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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian retrieval of optically relevant properties from hyperspectral water-leaving reflectances

Current methods to retrieve optically relevant properties from ocean color observations do not explicitly make use of prior knowledge about property distributions. Here we implement a simplified Bayesian approach that takes into account prior probability distributions on two sets of five optically relevant parameters, and conduct a retrieval of these parameters using hyperspectral simulated water-leaving reflectances. We focus specifically on the ability of the model to distinguish between two optically similar phytoplankton taxa, diatoms and Noctiluca scintillans. The inversion retrieval gives most-likely concentrations and uncertainty estimates, and we find that the model is able to probabilistically predict the occurrence of Noctiluca scintillans blooms using these metrics. We discuss how this method can be expanded to include a priori covariances between different parameters, and show the effect of varying measurement uncertainty and spectral resolution on Noctiluca scintillans bloom predictions.

Zachary K Erickson↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Stochastic Transport Model for the Cumulative Number of Fissions and Deposited Fission Energy

The stochastic theory of neutron transport is extended to describe the cumulative distribution of fission numbers and deposited fission energy in a multiplying assembly. Solutions for the probability distributions are obtained using analytical approximations and Monte Carlo simulation in lumped geometry and in symmetric homogeneous and heterogeneous spheres. The results show the development of a power-law tail in the steady state fission number and deposited energy distributions when the medium is critical, independent of the fission neutron multiplicity distribution and domain heterogeneity. In contrast, the asymptotic decay is faster than exponential in subcritical media due to rapid chain extinction and in supercritical media due to the increasing probability of chain divergence. Here, a formal asymptotic analysis of the problem in lumped geometry with an arbitrary fission neutron multiplicity confirms the existence of power-law tails at critical.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1974

The definition and specification of the near earth environmental criteria for spacecraft thermal design

The variation of the earth's thermal and albedo radiation received by a near-earth orbiting space vehicle or space payload as a result of temporal variation of the earth atmosphere is discussed. A statistical study of current satellite data for determining probability distributions is proposed. With these distributions the thermal designer can define confidence levels on predicted temperature ranges which are compatible with engineering models for use in design, failure probabilities, and spacecraft cost estimates. Use of the distributions in environmental criteria guidelines is also considered.

Gary, G. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

J-PLUS: Spectral evolution of white dwarfs by PDF analysis

We estimated the spectral evolution of white dwarfs with effective temperature using the Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) second data release (DR2), which provides 12 photometric optical passbands over 2176 deg 2 . We analyzed 5926 white dwarfs with r ≤ 19.5 mag in common between a white dwarf catalog defined from Gaia EDR3 and J-PLUS DR2. We performed a Bayesian analysis by comparing the observed J-PLUS photometry with theoretical models of hydrogen- and helium-dominated atmospheres. We estimated the probability distribution functions for effective temperature (T eff ), surface gravity, parallax, and composition; and the probability of having a H-dominated atmosphere (p H ) for each source. We applied a prior in parallax, using Gaia EDR3 measurements as a reference, and derived a self-consistent prior for the atmospheric composition as a function of T eff . We described the fraction of white dwarfs with a He-dominated atmosphere (f He ) with a linear function of the effective temperature at 5000 < T eff < 30 000 K. We find f He = 0.24 ± 0.01 at T eff = 10 000 K, a change rate along the cooling sequence of 0.14 ± 0.02 per 10 kK, and a minimum He-dominated fraction of 0.08 ± 0.02 at the high-temperature end. We tested the obtained p H by comparison with spectroscopic classifications, finding that it is reliable. We estimated the mass distribution for the 351 sources with distance d < 100 pc, mass M > 0.45 M ⊙ , and T eff > 6000 K. The result for H-dominated white dwarfs agrees with previous studies, with a dominant M = 0.59 M ⊙ peak and the presence of an excess at M ~ 0.8 M ⊙ . This high-mass excess is absent in the He-dominated distribution, which presents a single peak. The J-PLUS optical data provide a reliable statistical classification of white dwarfs into H- and He-dominated atmospheres. We find a 21 ± 3% increase in the fraction of He-dominated white dwarfs from T eff = 20 000 K to T eff = 5000 K.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mass distributions of dijet resonances from excited quarks at proton-proton colliders

