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At least 325 records · Page 18

Scenarios of Building Energy Demand for China with a Detailed Regional Representation

Building energy consumption currently accounts for 28% of China’s total energy use and is expected to continue to grow induced by floorspace expansion, income growth, and population change. Fuel sources and building services are also evolving over time as well as across regions and building types. To understand sectoral and regional difference in building energy use and how socioeconomic, physical, and technological development influence the evolution of the Chinese building sector, this study developed a building energy use model for China downscaled into four climate regions under an integrated assessment framework. Three building types (rural residential, urban residential, and commercial) were modeled specifically in each climate region. Our study finds that the Cold and Hot Summer Cold Winter regions lead in total building energy use. The impact of climate change on heating energy use is more significant than that of cooling energy use in most climate regions. Both rural and urban households will experience fuel switch from fossil fuel to cleaner fuels. Commercial buildings will experience rapid growth in electrification and energy intensity. Improved understanding of Chinese buildings with climate change highlighted in this study will help policy makers develop targeted policies and prioritize building energy efficiency measures.

building energy use↗

Solar Training and Education Partnership for Underserved Populations

Solar Landscape’s STEP-UP program provided high quality solar installation training in partnership with community-based organizations (CBOs) in various regions within the U.S. Solar Landscape leveraged internal subject matter experts (SME’s) industry guidance and regional training assessments to provide customized training designed to support the growing solar and broader energy sector. Upon completion of the program, the team assisted trainees and nonprofit partners with connections to Solar Landscape contractors as well as local and National residential solar installation companies to facilitate placement into careers and apprenticeships.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Artificial Intelligence for Enhancing Multiscale Analysis: Buildings Focus

This project aims to develop multi-scale building energy data, potentially improving the representation of the U.S. buildings sector in GCAM-USA, an U.S.-focused human-energy-Earth systems model. Existing building energy datasets are typically limited to national or regional levels, which constrains the ability of models to capture fine-scale human-energy-Earth systems interactions and reduces their relevance for decision-making on issues such as energy security, resilience, and energy planning. By leveraging AI and advanced data integration methods, this work fuses multiple existing datasets to enhance the physical and geographic representation of both residential and commercial building energy use. So far, progress includes processing residential building data, designing the data structure for commercial buildings, and testing AI approaches for integrating datasets and addressing spatial-temporal gaps. This effort can not only advances GCAM-USA’s capability in modeling the buildings sector but also supports broader DOE missions, such as developing digital testbeds, enhancing grid resilience analysis, and improving building–energy system modeling at decision-relevant scales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Small Town Energy Program (STEP) (Final Report revised)

University Park, Maryland (“UP”) is a small town of 2,540 residents, 919 homes, 2 churches, 1 school, 1 town hall, and 1 breakthrough community energy efficiency initiative: the Small Town Energy Program (“STEP”). STEP was developed with a mission to “create a model community energy transformation program that serves as a roadmap for other small towns across the U.S.” STEP first launched in January 2011 in UP and expanded in July 2012 to the neighboring communities of Hyattsville, Riverdale Park, and College Heights Estates, MD. STEP, which concluded in July 2013, was generously supported by a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The STEP model was designed for replication in other resource-constrained small towns similar to University Park - a sector largely neglected to date in federal and state energy efficiency programs. STEP provided a full suite of activities for replication, including: energy audits and retrofits for residential buildings, financial incentives, a community-based social marketing backbone and local community delivery partners. STEP also included the highly innovative use of an “Energy Coach” who worked one-on-one with clients throughout the program. Please see www.smalltownenergy.org for more information. In less than three years, STEP achieved the following results in University Park: • 30% of community households participated voluntarily in STEP; • 25% of homes received a Home Performance with ENERGY STAR assessment; • 16% of households made energy efficiency improvements to their home; • 64% of households proceeded with an upgrade after their assessment; • 9 Full Time Equivalent jobs were created or retained, and 39 contractors worked on STEP over the course of the project. Estimated Energy Savings - Program Totals kWh Electricity 204,407 Therms Natural Gas 24,800 Gallons of Oil 2,581 Total Estimated MMBTU Saved (Source Energy) 5,474 Total Estimated Annual Energy Cost Savings $\$61,343$ STEP clients who had a home energy upgrade invested on average $\$4,500$, resulting in a 13% reduction in annual energy use and utility bill savings of $325. Rebates and incentives covered 40%-50% of retrofit cost, resulting in an average simple payback of about 7 years. STEP has created a handbook in which are assembled all the key elements that went into the design and delivery of STEP. The target audiences for the handbook include interested citizens, elected officials and municipal staff who want to establish and run their own efficiency program within a small community or neighborhood, using elements, materials and lessons from STEP.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks: Q1 2021

