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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Early Giant-planet Instability in Terrestrial Planet Formation

The terrestrial planets are believed to have formed by violent collisions of tens of lunar- to Mars-size protoplanets at time t < 200 Myr after the protoplanetary gas disk dispersal (t {sub 0}). The solar system giant planets rapidly formed during the protoplanetary disk stage and, after t {sub 0}, radially migrated by interacting with outer disk planetesimals. An early (t < 100 Myr) dynamical instability is thought to have occurred with Jupiter having gravitational encounters with a planetary-size body, jumping inward by ∼0.2–0.5 au, and landing on its current, mildly eccentric orbit. Here we investigate how the giant-planet instability affected the formation of the terrestrial planets. We study several instability cases that were previously shown to match many solar system constraints. We find that resonances with giant planets help to remove solids available for accretion near ∼1.5 au, thus stalling the growth of Mars. It does not matter, however, whether the giant planets are placed on their current orbits at t {sub 0} or whether they realistically evolve in one of our instability models; the results are practically the same. The tight orbital spacing of Venus and Earth is difficult to reproduce in our simulations, including cases where bodies grow from a narrow annulus at 0.7–1 au, because protoplanets tend to spread radially during accretion. The best results are obtained in the narrow-annulus model when protoplanets emerging from the dispersing gas nebula are assumed to have (at least) the mass of Mars. This suggests efficient accretion of the terrestrial protoplanets during the first ∼10 Myr of the solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An energy model of droplet impingement on an inclined wall under isothermal and non-isothermal environments

The observation of spray-wall interaction is of great importance to understand the dynamics that occur during fuel impingement onto the chamber wall or piston surfaces in internal combustion engines. It is found that the maximum spreading length of an impinged droplet can provide a quantitative estimation of heat transfer and energy transformation for spray-wall interaction. Furthermore, it influences the air-fuel mixing and hydrocarbon and particle emissions at combusting conditions. In this paper, an analytical model of different droplet-wall impingement conditions is developed in terms of βm (dimensionless maximum spreading length, the ratio of maximum spreading length to initial droplet diameter) to understand the detailed impinging dynamic process. These conditions are grouped as: a single diesel droplet impinging on the wall with different inclined angles (α); cold wall - heated droplet and heated wall - cold droplet impingement when inclined angle of the wall is 0°, respectively. The analytical model is built up based on the energy conservation that considers kinetic energy, gravitation energy, and surface energy before impingement, as well as viscous dissipation, gravitation energy, adhesion energy, deformation energy, and heat energy after impingement. The experimental work of diesel droplet impinging on an inclined wall is performed at a certain range of the Weber number (We of 33 to 420) with various inclined angles (α of 0° to 45°), while for inclined angle is 0°, droplet and wall temperature are varied from 25°C to 150°C to study the effects of the inclined angle and temperature on the temporal evolution of the post-impingement characteristics (i.e. droplet spreading length, dynamic contact angle). The analytical model is validated and evaluated at the aforementioned experimental operating points. The validated model can be employed to predict maximum spreading length of the droplet impinged on the wall. It is further utilized to determine the transition from capillary regime to kinetic regime, then to viscous regime at different inclined angle of the wall.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Training calibration-based counterfactual explainers for deep learning models in medical image analysis

The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence methods in healthcare is coupled with the critical need for techniques to rigorously introspect models and thereby ensure that they behave reliably. This has led to the design of explainable AI techniques that uncover the relationships between discernible data signatures and model predictions. In this context, counterfactual explanations that synthesize small, interpretable changes to a given query while producing desired changes in model predictions have become popular. This under-constrained, inverse problem is vulnerable to introducing irrelevant feature manipulations, particularly when the model’s predictions are not well-calibrated. Hence, in this paper, we propose the TraCE (training calibration-based explainers) technique, which utilizes a novel uncertainty-based interval calibration strategy for reliably synthesizing counterfactuals. Given the wide-spread adoption of machine-learned solutions in radiology, our study focuses on deep models used for identifying anomalies in chest X-ray images. Using rigorous empirical studies, we demonstrate the superiority of TraCE explanations over several state-of-the-art baseline approaches, in terms of several widely adopted evaluation metrics. Our findings show that TraCE can be used to obtain a holistic understanding of deep models by enabling progressive exploration of decision boundaries, to detect shortcuts, and to infer relationships between patient attributes and disease severity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generation of realistic input parameters for simulating atmospheric point-spread functions at astronomical observatories

