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At least 325 records · Page 18

Fracture Sustainability in Enhanced Geothermal Systems: Experimental and Modeling Constraints

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer the potential for a much larger energy source than conventional hydrothermal systems. Hot, low-permeability rocks are prevalent at depth around the world, but the challenge of extracting thermal energy depends on the ability to create and sustain open fracture networks. Laboratory experiments were conducted using a suite of selected rock cores (granite, metasediment, rhyolite ash-flow tuff, and silicified rhyolitic tuff) at relevant pressures (uniaxial loading up to 20.7 MPa and fluid pressures up to 10.3 MPa) and temperatures (150–250 °C) to evaluate the potential impacts of circulating fluids through fractured rock by monitoring changes in fracture aperture, mineralogy, permeability, and fluid chemistry. Because a fluid in disequilibrium with the rocks (deionized water) was used for these experiments, there was net dissolution of the rock sample: this increased with increasing temperature and experiment duration. Thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) modeling simulations were performed for the rhyolite ash-flow tuff experiment to test the ability to predict the observed changes. These simulations were performed in two steps: a thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) simulation to evaluate the effects of compression of the fracture, and a thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) simulation to evaluate the effects of hydrothermal reactions on the fracture mineralogy, porosity, and permeability. Furthermore, these experiments and simulations point out how differences in rock mineralogy, fluid chemistry, and geomechanical properties influence how long asperity-propped fracture apertures may be sustained. Such core-scale experiments and simulations can be used to predict EGS reservoir behavior on the field scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Pore-Scale Dynamics of Liquid CO2–Water Displacement in 2D Axisymmetric Porous Micromodels Under Strong Drainage and Weak Imbibition Conditions: High-Speed μPIV Measurements

Resolving pore-scale transient flow dynamics is crucial to understanding the physics underlying multiphase flow in porous media and informing large-scale predictive models. Surface properties of the porous matrix play an important role in controlling such physics, yet interfacial mechanisms remain poorly understood, in part due to a lack of direct observations. This study reports on an experimental investigation of the pore-scale flow dynamics of liquid CO 2 and water in two-dimensional (2D) circular porous micromodels with different surface characteristics employing high-speed microscopic particle image velocimetry (μPIV). The design of the micromodel minimized side boundary effects due to the limited size of the domain. The high-speed μPIV technique resolved the spatial and temporal dynamics of multiphase flow of CO 2 and water under reservoir-relevant conditions, for both drainage and imbibition scenarios. When CO 2 displaced water in a hydrophilic micromodel (i.e., drainage), unstable capillary fingering occurred and the pore flow was dominated by successive pore-scale burst events (i.e., Haines jumps). When the same experiment was repeated in a nearly neutral wetting micromodel (i.e., weak imbibition), flow instability and fluctuations were virtually eliminated, leading to a more compact displacement pattern. Energy balance analysis indicates that the conversion efficiency between surface energy and external work is less than 30%, and that kinetic energy is a disproportionately smaller contributor to the energy budget. This is true even during a Haines jump event, which induces velocities typically two orders of magnitude higher than the bulk velocity. These novel measurements further enabled direct observations of the meniscus displacement, revealing a significant alteration of the pore filling mechanisms during drainage and imbibition. While the former typically featured burst events, which often occur only at one of the several throats connecting a pore, the latter is typically dominated by a cooperative filling mechanism involving simultaneous invasion of a pore from multiple throats. This cooperative filling mechanism leads to merging of two interfaces and releases surface energy, causing instantaneous high-speed events that are similar, yet fundamentally different from, burst events. Finally, pore-scale velocity fields were statistically analyzed to provide a quantitative measure of the role of capillary effects in these pore flows.

Li, Yaofa↗

Experimental study of three-dimensional CO 2 -water drainage and fracture-matrix interactions in fractured porous media

