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Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models, this work produces national datasets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock.
This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra snow-vegetation-terrain interactions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The NGEE Arctic project developed a total of six Integrated Modeling (IM) modules informed by observations and experiments. New ELM capability represented by this data product (IM3) falls into three categories: 1) Downscaling from gridcell to topographic unit level when working through the existing coupler bypass code. 2) Four new parameters (taper, stocking, bendresist, and vegshape) have been added to ELM to allow for flexible definition of snow-vegetation interactions. 3) Vegshape and bendresist parameters are used to calculate the fraction of leaf area and/or stem area buried by snow for a given snow depth. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the snow-vegetation-terrain interactions added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
BL Lac objects, extracted from the Einstein Extended Medium Sensitivity Survey (EMSS), are examined. X-ray selection proved to be a powerful tool to find new BL Lacs, and allows the creation of complete, well defined and sizable samples. X-ray selected BL Lac objects (XBL) have in general more starlight in the optical spectra than radio selected BL Lacs. Redshifts for a significant fraction of objects in samples of XBL can be determined. It is thus possible to study the cosmological properties of BL Lac objects. Different models of luminosity functions of BL Lacs, including relativistic beaming, are considered and integrated over luminosity and redshift. The results are compared with the observed number-counts. The observed redshift distribution and the models' predictions are analyzed.
The transportation sector accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is under formidable pressure to decarbonize. With a growing number of countries making commitments to achieve carbon neutrality or “net-zero” emissions within the next few decades, it is imperative for transportation researchers and policymakers to understand the viable pathways towards achieving carbon neutrality for light-duty transport. This chapter discusses the transportation policies and GHG emissions of the three largest markets in the world—the U.S., China, and the European Union. The life cycle GHG emissions of various vehicle technologies are evaluated while highlighting the regional and temporal differences. We then use market penetration and fleet models, developed specifically for each market, to comprehensively assess the light-duty transport energy demand and GHG emissions under various scenarios. The modeling results show that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will increase in market share, but internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) will continue to dominate the passenger vehicle stock in the next 20 years under most scenarios. Improving ICEV efficiency can play a critical role in meeting GHG regulations in the near- and medium-term. BEVs, whose GHG emissions are highly dependent on the source of electricity generation, will play an essential role in the long-term as the electric grid becomes cleaner. In summary, transportation policies should be technology agnostic and consider emissions based on the whole life cycle. Moreover, a holistic approach to reducing transportation GHG emissions is key to achieving global environmental goals.
Abstract The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the electricity generation carbon intensity to close to zero along with electrification of about 67% or 84% of vehicle travel to meet decarbonization targets of 80% or 90%, respectively. Higher electricity generation carbon intensity and degraded EV fuel economy due to automation would require higher levels of fleet electrification and/or further constrain the total vehicle travel allowable. Transportation deep decarbonization not only depends on electricity decarbonization, but also has a total travel budget, representing a maximum total vehicle travel threshold that still enables meeting a midcentury climate target. This makes encouraging ride sharing, reducing total vehicle travel, and increasing fuel economy in both human-driven and future automated vehicles increasingly important to deep decarbonization.
Increased market intelligence and business model innovation is needed to build contractor confidence in high-performance building technologies in order to increase the speed and scale of adoption to meet the U.S. Department of Energy's building stock decarbonization goals. Although there have been important innovations in energy efficiency, affordability, and decarbonization of building technologies, consumers are not purchasing these technologies at the necessary speed and scale partially due to a gap in institutional understanding around barriers contractors face in providing and servicing these technologies. Small businesses in this market must mitigate risk around high-performance building technologies, limiting their opportunities in the market and impacting the rate of adoption. The Building Business Network (B-Biz) aims to provide high-performance building technology solutions to underserved customers by collaborating with local small businesses that provide and service high-performance building technologies in communities with the lowest rates of adoption. This research explores the current market, the importance of business models, and the opportunity to utilize small businesses to address market gaps in underserved communities.
Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, “normal” stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don’t meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.
Estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of agricultural fields has a range of important applications from development of sustainable management practices to monitoring carbon stocks. There are many estimation strategies with the potential for more reliable estimates of SOC stock and more efficient use of soil sampling and analysis resources, especially by leveraging readily available auxiliary information such as remote sensing. However, concrete guidance for strategy selection is lacking. This study narrows this gap with a comparison of strategies for estimating deep SOC stock (0–60 cm) in a prototypical field. Using high density SOC stock measurements and simulation, we built on past studies by 1) ex-ante evaluating a large number of strategy options, 2) using a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty of the comparison, and 3) considering multiple Bayesian models to assess sensitivity to this modeling choice. We found that, using readily available auxiliary information, both balanced and stratified sampling offer substantial improvements over simple random sampling. The auxiliary information most important for this improvement is a Sentinel-2 SOC index = blue / (green × red), followed by the topographic wetness index. We found that these results are robust to the choice of mapping method, but that there is uncertainty in the magnitude of improvement. Here, we recommend future studies implement this Bayesian approach for simulated ex-ante evaluation of SOC stock estimation strategies across more fields to investigate the generalizability of these findings.
The soil microbiome is central to the cycling of carbon and other nutrients and to the promotion of plant growth. Despite its importance, analysis of the soil microbiome is difficult due to its sheer complexity, with thousands of interacting species. Here, we reduced this complexity by developing model soil microbial consortia that are simpler and more amenable to experimental analysis but still represent important microbial functions of the native soil ecosystem. Samples were collected from an arid grassland soil and microbial communities (consisting mainly of bacterial species) were enriched on agar plates containing chitin as the main carbon source. Chitin was chosen because it is an abundant carbon and nitrogen polymer in soil that often requires the coordinated action of several microorganisms for complete metabolic degradation. Several soil consortia were derived that had tractable richness (30-50 OTUs) with diverse phyla representative of the native soil, including Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes, Proteobacteria and Verrucomicrobia. The resulting consortia can be stored as glycerol or lyophilized stocks at -80° C and revived while retaining community composition, greatly increasing their use as tools for the research community at large. One of the consortia that was particularly stable was chosen as a model soil consortium (MSC-1) for further analysis. MSC-1 species interactions were studied using both pairwise co-cultivation in liquid media and during growth in soil under several perturbations. Co-abundance analyses highlighted interspecies interactions and helped to define keystone species, including Mycobacterium, Rhodococcus, and Rhizobiales taxa. These experiments demonstrate the success of an approach based on naturally enriching a community of interacting species that can be stored, revived, and shared. The knowledge gained from querying these communities and their interactions will enable better understanding of the soil microbiome and the roles these interactions play in this environment.
Direct Heating Equipment (DHE) is a category of ductless space heating appliances that provide warm air directly to the space where they are installed. We investigate, from the perspective of the DHE supply chain in California, what types of DHE are marketed in the state, how they are sold and serviced, and whether any potential barriers to adoption of high-efficiency DHE exist. We find that the market for DHE in the state is almost exclusively a replacement market, with some additional repair and maintenance services. We also find that, even though manufacturers sell high-efficiency DHE models in California, most contractors report installing baseline models most of the time. Contractors say their customers do not see any value in high-efficiency units, and they (contractors) do not believe that high-efficiency DHE is worth the additional cost to their customers. In addition, the majority of contractors purchase DHE from distributors and, therefore, distributors are a key piece of the supply chain that can constrain DHE purchase choice. Distributors do not see a demand for high-efficiency DHE and, hence, do not keep stock of these units. They argue that, since the market is driven mostly by replacements and these replacements occur typically in an unplanned way, homeowners are unwilling to pay for any additional costs associated with a high-efficiency model. Rather, homeowners usually prefer to replace the failed unit with a new unit that can fit in the same location with no- or minimal additional replacement costs. Considering that most DHE purchases are made by contractors, on behalf of their customers, informing contractors (and homeowners) of the potential cost-effectiveness of efficient DHE could help mitigate some of the barriers to the adoption of high-efficiency DHE in the state. In addition, monetary incentives and more stringent building codes that apply to DHE replacements can contribute to increasing adoption of high-efficiency DHE in California. This will not only reduce energy costs, but also increase safety and comfort to DHE users.