High-fidelity simulated astronomical images are an important tool in developing and measuring the performance of image-processing algorithms, particularly for high precision measurements of cosmic shear – correlated distortions of images of distant galaxies due to weak gravitational lensing caused by the large-scale mass distribution in the Universe. For unbiased measurements of cosmic shear, all other sources of correlated image distortions must be modeled or removed. One such source is the correlated blurring of images due to optical turbulence in the atmosphere, which dominates the point-spread function (PSF) for ground-based instruments. In this work, we leverage data from weather forecasting models to produce wind speeds and directions, and turbulence parameters, that are realistically correlated with altitude. To study the resulting correlations in the size and shape of the PSF, we generate simulated images of the PSF across a ~10 square-degree field of view – the size of the camera focal plane for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile – using weather data and historical seeing for a geographic location near the Observatory. We make quantitative predictions for two-point correlation functions (2PCF) that are used in analyses of cosmic shear. We observe a strong anisotropy in the two-dimensional 2PCF, which is expected based on observations in real images, and study the dependence of the orientation of the anisotropy on dominant wind directions near the ground and at higher altitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Process Testing of MSR Salt Spill Accidents

Part of the licensing process for new nuclear reactors requires vendors to assess the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios using accident progression modeling. The accident scenario that will likely be evaluated by all molten salt reactor (MSR) developers is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). The development of accident progression models requires experimental data to inform which processes to incorporate, to enable the calculation of parameters to model these processes, and to validate the model predictions. The data should quantify the sensitivities of key processes (e.g., molten salt spreading, heat transfer, containment structure corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, results from integrated process tests that quantify coupled processes are required to validate systems-level models. This report documents results from integrated process tests conducted on simulated molten salt spill accidents. The generated experimental data simultaneously quantify the heat transfer behavior of the spilled salt, compositional changes to the bulk salt, and the release of surrogate fission products from the spilled salt as aerosol particles. All tests that were conducted used FLiNaK doped with surrogate fission products, and the variables that were evaluated included the initial salt temperature and the concentration of surrogate fission products present in the salt. The major accomplishments of this work include identifying surrogate fuel salt compositions that provide insight into the dispersal behavior of radionuclides of potential significance to the source term, employing previously developed methods and measurement techniques to simultaneously measure key processes, generating data on the coupled processes of molten salt heat transfer and surrogate fission product release as aerosol particles, demonstrating new test methods for real-time monitoring of the flow rate of the spill and aerosol size quantification in an argon atmosphere, and developing a mass transfer model for cesium and iodine release from molten FLiNaK to provide insight into aerosol formation by vapor condensation. The same methodology applied herein can be employed to study different salt compositions of interest to MSR developers, different environmental conditions, and other variables that are relevant to postulated accident scenarios. The insights gained from these integrated process tests conducted at a laboratory scale will be incorporated into future integral effects tests conducted at an engineering scale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural Posterior Estimation for Cataloging Astronomical Images with Spatially Varying Backgrounds and Point Spread Functions

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a type of amortized variational inference, is a computationally efficient means of constructing probabilistic catalogs of light sources from astronomical images. To date, NPE has not been used to perform inference in models with spatially varying covariates. However, ground-based astronomical images exhibit spatially varying sky backgrounds and point spread functions (PSFs), and accounting for this variation is essential for constructing accurate catalogs of imaged light sources. In this work, we introduce a novel NPE-based cataloging method that trains an inference network with semisynthetic astronomical images generated using PSFs and backgrounds sampled from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. In experiments with semisynthetic images, we evaluate the method on key cataloging tasks: light source detection, star/galaxy separation, and flux measurement. A “generalist” inference network—trained with diverse PSFs and backgrounds—performs as well as a “specialist” network even when both are evaluated on the specialist’s particular PSF/background combination. This result suggests that a single NPE network can generalize across spatial variations, eliminating the need for retraining on each observational condition.