Estimation of CO 2 storage capacity in fractured porous reservoirs requires a better understanding of the CO 2 -water flow fundamentals in fracture-matrix systems. There are few core-flood experiments on three-dimensional CO 2 -water drainage in a fracture-matrix system, yet none have examined the impacts of the capillary continuity of fractures and fracture-matrix interactions. In this study, twelve drainage experiments were conducted in four fracture-matrix columns, each comprising a vertical stack of a cylindrical rock core, a filter paper serving as an analogue to a horizontal fracture, and a ceramic plate. Here, the core sample was surrounded by open space at the top and circumferential sides to model fractures, allowing for 3-D CO 2 -water drainage in the rock core and displaced water draining across the horizontal fracture. X-ray computed tomography was conducted to visualize the dynamic invasion/drainage processes in four rock core samples showing contrasts in anisotropy, permeability, and heterogeneity. Experimental results show (1) the equilibrium CO 2 saturations in the rock matrix vary from 0.10 to 0.60 at controlled capillary pressures up to 200 kPa, (2) the CO 2 saturations in the matrix increase with water saturation in the horizontal fracture resulting in better capillary continuity for water to drain across the fracture, and (3) the fracture water saturation can be enhanced by the non-uniform fracture capillary pressure and countercurrent flow of CO 2 and water across the fracture-matrix interface. In the case of high fracture water saturation, matrix CO 2 saturation largely depends on matrix anisotropy and heterogeneity. The core-scale experimental results contribute to understand the fracture-matrix interactions and CO 2 storage efficiency in fractured porous media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Isotopic fractionation as in-situ sensor of subsurface reactive flow and precursor for rock failure

Greater utilization of subsurface reservoirs perturbs in-situ chemical-mechanical conditions with wide ranging consequences from decreased performance to project failure. Understanding the chemical precursors to rock deformation is critical to reducing the risks of these activities. To address this need, we investigated the coupled flow-dissolution- precipitation-adsorption reactions involving calcite and environmentally-relevant solid phases. Experimentally, we quantified (1) stable isotope fractionation processes for strontium during calcite nucleation and growth, and during reactive fluid flow; (2) consolidation behavior of calcite assemblages in the common brines. Numerically, we quantified water weakening of calcite using molecular dynamics simulations; and quantified the impact of calcite dissolution rate on macroscopic fracturing using finite element models. With microfluidic experiments and modeling, we show the effect of local flow fields on the dissolution kinetics of calcite. Taken together across a wide range of scales and methods, our studies allow us to separate the effects of reaction, flow, and transport, on calcite fracturing and the evolution of strontium isotopic signatures in the reactive fluids.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Geostatistical Mapping of Salinity Conditioned on Borehole Logs, Montebello Oil Field, California

We present a geostatistics-based stochastic salinity estimation framework for the Montebello Oil Field that capitalizes on available total dissolved solids (TDS) data from groundwater samples as well as electrical resistivity (ER) data from borehole logging. Data from TDS samples (n = 4924) was coded into an indicator framework based on falling below four selected thresholds (500, 1000, 3000, and 10,000 mg/L). Collocated TDS-ER data from the surrounding groundwater basin were then employed to produce a kernel density estimator to establish conditional probabilities for ER data (n = 8 boreholes) falling below the selected TDS thresholds within the Montebello Oil Field area. Directional variograms were estimated from these indicator coded data, and 500 TDS realizations from conditional indicator simulation were generated for the subsurface region above the Montebello Oil Field reservoir. Simulations were summarized as 3D maps of median TDS, most likely salinity class, and probability for exceeding each of the specified TDS thresholds. Results suggested TDS was below 500 mg/L in most of the study area, with a trend toward higher values (500 to 1000 mg/L) to the southwest; consistent with the average regional groundwater flow direction. Discrete localized zones of TDS greater than 1000 mg/L were observed, with one of these zones in the greater than 10,000 mg/L range; however, these areas were not prevalent. The probabilistic approach used here is adaptable and is readily modified to include additional data and types and can be employed in time-lapse salinity modeling through Bayesian updating.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance of Closed Loop Venturi Aspirated Aeration System: Experimental Study and Numerical Analysis with Discrete Bubble Model

In wastewater treatment plants, aeration plays a significant role as it encourages aerobic respiration of microbes, which are necessary to break down carbonaceous matter in the waste stream. This process can account for the majority of energy use in wastewater treatment plants. The aeration process is also necessary in odor control in lagoons and in the aquaculture industry. Generally, the aeration process is accomplished with compressors or blowers which can be of low efficiency due to ideal gas laws. This study introduces the idea of increasing aeration efficiency by looping water from a reservoir through a piping network which includes a venturi aspirator at its inlet. For this purpose, an experimental study has been conducted in a laboratory setup with a pump which pulls water from a tank, passes it through a Venturi aspirator and a helical piping network intended to increase bubble residence time, before depositing it back into the bulk fluid tank. This same process is modeled computationally, using a discrete bubble method (DBM), with good agreement with experiments. The overall purpose here is to determine the optimal configurations for standard aeration efficiency (SAE) and the standard oxygen transfer rate (SOTR). A parametric study has been implemented using the DBM based on different hydraulic and flow parameters. The model is also used to predict the SAE of a hypothetical aeration system. Results indicate that it is possible to achieve SAE values in the range of surface aerators or submersed jet aerators using the proposed aeration system with less complex components, thereby decreasing overall costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

