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NASA NTRS1997

SNAP: Simulating New Acquisition Processes

Simulation models of acquisition processes range in scope from isolated applications to the 'Big Picture' captured by SNAP technology. SNAP integrates a family of models to portray the full scope of acquisition planning and management activities, including budgeting, scheduling, testing and risk analysis. SNAP replicates the dynamic management processes that underlie design, production and life-cycle support. SNAP provides the unique 'Big Picture' capability needed to simulate the entire acquisition process and explore the 'what-if' tradeoffs and consequences of alternative policies and decisions. Comparison of cost, schedule and performance tradeoffs help managers choose the lowest-risk, highest payoff at each step in the acquisition process.

Alfeld, Louis E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Curvilinear Ground on Mars: the Search for Terrestrial Analogs

Curvilinear features on Mars have dimensions ranging from 0.5 to 18.6 km in length and 0.2 to 2.0 km in width; these landforms can occur as curving ridges and troughs, rimless arcuate depressions, or features with no apparent relief. The Martian curvilinear ground has a relatively consistent relationship to both regional and local geomorphology. These landforms are one of a suite of features that occur near the base of the regional slope that marks the transition from the cratered uplands to the northern plains. Based on morphologic similarities, numerous terrestrial analogs were proposed for these Martian features. These include gilgai, backwasting scarps, solifluction lobes, ice-cored ridges and glacial moraines. Process models for the origin of the curvilinear ground suggest that its formation probably involved several processes, including scarp retreat by backwasting.

Rossbacher, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Three-dimensional analytical model for the mixed layer depth

A three-dimensional (3D) semianalytical mixed-layer thermal inertia model for the mixed layer depth is developed, which includes the horizontal advection and diffusion processes modeled previously by Yan et al. (1991) in a one-dimensional (1D) model. The 3D model, which is based on the 3D thermal energy conservation equation, can be used as a supplement to the 1D model in the area where advection is important and for a finer resolution grid prediction. The model can be easily forced by remotely sensed data and is much simpler to compute than numerical 3D mixed-layer turbulence closure models. The new model was verified using data from the AVHRR/multichannel sea surface temperature data set and the Cooperative Ocean Atmosphere Data Set for the North Pacific Ocean, showing good agreement.

Yan, Xiao-Hai↗

NASA NTRS1994

Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling

This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.

Munson, John C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

Kimball, John↗

NASA NTRS1995

Verification and validation of a reliable multicast protocol

This paper describes the methods used to specify and implement a complex communications protocol that provides reliable delivery of data in multicast-capable, packet-switching telecommunication networks. The protocol, called the Reliable Multicasting Protocol (RMP), was developed incrementally by two complementary teams using a combination of formal and informal techniques in an attempt to ensure the correctness of the protocol implementation. The first team, called the Design team, initially specified protocol requirements using a variant of SCR requirements tables and implemented a prototype solution. The second team, called the V&V team, developed a state model based on the requirements tables and derived test cases from these tables to exercise the implementation. In a series of iterative steps, the Design team added new functionality to the implementation while the V&V team kept the state model in fidelity with the implementation through testing. Test cases derived from state transition paths in the formal model formed the dialogue between teams during development and served as the vehicles for keeping the model and implementation in fidelity with each other. This paper describes our experiences in developing our process model, details of our approach, and some example problems found during the development of RMP.

Callahan, John R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Toward fidelity between specification and implementation

Callahan, John R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Measurement of Initial Conditions at Nozzle Exit of High Speed Jets

The time averaged and unsteady density fields close to the nozzle exit (0.1 less than or = x/D less than or = 2, x: downstream distance, D: jet diameter) of unheated free jets at Mach numbers of 0.95, 1.4, and 1.8 were measured using a molecular Rayleigh scattering based technique. The initial thickness of shear layer and its linear growth rate were determined from time-averaged density survey and a modeling process, which utilized the Crocco-Busemann equation to relate density profiles to velocity profiles. The model also corrected for the smearing effect caused by a relatively long probe length in the measured density data. The calculated shear layer thickness was further verified from a limited hot-wire measurement. Density fluctuations spectra, measured using a two-Photomultiplier-tube technique, were used to determine evolution of turbulent fluctuations in various Strouhal frequency bands. For this purpose spectra were obtained from a large number of points inside the flow; and at every axial station spectral data from all radial positions were integrated. The radially-integrated fluctuation data show an exponential growth with downstream distance and an eventual saturation in all Strouhal frequency bands. The initial level of density fluctuations was calculated by extrapolation to nozzle exit.

Panda, J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AeroFusion: Data Fusion and Uncertainty Quantification for Entry Vehicles

AeroFusion is a NASA Langley initiative to incorporate advances in data science into the aerodynamic modeling process to improve efficiency. The effort can largely be categorized in three components: reduced-order modeling techniques, surrogate modeling techniques, and uncertainty quantification. By combining various methods from these categories, AeroFusion aims to reduce the development cost of aerodynamic models, both in terms of time and money.

