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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida

Abstract The present work evaluates historical precipitation and its indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) against NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset over Florida. The models examined here are: (1) nested RCMs involved in the North American CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, (2) variable resolution Community Earth System Models (VR-CESM), (3) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models statistically downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) technique. To quantify observational uncertainty, three in situ-based (PRISM, Livneh, CPC) and three reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA2, NARR) datasets are also evaluated against the station data. The reanalyses and dynamically downscaled RCMs generally underestimate the magnitude of the monthly precipitation and the frequency of the extreme rainfall in summer. The models forced with CanESM2 miss the phase of the seasonality of extreme precipitation. All models and reanalyses severely underestimate both the mean and interannual variability of mean wet-day precipitation (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and overestimate consecutive wet days (CWD). Metric analysis suggests large uncertainty across NA-CORDEX models. Both the LOCA and VR-CESM models perform better than the majority of models. Overall, RegCM4 and WRF models perform poorer than the median model performance. The performance uncertainty across models is comparable to that in the reanalyses. Specifically, NARR performs poorer than the median model performance in simulating the mean indices and MERRA2 performs worse than the majority of models in capturing the interannual variability of the indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

Gupta, Hoshin V.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laser-system model for enhanced operational performance and flexibility on OMEGA EP

The development of laser performance models having real-time prediction capability for the OMEGA EP laser system has been essential in meeting requests from its user community for increasingly complex pulse shapes that span a wide range of energies. The laser operations model PSOPS provides rapid and accurate predictions of OMEGA EP laser-system performance in both forward and backward directions, a user-friendly interface and rapid optimization capability between shots. We describe the model’s features and show how PSOPS has allowed real-time optimization of the laser-system configuration in order to satisfy the demands of rapidly evolving experimental campaign needs. We also discuss several enhancements to laser-system performance accuracy and flexibility enabled by PSOPS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

Performance modeling and performance enhancement for periodic execution of large-grain, decision-free algorithms in data flow architectures are discussed. Applications include real-time implementation of control and signal processing algorithms where performance is required to be highly predictable. The mapping of algorithms onto the specified class of data flow architectures is realized by a marked graph model called algorithm to architecture mapping model (ATAMM). Performance measures and bounds are established. Algorithm transformation techniques are identified for performance enhancement and reduction of resource (computing element) requirements. A systematic design procedure is described for generating operating conditions for predictable performance both with and without resource constraints. An ATAMM simulator is used to test and validate the performance prediction by the design procedure. Experiments on a three resource testbed provide verification of the ATAMM model and the design procedure.

Som, Sukhamoy↗
NASA NTRS1998

Numerical Stability and Control Analysis Towards Falling-Leaf Prediction Capabilities of Splitflow for Two Generic High-Performance Aircraft Models

Aerodynamic analysis are performed using the Lockheed-Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems (LMTAS) Splitflow computational fluid dynamics code to investigate the computational prediction capabilities for vortex-dominated flow fields of two different tailless aircraft models at large angles of attack and sideslip. These computations are performed with the goal of providing useful stability and control data to designers of high performance aircraft. Appropriate metrics for accuracy, time, and ease of use are determined in consultations with both the LMTAS Advanced Design and Stability and Control groups. Results are obtained and compared to wind-tunnel data for all six components of forces and moments. Moment data is combined to form a "falling leaf" stability analysis. Finally, a handful of viscous simulations were also performed to further investigate nonlinearities and possible viscous effects in the differences between the accumulated inviscid computational and experimental data.

Charlton, Eric F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Object detection in natural backgrounds predicted by discrimination performance and models

Many models of visual performance predict image discriminability, the visibility of the difference between a pair of images. We compared the ability of three image discrimination models to predict the detectability of objects embedded in natural backgrounds. The three models were: a multiple channel Cortex transform model with within-channel masking; a single channel contrast sensitivity filter model; and a digital image difference metric. Each model used a Minkowski distance metric (generalized vector magnitude) to summate absolute differences between the background and object plus background images. For each model, this summation was implemented with three different exponents: 2, 4 and infinity. In addition, each combination of model and summation exponent was implemented with and without a simple contrast gain factor. The model outputs were compared to measures of object detectability obtained from 19 observers. Among the models without the contrast gain factor, the multiple channel model with a summation exponent of 4 performed best, predicting the pattern of observer d's with an RMS error of 2.3 dB. The contrast gain factor improved the predictions of all three models for all three exponents. With the factor, the best exponent was 4 for all three models, and their prediction errors were near 1 dB. These results demonstrate that image discrimination models can predict the relative detectability of objects in natural scenes.

