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At least 325 records · Page 18

Solar Activity and Solar Eruptions

Our Sun is a dynamic, ever-changing star. In general, its atmosphere displays major variation on an 11-year cycle. Throughout the cycle, the atmosphere occasionally exhibits large, sudden outbursts of energy. These "solar eruptions" manifest themselves in the form of solar flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and energetic particle releases. They are of high interest to scientists both because they represent fundamental processes that occur in various astrophysical context, and because, if directed toward Earth, they can disrupt Earth-based systems and satellites. Research over the last few decades has shown that the source of the eruptions is localized regions of energy-storing magnetic field on the Sun that become destabilized, leading to a release of the stored energy. Solar scientists have (probably) unraveled the basic outline of what happens in these eruptions, but many details are still not understood. In recent years we have been studying what triggers these magnetic eruptions, using ground-based and satellite-based solar observations in combination with predictions from various theoretical models. We will present an overview of solar activity and solar eruptions, give results from some of our own research, and discuss questions that remain to be explored.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Pesnell. William Dean↗

New Observations of Solar Plasma Variability from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)

The launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in February 2010 now allows for continuous observations of the Sun on all times scales from seconds to years. The variations in the solar plasma on these time scales cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environments on similar time scales, such as affecting the densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions in the atmospheres of Earth and other planets. Presented and discussed will be examples of initial results from SDO that show how different temperature plasmas (from 50,OOOK to 20MK+), corresponding to different solar features in the solar atmosphere, evolve and change during solar eruptive events. The presentation will emphasize how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), the first satellite in NASA's Living with a Star program, has already improved upon current observations and how it will continue provide further insights into the variable Sun and its Heliospheric influence.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗

Electron Temperature Maps of the Low Solar Corona: ISCORE Results from the Total Solar Eclipse of 1 August 2008 in China

We conducted an experiment in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 1 August 2008 in China to determine the thermal electron temperature in the low solar corona close to the solar limb. The instrument, Imaging Spectrograph of Coronal Electrons (ISCORE), consisted of an 8 inch f/10 Schmidt Cassegrain telescope with a thermoelectrically cooled CCD camera at the focal plane. Results are electron temperatures of 1 MK at 1.08 R(solar system) and 1.13 R(solar system) from the Sun center in the polar and equatorial regions, respectively. This experiment confirms the results of an earlier experiment conducted in conjunction with the total eclipse of 29 March 2006 in Libya, and results are that at a given coronal height the electron temperature in the polar region is larger than at the equatorial region. In this paper we show the importance of using the correct photospheric spectrum pertinent to the solar activity phase at the time of the experiment, which is a required parameter for modeling the underlying theoretical concept for temperature interpretation of the measured intensity ratios using color filters.

Reginald, Nelson L.↗

Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because the physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce, and the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in the differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin model and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the model magnetic fields to sunspot observations to make reliable predictions of a following cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available for only four solar cycles. This raises the question of how limitations in observational data and model uncertainties affect predictive capabilities and implies the need for the development of new forecast methodologies and validation criteria. In this presentation, I will discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

The First Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event Observed By Solar Orbiter on 2020 November 29

Context. On 2020 November 29, the first widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event of solar cycle 25 was observed at four widely separated locations in the inner (. 1AU) heliosphere. Relativistic electrons as well as protons with energies > 50MeV were observed by Solar Orbiter (SolO), Parker Solar Probe (PSP), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A and multiple near-Earth spacecraft. The SEP event was associated with an M4.4 class X-ray flare and accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) and an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wave as well as a type II radio burst and multiple type III radio bursts. Aims. We present multi-spacecraft particle observations and place them in context with source observations from remote sensing instruments and discuss how such observations may further our understanding of particle acceleration and transport in this widespread event. Methods. Velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time shift analysis (TSA) were used to infer the particle release times at the Sun. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements were examined to identify structures that influence the properties of the energetic particles such as their intensity. Pitch angle distributions and first-order anisotropies were analyzed in order to characterize the particle propagation in the interplanetary medium. Results. We find that during the 2020 November 29 SEP event, particles spread over more than 230° in longitude close to 1AU. The particle onset delays observed at the different spacecraft are larger as the flare–footpoint angle increases and are consistent with those from previous STEREO observations. Comparing the timing when the EUV wave intersects the estimated magnetic footpoints of each spacecraft with particle release times from TSA and VDA, we conclude that a simple scenario where the particle release is only determined by the EUV wave propagation is unlikely for this event. Observations of anisotropic particle distributions at SolO, Wind, and STEREO-A do not rule out that particles are injected over a wide longitudinal range close to the Sun. However, the low values of the first-order anisotropy observed by near-Earth spacecraft suggest that diffusive propagation processes are likely involved.

