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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

THE STRIKINGLY SIMILAR RELATION BETWEEN SATELLITE AND CENTRAL GALAXIES AND THEIR DARK MATTER HALOS SINCE z = 2

Satellite galaxies in rich clusters are subject to numerous physical processes that can significantly influence their evolution. However, the typical L* satellite galaxy resides in much lower mass galaxy groups, where the processes capable of altering their evolution are generally weaker and have had less time to operate. To investigate the extent to which satellite and central galaxy evolution differs, we separately model the stellar mass-halo mass (M{sub *}-M{sub h} ) relation for these two populations over the redshift interval 0 < z < 1. This relation for central galaxies is constrained by the galaxy stellar mass function while the relation for satellite galaxies is constrained against recent measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function (2PCF). Our approach does not rely on the abundance matching technique but instead adopts a flexible functional form for the relation between satellite galaxy stellar mass and subhalo mass, where subhalo mass is considered as the maximum mass that a subhalo has ever reached in its merger history, M{sub peak}. At z {approx} 0 the satellites, on average, have {approx}10% larger stellar masses at fixed M{sub peak} compared to central galaxies of the same halo mass (although the two relations are consistent at 2{sigma}-3{sigma} for M{sub peak} {approx}> 10{sup 13} M{sub Sun }). This is required in order to reproduce the observed stellar mass-dependent 2PCF and satellite fractions. At low masses our model slightly under-predicts the correlation function at {approx}1 Mpc scales. At z {approx} 1 the satellite and central galaxy M{sub *}-M{sub h} relations are consistent within the errors, and the model provides an excellent fit to the clustering data. At present, the errors on the clustering data at z {approx} 2 are too large to constrain the satellite model. A simple model in which satellite and central galaxies share the same M{sub *}-M{sub h} relation is able to reproduce the extant z {approx} 2 clustering data. We speculate that the striking similarity between the satellite and central galaxy M{sub *}-M{sub h} relations since z {approx} 2 arises because the central galaxy relation evolves very weakly with time and because the stellar mass of the typical satellite galaxy has not changed significantly since it was accreted. The reason for this last point is not yet entirely clear, but it is likely related to the fact that the typical {approx}L* satellite galaxy resides in a poor group where transformation processes are weak and lifetimes are short.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

OzDES Reverberation Mapping Programme: Mg ii lags and R − L relation

ABSTRACT The correlation between the broad line region radius and continuum luminosity (R–L relation) of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is critical for single-epoch mass estimates of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). At z ∼ 1–2, where AGN activity peaks, the R–L relation is constrained by the reverberation mapping (RM) lags of the Mg ii line. We present 25 Mg ii lags from the Australian Dark Energy Survey RM project based on 6 yr of monitoring. We define quantitative criteria to select good lag measurements and verify their reliability with simulations based on both the damped random walk stochastic model and the rescaled, resampled versions of the observed light curves of local, well-measured AGN. Our sample significantly increases the number of Mg ii lags and extends the R–L relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. The relative iron line strength $\mathcal {R}_{\rm Fe}$ has little impact on the R–L relation. The best-fitting Mg iiR–L relation has a slope α = 0.39 ± 0.08 with an intrinsic scatter $\sigma _{\rm rl} = 0.15^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ . The slope is consistent with previous measurements and shallower than the H β R–L relation. The intrinsic scatter of the new R–L relation is substantially smaller than previous studies and comparable to the intrinsic scatter of the H β R–L relation. Our new R–L relation will enable more precise single-epoch mass estimates and SMBH demographic studies at cosmic noon.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing equation of state-independent relations for neutron stars with nonparametric models

