On a priori statistics in minimum-variance estimation problems.
Errors in a priori statistics in minimum variance estimation of regression parameters and effects on a posteriori estimates
REGRESSION ANALYSIS↗
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Results for “Random variables”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Optimal control of saturating systems with stochastic inputs.
Wiener filtering theory for stationary ergodic inputs with known spectral densities and optimal control transfer functions of random-input nonlinear saturating systems with random unwanted disturbances
RANDOM VARIABLE↗
Tapped delay line simulation of randomly time-variant channels
Theory, mathematical model, and computer simulation of randomly time-variant channels applied in tapped delay line development
MATHEMATICAL MODEL↗
A property of the order statistics of an exponential variate
Order statistics of exponential variate used in estimating scale of exponential distribution of know location
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION↗
Source encoding in the presence of random disturbance
Source encoding in presence of random disturbance
VECTOR↗
The theory of stationary point processes.
Axiomatic formulation for stationary point processes interpreted as ordered sequences of points randomly located on real line, noting relation to set theory
SET THEORY↗
Selection from multivariate normal populations.
Selection probability from multivariable normal populations in terms of noncentrality parameters
POPULATION↗
An investigation of the internal and external aerodynamics of cattle trucks
Wind tunnel tests were conducted on a one-tenth scale model of a conventional tractor trailer livestock hauler to determine the air flow through the trailer and the drag of the vehicle. These tests were conducted with the trailer empty and with a full load of simulated cattle. Additionally, the drag was determined for six configurations, of which details for three are documented herein. These are: (1) conventional livestock trailer empty, (2) conventional trailer with smooth sides (i.e., without ventilation openings), and (3) a stream line tractor with modified livestock trailer (cab streamlining and gap fairing). The internal flow of the streamlined modification with simulated cattle was determined with two different ducting systems: a ram air inlet over the cab and NACA submerged inlets between the cab and trailer. The air flow within the conventional trailer was random and variable. The streamline vehicle with ram air inlet provided a nearly uniform air flow which could be controlled. The streamline vehicle with NACA submerged inlets provided better flow conditions than the conventional livestock trailer but not as uniform or controllable as the ram inlet configuration.
Muirhead, V. U.↗
Reliability analysis in intelligent machines
Given an explicit task to be executed, an intelligent machine must be able to find the probability of success, or reliability, of alternative control and sensing strategies. By using concepts for information theory and reliability theory, new techniques for finding the reliability corresponding to alternative subsets of control and sensing strategies are proposed such that a desired set of specifications can be satisfied. The analysis is straightforward, provided that a set of Gaussian random state variables is available. An example problem illustrates the technique, and general reliability results are presented for visual servoing with a computed torque-control algorithm. Moreover, the example illustrates the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence at the execution level of an intelligent machine.
Mcinroy, John E.↗
Fatigue crack growth under variable amplitude loading
Fatigue crack growth tests were conducted on an Fe 510 E C-Mn steel and a submerged arc welded joint from the same material under constant, variable, and random loading amplitudes. Paris-Erdogan's crack growth rate law was tested for the evaluation of m and C using the stress intensity factor K, the J-integral, the effective stress intensity factor K(sub eff), and the root mean square stress intensity factor K(sub rms) fracture mechanics concepts. The effect of retardation and residual stresses resulting from welding was also considered. It was found that all concepts gave good life predictions in all cases.
Sidawi, Jihad A.↗
An Approach to Simulation of Extreme Conditions for a Planetary Lander
A "Monte Carlo-like" design analysis tool is developed and applied to an aeromaneuvering Mars entry vehicle. This tool provides realistic but challenging design cases using many fewer cases than a full Monte Carlo analysis. The problem of random input variables that are provided a priori (as opposed to being drawn from a given distribution) is addressed and a solution is found that shows prospects for future improvement.