A Kollhoff↗

Quantifying Energy Release in Solar Flares and Solar Eruptive Events

Solar flares and the often associated solar eruptive events serve as an outstanding laboratory to study the magnetic reconnection and the associated energy release and conversion processes under plasma conditions difficult to reproduce in the laboratory, and with considerable spatiotemporal details not possible elsewhere in the universe. In the past decade, thanks to advances in multiwavelength imaging spectroscopy, as well as developments in theories and numerical modeling, significant progress has been made in improving our understanding of solar flare/eruption energy release. In particular, broadband imaging spectroscopy at microwave wavelengths offered by the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA) has enabled the revolutionary capability of measuring the time-evolving coronal magnetic fields at or near the flare reconnection region. However, owing to EOVSA’s limited dynamic range, imaging fidelity, and angular resolution, such measurements can only be done in a region around the brightest source(s) where the signal-to-noise is sufficiently large. In this white paper, after a brief introduction to the outstanding questions and challenges pertinent to magnetic energy release in solar flares and eruptions, we will demonstrate how a next-generation radio facility with many (∼100–200) antenna elements can bring the next revolution by enabling high dynamic range, high fidelity broadband imaging spectropolarimetry along with a sub-second time resolution and arcsecond level angular resolution. We recommend to prioritize the implementation of such a ground-based instrument within this decade. We also call for facilitating multi-wavelength, multi-messenger observations and advanced numerical modeling in order to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the “system science” of solar flares and eruptions.

Bin Chen↗

Prediction and Verification of Parker Solar Probe Solar Wind Sources at 13.3 Rs

Drawing connections between heliospheric spacecraft and solar wind sources is a vital step in understanding the evolution of the solar corona into the solar wind and contextualizing in situ timeseries. Furthermore, making advanced predictions of this linkage for ongoing heliospheric missions, such as Parker Solar Probe (Parker), is necessary for achieving useful coordinated remote observations and maximizing scientific return. The general procedure for estimating such connectivity is straightforward (i.e., magnetic field line tracing in a coronal model) but validating the resulting estimates is difficult due to the lack of an independent ground truth and limited model constraints. In its most recent orbits, Parker has reached perihelia of 13.3R⊙ and moreover travels extremely fast prograde relative to the solar surface, covering over 120° longitude in 3 days. Here we present footpoint predictions and subsequent validation efforts for Parker Encounter 10, the first of the 13.3R⊙ orbits, which occurred in November 2021. We show that the longitudinal dependence of in situ plasma data from these novel orbits provides a powerful method of footpoint validation. With reference to other encounters, we also illustrate that the conditions under which source mapping is most accurate for near-ecliptic spacecraft (such as Parker) occur when solar activity is low, but also require that the heliospheric current sheet is strongly warped by mid-latitude or equatorial coronal holes. Lastly, we comment on the large-scale coronal structure implied by the Encounter 10 mapping, highlighting an empirical equatorial cut of the Alfvèn surface consisting of localized protrusions above unipolar magnetic separatrices.

S. T. Badman↗

Revisiting Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Scaling Relations. I. Solar Flares

Aims. The possible influence of solar superflares on the near-Earth space radiation environment are assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of solar energetic particle (SEP) events with the solar flare soft X-ray peak photon flux. Methods. We compiled a catalog of 65 well-connected (W20-90) SEP events during the last three solar cycles covering a period of ∼34 yr (1984–2020) that were associated with flares of class ≥C6.0, and investigated the statistical relations between the recorded peak proton fluxes (I p ) and the fluences (F p ) at a set of integral energies from E > 10, > 30, and > 60 to > 100 MeV versus the associated solar flare peak soft X-ray flux in the 1–8 Å band (F SXR ). Based on the inferred relations, we calculated the integrated energy dependence of the peak proton flux (I p ) and fluence (F p ) of the SEP events, assuming that they follow an inverse power law with respect to energy. Finally, we made use of simple physical assumptions, combining our derived scaling laws, and estimated the upper limits for I p and F p focusing on the flare associated with the strongest ground level enhancement (GLE) directly observed to date (GLE 05 on 23 February 1956), and that inferred for the cosmogenic radionuclide-based SEP event of AD774/775. Results. A scaling law relating I p and F p to the solar soft X-ray peak intensity (F SXR ) as ∝ F 5/6 SXR for a flare with a F SXR = X600 (in the revised scale) is consistent with values of FP inferred for the cosmogenic nuclide event of AD774/775.

