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At least 325 records · Page 18

Wave resource characterization at regional and nearshore scales for the U.S. Alaska coast based on a 32-year high-resolution hindcast

A wave resource characterization was performed for the southern coast of Alaska based on a 32-year hindcast covering the period from 1979 to 2010. The characterization closely followed International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Technical Specifications. An unstructured-grid Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, which had an approximate spatial resolution of 300 m within 30 km from the nearest shoreline, was developed. Additionally, extensive model validation and error characterization was performed. The model was found to perform well with an average absolute percent error of 8.6% in significant wave height, averaged over 18 buoys. Statistics for the six IEC wave resource parameters were calculated and aggregated at 20 km from shore to quantify the incident wave power and its variability at a regional scale. The southern coast of the Aleutian Archipelago was found to have the most available wave energy in the region. A nearshore resource assessment was performed by evaluating resource hotspots located 1 km from shore. More than 900 nearshore stations had an Optimum Hotspot Identifier value of 5 (kW/m) at diverse water depths, thereby positioning Alaska as a promising location for wave energy development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Facilitation of Community Energy Plans (DOE-AVCP Final Report)

The purpose of the Cooperative Agreement was based on the mission the two agencies have in common. The Association of Village Council Presidents (AVCP) has been a critical player in accomplishing what Alaskan Native communities need since 1964 with various programs including energy assistance. The AVCP/DOE Partnership enabled AVCP to assist 10 of 56 remote Alaska Native villages in the development of a community-led Community Energy Plan. These plans have empowered the 10 Tribes to address their own energy development needs. The community energy plans that AVCP assisted the communities with identified the community’s energy vision, goals, and a high level project timeline of each goal. The plans also include the technical potential, resource assessment, grant and technical assistance resources. The AVCP/DOE Partnership also enabled AVCP to provide tribal leaders and staff from the 56 Federally-Recognized Tribes with information about the policies and programs of the Department, support regional workshops and forums, and provide directed technical assistance for initial energy project support.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Wind Plant Performance Prediction Benchmark Phase 1 (Technical Report)

Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Methodologies of Assessing Long-Term Variability of Wind Speed

Wind resources vary from year to year, and hence the long-term variability of wind speed is a key component of the overall uncertainty in the wind resource assessment process. Because wind-turbine power generation is highly sensitive to wind speed, the variability of wind resources has important implications for renewable power production. As many approaches of calculating the spread of distribution exist, we aim to identify the methods most appropriate for all types of wind-speed distributions. We review and compare various methods, such as the Coefficient of Variation (CoV) and the Robust Coefficient of Variation (RCoV). Because the length of data available also affects the resultant spread, we determine the minimum length of wind-speed records to quantify variability accurately. We use the net monthly energy production of 607 wind farms in the United States from the Energy Information Administration and the wind speeds of the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset from NASA. After filtering the energy data via linear regression, we assess the accuracy of the variability calculations by comparing the correlations between the wind-speed variability estimates and the variabilities of wind-farm power productions. Results from statistically robust and resistant methods yield higher correlations between wind-speed and energy-production variabilities, as robust methods do not assume Gaussian wind-speed distributions and resistant methods are insensitive to wind speed extremes. We recommend RCoV to systematically estimate long-term variability, with 10 years of monthly mean data to achieve 90% statistical confidence. We will also provide generalized guidance on how to estimate long-term variability including case studies where we identify regions with high wind speeds and low wind-speed RCoVs, such as the Great Plains and the Upper Midwest in central United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development

In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential, especially when considering highly decarbonized futures.

county↗

Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development

In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Improving assessments of tidal power potential using grid refinement in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport model

Tidal currents are a promising source for future power generation given their periodicity and predictability. Therefore, numerical hydrodynamic models are frequently utilized for resource assessments. However, the relevant scales of the simulations and hence modeling techniques depend on the problem at hand. This paper shows the potential of the grid refinement technique for the assessment of tidal current energy for particular sites given its relatively low computational expense and high accuracy for the regions with the refined resolution. Example applications are described for mapping the tidal resources near two facilities (Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Maine and Key West Naval Station in Florida) for possible future deployments of Marine Hydro-Kinetic technologies. The grid refinement capability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system is used to improve the spatial resolution in the regions of interest, and has shown significant advantage over the original simulation results for the tidal power assessment. The numerical simulation results from both the original coarse grids and the refined grids are validated with measured tidal constituents at available locations. This study demonstrates how the enhancement of a model system for a regional tidal energy with grid refinement can assist with the performance of site specific resource assessments with modest computational expense.