astronomy image processing↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Deep Gravity model for mobility flows generation

The movements of individuals within and among cities influence critical aspects of our society, such as well-being, the spreading of epidemics, and the quality of the environment. When information about mobility flows is not available for a particular region of interest, we must rely on mathematical models to generate them. In this work, we propose Deep Gravity, an effective model to generate flow probabilities that exploits many features (e.g., land use, road network, transport, food, health facilities) extracted from voluntary geographic data, and uses deep neural networks to discover non-linear relationships between those features and mobility flows. Our experiments, conducted on mobility flows in England, Italy, and New York State, show that Deep Gravity achieves a significant increase in performance, especially in densely populated regions of interest, with respect to the classic gravity model and models that do not use deep neural networks or geographic data. Deep Gravity has good generalization capability, generating realistic flows also for geographic areas for which there is no data availability for training. Finally, we show how flows generated by Deep Gravity may be explained in terms of the geographic features and highlight crucial differences among the three considered countries interpreting the model’s prediction with explainable AI techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anomalous Transport in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks: Interplay Between Aperture Heterogeneity and Injection Modes

In this work, we study how the interplay between fracture aperture heterogeneity and tracer injection mode controls fluid flow and tracer transport in three-dimensional (3D) discrete fracture networks (DFNs). The direct 3-D DFN simulations show that tracer injection mode has substantial effects on tracer spreading across all levels of aperture heterogeneity. The key controlling factor for effective transport is the initial Lagrangian velocity distribution, which is determined by the interplay between injection mode and aperture heterogeneity. The fundamental difference between initial Lagrangian velocity distribution and domain-scale Eulerian velocity distribution plays a vital role in determining anomalous transport. We effectively capture the observed anomalous transport using an upscaled transport model that incorporates initial velocity distribution, stationary velocity distribution, velocity correlation length, and average advective tortuosity. With the upscaled transport model, we accurately capture the evolution of Lagrangian velocity distribution and predict longitudinal spreading in 3-D DFN.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using SWMM for emergency response planning: A case study evaluating biological agent transport under various rainfall scenarios and urban surfaces

To assist in emergency preparedness for a biological agent terrorist attack or accidental pathogen release, potential contaminant levels and migration pathways of spores spread by urban stormwater were evaluated using a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) of U.S. Coast Guard Base Elizabeth City, North Carolina. The high temporal-spatial resolution SWMM model was built using spore concentrations in stormwater runoff from asphalt, grass, and concrete collected from a point-scale field study. The subsequent modeled contamination scenarios included a notional plume release and point releases mimicking the field study under three rainfall conditions. The rainfall scenarios included a 6-hour natural rainfall event on Dec. 8, 2021 and two design storms (2-year and 100-year events). The observed spore concentrations from asphalt and concrete from the actual field experiment were applied to calibrate the washoff parameters in the SWMM model, using an exponential washoff function. The calibrated washoff coefficient (c 1 ) and exponent (c 2 ) were 0.01 and 1.00 for asphalt, 0.05 and 1.45 for grass, and 2.45 and 1.00 for concrete, respectively. The calibrated SWMM model simulated spore concentrations in runoff at times and magnitudes similar to the field study data. In the point release modeled scenario, the concrete surface generated 55.6% higher average spore concentrations than asphalt. Similarly, in the field experiment, a 175% (p < 0.05) higher average spore concentration in surface runoff was observed from concrete than from asphalt. Here, this study demonstrates how SWMM may be used to evaluate spore washoff from urban surfaces under different precipitation amounts, intensities, and durations, and how visualized spatial migration pathways in stormwater runoff may be used for emergency planning and remediation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reaction-diffusive dynamics of number-conserving dissipative quantum state preparation

