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At least 325 records · Page 18

Dynamic Triggering of Mud Volcano Eruptions During the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence: Triggering of mud volcano eruptions

On 24 August 2016 a seismic event (Mw6.0) was the first of the long Central Italy sequence (ongoing at the end of 2017) of medium-to-high magnitude earthquakes, with nine Mw≥5 up to October 2017, and with about 74.000 seismic events registered after 1 year. The largest was the Mw6.5 30 October 2016 event near Norcia. After the major seismic events, 17 mud volcanoes erupted around Monteleone di Fermo village (Marche region). Mud volcano eruptions generally occurred a few hours to a few days after the main earthquakes, suggesting a seismic triggering. We analyzed the peak ground velocities and dynamic stresses during the three largest earthquakes. We also evaluated the static stress changes in order to assess the potential influence of normal stress changes on the feeder system of the activated mud volcanoes. We find a correlation with dynamic stresses, whereas static stress changes are negligible or negative (with values reaching -0.44 bar, clamping feeder dykes). We conclude that seismic shaking (up to ~3.9 bar during Norcia earthquake) is the dominant driver for these eruptions. Finally, we evaluated the response ratio as a function of the dynamic stress. It increases exponentially with peak dynamic stress varying from <10% for peak dynamic stress >0.3 bar to >50% for peak dynamic stress >2 bar, indicating a link between earthquake shaking and mud volcano activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Reducing Disk Storage of Full-3D Seismic Waveform Tomography (F3DT) Through Lossy Online Compression

Full-3D seismic waveform tomography (F3DT) is the latest seismic tomography technique that can assimilate broadband, multi-component seismic waveform observations into high-resolution 3D subsurface seismic structure models. The main drawback in the current F3DT implementation, in particular the scattering-integral implementation (F3DT-SI), is the high disk storage cost and the associated I/O overhead of archiving the 4D space-time wavefields of the receiver- or source-side strain tensors. The strain tensor fields are needed for computing the data sensitivity kernels, which are used for constructing the Jacobian matrix in the Gauss-Newton optimization algorithm. In this study, we have successfully integrated a lossy compression algorithm into our F3DT SI workflow to significantly reduce the disk space for storing the strain tensor fields. The compressor supports a user-specified tolerance for bounding the error, and can be integrated into our finite-difference wave-propagation simulation code used for computing the strain fields. The decompressor can be integrated into the kernel calculation code that reads the strain fields from the disk and compute the data sensitivity kernels. During the wave-propagation simulations, we compress the strain fields before writing them to the disk. To compute the data sensitivity kernels, we read the compressed strain fields from the disk and decompress them before using them in kernel calculations. Experiments using a realistic dataset in our California statewide F3DT project have shown that we can reduce the strain-field disk storage by at least an order of magnitude with acceptable loss, and also improve the overall I/O performance of the entire F3DT-SI workflow significantly. The integration of the lossy online compressor may potentially open up the possibilities of the wide adoption of F3DT-SI in routine seismic tomography practices in the near future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effects of the distribution and evolution of the coefficient of friction along a fault on the assessment of the seismic activity associated with a hypothetical industrial-scale geologic CO 2 sequestration operation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in geological formations is considered as a promising option that could limit CO 2 emissions from human activities into the atmosphere. However, there is a risk that pressure buildup inside the storage formation can induce slip along preexisting faults and create seismic event felt by the population. To prevent this to happen a geomechanical fault stability analysis should be performed, considering uncertainties of input parameters. In this paper, we investigate how the distribution of the coefficient of friction and the applied frictional law could influence the assessment of fault stability and the characteristics of potential injection-induced seismic events. Our modelling study is based on a hypothetical industrial-scale carbon sequestration project located in the Southern San Joaquin Basin in California, USA, where the stability on a major (25 km long) fault that bounds the sequestration site is assessed during 50 years of CO 2 injection. We conduct nine simulations in which the distributions of the coefficients of static and dynamic friction are changed to simulate a hardening and softening phase before and during rupture. Here, our main findings are: (i) variations in friction along the fault have an important effect on the predicted seismic activity, with maximum magnitude ranging from 1.88 to 5.88 and number of seismic events ranging from 338 to 3272; (ii) the extreme values of the coefficient of friction (lowest and highest) present along the rupture area control how much stress is accumulated before rupture; and (iii) an argillaceous caprock can prevent the development of large magnitude seismic events but favor the occurrence of a large number of smaller events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic response of vertical dry storage casks under three-dimensional earthquake motions