Yang, Xiufeng↗

Strain selection, biomass to biofuel conversion, and resource colocation have strong impacts on the economic performance of algae cultivation sites

Decisions involving strain selection, biomass to biofuel technology, and the location of cultivation facilities can strongly influence the economic viability of an algae-based biofuel enterprise. In this contribution we summarize our past results in a new analysis to explore the relative economic impact of these design choices. We present strain-specific growth model results from two saline strains (Nannocloropsis salina, Arthrospira sp.), a fresh to brackish strain (Chlorella sp., DOE strain 1412), and a freshwater strain of the order Sphaeropleales. Biomass to biofuel conversion is compared between lipid extraction (LE) and hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) technologies. National-scale models of water, CO2 (as flue gas), land acquisition, site leveling, construction of connecting roads, and transport of HTL oil to existing refineries are used in conjunction with estimates of fuel value (from HTL) to prioritize and select from 88,692 unit farms (UF, 405 ha in pond area), a number sufficient to produce 136E+9 L yr-1 of renewable diesel (36 billion gallons yr-1, BGY). Strain selection and choice of conversion technology have large economic impacts, with differences between combinations of strains and biomass to biofuel technologies being up to $10 million dollars yr-1 UF-1. Results based on the most productive species, HTL-based fuel conversion, and resource costs show that the economic potential between geographic locations within the selection can differ by up to $4 million yr-1 UF-1, with 2.0 BGY of production possible from the most cost-effective sites. The local spatial variability in site rank is extreme, with very high and low rank sites within 10s of km of each other. Colocation with flue gas sources has a strong influence on site rank, but the most costly resource component varies from site to site. The highest rank sites are located predominantly in Florida and Texas, but most states south of 37°N latitude contain promising locations. Keywords: algae, biofuels, resource assessment, geographic information systems, techno-economics

algae, biofuels, resource assessment, geographic i↗

Massachusetts and New England SAF Study [Slides]

The Massachusetts Port Authority established a project to assess feedstock availability to produce SAF near 10 New England airports. A techno-economic analysis was conducted to determine renewable fuels and SAF that could be produced from these feedstocks. The resource assessment found municipal solid waste, woody biomass, and food waste were most abundant. The techno-economic analysis found that potential fuel production varied widely based on location, feedstock, and technology production pathway. An assessment of infrastructure readiness to handle SAF was conducted. It was determined that SAF produced outside of New England should be blended in other regions with more capacity and flexibility and delivered to New England as Jet A is today. For SAF produced in New England, there are terminals that have existing infrastructure to receive, blend, and distribute SAF/Jet A blends.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Offshore Wind Technology: Above the Water

WINDExchange will produce an Offshore Wind Technology: Above the Water Webinar. The webinar will explore the technology involved in offshore wind above the water including wind farm technology, turbine technology, and wind resource assessments and modeling to provide foundational technical information to communities and interested stakeholders.

above the water↗

Methods for Assessing Opportunities for Ring Dam Pumped Storage Hydropower

There is growing interest in new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) deployment to provide a range of grid flexibility, reliability, and resiliency services under an evolving and uncertain future power sector. The National Laboratory of the Rockies develops open PSH resource assessment and cost modeling tools to help evaluate PSH deployment opportunities, and this report describes expansions to those tools to consider an additional PSH system configuration - ring-dam reservoirs built on flat topographical features that are constructed from roller-compacted concrete material. This reservoir type is common among current PSH proposals and requires new methods to identify sites with this reservoir geometry throughout the United States and characterize the associated dam cost. Cost characterization for ring dam reservoirs required collecting historical dam cost data for earthen, rockfill, and roller-compacted concrete dams and regressing equations that relate costs between alternative materials. The ring dam site identification algorithm follows a 5-step procedure to identify circular geometry reservoirs. Once ring dam reservoirs are identified, they are then paired with potential dry-gully reservoirs, and the full set of potential paired reservoirs is cost-optimized to produce a least-cost set of potential PSH sites with no overlapping reservoirs. The resulting analysis found 1,663 ring-dam to dry-gully systems in the contiguous United States that are lower cost than any overlapping dry-gully to dry-gully systems, 29 in Alaska, and none in Hawaii or Puerto Rico. These systems constitute 1.5 TW of capacity in the contiguous United States and nearly 29 GW in Alaska, demonstrating that under suitable topography and head, ring-dam systems can provide cost-effective PSH opportunities. The greatest density of these opportunities are found in the intermountain west where there are mesas and flat land at bases of mountain ranges, but continued work could incorporate additional site characteristics or consider more complex reservoir shapes to find additional PSH deployment opportunities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Developing a 20-year high-resolution wind data set for Puerto Rico

