly severe flood hazards, intensifying demand for flood early warning systems (FEWS) that deliver accurate and actionable information. However, most existing FEWS remain prediction‐centric, treating decision‐making as a downstream consumer of hazard forecasts while offering limited support for uncertainty interpretation, risk communication, and real‐world response. This Perspective presents a vision and blueprint for a novel inland FEWS‐decision‐making (FEWS‐DM) framework that repositions decision‐making as an equal partner in the forecasting process—not a passive recipient of its outputs. The framework is built on three tightly coupled, co‐evolving thrusts: Physical Science (T1), which advances flood prediction with quantified uncertainty informed by decision relevance; Human Science (T2), which incorporates psychology, behavior, and cultural and institutional context; and Decision Science (T3), which unifies physical predictions and human factors through principled, utility‐based decision support with end‐to‐end uncertainty management. Rather than treating T1 as a solved problem, FEWS‐DM recognizes that forecast development itself must be shaped by decision needs through continuous bidirectional feedback. We identify key scientific, behavioral, and operational challenges limiting such integration and discuss the enabling role of AI, while emphasizing human‐centered design and community feedback as essential for building trust and improving flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On-the-fly closed-loop materials discovery via Bayesian active learning

Active learning—the field of machine learning (ML) dedicated to optimal experiment design—has played a part in science as far back as the 18th century when Laplace used it to guide his discovery of celestial mechanics. In this work, we focus a closed-loop, active learning-driven autonomous system on another major challenge, the discovery of advanced materials against the exceedingly complex synthesis-processes-structure-property landscape. We demonstrate an autonomous materials discovery methodology for functional inorganic compounds which allow scientists to fail smarter, learn faster, and spend less resources in their studies, while simultaneously improving trust in scientific results and machine learning tools. This robot science enables science-over-the-network, reducing the economic impact of scientists being physically separated from their labs. The real-time closed-loop, autonomous system for materials exploration and optimization (CAMEO) is implemented at the synchrotron beamline to accelerate the interconnected tasks of phase mapping and property optimization, with each cycle taking seconds to minutes. We also demonstrate an embodiment of human-machine interaction, where human-in-the-loop is called to play a contributing role within each cycle. This work has resulted in the discovery of a novel epitaxial nanocomposite phase-change memory material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Resolving root causes of experiment discrepancies guided by machine learning

Abstract Scientists rely on accurate experimental data to explain nature and then harness this knowledge for applications addressing human needs. However, discrepancies between experiments of the same observable can impede scientific progress if one does not understand the underlying causes. Here, we developed a process that unravels data discrepancies by first using Bayesian machine learning to relate discrepancies to few of many, potentially biasing metadata features that encode experiment procedures. This machine learning output guides human experts to study discrepancy causes by simulating suspicious aspects of historical experiments or designing modern ones to address open questions. The study findings then lead to rejecting or correcting historical data on firm scientific bases. This process is demonstrated for the energy spectrum of neutrons emitted promptly (<1 ns) after fission of 252 Cf, a trusted nuclear physics Standard. It reduces the spread in experimental 252 Cf spectra by up to a factor of 6.

Neudecker, D. (ORCID:0000000339200627)↗

Uncertainty quantification for neural network potential foundation models

Abstract For neural network potentials (NNPs) to gain widespread use, researchers must be able to trust model outputs. However, the blackbox nature of neural networks and their inherent stochasticity are often deterrents, especially for foundation models trained over broad swaths of chemical space. Uncertainty information provided at the time of prediction can help reduce aversion to NNPs. In this work, we detail two uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. Readout ensembling, by finetuning the readout layers of an ensemble of foundation models, provides information about model uncertainty, while quantile regression, by replacing point predictions with distributional predictions, provides information about uncertainty within the underlying training data. We demonstrate our approach with the MACE-MP-0 model, applying UQ to the foundation model and a series of finetuned models. The uncertainties produced by the readout ensemble and quantile methods are demonstrated to be distinct measures by which the quality of the NNP output can be judged.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A dataset for understanding self-reported patterns influencing residential energy decisions

