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At least 325 records · Page 18

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗

All-Atom Modeling and Simulation of Biopolymer Interface: Dual Role of Antifouling Polymer Brushes

Antifouling polymer brushes are well-known for their exceptional resistance to unwanted protein adsorption. While experimental studies have extensively characterized protein–polymer brush interactions, computational investigations remain limited, largely due to the challenges in accurately modeling and integrating these complex, multicomponent systems without resorting to oversimplification. To address this challenge, this study presents one of the most comprehensive and realistic model systems to date, comprising the substrate, grafted polymers, and proteins. Our work interprets the interactions between polymer brush and protein based on realistic modeling without simplification. In particular, this study utilizes molecular modeling and simulation of polycationic and polyzwitterionic brushes─poly(dimethylaminoethyl methacrylate) (PDMAEMA), poly(2-(N-oxide-N,N-dimethylamino)ethyl methacrylate) (PNOMA), and poly(2-(N-3-sulfopropyl-N,N-dimethylammonium)ethyl methacrylate) (PSBMA)─grafted onto α-quartz substrates via polymerization initiator linkers. The brush models were developed to closely replicate experimentally synthesized samples and to provide detailed insights into structural and dynamical changes at the molecular level during protein adsorption. Using steered molecular dynamics simulations, we show that the PSBMA brush, due to its high local density, exhibits the greatest resistance to protein insertion. Cα root-mean-square deviation and interaction pattern analyses further reveal that the PSBMA brush also induces the most significant destabilization of lysozyme, while the PDMAEMA brush enhances protein stability through ion-mediated interactions. The PNOMA brush, while requiring the lowest force for protein adsorption, induces greater protein destabilization than the PDMAEMA brush, primarily due to electrostatic repulsion caused by a short carbon spacer length. Hydration analysis reveals that both the PSBMA brush and the lysozyme interacting with it exhibit the most rapid dehydration, attributed to the brush’s high local chain density, which results in the greatest lysozyme destabilization and the highest adsorption force. These findings highlight the dual role of antifouling polymer brushes: resisting protein adsorption and modulating protein structural dynamics. In conclusion, this study provides valuable insights for the rational design of next-generation antifouling materials and offers a framework for realistic model development in complex multicomponent systems.

Adsorption↗

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermal Performance of Spandrel Assemblies in Glazed Wall Systems: Laboratory Test Design – Challenges and Test Results

Accurate thermal performance calculation procedures for opaque spandrel areas in curtain wall and window wall systems are essential for rating systems when comparing spandrel systems. However, there is a lack of consensus in thermal modeling needed for accurately characterizing heat transfer through spandrel assemblies due to the complex arrangement of materials and structural components. Several studies indicate that conventional 2D thermal simulations may overestimate R-values by 30% compared to physical testing and 3D simulations. Detailed simulations and well-curated laboratory test data are necessary to build confidence in simulation models, which will later be used to develop correlations to improve widely used conventional 2D thermal simulations. This study aims to experimentally test heat transfer through various spandrel assemblies to validate 3D simulation models. Also, the challenges of conducting a thorough testing design along with the solutions would be documented. The team developed a design for testing spandrel assemblies, making appropriate modifications to the existing heat, air, and moisture (HAM) chamber to accommodate the testing needs. Two moveable baffles were designed and fabricated to guide airflow direction parallel to the test article surface. The data acquisition capabilities in the chamber were upgraded to add more than two hundred sensors to the climate and indoor side of the chamber. The goal is to provide a quality dataset for validating complex 3D modeling simulations, which will be used to develop improved thermal simulation techniques that more accurately represent the thermal behavior of spandrel assemblies and their integration within the building envelope. This paper will summarize the results for the boundary conditions of the testing and the temperature variation across different locations of the spandrel assemblies.

Kunwar, Niraj [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000263457652)↗

Prototype-Wise Sensitivity Analysis of Urban Building Energy Simulation Surrogate Modeling Accuracy

Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) is an important reference for urban energy-related policymaking. Because of the significant impact of urban microclimates on the energy simulation, UBEM requires simulations of many microclimate-prototype pairs. Surrogate modeling is commonly used to reduce the cost of simulation computations. In UBEM surrogate modeling, it is important to determine the percentage of microclimates related to a prototype used for generating surrogate model training data. This study analyzes the prototype-wise variations and sensitivities of surrogate model estimation accuracy to the microclimate sampling ratios. The results of the study can help determine the number of simulations used for generating surrogate modeling data, avoid redundant simulations, and reduce the computational cost for UBEM surrogate modeling and its time.