NASA Center ARC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance Risk Model (PRisM) Proof-of-Concept: An Operational Decision Support Tool to Predict Crew Performance in Space from Available Performance Tests

The Crew Health and Performance-Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team at NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a range of tools to evaluate astronaut health during spaceflight and to optimize the medical set required for missions. Among these, the Performance Risk Model (PRisM) represents a novel advancement, extending CHP-PRA’s focus beyond medical systems into the domain of human performance. Such tool could be pivotal in optimizing astronaut capabilities during space travel, thereby enhancing overall mission success. PRisM leverages data from well-established performance assessments conducted during previous crewed space missions and Earth analogs to strategically predict outcomes for planned tasks, even when direct performance testing has not been conducted for those specific tasks. To evaluate performance, PRisM references the various metrics outlined in NASA-STD-3001 and employs a methodology to integrate different performance scales. This framework analyzes the contribution of various human system task categories (HSTCs) to task execution and compares these contributions to the HSTCs’ involvement in other known tests. The model further employs a Monte Carlo simulation to sample performance scores from their distribution in operationally relevant tests such as those in Mulavara et al. (2018) and, by leveraging similarities in HSTC involvement, transfers this knowledge to actual mission tasks, such as those outlined in the "Human Exploration of Mars: Preliminary List of Crew Tasks”. The current PRisM proof-of-concept includes analyses of the impact of exercise and specific medications on astronauts’ performance, with provisions to incorporate additional countermeasures as data becomes available. Furthermore, the tool is customizable to include any system necessary to fully encompass the domain of human systems and can be adapted to evaluate performance for any spaceflight activities as requested by operational stakeholders. PRisM has the potential to assist the Human Research Program in exploring the capabilities trade space for optimized crew performance.

performance modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Ensemble Investigation of the Causes for Regional Air-Quality Model Critical Load Exceedances Prediction Variability in European and North American Domains Using Diagnostics From Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative

We summarize tentative findings from multi air quality model ensembles for the years 2009 and 2010 in Europe (EU), and 2010 and 2016 in North America (NA), under AQMEII-4. The model predictions of sulphur and nitrogen deposition were used to estimate exceedances of critical loads for acidification and eutrophication, to show the extent to which the ensemble members agree in the magnitude and the trend of ecologically meaningful impacts. Model exceedance variability was analyzed using AQMEII-4 diagnostics. Evaluation against concentration and wet deposition observations, coupled with these diagnostics, identified specific process representations as the causes for variability between model predictions and for reduced model performance. All models predicted reductions in ecosystem acidification impacts in North America between the years 2010 and 2016, in accord with SO2 emissions reduction legislation which started in 2010 (SO2 SIP) However, all models in EU and NA domains had net negative biases for wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen relative to observations. The wet S deposition average mean bias for the NA ensemble was -0.17 eq ha-1 d-1, and for the EU ensemble -1.15 eq ha-1 d-1. The NA daily wet deposition average mean bias for NH4+ was -0.37 eq ha-1d-1; EU -1.19 eq ha-1 d-1. The daily NA wet NO3- deposition average mean bias was -0.24 eq ha-1d-1; EU -0.69 eq ha-1 d-1. The members of the ensemble diverged (factor of 10) in their North American predictions for Ndep and consequently their eutrophication exceedances. The models with the highest eutrophication predictions also predicted the highest levels of gas-phase ammonia dry deposition (standard deviation of ammonia dry deposition flux across ensemble members was larger than the ensemble average). These models also had negative biases of predicted ammonia concentrations; average mean biases of -0.63 (satellite NH3) and -0.85 ppbv (surface NH3) compared to ensemble averages of -0.30 and -0.34 ppbv. Diagnostics showed that these differences resulted from the manner in which bidirectional ammonia fluxes were parameterized within these models. The second largest source of NA eutrophication prediction variability were models with positive biases in particulate ammonium and nitrate concentrations, and higher particle nitrogen deposition levels ( particle ammonium concentration bias +0.35 ug m-3; ensemble bias +0.15 ug m-3). We believe two factors may have led to these latter overestimates: higher levels of fine mode particle nitrate formation compared to other models (due to the use of an inorganic heterogeneous chemistry algorithm which did not take base cation chemistry into account), and updates to particle dry deposition velocities carried out in the absence of concurrent updates to wet scavenging algorithms. The relative importance of dry gas, dry particulate, and wet deposition towards total sulphur and nitrogen deposition totals differed between EU and North American domains, though all models had negative biases in wet deposition as noted above. Parallel and subsequent work suggests that multiphase hydrometeor scavenging may improve model wet deposition performance. An increased research focus is recommended for four model processes: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging, ammonia bidirectional fluxes, base cation chemistry and emissions, and particle dry deposition.