Relations between neutron star properties that do not depend on the nuclear equation of state offer insights on neutron star physics and have practical applications in data analysis. Such relations are obtained by fitting to a range of phenomenological or nuclear physics equation of state models, each of which may have varying degrees of accuracy. In this study we revisit commonly used relations and reassess them with a very flexible set of phenomenological nonparametric equation of state models that are based on Gaussian processes. Our models correspond to two sets: equations of state which mimic hadronic models, and equations of state with rapidly changing behavior that resemble phase transitions. Here we quantify the accuracy of relations under both sets and discuss their applicability with respect to expected upcoming statistical uncertainties of astrophysical observations. We further propose a goodness-of-fit metric which provides an estimate for the systematic error introduced by using the relation to model a certain equation-of-state set. Overall, the nonparametric distribution is more poorly fit with existing relations, with the I–Love–Q relations retaining the highest degree of universality. Fits degrade for relations involving the tidal deformability, such as the binary-Love and compactness-Love relations, and when introducing phase transition phenomenology. For most relations, systematic errors are comparable to current statistical uncertainties under the nonparametric equation of state distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impact of Three-Phase Relative Permeability and Hysteresis Models on Forecasts of Storage Associated With CO 2 -EOR

Geological CO 2 sequestration in conjunction with enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) includes complex multiphase flow processes compared to CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Two of the most critical factors affecting multiphase flow in CO 2 -EOR are three-phase relative permeability and associated hysteresis, both of which are difficult to measure and are usually represented by numerical interpolation models. The purpose of this research is to improve understanding of (1) the relative impacts of different three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO 2 trapping mechanisms, and (2) uncertainty associated with these two factors. Four different three-phase relative permeability models and three hysteresis models were applied to simulations of an active CO 2 -EOR site, the SACROC unit located in western Texas. To eliminate potential bias of deterministic parameters, we utilized a sequential Gaussian simulation technique to generate 50 realizations to describe heterogeneity of porosity and permeability, based on data obtained from well logs and seismic survey. Simulation results of forecasted CO 2 storage suggested that (1) the choice of three-phase relative permeability model and hysteresis model led to noticeable impacts on forecasted CO 2 sequestration capacity; (2) impacts of three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO 2 trapping are small during the CO 2 -EOR injection period, and increase during the post-EOR CO 2 injection period; (3) the specific choice of hysteresis model is more important relative to the choice of three-phase relative permeability model; and (4) using the recommended three-phase WAG (Water-Alternating-Gas) hysteresis model may increase the impact of three-phase relative permeability models and uncertainty due to heterogeneity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Testing universal relations of neutron stars with a nonlinear matter-gravity coupling theory

Due to our ignorance of the equation of state (EOS) beyond nuclear density, there is still no unique theoretical model for neutron stars (NSs). It is therefore surprising that universal EOS-independent relations connecting different physical quantities of NSs can exist. Lau et al. found that the frequency of the f-mode oscillation, the mass, and the moment of inertia are connected by universal relations. More recently, Yagi and Yunes discovered the I-Love-Q universal relations among the mass, the moment of inertia, the Love number, and the quadrupole moment. In this paper, we study these universal relations in the Eddington-inspired Born-Infeld (EiBI) gravity. This theory differs from general relativity (GR) significantly only at high densities due to the nonlinear coupling between matter and gravity. It thus provides us an ideal case to test how robust the universal relations of NSs are with respect to the change of the gravity theory. Due to the apparent EOS formulation of EiBI gravity developed recently by Delsate and Steinhoff, we are able to study the universal relations in EiBI gravity using the same techniques as those in GR. We find that the universal relations in EiBI gravity are essentially the same as those in GR. Our work shows that, within the currently viable coupling constant, there exists at least one modified gravity theory that is indistinguishable from GR in view of the unexpected universal relations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Urban relatives ameliorate survival disparities for genitourinary cancer in rural patients

