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NASA NTRS2002

Impact of Quikscat Data on Numerical Weather Prediction

One of the important applications of satellite surface wind observations is to increase the accuracy of weather analyses and forecasts. Satellite surface wind data can improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts by contributing to improved analyses of the surface wind field and air sea fluxes. Through the data assimilation process,these data can also improve atmospheric mass and motion fields in the free atmosphere above the surface. The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in July 1999 and represented a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) was the first data assimilation center to assimilate QuikScat Seawinds data and evaluate their impact on numerical weather prediction. Following the launch of QuikScat, a detailed evaluation of the initial surface wind data sets was performed as part of a collaborative project between the Environmental Modeling Center of NCEP, NESDIS and the DAO. More recently, the impact of Quikscat data was evaluated in detailed experiments using the NCEP operational data assimilation system. As a result of the beneficial impact obtained, NCEP began operational utilization of Quikscat data. Results from these experiments as well as recent DAO assimilation experiments showing the impact of Quikscat data on stratospheric analyses and forecasts will be presented at the meeting.

Atlas, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2009

Simulating the Effects of Irrigation over the U.S. in a Land Surface Model Based on Satellite Derived Agricultural Data

A novel method is introduced for integrating satellite derived irrigation data and high-resolution crop type information into a land surface model (LSM). The objective is to improve the simulation of land surface states and fluxes through better representation of agricultural land use. Ultimately, this scheme could enable numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to capture land-atmosphere feedbacks in managed lands more accurately and thus improve forecast skill. Here we show that application of the new irrigation scheme over the continental US significantly influences the surface water and energy balances by modulating the partitioning of water between the surface and the atmosphere. In our experiment, irrigation caused a 12% increase in evapotranspiration (QLE) and an equivalent reduction in the sensible heat flux (QH) averaged over all irrigated areas in the continental US during the 2003 growing season. Local effects were more extreme: irrigation shifted more than 100 W/m from QH to QLE in many locations in California, eastern Idaho, southern Washington, and southern Colorado during peak crop growth. In these cases, the changes in ground heat flux (QG), net radiation (RNET), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and soil moisture (SM) were more than 3 W/m(sup 2), 20 W/m(sup 2), 5 mm/day, 0.3 mm/day, and 100 mm, respectively. These results are highly relevant to continental- to global-scale water and energy cycle studies that, to date, have struggled to quantify the effects of agricultural management practices such as irrigation. Based on the results presented here, we expect that better representation of managed lands will lead to improved weather and climate forecasting skill when the new irrigation scheme is incorporated into NWP models such as NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS).

Ozdogan, Mutlu↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spanning the Gap From Bulk to Bin: A Novel Spectral Microphysics Method

Microphysics methods for climate models and numerical weather prediction typically track one, two, or three moments of a droplet size distribution for various categories of liquid, ice, and aerosol. Such methods rely on conversion parameters between these categories, which introduces uncertainty into predictions. While higher-fidelity options such as bin and Lagrangian schemes exist, they require too many degrees of freedom for climate modeling applications and introduce numerical challenges. Here we introduce a flexible spectral microphysics method based on collocation of basis functions. This method generalizes to a linear bulk scheme when using few basis functions and to a smoothed bin scheme with more degrees of freedom. Tested in an idealized box setting, the method improves spectral accuracy for droplet collision-coalescence and may eliminate the need for precipitation autoconversion rates required by bulk methods; furthermore, it generalizes well to multimodal distributions with less complexity than a bin method. The potential to extend this collocation representation to multiple hydrometeor classes suggests a path forward to unify liquid, ice, and aerosol microphysics in a single, flexible, computational framework for climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

NWP Impact of Cloud Top and Boundary Layer Winds from a Satellite Borne Lidar: an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Observing systems simulation experiments (OSSE's) provide a powerful tool to assess the impact of proposed satellite borne observing systems on meteorological applications models. We describe the results of an OSSE conducted to assess the impact of data from a low power lidar wind sensor on the forecast accuracy of a global spectral numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory Global Data Assimilation System. The instrument would be operating at near-infrared wavelengths thereby increasing the backscatter signal relative to comparable infrared lidar.