Ensuring the long-term seismic safety of dry storage casks (DSCs) is becoming increasingly critical as these systems evolve from temporary to de facto permanent repositories for spent nuclear fuels. Traditional seismic soil–structure interaction (SSI) assessment methods use one-dimensional deconvolution or simplified boundary conditions to model incident waves. Although computationally appealing, simplifying assumptions may alter the seismic risk by neglecting the full complexity of three-dimensional (3D) wave propagation effects. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel high-fidelity computational framework that leverages the Domain Reduction Method (DRM) with perfectly matched layers (PML) to accurately transfer complex, 3D seismic wavefields from regional-scale fault-rupture simulations into local-scale finite element models of DSCs. Using broadband, physics-based ground motions from a generic M w 7.0 strike-slip event, both single-cask and multi-cask configurations were investigated under near- and far-field conditions. Emphasis is placed on capturing complex SSI, spatial variability in the ground motion, and nonlinear phenomena such as cask rocking and sliding. Numerical results demonstrate that near-field conditions, where forward directivity and fling-step effects dominate, lead to significantly higher DSC rocking and sliding. Far-field cases, by contrast, generally exhibit modest responses. Incorporating SSI tends to amplify or alter DSC response spectra and introduce response variability, which underscores the need for site-specific evaluations and robust modeling approaches to ensure the seismic integrity of DSCs in interim spent fuel storage installations.

Das, Tonmoy↗

Precambrian Crystalline Basement Properties From Pressure History Matching and Implications for Induced Seismicity in the US Midcontinent

Injection-induced seismicity across the US midcontinent has almost exclusively occurred in the crystalline basement that underlies the Arbuckle Group aquifer and its equivalents, the primary wastewater disposal zone in this region. However, the properties of the basement are not well known. Newly compiled data, from Class I wells in Kansas, provide a unique record of pressures in the Arbuckle and an opportunity to constrain the reservoir-scale properties of the basement such as permeability, diffusivity, and specific storage. Constraints on these parameters are critical for modeling fluid flow and pressures across the entire Arbuckle-basement system, and are necessary for accurate evaluation and prediction of injection-induced earthquakes. Here, we present a detailed, three-dimensional geological and pressure history-matched numerical model for the Arbuckle and basement, based on data from >400 wells covering a large region in south-central Kansas, where injection-induced seismicity has been concentrated since 2014. Simulations of dynamic data from 319 wells indicate that Arbuckle pressures have increased by 1.1 MPa in high injection rate areas and an overpressure of <0.1 MPa may be the cause of seismicity in the basement. Pressure-history matching also yields the likely range in porosity (0.3%–7%), permeability (0.1–0.7 mD), and diffusivity (0.004–0.07 m2 /s) for the basement. The resulting estimates suggest reservoir-scale properties of the basement are enhanced by faults and fractures. Importantly, the diffusivities determined in this study are lower than estimates derived from Kansas earthquake triggering fronts, and suggest that such seismicity-based techniques may have limitations, particularly where spacetime patterns between injection and seismicity are complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Uplift and Seismicity Driven by Magmatic Inflation at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos Islands

Abstract Although episodes of surface uplift and elevated seismicity precede many volcanic eruptions, their temporal evolution is often complex, and apparently in contradiction to simple trends predicted by mechanical deformation models. Here, we use continuous global positioning system and seismic data recorded at Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands, to show how the edifice responded to stress changes driven by magma accumulation in a shallow sill. The rate of uplift varied during the 13 years and 6.5 m of inflation before the 2018 eruption. The number of earthquakes per unit of uplift increased exponentially with total uplift as the differential stress increased. Accordingly, the temporal seismicity rate varied in time as a function of both the total uplift and the uplift rate. The Gutenberg‐Richter b ‐value decreased as a function of total uplift. In the final six months before the eruption, a sequence of large ( M > 4) earthquakes regulated the state of stress on the fault, each being followed by 2–3 days of postseismic quiescence, and retarding the increase in seismicity rate. These earthquakes did not affect the overall uplift rate. Subsidence of 8.5 m accompanied the 2‐month eruption. On resumption of uplift, the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift was very low, and the b ‐value high, reflecting the relaxed stress state of the fault system. These observations show that crustal deformation becomes increasingly brittle at higher stress states, and supports theoretical models based on elastic‐brittle mechanics. They suggest that joint interpretation of deformation and seismicity is key for forecasting future eruptions in similar volcanic settings.

