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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawaii: 1. Geological, geophysical, and geochemical datasets

Phase 1 of a Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) of geothermal resource potential across the State of Hawaii was recently completed. The final products of this work include a statewide geothermal resource probability map, a map of confidence in this probability, an assessment of the viability of development in areas of interest, and a prioritized list of recommended future exploration activities. The intersection of subsurface heat (H), permeability (P), and fluid (F) is necessary for an optimum geothermal play. This study: (1) identified and compiled all legacy and current data relevant to Hawaii’s geothermal resource; (2) ranked these datasets in terms of their relevance to subsurface H, P, F; (3) developed a Bayesian statistical method to incorporate the data and their rankings, and produce a statewide resource probability map; (4) developed a method to assess confidence in the probability values; and (5) assessed what we term ‘development viability’ in resulting areas of interest across the state. This paper details the basic project workflow, and activities (1) and (2). It describes the rationale for including this study’s datasets: surface geologic mapping data (calderas, rift zones, volcanic vents, dikes, faults), groundwater data (temperature, Chloride:Magnesium, SiO 2 ) and geophysical data (gravity, magnetotelluric, seismic, geodetic strain), and justifies their relative rankings in terms of H, P, and F. A second paper describes activities (3) and (4) related to the statistical methodology, and a third paper describes activity (5), the development viability criteria, as well as our suggested roadmap for future exploration activities. Overall, we find that the likelihood of abundant of geothermal resources is highest on the youngest island of Hawaii, but groundwater indicators suggest there may also be resources on the other, older islands. Furthermore, the higher demand for renewable energy on the more populated islands of Maui and Oahu, as well as a high viability of development on Lanai, also motivate further exploration on these islands.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Holistic Marine Energy Resource Assessments: A Wave and Offshore Wind Perspective of Metocean Conditions

Offshore wind and wave energy resources are possibly the last significantly untapped renewable energy resource, and could play a significant role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change via the generation of renewable electricity. However, offshore wind and wave energy resource assessments have been conducted as independent parallel processes, with little interaction with regard to best practices, lessons learnt, or opportunities to create compatible methodologies for future utilization by the broader marine energy sector. Based on the latest technical specifications from the International Electrotechnical Commission, and the highest fidelity publicly available datasets, the offshore wind and wave conditions at the PacWave site off Oregon, USA were quantified. The results clearly show a significant untapped energy resource an annual average wave energy flux of ~35kW/m and a mean average wind speed of 7.8m/s. The offshore wind and wave energy resources both show significant seasonal variation, with offshore wind also featuring a consistent daily profile during summer. Finally, opportunities and challenges associated with developing a holistic assessment of offshore marine energy resources were discussed and recommendations provided.

Robertson, Bryson↗
DOE OSTI2018

Trait-based patterns of microbial dynamics in dormancy potential and heterotrophic strategy: case studies of resource-based and post-press succession

Understanding the relationship between microbial community structure and function is a major challenge in microbial ecology. Recent work has shown that community weighted mean 16S rRNA gene copies, as a proxy for heterotrophic growth strategy, is a microbial community trait that decreases predictably over successional trajectories that are underpinned by changes in resource availability. However, it has been challenging to identify other microbial traits that are predictive of community functions and have consistent patterns with succession. Trait-based patterns of secondary succession (e.g., after a disturbance) are less often considered, and these responses may be underpinned by abiotic drivers other than changes in resources. In this perspectives piece, we present hypotheses about microbial traits important for microbial succession in resource-based and post-press disturbance scenarios, as synthesized from previous works and extended within this work. Using four case studies, we compare two traits, heterotrophic strategy and dormancy potential, and two different types of succession, resource-based (endogenous heterotrophic) and post-press. There were decreases in weighted ribosomal operon counts and in dormancy genes over resource-based succession. Both traits also were lower in post-press succession as compared to reference conditions, but increased with time from disturbance. Thus, dormancy potential may be an additional trait that changes predictably with succession. Finally, considering changes in microbial community traits over post-press succession is as important as over resource-based succession. These patterns need to be interpreted carefully and reference and recovering samples can be collected to improve interpretation of changes in community traits over post-press succession.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Repurposing of the Run 2 CMS High Level Trigger Infrastructure as a Cloud Resource for Offline Computing