The use of dissipation for the controlled creation of nontrivial quantum many-body correlated states is of much fundamental and practical interest. What is the result of imposing number conservation, which, in closed system, gives rise to diffusive spreading? For this work, we investigate this question for a paradigmatic model of a two-band system, with dissipative dynamics aiming to empty one band and to populate the other, which had been introduced before for the dissipative stabilization of topological states. Going beyond the mean-field treatment of the dissipative dynamics, we demonstrate the emergence of a diffusive regime for the particle and hole density modes at intermediate length- and timescales, which, interestingly, can only be excited in nonlinear response to external fields. We also identify processes that limit the diffusive behavior of this mode at the longest length- and timescales. Strikingly, we find that these processes lead to a reaction-diffusion dynamics governed by the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov equation, making the designed dark state unstable towards a state with a finite particle and hole density.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data

Pathogen genomic sequence data are increasingly made available for epidemiological monitoring. A main interest is to identify and assess the potential of infectious disease outbreaks. While popular methods to analyze sequence data often involve phylogenetic tree inference, they are vulnerable to errors from recombination and impose a high computational cost, making it difficult to obtain real-time results when the number of sequences is in or above the thousands. Here, we propose an alternative strategy to outbreak detection using genomic data based on deep learning methods developed for image classification. The key idea is to use a pairwise genetic distance matrix calculated from viral sequences as an image, and develop convolutional neutral network (CNN) models to classify areas of the images that show signatures of active outbreak, leading to identification of subsets of sequences taken from an active outbreak. We showed that our method is efficient in finding HIV-1 outbreaks with R0 ≥ 2.5, and overall a specificity exceeding 98% and sensitivity better than 92%. We validated our approach using data from HIV-1 CRF01 in Europe, containing both endemic sequences and a well-known dual outbreak in intravenous drug users. Our model accurately identified known outbreak sequences in the background of slower spreading HIV. Importantly, we detected both outbreaks early on, before they were over, implying that had this method been applied in real-time as data became available, one would have been able to intervene and possibly prevent the extent of these outbreaks. This approach is scalable to processing hundreds of thousands of sequences, making it useful for current and future real-time epidemiological investigations, including public health monitoring using large databases and especially for rapid outbreak identification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing Intra-Halo Light with Galaxy Stacking in CIBER Images

We study the stellar halos of 0.2 ≲ $z$ ≲ 0.5 galaxies with stellar masses spanning $M$* ~ 10 10.5 to 10 12 $M$ ⊙ (approximately $L$* galaxies at this redshift) using imaging data from the Cosmic Infrared Background Experiment (CIBER). A previous CIBER fluctuation analysis suggested that intra-halo light (IHL) contributes a significant portion of the near-infrared extragalactic background light (EBL), the integrated emission from all sources throughout cosmic history. In this work, we carry out a stacking analysis with a sample of ~30,000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometric galaxies from CIBER images in two near-infrared bands (1.1 and 1.8 $μ$m) to directly probe the IHL associated with these galaxies. We stack galaxies in five sub-samples split by brightness and detect an extended galaxy profile beyond the instrument point-spread function (PSF) derived by stacking stars. We jointly fit a model for the inherent galaxy light profile plus large-scale one- and two-halo clustering to measure the extended galaxy IHL. We detect nonlinear one-halo clustering in the 1.8 $μ$m band at a level consistent with numerical simulations. Furthermore, by extrapolating the fraction of extended galaxy light, we measure to all galaxy mass scales, we find ~30%/15% of the total galaxy light budget from galaxies is at radius $r$ > 10/20 kpc, respectively. These results are new at near-infrared wavelengths at the $L$* mass scale and suggest that the IHL emission and one-halo clustering could have appreciable contributions to the amplitude of large-scale EBL background fluctuations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially-Resolved Characterization Techniques and Their Implications for Nuclear Debris Formation.