Isaacs, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Application of Raytracing Through the High Resolution Numerical Weather Model HIRLAM for the Analysis of European VLBI

An important limitation for the precision in the results obtained by space geodetic techniques like VLBI and GPS are tropospheric delays caused by the neutral atmosphere, see e.g. [1]. In recent years numerical weather models (NWM) have been applied to improve mapping functions which are used for tropospheric delay modeling in VLBI and GPS data analyses. In this manuscript we use raytracing to calculate slant delays and apply these to the analysis of Europe VLBI data. The raytracing is performed through the limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HIRLAM. The advantages of this model are high spatial (0.2 deg. x 0.2 deg.) and high temporal resolution (in prediction mode three hours).

Garcia-Espada, Susana↗

DOE OSTI2022

“Gray Zone” Simulations Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal gridcell spacing (Δ x ) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100–1000 m). At these gridcell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large-eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation. Significance Statement The spatial resolution of weather models continues to increase at a rapid rate in accordance with the enhancement of computing power. As a result, smaller-scale atmospheric features become more explicitly resolved. However, most numerical models still ignore the impact of horizontal weather variations on boundary layer flows, which becomes more important at these smaller spatial scales. To address this issue, we have implemented a new modeling approach, using fundamental principles, which accounts for horizontal variability. Our results show that including three-dimensional effects of turbulence is necessary to achieve realistic boundary layer characteristics. This novel technique may be useful for many applications including complex terrain flows, pollutant dispersion, and surface–atmosphere interaction studies.

Juliano, Timothy W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Physics-Based DNI Model for Advancing Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting: Preprint

Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is one of the most used quantities to quantify the magnitude of solar energy resource. The concept of DNI is often interpreted differently for ground measurements and solar forecasting by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias during evaluation of DNI forecasts especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To eliminate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to provide a physics-based solution of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The FARMS-DNI is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to forecast day-ahead DNI in the north America. By comparing with conventional predictions from WRF-Solar and satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB), we found significant improvements in our prediction of DNI.

DNI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

Abstract. During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015–March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80 m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3 %–4 % due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80 m wind speed MAE, up to 7 %–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80 m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2017

JIGSAW-GEO (1.0): Locally Orthogonal Staggered Unstructured Grid Generation for General Circulation Modelling on the Sphere

An algorithm for the generation of non-uniform, locally orthogonal staggered unstructured spheroidal grids is described. This technique is designed to generate very high-quality staggered VoronoiDelaunay meshes appropriate for general circulation modelling on the sphere, including applications to atmospheric simulation, ocean-modelling and numerical weather prediction. Using a recently developed Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique, a method for the construction of high-quality unstructured spheroidal Delaunay triangulations is introduced. A locally orthogonal polygonal grid, derived from the associated Voronoi diagram, is computed as the staggered dual. It is shown that use of the Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique allows for the generation of very high-quality unstructured triangulations, satisfying a priori bounds on element size and shape. Grid quality is further improved through the application of hill-climbing-type optimisation techniques. Overall, the algorithm is shown to produce grids with very high element quality and smooth grading characteristics, while imposing relatively low computational expense. A selection of uniform and non-uniform spheroidal grids appropriate for high-resolution, multi-scale general circulation modelling are presented. These grids are shown to satisfy the geometric constraints associated with contemporary unstructured C-grid-type finite-volume models, including the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-O). The use of user-defined mesh-spacing functions to generate smoothly graded, non-uniform grids for multi-resolution-type studies is discussed in detail.

geophysical fluid dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2008

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Chronis, Themis↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2016