Bell, Andrew Forbes↗

Small-Magnitude Seismic Swarms in Central Utah (US): Interactions of Regional Tectonics, Local Structures and Hydrothermal Systems

Swarms in Central Utah are situated in the complex transition between the Basin and Range (BR) province and the Colorado Plateau. Transecting transverse structures, volcanic deposits, and hydrothermal systems complicate the extensional BR horst and graben structures and provide a multitude of plausible triggering mechanisms. Revisiting the catalog of the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (1981–2022), we analyze spatio-temporal patterns and characteristic features of seismic sequences. Swarms with alternating seismicity rates, bursts, and longer swarms with persistent moment release exhibit a remarkable diversity in temporal evolution. Swarm durations do not scale with cumulative seismic moment: swarms lasting less than 1 day can have similar cumulative seismic moments as month-long swarms. Here, we observe stationary swarms re-occurring for years (e.g., Mineral Mountains), as well as singular swarms in low-seismicity areas (e.g., activating a local structure). The swarms show a pronounced heterogeneity in triggering and driving mechanisms, observed in the detailed analysis of exemplary sequences (detections, relocations, moment tensors, waveform-based clustering, and repeater analysis). The 2022 Sevier Valley sequence activated a BR-related normal fault, the first resolved fault plane in the valley since 1983. The 2011 Circleville sequence is interpreted as a swarm triggered by mainshock-aftershock activity characterized by increasing magnitudes, changing rupture mechanisms, and a concentration of highly similar events in the second part of the sequence. By jointly discussing exemplary sequences and catalog statistics, we draw a comprehensive picture of swarm activity and its relation to geothermal and tectonic activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Frequency Domain Methodology for Quantitative Evaluation of Diffuse Wavefield With Applications to Seismic Imaging

Abstract Ambient Noise Imaging (ANI) of subsurface structures relies on seismic interferometry of diffuse seismic wavefields. However, the lack of effective methods to quantify and identify highly diffuse waves hampers applications of ANI, particularly in evaluating seismic attenuation and monitoring structural changes with high temporal resolution. Conventional ANI approaches require data normalization, which effectively suppresses the non‐diffuse component with large amplitude but also results in significant loss of amplitude and phase information in the continuous seismic records. In this study, we propose a frequency domain method to quantitatively evaluate the degree of diffuseness of seismic wavefields by analyzing their statistical characteristics of modal amplitudes for stationarity and randomness. Tests on synthetic waveform and field nodal records show that the proposed method can effectively distinguish between diffuse and non‐diffuse waveforms for either single‐ or three‐component data. As an application, we identify a 60‐s‐long diffuse coda of a local M 2.2 earthquake recorded by a dense nodal array on the San Jacinto Fault Zone, and successfully extract high‐quality dispersion curve andQ‐value without performing data normalization. These results are consistent with those obtained by conventional methods that assess the correlation between coherency and the Green's function, and by modeling ballistic waves generated by road traffic. Our proposed method can advance the imaging of subsurface velocity and attenuation structures as well as monitoring temporal changes for scientific studies and engineering applications.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Energy of injection-induced seismicity predicted from in-situ experiments