To combat climate change, the United States joined 193 Parties in committing to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 2 degrees C or less, and decarbonizing transportation will be a key requirement for achieving this goal. School buses (SBs) are a common form of student transport in the U.S. with nearly all SBs today powered by fossil fuels (primarily diesel). As a result, SBs have historically been a concerning source of both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and local air pollutants with negative health impacts for students and others living nearby. Electric SBs (ESBs) are a promising emerging technology for decarbonizing student transport, however, ESB adoption in the U.S. remains at an early stage (approximate 1.1%) with many outstanding uncertainties. This study aims to elucidate several of these by taking inventory of the total SB stock within U.S. states and studying real-world SB operating profiles to infer potential battery range requirements, daily charging opportunities, and charging infrastructure requirements for ESBs. In addition, we observe the geographic trends of early-stage ESB adoption, which can be used to better understand early adopter patterns and train vehicle technology adoption models.
The centra of shark vertebrae consist of cartilage mineralized by a bioapatite similar to bone's carbonated hy-droxyapatite, and, without a repair mechanism analogous to remodeling in bone, these structures still survive millions of cycles of high-strain loading. The main structures of the centrum are an hourglass-shaped double cone and the intermedialia which supports the cones. Little is known about the nanostructure of shark centra, spe-cifically the relationship between bioapatite and cartilage fibers, and this study uses energy dispersive diffraction (EDD) with polychromatic synchrotron x-radiation to study the spatial organization of the mineral phase and its crystallographic texture. The unique energy-sensitive detector array at beamline 6-BM-B, the Advanced Photon Source, enables EDD to quantify the texture within each sampling volume with one exposure while constructing 3D maps via specimen translation across the sampling volume. Herein this study maps a centrum from two shark orders, a carcharhiniform and a lamniform, with different intermedialia structures. In the blue shark (Prionace glauca, Carcharhiniformes), the bioapatite's c-axes are oriented laterally within the centrum's cone walls but axially within the wide wedges of the intermedialia; the former is interpreted to resist lateral deformation, the latter to support axial loads. In the shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus, Lamniformes), there is some tendency for c-axis variation with position, but the situation is unclear because one dimension of the sampling volume is consid-erably larger than the thickness and spacing of the intermedialia's radially-oriented lamellae. Because elastic modulus in collagen plus bioapatite mineralized tissues varies significantly with both volume fraction of bio-apatite and crystallographic texture, the present 3D EDD-derived maps should inform future 3D numerical models of shark centra under applied load.
This slide presentation reviews a study designed to determine the feasibility of using a 9.5 deg head-up tilt bed rest model to simulate the effects of the 1/6 g load to the human body that exists on the lunar surface. The effect of different types of compression stockings, the pre-bed rest diet, and the use of a specific exercise program were reviewed for comfort, force verification and plasma volume shift
Computational modeling of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials, used for aerospace applications, provides numerous advantages in preliminary selection and design of a heatshield material and shape for atmospheric entry vehicles. However, to serve as a reliable tool for prediction of material thermal and ablative behavior, the modeling approach needs to be validated against real experimental and flight data, preferably at a range of applied conditions. The validation study is typically very complex as it requires reliable measured data not only for the material thermal response and surface recession, but also well characterized environmental conditions. The validation problem becomes even more complex when the material thermal response is dictated by multi-physics effects such as solid conduction, in-depth thermal decomposition, pyrolysis gas flow and chemical reactions. The multi-physics effects complicate not only the modeling effort, but also the experimental measurement for validation of various aspects of the highly coupled problem. In this study, an attempt is made to identify suitable experimental data that could serve as a source for validation of material thermal response