We study the expected experimental mass distributions of dijet resonances from excited quarks in proton-proton collisions at energies $\sqrt{s}$ = 13, 14, 27, 100, 300, and 500 TeV. We explore in detail the expected shapes at both the generator and experimental levels, and identify within the distributions the effects of the excited quark natural width, parton momentum distributions of the proton, radiation, and experimental resolution. We present both differential and cumulative probability distributions as a function of dijet mass, and the signal acceptance of a window in dijet mass centered on each resonance. We find that for a range of resonance masses, between 10% and 50% of $\sqrt{s}$, the dijet mass distributions and window acceptance are practically universal, approximately invariant under changes in resonance mass and $\sqrt{s}$. This universality is violated when the resonance mass reaches 60% of $\sqrt{s}$, because the steepness of the parton momentum distributions of the proton produces a significant tail at low dijet mass. This work supports our Snowmass 2021 study on the sensitivity to dijet resonances at proton-proton colliders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physical Invariants of Intelligence

A program of research is dedicated to development of a mathematical formalism that could provide, among other things, means by which living systems could be distinguished from non-living ones. A major issue that arises in this research is the following question: What invariants of mathematical models of the physics of systems are (1) characteristic of the behaviors of intelligent living systems and (2) do not depend on specific features of material compositions heretofore considered to be characteristic of life? This research at earlier stages has been reported, albeit from different perspectives, in numerous previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. To recapitulate: One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Mathematical models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable physical behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. At the time of reporting the information for this article, the focus of this research was upon the following aspects of the formalism: Intelligence is considered to be a means by which a living system preserves itself and improves its ability to survive and is further considered to manifest itself in feedback from the mental dynamics to the motor dynamics. Because of the feedback from the mental dynamics, the motor dynamics attains quantum-like properties: The trajectory of the physical aspect of the system in the space of dynamical variables splits into a family of different trajectories, and each of those trajectories can be chosen with a probability prescribed by the mental dynamics. From a slightly different perspective, the mechanism of decision-making is feedback from the mental dynamics to the motor dynamics, and this mechanism provides a quantum-like collapse of a random motion into an appropriate deterministic state, such that entropy undergoes a pronounced decrease. The existence of this mechanism is considered to be an invariant of intelligent behavior of living systems, regardless of the origins and material compositions of the systems.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS1987

Pitch angle distributions of low-energy ions in the near-earth magnetosphere

Energetic ion composition data acquired by satellite have been used to study the characteristics of ion pitch angle distributions in the near-earth magnetosphere. Both H(+) and O(+) ions below 1 keV were most frequently observed to have bidirectional field-aligned or conical pitch angle distributions inside L of about 6, with the exception of highly trapped H(+) very near the magnetic equator. The occurrence probability distributions of counterstreaming ions (CSI) and bidirectional conics in magnetic local time and L shell space suggest that the observed CSI were formed near the postmidnight sector and subsequently drifted eastward, and that ions close to the field-aligned direction were probably lost due to charge exchange with atmospheric hydrogen in the course of their eastward drift. In the prenoon sector, conical distributions dominated. Bidirectional ions were vary rarely observed in the afternoon sector, presumably because their drift paths crossed the magnetopause into the dayside magnetosheath.

Sagawa, E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Weibull Distribution From Interval Inspection Data

Most likely failure sequence assumed. Memorandum discusses application of Weibull distribution to statistics of failures of turbopump blades. Is generalization of well known exponential random probability distribution and useful in describing component-failure modes including aging effects. Parameters found from experimental data by method of maximum likelihood.

Rheinfurth, Mario H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Gravitational microlensing of high-redshift supernovae by compact objects

An analysis of the effect of microlensing by a cosmologically dominant density of compact objects is performed, using high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia's) as probes. The compact objects are modeled as a three-dimensional distribution of point masses, and Monte Carlo simulations are done to calculate the resulting amplification probability distributions for several column densities and cosmologies. By combining these distributions with the intrinsic SN Ia luminosity function and comparing with the results for a perfectly smooth universe, estimates are made of the number of supernovae that would need to be observed to confirm or rule out this lensing scenario. It is found that about 1000 SN Ia's with redshifts of z = 1 would be needed to perform this test, which is beyond what current searches can hope to accomplish. Observations of many fewer high-redshift supernovae, used merely as standard candles, appears a promising way of distinguishing between different cosmological models.