Steven Snyder↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AeroFusion: Data Fusion and Uncertainty Quantification for Entry Vehicles

Steven Snyder↗

NASA NTRS2023

Evaluating Greenland Surface-Mass-Balance and Firn-Densification Data Using ICESat-2 Altimetry

Surface-mass-balance (SMB) and firn-densification (FD) models are widely used in altimetry studies as a tool to separate atmospheric-driven from ice-dynamics-driven ice-sheet mass changes and to partition observed volume changes into ice-mass changes and firn-air-content changes. Until now, SMB models have been principally validated based on comparison with ice core and weather station data or comparison with widely separated flight radar-survey flight lines. Firn-densification models have been primarily validated based on their ability to match net densification over decades, as recorded in firn cores, and the short-term time-dependent component of densification has rarely been evaluated at all. The advent of systematic ice-sheet-wide repeated ice-surface-height measurements from ICESat-2 (the Ice Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite, 2) allows us to measure the net surface-height change of the Greenland ice sheet at quarterly resolution and compare the measured surface-height differences directly with those predicted by three FD–SMB models: MARv3.5.11 (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional version 3.5.11) and GSFCv1.1 and GSFCv1.2 (the Goddard Space Flight Center FD–SMB models version 1.1 and 1.2). By segregating the data by season and elevation, and based on the timing and magnitude of modelled processes in areas where we expect minimal ice-dynamics-driven height changes, we investigate the models' accuracy in predicting atmospherically driven height changes. We find that while all three models do well in predicting the large seasonal changes in the low-elevation parts of the ice sheet where melt rates are highest, two of the models (MARv3.5.11 and GSFCv1.1) systematically overpredict, by around a factor of 2, the magnitude of height changes in the high-elevation parts of the ice sheet, particularly those associated with melt events. This overprediction seems to be associated with the melt sensitivity of the models in the high-elevation part of the ice sheet. The third model, GSFCv1.2, which has an updated high-elevation melt parameterization, avoids this overprediction.

Benjamin E. Smith↗

NASA NTRS1994

Re-engineering the mission life cycle with ABC and IDEF

The theory behind re-engineering a business process is to remove the non-value added activities thereby lowering the process cost. In order to achieve this, one must be able to identify where the non-value added elements are located which is not a trivial task. This is because the non-value added elements are often hidden in the form of overhead and/or pooled resources. In order to be able to isolate these non-value added processes from among the other processes, one must first decompose the overall top level process into lower layers of sub-processes. In addition, costing data must be assigned to each sub-process along with the value the sub-process adds towards the final product. IDEF0 is a Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) process-modeling tool that allows for this functional decomposition through structured analysis. In addition, it illustrates the relationship of the process and the value added to the product or service. The value added portion is further defined in IDEF1X which is an entity relationship diagramming tool. The entity relationship model is the blueprint of the product as it moves along the 'assembly line' and therefore relates all of the parts to each other and the final product. It also relates the parts to the tools that produce the product and all of the paper work that is used in their acquisition. The use of IDEF therefore facilitates the use of Activity Based Costing (ABC). ABC is an essential method in a high variety, product-customizing environment, to facilitate rapid response to externally caused change. This paper describes the work being done in the Mission Operations Division to re-engineer the development and operation life cycle of Mission Operations Centers using these tools.

Mandl, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS1980

On evaluating the performability of degradable computing systems

If the performance of a computing system is 'degradable', performance and reliability issues must be dealt with simultaneously in the process of evaluating system effectiveness. For this purpose, a unified measure, called 'performability', is introduced and the foundations of performability modeling and evaluation are established. A critical step in the modeling process is the introduction of a 'capability function' which relates low-level system behavior to user-oriented performance levels. A hierarchical modeling scheme is used to formulate the capability function and capability is used, in turn, to evaluate performability. These techniques are then illustrated for a specific application: the performability evaluation of an aircraft computer in the environment of an air transport mission.

Meyer, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Measurement and modeling of moist processes

The keynote talk summarized five years of work simulating observed mesoscale convective systems with the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model. Excellent results are obtained when simulating squall line or other convective systems that are strongly forced by fronts or other lifting mechanisms. Less highly forced systems are difficult to model. The next topic in this colloquium was measurement of water vapor and other constituents of the hydrologic cycle. Impressive accuracy was shown measuring water vapor with both the airborne DIAL (Differential Absorption Lidar) system and the the ground-based Raman Lidar. NMC's plans for initializing land water hydrology in mesoscale models was presented before water vapor measurement concepts for GCIP were discussed. The subject of using satellite data to provide mesoscale moisture and wind analyses was next. Recent activities in modeling of moist processes in mesoscale systems was reported on. These modeling activities at the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) used a hydrostatic, variable-resolution grid model. Next the spatial resolution effects of moisture budgets was discussed; in particular, the effects of temporal resolution on heat and moisture budgets for cumulus parameterization. The conclusion of this colloquium was on modeling scale interaction processes.