modeling tools. To reduce the computational complexity, this study focuses only on non-charring ablators, where the material thermal response could be modeled with a single governing equation for solid conduction and the ablation is limited only to the surface of the material. With a well characterized and publicly available experimental data being sparse, the study is limited in presenting test cases for only three materials: camphor, graphite and FiberForm® in the sequence of increased modeling complexity. Graphite is a commonly used TPS material for aerospace applications, both for leading edges of high-speed vehicles and internal insulation of solid rocket motors. FiberForm® is a porous carbon pre-form used in preparation of the well known PICA material Tran et al. [1996]. Inclusion of camphor into the list is conditioned with the relative simplicity in modeling the material thermal and chemical response and the low-enthalpy flow environment. In addition, camphor has been used as a simple test material for study of flow transition behavior by Stock and Ginoux [1973] and assessment of a heatshield shape change at flight relevant conditions by Rotondi et al. [2022]. In this work, the identified experimental data was extracted from the public literature and test cases that yet have been published. As it was found from the review, not a single test case contains an exhaustive set of data that would validate every aspect of the material physics. However, in the data collected, various aspects of the material behavior can be still validated, such as surface and in-depth temperature, amount of recession and a shape change. The identified experimental data for each case is accompanied with a characterized flow environment and simulated boundary conditions predicted by a Data-Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) code Wright et al. [1998]. In addition, material thermal response numerical simulations in each test case are performed with Kentucky Aerothermodynamics and Thermal Response System (KATS-MR) Zibitsker et al. [2022] providing a comparative study and a sanity check for the proposed validation data. Sample results from the performed numerical study are shown below. Figure 1 shows distribution of surface heat flux and pressure values on a hemi-cylinder model made of FiberForm® and tested in HyMETS arc-jet facility. The results are shown for the high pressure condition among the two tests. Flow simulation was performed with DPLR code on a quarter of original geometry. In the figure, the quarter shape was mirrored across zx and xy planes to show the complete distribution. Figure 2 shows the material response results for the high pressure case (7500 Pa), simulated with KATS-MR and a comparison to the experimental data for the surface temperature and shape shape. The simulation was performed on a 2-D slice, extracted in the xy plane at the middle of the sample. Figure 3 shows the material response simulation for the low pressure case (3500 Pa) and a comparison to the experimental data for surface temperature and shape change.
The residential and commercial building stock in the United States is responsible for a significant percentage of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification of end-uses, as well as decarbonizing the electrical grid through renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, constitutes the pathway to zero-emission buildings. Forecasting day-ahead building energy consumption is an integral part of this solution. Currently, specialized forecasting models are hand-made for each individual building, which is time-consuming, expensive, and leads to duplicated efforts. BuildingsBench is a Python software framework for training and comparing generalized machine learning models for universal building load forecasting. This challenge tasks a single foundational model to generalize its forecasts for a wide variety of buildings, across geographic regions, building types, weather patterns, and more. This software provide code for pre-training such models and subsequently evaluating their performance on a suite of hundreds of diverse real and synthetic buildings. BuildingsBench is a platform for: - Large-scale pretraining with the synthetic Buildings-900K dataset for short-term load forecasting (STLF). Buildings-900K is statistically representative of the entire U.S. building stock and is extracted from the NREL End-Use Load Profiles database. - Benchmarking on two tasks evaluating generalization: zero-shot STLF and transfer learning for STLF. We provide an index-based PyTorch Dataset for large-scale pretraining, easy data loading for multiple real building energy consumption datasets as PyTorch Tensors or Pandas DataFrames, simple (persistence) to advanced (transformer) baselines, metrics management, and more.