The purpose of this study is to develop a high-resolution wind resource data set for Puerto Rico as part of the wind resource assessment in the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100 % Renewable Energy Study (PR100) project. The Weather and Research and Forecasting (WRF) is used to model 20-years (2001-2020) of wind resource data on a 3-km grid for the Puerto Rico region. Because accurately representing the planetary boundary layer (PBL)-physics in the WRF is key to accurately model low-level wind speed, 11 different PBL schemes are examined and evaluated to find a WRF configuration that can provide the most accurate wind data. The modeled wind speeds are validated with buoy observations, and the Shin-Hong PBL scheme is selected to generate the final wind data set. Here, the overall results demonstrate that the high-resolution data correctly represents the climate of Puerto Rico (e.g., a dominant easterly trade wind). At 160 m above ground, the southern regions of Puerto Rico show strong offshore wind speed (>8 m/s on average) throughout the daytime and nighttime. For land-based wind, average wind speed ranges from 5 m/s-7 m/s during daytime, whereas notable high wind speeds (>9 m/s) appear in the mountain regions during nighttime.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

New Stream-Reach Hydropower Development (NSD) Fact Sheet

This fact sheet explores the more than 65 gigawatts (GW) of sustainable hydropower potential in U.S. stream-reaches, according to the hydropower resource assessment funded by DOE and executed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

