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At least 325 records · Page 18

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in STEReO (SMARt-STEReO)

Wildfire emergency response has remained rooted in relatively low-tech solutions for coordination between ground and aerial assets. These low-tech solutions are robust for the remote environments in which wildfires are usually fought, but limit strategic cross-organizational support and the ability to deploy and effectively utilize aerial assets. As aircraft become more advanced and new technology, including drones, become available to firefighters, a new, more modern method of asset coordination is needed. NASA is working on a project called ‘Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations’ (STEReO) to integrate unmanned aerial systems (UAS)and UAS traffic management (UTM)into wildfire response. STEReO’s goals include simplifying the coordination of aerial assets, improving the existing UAS framework, and increasing the role of additional autonomous systems to reduce human risk and to increase system resilience. This paper describes the development of the ‘System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in STEReO’ (SMARt-STEReO) project, which aims to model wildfire response and to quantify the additional system resilience that STEReO technology provides firefighters. This paper verifies SMARt-STEReO and defines its scope; it includes experimental and statistical analysis of the impact that the addition of UAS has on both performance metrics and also on performance resiliency response to a given fault. SMARt-STEReO is a grid-based model of fire propagation that incorporates varying crew responses. Through the use of a Python package called ‘fmdtools’, the model easily allows for the addition of faults to the system. These faults allow analysts to investigate various response parameters. Factors including terrain, fuel type and wind speed can be modified to affect the fire propagation; additionally, the number of ground crews, engines, fixed wing aircraft, helicopters, and UAS can be changed to affect the crew response. The communication lines between actors mimic those used in real life situations. This paper explains the development of SMARt-STEReO including background research, verification and validation, and preliminary experimental analysis of system resilience to both a minor and major fault in systems with and without UAS.

Resiliency↗

Resilience Engineering's Potential for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)

The national airspace (NAS) will rapidly evolve in the next ten to twenty years. Plans for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) during that period envision highly automated airspace management systems and electrically powered vehicles. AAM concepts also anticipate limited human roles. The goal of limiting the human role is to minimize the potential for misadventures, yet how the human role is limited needs to be carefully considered in order to also preserve the potential for human successes. The field of resilience engineering (RE) focuses on how systems can change in order to seize an opportunity or withstand an unforeseen challenge. RE methods rely on the use of empirical data to optimize the ability of any system to adapt. RE studies have shown how individual and team initiatives ensure resilient system performance by creating safety through flexibility. Benefits of the RE approach include improved awareness of operational circumstances and how system elements depend on each other, and the ability to allocate limited resources and prepare for surprise. RE offers the ability to account for and incorporate the human role as an essential element in order to ensure NAS systems’ resilient performance. Data on the human contribution to safe and resilient system performance, which is termed “work as done,” are available but are not being considered as the NAS evolves. We present an approach that describes how use of RE can enable the evolving NAS to adapt, and perform, in a resilient manner.

Aviation Safety↗

Strategies for Identifying Resilient Behavior In Aviation

When we imagine a situation where people fly aircraft and nothing scary happens, we assume it is the system that affords this phenomenon. That is, the overall design is the cause of the success. However, this is not always true. There are many examples of how the presence of a human in the system is the reason for a successful outcome, despite flaws in the system’s design. This resilient behavior is often overlooked and challenging to characterize. In an attempt to identify this phenomenon in a generalizable way, we named and investigated two strategies, as well as identification methods, that exemplify resilient performance: 1) controls; and 2) modifications. First, controls are resilient actions in situations known to be problematic. To capture this, instead of looking at the examples of how the problem became a reality, we look at the examples of how the problem was successfully avoided or controlled. For example, a country road may have a hairpin turn where a higher-than-normal rate of accidents occur. Given that there is a likely system flaw identified, we would look at how the successful drivers navigated the turn. This can be accomplished using current safety reporting systems. Second, modifications are augmentations or changes that people create to fill in the gap between work-as-imagined and work-as-done. This type of resilient performance is directly related to poor design. In aviation, work-as-imagined is often scripted explicitly, so it can be compared to work-as-done through the use of examining system-generated data as well as narrative reports written by the system operators. These two approaches aim to identify resilient human actions to better understand how current systems function, as well as how people contribute to successes that were otherwise unknown.

