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At least 325 records · Page 18

Solar fusion III: New data and theory for hydrogen-burning stars

In stars that lie on the main sequence in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, like our Sun, hydrogen is fused to helium in a number of nuclear reaction chains and series, such as the proton-proton chain and the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycles. Precisely determined thermonuclear rates of these reactions lie at the foundation of the standard solar model. This review, the third decadal evaluation of the nuclear physics of hydrogen-burning stars, is motivated by the great advances made in recent years by solar neutrino observatories, putting experimental knowledge of the proton-proton (𝑝⁢𝑝)-chain neutrino fluxes in the few-percent precision range. The basis of the review is a one-week community meeting held in July 2022 in Berkeley, California, and many subsequent digital meetings and exchanges. The relevant reactions of solar and stellar hydrogen burning are reviewed here from both theoretical and experimental perspectives. Recommendations for the state of the art of the astrophysical 𝑆 factor and its uncertainty are formulated for each of them. Furthermore, several other topics of paramount importance for the solar model are reviewed as well: recent and future neutrino experiments, electron screening, radiative opacities, and current and upcoming experimental facilities. In addition to reaction-specific recommendations, general recommendations are also formed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Efficient Organic Solar Cell with 16.88% Efficiency Enabled by Refined Acceptor Crystallization and Morphology with Improved Charge Transfer and Transport Properties

Abstract Single‐layered organic solar cells (OSCs) using nonfullerene acceptors have reached 16% efficiency. Such a breakthrough has inspired new sparks for the development of the next generation of OSC materials. In addition to the optimization of electronic structure, it is important to investigate the essential solid‐state structure that guides the high efficiency of bulk heterojunction blends, which provides insight in understanding how to pair an efficient donor–acceptor mixture and refine film morphology. In this study, a thorough analysis is executed to reveal morphology details, and the results demonstrate that Y6 can form a unique 2D packing with a polymer‐like conjugated backbone oriented normal to the substrate, controlled by the processing solvent and thermal annealing conditions. Such morphology provides improved carrier transport and ultrafast hole and electron transfer, leading to improved device performance, and the best optimized device shows a power conversion efficiency of 16.88% (16.4% certified). This work reveals the importance of film morphology and the mechanism by which it affects device performance. A full set of analytical methods and processing conditions are executed to achieve high efficiency solar cells from materials design to device optimization, which will be useful in future OSC technology development.

Zhu, Lei↗

Effect of Doping Density on the Performance of Metamorphic GaInAs Solar Cells Grown by Dynamic Hydride Vapor Phase Epitaxy

We study the effect of doping density on the performance of inverted metamorphic ~1 eV GaInAs solar cells grown by dynamic hydride vapor phase epitaxy. We find that the doping efficiency of Se in this material is extremely high, with 5x10 17 cm -3 being the lowest controlled value we could achieve with our present Se source. We compared rear heterojunction devices grown with intentional n-doping of 5x10 17 cm -3 and unintentional n-doping of 5x10 15 cm -3 . The intentionally doped sample exhibited an open circuit voltage ~80 mV higher than the unintentionally doped sample due to reduced dark current, and a bandgap voltage offset, or W OC , of 0.407 V. We believe that future doping optimization will improve carrier collection and W OC in these devices.

GaAs↗

Methods to Incorporate Energy Efficiency in Electricity System Planning and Markets

Electric utilities, independent system operators and regional transmission operators have acquired significant levels of energy efficiency over several decades. The predominant approach utilities use to consider energy efficiency in electricity system planning and ISO/RTOs use in wholesale electricity markets is to reduce load forecasts to account for estimated impacts of relevant policies and programs. But an increasing number of states and utilities are interested in improved analysis of energy efficiency in electricity system planning and wholesale electricity markets. This report describes how to consider energy efficiency as a potential resource for the future by allowing it to compete with all other electricity system resources. Increasing levels of wind and solar, growth in peak demand, and electrification of transportation and other new loads have increased the need for a more flexible and responsive electricity system. Considering energy efficiency as a resource option can support these and other electricity system objectives, including grid reliability, reduced electricity costs, energy efficiency targets, and lower air pollutant emissions. The October 2019 slides were presented at the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Energy Efficiency as a Resource conference and provide an overview of the report. Portions of the report were included in the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Energy Efficiency 2020 Summer Study paper, Planning for the Grid of Tomorrow: Energy Efficiency as a Resource in Utility Resource Plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SMART: Simplified Melting And Rotation-joint Technology