Mangroves are ecologically and economically important forested wetlands with the highest carbon (C) density of all terrestrial ecosystems. Because of their exceptionally large C stocks and importance as a coastal buffer, their protection and restoration has been proposed as an effective mitigation strategy for climate change. The inclusion of mangroves in mitigation strategies requires the quantification of C stocks (both above and belowground) and changes to accurately calculate emissions and sequestration. A growing number of countries are becoming interested in using mitigation initiatives, such as REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation), in these unique coastal forests. However, it is not yet clear how methods to measure C traditionally used for other ecosystems can be modified to estimate biomass in mangroves with the precision and accuracy needed for these initiatives. Airborne Lidar (ALS) data has often been proposed as the most accurate way for larger scale assessments but the application of ALS for coastal wetlands is scarce, primarily due to a lack of contemporaneous ALS and field measurements. Here, we evaluated the variability in field and Lidar-based estimates of aboveground biomass (AGB) through the combination of different local and regional allometric models and standardized height metrics that are comparable across spatial resolutions and sensor types, the end result being a simplified approach for accurately estimating mangrove AGB at large scales and determining the uncertainty by combining multiple allometric models.We then quantified wall-to-wall AGB stocks of a tall mangrove forest in the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique. Our results indicate that the Lidar H100 height metric correlates well with AGB estimates, with R(exp 2) between 0.80 and 0.88 and RMSE of 33% or less. When comparing Lidar H100 AGB derived from three allometric models, mean AGB values range from 192 Mg ha(exp −1) up to 252 Mg ha(exp −1).We suggest the best model to predict AGB was based on the East Africa specific allometry and a power-based regression that used Lidar H100 as the height input with an R(exp 2) of 0.85 and an RMSE of 122 Mg ha(exp −1) or 33%. The total AGB of the Lidar inventoried mangrove area (6654 ha) was 1 350 902 Mg with a mean AGB of 203 Mg ha(exp −1) +/-166 Mg ha(exp −1). Because the allometry suggested here was developed using standardized height metrics, it is recommended that the models can generate AGB estimates using other remote sensing instruments that are more readily accessible over other mangrove ecosystems on a large scale, and as part of future carbon monitoring efforts in mangroves.
Abstract. This work considers the characteristics and drivers of the loads experienced by wind turbine main bearings. Simplified load response models of two different hub and main-bearing configurations are presented, representative of both inverting direct-drive and four-point-mounted geared drivetrains. The influences of deterministic wind field characteristics, such as wind speed, shear, yaw offset, and veer, on the bearing load patterns are then investigated for similarity scaled 5, 7.5, and 10 MW reference wind turbine models. Main-bearing load response in cases of deterministic gusts and extreme changes in wind direction are also considered for the 5 MW model. Perhaps surprisingly, veer is identified as an important driver of main-bearing load fluctuations. Upscaling results indicate that similar behaviour holds as turbines become larger, but with mean loads and load fluctuation levels increasing at least cubically with the turbine rotor radius. Strong links between turbine control and main-bearing load response are also observed.
Grassland soils store a substantial proportion of the global soil carbon (C) stock. The transformation of C in grassland soils with respect to chemical composition and persistence strongly regulate the predicted terrestrial-atmosphere C flux in global C biogeochemical cycling models. In addition, increasing atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition alters C chemistry in grassland soils. However, there remains controversy about the importance of mineralogical versus biochemical preservation of soil C, as well as uncertainty regarding how grassland soil C chemistry responds to elevated N. This study used grassland soils with diverse soil organic matter (SOM) chemistries in an 8-month aerobic incubation experiment to evaluate whether the chemical composition of SOM converged across sites over time, and how SOM persistence responded to the N addition. This study demonstrates that over the course of incubation, the richness of labile compounds decreased in soils with less ferrihydrite content, whereas labile compounds were more persistent in ferrihydrite rich soils. In contrast, we found that the richness of more complex compounds increased over the incubation in most sites, independent of soil mineralogy. Moreover, we demonstrate the extent to which the diverse chemical composition of SOM converged among sites in response to microbial decomposition. N fertilization decreased soil respiration and inhibited the convergence of molecular composition across ecosystems by altering N demand for microbial metabolism and chemical interactions between minerals and organic molecules. This study provides original evidence that the decomposition and metabolism of labile organic molecules were largely regulated by soil mineralogy (physicochemical preservation), while the metabolism of more complex organic molecules was controlled by substrate complexity (biochemical preservation) independent to mineral-organic interactions. This study advanced our understanding of the dynamic biogeochemical cycling of C by unveiling that N addition dampened C respiration and diminished the convergence of SOM chemistry across diverse grassland ecosystems.