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Challenges in simulating ground interacting nuclear explosions

This paper summarizes recent above-ground nuclear explosion simulations as part of a broader effort to better characterize conditions within a fireball that may influence the chemical evolution of bomb materials and other materials entrained from the local explosion environment. A critical component of this work is validation against historic footage of atmospheric testing, requiring that we understand how the frequency-dependent sensitivity of the utilized film footage influences data captured in such images. We focus first on the early physics of a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere before discussing some of the technical challenges we seek to capture in late-time models that include more complex emplacement conditions and subsurface features. We discuss required physics packages (compressible hydrodynamics, radiation transport, as well as necessary ancillary tables such as equations of state (EOS) and opacities). Additionally, we note reasonable “shortcuts” one may make and their limitations, e.g., using ideal gas EOS, replacing spectrally resolved radiation with spectrally averaged radiation, and exchanging deterministic transport with diffusion. We then discuss an approach to achieving an equilibrated initial stress state for problems where buoyancy and subsurface lithostatic stress are important. Our methodology is presented in the context of LLNL’s ALE3D multiphysics code but may readily be implemented in other codes. In this paper, we start with a description of the challenges of NUDET simulations, followed by a presentation of the simulated intensity (flux) as it would appear on an analysis of the Dixie test. We then progressively introduce additional complexity in subsequent sections (near-surface burst and gravity initialization) before concluding.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Expanding Benchmarks for Nuclear Data Validation [Slides]

The presentation discusses benchmarking in comparison to experimental truth, the integral experiments that were performed, and that benchmarks are evaluated experiments. It also discusses validation testing, and that the ultimate goal of the validation end product is to improve evaluated nuclear data for applications It does state that validation highlights errors in the Nuclear Data Pipeline that affect applications, for example: Missing Cd Capture Gammas in ENDF/B-VII.1. It acknowledges that additional types of experiments are needed to test data used in applications, and that validation experiments do not have to be complicated and expensive. The presentation also discusses different types of measurements including activation foil and fission chamber measurements, reactor kinetics measurements, and subcritical measurements. The presentation concludes with an experiment summary and states that all applications need validation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Thermonuclear 28 P(p, γ ) 29 S reaction rate and astrophysical implication in ONe nova explosion

An accurate 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate is crucial to defining the nucleosynthesis products of explosive hydrogen burning in ONe novae. Using the recently released nuclear mass of 29 S, together with a shell model and a direct capture calculation, we reanalyzed the 28 P(p, γ) 29 S thermonuclear reaction rate and its astrophysical implication. We focus on improving the astrophysical rate for 28 P(p, γ) 29 S based on the newest nuclear mass data. Our goal is to explore the impact of the new rate and associated uncertainties on the nova nucleosynthesis. We evaluated this reaction rate via the sum of the isolated resonance contribution instead of the previously used Hauser-Feshbach statistical model. The corresponding rate uncertainty at different energies was derived using a Monte Carlo method. Nova nucleosynthesis is computed with the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA. The contribution from the capture on the first excited state at 105.64 keV in 28 P is taken into account for the first time. We find that the capture rate on the first excited state in 28 P is up to more than 12 times larger than the ground-state capture rate in the temperature region of 2.5 × 10 7 K to 4 × 10 8 K, resulting in the total 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate being enhanced by a factor of up to 1.4 at ~1 × 10 9 K. In addition, the rate uncertainty has been quantified for the first time. It is found that the new rate is smaller than the previous statistical model rates, but it still agrees with them within uncertainties for nova temperatures. The statistical model appears to be roughly valid for the rate estimation of this reaction in the nova nucleosynthesis scenario. Using the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA, we performed the nucleosynthesis calculations in a nova explosion to investigate the impact of the new rates of 28 P(p, γ) 29 S. Our calculations show that the nova abundance pattern is only marginally affected if we use our new rates with respect to the same simulations but statistical model rates. Finally, the isotopes whose abundance is most influenced by the present 28 P(p, γ) 29 S uncertainty are 28 Si, 33,34 S, 35,37 Cl, and 36 Ar, with relative abundance changes at the level of only 3% to 4%.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

The ocean’s nuclear energy reserve

Oceanic uranium represents a vast fuel resource that could ensure the long-term sustainability of nuclear power. Here, a new study seeks to harness that potential by developing a bioinspired adsorbent membrane capable of capturing uranium from seawater.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

U.S. Industry Opportunities for Advanced Nuclear Technology Development (Phase III)