Athanasios Papaioannou↗

Solar plus: A review of the end-user economics of solar PV integration with storage and load control in residential buildings

Batteries and load control devices can increase the value of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) from multiple perspectives - end-user, utility, and social. This review paper summarizes the end-user economics of battery and load control technologies that increase the value of PV by controlling and temporally shifting PV output, an approach referred to as 'solar plus.' Solar plus can increase on-site PV use. The literature shows that these values justify the incremental costs of solar plus devices for a wide variety of technologies, geographies, and customer load profiles, especially for customers in three rate structure contexts: where PV is sold to the grid at a lower value than the customer's retail rate, in time-of-use rates where peak periods do not coincide with PV output, and in demand charge rates where load peaks do not coincide with PV output. Rate structure and policy reform may be necessary to ensure that increasing solar plus deployment provides both end-user and system-level benefits.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Proposal and evaluation of subordinate standard solar irradiance spectra for applications in solar energy systems

Reference solar irradiance spectra are needed to specify key parameters of solar technologies such as photovoltaic cell efficiency, in a comparable way. The IEC 60904-3 and ASTM G173 standards present such spectra for Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) and Global Tilted Irradiance (GTI) on a 37 degrees tilted sun-facing surface for one set of clear-sky conditions with an air mass of 1.5 and low aerosol content. The IEC/G173 standard spectra are the widely accepted references for these purposes. Hence, the authors support the future replacement of the outdated ISO 9845 spectra with the IEC spectra within the ongoing update of this ISO standard. The use of a single reference spectrum per component of irradiance is important for clarity when comparing and rating solar devices such as PV cells. However, at some locations the average spectra can differ strongly from those defined in the IEC/G173 standards due to widely different atmospheric conditions and collector tilt angles. Therefore, additional subordinate standard spectra for other atmospheric conditions and tilt angles are of interest for a rough comparison of product performance under representative field conditions, in addition to using the main standard spectrum for product certification under standard test conditions. This simplifies the product selection for solar power systems when a fully-detailed performance analysis is not feasible (e.g. small installations). Also, the effort for a detailed yield analyses can be reduced by decreasing the number of initial product options. After appropriate testing, this contribution suggests a number of additional spectra related to eight sets of atmospheric conditions and tilt angles that are currently considered within ASTM and ISO working groups. The additional spectra, called subordinate standard spectra, are motivated by significant spectral mismatches compared to the IEC/G173 spectra (up to 6.5%, for PV at 37 degrees tilt and 10-15% for CPV). These mismatches correspond to potential accuracy improvements for a quick estimation of the average efficiency by applying the appropriate subordinate standard spectrum instead of the IEC/G173 spectra. The applicability of these spectra for PV performance analyses is confirmed at five test sites, for which subordinate spectra could be intuitively selected based on the average atmospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) and precipitable water vapor at those locations. The development of subordinate standard spectra for DNI and concentrating solar power (CSP) and concentrating PV (CPV) is also considered. However, it is found that many more sets of atmospheric conditions would be required to allow the intuitive selection of DNI spectra for the five test sites, due in particular to the stronger effect of AOD on DNI compared to GTI. In conclusion, the matrix of subordinate GTI spectra described in this paper are recommended to appear as an option in the annex of future standards, in addition to the obligatory use of the main spectrum from the ASTM G173 and IEC 60904 standards.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Row spacing as a controller of solar module temperature and power output in solar farms

We report that when the temperature of solar photovoltaic modules rises, efficiency drops and module degradation accelerates. The spatial arrangement of solar modules can affect convective cooling and, consequently, module temperatures. However, the impact of row spacing on convective cooling in realistic solar farms has not yet been studied. Here, we develop six solar farm arrangements consisting of a fixed number of rows with varying streamwise row spacing. We model the flow and heat transfer of each solar farm using high-resolution large-eddy simulations. Results indicate that increasing row spacing can enhance convective cooling by 14.8%, which reduces module temperature by 6.6 °C and increases power output by 4.0% on average.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Energy Research Institute for India and the United States (SERIIUS): A Focused Solar Consortium

The Solar Energy Research Institute for India and the United States (SERIIUS - http://www.seriius.org) is dedicated to creating a bi-national network of its 40 partners with members from academia, national laboratories, non-profit organizations, and industry to foster new ideas and collaborations to expedite a sustainable solar industry in the US and in India. SERIIUS is developing disruptive technologies through foundational research in sustainable photovoltaics (PV), multi-scale concentrating solar power (CSP) and coupled to an analysis activity to address the critical barriers for solar energy development in India that intersect the grand challenges for solar energy in the U.S. The consortium has published over 330 papers and conference proceedings of which 45 are joint between India and the US. SERIIUS has engaged overs 200 graduate students and had 30 binational intern exchanges.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enabling Floating Solar Photovoltaic (FPV) Deployment: Exploring the Operational Benefits of Floating Solar-Hydropower Hybrids