Pan, Xiyu↗

Agent-based simulation and child protection systems: Rationale, implementation, and verification

Simulation models are an important tool used in health care and other disciplines to support operational research and decision-making. In the child protection literature, simulation models are an under-utilized source of research evidence. Here, in this paper, we describe the rationale for and the development of an agent-based simulation of a child protection system in the US. Using the investigation, prevention service, and placement histories of 600,000 children served in an urban child welfare system, we walk the reader through the development of a prototype known as OSPEDALE. The governing equations built into OSPEDALE probabilistically simulate the onset of investigations. Then, drawing from empirical survival distributions, the governing equations trace the probability of subsequent interactions with the system (recurrence of maltreatment, service referrals, and placement) conditional on the characteristics of children, their assessed risk level, and prior child protection system involvement. As an initial test of OSPEDALE's utility, we compare empirical admission counts with counts generated from OSPEDALE. Though the verification step is admittedly simple, the comparison shows that OSPEDALE replicates the empirical count of new admissions closely enough to justify further investment in OSPEDALE. Management of public child protection systems is increasingly research evidence-dependent. The emphasis on research evidence as a decision-support tool has elevated evidence acquired through randomized clinical trials. Though important, the evidence from clinical trials represents only one type of research evidence. Properly specified, simulation models are another source of evidence with real-world relevance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Smart Proxy Modeling Application of Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning in Computational Fluid Dynamics

Smart proxy technology leverages the art of artificial intelligence and machine learning in order to build accurate and very fast proxy models for highly complex numerical simulation models. In this project, smart proxy technology is used to replicate the results of a highly complex single phase CFD simulation with reasonable degree of accuracy while reducing the computational cost associated with such CFD simulations. The CFD model under study simulates the combustion of natural gas under various conditions such as varying natural gas composition and flow rate, inlet air flow rate and temperature, and outlet pressure in a High-Pressure Combustion Facility (B6 Combustor) with more than 4 million simulation cells. Only eight CFD simulation runs were used to create a smart proxy model that replicates the detail distribution of Pressure, Temperature, Nitrogen, Oxygen and Carbon-dioxide concentration in the CFD simulation model in seconds with less than 10% error.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Generative models for simulation of KamLAND-Zen

Abstract The next generation of searches for neutrinoless double beta decay ($$0 \nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β ) are poised to answer deep questions on the nature of neutrinos and the source of the Universe’s matter–antimatter asymmetry. They will be looking for event rates of less than one event per ton of instrumented isotope per year. To claim discovery, accurate and efficient simulations of detector events that mimic$$0 \nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β is critical. Traditional Monte Carlo (MC) simulations can be supplemented by machine-learning-based generative models. This work describes the performance of generative models that we designed for monolithic liquid scintillator detectors like KamLAND to produce accurate simulation data without a predefined physics model. We present their current ability to recover low-level features and perform interpolation. In the future, the results of these generative models can be used to improve event classification and background rejection by providing high-quality abundant generated data.

Physics↗

Modeling and simulation of vascular tumors embedded in evolving capillary networks

Here in this work, we present a coupled 3D–1D model of solid tumor growth within a dynamically changing vascular network to facilitate realistic simulations of angiogenesis. Additionally, the model includes erosion of the extracellular matrix, interstitial flow, and coupled flow in blood vessels and tissue. We employ continuum mixture theory with stochastic Cahn–Hilliard type phase-field models of tumor growth. The interstitial flow is governed by a mesoscale version of Darcy’s law. The flow in the blood vessels is controlled by Poiseuille flow, and Starling’s law is applied to model the mass transfer in and out of blood vessels. The evolution of the network of blood vessels is orchestrated by the concentration of the tumor angiogenesis factors (TAFs); blood vessels grow towards the increasing TAFs concentrations. This process is not deterministic, allowing random growth of blood vessels and, therefore, due to the coupling of nutrients in tissue and vessels, makes the growth of tumors stochastic. We demonstrate the performance of the model by applying it to a variety of scenarios. Numerical experiments illustrate the flexibility of the model and its ability to generate satellite tumors. Simulations of the effects of angiogenesis on tumor growth are presented as well as sample-independent features of cancer.