This is the third phase of a work scope which has been focused on providing a framework for and preserving key experimental programs and experiences which are critical to the licensing basis of currently operating nuclear reactors or which could be used in the safety basis for the next generation of reactors. The first phase of this effort, documented in Reference 1, focused on compiling a list of key experimental programs through an international survey of reactor safety professionals working in licensing, design, and academia. The second phase in this effort, documented in Reference 2, focused on creating a searchable database framework in which to organize the results from the international survey and to perform detailed research on several key programs to provide the framework for how to categorize the references which could be located. The purpose of the third phase is to perform a high-level research effort on each experiment/experience and to determine if sufficient data, reports, and results have already been captured to consider the program archived for future generators of nuclear professionals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Criticality Experiments to Reduce Compensating Errors in Plutonium Nuclear Data

Compensating errors between nuclear data observables in a library can adversely impact application simulations. The primary goal of the EUCLID project (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) is to reduce compensating errors in nuclear data. A new criticality experiment, described in this work, was designed with the specific target nuclear data of 239 Pu fission, inelastic scattering, elastic scattering, capture, nu-bar, and prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS). This work will focus on the design and execution of the EUCLID experiment, performed on the Planet vertical lift critical assembly machine at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The criticality experiment includes two different configurations with very different geometries: one is cube-like to minimize neutron leakage while the other is slab-like to maximize leakage. Having these two widely varying configurations allows the scattering sensitivities of 239 Pu to the neutron multiplication factor to be greatly changed while minimally impacting the other cross section sensitivities. Both configurations utilize the Pu ZPPR (Zero Power Physics Reactor) plates as fuel. The experiments were designed using a D-Optimality criteria, which is an optimization method minimizing the log-determinant of the adjusted nuclear data covariance for the target reactions. These experiments include not only inference of k eff , as done in all critical benchmark experiments, but several other responses as well, such as neutron multiplication measurements and reaction rate ratios. After analysis of the measured data is complete, adjustment of nuclear data will be performed to assess whether the new experimental data successfully reduced compensating errors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The Energy Transition: Advanced Nuclear Needed but Address Climate Vulnerabilities Now

The term “Energy Transition” is an attempt to capture an elaborate set of activities related to the modernization and decarbonization of energy grids. Performed concurrently and often in an ad hoc manner across local, state, regional and national boundaries, it is bringing chaos to what should arguably be one of the most conservatively managed of all critical infrastructure sectors. What’s more, with climate change producing an increasing tempo of extreme events, confidence in the intended resilient and redundant structure of the electric grids is likely to ebb. Even without these climate induced stressors, the nation’s electric grid was built for an earlier century. In addition to a drive towards greater efficiency via digitization and a continuing price decline in distributed energy resources (DERs), one could argue that climate change concerns are the primary driver of the energy transition. Non-CO2 emitting generation sources like wind and solar have become an important part of the overall generation fleet, albeit ones that cannot be counted upon to provide dispatchable power. Current projections indicate deployment of even larger percentages of DERs in coming years. Until far better storage capabilities arrive, the variability of wind and solar, inconsistent performance of traditional thermal generation plants, and energy delivery failures associated with natural gas pipelines will reinforce mounting reliability concerns. This pertains to both electric transmission and distribution. The recent shuttering of nuclear power plants in Germany, Japan, the US and elsewhere are also putting more downward pressure on dispatchable generation. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has roiled energy markets worldwide and forced some countries to return to coal as a primary fuel. In view circumstances such as these, it is essential that significant changes be made to policies and planning criteria, and to the standards and code on which they are based. Given the accelerating pace of extreme weather events, this needs to occur as soon as possible.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for Steady-State Single-Phase Natural Circulation

The development of numerical software for engineering applications requires the validation of the code against experimental benchmark datasets. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating the single-phase natural circulation within nuclear reactor systems, high-precision steady-state experiments are performed to capture single-phase natural circulation phenomena on an existing scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. Forced convection tests are designed precisely capturing the facility’s critical thermal-hydraulic parameters required for one-dimensional modeling, and a comprehensive single-phase natural circulation dataset is obtained with well-documented experimental uncertainty and facility description. Analysis and discussion based on the finalized dataset confirm the dataset’s ability in capturing dominant phenomena and address important physical interpretation of parameters. The dataset reported in this project provides a valuable benchmark resource for the validation of system analysis codes under single-phase natural circulation inside nuclear reactors. Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is then performed against the obtained benchmark dataset to confirm the capability of its physics model in simulating the steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators to quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Numerical uncertainty originating from finite maximum pseudo-transient time is also quantified and restricted. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, directly quantifying the simulation output in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is further determined by the estimators of Sobol’ indices through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset, which shows consistent agreement for all important quantities. The validation activity reported in this project demonstrates that SAS4A/SASSYS-1 can predict the primary parameters with satisfactorily accuracy under steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Impact of in situ nuclear networks and atomic opacities on neutron star merger ejecta dynamics, nucleosynthesis, and kilonovae