Based on our bottom-up modeling, the Q1 2021 PV and energy storage cost benchmarks are: $\$2.65$ per watt DC (WDC) (or $\$3.05$/WAC) for residential PV systems, 1.56/WDC (or $\$1.79$/WAC) for commercial rooftop PV systems, $\$1.64$/WDC (or $\$1.88$/WAC) for commercial ground-mount PV systems, $\$0.83$/WDC (or $\$1.13$/WAC) for fixed-tilt utility-scale PV systems, $\$0.89$/WDC (or $\$1.20$/WAC) for one-axis-tracking utility-scale PV systems, $\$30,326$-$\$33,618$ for a 7.15-kWDC residential PV system with 5 kW/12.5 kWh nameplate of storage, $\$2.04$ - $\$2.10$ million for a 1-MWDC commercial ground-mount PV system colocated with 600 kW/2.4 MWhusable of storage, $\$166$ - $\$167$ million for a 100-MWDC one-axis tracker PV system colocated with 60 MW/240 MWhusable of storage. Between 2020 and 2021, there were 3.3% ($\$0.0$9/W), 10.7% ($\$0.19$/W), and 12.3% ($\$0.13$/W) reductions (in 2020 USD) in the residential, commercial rooftop, and utility-scale (one-axis) PV system cost benchmarks respectively. Balance of system (BOS) costs have either increased or remained flat across sectors, year-on-year, unlike in previous benchmark reports, which generally have reported declining BOS costs. The increase in BOS cost has been offset by a 17% reduction in module cost. Overall, modeled PV installed costs across the three sectors have declined compared to our Q1 2020 system costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Emerging Technologies: Integrating with the Power Grid of Tomorrow

Traditional interactions between the built environment and the electric utility industry are changing rapidly. Rather than a one-way flow of electricity where utilities produce and transmit the electricity that buildings then consume, buildings are becoming efficient energy consumers that can dynamically adjust loads to ensure grid-provided energy is used effectively. Buildings are transitioning to now be at the intersection of forecasting loads and demand response, forecasting and control of output from distributed generation and renewable energy systems, and the optimal dispatch of energy storage. Because residential and commercial buildings consume 74.7% of the electricity generated in the United States, grid-integrated buildings represent an important solution to addressing challenges facing the power sector. In addition to the electric power grid, buildings will be increasingly interactive with water, transportation, and telecommunications networks, and will also more strongly affect surrounding buildings and other civic infrastructure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cross-sectoral synergies for household energy savings: the role of electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and remote work

Over the past two decades, new technologies and behavioral shifts – such as electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and increased work-from-home practices – have reshaped residential electricity consumption and cost. However, their combined or synergistic impact on a household’s electricity cost remains unexplored. Leveraging data from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, this study uses a structural equation model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. Results indicate that adopting both EVs and PV reduces electricity costs by 31% despite a 16% rise in consumption. When combined with stay-at-home practices, households still experience a 13% cost reduction, even with a 25% increase in electricity consumption. In conclusion, these findings suggest that financial savings are not merely a byproduct of adopting new technologies or behavioral changes but could serve as a key consideration for household contemplating engagement with multiple modern energy solutions simultaneously.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Mapping the Supply Chain for Room Air Conditioning Compressors

In this study, we have conducted an analysis of the global supply chain for compressors used in residential air conditioning systems. We collected a range of market data on compressor specifications and trading patterns in order to map out the roles of key countries and companies in this sector and to identify future trends for this rapidly growing and changing market. We also discussed the challenges of manufacturing more efficient compressors utilizing low-global warming potential, next-generation refrigerants with contacts both in industry as well as international organizations working in this area. challenges of manufacturing more efficient compressors utilizing low-global warming potential, next-generation refrigerants with contacts both in industry as well as international organizations working in this area.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Mobilizing the anti-duck brigade: technology and market pathways for load-shifting demand response in California

With rapidly increasing renewable power generation, the California electricity system is experiencing the impacts of the so-called “duck curve,” with occasional over-generation in the middle of the day, followed by rapid ramping of net demand producing a sharp evening peak. Mitigating this pattern will require novel demand-side management approaches to shifting demand away from high net demand periods and toward high renewables generation periods. In this paper, drawing from more than 200,000 individual residential, commercial, and industrial customers’ hourly smart meter data, we disaggregate load shapes for certain key end-uses and then average the results across a highly granular set of customer segments by sector, building type, demand profile and geographic region, to yield a library of characteristic daily load profiles (“clusters”) for different end-uses and seasons. By categorizing the library into particularly desirable or undesirable load shapes in the context of mitigating the duck curve, we can gain insight into specific technologies, seasonal effects, or site-level attributes that may serve as helpful levers to use in developing future load-shifting programs. Based on these insights, we develop recommendations on technologies and new market structures and incentives that can create a future demand curve that more closely matches renewable generation patterns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Distributed Solar Technoeconomic Agent Characteristics dSTAC