Patients living in rural areas have worse cancer-specific outcomes. This study examines the effect of family-based social capital on genitourinary cancer survival. We hypothesized that rural patients with urban relatives have improved survival relative to rural patients without urban family. We examined rural and urban based Utah individuals diagnosed with genitourinary cancers between 1968 and 2018. Familial networks were determined using the Utah Population Database. Patients and relatives were classified as rural or urban based on 2010 rural–urban commuting area codes. Overall survival was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 24,746 patients with genitourinary cancer with a median follow-up of 8.72 years. Rural cancer patients without an urban relative had the worst outcomes with cancer-specific survival hazard ratios (HRs) at 5 and 10 years of 1.33 (95% CI 1.10–1.62) and 1.46 (95% CI 1.24–1.73), respectively relative to urban patients. Rural patients with urban first-degree relatives had improved survival with 5- and 10-year survival HRs of 1.21 (95% CI 1.06–1.40) and 1.16 (95% CI 1.03–1.31), respectively. Our findings suggest rural patients who have been diagnosed with a genitourinary cancer have improved survival when having relatives in urban centers relative to rural patients without urban relatives. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms through which having an urban family member contributes to improved cancer outcomes for rural patients. Better characterization of this affect may help inform policies to reduce urban–rural cancer disparities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Improved Sensitivity Relations in State Constrained Optimal Control

Sensitivity relations in optimal control provide an interpretation of the costate trajectory and the Hamiltonian, evaluated along an optimal trajectory, in terms of gradients of the value function. While sensitivity relations are a straightforward consequence of standard transversality conditions for state constraint free optimal control problems formulated in terms of control-dependent differential equations with smooth data, their verification for problems with either pathwise state constraints, nonsmooth data, or for problems where the dynamic constraint takes the form of a differential inclusion, requires careful analysis. In this paper we establish validity of both ‘full’ and ‘partial’ sensitivity relations for an adjoint state of the maximum principle, for optimal control problems with pathwise state constraints, where the underlying control system is described by a differential inclusion. The partial sensitivity relation interprets the costate in terms of partial Clarke subgradients of the value function with respect to the state variable, while the full sensitivity relation interprets the couple, comprising the costate and Hamiltonian, as the Clarke subgradient of the value function with respect to both time and state variables. These relations are distinct because, for nonsmooth data, the partial Clarke subdifferential does not coincide with the projection of the (full) Clarke subdifferential on the relevant coordinate space. We show for the first time (even for problems without state constraints) that a costate trajectory can be chosen to satisfy the partial and full sensitivity relations simultaneously. The partial sensitivity relation in this paper is new for state constraint problems, while the full sensitivity relation improves on earlier results in the literature (for optimal control problems formulated in terms of Lipschitz continuous multifunctions), because a less restrictive inward pointing hypothesis is invoked in the proof, and because it is validated for a stronger set of necessary conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

The FMOS-COSMOS survey of star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 1.6. II. The mass-metallicity relation and the dependence on star formation rate and dust extinction

We investigate the relationships between stellar mass, gas-phase oxygen abundance (metallicity), star formation rate (SFR), and dust content of star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 1.6 using Subaru/FMOS spectroscopy in the COSMOS field. The mass-metallicity (MZ) relation at z ∼ 1.6 is steeper than the relation observed in the local universe. The steeper MZ relation at z ∼ 1.6 is mainly due to evolution in the stellar mass where the MZ relation begins to turnover and flatten. This turnover mass is 1.2 dex larger at z ∼ 1.6. The most massive galaxies at z ∼ 1.6 (∼10{sup 11} M {sub ☉}) are enriched to the level observed in massive galaxies in the local universe. The MZ relation we measure at z ∼ 1.6 supports the suggestion of an empirical upper metallicity limit that does not significantly evolve with redshift. We find an anti-correlation between metallicity and SFR for galaxies at a fixed stellar mass at z ∼ 1.6, which is similar to trends observed in the local universe. We do not find a relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR that is independent of redshift; rather, our data suggest that there is redshift evolution in this relation. We examine the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and dust extinction, and find that at a fixed stellar mass, dustier galaxies tend to be more metal rich. From examination of the stellar masses, metallicities, SFRs, and dust extinctions, we conclude that stellar mass is most closely related to dust extinction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Consistency study of high- and low-accreting Mg ii quasars: no significant effect of the Fe ii to Mg ii flux ratio on the radius–luminosity relation dispersion