human factors↗

On Undecidability Aspects of Resilient Computations and Implications to Exascale

Future Exascale computing systems with a large number of processors, memory elements and interconnection links, are expected to experience multiple, complex faults, which affect both applications and operating-runtime systems. A variety of algorithms, frameworks and tools are being proposed to realize and/or verify the resilience properties of computations that guarantee correct results on failure-prone computing systems. We analytically show that certain resilient computation problems in presence of general classes of faults are undecidable, that is, no algorithms exist for solving them. We first show that the membership verification in a generic set of resilient computations is undecidable. We describe classes of faults that can create infinite loops or non-halting computations, whose detection in general is undecidable. We then show certain resilient computation problems to be undecidable by using reductions from the loop detection and halting problems under two formulations, namely, an abstract programming language and Turing machines, respectively. These two reductions highlight different failure effects: the former represents program and data corruption, and the latter illustrates incorrect program execution. These results call for broad-based, well-characterized resilience approaches that complement purely computational solutions using methods such as hardware monitors, co-designs, and system- and application-specific diagnosis codes.

Exascale systems↗

Distributed Energy Planning for Climate Resilience

At various levels of government across the United States and globally climate resilient solutions are being adopted and implemented. Solutions vary based on predicted hazards, community context, priorities, complexity, and available resources. Lessons are being learned through the implementation process, which can be replicated regardless of level or type of government entity carrying out the resiliency planning. Through a number of analyses and technical support across the world, NREL has learned key lessons related to resilience planning associated with power generation and water distribution. Distributed energy generation is a large factor in building resilience with clean energy technologies and solutions. The technical and policy solutions associated with distributed energy implementation for resilience fall into a few major categories, including spatial diversification, microgrids, water-energy nexus, policy, and redundancy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Projects without a purpose: Why a top down strategy to resilience matters

Energy resilience is a key focus of the current administration and Department of Defense (DoD) leaders, and is in the title of every energy conference session. Most case studies and success stories focus on resilience projects hardening systems or microgriding critical infrastructure. Some case studies focus on unique financing approaches to bring private sector innovation and increased investment to military installations. Many times, what initially look like innovative resilience projects, end as isolated systems or stranded infrastructure. This article will explore how the DoD can make greater strides advancing resilience objectives and ultimately developing projects that support installation mission readiness by first focusing on top down strategies. The Army established energy and water security/resilience requirements, developed a comprehensive measurement framework, is evolving integrated planning approaches in collaboration with local communities, and is supporting project development activities across third-party and appropriated programs. The Army’s multi-year strategic energy and water security planning activities can provide helpful guidance to both the lifecycle of programs or individual projects, and ensure resilience projects both have and achieve a purpose.

Army↗

Improving the Cyber Resiliency and Security Posture of Public Power (Final Report)

The key objective of Improving the Cyber Resiliency and Security Posture of Public Power (Project) was to develop a culture of cyber resiliency and security within the public power community. The relative smaller size and unique structure of community-owned electric utilities can sometimes present challenges in immediate recognition of threats and the escalation of potential incidents. The Project offered targeted education, coordination, capability building, and resources to help the public power community better understand, install, and implement cyber and physical resiliency and security systems. The American Public Power Association (APPA) accelerated efforts to develop resources for and with the public power community to understand and implement resiliency, cybersecurity and cyber-physical solutions, including refining and improving the adoption of advanced control concepts. The Project consisted of four major multi-pronged tasks which included: 1) Advance cyber resiliency and security assessments; 2) Conduct, evaluate, and use the results of onsite vulnerability assessments; 3) Research, evaluate, deploy, and integrate both commercial and pre-commercial security technologies; and 4) Research, evaluate, and implement information sharing mechanisms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multi-layered Resilient Microgrid Networks

Distribution grid resilience, especially when the grid is under high penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER), e.g. PV and energy storage, is essential to ensure the quality of electric power services. The resiliency aspect is particularly important for critical loads that typically include hospitals, police/fire stations, and national security facilities. Networks of multiple interconnected reconfigurable microgrids help to increase renewable energy penetration and may be used as basic building blocks for implementing future resilient power grids. However, this integration requires additional layers of communications, both horizontal and vertical, which may substantially increase the potential cyber attack surfaces as well as escalate risks for wide-spread malfunctions of automation systems. The Mulit-layered Resilient Microgrid Networks project is an industry-academic collaboration between ABB, Duke Energy and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) that has developed and demonstrated a cyber-physical resilient control and communication architecture for deployment of multiple microgrid networks, as well as retrofitting the existing distribution grids by increasing DER penetration levels.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Understanding Resilience Valuation for Energy Systems: An Overview of the NREL-NYSERDA Research Collaboration