The former CMS Run 2 High Level Trigger (HLT) farm is one of the largest contributors to CMS compute resources, providing about 25k job slots for offline computing. This CPU farm was initially employed as an opportunistic resource, exploited during inter-fill periods, in the LHC Run 2. Since then, it has become a nearly transparent extension of the CMS capacity at CERN, being located on-site at the LHC interaction point 5 (P5), where the CMS detector is installed. This resource has been configured to support the execution of critical CMS tasks, such as prompt detector data reconstruction. It can therefore be used in combination with the dedicated Tier 0 capacity at CERN, in order to process and absorb peaks in the stream of data coming from the CMS detector. The initial configuration for this resource, based on statically configured VMs, provided the required level of functionality. However, regular operations of this cluster revealed certain limitations compared to the resource provisioning and use model employed in the case of WLCG sites. A new configuration, based on a vacuum-like model, has been implemented for this resource in order to solve the detected shortcomings. This paper reports about this redeployment work on the permanent cloud for an enhanced support to CMS offline computing, comparing the former and new models’ respective functionalities, along with the commissioning effort for the new setup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of distributed compute resources utilization in the CMS Global Pool

The CMS Submission Infrastructure is the primary system for managing computing resources for CMS workflows, including data processing, simulation, and analysis. It integrates geographically distributed resources from Grid, HPC, and cloud providers into federated pools managed by HTCondor and Glidein- WMS, for a total of around 500k CPU cores. This system dynamically manages workloads based on priorities defined by the collaboration. Additionally, CMS scheduling strategies must be flexible to handle multiple concurrent workloads while considering changing processing demands and resource availability from various providers.Efficient utilization of vast amounts of distributed compute resources is a key element for the success of the scientific programs of the LHC experiments. Optimizing the system is essential to maximize resource efficiency and fully utilize the distributed computing power. The CMS Submission Infrastructure team thus systematically investigates sources of inefficiency in workload scheduling to reduce their impact. In addition, a strategy of pilot overloading has been introduced to compensate for other inefficiency sources, thereby optimizing resource utilization and enhancing computational throughput.

Mascheroni, Marco [UC, San Diego (main)]↗
DOE OSTI2020

A convective wind resource model for Solar Vortex power generation

Climate change has increased the need for clean, nonpolluting energy sources to decrease dependence on fossil fuels. Alternative energy sources, mainly solar and horizontal wind, have been the primary focus for producing clean energy. New technologies are being developed, such as the Solar Vortex (SoV), which was developed at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and relies on a vertical wind resource to generate power. The National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) has resource models representing solar and horizontal wind resources across the 48 United States. This research developed a vertical wind resource model that is comparable in resolution to NREL’s solar and horizontal wind resource models and uses the model for estimating power output for the SoV. This model complements NREL’s existing resource models and supports the deployment of an additional clean energy generation technology. The model was applied to Mesa, Arizona to find feasible sites for a small-scale vertical wind farm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pattern formation and flocking for particles near the jamming transition on resource gradient substrates

Here, we numerically examine a bidisperse system of active and passive particles coupled to a resource substrate. The active particles deplete the resource at a fixed rate and move toward regions with higher resources, while all of the particles interact sterically with each other. We show that at high densities, this system exhibits a rich variety of pattern-forming phases along with directed motion or flocking as a function of the relative rates of resource absorption and consumption as well as the active to passive particle ratio. These include partial phase separation into rivers of active particles flowing through passive clusters, strongly phase separated states where the active particles induce crystallization of the passive particles, mixed jammed states, and fluctuating mixed fluid phases. For higher resource recovery rates, we demonstrate that the active particles can undergo motility-induced phase separation, while at high densities, there can be a coherent flock containing only active particles or a solid mixture of active and passive particles. The directed flocking motion typically shows a transient in which the flow switches among different directions before settling into one direction, and there is a critical density below which flocking does not occur. We map out the different phases as function of system density, resource absorption and recovery rates, and the ratio of active to passive particles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordinated resource allocation to plant growth–defense tradeoffs