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗

NASA NTRS1989

A PBL-radiation model for application to regional numerical weather prediction

Often in the short-range limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) of extratropical weather systems the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are considered secondarily important. However, it may not be the case for the regional NWP of mesoscale convective systems over the arid and semi-arid highlands of the southwestern and south-central United States in late spring and summer. Over these dry regions, the PBL can grow quite high up into the lower middle troposphere (600 mb) due to very effective solar heating and hence a vigorous air-land thermal interaction can occur. The interaction representing a major heat source for regional dynamical systems can not be ignored. A one-dimensional PBL-radiation model was developed. The model PBL consists of a constant-flux surface layer superposed with a well-mixed (Ekman) layer. The vertical eddy mixing coefficients for heat and momentum in the surface layer are determined according to the surface similarity theory, while their vertical profiles in the Ekman layer are specified with a cubic polynomial. Prognostic equations are used for predicting the height of the nonneutral PBL. The atmospheric radiation is parameterized to define the surface heat source/sink for the growth and decay of the PBL. A series of real-data numerical experiments has been carried out to obtain a physical understanding how the model performs under various atmospheric and surface conditions. This one-dimensional model will eventually be incorporated into a mesoscale prediction system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the NWP of mesoscale convective storms over land.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NM'S Environmental Modeling System

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The NM'S as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional Prediction System (AIRPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NM'S MLB and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions. Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by the NM'S Science Operations Officer (S00) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs nearly all pre- and postprocessing and can be run automatically to obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model, and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The EMS has also incorporated the WRF Standard Initialization (SI) graphical user interface (GUT), which allows the user to set up the domain, dynamical core, resolution, etc., with ease. In addition to the SI GUT, the EMS contains a number of configuration files with extensive documentation to help the user select the appropriate input parameters for model physics schemes, integration timesteps, etc. Therefore, because of its streamlined capability, it is quite advantageous to configure ADAS to provide initial condition data to the EMS software. One of the biggest potential benefits of configuring ADAS for ingest into the EMS is that the analyses could be used to initialize either the ARW or NMM. Currently, the ARPS/ADAS software has a conversion routine only for the ARW dynamical core. However, since the NIvIM runs about 2.5 times faster than the ARW, it is quite advantageous to be able to run an ADAS/NMM configuration operationally due to the increased efficiency.

Case, Jonathan↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comprehensive Forward Model for Spaceborne Radar Instruments

We present the development and validation of a comprehensive forward model designed to enhance remote sensing capabilities of spaceborne radar instruments. To overcome limitations in existing models, we integrated a Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into our Radiative Transfer Model (RTM), focusing on microwave frequencies. By simulating the optical properties of non-spherical frozen hydrometeors, the DDA technique effectively reduced discrepancies between simulated and observed values, surpassing traditional Mie tables. The evaluation of DDA lookup tables involved comparisons with a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts and satellite microwave data, providing evidence of their superiority. Additionally, we address the challenges of assimilating active radar measurements, which offer vertically resolved insights into clouds and precipitation. We explored the assimilation of spaceborne radar measurements in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models by integrating a forward radar model, along with its adjoint and tangent linear, into the data assimilation system. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrated promising agreement between simulations and observations, particularly when the input hydrometeor profiles aligned with the measured reflectivity profiles, showcasing the potential of the developed forward radar model. Moreover, we discuss other challenges in radar measurement assimilation within NWP models, including potential observation errors and biases.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRS2014

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application‐driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision‐making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real‐time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm‐season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L‐band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35‐km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L‐band instrument in conjunction with a 3‐km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar‐radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model (LSM) simulations and includes an Ensemble Kalman Filter for conducting land surface DA. SPoRT has added a module to read, quality‐control and bias‐correct swaths of Level II SMOS soil moisture retrievals prior to assimilation within LIS. The impact of SMOS DA is being tested using the Noah LSM. Experiments are being conducted to examine the impacts of SMOS soil moisture DA on the resulting LISNoah fields and subsequent NWP simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with LIS‐Noah output. LIS‐Noah soil moisture will be validated against in situ observations from Texas A&M's North American Soil Moisture Database to reveal the impact and possible improvement in soil moisture trends through DA. WRF model NWP case studies will test the impacts of DA on the simulated near‐surface and boundary‐layer environments, and precipitation during both quiescent and disturbed weather scenarios. Emphasis will be placed on cases with large analysis increments, especially due to contributions from regional irrigation patterns that are not represented by precipitation input in the baseline LIS‐Noah run. This poster presentation will describe the soil moisture DA methodology and highlight LIS‐Noah and WRF simulation results with and without assimilation.

Case, Jonathan L.↗