Oil based parabolic trough solar power plants are the most commercially mature CSP technology. However, the upper limit of about 400°C of the current organic heat transfer fluid(HTF)significantly limits the future potential of the technology. Advances in parabolic trough receiver and collector technology have enabled higher operating temperatures of potentially 500°C or above. The search for an improved higher temperature HTF has identified inorganic molten salts, specifically the mix referred to as Solar Salt, a 60:40 mix of sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate salt. However, Solar Salt starts to freeze at about 240°C. This poses a significant challenge for large parabolic trough plants that could have many kilometers of header piping and hundreds of kilometers of receiver piping all filled with molten salt. Plants using molten salt need to be designed to minimize the risk of freezing and to be able to recover from freeze events. Studies and field experiments have shown that this appears to be feasible and the approach appears to have strong economic advantages over conventional trough plants. However, some technical challenges remain related to the use of molten salt in trough solar fields, the cost of the freeze recovery system is significant, and many still question whether the risk of using molten salt is worth the economic upside. In our view, the potential economic upside justifies the continued look at molten salt HTF in parabolic trough plants. The objective of this project was to address the key technical issue remaining, look for opportunities to reduce the cost of the freeze recovery system, and improve the general information and tools available for assessing the design, performance and economics of trough plants using molten salt HTF.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

PR100: Estimated Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Adoption and Load Estimation in Puerto Rico through 2050

The 2-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Study analyzed stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico’s clean energy future. Outputs relating to electricity demand modeling were partially informed by estimates of electric vehicle adoption across all classes of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), and the ensuing charging loads. To create these estimates, the team developed a transportation model for MHDVs in Puerto Rico to estimate the amount and geospatial distribution of energy used. Charging schedules for the different end uses of MHDVs were then used to construct electric load shapes assuming a portion of those vehicles would be replaced by battery electric counterparts. Study results showed that, by 2050, electric vehicles may constitute roughly 50% of the MHDV population in Puerto Rico. The resulting electrical demand curve attributable to MHDV charging showed that, for solar energy-based electrical systems with limited energy storage, this demand may create challenges unless appropriately managed either on the demand or supply side.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Stars in the local galactic thick disc and halo in Gaia EDR3: a catalogue of half a million local main-sequence stars with photometric metallicities

We present a catalogue of 551 214 main-sequence stars in the local (d < 2 kpc) Galactic thick disc and halo, based on a search of stars with large proper motions ($\mu _{\rm tot} \gt 40.0~\rm mas\, yr^{-1}$) in the Gaia Early Data Release 3. We derive photometric metallicity calibrated from the colour–luminosity–metallicity distribution of 20 047 stars with spectroscopic metallicities, collected from various spectroscopic surveys, including SDSS SEGUE/APOGEE, GALAH DR3, and LAMOST DR6. We combine these results to construct an empirical colour–magnitude–metallicity grid, which can be used to estimate photometric metallicities for low-mass metal-poor stars of K and M subtypes from their absolute G magnitude and colour values. We find that low-mass, high-velocity stars in our catalogue share similar kinematics as reported in recent studies of more luminous Galactic halo stars. The pseudo-kinematic analysis of our sample recovers the main local halo structures, including the Gaia–Enceladus Stream and the Helmi stream; aside from these, the local halo stars appear to show a remarkably smooth distribution in velocity space. Since the future Gaia data release will provide radial velocity measurements for only a small number of our sample, our catalogue provides targets of high interest for the future spectroscopic observation programs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

New Modulation and Impact of Transformer Leakage Inductance on Current-Source Solid-State Transformer

This article presents a novel modulation scheme for device voltage stress mitigation and comprehensive analysis of the impact of transformer leakage inductance in a current-source solid-state transformer (SST). Different from dual active bridge (DAB) SST, the operation of the current-source SST is similar to that of a flyback converter. The device bridge on only one side of the transformer is active to store energy into or release energy from the magnetizing inductance which acts as a current-source dc link. Such flyback operation with reverse-blocking switches can lead to additional device voltage stress and incomplete zero-voltage switching (ZVS) on the current-source soft-switching solid-state transformer (S4T) under conventional modulation. A new modulation scheme is proposed to address this issue. Moreover, different from the DAB, the leakage inductance of the medium-frequency transformer (MFT) in the S4T is a parasitic element similar to that in a matrix SST and can cause additional device voltage stress. Though the resonant capacitors, originally added to achieve ZVS, can absorb and recycle the leakage energy in the S4T, these capacitors need to be increased with larger leakage inductances to limit the voltage stress. However, large resonant capacitors can result in more lost duty cycles and reduced efficiency. The impact of such leakage inductance on device voltage stress is analyzed comprehensively, which is critical to guide future research and design of the S4T. Experimental results from S4T prototypes for DC-DC, multiport AC-DC, and AC-AC conversion with 1:1 and 4:1 MFT comprehensively verify the proposed concepts. Lastly, a case study of a three-phase AC-AC S4T over a power range from 1 kVA to 100 kVA each module reveals that the MFT leakage inductance should be less than 1% of the magnetizing inductance for safe operation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Influence of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Cone Angle on the Geometry of Bow Shocks