The ability to predict the magnitude of an earthquake caused by deep fluid injections is an important factor for assessing the safety of the reservoir storage and the seismic hazard. Here, we propose a new approach to evaluate the seismic energy released during fluid injection by integrating injection parameters, induced aseismic deformation, and the distance of earthquake sources from injection. We use data from ten injection experiments performed at a decameter scale into fault zones in limestone and shale formations. We observe that the seismic energy and the hydraulic energy similarly depend on the injected fluid volume (V), as they both scale as V 3/2 . They show, however, a large discrepancy, partly related to a large aseismic deformation. Therefore, to accurately predict the released seismic energy, aseismic deformation should be considered in the budget through the residual deformation measured at the injection. Alternatively, the minimal hypocentral distance from injection points and the critical fluid pressure for fault reactivation can be used for a better prediction of the seismic moment in the total compilation of earthquakes observed during these experiments. Complementary to the prediction based only on the injected fluid volume, our approach opens the possibility of using alternative monitoring parameters to improve traffic-light protocols for induced earthquakes and the regulation of operational injection activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Inverting seismic data for rock physical properties; Mathematical background and application

The basic concept behind seismic inversion is that mathematical assumptions can be established to relate seismic to geological formation properties that caused their seismic responses. In this presentation we address some widely used seismic inversion method in hydrocarbon reservoirs identification and characterization. A successful use of the inversion in real example from gas sand reservoir in Boonsville field, Noth Central Texas is presented. Seismic data was not unambiguous indicator of reservoir facies distribution. The use of the inversion led to remove the ambiguity and reveal clear information about the target.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A viscoelastic model for seismic attenuation using fractal mechanical networks

SUMMARY Seismic attenuation (quantified by the quality factor Q) has a significant impact on the seismic waveforms, especially in the fluid-saturated rocks. This dissipative process can be phenomenologically represented by viscoelastic models. Previous seismological studies show that the Q value of Earth media exhibits a nearly frequency-independent behaviour (often referred to as constant-Q in literature) in the seismic frequency range. Such attenuation can be described by the mathematical Kjartansson constant-Q model, which lacks of a physical representation in the viscoelastic sense. Inspired by the fractal nature of the pore fluid distribution in patchy-saturated rocks, here we propose two fractal mechanical network (FMN) models, that is, a fractal tree model and a quasi-fractal ladder model, to phenomenologically represent the frequency-independent Q behaviour. As with the classic viscoelastic models, the FMN models are composed of mechanical elements (spring and dashpots) arranged in different hierarchical patterns. A particular parametrization of each model can produce the same complex modulus as in the Kjartansson model, which leads to the constant-Q. Applying the theory to several typical rock samples, we find that the seismic attenuation signature of these rocks can be accurately represented by either one of the FMN models. Besides, we demonstrate that the ladder model in particular exhibits the realistic multiscale fractal structure of the saturated rocks. Therefore, the FMN models as a proxy could provide a new way to estimate the microscopic rock structure property from macroscopic seismic attenuation observation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Sensitivity of Seismically Cued Antineutrino Detectors to Nuclear Explosions

Here, we evaluate the sensitivity of large gadolinium-doped water detectors to antineutrinos released by nuclear-fission explosions, using updated signal and background models and taking advantage of the capacity for seismic observations to provide an analysis trigger. Under certain realistic conditions, the antineutrino signature of a 250-kton pure-fission explosion could be identified several hundred kilometers away, in a detector about the size of the largest module currently proposed for a basic physics experiment. In principle, such an observation could provide rapid confirmation that the seismic signal coincided with a fission event, possibly useful for international monitoring of nuclear-weapon tests. We discuss the limited potential for seismically cued antineutrino observations to constrain fission yield, differentiate pure fission from fusion-enhanced weapon tests, indicate that the seismic evidence of an explosion had been intentionally masked, or verify the absence of explosive testing in a targeted area. We conclude that advances in seismic monitoring and neutrino physics have made the detection of explosion-derived antineutrinos more conceivable than previously asserted, but the size and cost of sufficiently sensitive detectors continue to limit applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) is an open-source toolkit developed as part of the US Department of Energy SMART and NRAP programs. ORION is designed to help both expert and non-expert users understand the seismic hazard at a site. This tool analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection of fluid, and can be used to identify potential mitigation strategies for observed or forecasted seismic activity. ORION is built using Python, and has an optional GUI where users can easily configure model parameters, evaluate temporal and spatial forecasts, and inspect key data (seismicity, fluid injection, pressure models, etc.).