Energy resilience has become a national priority as Americans experience more power outages attributed to climate change, extreme weather, and cyber events. Energy system owners and operators recognize that they must prepare differently for outages today than they did in the past. Decision makers at all levels face unique challenges and opportunities in effectively and equitably executing a transition to more resilient power systems. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) recently added resilience to its mission statement. The authority engaged with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in a collaborative effort to: 1) understand options for measuring and valuing resilience investment benefits, and 2) inform how resilience could be operationalized across NYSERDA initiatives and program areas.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Cyber-Resilience Risk Management Architecture for Distributed Wind

Distributed wind is an electric energy resource segment with strong potential to be deployed in many applications, but special consideration of resilience and cybersecurity is needed to address the unique conditions associated with distributed wind. Distributed wind is a strong candidate to help meet renewable energy and carbon-free energy goals. However, care must be taken as more systems are installed to ensure that the systems are reliable, resilient, and secure. The physical and communications requirements for distributed wind mean that there are unique cybersecurity considerations, but there is little to no existing guidance on best practices for cybersecurity risk management for distributed wind systems specifically. This research develops an architecture for the consideration of cyber risks associated with distributed wind systems. The architecture takes into account the configurations, challenges, and standards for distributed wind to create a risk-focused perspective that considers of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences, with special emphasis on what sets distributed wind systems apart from other distributed energy resources (DER). We discuss common distributed wind architectures and how they are interconnected to larger power systems. Because cybersecurity cannot exist independently, the cyber-resilience architecture must consider the system holistically. Finally, we discuss the implementation of a risk assessment process that uses the cyber-resilience framework to address challenges specific to distributed wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantifying and Monetizing Renewable Energy Resiliency

Energy resiliency has been thrust to the forefront by recent severe weather events and natural disasters. Billions of dollars are lost each year due to power outages. This article highlights the unique value renewable energy hybrid systems (REHS), comprised of solar, energy storage, and generators, provide in increasing resiliency. We present a methodology to quantify the amount and value of resiliency provided by REHS, and ways to monetize this resiliency value through insurance premium discounts. A case study of buildings in New York City demonstrates how implementing REHS in place of traditional backup diesel generators can double the amount of outage survivability, with an added value of $781,200. For a Superstorm Sandy type event, results indicate that insurance premium reductions could support up to 4% of the capital cost of REHS, and the potential exists to prevent up to $2.5 billion in business interruption losses with increased REHS deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Value Modeling for Enterprise Resilience

Abstract. The idea that resilience is a tangible, measureable, and desirable system attribute has grown rapidly over the last decade beyond is origins in explaining ecological, physiological, psychological, and social systems. Operational enterprise resilience requires two types of measurement. First, the system must monitor various operational conditions in order to respond to disruptions. These measurements are part of one or more observation, orientation, decision, and action (OODA) loops The OODA control processes that implement a resilience strategy use these measurements to provide robustness, rapid recovery and reconstitution. In order to assess the effectiveness of the resilience strategy, a different class of measurements is necessary. This second type consists of measurements about how well the OODA processes cover critical enterprise functions and the hazards to which the enterprise is exposed. They allow assessment of how well enterprise management processes anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to a changing environment and the degree to which the system is fault tolerant. This paper nominates a theoretical framework, in the form of definitions, a model, and a syntax, that accounts for this important distinction, and in so doing provides a mechanism for bridging resilience management process models and the many proposed cyber-defense metric enumerations.

Henderson, Dale L.↗

Resilient remediation: Addressing extreme weather and climate change, creating community value