Summary Plant resource allocation patterns often reveal tradeoffs that favor growth (G) over defense (D), or vice versa. Ecologists most often explain G–D tradeoffs through principles of economic optimality, in which negative trait correlations are attributed to the reconciliation of fitness costs. Recently, researchers in molecular biology have developed ‘big data’ resources including multi‐omic (e.g. transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic) studies that describe the cellular processes controlling gene expression in model species. In this synthesis, we bridge ecological theory with discoveries in multi‐omics biology to better understand how selection has shaped the mechanisms of G–D tradeoffs. Multi‐omic studies reveal strategically coordinated patterns in resource allocation that are enabled by phytohormone crosstalk and transcriptional signal cascades. Coordinated resource allocation justifies the framework of optimality theory, while providing mechanistic insight into the feedbacks and control hubs that calibrate G–D tradeoff commitments. We use the existing literature to describe the coordinated resource allocation hypothesis (CoRAH) that accounts for balanced cellular controls during the expression of G–D tradeoffs, while sustaining stored resource pools to buffer the impacts of future stresses. The integrative mechanisms of the CoRAH unify the supply‐ and demand‐side perspectives of previous G–D tradeoff theories.

Monson, Russell K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Case For Intra-rack Resource Disaggregation in HPC

The expected halt of traditional technology scaling is motivating increased heterogeneity in high-performance computing (HPC) systems with the emergence of numerous specialized accelerators. As heterogeneity increases, so does the risk of underutilizing expensive hardware resources if we preserve today’s rigid node configuration and reservation strategies. This has sparked interest in resource disaggregation to enable finer-grain allocation of hardware resources to applications. However, there is currently no data-driven study of what range of disaggregation is appropriate in HPC. To that end, we perform a detailed analysis of key metrics sampled in NERSC’s Cori, a production HPC system that executes a diverse open-science HPC workload. In addition, we profile a variety of deep-learning applications to represent an emerging workload. We show that for a rack (cabinet) configuration and applications similar to Cori, a central processing unit with intra-rack disaggregation has a 99.5% probability to find all resources it requires inside its rack. In addition, ideal intra-rack resource disaggregation in Cori could reduce memory and NIC resources by 5.36% to 69.01% and still satisfy the worst-case average rack utilization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

wa-hls4ml: A Benchmark and Surrogate Models for hls4ml Resource and Latency Estimation

As machine learning (ML) is increasingly implemented in hardware to address real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced toolchains has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as hardware synthesis, are becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To mitigate these emerging constraints, multiple efforts have been undertaken to develop an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of ML accelerator architectures. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of over 680,000 fully connected and convolutional neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, and the average performance across a subset of the dataset. Additionally, we introduce GNN- and transformer-based surrogate models that predict latency and resources for ML accelerators. We present the architecture and performance of the models and find that the models generally predict latency and resources for the 75% percentile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset.

Hawks, Benjamin [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157000288↗
DOE OSTI2015

Recovery Act: Analysis of Low-Temperature Utilization of Geothermal Resources (Final Technical Report)