regional air-quality model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting Write Performance of Supercomputer I/O Systems with Regression Models

This work seeks to advance the state of the art in HPC I/O performance analysis and interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate effective techniques to: (1) model output performance in the presence of I/O interference from production loads; (2) build features from write patterns and key parameters of the system architecture and configurations; (3) employ suitable machine learning algorithms to improve model accuracy. We train models with five popular regression algorithms and conduct experiments on two distinct production HPC platforms. We find that the lasso and random forest models predict output performance with high accuracy on both of the target systems. We also explore use of the models to guide adaptation in I/O middleware systems, and show potential for improvements of at least 15% from model-guided adaptation on 70% of samples, and improvements up to 10× on some samples for both of the target systems.

Xie, Bing↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-Performance Computing for Earth System Modeling

High-performance computing (HPC) plays an important role during the development of Earth system models. This chapter reviews HPC efforts related to Earth system models, including community Earth system models and energy exascale Earth system models. Specifically, this chapter evaluates computational and software design issues, analyzes several current HPC-related model developments, and provides an outlook for some promising areas within Earth system modeling in the era of exascale computing.

Wang, Dali↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning assisted hybrid models can improve streamflow simulation in diverse catchments across the conterminous US

Incomplete representations of physical processes often lead to structural errors in process-based (PB) hydrologic models. Machine learning (ML) algorithms can reduce streamflow modeling errors but do not enforce physical consistency. As a result, ML algorithms may be unreliable if used to provide future hydroclimate projections where climates and land use patterns are outside the range of training data. Here we test hybrid models built by integrating PB model outputs with a ML algorithm known as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on their ability to simulate streamflow in 531 catchments representing diverse conditions across the Conterminous United States. Model performance of hybrid models as measured by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) improved relative to standalone PB and LSTM models. More importantly, hybrid models provide highest improvement in catchments where PB models fail completely (i.e., NSE < 0). However, all models performed poorly in catchments with extended low flow periods, suggesting need for additional research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Glocer, A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Reference Cell Performance Using Measured and Modeled Spectral Data

The performance of several silicon-based reference cells is examined under clear skies on a horizontal and two-axis tracking surface during the winter of 2022. The ratio of the calculated reference cell output to the measured reference cell output is examined. For each reference cell, when using the measured spectral data, the ratio of the estimated to measured output varies by less than +/-0.6% at the P95 level. The analysis was also done using modeled spectral values obtained from the Bird spectrl2 model. The ratio between the estimated reference cell output using the modeled spectral values to the measured reference cell output varies by +/-1.1% at the P95 level.

angle of incidence↗
NASA NTRS1997

Thermal Design and Analysis for the Cryogenic MIDAS Experiment

The Materials In Devices As Superconductors (MIDAS) spaceflight experiment is a NASA payload which launched in September 1996 on the Shuttle, and was transferred to the Mir Space Station for several months of operation. MIDAS was developed and built at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The primary objective of the experiment was to determine the effects of microgravity and spaceflight on the electrical properties of high-temperature superconductive (HTS) materials. The thermal challenge on MIDAS was to maintain the superconductive specimens at or below 80 K for the entire operation of the experiment, including all ground testing and 90 days of spaceflight operation. Cooling was provided by a small tactical cryocooler. The superconductive specimens and the coldfinger of the cryocooler were mounted in a vacuum chamber, with vacuum levels maintained by an ion pump. The entire experiment was mounted for operation in a stowage locker inside Mir, with the only heat dissipation capability provided by a cooling fan exhausting to the habitable compartment. The thermal environment on Mir can potentially vary over the range 5 to 40 C; this was the range used in testing, and this wide range adds to the difficulty in managing the power dissipated from the experiment's active components. Many issues in the thermal design are discussed, including: thermal isolation methods for the cryogenic samples; design for cooling to cryogenic temperatures; cryogenic epoxy bonds; management of ambient temperature components self-heating; and fan cooling of the enclosed locker. Results of the design are also considered, including the thermal gradients across the HTS samples and cryogenic thermal strap, electronics and thermal sensor cryogenic performance, and differences between ground and flight performance. Modeling was performed in both SINDA-85 and MSC/PATRAN (with direct geometry import from the CAD design tool Pro/Engineer). Advantages of both types of models are discussed. Correlation of several models to ground testing and flight data (where available) is presented. Both SINDA and PATRAN models predicted the actual thermal performance of the experiment well, even without post-flight correlation adjustments of the models.

Amundsen, Ruth McElroy↗