Devastating hurricanes experienced in recent years demonstrated that extreme weather and climate change can jeopardize contaminated land remediation and harm public health and the environment. Since early 2016, the Sustainable Remediation Forum (SURF) has led research and organized knowledge exchanges to examine (1) the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on hazardous waste sites, and (2) how we can mitigate these impacts and create value for communities. The SURF team found that climate change and extreme weather events can undermine the effectiveness of the approved site remediation, and can also affect contaminant toxicity, exposure, organism sensitivity, fate and transport, long-term operations, management, and stewardship of remediation sites. Further, failure to consider social vulnerability to climate change could compromise remediation and adaptation strategies. SURF's recommendations for resilient remediation build on resources and drivers from state, national, and international sources, and marry the practices of sustainable remediation and climate change adaptation. They outline both general principles and site-specific protocols and provide global examples of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Opportunities for synergy include vulnerability assessments that benefit and build on established hazardous waste management law, policy, and practices. SURF's recommendations can guide owners and project managers in developing a site resiliency strategy. Resilient remediation can help expedite cleanup and redevelopment, decrease public health risks, and create jobs, parks, wetlands, and resilient energy sources. Resilient remediation and redevelopment can also positively contribute to achieving international goals for sustainable land management, climate action, clean energy, and sustainable cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Guest Editorial: Special issue on flexible and resilient urban energy systems

This guest editorial summarizes the topics and the papers selected for the Special Issue on Flexible and Resilient Urban Energy Systems. After rigorous reviewing process, 21 papers are accepted for publication. These 21 accepted papers cover various aspects of urban energy systems and are distributed as following: situational awareness of urban energy systems (2 papers), quantification metrics of flexibility and resilience of urban energy systems (3 papers), vulnerability modeling of urban energy systems under various extreme events (3 papers), planning of flexible and resilient urban energy systems (4 papers), robust and resilient operation and control of urban energy systems (4 papers), recovery and restoration strategy of urban energy systems (2 papers), and coordination and interoperability of interconnected energy systems (3 papers). The Guest Editorial Board hopes this Special Issue can provide a valuable information for future research and advancements in the field of flexible and resilient urban energy systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilient distribution system leveraging distributed generation and microgrids: a review

With the aging of electricity transmission and distribution infrastructures and increasing intensity of extreme weather events, the aggravated vulnerability of electric distribution systems to extreme weather events has motivated the study of resilient distribution systems. This study presents a review of the state-of-the-art research on distribution grid resilience. First, the definition and quantifying metrics of resilience in the electrical distribution system are summarised. Second, the long-term and short-term measures to enhance the distribution system resilience are discussed. In particular, the recent studies on distributed generation and microgrid-assisted resilience enhancements are reviewed. Finally, recommendations for future research are presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A building performance-based approach to determining energy resilience for grocery stores in the event of a power outage

Evaluating progress toward a built environment that is best equipped to serve communities during a regional power outage will require metrics that capture the energy resilience of the unique buildings and businesses most crucial to the well-being of those nearby. We focused on grocery stores as key buildings for which access, and thus energy resilience, is critical during a disaster when power is unavailable. We evaluated the energy resilience of these buildings by offering and testing building-scale metrics that assess business continuity potential during a power outage. Metrics proposed in this study are calculated based on the unique power loads characteristic to grocery stores, primarily refrigeration and maintaining safe indoor environmental conditions. Building simulations based on varying levels of backup power were carried out against occupant safety and comfort parameters to apply these metrics, with additional criteria imposed on grocery stores to capture the inventory and sales loss from food spoilage resulting from a lack of refrigeration power. Findings from this study demonstrate the feasibility of our proposed metrics and methodology to serve as a low-data burden means for stakeholders to evaluate the energy resilience of grocery stores, with greater implications in helping to understand the impact on community-scale energy resilience.

Siegel, Lino Sanchez↗

The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S.

Abstract Behind the meter rooftop solar plus storage (PVESS) has the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Whereas the bill reduction and environmental benefits of PVESS are well studied, its monetary resilience benefits are less understood. The increasing trend of power interruptions driven by extreme weather events heightens the need to understand these benefits. This study leverages various publicly available datasets to perform a cost benefit analysis of adding to determine the resilience value of PVESS for a typical single family home in each county in the continental U.S. We find that PVESS is very effective to technically mitigate interruptions across the country. However, the monetary benefits in the base case only cover about 14% of battery costs, with no county exceeding 60%. This is somewhat expected, given that PVESS provide other monetary benefits that are not part of this analysis. Through sensitivities, we find that higher frequency of extreme weather events roughly triples the resilience value of PVESS and that higher values of lost load double the same metric. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the benefit cost ratio of PVESS for customers living in areas with higher-than-average frequency of long duration interruptions and value of lost load is already above one even without considering other value streams. We conclude with recommendations that regulators and utilities could implement to enable customers to calculate and capture the resilience value of PVESS more efficiently.

Baik, Sunhee↗