HIMALA: Climate Impacts on Glaciers, Snow, and Hydrology in the Himalayan Region

Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world s population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

Brown, Molly Elizabeth↗

Predictive Inverse Model for Advective Heat Transfer in a Short–Circuited Fracture: Dimensional Analysis, Machine Learning, and Field Demonstration

Identifying fluid flow maldistribution in planar geometries is a well–established problem in subsurface science/engineering. Of particular importance to the thermal performance of enhanced (or “engineered”) geothermal systems is identifying the existence of nonuniform (i.e., heterogeneous) permeability and subsequently predicting advective heat transfer. Here, machine learning via a genetic algorithm (GA) identifies the spatial distribution of an unknown permeability field in a two–dimensional Hele–Shaw geometry (i.e., parallel plates). The inverse problem is solved by minimizing the L2 norm between simulated residence time distribution (RTD) and measurements of an inert tracer breakthrough curve (BTC) (C–Dot nanoparticle). Principal component analysis (PCA) of spatially correlated permeability fields enabled reduction of the parameter space by more than a factor of 10 and restricted the inverse search to reservoir–scale permeability variations. Thermal experiments and tracer tests conducted at the mesoscale Altona Field Laboratory (AFL) demonstrate that the method accurately predicts the effects of extreme flow channeling on heat transfer in a single bedding–plane rock fracture. However, this is only true when the permeability distributions provide adequate matches to both tracer RTD and frictional pressure loss. Without good agreement to frictional pressure loss, it is still possible to match a simulated RTD to measurements, but subsequent predictions of heat transfer are grossly inaccurate. Here, the results of this study suggest that it is possible to anticipate the thermal effects of flow maldistribution, but only if both simulated RTDs and frictional pressure loss between fluid inlets and outlets are in good agreement with measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

LLNL 5-2428: Fracture Permeability and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameteruncertainty and better predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites.We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. This capability will enable improvedengineering decisions at Utah FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. Utah FORGE management and future EGS operators may employ results of THMC+E models for decision making purposes throughout the lifetime of the field operation. For example, before production well installation, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite ofpossible well locations and flow rates, thus enabling evaluation of optimal production well placement. Such efforts will be conducted throughout the lifetime of the project, whereby additional laboratory experiments will constrain key model parameters and machine learning (ML) will reduce the size of the parameter space and the associated uncertainty. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SECARB-USA: Needs Assessment Framework for Storage Complexes (Task 2.1.b)

A team of SECARB storage experts examined 63 formations at 39 sites that were selected to represent the range of diversity of newly assessed, as well as well-advanced, storage prospects in the SECARB region. We inventoried the data needs triggered by the requirements to obtain a Class VI UIC storage permit, the data needs that results from the requirement to create geocellular fluid flow models to support that permit, and by pragmatic and best practice inputs such as public acceptance, regulatory readiness, and pore space leasing. We anchored both the needs inventory and the processes for and cost of meeting the needs with data from 9 sites in in the SECARB area that have advanced far in characterization. Results show that the total cost of characterization prior to obtaining a permit is convergent, because the permit and modeling requirements drive projects to obtain the same types of data for all cases. The high cost data that control cost are 1) drilling, coring, core-testing, logging, sampling and testing a characterization well and 2) collection of a 3-D seismic survey to map reservoir and confining system properties over the area of the plume or the area of elevated pressure. In 5 of our case study sites we determined that one or both of these costs could be avoided because the needs are met by available data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Matrix-Free High-Performance Saddle-Point Solvers for High-Order Problems in \(\boldsymbol{H}(\operatorname{\textbf{div}})\)