Debris from nuclear tests has a complex formation process and can inform multiple fields of study such as geology, atmospheric science, shock physics, and chemistry under extreme conditions. Macroscopic nuclear debris forms as the result of fireball interaction with surrounding materials (e.g., structural and environmental component), which rapidly undergo melting and vaporization followed by condensation, convective/diffusive mixing, and solidification over the course of seconds. In atmospheric events, some of this material may disperse over long distances, but much of the material is deposited close-in to ground zero, often in multicomponent, partially (or entirely) amorphous debris formations. During the U.S. nuclear testing program, this material was collected and analyzed, particularly for radionuclide composition. Fallout formation models were developed from nuclear test data based on such radionuclide compositional analyses. These models were not just used to understand fallout dispersion (i.e. the spread of radioactivity over geographical regions) but also guide radiochemical interpretations of historical nuclear tests.6 Developments in analytical techniques over the past several decades have made it possible to make new analyses on historical debris, some of which may be more than a half-century old. For example, inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) has been used to look at the trace elements in glassy fallout material from aboveground nuclear tests (including the Trinity test). Advanced analyses using X-ray absorption allowed for the measurement of oxidation state of fallout constituents, including actinides. The ability to measure trace actinides and their subsequent oxidation state is important to understanding how the surrounding environment may have influenced the resultant fallout composition and may have implications for why certain fractionation trends have been observed. Here we present data from historic nuclear test debris illustrating the power of spatially resolved methods to connect interaction of the near-field environment with the explosion and provide new insights into nuclear debris formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Chemical Complexity of Multicomponent Systems: Uranium Polyoxometalates as Nanosorbents

The overarching objective of this project was to develop a molecular-scale understanding of chemical interactions of the transuranic (TRU) elements with uranyl-based polyoxometalate nanoclusters (UPOMs). The specific goals that supported this overarching objective were to: (i) quantify TRU interactions with UPOMs as a function of TRU, carbonate, and UPOM concentration, pH, and temperature; (ii) examine the molecular-level bonding environment of TRU-UPOM complexes; and (iii) develop a rate expression capable of describing the sorption and reduction of TRU by UPOMs. The published literature suggests several potential interactions can occur in TRU-UPOM systems: (i) encapsulation of TRU and coordination with the internal ‘-yl’ oxygens of the UPOM, (ii) coordination of TRU with the external ‘-yl’ oxygens of the UPOM, and (iii) coordination of TRU with the bridging ligands (e.g., peroxo, hydroxo, oxalate) of the UPOM. The latter two may induce aggregation of the UPOMs. The concept of encapsulation is demonstrated by the X-ray diffraction structure of crystallized U 20 , which reveals a Na + cation under each pentagonal face (Sigmon et al., 2009). Computational modeling shows that, while the negative charge of U 20 is spread among all the oxygen atoms, the internal ‘-yl’ oxygens host the most negative charge (Miro and Bo, 2012). This negative charge is reduced through the complexation of the templating sodium ions in the interior of the UPOM. Furthermore, Nyman et al. (2011) shows that cesium can exit through the pentagonal window of U 28 in the aqueous phase, suggesting that the TRU elements, which are smaller than cesium, may be capable of entering a UPOM through these windows in an exchange reaction. Under this project, we focused on hafnium, neptunium, and plutonium interactions with UPOMs.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making

It is widely believed that one’s peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the “pattern” by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game decides among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1) even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when their peers make a similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2) when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments, we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion, which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gauge R & R studies for angular measurements

Angular measurements lie on the circumference of a circle and have different characteristics than standard scalar measurements. For applications involving angular data, treating the measured values as scalars can lead to misinterpretation of results if its wrap-around nature is not taken into account. In this article, we propose a variance components wrapped normal model for angular measurements that is analogous to the standard normal model for continuous measurements. This model allows decomposition of contributions to the overall variance to be separated and compared to understand the drivers of the spread of the data. In this work, we analyze gauge R & R study data using Bayesian methods and illustrate the use of this wrapped normal model with simulated and real data. We also performed a small simulation study in considering the design of gauge R & R studies with angular measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