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Regions of abnormally low proton temperature as signatures of ejecta: Solar cycle dependence and association with other ejecta signatures

Solar wind proton temperatures lower than expected for 'normal' solar wind expansion are a common signature of 'ejecta' (i.e. interplanetary coronal mass ejections). We have surveyed the OMNI solar wind data base for 1965-1991, and Helios data for 1974-1980, to identify regions of abnormally low temperatures. Their occurrence rate is clearly dependent on solar activity levels, in particular when the minority of events associated with encounters with the heliospheric plasma sheet are excluded. The analysis of the OMNI data may provide an indication of the rate of ejecta at the Earth, and hence of the CME rate, extending back to before spacecraft coronagraph observations became available in the early 1970's. We discuss the association of these solar wind structures with cosmic ray depressions bidirectional particle flows, and other ejecta signatures. Our impression is that no one ejecta signature provides a truly comprehensive indication of the presence of ejecta, but that abnormally low temperature depressions encompass most of the regions identified by these other individual signatures.

Richardson, I. G.↗

The October-November, 2003 Solar Activity and its Relationship to the "approx. 155 day" Solar Periodicity

Periodicities of approx. 155 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena were first discovered during solar cycle 21 and have been shown to be intermittently present in other solar cycles. In the current solar cycle (23), they have been reported in solar energetic particle events and interplanetary coronal mass ejections. We assess whether the "unexpected" October - November 2003 burst of solar activity during the late declining phase of the cycle may have been a manifestation of such a periodic behavior, and hence might have been to some extent "predictable". If the pattern were to continue, episodes of enhanced activity might be expected around April - May and October, 2004. There was a modest increase activity increase in mid-April, 2004 which may conform to this pattern.

Richardson, I. G.↗

The October-November, 2003 Solar Activity and its Relationship to the "approximately 155 day" Solar Periodicity

Periodicities of - 155 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena were first discovered during solar cycle 21 and have been shown t o be intermittently present in other solar cycles. In the current solar cycle (23), they have been reported in solar energetic particle events and interplanetary coronal maSS ejections. We assess whether the "unexpected" October - November 2003 burst of solar activity during the late declining phase of the cycle may have been a manifestation of such a periodic behavior, and hence might have been to =me extent "predictable". If the pattern were to continue, episodes of enhanced activity might be expected around April - May and October, 2004. There was a mod- est increase activity increase in mid-April, 2004 which may conform to this pattern.

Richardson, I. G.↗

Simulation of the Solar Energetic Particle Event on 2020 May 29 Observed by Parker Solar Probe

This paper presents a stochastic three-dimensional focused transport simulation of solar energetic particles (SEPs) produced by a data-driven coronal mass ejection (CME) shock propagating through a data-driven model of coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields. The injection of SEPs at the CME shock is treated using diffusive shock acceleration of post-shock suprathermal solar wind ions. A time-backward stochastic simulation is employed to solve the transport equation to obtain the SEP time–intensity profile at any location, energy, and pitch angle. The model is applied to a SEP event on 2020 May 29, observed by STEREO-A close to ∼1 au and by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) when it was about 0.33 au away from the Sun. The SEP event was associated with a very slow CME with a plane-of-sky speed of 337 km s −1 at a height below 6 RS as reported in the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog. We compute the time profiles of particle flux at PSP and STEREO-A locations, and estimate both the spectral index of the proton energy spectrum for energies between ∼2 and 16 MeV and the equivalent path length of the magnetic field lines experienced by the first arriving SEPs. We find that the simulation results are well correlated with observations. The SEP event could be explained by the acceleration of particles by a weak CME shock in the low solar corona that is not magnetically connected to the observers.

Solar energetic particles↗

Monitoring and Modeling Astronaut Occupational Radiation Exposures in Space: Recent Advances