3D–1D coupled blood flow models↗

Extended quantitative rescattering model for simulating high-order harmonic streaking spectra by synchronization of an intense IR laser and a time-delayed attosecond XUV pulse

In this work, we theoretically investigate the modulated high-harmonic generation (HHG) driven by an intense few-cycle infrared (IR) laser field and a weak extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) pulse at a delayed time. We establish an extended quantitative rescattering (EQRS) model to simulate the HHG streaking spectra, with the ideas of correcting the IR ionization and the transition from the ground to continuum states in the strong-field approximation. The EQRS model has an accuracy comparable to that from “exactly” solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation (TDSE). We reveal that the fringes in the streaking spectra are caused by the interference between the attosecond XUV pulse and harmonics resulting from different recombination pathways under the intense IR laser. We then demonstrate that the XUV pulse can be accurately retrieved by treating the single-atom TDSE results or macroscopic propagation results as the “input” data. This work provides with a tool for efficiently simulating and thoroughly analyzing the XUV-assisted HHG, which could also enhance its capability for tracing the electron dynamics involved in the strong-field phenomena.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evaluation of the Energy, Hygrothermal, and Thermal Capacity Performance of Cross-Laminated Timber

Cross-laminated timber (CLT) construction is gaining momentum in the US because it offers multiple advantages over traditional construction methods. Benefits that have received the most attention focus on constructability, the environment, and protection (e.g., blast resistance), although CLT construction is likely to offer other benefits, as well. Still, these have not been studied at length because such evaluations are costly, requiring long-term assessments in an actual building and specialized technical knowledge. Among the possible benefits, CLT construction likely provides a higher-performing building envelope. Using CLT panels to enclose a building means fewer joints in the opaque envelope than what is required in traditional stick-framed construction. Fewer joints mean fewer locations where the air- and water-resistive barrier (WRB) could be compromised; thus, a CLT building enclosure may require less maintenance and have a longer lifespan than a traditionally built structure because of fewer air and water leaks. In addition, CLT’s thermal mass moderates indoor temperatures, allowing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to operate more efficiently during peak hours, reducing operational energy consumption throughout the lifetime of the CLT building (Salonvaara et al., 2022). Furthermore, more stable indoor temperatures can increase occupant comfort. The CLT’s thermal mass can also reduce energy costs by adjusting to utility time-of-use pricing without affecting occupant comfort. The ability of CLT buildings to bridge periods without HVAC operation prepares them for future grid interaction and provides a certain level of resilience against power outages. Researchers have attempted to quantify these benefits; however, their work is based on simplified simulations with numerous assumptions. To correctly understand the benefits, an actual building must be monitored. Therefore, information needs to be gathered on indoor and outdoor temperatures, HVAC energy consumption, thermostat setpoints, temperatures, and thermal transport in CLT components to comprehend how these parameters are affected by the CLT’s thermal mass. These data are needed to reduce the number of assumptions and calibrate simulation models to optimize HVAC controls to minimize overall energy consumption, reduce energy use and higher fees during peak demand, and maintain occupant comfort. Additionally, the calibrated simulation model allows the optimization exercise to be repeated in various US climates. Potential benefits can be tailored to buildings in various locations, and decisions can be made on where CLT construction could be most advantageous. Furthermore, monitoring and simulation results are needed to evaluate the durability of the CLT structures in different climates. This project’s researchers gathered information to help understand and quantify the benefits of CLT buildings concerning operational energy, moderated indoor temperatures, and comfort; the dynamic operation to provide grid services; and resilience in times of power outage. Through the corroboration of simulation models with real-world measurements, this study paves the way for extrapolating findings to other climatic zones and building typologies, thereby broadening the understanding of CLT’s multifaceted benefits and reinforcing its position as a material of choice in sustainable construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Pathway for the Development of Advanced Reactor Mechanistic Source Term Modeling and Simulation Capabilities

Source term analysis, or the estimation of the potential radionuclide release to the environment during reactor events, is a central focus of the reactor licensing process and a vital part of risk-informed reactor design approaches. A mechanistic source term (MST) analysis is designed to realistically model the release and transport of radionuclides from the source to the environment for specific scenarios, while accounting for retention or transmutation phenomena and associated uncertainties. The objective of MST analyses, in comparison to bounding or conservative source term assessments, is to provide a non-biased representation of reactor risk and improve the information available for siting, emergency planning, and reactor design decisions. In support of the advanced reactor community in its pursuit of MST analysis capabilities, this work outlines a recommended research pathway for the development of MST modeling and simulation (mod/sim) tools.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the circular economy: Lessons learned and path forward

Circular economy aims at decoupling human activities from resource use and creating wealth. However, many have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in several methodological approaches being developed to answer that question. This article analyzes and discusses the insights gained from applying agent-based modeling and simulation to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability. This article analyzes the benefits and limitations of this technology and discusses future methodology developments within the circular economy context. Moreover, six limits of the circular economy concept are used to interpret insights from the literature: thermodynamic limits, system boundary limits, limits posed by the physical scale of the economy, limits posed by path dependencies and lock-in, limits of governance and management, and limits of social and cultural definitions. Promising research avenues are to use this methodology with machine learning, industrial ecology methods, and detailed geographic information.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Functional Requirements for the Modeling and Simulation of Advanced (Non-LWR) Reactor Mechanistic Source Term