Household occupant behavior and decision-making dynamics substantially impact technology uptake and residential building energy performance. Although significant research underscores the importance of social science in energy studies, few public data with representative samples on household energy decision-making patterns are available. The dataset (UPGRADE-E: Understanding Patterns Guiding Residential Adoption and Decisions about Energy Efficiency) presents 9,919 responses from U.S. residents of single-family and small multifamily homes. Derived from a national-scale internet survey, the dataset contains 391 variables: demographics, building characteristics, home modifications, willingness to adopt new technologies, motivations for making changes, barriers, program participation, trusted information sources, and energy scenarios. Responses were validated via internal consistency checks and comparison with other U.S. national scale datasets. UPGRADE-E advances knowledge of household energy related decision-making, tying demographics, home modifications, and self-reported cognitive drivers together at a scale and breadth that has not been previously achieved. Policymakers and researchers at local, regional, and national levels may leverage this dataset to understand drivers influencing the adoption of key technologies in U.S. homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The field of human building interaction for convergent research and innovation for intelligent built environments

Human-Building Interaction (HBI) is a convergent field that represents the growing complexities of the dynamic interplay between human experience and intelligence within built environments. This paper provides core definitions, research dimensions, and an overall vision for the future of HBI as developed through consensus among 25 interdisciplinary experts in a series of facilitated workshops. Three primary areas contribute to and require attention in HBI research: humans (human experiences, performance, and well-being), buildings (building design and operations), and technologies (sensing, inference, and awareness). Three critical interdisciplinary research domains intersect these areas: control systems and decision making, trust and collaboration, and modeling and simulation. Finally, at the core, it is vital for HBI research to center on and support equity, privacy, and sustainability. Compelling research questions are posed for each primary area, research domain, and core principle. State-of-the-art methods used in HBI studies are discussed, and examples of original research are offered to illustrate opportunities for the advancement of HBI research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Explainable machine learning for incipient anomaly detection in compact molten salt heat exchanger with overlapping feature distributions

High-temperature molten salt-cooled reactors (MSCRs) are a promising next-generation nuclear technology option, offering efficient power conversion and inherent safety features. However, the reliability of these systems depends on the robust operation of heat exchangers (HXs), which are susceptible to failure due to temperature gradients and channel plugging caused by fluid freezing. Conventional monitoring methods, relying on inlet and outlet measurements, lack the spatial resolution needed to detect early-stage faults. We propose a novel design of a compact salt-to-salt matrix-type HX design consisting of interleaved arrays of parallel tubes, with integrated synthetic fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) to enable localized detection of incipient faults. To evaluate performance of this design, we generate high-fidelity synthetic data using heat transfer computational modeling to simulate channel plugging, and introduce sensor noise for realistic modeling of measurements. The dataset comprises of 97% normal operation and 3% anomaly cases, with each anomaly class representing 1% of the data. These early anomalies result in overlapping temperature profiles between normal and faulty channels, producing a non-separable dataset that challenges traditional classification techniques. We benchmark eight supervised machine learning (ML) models and demonstrate that XGBoost achieves the highest performance. To improve transparency, we develop an explainability framework combining Shapley values and partially ordered sets (POSETs) to quantify and structurally analyze feature importance. This approach identifies both dominant predictors and ambiguous feature relationships, enhancing trust and interpretability. Our results highlight the potential of combining DTS and explainable ML with intelligent feature selection to improve predictive maintenance and ensure operational resilience in advanced nuclear systems.

Prantikos, Konstantinos [Argonne National Laborato↗

Solving sparse finite element problems on neuromorphic hardware

The finite element method (FEM) is one of the most important and ubiquitous numerical methods for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) on computers for scientific and engineering discovery. Applying the FEM to larger and more detailed scientific models has driven advances in high-performance computing for decades. Here we demonstrate that scalable spiking neuromorphic hardware can directly implement the FEM by constructing a spiking neural network that solves the large, sparse, linear systems of equations at the core of the FEM. We show that for the Poisson equation, a fundamental PDE in science and engineering, our neural circuit achieves meaningful levels of numerical accuracy and close to ideal scaling on modern, inherently parallel and energy-efficient neuromorphic hardware, specifically Intel’s Loihi 2 neuromorphic platform. We illustrate extensions to irregular mesh geometries in both two and three dimensions as well as other PDEs such as linear elasticity. Our spiking neural network is constructed from a recurrent network model of the brain’s motor cortex and, in contrast to black-box deep artificial neural network-based methods for PDEs, directly translates the well-understood and trusted mathematics of the FEM to a natively spiking neuromorphic algorithm.

Applied mathematics↗