In 1982 astronauts were declared to be radiation workers by OSHA, and as such were subject to the rules and regulations applied to that group. NASA was already aware that space radiation was a hazard to crewmembers and had been studying and monitoring astronaut doses since 1962 at the Johnson Space Center. It was quickly realized NASA would not be able to accomplish all of its goals if the astronauts were subject to the ground based radiation worker limits, and thus received a waiver from OSHA to establish independent limits. As part of the stipulation attached to setting new limits, OSHA included a requirement to perform preflight dose projections for each crew and inform them of the associated risks. Additional requirements included measuring doses from various sources during the flight, making every effort to prevent a crewmember from exceeding the new limits, and keeping all exposures As Low As Reasonably Achievable (a.k.a. ALARA - a common health physics principle). The assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) and its initial manned operations will coincide with the 4-5 year period of high space weather activity at the next maximum in the solar cycle. For the first time in NASA's manned program, US astronauts will be in orbit continuously throughout a solar maximum period. During this period, crews are at risk of significantly increased radiation exposures due to solar particle events and trapped electron belt enhancements following geomagnetic storms. The problem of protecting crews is compounded by the difficulty of providing continuous real-time monitoring over a period of a decade in an era of tightly constrained budgets. In order to prepare for ISS radiological support needs, the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group and the NOAA Space Environment Center have undertaken a multiyear effort to improve and automate ground-based space weather monitoring systems and real-time radiation analysis tools. These improvements include a coupled, automated space weather monitoring and alarm system--SPE exposure analysis system, an advanced space weather data distribution and display system, and a high-fidelity space weather simulation system. In addition, significant new real-time space weather data sets, which will enhance the forecasting and now-casting of near-Earth space environment conditions, are being made available through unique NASA-NOAA-USAF collaborations. These new data sets include coronal mass ejection monitoring by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and in-situ plasma and particle monitoring at the L1 libration point by the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Advanced real-time radiation monitoring data from charged particle telescopes and tissue equivalent proportional counters will also be available to assist crew and flight controllers in monitoring the external and intravehicular radiation environment.

Weyland, Mark↗

The coronal mass ejection of July 6, 1980 - A candidate for interpretation as a coronal shock wave

The July 6, 1980 looplike coronal mass ejection observed with the Solar Maximum Mission coronagraph is described and analyzed. Two observations are given special consideration: (1) the sides of the loop moved laterally while they were visible and did not form stationary bright columns, or 'legs', in the late stage, and (2) raylike features initially outside the mass ejection loop were not pushed aside or bent until the laterally moving loop sides passed over them. These observations, as well as the results of quantitative analysis of the motion of the bright loop, are consistent with the identification of the bright loop as a shock front. The loop top moved outward faster (at about 1000 km/s) than most mass ejections studied previously, and possibly faster than the Alfven speed in the corona, while the loop sides moved laterally at a speed of about 800 km/s and showed no evidence of deceleration. The excess mass in the bright loop is estimated to be less than about 2 x 10 to the 14th g, well below the value found to be typical of coronal mass ejections.

Sime, D. G.↗

Modern Solar Mysteries

100 years ago we thought that the Sun and stars shone as a result of slow gravitational contraction over a few tens of millions of years - putting astronomers at odds with geologists who claimed that the Earth was much, much older. That mystery was solved in the 1920s and 30s with the discovery of nuclear energy (proving that the geologists had it right all along). Other scientific mysteries concerning the Sun have come and gone but three major mysteries remain: 1) How does the Sun produce sunspots with an 11-year cycle? 2) What produces the huge explosions that result in solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections? and 3) Why is the Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, so darned hot? Recent progress in solar astronomy reveals a single key to understanding all three of these mysteries.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Recent Progress in Understanding the Sun's Magnetic Dynamo

100 years ago we thought that the Sun and stars shone as a result of slow gravitational contraction over a few tens of millions of years - putting astronomers at odds with geologists who claimed that the Earth was much, much older. That mystery was solved in the 1920s and 30s with the discovery of nuclear energy (proving that the geologists had it right all along). Other scientific mysteries concerning the Sun have come and gone but three major mysteries remain: 1) How does the Sun produce sunspots with an 11-year cycle? 2) What produces the huge explosions that result in solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections? and 3) Why is the Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, so darned hot? Recent progress in solar astronomy reveals a single key to understanding all three of these mysteries.The 11-year time scale for the sunspot cycle indicates the presence of a magnetic dynamo within the Sun. For decades this dynamo was though to operate within the Sun's convection zone - the outmost 30% of the Sun where convective currents transport heat and advect magnetic lines of force. The two leading theories for the dynamo had very different models for the dynamics of the convection zone. Actual measurements of the dynamics using the techniques of helioseismology showed that both of these models had to be wrong some 20 years ago. A thin layer of strongly sheared flow at the base of the convection zone (now called the tachocline) was then taken to be the seat of the dynamo. Over the last 10 years it has become apparent that a weak meridional circulation within the convection zone also plays a key role in the dynamo. This meridional circulation has plasma rising up from the tachocline in the equatorial regions, spreading out toward the poles at a top speed of about 10-20 m/s at the surface, sinking back down to the tachocline in the polar regions, and then flowing back toward the equator at a top speed of about 1-2 m/s in the tachocline itself. Recent dynamo models that include this meridional flow now appear to have some power for predicting the size of future sunspot cycles.