The Southeast (SE) Asia region is undergoing rapid energy sector transitions and exploring the potential role of renewables - including solar photovoltaics (PV) - as it becomes increasingly competitive as a result of technological advances and falling capital costs. Low-cost solar PV provides countries in the region with an option to meet increasing energy demand and diversify generation portfolios, complementing hydropower and thermal-dominant systems and strengthening energy security throughout the region. Floating solar PV (FPV) has emerged as an attractive application of solar PV that allows for systems to be floated on water bodies. Pairing FPV in hybrid systems with hydropower may also provide significant value for power systems in the region, beyond oft-cited co-benefits of stand-alone FPV. Despite growing interest in FPV systems, few applications of hybrid FPV-hydropower systems exist in SE Asia, and limited information is available about the co-benefits these systems may provide for potential adopters. This work, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through the Advanced Energy Partnership for Asia, explores the value that hybrid FPV-hydropower systems may provide to the power systems of SE Asian countries. This work on the value of hybrid FPV-hydropower systems is accompanied by a recent report, Creating an Enabling Policy and Regulatory Environment for Floating Solar Photovoltaics: Review of Barriers to FPV Deployment in Southeast Asia, also focused on SE Asia.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Collaborative R&D with REEL Solar Inc (REEL) to Understand and Overcome Performance Limitations in CdTe Solar Cells: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

This CRADA will focus on processing, advanced characterization, and testing of photovoltaic materials and devices to understand and improve REEL CdTe solar technology. This will include examining process variations and different buffer, absorber, and contact layers from REEL and NLR to maximize performance. The unique and diverse advanced characterization tools at NLR, such as time-resolved photoluminescence, capacitance-voltage measurements, electron beam scattered diffraction, cathodoluminescence, electron microscopy, TOF-SIMS, and other measurements will be applied to characterize REEL processing to improve understanding and guide experimental directions. Accelerated stability and potential induced degradation tests will be used to analyze metastability, short-and-long term degradation, and improve bankability. A second and major thrust this period will be joint development of Si/CdTe tandem solar cells to overcome industry wide terrestrial solar efficiency limits with the two lowest cost and manufacturable solar materials today. This will include developing novel transparent back contacts that can be incorporated into tandem structures and other novel solar applications, detailed analysis of designs and configurations for CdTe/Si tandem modules, and prototyping REEL CdTe Technology with Si bottom cells in tandem structures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deep Solar Activity Minimum 2007-2009: Solar Wind Properties and Major Effects on the Terrestrial Magnetosphere

We discuss the temporal variations and frequency distributions of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters during the solar minimum of 2007 - 2009 from measurements returned by the IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments on STEREO-A.We find that the density and total field strength were significantly weaker than in the previous minimum. The Alfven Mach number was higher than typical. This reflects the weakness of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) forces, and has a direct effect on the solar wind-magnetosphere interactions.We then discuss two major aspects that this weak solar activity had on the magnetosphere, using data from Wind and ground-based observations: i) the dayside contribution to the cross-polar cap potential (CPCP), and ii) the shapes of the magnetopause and bow shock. For i) we find a low interplanetary electric field of 1.3+/-0.9 mV/m and a CPCP of 37.3+/-20.2 kV. The auroral activity is closely correlated to the prevalent stream-stream interactions. We suggest that the Alfven wave trains in the fast streams and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability were the predominant agents mediating the transfer of solar wind momentum and energy to the magnetosphere during this three-year period. For ii) we determine 328 magnetopause and 271 bow shock crossings made by Geotail, Cluster 1, and the THEMIS B and C spacecraft during a three-month interval when the daily averages of the magnetic and kinetic energy densities attained their lowest value during the three years under survey.We use the same numerical approach as in Fairfield's empirical model and compare our findings with three magnetopause models. The stand-off distance of the subsolar magnetopause and bow shock were 11.8 R(sub E) and 14.35 R(sub E), respectively. When comparing with Fairfield's classic result, we find that the subsolar magnetosheath is thinner by approx. 1 R(sub E). This is mainly due to the low dynamic pressure which results in a sunward shift of the magnetopause. The magnetopause is more flared than in Fairfield's model. By contrast the bow shock is less flared, and the latter is the result of weaker MHD forces.

solar minimum↗

Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Event Peak Proton Intensity Using a Simple Algorithm Based on CME Speed and Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the peak intensity of 14- to 24-MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (85%)of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with 1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997-2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.

coronal mass ejections↗