Cotton, William↗

NASA NTRS1976

Modeling laser velocimeter signals as triply stochastic Poisson processes

Previous models of laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) systems have not adequately described dual-scatter signals in a manner useful for analysis and simulation of low-level photon-limited signals. At low photon rates, an LDV signal at the output of a photomultiplier tube is a compound nonhomogeneous filtered Poisson process, whose intensity function is another (slower) Poisson process with the nonstationary rate and frequency parameters controlled by a random flow (slowest) process. In the present paper, generalized Poisson shot noise models are developed for low-level LDV signals. Theoretical results useful in detection error analysis and simulation are presented, along with measurements of burst amplitude statistics. Computer generated simulations illustrate the difference between Gaussian and Poisson models of low-level signals.

Mayo, W. T., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A model study of the response of mesospheric ozone to short-term solar ultraviolet flux variations

An investigation is conducted in order to determine the relative importance of several modeled processes in controlling the magnitude and phase of the mesospheric ozone response. A detailed one-dimensional modeling study of the mesospheric ozone response to solar UV flux variations is conducted to remove some of the deficiencies in previous studies. This study is also used to examine specifically the importance of solar zenith angle, self-consistent calculation of water vapor abundance, and temperature feedback with a nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium radiation model. The photochemical model is described, and the assumptions made for the purpose of comparing model results with the observed ozone response obtained from a statistical analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer data (Keating et al., 1987) are discussed. The numerical results for the theoretical ozone response are presented. The results of selected time-dependent calculations are considered to illustrate the degree to which a relatively simple model of the mesosphere is able to capture the major characteristics of the observed response.

Summers, M. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Continued Exploration of the Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Design Space

A previous electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) design space exploration study was continued to investigate the impact of mission constraints, further explore the design space of different sized aircraft, and improve the modeling process. Three aircraft were investigated, 18- and 48-passenger turboprops, and a 78-passenger turbofan. Baseline aircraft models were inherited from the earlier study and were hybridized by applying EAP technologies. A parametric study varying motor power and battery specific energy was conducted. For the 78-passenger turbofan, design range was also introduced as a parametric parameter. Key metrics for the study included equivalent lifecycle CO2 emissions and direct operating cost plus interest. Both turboprop aircraft demonstrated significant potential savings in block fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, but at increased operating costs compared to their baseline models. As the 78-passenger turbofan had shown no improvements in any metrics under reasonable technology assumptions, design range was shortened in an attempt to obtain performance benefits. When designed for a shorter range, the 78-passenger EAP vehicle showed potential improvements in block fuel when compared to a baseline with a similarly shortened design range, but not in any other metrics. Operating cost reductions were not achieved for any aircraft, but several designs came close to breaking even with their baselines. Smaller, shorter range aircraft and turboprops demonstrated larger performance benefits and smaller operating cost penalties, but a simple trade of electric energy storage in batteries for fuel is generally insufficient to produce a viable aircraft concept.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

NASA NTRS1989

Mechanical properties of lunar regolith and lunar soil simulant

Through the Surveyor 3 and 7, and Apollo 11-17 missions a knowledge of the mechanical properties of Lunar regolith were gained. These properties, including material cohesion, friction, in-situ density, grain-size distribution and shape, and porosity, were determined by indirect means of trenching, penetration, and vane shear testing. Several of these properties were shown to be significantly different from those of terrestrial soils, such as an interlocking cohesion and tensile strength formed in the absence of moisture and particle cementation. To characterize the strength and deformation properties of Lunar regolith experiments have been conducted on a lunar soil simulant at various initial densities, fabric arrangements, and composition. These experiments included conventional triaxial compression and extension, direct tension, and combined tension-shear. Experiments have been conducted at low levels of effective confining stress. External conditions such as membrane induced confining stresses, end platten friction and material self weight have been shown to have a dramatic effect on the strength properties at low levels of confining stress. The solution has been to treat these external conditions and the specimen as a full-fledged boundary value problem rather than the idealized elemental cube of mechanics. Centrifuge modeling allows for the study of Lunar soil-structure interaction problems. In recent years centrifuge modeling has become an important tool for modeling processes that are dominated by gravity and for verifying analysis procedures and studying deformation and failure modes. Centrifuge modeling is well established for terrestrial enginering and applies equally as well to Lunar engineering. A brief review of the experiments is presented in graphic and outline form.

Steven W Perkins↗