Here, this work describes the development of matrix-free GPU-accelerated solvers for high-order finite element problems in H(div). The solvers are applicable to grad-div and Darcy problems in saddle-point formulation, and have applications in radiation diffusion and porous media flow problems, among others. Using the interpolation–histopolation basis, efficient matrix-free preconditioners can be constructed for the (1, 1)-block and Schur complement of the block system. With these approximations, block-preconditioned MINRES converges in a number of iterations that is independent of the mesh size and polynomial degree. The approximate Schur complement takes the form of an M-matrix graph Laplacian and therefore can be well-preconditioned by highly scalable algebraic multigrid methods. High-performance GPU-accelerated algorithms for all components of the solution algorithm are developed, discussed, and benchmarked. Numerical results are presented on a number of challenging test cases, including the “crooked pipe” grad-div problem, the SPE10 reservoir modeling benchmark problem, and a nonlinear radiation diffusion test case.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mars - The regolith-atmosphere-cap system and climate change

A model is derived for the prediction of the Martian regolith-atmosphere-cap CO2 regime's behavior, as well as for the description of the roly of the regime in climate change, through descriptions of the time-temperature histories of 90 regolith 'chunks' on a latitude-depth grid. The influence of differences in regolith adsorption laws for basalt and clay, and the influence of variations in regolith depth with (1) latitude, (2) regolith thermal diffusivity, and (3) total exchangeable CO2 inventory on predicted variations in atmospheric pressure and cap mass, are examined. It is found that the atmosphere acts as a low capacity conduit between two reservoirs through which 10-100 times the current atmospheric mass of CO2 flows. The exchange between the reservoirs is driven by obliquity variations, with the polar cap the dominant CO2 sink at low obliquity and the regolith dominating at high obliquity.

Fanale, F. P.↗

Mapping Firn Saturation over Greenland using NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive Satellite

Mapping the spatial extent of recently identified englacial hydrological features (i.e., ice slabs and perennial firn aquifers) formed by meters-thick water-saturated firn layers over the percolation facies of the Greenland Ice Sheet using L-band microwave radiometry has recently been demonstrated. However, these initial maps are binary, and do not provide a parameter to estimate the spatial variability in the thickness and volumetric fraction of meltwater stored within the firn pore space. Here, we exploit enhanced-resolution vertical-polarization L-band brightness temperature (T^(B)_(V)) imagery (2015–2019) generated using observations collected over Greenland by NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite and a simple two-layer L-band brightness temperature model. We map water-saturated firn layers via a “firn saturation” parameter, and interpret our results together with ice slab and perennial firn aquifer spatial extents, estimates of snow accumulation simulated via the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMOp2.3), and airborne radar surveys collected via NASA’s Operation IceBridge (OIB) campaigns. We find that variable firn saturation parameter values are mapped in lower snow accumulation ice slab areas in western, northern, and northeastern Greenland, where firn is colder and water-saturated firn layers seasonally refreeze as solid-ice. Higher firn saturation parameter values are mapped in higher snow accumulation perennial firn aquifer areas in southeastern, southern, and northwestern Greenland, where firn is near the melting point, and meters-thick water-saturated firn layers exist. Our results have implications for identifying expansive englacial reservoirs that store significant volumes of meltwater in locations that are vulnerable to meltwater-induced hydrofracturing and accelerated outlet glacier flow year-round.

Greenland ice sheet↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Impact of cement composition, brine concentration, diffusion rate, reaction rate and boundary condition on self-sealing predictions for cement-CO 2 systems

Geological CO 2 storage (GCS) plays an important role in curbing CO 2 emissions by reducing the carbon footprint of difficult to decarbonize operations and achieve negative CO 2 emissions through activities like Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS). Leakage of CO 2 through wells is an important concern when it comes to deployment of large-scale GCS. Existing wells in sites that are otherwise suitable for GCS can act as conduits for stored CO 2 to escape the reservoir. There is broad consensus that the main risk of leakage through wellbores is via fractures/damaged pathways. The results from several studies evaluating the permeability evolution of cement fractures in wells upon leakage of CO 2 agree that smaller fracture apertures, slower brine velocities and higher brine residence times promote self-sealing of fractures by mineral precipitation. Quantitatively, however, the differences in sealing conditions are significant and are typically attributed to differences in experimental conditions or model assumptions. Here we examine the sensitivity of our model, describing CO 2 leakage through wellbores, to cement composition, brine concentration, diffusion rates, and reaction rates. We also evaluate the impact of the boundary condition to allow comparisons between observations from experiments performed at constant flow rate and model predictions made at constant pressure conditions. Our results show that diffusion and reactions rates have the most impact on the self-sealing criteria for cement-CO 2 systems. In addition, conditions associated with self-sealing of fractures at constant flow rate require longer fractures, smaller fracture apertures, and slower velocities than under constant pressure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of Rock Wettability and Mineralization on CO 2 Storage Efficiency in Basalt Reservoirs