Rauch, Kevin P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Iterative Focusing - Part 1

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights from the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Alternative Lagrangians and Uncountable Move Spaces - Part 2

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights &om the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Solar microclimatology

It has become apparent in recent years that solar energy can be used for electric power production by several methods. Because of the diffuse nature of the solar insolation, the area involved in any central power plant design can encompass several square miles. A detailed design of these large area collection systems will require precise knowledge of the local solar insolation. Detailed information will also be needed concerning the temporal nature of the insolation and the local spatial distribution. Therefore, insolation data was collected and analyzed for a network of sensors distributed over an area of several square kilometers in Arizona. The analyses of this data yielded probability distributions of cloud size, velocity, and direction of motion which were compared with data obtained from the National Weather Service. Microclimatological analyses were also performed for suitable modeling parameters pertinent to large scale electric power plant design. Instrumentation used to collect the data is described.

Mckenney, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Canopy architecture of a walnut orchard

A detailed dataset describing the canopy geometry of a walnut orchard was acquired to support testing and comparison of the predictions of canopy microwave and optical inversion models. Measured canopy properties included the quantity, size, and orientation of stems, leaves, and fruit. Eight trees receiving 100 percent of estimated potential evapotranspiration water use and eight trees receiving 33 percent of potential water use were measured. The vertical distributions of stem, leaf, and fruit properties are presented with respect to irrigation treatment. Zenith and probability distributions for stems and leaf normals are presented. These data show that, after two years of reduced irrigation, the trees receiving only 33 percent of their potential water requirement had reduced fruit yields, lower leaf area index, and altered allocation of biomass within the canopy.

Ustin, Susan L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Measurement of the light-field amplitude-correlation function through joint photon-count distributions.

When an amplitude-stabilized He-Ne laser beam is scattered by a rotating ground glass with small surface inhomogeneities, the probability density of the instantaneous scattered-wave amplitude is Gaussian. In this paper, we suggest the use of the joint photon-count probability distribution to measure the absolute value of the electric-field amplitude-correlation function for random Gaussian light fields, and report the results of an experiment in which the Gaussian field is produced by scattering a light beam through a rotating ground glass. This procedure offers an alternative to other conventional methods, such as self-beating spectroscopy and irradiance-correlation techniques. The correlation time of the scattered-field amplitude in the present experiment has been measured with an accuracy of approximately 0.8%.

Furcinitti, P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing scrambling and operator size distributions using random mixed states and local measurements

The dynamical spreading of quantum information through a many-body system, typically called scrambling, is a complex process that has proven to be essential to describe many properties of out-of-equilibrium quantum systems. Scrambling can, in principle, be fully characterized via the use of out-of-time-ordered correlation functions, which are notoriously hard to access experimentally. In this work, we put forward an alternative toolbox of measurement protocols to experimentally probe scrambling by accessing properties of the operator size probability distribution, which tracks the size of the support of observables in a many-body system over time. Our measurement protocols require the preparation of separable mixed states together with local operations and measurements, and combine the tools of randomized operations, a modern development of near-term quantum algorithms, with the use of mixed states, a standard tool in NMR experiments. We demonstrate how to efficiently probe the probability-generating function of the operator distribution and discuss the challenges associated with obtaining the moments of the operator distribution. We further show that manipulating the initial state of the protocol allows us to directly obtain the individual elements of the distribution for small system sizes. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Blocher, Philip Daniel (ORCID:0000000163027567)↗
DOE OSTI2026

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unified, Geometric Framework for Nonequilibrium Protocol Optimization

Controlling thermodynamic cycles to minimize the dissipated heat is a long-standing goal in thermodynamics, and more recently, a central challenge in stochastic thermodynamics for nanoscale systems. Here, we introduce a theoretical and computational framework for optimizing nonequilibrium control protocols that can transform a system between two distributions in a minimally dissipative fashion. These protocols optimally transport a system along paths through the space of probability distributions that minimize the dissipative cost of a transformation. Furthermore, we show that the thermodynamic metric—determined via a linear response approach—can be directly derived from the same objective function that is optimized in the optimal transport problem, thus providing a unified perspective on thermodynamic geometries. As a result, we investigate this unified geometric framework in two model systems and observe that our procedure for optimizing control protocols is robust beyond linear response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1988

Optimum structural sizing for gust induced response

The present paper describes an optimization capability for sizing airframe structures that are subjected to a combination of deterministic and random loads. Design constraints are implemented to prevent structural failure in fatigue and due to a single exceedance of the allowable stress. The random load is treated as a stationary, homogeneous process with a Gaussian probability distribution, and a frequency domain method is used for the computation of dynamic response parameters. An equal-probability-of-load-combination criterion is proposed in the formulation of strength constraints. This alleviates problems associated with the incomplete phase information available when using power spectral density methods. The optimization procedure is illustrated by examples using typical built-up structures.

Hajela, P.↗