Full realization of the potential of what might be considered “low-grade” geothermal resources will require that we examine many more uses for the heat than traditional electricity generation. To demonstrate that geothermal energy truly has the potential to be a national energy source we will be designing, assessing, and evaluating innovative uses for geothermal-produced water such as hybrid biomass-geothermal cogeneration of electricity and district heating and efficiency improvements to the use of cellulosic biomass in addition to utilization of geothermal in district heating for community redevelopment projects. The objectives of this project were: 1) to perform a techno-economic analysis of the integration and utilization potential of low-temperature geothermal sources. Innovative uses of low-enthalpy geothermal water were designed and examined for their ability to offset fossil fuels and decrease CO 2 emissions. 2) To perform process optimizations and economic analyses of processes that can utilize low-temperature geothermal fluids. These processes included electricity generation using biomass and district heating systems. 3) To scale up and generalize the results of three case study locations to develop a regionalized model of the utilization of low-temperature geothermal resources. A national-level, GIS-based, low-temperature geothermal resource supply model was developed and used to develop a series of national supply curves. We performed an in-depth analysis of the low-temperature geothermal resources that dominate the eastern half of the United States. The final products of this study include 17 publications, an updated version of the cost estimation software GEOPHIRES, and direct-use supply curves for low-temperature utilization of geothermal resources. The supply curves for direct use geothermal include utilization from known hydrothermal, undiscovered hydrothermal, and near-hydrothermal EGS resources and presented these results at the Stanford Geothermal Workshop. We also have incorporated our wellbore model into TOUGH2-EGS and began coding TOUGH2-EGS with the wellbore model into GEOPHIRES as a reservoir thermal drawdown option. Additionally, case studies for the WVU and Cornell campuses were performed to assess the potential for district heating and cooling at these two eastern U.S. sites.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation

Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price risk in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Improvements in ORIGEN Resource Readers

As part of the effort to modernize the ORIGEN depletion code [1], various “resources” have been created to store the fundamental nuclear data required for ORIGEN calculations, such as fission yields, decay data, and cross sections. The resources provide a convenient interface to load the same data from various file formats. Resources can be used directly in unit conversions (e.g., the decay resource can be used to convert atoms to activity) and are the fundamental input used to create an ORIGEN library, which is a fixed data collection of a specific set of nuclides and transitions. This report focuses on the extension of the yield resource and the decay resource, which allow ENDF-formatted nuclear data files [2] to be read directly.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Facility Location Optimization Model for COVID-19 Resources

In response to anticipated resource shortfalls related to the treatment and testing of COVID-19, many communities are planning to build additional facilities to increase capacity. These facilities include field hospitals, testing centers, mobile manufacturing units, and distribution centers. In many cases, these facilities are intended to be temporary and are designed to meet an immediate need. When deciding where to place new facilities many factors need to be considered, including the feasibility of potential locations, existing resource availability, anticipated demand, and accessibility between patients and the new facility. In this project, a facility location optimization model was developed to integrate these key pieces of information to help decision makers identify the best place, or places, to build a facility to meet anticipated resource demands. The facility location optimization model uses the location of existing resources and the anticipated resource demand at each location to minimize the distance a patient must travel to get to the resource they need. The optimization formulation is presented below. The model was designed to operate at the county scale, where patients are grouped per county. This assumption can be modified to integrate other scales or include individual patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Natural Resources Assessment for the SNS Second Target Station, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is a leading institution in advanced materials, supercomputing, neutrons, and nuclear science. As a research laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for DOE, ORNL has national priorities in energy, security, and scientific discovery that necessitate facility improvements and expansions. DOE is also committed to environmental stewardship. The laboratory is located on the ~32,000-acre Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), much of which is categorized as a National Environmental Research Park and a state Wildlife Management Area. DOE works with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA), Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), US Department of Agriculture, and other agencies to serve as an effective steward of the ORR. Accordingly, project managers must conform to environmental regulations, agreements, and policies at the federal, state, and institutional levels. Per 40 CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) 1508.14, potential effects on research and science education on the National Environmental Research Park represent potential impacts of federal actions. Moreover, federal actions that affect the quantity and quality of hunting opportunities and deer reduction harvest on the Oak Ridge Wildlife Management Area must be considered whenever other aspects of the human environment (as defined by NEPA) are affected. The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is a premiere facility at ORNL that provides advanced capabilities in neutron scattering to promote new discoveries and research opportunities in material sciences, physics, chemistry, biological sciences, and others. A conceptual design for a Second Target Station (STS) has been in consideration for several years. The STS is intended to complement and enhance existing ORNL capabilities, notably research and exploration of complex materials. The proposed STS will involve development of existing natural areas on the ORR, which might contain sensitive resources that require mitigation or avoidance in accordance with existing policies and regulation. This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources within the STS project area. At the time of this report, the proposed STS project consisted of an operations area comprising 55.4 acres (22.4 ha) and a total review area for potential construction comprising ~224 acres (90.6 ha). The review area is located primarily within forested natural areas of the ORR with minor development in the form of power-line rights-of-way and secondary/graveled roads (Figure 1). The primary goal was to evaluate potential effects on sensitive resources that might result from development of the STS. In addition to onthe-ground surveys during summer 2009 and fall 2019 to summer 2020 by ORNL Natural Resources Management Program and Aquatic Ecology Group staff, this report makes use of historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995 to present) data from additional confirmed sources (e.g., TDEC). Likewise, forest conditions were compiled primarily from a 2013 forest inventory effort for Forest Management Compartment 17 and supplemented with limited ground observations in 2019. The individuals who obtained and compiled the data that are presented here are familiar with and routinely assess sensitive resources on the ORR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coastal Community Resiliency Enhancement Using Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) Resources and Networked Microgrids