Basalt formations have emerged as highly promising targets for geological CO 2 storage due to their abundance of reactive silicate minerals that can rapidly convert dissolved CO 2 into stable carbonate minerals. The efficiency of CO 2 trapping in basalts, however, depends not only on their geochemical reactivity but also on reservoir wettability, which governs how CO 2 partitions among structural, residual, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms. However, wettability and mineral kinetics have largely been examined separately, wettability for plume migration and kinetics in terms of mineralization, leaving their coupled impact unquantified. Here, we systematically integrate th ese processes in a reservoir-scale reactive transport model to quantify the impact of three distinct wettability conditions (water-wet, mixed-wet, and CO 2 -wet) on plume migration, mineral precipitation, pore-scale blockage, and long-term immobilization. Results show that under ideal conditions (no mineralization), water-wet systems exhibited plume aspect ratios up to 28% higher than CO 2 -wet systems and promoted at least 60% greater residual trapping. When mineralization was incorporated, mineral trapping accounted for 57%, 53%, and 46% of the total immobilized CO 2 in water-wet, mixed-wet, and CO 2 -wet systems, respectively. Dissolved CO 2 contributed 43-46%, while residual trapping remained below 5%, and mobile CO 2 was substantially reduced due to mineralization, demonstrating that as the system becomes more water-wet, CO 2 is more effectively converted into stable carbonate minerals, although extensive mineral precipitation may lead to pore clogging. A global Sobol-Morris sensitivity analysis further reveals that the kinetic parameters of reactive minerals are the most influential factor, followed by wettability, while salinity has only a minor influence. Furthermore, these findings highlight that wettability is not merely a flow property but a fundamental control on CO 2 mineralization in basalts, with direct implications for site selection for storage projects.

Basalts↗

A New Paradigm for Gamma Ray Bursts: Long Term Accretion Rate Modulation by an External Accretion Disk

We present a new way of looking at the very long term evolution of GRBs in which the disk of material surrounding the putative black hole powering the GRB jet modulates the mass flow, and hence the efficacy of the process that extracts rotational energy from the black hole and inner accretion disk. The pre-Swift paradigm of achromatic, shallow-to-steep "breaks" in the long term GRB light curves has not been borne out by detailed Swift data amassed in the past several years. We argue that, given the initial existence of a fall-back disk near the progenitor, an unavoidable consequence will be the formation of an "external disk" whose outer edge continually moves to larger radii due to angular momentum transport and lack of a confining torque. The mass reservoir at large radii moves outward with time and gives a natural power law decay to the GRB light curves. In this model, the different canonical power law decay segments in the GRB identified by Zhang et al. and Nousek et al. represent different physical states of the accretion disk. We identify a physical disk state with each power law segment.

Cannizzo, John↗

Expansion of smallmouth bass distribution and habitat overlap with juvenile Chinook salmon in the Willamette River, Oregon

Abstract Smallmouth bass populations have expanded far beyond their native range and these predatory fish present a pervasive threat to native aquatic species throughout North America. In the western United States, smallmouth bass are now present in river and reservoir habitats where Pacific salmon are found and are considered a potential threat to salmon recovery in many locations. We conducted a study to determine if smallmouth bass are expanding their range in the mainstem Willamette River, Oregon, and developed a model to assess habitat overlap between smallmouth bass and juvenile Chinook salmon. Sampling during 2011–2022 revealed that the distribution of smallmouth bass had expanded throughout that timeframe to encompass the entire mainstem Willamette River, including important rearing habitats for juvenile Chinook salmon. The model predicted that smallmouth bass and juvenile Chinook salmon habitat overlap was substantial, highlighting the need for additional research to evaluate for potential negative impacts to salmon recovery in the basin. The model was also used to evaluate the efficacy of using flow management to reduce interactions between these two species, but the scenarios we examined suggested that this was not a viable option. These results highlight the need for continued research to assess interactions between smallmouth bass and juvenile salmon, and other native species of concern, in the Willamette River Basin. The development of the model is useful for resource managers to understand interactions between these species to prioritize locations for sampling in the future.

White, James S.↗