Hathaway, David. H.↗

Impacts of Non-Simultaneous Global Photospheric Magnetic Measurements on Coronal and Solar Wind Modeling

The intensity and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be significantly influenced by the background solar wind encountered as they propagate outward from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. In addition, solar energetic particles (SEPs) race ahead of CME shock fronts and flare regions along magnetic field lines largely determined by the background solar wind. Predicting the solar wind accurately is therefore critical for improving forecasts of CMEs, SEPs, and high-speed streams. Modeling of the corona and solar wind is challenging in general, as it is highly dependent on global photospheric magnetic field maps, which serve as the boundary conditions to all coronal models that drive solar wind models. Unfortunately, less than half of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field is reliably measured from any given vantage point and thus it is common for the maps to have highly dated and unreliable measurements in them. While Solar Obiter (SolO) now provides for the first time the opportunity to have simultaneous measurements of nearly the entire surface magnetic field of Sun (e.g., when SolO/PHI measurements are combined with those from SDO/HMI), the required alignment to accomplish this occurs only occasionally. Further, coronal models are extremely sensitive to the strengths of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun, which remain poorly observed. Recently, efforts to mitigate this problem include using flux transport models such as the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, which evolves the field forward in time using well known transport processes occurring on the Sun. However, it cannot account for the emergence of new magnetic flux without direct observations. The ESA VIGIL mission will eventually provide continuous observations from the L5, and the proposed SunCHASER mission will likewise do this at the L4 vantage point should it be funded. Ultimately, what is needed is a constellation of spacecraft distributed around the Sun with magnetographs that continuously measure the global surface magnetic field. In this talk, we discuss how the lack of simultaneous global measurements of the photospheric magnetic field adversely impacts the predictive performance of coronal and solar wind models.

C. Nick Arge↗

Anticipated Electrical Environment at Phobos: Nominal and Solar Storm Conditions

A passing coronal mass ejection (CME) will manifest a different response at an airless body compared to a magnetized planet. Specifically,because the regolith-rich surfaces of airless bodies are directly exposed to the variations in the plasma flow, the surfaces are found to undergo anomalous surface charging during the passing of CME fast plasma events. In this study, we model the surface charging expected at Phobos for nominal solar wind conditions and also those associated with disturbed solar wind conditions during the passage of a CME similar to that observed by MAVEN at Mars in early March 2015. We use an ambipolar diffusion model to examine the development of the trailing wake void in the plasma flow behind Phobos and the formation of mini-wakes within obstruction regions like Stickney Crater. We also consider the roving of an astronaut in Stickney Crater for Phobos positioned near 10 hours Local Time relative to Mars. We examine the plasma dissipation of the collected astronaut charge from contact electrification with the regolith.

Phobos; Surface chargin↗

Improved Modelling of SEP Event Onset Within the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD Framework

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories but also provide important constraints for model validation efforts. However, because of computational limitations, a given physics-based SEP model is usually best suited to capture a particular phase of an SEP event, rather than its whole development from onset through decay. For example, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere often incorporate solar transients only at the outer boundary of their so-called coronal domain – usually set at a heliocentric distance of 20–30 R⊙. This means that particle acceleration at coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks is also computed from this boundary onwards, leading to simulated SEP event onsets that can be many hours later than observed, since shock waves can form much lower in the solar corona. In this work, we aim to improve the modelled onset of SEP events by inserting a “fixed source” of particle injection at the outer boundary of the coronal domain of the coupled WSA–Enlil 3D MHD model of the heliosphere. The SEP model that we employ for this effort is Solar Energetic Particle MODel (SEPMOD), a physics-based test-particle code based on a field line tracer and adiabatic invariant conservation. We apply our initial tests and results of SEPMOD’s fixed-source option to the 2021 October 9 SEP event, which was detected at five well-separated locations in the inner heliosphere – Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, and near-Earth spacecraft.