Queen, Eric M.↗
Life Predicted in a Probabilistic Design Space for Brittle Materials With Transient Loads
Analytical techniques have progressively become more sophisticated, and now we can consider the probabilistic nature of the entire space of random input variables on the lifetime reliability of brittle structures. This was demonstrated with NASA s CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code combined with the commercially available ANSYS/Probabilistic Design System (ANSYS/PDS), a probabilistic analysis tool that is an integral part of the ANSYS finite-element analysis program. ANSYS/PDS allows probabilistic loads, component geometry, and material properties to be considered in the finite-element analysis. CARES/Life predicts the time dependent probability of failure of brittle material structures under generalized thermomechanical loading--such as that found in a turbine engine hot-section. Glenn researchers coupled ANSYS/PDS with CARES/Life to assess the effects of the stochastic variables of component geometry, loading, and material properties on the predicted life of the component for fully transient thermomechanical loading and cyclic loading.
Nemeth, Noel N.↗
Total Variance: A Progress Report on a New Frequency Stability Characterization
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Total variance random variable function of tau All↗
Probabilistic Independence Networks for Hidden Markov Probability Models
In this paper we explore hidden Markov models(HMMs) and related structures within the general framework of probabilistic independence networks (PINs). The paper contains a self-contained review of the basic principles of PINs. It is shown that the well-known forward-backward (F-B) and Viterbi algorithms for HMMs are special cases of more general enference algorithms for arbitrary PINs.
random variables pattern recognition signal proces↗
A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Determine Sensor Radiometric Response Coefficients for NPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands
Optical sensors aboard Earth orbiting satellites such as the next generation Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) assume that the sensors radiometric response in the Reflective Solar Bands (RSB) is described by a quadratic polynomial, in relating the aperture spectral radiance to the sensor Digital Number (DN) readout. For VIIRS Flight Unit 1, the coefficients are to be determined before launch by an attenuation method, although the linear coefficient will be further determined on-orbit through observing the Solar Diffuser. In determining the quadratic polynomial coefficients by the attenuation method, a Maximum Likelihood approach is applied in carrying out the least-squares procedure. Crucial to the Maximum Likelihood least-squares procedure is the computation of the weight. The weight not only has a contribution from the noise of the sensor s digital count, with an important contribution from digitization error, but also is affected heavily by the mathematical expression used to predict the value of the dependent variable, because both the independent and the dependent variables contain random noise. In addition, model errors have a major impact on the uncertainties of the coefficients. The Maximum Likelihood approach demonstrates the inadequacy of the attenuation method model with a quadratic polynomial for the retrieved spectral radiance. We show that using the inadequate model dramatically increases the uncertainties of the coefficients. We compute the coefficient values and their uncertainties, considering both measurement and model errors.
Lei, Ning↗
Uncertainty Quantification of the FUN3D-Predicted NASA CRM Flutter Boundary
A nonintrusive point collocation method is used to propagate parametric uncertainties of the flexible Common Research Model, a generic transport configuration, through the unsteady aeroelastic CFD solver FUN3D. A range of random input variables are considered, including atmospheric flow variables, structural variables, and inertial (lumped mass) variables. UQ results are explored for a range of output metrics (with a focus on dynamic flutter stability), for both subsonic and transonic Mach numbers, for two different CFD mesh refinements. A particular focus is placed on computing failure probabilities: the probability that the wing will flutter within the flight envelope.
Stanford, Bret K.↗
Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific
Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.
California drought;Atmospheric ridging;Ocean-atmos↗
Applying Simulated Annealing to Problems in Model-Based Diagnosis
Generating all diagnoses is computationally intractable. Therefore, many of the state-of-the-art approaches are incomplete. Quantum computers may however offer a solution. The first commercially available quantum computer is being used to minimize polynomials that are difficult for classical simulated annealing but easy for quantum annealing. All problems in Model-based Diagnosis (MBD) can be transformed into a polynomial minimization problem, allowing one to apply a quantum algorithm called quantum annealing to solve MBD problems. To better understand the need for this quantum approach, we designed two simulated annealingdiagnostic algorithms tailored to run on a polynomial representation of MBD. These algorithms differ on their policy for random neighborhood variable selection. In addition, enhanced metrics were devised to provide more diagnostic coverage. Finally, these two simulated annealing algorithms were analyzed and empirically evaluated and compared against state-of-the-art probabilistic methods for MBD such as SAFARI using ISCAS-85.
Simulated annealing↗