ABSTRACT We use observations of 66 reverberation-measured Mg ii quasars (QSOs) in the redshift range 0.36 ≤ z ≤ 1.686 – a subset of the 78 QSOs we previously studied that also have ${\cal R}_{\rm {Fe\, {\small II}}}$ (flux ratio parameter of UV Fe ii to Mg ii that is used as an accretion-rate proxy) measurements – to simultaneously constrain cosmological model parameters and QSO two-parameter and three-parameter radius–luminosity (R–L) relation parameters in six different cosmological models. We find that these QSO R–L relation parameters are independent of the assumed cosmological model and so these QSOs are standardizable through the R–L relations. Also: (1) With the two-parameter R–L relation, we find that the low-${\cal R}_{\rm {Fe\, {\small II}}}$ and high-${\cal R}_{\rm {Fe\, {\small II}}}$ data subsets obey the same R–L relation within the error bars. (2) Extending the two-parameter R–L relation to a three-parameter one does not result in the hoped-for reduction in the intrinsic dispersion of the R–L relation. (3) Neither of the three-parameter R–L relations provide a significantly better fit to the measurements than does the two-parameter R–L relation. These are promising results for the ongoing development of Mg ii cosmological probes. The first and third of these results differ significantly from those we found elsewhere from analyses of reverberation-measured H β QSOs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Weighing the giants– V. Galaxy cluster scaling relations

Here, we present constraints on the scaling relations of galaxy cluster X-ray luminosity, temperature and gas mass (and derived quantities) with mass and redshift, employing masses from robust weak gravitational lensing measurements. These are the first such results obtained from an analysis that simultaneously accounts for selection effects and the underlying mass function, and directly incorporates lensing data to constrain total masses. Our constraints on the scaling relations and their intrinsic scatters are in good agreement with previous studies, and reinforce a picture in which departures from self-similar scaling laws are primarily limited to cluster cores. However, the data are beginning to reveal new features that have implications for cluster astrophysics and provide new tests for hydrodynamical simulations. We find a positive correlation in the intrinsic scatters of luminosity and temperature at fixed mass, which is related to the dynamical state of the clusters. While the evolution of the nominal scaling relations over the redshift range 0.0 < z < 0.5 is consistent with self-similarity, we find tentative evidence that the luminosity and temperature scatters, respectively, decrease and increase with redshift. Physically, this likely related to the development of cool cores and the rate of major mergers. We also examine the scaling relations of redMaPPer richness and Compton Y from Planck . While the richness–mass relation is in excellent agreement with recent work, the measured Y–mass relation departs strongly from that assumed in the Planck cluster cosmology analysis. Furthermore, the latter result is consistent with earlier comparisons of lensing and Planck scaling relation-derived masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Erratum: Weighing the giants – V. Galaxy cluster scaling relations

We present constraints on the scaling relations of galaxy cluster X-ray luminosity, temperature and gas mass (and derived quantities) with mass and redshift, employing masses from robust weak gravitational lensing measurements. These are the first such results obtained from an analysis that simultaneously accounts for selection effects and the underlying mass function, and directly incorporates lensing data to constrain total masses. Our constraints on the scaling relations and their intrinsic scatters are in good agreement with previous studies, and reinforce a picture in which departures from self-similar scaling laws are primarily limited to cluster cores. However, the data are beginning to reveal new features that have implications for cluster astrophysics and provide new tests for hydrodynamical simulations. We find a positive correlation in the intrinsic scatters of luminosity and temperature at fixed mass, which is related to the dynamical state of the clusters. While the evolution of the nominal scaling relations over the redshift range 0.0 < z < 0.5 is consistent with self similarity, we find tentative evidence that the luminosity and temperature scatters respectively decrease and increase with redshift. Physically, this likely related to the development of cool cores and the rate of major mergers. We also examine the scaling relations of redMaPPer richness and Compton Y from Planck . While the richness{mass relation is in excellent agreement with recent work, the measured Y {mass relation departs strongly from that assumed in the Planck cluster cosmology analysis. Furthermore, the latter result is consistent with earlier comparisons of lensing and Planck scaling-relation-derived masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-280: Dose Evaluation in Using CT Density Versus Relative Stopping Power for Pencil Beam Planning and Treating IROC Proton Phantom

