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At least 325 records · Page 18

Evaluation of the Simulation of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Coverages by Eleven Major Global Climate Models

Comparison of polar sea ice results from 11 major global climate models and satellite-derived observations for 1979-2004 reveals that each of the models is simulating seasonal cycles that are phased at least approximately correctly in both hemispheres. Each is also simulating various key aspects of the observed ice cover distributions, such as winter ice not only throughout the central Arctic basin but also throughout Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitudes. However, some of the models simulate too much ice, others too little ice (in some cases varying depending on hemisphere and/or season), and some match the observations better in one season versus another. Several models do noticeably better in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, and one does noticeably better in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere all simulate monthly average ice extents to within +/-5.1 x 10(exp 6)sq km of the observed ice extent throughout the year; and in the Southern Hemisphere all except one simulate the monthly averages to within +/-6.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km of the observed values. All the models properly simulate a lack of winter ice to the west of Norway; however, most do not obtain as much absence of ice immediately north of Norway as the observations show, suggesting an under simulation of the North Atlantic Current. The spread in monthly averaged ice extents amongst the 11 model simulations is greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and greatest in the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.

Parksinson, Claire↗

Vortex ring bubbles

Toroidal bubbles with circulation are studied numerically and by means of a physically motivated model equation. Two series of computations are performed by a boundary-integral method. One set shows the starting motion of an initially spherical bubble as a gravitationally driven liquid jet penetrates through the bubble from below causing a toroidal geometry to develop. The jet becomes broader as surface tension increases and fails to penetrate if surface tension is too large. The dimensionless circulation that develops is not very dependent on the surface tension. The second series of computations starts from a toroidal geometry, with circulation determined from the earlier series, and follows the motion of the rising and spreading vortex ring. Some modifications to the boundary-integral formulation were devised to handle the multiply connected geometry. The computations uncovered some unexpected rapid oscillations of the ring radius. These oscillations and the spreading of the ring are explained by the model equation which provides a more general description of vortex ring bubbles than previously available.

Lundgren, T. S.↗

Dynamics of the Molten Contact Line

The purpose of this program is to develop a basic understanding of how a molten material front spreads over a solid that is below its melting point, arrests, and freezes. Our hope is that the work will contribute toward a scientific knowledge base for certain new applications involving molten droplet deposition, including the "printing" of arbitrary three-dimensional objects by precise deposition of individual molten microdrops that solidify after impact. Little information is available at this time on the capillarity-driven motion and arrest of molten contact line regions. Schiaffino and Sonin investigated the arrest of the contact line of a molten microcrystalline wax spreading over a subcooled solid "target" of the same material. They found that contact line arrest takes place at an apparent liquid contact angle that depends primarily on the Stefan number S=c(T(sub f) -T(sub t)/L based on the temperature difference between the fusion point and the target temperature, and proposed that contact line arrest occurs when the liquid's dynamic contact angle approaches the angle of attack of the solidification front just behind the contact line. They also showed, however, that the conventional continuum equations and boundary conditions have no meaningful solution for this angle. The solidification front angle is determined by the heat flux just behind the contact line, and the heat flux is singular at that point. By comparing experiments with numerical computations, Schiaffino and Sonin estimated that the conventional solidification model must break down within a distance of order 0.1 - 1 microns of the contact line. The physical mechanism for this breakdown is as yet undetermined, and no first-principles theory exists for the contact angle at arrest. Schiaffino and Sonin also presented a framework for understanding how to moderate Weber number molten droplet deposition in terms of similarity laws and experimentation. The study is based on experiments with three molten materials- molten wax on solid wax, water on ice, and mercury on frozen mercury- which between them span a considerable range of the deposition/solidification similarity parameters. Correlations are obtained for the spreading velocity, spreading time scales, the spreading factor (i.e. ratio of deposited drop's final footprint radius and the drop's initial radius), post-spreading liquid oscillation amplitudes and time scales, and bulk solidification time scales. Duthaler carried out an experimental and theoretical investigation of the relationship between the liquid's apparent contact angle and the Capillary number Ca=mu U/sigma based on contact line speed, for molten materials spreading over subcooled solids. This relationship is required for modeling of melt spreading. We have adapted Voinov's methodology to the molten contact line and formulated a theoretical model for the Ca vs. contact angle relationship, based Schiaffino and Sonin#s (1997a,b) wedge-like solidification front model. With the solidification front angle taken from Schiaffino and Sonin, the model is in good agreement with the experimental results for Ca vs. contact angle. Duthaler also extended the experimental investigation of droplet deposition and contact line freezing to more materials, including solder on glass, solder on solder, water on ice, and molten microcrystalline wax on wax. The latter also included tests on inclined targets. Deposition tests have also been done with molten octacosane (C28H58) on various targets. An important objective of our program has been the development of micron-scale sensors for measuring the transient temperature at a point on the substrate surface as a molten contact line moves over it. The expectation is that this temperature history will yield a better understanding of the thermal process in the contact line region. The sensors are of the thermistor type, either 2.5 microns or 1.5 microns square, microfabricated with silicon-based technology on either pure silicon or amorphous silicon dioxide chips. Each chip has 32 sensors distributed on its surface in arrays. The time response is better than 10 ms. At the time of writing, sensor calibration is in progress. Results on thermal transients during contact line passage will be discussed at the conference. While we expect that the data will provide information on the near-contact-line heat transfer process, we also foresee possible problems. First, the spatial resolution of the sensors may be insufficient to resolve the near-contact-line region. Second, the sensors protrude about 0.5 microns above the substrate surface, and may affect the contact line motion. Third, a sensor's temperature history depends on both the heat flux distribution into it from the fusion front and the thermal properties of the substrate below it and the solidified melt between it and the fusion front. The heat flux distribution in the contact line region must therefore be unfolded from computations of the overall system's transient thermal response.