The frozen-in interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the solar wind is one of the most important parameters affecting the Earth’s space weather. In the early studies of the IMF’s influence on space weather, significant effects of the north–south component of the IMF B {sub Z} were emphasized, while the radial component of the IMF B {sub X} was largely ignored. However, the IMF near the Earth is not always dominated by the north–south component of the IMF B {sub Z}, and the radial component of the IMF B {sub X} also plays an important role. However, while the effects of the IMF B {sub X} (cone angle) on the magnetopause have been studied in recent years, there has been much less effort to quantify the B {sub X} (cone angle) effects on the bow shock. In this paper, using the bow shock crossing data from multiple satellites, we investigate the IMF cone angle effect on the dayside and nightside of the bow shock. Our results show that under the radial IMF condition, the dayside of the bow shock is located closer to the Earth than the average. At the same time, on the nightside, the bow shock is farther away from the Earth than the average. The mechanism explaining the bow shock location under the radial IMF is not completely understood. We believe that the magnetosonic Mach number and unusual conditions of the magnetosheath, especially for low dynamic pressure, play an important role. In the future, more work is needed to describe the reactions of the Earth’s magnetosphere to different IMF orientations, especially to the radial IMF.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulation of Plasma Emission in Magnetized Plasmas

The recent Parker Solar Probe observations of type III radio bursts show that the effects of the finite background magnetic field can be an important factor in the interpretation of data. In the present paper, the effects of the background magnetic field on the plasma-emission process, which is believed to be the main emission mechanism for solar coronal and interplanetary type III radio bursts, are investigated by means of the particle-in-cell simulation method. The effects of the ambient magnetic field are systematically surveyed by varying the ratio of plasma frequency to electron gyrofrequency. The present study shows that for a sufficiently strong ambient magnetic field, the wave–particle interaction processes lead to a highly field-aligned longitudinal mode excitation and anisotropic electron velocity distribution function, accompanied by a significantly enhanced plasma emission at the second-harmonic plasma frequency. For such a case, the polarization of the harmonic emission is almost entirely in the sense of extraordinary mode. On the other hand, for moderate strengths of the ambient magnetic field, the interpretation of the simulation result is less clear. The underlying nonlinear-mode coupling processes indicate that to properly understand and interpret the simulation results requires sophisticated analyses involving interactions among magnetized plasma normal modes, including the two transverse modes of the magneto-active plasma, namely, the extraordinary and ordinary modes, as well as electron-cyclotron-whistler, plasma oscillation, and upper-hybrid modes. At present, a nonlinear theory suitable for quantitatively analyzing such complex-mode coupling processes in magnetized plasmas is incomplete, which calls for further theoretical research, but the present simulation results could provide a guide for future theoretical efforts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GEN3D Experimental and Numerical Development of GEN3 Durability Models

Understanding of the high temperature durability of particles and the materials that contain them is critical to next generation of concentrating solar power (CSP) technology. Here we studied the durability of particles and their containment materials under extreme UV cycling, thermal cycling, and in low-speed high temperature mechanical wear situations. The optical stability of seven candidate particles has been determined following exposure to the high temperature conditions present in a generation 3 particle-based CSP technology. Particle solar weighted absorptance and emittance measured periodically during 10,000 high solar irradiance exposure cycles and up to 400 hours of isothermal aging has been documented. The particle aging due to repeated exposure to concentrated solar flux represented the 30-year lifetime of a power plant. Models were fit to the absorptivity and emissivity data following the isothermal aging provides the projected optical degradation of the particles as a function of temperature. Mechanical wear was studied through the use of custom developed wear testing facilities for measuring high temperature impact wear, abrasion wear, and particle attrition. Additionally, a novel technique for measuring the high temperature mechanical properties of single particles was developed. Through these tests it was observed that high nickel alloys generally showed lower wear than comparable iron based steels, particularly at elevated temperatures of 800°C. Mechanical wear at these temperatures is a highly complex phenomenon combining both mechanical wear and oxidation. Additionally, the containment materials wear rates are influenced by the particles (both hardness and roundness), making the wear mechanisms complex. The initial wear test conducted in the abrasion test rig revealed a substantial amount of oxide materials in the particle bed after testing (in relative to later tests), and substantially more wear, likely indicating a need for concern in startup operation of particle facilities to not incur high wear from the presence of oxides. Particle attrition experiments have only been conducted for a single material but increase size distribution, reduction in circularity, and particle diameter is observed. Efforts to develop predictive models was limited due to a testing campaign that prioritized testing materials for particle pathway developers over building a comprehensive design of experiments. The results discussed in this report inform future CSP developers and researchers further de risking the technology and assisting in its future development. ParticleBased CSP development provides a path to dispatchable solar power generation with storage at a price competitive in the current energy market. Lowering the cost of CSP technology provides a carbon free power generation solution that can assist in the transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of electricity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Semi Transparent Three-Dimensional Macroporous Quaternary Oxynitride Photoanodes for Photoelectrochemical Water Oxidation