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate any effects of converted CT density variation in treatment planning system (TPS) of spot scanning proton therapy with an IROC proton prostate phantom at our new ProteusOne Proton Therapy Center. Methods: A proton prostate phantom was requested from the Imaging and Radiation Oncology Core Houston (IROC), The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, where GAF Chromic films and couples of thermo luminescent dosemeter (TLD) capsules in target and adjacent structures were embedded for imaging and dose monitoring. Various material such as PVC, PBT HI polystyrene as dosimetry inserts and acrylic were within phantom. Relative stopping power (SP) were provided. However our treatment planning system (TPS) doesn’t require SP instead relative density was converted relative to water in TPS. Phantom was irradiated and the results were compared with IROC measurements. The range of relative density was converted from SP into relative density of water as a new assigned material and tested. Results: The summary of TLD measurements of the prostate and femoral heads were well within 2% of the TPS and met the criteria established by IROC. The film at coronal plane was found to be shift in superior-inferior direction due to locking position of cylinder insert was off and was corrected. The converted CT density worked precisely to correlated relative stopping power. Conclusion: The proton prostate phantom provided by IROC is a useful methodology to evaluate our new commissioned proton pencil beam and TPS within certain confidence in proton therapy. The relative stopping power was converted into relative physical density relatively to water and the results were satisfied.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Activities and risk factors associated with fall-related injuries among US Army soldiers

Introduction Falls/near falls are the second leading cause of hospitalisation and outpatient visits among US Army soldiers. While numerous studies have evaluated fall-related or near fall-related injuries among elderly adults, few have evaluated this association among young adults. The objective of this study is to describe the characteristics and risk factors associated with fall-related or near fall-related injuries among male US Army soldiers. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of male US Army Airborne Division soldiers (n=5187). Electronic surveys captured demographic, lifestyle, physical training (PT), fitness and injury data during spring/summer of 2016. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors of fall-related or near fall-related injuries, adjusting for potential confounders. Results Primary findings indicated that activities and risk factors associated with fall-related or near fall-related injuries among soldiers included younger age (≤35 years), holding a job that required minimal lifting activities, slower 2-mile run times and not running during personal PT. Conclusions The findings from this study suggest that male US Army soldiers and other physically active men may benefit from (1) obtaining and/or maintaining higher aerobic endurance and muscular strength, and (2) training focused on preventing fall-related injuries during PT, road marching and sports/recreational activities. Moreover, prevention strategies and education should further target younger soldiers (≤35 years old), as younger age is not modifiable.

General & Internal Medicine↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the dispersion relations for parametric instabilities of parallel-propagating Alfven waves

We consider the dispersion relation for the parametric instabilities of large-amplitude circularly polarized Alfven waves propagating parallel to the ambient magnetic field. A linear perturbation analysis is employed, and the perturbations are taken to propagate along the ambient field. We present an analysis based on Floquet's theorem. The result is a hierarchy of dispersion relations. However, all the dispersion relations are found to be equivalent to the one obtained via the standard analysis; the differences between them are due only to how ca and k are defined. Thus we conclude that physically there is really only one dispersion relation, namely the 'electrostatic dispersion relation', which is in agreement with earlier works. However, we disagree with Vinas and Goldstein (1991), who obtained additional dispersion relations which they have called the 'electromagnetic dispersion relations'. Their additional dispersion relations are a consequence of first truncating the dispersion relation for obliquely propagating perturbations and then taking the limit of parallel-propagating perturbations.