Enormous challenges are inherent in the operation of modern distribution grids. In particular, distribution feeders can be severely compromised under extreme conditions such as large-scale weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, and other types of natural disasters). To combat this problem, they turn to local energy support from distributed energy resources, such as solar and wind, marine hydrolinetic (MHK), and other types of energy. In this report, we investigate the actual characteristics of MHK resources to enhance coastal community resiliency. Two typical types of MHK resources (i.e., wave and tidal resources) illustrate the coastal resilience enhancement framework. By identifying their operational characteristics, such as target time-scales and potential power generation variations, we detail a holistic coastal community resiliency enhancement framework that integrates both optimization and control efforts. The optimization problem is formulated to significantly minimize the power outage time at the critical infrastructures in coastal communities by implementing multiple autonomous and dynamic microgrids around MHK resources. Therefore, during severe power outages caused by natural disasters (e.g., floods, hurricanes), the coastal community load profiles can be satisfied using local MHK resources in each microgrid with limited or no power support from upstream power grids.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

CO 2 Storage Site Screening Platform Development and CO 2 Storage Resource Analysis in SECARB Offshore Reservoirs Using SAS Viya

A major goal of the SECARB Offshore Partnership (DE-FE0031557) is to screen deep saline aquifers and hydrocarbon reservoirs in the central Gulf of Mexico for CO 2 sequestration and CO 2 -enhanced oil and gas recovery (EOR/EGR) and estimate the corresponding CO 2 storage resources for select reservoirs. CO 2 storage potential associated with offshore CO 2 -EOR is considerable and likely represents “low hanging fruit” for near-term CO 2 storage given the in-place infrastructure in the region. It is for these reasons that this assessment focuses on oil and gas fields. To this end, three major objectives have been completed and include (1) managing geological data derived from different sources, (2) building a reservoir screening platform for CO 2 storage, and (3) ranking the reservoirs based on the estimated CO 2 storage resources. The SAS ® Viya platform was used for data management and analytics. The Viya platform is a cloud service platform that provides data integration, data management, quick analytics, data visualization, machine learning functions, and application programming interfaces (APIs) for multi-programming languages. Different sources of data containing geologic information, reservoir properties, and EOR/EGR information were collected, cleaned, formatted, and loaded into the SAS ® Viya platform for evaluation. The major geological characteristics of both shelf and deep-water areas of the central Gulf were examined and compared to define the appropriate reservoir screening criteria. Next, a CO 2 storage site screening system was built in the SAS ® Viya platform with the pre-defined criteria. Finally, the CO 2 storage resources of the screened reservoirs were calculated and reported at the BOEM field level to identify fields with the highest estimated CO 2 storage resource. The fields with the largest total estimated CO 2 storage resource are located in the Mississippi Canyon protraction area. Due to proximity to the Mississippi Delta (indicative of less infrastructure) and large estimated CO 2 storage resources, future development activities may wish to focus efforts in the Mississippi Canyon protraction area.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