A number of industry vendors are leading a resurgence in advanced reactor development. As the assurance of public safety from the accidental release of radionuclides to the environment is central to regulatory licensing and the reactor design process, the development of a mechanistic source term (MST) assessment has been identified by the advanced reactor industry as a foremost priority. In contrast to historic light-water reactor (LWR) source term analysis efforts, an MST attempts to realistically model the release and transport of radionuclides from the source to the environment for specific scenarios, while accounting for retention or transmutation phenomena and associated uncertainties. This work seeks to aid in the development of MST modeling and simulation tools by performing a preliminary identification of functional requirements for the major advanced reactor types.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Characterizing Turbulence at a Forest Edge: Comparing Sub-Filter Scale Turbulence Models in Simulations of Flow over a Canopy

In wildfires, atmospheric turbulence plays a major role in the transfer of turbulent kinetic energy. Understanding how turbulence feeds back into a dynamical system is important, down to the varying small scales of fuel structures (i.e. pine needles, grass). Large eddy simulations (LES) are a common way of numerically representing turbulence. The Smagorinsky model (1963) serves as one of the most studied sub-grid scale representations in LES. In this investigation, the Smagorinsky model was implemented in HIGRAD/FIRETEC, LANL’s coupled fire-atmosphere model. This study was motivated by the need to quantitatively investigate the vorticity budget equation in HIGRAD/FIRETEC. The Smagorinsky turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was compared to FIRETEC’s 1.5-order TKE eddy-viscosity subgrid-scale model, known as the Linn turbulence model. This was done in simulations of flow over flat terrain with a homogeneous, cuboidal canopy in the center of the domain. Examinations of the modeled vertical TKE profile and turbulent statistics at the leading edge, and throughout the canopy, show that the Smagorinsky model provides comparable results to that of the original closure model posed in FIRETEC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Constructing Neural Network Based Models for Simulating Dynamical Systems

Dynamical systems see widespread use in natural sciences like physics, biology, and chemistry, as well as engineering disciplines such as circuit analysis, computational fluid dynamics, and control. For simple systems, the differential equations governing the dynamics can be derived by applying fundamental physical laws. However, for more complex systems, this approach becomes exceedingly difficult. Data-driven modeling is an alternative paradigm that seeks to learn an approximation of the dynamics of a system using observations of the true system. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in applying data-driven modeling techniques to solve a wide range of problems in physics and engineering. Here this article provides a survey of the different ways to construct models of dynamical systems using neural networks. In addition to the basic overview, we review the related literature and outline the most significant challenges from numerical simulations that this modeling paradigm must overcome. Based on the reviewed literature and identified challenges, we provide a discussion on promising research areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Transport and chemistry of isoprene and its oxidation products in deep convective clouds

Deep convective clouds can transport trace gases from the planetary boundary layer into the upper troposphere where subsequent chemistry may impact aerosol particle formation and growth. In this modelling study, we investigate processes that affect isoprene and its oxidation products injected into the upper troposphere by an isolated deep convective cloud in the Amazon. We run a photochemical box model with coupled cloud microphysics along hundreds of individual air parcel trajectories sampled from a cloud-resolving model simulation of a convective event. The box model simulates gas-phase chemical reactions, gas scavenging by liquid and ice hydrometeors, and turbulent dilution inside a deep convective cloud. The results illustrate the potential importance of gas uptake to anvil ice in regulating the intensity of the isoprene oxidation and associated low volatility organic vapour concentrations in the outflow. Isoprene transport and fate also depends on the abundance of lightning-generated nitrogen oxide radicals (NO x = NO + NO 2 ). If gas uptake on ice is efficient and lightning activity is low, around 30% of the boundary layer isoprene will survive to the cloud outflow after approximately one hour of transport, while all the low volatile oxidation products will be scavenged by the cloud hydrometeors. If lightning NO x is abundant and gas uptake by ice is inefficient, then all isoprene will be oxidised during transport or in the immediate outflow region, while several low volatility isoprene oxidation products will have elevated concentrations in the cloud outflow. Reducing uncertainties associated with the uptake of vapours on ice hydrometeors, especially HO 2 and oxygenated organics, is essential to improve predictions of isoprene and its oxidation products in deep convective outflows and their potential contribution to new particle formation and growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