Yajanti, Venku↗
NASA NTRS1998

On the Annual Frequency of Intense Hurricanes in Relation to the Extremes of ENSO and the Interludes Between Them

On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino, one can precisely identify some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997. The statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (interludes) are determined. Also, a comparison of the appearances of these extremes and interludes with yearly hurricane seasons shows that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42%) are El Nino-related (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season - June-November), 13 (27%) are La Nina-related, and 15 (31%) are interlude - related. Combining the two subgroups of La Nino- and interlude - related seasons into a single grouping called non-El Nino-related seasons, one finds that the non-El Nino-related seasons have a mean annual frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8, while the El Nino-related seasons have a mean annual frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3, and the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8% level of confidence. Therefore, during El Nino-related seasons, fewer intense hurricanes (typically, less than or equal to 2) should be expected, while durin(y non-El Nino-related seasons, more (typically, greater than or equal to 2) should be expected. Implications for the upcoming 1998 and future hurricane seasons are discussed.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Spaceborne Autonomous and Ground Based Relative Orbit Control for the TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X Formation

TerraSAR-X (TSX) and TanDEM-X (TDX) are two advanced synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites flying in formation. SAR interferometry allows a high resolution imaging of the Earth by processing SAR images obtained from two slightly different orbits. TSX operates as a repeat-pass interferometer in the first phase of its lifetime and will be supplemented after two years by TDX in order to produce digital elevation models (DEM) with unprecedented accuracy. Such a flying formation makes indeed possible a simultaneous interferometric data acquisition characterized by highly flexible baselines with range of variations between a few hundreds meters and several kilometers [1]. TSX has been successfully launched on the 15th of June, 2007. TDX is expected to be launched on the 31st of May, 2009. A safe and robust maintenance of the formation is based on the concept of relative eccentricity/inclination (e/i) vector separation whose efficiency has already been demonstrated during the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) [2]. Here, the satellite relative motion is parameterized by mean of relative orbit elements and the key idea is to align the relative eccentricity and inclination vectors to minimize the hazard of a collision. Previous studies have already shown the pertinence of this concept and have described the way of controlling the formation using an impulsive deterministic control law [3]. Despite the completely different relative orbit control requirements, the same approach can be applied to the TSX/TDX formation. The task of TDX is to maintain the close formation configuration by actively controlling its relative motion with respect to TSX, the leader of the formation. TDX must replicate the absolute orbit keeping maneuvers executed by TSX and also compensate the natural deviation of the relative e/i vectors. In fact the relative orbital elements of the formation tend to drift because of the secular non-keplerian perturbations acting on both satellites. The goal of the ground segment is thus to regularly correct this configuration by performing small orbit correction maneuvers on TDX. The ground station contacts are limited due to the geographic position of the station and the costs for contact time. Only with a polar ground station a contact visibility is possible every orbit for LEO satellites. TSX and TDX use only the Weilheim ground station (in the southern part of Germany) during routine operations. This station allows two scheduled contact per day for the nominal orbit configuration, meaning that the satellite conditions can be checked with an interval of 12 hours. While this limitation is usually not critical for single satellite operations, the visibility constraints drive the achievable orbit control accuracy for a LEO formation if a ground based approach is chosen. Along-track position uncertainties and maneuver execution errors affect the relative motion and can be compensated only after a ground station contact.

Ardaens, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Trends↗
NASA NTRS2022

Present-Day and Future PM 2.5 and O 3 -Related Global and Regional Premature Mortality in the EVAv6.0 Health Impact Assessment Model

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015–2050) global PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM 2.5 -related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM 2.5 -related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O 3 -related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality leads to 5.3–5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM 2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM 2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM 2.5 -related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Premature mortality↗