Context. Binary neutron star merger (BNSM) ejecta are key sites of rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis and they produce kilonovae powered by the radioactive decay of freshly synthesized nuclei. Modeling their evolution requires multi-physics simulations involving hydrodynamics, nuclear reactions, and radiative processes. The impact of nuclear burning and atomic opacity is poorly understood and often treated with simplified prescriptions. Aims. We systematically investigate different treatments of nuclear heating, particle thermalization, and atomic opacities in radiation-hydrodynamics simulations of BNSM ejecta and kilonova light curves. Methods. Ejecta profiles from long-term numerical-relativity simulations of asymmetric neutron star binaries with a massive neutron star remnant were evolved to ∼30 days using a 2D ray-by-ray approach. We compared simplified heating-rate and thermalization prescriptions with in situ Nuclear reaction Network (NN) calculations that track nuclear energy deposition and include a composition-dependent thermalization scheme. We also contrasted various gray opacity models with a frequency-dependent treatment based on atomic calculations. Results. Coupling NN and hydrodynamics significantly affects nucleosynthesis and kilonova emission. Assuming homologous expansion alters abundance evolution and produces a narrower, less populated second r-process peak and a third peak shifted to higher mass numbers. The back-reaction of nuclear heating affects the temperature evolution enough to delay and redden the early (t∼ hours) kilonova peaks. A constant thermalization efficiency underestimates and reddens the early emission while overestimating the late-time luminosity compared to the composition-dependent treatment. Analytical opacity prescriptions yield a more extended, colder photosphere, resulting in dimmer, redder kilonovae at early times (t≲ hour), while the delayed recession of the photosphere prolongs the red emission at t ≳ 5 days. Conclusions. Coupling hydrodynamics to an in situ NN is crucial for reliable nucleosynthesis and kilonova predictions. Resolving the first several hundred milliseconds of the hydrodynamics is essential for robust nucleosynthesis calculations. Composition-dependent thermalization and frequency-dependent, atomic-physics-based opacities are needed to accurately capture the temperature evolution of the ejecta and the brightness and color evolution of the kilonova. Calibrated analytic nuclear-power fits with simplified thermalization and opacity prescriptions can still reproduce the density and temperature evolution of the ejecta.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

A game-theoretic approach to nuclear fuel cycle transition analysis under uncertainty

We present a novel methodology for optimizing nuclear fuel cycle transitions that incorporates a game-theoretic approach and captures interactions among multiple decision makers. The methodology is demonstrated using a two-person sequential game with uncertainty, where the two players represent a policy maker and an electric utility company, though the method generalizes to any number and type of individual decision making entities. Coupled with a sophisticated nuclear fuel cycle simulator, rich transition scenarios may be analyzed to identify robust transition strategies. These strategies explicitly treat uncertainties using a stochastic programming approach, devising optimal near-term hedging strategies that simultaneously consider all possible states of the world, maintaining flexibility to allow for intelligent recourse decisions once uncertainties are resolved. In the demonstration game, reactor technology and fuel cycle scheme adopted by the electric utility are shown to depend on both the policy maker’s decisions and the distributions over uncertain technological and economic outcomes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Impact of Nuclear Physics Uncertainties on Galactic Chemical Evolution Predictions

Modeling the evolution of the elements in the Milky Way is a multidisciplinary and challenging task. In addition to simulating the ~13 billion years evolution of our Galaxy, chemical evolution simulations must keep track of the elements synthesized and ejected from every astrophysical site of interest (e.g., supernova, compact binary merger). The elemental abundances of such ejecta, which are a fundamental input for chemical evolution codes, are usually taken from theoretical nucleosynthesis calculations performed by the nuclear astrophysics community. Therefore, almost all chemical evolution predictions rely on the nuclear physics behind those calculations. In this proceedings article, we highlight the impact of nuclear physics uncertainties on galactic chemical evolution predictions. We demonstrate that nuclear physics and galactic evolution uncertainties both have a significant impact on interpreting the origin of neutron-capture elements in our Solar System. Those results serve as a motivation to create and maintain collaborations between the fields of nuclear astrophysics and galaxy evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Proton capture on 34 S in the astrophysical energy regime of O-Ne novae