Semi transparent three-dimensional macroporous (3DM) photoanodes based on quaternary oxynitrides have the potential to simultaneously realize superior light harvesting and efficient charge transfer in a tandem photoelectrochemical (PEC) cell. A 3DM CaTaO 2 N photoanode was prepared for the first time on a GaN/Al 2 O 3 substrate via a chemical route, and it exhibits a high transmittance of >60% in the wide solar spectrum and a photoresponse onset at −0.3 V versus the reversible hydrogen electrode (V RHE ) under simulated solar illumination. In particular, a plateau photocurrent density of 0.21 mA cm –2 was achieved at a low potential of 0.4 V RHE , which was 1.6-fold and more than 50-fold higher than a two-dimensional macroporous (2DM) CaTaO 2 N/GaN/Al 2 O 3 photoanode and a conventional particle-based CaTaO 2 N/GaN/Al 2 O 3 photoanode, respectively. The bicontinuous, interconnected pore structure within this 3DM film can improve charge carrier separation and collection by reducing the average diffusion distance for minority carriers toward the electrolyte. Optical measurements and simulations verified the enhanced sunlight harvesting in the 3DM photoanode, which was ascribed to the concentrated distribution of the electric field and multiple scattering. Furthermore, this study provides guidance for future synthesis of highly efficient semitransparent 3DM quaternary oxynitride-based photoanodes for a tandem PEC device.

Layers↗

A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗

Formation and interior evolution of Mars

The formation and earliest evolution of Mars involved core formation followed by magma ocean solidification and primordial crust formation. Here, in this study, we review the formation and early interior evolution of Mars as understood through meteorite studies. Martian meteorites exhibit ages that span the entire history of the Solar System, but most derive from compositionally distinct sources that formed early in the history of Mars. Geochemical and isotopic studies of Martian meteorites have provided critical information on Mars’ building blocks, bulk composition, and its differentiation into a core, mantle and crust. Radiogenic isotope systems provide vital insights into the petrogenesis of Martian meteorite source regions and into the nature and timescales of primordial differentiation on Mars. Application of short-lived isotope chronometers to Martian meteorites indicates that the Martian core formed early within <10 million years (Ma), while magma ocean differentiation and crust formation occurred soon thereafter, within the first tens of Ma of Solar System history. Bulk silicate Mars is variably depleted in moderately volatile elements relative to chondrites, but to a lesser extent than the Earth. The nature and evolution of more volatile elements and volatile species on Mars (e.g., H 2 O, C, S, halogens) remains an active area of investigation, but overall suggest that Mars is more enriched in volatile elements than the Moon but less than the Earth. While geochemical exploration of Mars coupled with new discoveries of Martian meteorites has provided a wealth of information, the compositional and lithologic diversity on Mars significantly exceeds that seen in the suites of Martian meteorites currently studied. This implies that our current perspective on the planet's evolution is very likely biased, highlighting the need for future sample return missions to Mars.

Kruijer, Thomas S.↗

A very high energy hadron collider on the Moon

Abstract The long-term prospect of building a hadron collider around the circumference of a great circle of the Moon is sketched. A circular collider on the Moon (CCM) of ∼11 000 km in circumference could reach a proton–proton center-of-mass collision energy of 14 PeV—a thousand times higher than the Large Hadron Collider at CERN—optimistically assuming a dipole magnetic field of 20 T. Several aspects of such a project are presented, including siting, construction, availability of necessary materials on the Moon, and powering, as well as a discussion of future studies and further information needed to determine the more concrete feasibility of each. Machine parameters and vacuum requirements are explored, and an injection scheme is delineated. Other unknowns are set down. Due to the strong interest from multiple organizations in establishing a permanent Moon presence, a CCM could be the (next-to-) next-to-next-generation discovery machine for high-energy particle physics and a natural successor to next-generation machines, such as the proposed future circular collider at CERN or a super proton–proton collider in China, and other future machines, such as a collider in the Sea, in the Gulf of Mexico. A CCM would serve as an important stepping stone toward a Planck-scale collider sited in our Solar System.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