Sonin, Ain A.↗

An Efficient End-To-End Model for the Kepler Photometer

The Kepler Mission is designed to characterize the frequency of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones of solar-like stars in the solar galactic neighborhood by observing >100,000 main-sequence stars in a >100 square degree field of view (FOV) and seeking evidence of transiting planets. As part of the system engineering effort, we have developed an End-To-End Model (ETEM) of the photometer to better characterize the expected performance of the instrument and to guide us in making design trades. This model incorporates engineering information such as the point spread function, time histories of pointing offsets, operating temperature, quantization noise, the effects of shutterless readout, and read noise. Astrophysical parameters, such as a realistic distribution of stars vs. magnitude for the chosen FOV, zodiacal light, and cosmic ray events are also included. For a given set of design and operating parameters, ETEM generates pixel time series for all pixels of interest for a single CCD channel of the photometer. These time series are then processed to form light curves for the target stars and the impact of various noise sources on the combined differential photometric precision can be determined. This model is of particular value when investigating the effects of noise sources that cannot be easily subjected to direct analysis, such as residual pointing offsets, thermal drift or cosmic ray effects. This version of ETEM features extremely efficient computation times relative to the previous version while maintaining a high degree of fidelity with respect to the realism of the relevant phenomena.

performance modeling↗

Diffusive and Radiative Transport in Fires (DARTFire): Opposed-Flow Flame Spread in Low-Velocity Flows

For flames spreading into a low-velocity flow that can only be obtained in microgravity, we have observed behavior that is different from that which is obtained at higher velocities where radiative effects are unimportant and species transport is relatively fast. Unfortunately, lack of a large body of low-gravity flame spread experimental data inhibits progress in developing an understanding of the physics of low-velocity, opposed-flow flame spread phenomena. Recent DARTFire sounding rocket experimental studies though, coupled with developing theory and modelling, have allowed some strides in understanding to be made, on which we report here. Four launches to date have resulted in six experiments for opposed-flow flame spread over a thick PMMA sample. During the 6 min microgravity period, the PMMA samples were ignited, and steady flame spread was studied under varied flow velocity, oxidizer atmospheric conditions, and, because radiative heat transfer is so important in these slowly spreading flames, external radiant flux. These were the first attempts at such experimental control and measurement in microgravity. A recent reflight of the Solid Surface Combustion Experiment (SSCE) has demonstrated, as modelling predicts, that for the thick fuel of the DARTFire experiment, flame spread in a quiescent environment is a transient process evolving from ignition to extinction on the order of 600 s (Altenkirch et al., 1999). Further study then of the effects of radiation in the very low-velocity opposing flows is of interest in understanding the transition from steady, sustained spread to the unsteady evolution to extinction as the opposing flow is reduced further and eventually removed.