Kroll, Kayla↗

Seismic H2: Version 1.0

Seismic-H2 is an integrated software package for geological hydrogen reservoir simulation, optimization, and leakage monitoring. The package includes multiple components: (1) code used for modeling seismic wave propagation in 3D heterogeneous elastic media based on finite-difference method to support detection of geological hydrogen storage reservoir leakage; (2) 3D reservoir simulations of leaks from an underground reservoir and 3D simulations of saline aquifers and depleted gas reservoirs; (3) seismic monitoring costs of passive and active seismic monitoring required for UHS; (4) rock physics calculations and interpolations for converting the reservoir simulations from part (2) into the elastic media models in part (1); (5) pre-processing seismic data; and lastly (6), a GUI interface that combines these different components.

Creasy, Neala↗

In situ measurement of velocity-stress sensitivity using crosswell continuous active-source seismic monitoring

The ability to characterize time-varying reservoir properties, such as the state of stress, has fundamental implications in subsurface engineering, relevant to geologic sequestration of CO 2 . Stress variation, here in the form of changes in pore fluid pressure, is one factor known to affect seismic velocity. Induced variations in velocity have been used in seismic studies to determine and monitor changes in the stress state. Previous studies conducted to determine velocity-stress sensitivity at reservoir conditions rely primarily on laboratory measurements of core samples or theoretical relationships. In this paper, we have developed a novel field-scale experiment designed to study the in situ relationship between pore-fluid pressure and seismic velocity using a crosswell continuous active-source seismic monitoring (CASSM) system. At the Cranfield, Mississippi, CO 2 sequestration field site, we actively monitored seismic response for five days with a temporal resolution of 5 min; the target was a 26 m thick injection zone at approximately 3.2 km depth in a fluvial sandstone formation (lower Tuscaloosa Formation). The variation of pore fluid pressure was obtained during discrete events of fluid withdrawal from one of the two wells and monitored with downhole pressure sensors. The results indicate a correlation between decreasing CASSM time delay (i.e., velocity change for a raypath in the reservoir) and periods of reduced fluid pore pressure. The correlation is interpreted as the velocity-stress sensitivity measured in the reservoir. This observation is consistent with published laboratory studies documenting a velocity ( V ) increase with an effective stress increase. A traveltime change ( d t ) of 0.036 ms is measured as the consequence of a change in pressure of approximately 2.55 MPa ( d P e ). For T = 13 ms total traveltime, the velocity-stress sensitivity is d V / V / d P e = d t / T / d P e = 10.9 × 10 - 4 / MPa . Finally, the overall results suggest that CASSM measurements represent a valid technique for in situ determination of velocity-stress sensitivity in field-scale monitoring studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advances in Rotational Seismic Measurements

Rotational motion is increasingly understood to be a significant part of seismic wave motion. Rotations can be important in earthquake strong motion and in Induced Seismicity Monitoring. Rotational seismic data can also enable shear selectivity and improve wavefield sampling for vertical geophones in 3D surveys, among other applications. However, sensor technology has been a limiting factor to date. The US Department of Energy (DOE) and Applied Technology Associates (ATA) are funding a multi-year project that is now entering Phase 2 to develop and deploy a new generation of rotational sensors for validation of rotational seismic applications. Initial focus is on induced seismicity monitoring, particularly for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) with fracturing. The sensors employ Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) principles with broadband response, improved noise floors, robustness, and repeatability. This paper presents a summary of Phase 1 results and Phase 2 status.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

STILGAR Seismic Array Data

Two three-component dense seismic arrays were deployed above an active limestone mine in Pleasant Gap, Pennsylvania; one in the fall and one in the spring of 2023. Each campaign lasted approximately four weeks and included 80 to 100 seismic stations with stations spaced between 100 and 400 meters apart. Each campaign also included several small dense seismic arrays. Two types of seismic stations were deployed including FairfieldNodal ZLand 3C All-in-One seismometers and Geospace 3C GS-ONE geophone paired with GSX3 and GSX4 dataloggers. This dataset includes ~ 4 TB of three-component continuously recorded seismic data in the miniseed format data from both campaigns as well as a readme file for the data structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