Solar eruptions↗

Solar system storms in the lab: creating a scaled interplanetary coronal mass ejection

As an active star, the Sun frequently ejects large systems of magnetized plasma called Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs). When these ICMEs reach Earth, they cause geomagnetic storms, and, depending on their intensity, can wreak havoc on modern society [3]. In this project, we designed, executed, and diagnosed a proof-of-principle experiment aimed at studying ICMEs in a laboratory setting.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A comparison of solar helium-3-rich events with type II bursts and coronal mass ejections

The acceleration process for energetic particles in He-3-rich events and for particles in normal-abundance events are compared. A list of 66 He-3-rich events observed with the Goddard Space Flight Center particle detector on ISEE 3 is presented, and it is shown that these events are not statistically associated with either of the two common signatures of normal-abundance events, metric type II and coronal mass ejections. This result indicates that enhanced abundance events may be produced only in the impulsive phases of flares, while normal abundance events are produced in subsequent flare shock waves.

Kahler, S.↗

Magnetic fields in the heliosphere - Pioneer observations

A review is presented of major physical processes in the outer heliosphere involving the magnetic field as measured by Pioneers 10 and 11. Topics discussed include spatial gradients out to 20 AU, the merging of solar wind structures (coronal mass-ejections and corotating streams) from 5 to 20 AU, and the search for waves near 10 AU associated with interstellar ions.

Smith, E. J.↗

Fitting Flux Ropes to a Global MHD Solution: A Comparison of Techniques

Flux rope fitting (FRF) techniques are an invaluable tool for extracting information about the properties of a sub-class of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar wind. However, it has proven difficult to assess their accuracy since the underlying global structure of the CME cannot be independently determined from the data. In contrast, large-scale MHD simulations of CME evolution can provide both a global view as well as localized time series at specific points in space. In this study we apply five different fitting techniques to two hypothetical time series derived from MHD simulation results. Independent teams performed the analysis of the events in "blind tests", for which no information, other than time series, was provided. From the results, we infer the following: 1) Accuracy decreases markedly with increasingly glancing encounters; 2) Correct identification of the boundaries of the flux rope can be a significant limiter; 3) Results from techniques that infer global morphology must be viewed with caution. In spite of these limitations, FRF techniques remain a useful tool for describing in situ observations of flux rope CMEs.

Riley, Pete↗

Causes of Extremely Fast CMEs

We study CMEs observed by LASCO to have plane of the sky velocities exceeding 1500 km/sec. We find that these extremely fast CMEs are typically associated with flares accompanied by erupting prominences. Our results are consistent with a single CME initiation process that consists of three stages. The initial stage is brought about by the emergence of new magnetic flux, which interacts with the pre-existing magnetic configuration and results in a slow rise of the magnetic structure. The second stage is a fast reconnection phase with flaring, filament eruption and a sudden increase of the rise velocity of the magnetic structure (CME). The third stage consists of propagation in the corona. We discuss the sources of these CMEs and the need for improved understanding of the first and third stages.

solar flares↗

Mercury's Dynamic Magnetic Tail

The Mariner 10 and MESSENGER flybys of Mercury have revealed a magnetosphere that is likely the most responsive to upstream interplanetary conditions of any in the solar system. The source of the great dynamic variability observed during these brief passages is due to Mercury's proximity to the Sun and the inverse proportionality between reconnection rate and solar wind Alfven Mach number. However, this planet's lack of an ionosphere and its small physical dimensions also contribute to Mercury's very brief Dungey cycle, approx. 2 min, which governs the time scale for internal plasma circulation. Current observations and understanding of the structure and dynamics of Mercury's magnetotail are summarized and discussed. Special emphasis will be placed upon such questions as: 1) How much access does the solar wind have to this small magnetosphere as a function of upstream conditions? 2) What roles do heavy planetary ions play? 3) Do Earth-like substorms take place at Mercury? 4) How does Mercury's tail respond to extreme solar wind events such coronal mass ejections? Prospects for progress due to advances in the global magnetohydrodynamic and hybrid simulation modeling and the measurements to be taken by MESSENGER after it enters Mercury orbit on March 18, 2011 will be discussed.

Slavin, James A.↗

Workshop Report on Space Weather Risks and Society

As technological innovations produce new capabilities, complexities, and interdependencies, our susceptibility to the societal impacts of space weather increase. There is real concern in the scientific community that our infrastructure would be at significant risk if a major geomagnetic storm should occur. To discuss the societal impacts of space weather, we brought together an interdisciplinary group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders to participate in a workshop entitled Space Weather Risks and Society. The workshop was held at Ames Research Center (ARC) on 15-16 October 2011. The workshop was co-sponsored by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL, part of the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council STFC). The workshop is part of a series of informal weekend workshops hosted by Center Director Pete Worden.

coronal mass ejections↗