Altenkirch, R. A.↗

Northeast US Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Invasive Plant Habitat Suitability to Support Management Efforts in the American Northeast

Invasive plant species threaten environmental and economic interests when they spread into new areas, outcompete native species, and disrupt ecosystem services. If the spread is not controlled early, species can become well-established and increasingly difficult to manage. The National Park Service (NPS) Invasive Plant Management Teams (IPMTs) strive for an “early detection, rapid response” approach to reducing invasive species spread. Management teams can better prioritize their work with the help of species distribution models (SDMs), which map habitat suitability by combining species occurrences with environmental predictor variables. Scarce invaded range data for newly arrived invasive species presents a particular challenge for producing accurate models. To improve future modeling efforts, this project compared SDM methods using different spatial scales to model two plant species invasive to the Northeast US: the well-established Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) and newer invasive species wavyleaf basketgrass (Oplismenus undulatifolius). The team used NASA Earth observations and climate datasets to model occurrence data and predictor layers at a US-specific extent (90m2 spatial resolution) and global extent (1 km2 spatial resolution). Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) provided data for US Normalized Difference Moisture Indices (NDMI), while global NDMI and topographic predictor layers were derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The resulting models indicated important predictor variables for each species and explored the benefits and tradeoffs of using global data to model habitat suitability for new-arrival invasive species.

Rebecca Ohman↗

A nonlinear model for gas chromatograph systems

Fundamental engineering design techniques and concepts were studied for the optimization of a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer chemical analysis system suitable for use on an unmanned, Martian roving vehicle. Previously developed mathematical models of the gas chromatograph are found to be inadequate for predicting peak heights and spreading for some experimental conditions and chemical systems. A modification to the existing equilibrium adsorption model is required; the Langmuir isotherm replaces the linear isotherm. The numerical technique of Crank-Nicolson was studied for use with the linear isotherm to determine the utility of the method. Modifications are made to the method eliminate unnecessary calculations which result in an overall reduction of the computation time of about 42 percent. The Langmuir isotherm is considered which takes into account the composition-dependent effects on the thermodynamic parameter, mRo.

Feinberg, M. P.↗

Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development

The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near‐Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.

Effinger, Michael↗

Pancakelike domes on Venus

The shape of seven large domes on the plains of Venus, with volumes between 100 and 1000 cu km, is compared with that of an axisymmetric gravity current spreading over a rigid horizontal surface. Both the altimetric profiles and the horizontal projection of the line of intersection of domes on the SAR images agree well with the theoretical similarity solution for a newtonian fluid, but not with the shape calculated for a rigid-plastic rheology, nor with that for a static model with a strong skin. As a viscous current spreads, it generates an isotropic strain rate tensor whose magnitude is independent of radius. Such a flow can account for the randomly oriented cracks that are uniformly distributed on the surface of the domes. The stress induced by the flow in the plains material below is obtained, and is probably large enough to produce the short radial cracks in the surface of the plains beyond the domes. The viscosity of the domes can be estimated from their thermal time constants if spreading is possible only when the fluid is hot, and lies between 10(exp 14) and 10(exp 17) Pa s. Laboratory experiments show that such viscosities correspond to temperatures of 610 - 690 C in dry rhyolitic magmas. These temperatures agree with laboratory measurements of the solidus temperature of wet rhyolite. These results show that the development of the domes can be understood using simple fluid dynamical ideas, and that the magmas involved can be produced by wet melting at depths below 10 km, followed by eruption and degassing.

Mckenzie, Dan↗

Ion Transport Modeling in Non-Collisional RF Sheaths

A reactor scale ICP plasma model does not adequately resolve the submillimeter scale rf sheaths due to severe disparities in length and times scales. These non-collisional sheaths determine the spread in the ion bombardment energy distribution on the wafer. Analytical models based on "damped potential" has been used by various authors to simplify sheath modeling. However, inherent in these models are some assumptions that may be invalid. In this work we show that simplifying assumptions such as a uniform ion flux may be in error by as much as 200% at 13.56MHz. This work involves solving ion transport in non-collisional rf sheaths. A comprehensive study of the dependence of ion flux and energy on uncertainties in the sheath-presheath (i.e. sheath thickness) boundary will also be done.