new stream-reach, water, power, potential, gigawat↗

Overview of NASA ISRU Plans, Priorites, and Activities

Introduction:The National Aeronautics andSpace Administration (NASA) of the United States ofAmerica (US) has initiated the Artemis Moon to Marsprogram to send astronauts (the first woman andperson of color) back to the lunar surface, create asustainable human lunar exploration program, andlead the first human exploration mission to the Marssurface in the 2030’s [1]. A major objective of thisprogram is to characterize the resources that exist onthe Moon and Mars, and learn how to utilize them forsustained and affordable exploration. Commonlyknown as In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), thesearch for, acquisition, and processing of resources inspace has the potential to greatly reduce thedependency on transporting mission consumables andinfrastructure from Earth, thereby reducing missioncosts, risks, and dependency on Earth.ISRU is Enabling: Through the extraction andprocessing of resources into mission commoditiessuch as rocket propellants, life support consumables,and fuel cell reactants, ISRU enhances and evolvesthe cis-lunar, lander, and surface transportationsystems required for human exploration; expandingand enhancing HOW humans can explore and returnfrom the Moon. Through the extraction andprocessing of resources into metals, silicon, and othermanufacturing and construction feedstock, ISRUenhances and allows for the expansion of criticalinfrastructure using in situ manufacturing andconstruction capabilities that influence WHAT humanscan do on the Moon and in cis-lunar space. Becauseof this, ISRU supports and enables commercialinvolvement beyond NASA and governmentalagencies by both lowering the cost of sustainedtransportation to/from/on the Moon as well assupporting the market required for needing thesetransportation systems. Strategic Framework:To achieve this vision,NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate(STMD) ensures the coordinated development ofISRU and other critical space and surfaceinfrastructure elements such as propulsion, power,manufacturing, construction, and robotics through theStrategic Technology Architecture Roundtable(STAR) process. Through STAR, an integratedframework and process has been created allowing forcapabilities and technologies to be linked andassessed, gaps to be identified, specifications andmetrics to be established, and provide a means toprioritize and implement technology development andmissions. A critical part of the STAR effort has beenthe establishment of the Strategic Framework thatorganizes all work under four major Thrusts (Go,Land, Live, and Explore) and identifies the drivingOutcomes for each of these Thrusts. From the Thrustsand Outcomes, all work can be categorized and linkedbetween Capability Areas, and Technology Gaps canbe identified and addressed (Figure 1.)Figure 1. Strategic Framework and STAR FrameworkISRU Envisioned Future: To drive thedevelopment of technologies and capabilities, theSTAR process starts with establishing a ‘grand vision’of where each Outcome and Capability is aiming tobe considered complete. For ISRU, the EnvisionedFuture is “Scalable ISRU production/utilizationcapabilities including sustainable commodities on thelunar and Mars Surface”. This involves starting with10’s of metric tons of products, but evolves into 100’sto 1000’s of metric tons of water, oxygen, propellants,construction and manufacturing feedstock, andcommodities for habitat and food production andoperations. For ISRU, the ‘Prospect to Product’philosophy starts with Destination Reconnaissance &Resource Assessment, followed by ResourceAcquisition, Isolation, and Preparation, leading intoResource Processing (which is further subdivided intomission consumables and feedstocks for constructionand manufacturing). The ISRU Envisioned Futurealso considers what resources are available andattempts to address what and when these resourceswill be evaluated and harnessed, as well asconsidering which products/commodities can beobtained for early use and which ones require moretime and/or users of refined products.It Takes an Architecture: ISRU does not existon its own. By definition, it requires customers/users SHORT TITLE HERE: A. B. Author and C. D. Authorto use the products/commodities produced by ISRUsystems. Also, for an ISRU capability to exist, itmust obtain products and services from other systemsand infrastructure. An important aspect of the STARprocess and the ISRU Envisioned Futures Prioritiesstrategy is to identify and link all of these systems andcapabilities to achieve the desired end state (Figure2).Figure 2. ISRU as Part of a Larger ArchitectureISRU Capability Drivers: The guidingprinciples for NASA’s Space TechnologyDevelopment for Artemis are to develop criticaltechnologies and capabilities that enable (i) asustainable Lunar surface presence, (ii) the future goalof sending humans to Mars, and (iii) promotingcritical technologies to enable future science andcommercial missions. It is a major goal of theArtemis campaign to establish some sort of base campat the lunar South Pole by approximately the end ofthe decade. The ISRU Envisioned Futures Prioritiesstrategy is aligned with the Artemis campaign todevelop and demonstrate ISRU capabilities in thistimeframe that could lead to sustained surfaceoperations, infrastructure growth, and commercialoperations in the next decade (Figure 3).Figure 3. ISRU Dual Path to Full Implementation and CommercializationState of the Art and Gaps: To achieve theenvisioned future, an extensive effort was performedto understand the State of the Art (SOA) for ISRUgoing back decades, and to assess the SOA against thenear and long-term goals and objectives of the ISRUStrategic Outcome objectives. While the releasedISRU Envisioned Futures Priorities only includes atop-level definition of both the SOA and Gaps, furtherinformation on these for ISRU can be found in theISRU Gap Assessment Study performed for theInternational Space Exploration Coordination Group(ISECG) [2]. To provide further guidance to industryand academia, a top level assessment was performedand provide that divides critical areas of ISRUcapabilities and technologies into 3 categories:Significant Funding, Partially Covered/MoreRequired, and Limited/No Funded Activities.Envisioned Future Priorities- Next Steps forISRU: While a significant amount of work over abroad range of technology areas has been performedover the last several years for lunar ISRU, to reach theenvisioned future for ISRU, a lot more work isrequired at the technology level leading to bothsystems and technology demonstrations in the nearfuture. To guide investments within NASA, industry,and academia, 5 specific areas of high priority wereidentified. These are:1.Complete development of the Water and Oxygen Mining Paths and close technology gaps, with emphasis on oxygen extraction from Highland regolith and parallel paths for polar water mining.2.Expand development of metal extraction and feedstock for manufacturing and construction, with emphasis on aluminum and initial/easy to obtain/make construction feedstocks leading to more refined metals and other regolith resources. Also, evaluate biologically inspired/derived technologies in bio-mining, bio-plastic, and other feedstock commodities.3.Ensure the resource assessment needed for future ISRU commercial operations is coordinated with both near/long-term science objectives as well as Artemis mission locations of interest.4.Initiate NASA and industry-led system-level analyses, integration, and testing activities for ISRU capabilities. While significant work has been performed at the technology and subsystemlevel, it is now important to understand how these technology investments can be leveraged and utilized in actual systems and applications5.Initiate lunar ISRU technology flight demonstrations leading to initial ‘Pilot Plant’ end-to-end production capability demonstrations, led by industry

ISRU↗