These data files summarize key techno-economic metrics used in the NREL dGen model for modeling adoption of distributed solar by representative residential commercial and industrial entities for each county in the continental United States. As described further below many of the metrics are derived as summaries of outputs from dGen. Specifically each county and sector in these file are summarized as a single agent that is the weighted average of 10 statistically-representative agents weighed by the statistical frequency. The dGen simulation used to derive this dataset was conducted in 2018 using the NREL 2018 Standard Scenario Mid Case assumptions https//www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71913.pdf.

agent-based modeling↗

Renewable Energy for Industrial Environmental Management

Costs for renewable energy technologies have declined rapidly in the past decade and their use for residential, commercial, and utility scale electricity has grown exponentially as they become cost competitive. Simultaneously, industrial and manufacturing processes have been increasingly seeking ways to reduce emissions and operational costs in highly competitive sectors. With these combined drivers of lower cost and reduced environmental impact, renewable energy may become a viable energy provider for industrial processes such as oil and gas, mining, chemical refining, food production, and manufacturing. Renewable energy technologies may also partner with other reduced emission energy sources, such as small modular nuclear reactors and carbon capture and utilization, to create cleaner and circular industrial systems for reduced resource use. The Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA), which is a partnership of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and five universities and others, has been studying to potential for application of clean energy technologies to the heterogenous energy demands in industry. Dr. Jill Engel-Cox will present an overview of NREL and JISEA, the status and potential future of renewable energy technologies, and collaborations with the oil and gas industry and other industrial sectors to improve their environmental performance and reduce operational costs.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine

The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. Here, the study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO 2 pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Efficient Multifamily Homes in a Hot-Humid Climate by Atlantic Housing Partners

With assistance from the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) and its Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Atlantic Housing Partners (AHP) has implemented a high performance, systems engineered package of measures. This report demonstrates how the initiative achieves Building America (BA) goals of 30%-50% energy savings. Specifically, the goals are documented as being achieved in the new construction multifamily housing sector in the hot humid climate. Results from energy modeling of the high performance package are presented. The role of utility allowance calculations, used as part of the low-income housing tax credit process, to value those energy savings is discussed, as is customer satisfaction with heat pump water heaters.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Efficient Multifamily Homes in a Hot Humid Climate by Atlantic Housing Partners

With assistance from the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) and its Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Atlantic Housing Partners (AHP) has implemented a high performance, systems engineered package of measures. This report demonstrates how the initiative achieves Building America (BA) goals of 30%-50% energy savings. Specifically, the goals are documented as being achieved in the new construction multifamily housing sector in the hot humid climate. Results from energy modeling of the high performance package are presented. The role of utility allowance calculations, used as part of the low-income housing tax credit process, to value those energy savings is discussed, as is customer satisfaction with heat pump water heaters.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On the Path to SunShot - Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in Financing Solar

Financial innovations—independent of technology-cost improvements—could cut the cost of solar energy to customers and businesses by 30%–60% (see Feldman and Bolinger 2016). Financing is critical to solar deployment, because the costs of solar technologies are paid up front, while their benefits are realized over decades. Solar financing has been shaped by the government incentives designed to accelerate solar deployment. This is particularly true for federal tax incentives, which have spawned complex tax-equity structures that monetize tax benefits for project sponsors who otherwise could not use them efficiently. Although these structures have helped expand solar deployment, they are relatively costly and inefficient. This has spurred solar stakeholders to develop lower-cost financing solutions such as securitization of solar project portfolios, solar-specific loan products, and methods for incorporating residential PV’s value into home values. To move solar further toward an unsubsidized SunShot future, additional financial innovation must occur. Development of a larger, more mature U.S. solar industry will likely increase financial transparency and investor confidence, which in turn will enable simpler, lower-cost financing methods. Utility-scale solar might be financed more like conventional generation assets are today, non-residential solar might be financed more like a new roof, and residential solar might be financed more like an expensive appliance. Assuming a constant, SunShot-level installed PV system price, such financing innovations could reduce PV’s LCOE by an estimated 30%–60% (depending on the sector) compared with historical financing approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