Meyyappan, M.↗

A Comparison of Perturbed Initial Conditions and Multiphysics Ensembles in a Severe Weather Episode in Spain

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.

severe weather↗

The Geometric Spreading of Coronal Plumes and Coronal Holes

The geometric spreading in plumes and in the interplume region in coronal holes is calculated, using analytic and numerical theoretical models, between 1.0 and 5.0 solar radius. We apply two scale approximation that permits the rapid local spreading at the base of plumes to be evaluated separately from the global spreading imposed by coronal hole geometry. We show that fl can be computed from a potential field model and fg can be computed from global magnetohydrodynamic simulations of coronal structure. The approximations are valid when the plasma beta is small with respect to unity and for a plume separation small with respect to a solar radius.

Suess, S. T.↗

The Spatial Intensity Distribution of the UV Light in HH Objects. Revisited

Simple kinematical bow shock models have successfylly explained many of the observed features in Herbig-Haro objects. It is shown that similar models can be applied to the spatial intensity distribution of the UV lines observed by IUE. Archival IUE spectra have been used for the HH 1, HH 2(H+A'), HH 2(G+B), HH 24A, HH 32A, HH 43(A+B+C), and HH 47A objects where the brightest UV lines (C IV (lambda)1549,Si III(lambda)1891, C III] (lambda)1909, C II] (lambda)2326, MgII (lambda)2799) were studied, as well as the UV continuum (modeled by the hydrogen two-photon contiuum). The quality of the IUE data is rather limited due to the broad point spread function and the low signal-to-noise, and therefore the models were degraded to make them comparable to the observations. The physical parameters used in the models were obtained from previous optical studies and varied accordingly to match the observations, but within the known uncertainties. The objects were modeled by a single bow shock model (i.e., HH 1, HH 24A, HH 32A, and HH 47A) or the superposition of two (i.e., HH 2(H+A') and HH 2(G+B) or more (i.e., HH 43(A+B+C)) of them. The idea was to take into account the complexity of the morphology of these objects, and the contribution to the UV light from diffrent condensations within the IUE aperature.

Moro-Martin, A.↗

Isochronal Age-mass Discrepancy of Young Stars: SCExAO/CHARIS Integral Field Spectroscopy of the HIP 79124 Triple System

We present SCExAO/CHARIS 1.1-2.4 μm integral field direct spectroscopy of the young HIP 79124 triple system. HIP 79124 is a member of the Scorpius-Centaurus association, consisting of an A0V primary with two low-mass companions at a projected separation of < 1″. Thanks to the high quality wavefront corrections provided by SCExAO, both companions are decisively detected without the employment of any PSF-subtraction algorithm to eliminate quasi-static noise. The spectrum of the outer C object is very well matched by Upper Scorpius M4 ± 0.5 standard spectra, with a T(eff) = 2945 ± 100 K and a mass of ∼350 M(Jup). HIP 79124 B is detected at a separation of only 180 mas in a highly-correlated noise regime, and it falls in the spectral range M6 ± 0.5 with T(eff) = 2840 ± 190 K and ∼100 M(Jup). Previous studies of stellar populations in Sco-Cen have highlighted a discrepancy in isochronal ages between the lower-mass and higher-mass populations. This could be explained either by an age spread in the region, or by conventional isochronal models failing to reproduce the evolution of low-mass stars. The HIP 79124 system should be coeval, and therefore it provides an ideal laboratory to test these scenarios. We place the three components in a color-magnitude diagram and find that the models predict a younger age for the two low-mass companions (∼3 Myr) than for the primary star (∼6 Myr). These results imply that the omission of magnetic effects in conventional isochronal models inhibit them from reproducing early low-mass stellar evolution, which is further supported by the fact that new models that include such effects provide more consistent ages in the HIP 79124 system.