Nuclear reaction sensitivity studies have shown that the final isotopic abundance of O-Ne nova nucleosynthesis is dependent on the 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl reaction at astrophysical energies corresponding to peak nova burning temperatures of 0.1–0.4 GK. Isotopic ratios of the S, Cl, and Ar products are all used in various methods of cosmochemical analysis of presolar meteoritic grains. Due to the lack of direct experimental data, the 34 S+p reaction rate has been estimated using statistical modeling or information from indirect nucleon transfer experiments. In order to provide direct reaction information, here the resonance strengths of several low energy resonances, E c.m. = 272–495 keV, in the 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl reaction were measured for the first time in inverse kinematics using the DRAGON recoil separator located at TRIUMF, Canada’s Particle Accelerator Centre in Vancouver.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The electric potential of particles in interstellar space released from a nuclear waste payload

Mechanisms for charging a grain in the interplanetary medium include: (1) capture of solar wind electrons; (2) capture of solar wind protons; (3) ejection of electrons through the photoelectric effect due to the solar radiation; (4) escape of beta particles from beta emitters in the grain; and (5) escape of alpha particles from alpha emitters in the grain. The potentials on both nonradioactive and radioactive grains are considered with relation to particle size and time, and the distance from the Sun. Numerical results are presented where the waste mix is assumed to be PW-4b.

Williams, A. C.↗

Atmospheric Mining in the Outer Solar System: Outer Planet Moon Bases, Propulsion, In-Situ Resource Utilization, and Mining Implications

Atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as Helium 3 (3He) and deuterium can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and deuterium were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses were undertaken to investigate resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. This included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and 4He are produced. With these two additional gases, the potential for fueling small and large fleets of additional exploration and exploitation vehicles exists. Analyses of orbital transfer vehicles (OTVs), landers, and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) mining factories are included. Preliminary observations are presented on near-optimal selections of moon base orbital locations, OTV power levels, and OTV and lander rendezvous points. Aerospacecraft with closed cycle gas core propulsion are used to capture the 3He and deuterium from the outer planet atmospheres. Water ice on the outer planet moons has been identified as critical resources for refueling the moon landers and the nuclear electric OTVs. Outer planet moon mining issues are addressed. The issues include the mass fraction of water ice on the moon’s surface, the volume of the mined regolith-water ice matter, and the time to capture the water ice.

In-situ resource utilization↗

Capturing electronic decoherence in quantum-classical dynamics using the ring-polymer-surface-hopping–density-matrix approach

Simulations of coupled electronic and nuclear dynamics in molecules can be quite challenging due to the involved interplay of the many degrees of freedom. Because a full quantum treatment of both electrons and nuclei is computationally very demanding, it is generally restricted to model systems or rather small molecules and short timescales. Mixed quantum-classical dynamics methods such as Tully's fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) can be used to overcome this limitation. However, FSSH is known to poorly describe electronic coherences and decoherence phenomena. Here, we present an approach that combines FSSH with ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) in a specific way that aims to alleviate the coherence problem. Termed the ring-polymer-surface-hopping–density-matrix approach, this method uses an electronic density-matrix formulation to calculate surface hopping rates. Additionally, this incorporates decoherence effects into FSSH in a natural way by taking into account the spatial spreading of the ring polymer that mimics the width of a nuclear wave packet in each RPMD trajectory. By applying our method to Tully's one-dimensional model system, we demonstrate that this method captures a crucial decoherence mechanism that is missing in FSSH. Furthermore, our method turns out to be superior at describing electronic coherences compared with earlier attempts at combining RPMD and FSSH.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Propagation of heavy cosmic-ray nuclei

Techniques for modeling the propagation of heavy cosmic-ray nuclei, and the required atomic and nuclear data, are assembled in this paper. Emphasis is on understanding nuclear composition in the charge range Z = 3-83. Details of the application of 'matrix methods' above a few hundred MeV/nucleon, a new treatment of electron capture decay, and a new table of cosmic ray-stable isotopes are presented. Computation of nuclear fragmentation cross sections, stopping power, and electron stripping and attachment are briefly reviewed.

Letaw, J. R.↗