Ruben Asensio-Torres↗

Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone‐depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone‐depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite‐based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total‐column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

ozone depletion↗

Coronado Ecological Conservation: Assessing Vegetation Change Due to Border Wall Construction and Shifting Social Trails

Species monitoring is essential in mitigating the impacts of plant invasion, such as radical changes in an area’s ecosystem, degraded soil health, increased wildfire severity, landslides, and increased flooding. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) to investigate invasive species in disturbed lands: specifically, areas affected by off-trail walking and US-Mexico border construction activities. The team assessed how construction has impacted the distribution of Lehmann’s lovegrass and Russian thistle invasives throughout Coronado National Memorial, AZ from 1986 to 2022. Using data from Landsat 5 and 8, Sentinel-2, the National Agriculture Imagery Program, and PlanetScope, the team computed vegetation indices including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Moisture Index, Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and Tasseled Cap Wetness, Brightness, and Greenness transformations as vegetation health indicators to input into various machine learning algorithms. To minimize noise, the team conducted Principal Component Analysis on the vegetation indices and spectral bands before running k-means++ clustering and random forest classification algorithms. Between all datasets, we found the median area fully overtaken by invasive plants was 5.37% of the park’s total area in 2022. The NPS will use the end products to help increase restoration efforts in disturbed areas with high concentrations of invasive plants. The NPS’s collection of ground data for 2022–2023, in conjunction with future data collection, will notably improve the accuracy of classification models, leading to more precise monitoring of invasive spread over time.

Carson Schuetze↗

Thermal and chemical convection in planetary mantles

Melting of the upper mantle and extraction of melt result in the formation of a less dense depleted mantle. This paper describes series of two-dimensional models that investigate the effects of chemical buoyancy induced by these density variations. A tracer particles method has been set up to follow as closely as possible the chemical state of the mantle and to model the chemical buoyant force at each grid point. Each series of models provides the evolution with time of magma production, crustal thickness, surface heat flux, and thermal and chemical state of the mantle. First, models that do not take into account the displacement of plates at the surface of Earth demonstrate that chemical buoyancy has an important effect on the geometry of convection. Then models include horizontal motion of plates 5000 km wide. Recycling of crust is taken into account. For a sufficiently high plate velocity which depends on the thermal Rayleigh number, the cell's size is strongly coupled with the plate's size. Plate motion forces chemically buoyant material to sink into the mantle. Then the positive chemical buoyancy yields upwelling as depleted mantle reaches the interface between the upper and the lower mantle. This process is very efficient in mixing the depleted and undepleted mantle at the scale of the grid spacing since these zones of upwelling disrupt the large convective flow. At low spreading rates, zones of upwelling develop quickly, melting occurs, and the model predicts intraplate volcanism by melting of subducted crust. At fast spreading rates, depleted mantle also favors the formation of these zones of upwelling, but they are not strong enough to yield partial melting. Their rapid displacement toward the ridge contributes to faster large-scale homogenization.

Dupeyrat, L.↗

Burning Questions in Gravity-Dependent Combustion Science

Building upon a long history of spaceflight and ground based research, NASA's Combustion Science program has accumulated a significant body of accomplishments on the ISS. Historically, NASAs low-gravity combustion research program has sought: to provide a more complete understanding of the fundamental controlling processes in combustion by identifying simpler one-dimensional systems to eliminate the complex interactions between the buoyant flow and the energy feedback to the reaction zone to provide realistic simulation of the fire risk in manned spacecraft and to enable practical simulation of the gravitational environment experienced by reacting systems in future spacecraft. Over the past two decades, low-gravity combustion research has focused primarily on increasing our understanding of fundamental combustion processes (e.g. droplet combustion, soot, flame spread, smoldering, and gas-jet flames). This research program was highly successful and was aided by synergistic programs in Europe and in Japan. Overall improvements were made in our ability to model droplet combustion in spray combustors (e.g. jet engines), predict flame spread, predict soot production, and detect and prevent spacecraft fires. These results provided a unique dataset that supports both an active research discipline and also spacecraft fire safety for current and future spacecraft. These experiments have been conducted using the Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR), the Microgravity Science Glovebox and the Express Rack. In this paper, we provide an overview of the earlier space shuttle experiments, the recent ISS combustion experiments in addition to the studies planned for the future. Experiments in combustion include topics such as droplet combustion, gaseous diffusion flames, solid fuels, premixed flame studies, fire safety, and super critical oxidation processes.

Urban, David↗