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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Computing Nonlinear Power Spectra Across Dynamical Dark Energy Model Space with Neural ODEs

I show how to compute the nonlinear power spectrum across the entire $w(z)$ dynamical dark energy model space. Using synthetic ΛCDM data, I train a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) to infer the evolution of the nonlinear matter power spectrum as a function of the background expansion and mean matter density across ∼9 Gyr of cosmic evolution. After training, the model generalises to any dynamical dark energy model parameterised by $w(z)$. With little optimisation, the neural ODE is accurate to within 4% up to $k = 5\, h\, {\mathrm Mpc}^{−1}$. Unlike simulation rescaling methods, neural ODEs naturally extend to summary statistics beyond the power spectrum that are sensitive to the growth history.

cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Detection of Future Cyber-Enabled DSM Data Attacks

Demand-Side Management (DSM) is an essential tool to ensure power system reliability and stability. In future smart grids, certain portions of a customer’s load usage could be under the automatic control of a cyber-enabled DSM program, which selectively schedules loads as a function of electricity prices to improve power balance and grid stability. In this scenario, the security of DSM cyberinfrastructure will be critical as advanced metering infrastructure and communication systems are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Such attacks, in the form of false data injections, can manipulate customer load profiles and cause metering chaos and energy losses in the grid. The feedback mechanism between load management on the consumer side and dynamic price schemes employed by independent system operators can further exacerbate attacks. To study how this feedback mechanism may worsen attacks in future cyber-enabled DSM programs, we propose a novel mathematical framework for (i) modeling the nonlinear relationship between load management and real-time pricing, (ii) simulating residential load data and prices, (iii) creating cyber-attacks, and (iv) detecting said attacks. In this framework, we first develop time-series forecasts to model load demand and use them as inputs to an elasticity model for the price-demand relationship in the DSM loop. This work then investigates the behavior of such a feedback loop under intentional cyber-attacks. We simulate and examine load-price data under different DSM-participation levels with three types of random additive attacks: ramp, sudden, and point attacks. We conduct two investigations for the detection of DSM attacks. The first studies a supervised learning approach, with various classification models, and the second studies the performance of parametric and nonparametric change point detectors. Results conclude that higher amounts of DSM participation can exacerbate ramp and sudden attacks leading to better detection of such attacks, especially with supervised learning classifiers. We also find that nonparametric detection outperforms parametric for smaller user pools, and random point attacks are the hardest to detect with any method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network incorporating soft and hard knowledge constraints

Neural Networks (NNs) have been widely used in supervised learning due to their ability to model complex nonlinear patterns, often presented in high-dimensional data such as images and text. However, traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs (BNNS) could help measure the uncertainty by considering the distributions of the NN model parameters. Besides, domain knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be appropriately incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized Bayesian Neural Network (PR-BNN) model by incorporating different types of knowledge constraints, such as the soft and hard constraints, as a posterior regularization term. Furthermore, we propose to combine the augmented Lagrangian method and the existing BNN solvers for efficient inference. Furthermore, the experiments in simulation and two case studies about aviation landing prediction and solar energy output prediction have shown the knowledge constraints and the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs without the constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reduced-action-integral approach for photon-photon interactions in vacuum

Electromagnetic waves propagating through vacuum can polarize virtual electron–positron pairs; this polarization, in turn, nonlinearly modifies their propagation. A semi-classical nonlinear wave equation describing the propagation is derived from the Euler–Heisenberg Lagrangian density, which captures vacuum polarization effects up to the one-loop level. In this article, we present a reduced-actionintegral approach that enables rapid modeling of nonlinear phenomena arising from the Euler– Heisenberg Lagrangian. Application of the variational principle to the reduced action provides equations of motion for familiar light-pulse parameters, such as spot size, phase, polarization, and phase-front curvature, without requiring full-field simulations. Three examples demonstrate the utility of the approach: phase modulation, birefringence, and frequency mixing.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing magnetized plasmas with dynamic mode decomposition

Accurate and efficient plasma models are essential to understand and control experimental devices. Existing magnetohydrodynamic or kinetic models are nonlinear and computationally intensive and can be difficult to interpret, while often only approximating the true dynamics. In this work, data-driven techniques recently developed in the field of fluid dynamics are leveraged to develop interpretable reduced-order models of plasmas that strike a balance between accuracy and efficiency. In particular, dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to extract spatio-temporal magnetic coherent structures from the experimental and simulation datasets of the helicity injected torus with steady inductive (HIT-SI) experiment. Three-dimensional magnetic surface probes from the HIT-SI experiment are analyzed, along with companion simulations with synthetic internal magnetic probes. A number of leading variants of the DMD algorithm are compared, including the sparsity-promoting and optimized DMD. Optimized DMD results in the highest overall prediction accuracy, while sparsity-promoting DMD yields physically interpretable models that avoid overfitting. These DMD algorithms uncover several coherent magnetic modes that provide new physical insights into the inner plasma structure. These modes were subsequently used to discover a previously unobserved three-dimensional structure in the simulation, rotating at the second injector harmonic. Finally, using data from probes at experimentally accessible locations, DMD identifies a resistive kink mode, a ubiquitous instability seen in magnetized plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Droplet breakup by multimodal nonlinear Rayleigh Taylor instability

A droplet impacted by a shock wave will undergo a process of fragmentation due to the development of interfacial hydrodynamic instabilities. The interface experiences variable acceleration and shear that result in the development of both inertial (Rayleigh–Taylor) and shear (Kelvin–Helmholtz) instabilities. These perturbations grow in time and drive the fragmentation and breakup of the deformed droplet. Experiments are performed on nominally 0.86 mm water droplet subjected to a Mach 7.6 detonation wave, resulting in a high Weber number (~36,000) breakup event. Perturbation growth is measured from a series of high-speed (> MHz) shadowgraph images. It is proposed that, given the size of the large-scale perturbations observed in experiments, these instabilities are growing in the non-linear regime and can be described by bubble-merger models for nonlinear mixing. Calculations are performed for the growth rates and size of these instabilities using deformation and external flow models to establish the time-dependent boundary conditions. The concurrence of the measured perturbation widths and the predictions of the simple model lend credence to the theory. This novel approach serves to open a new avenue in the characterization of droplet breakup via hydrodynamic instabilities.

Droplet breakup↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Material Characterization and Simultaneous Model Calibration for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations is a credible material model. Our ultimate vision is to interlace material characterization and model calibration in a real-time feedback loop, where the current model calibration results will drive the experiment to load regimes that add the most useful information to reduce parameter uncertainty. The current work investigated one key step to this Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) paradigm, using a finite load-path tree to incorporate history/path dependency of nonlinear material models into a network of surrogate models that replace computationally-expensive finite-element analyses. Our reference simulation was an elastoplastic material point subject to biaxial deformation with a Hill anisotropic yield criterion. Training data was generated using either a space-filling or adaptive sampling method, and surrogates were built using either Gaussian process or polynomial chaos expansion methods. Surrogate error was evaluated to be on the order of 10 ⁻5 and 10 ⁻3 percent for the space-filling and adaptive sampling training data, respectively. Direct Bayesian inference was performed with the surrogate network and with the reference material point simulator, and results agreed to within 3 significant figures for the mean parameter values, with a reduction in computational cost over 5 orders of magnitude. These results bought down risk regarding the surrogate network and facilitated a successful FY22-24 full LDRD proposal to research and develop the complete ICC paradigm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analytical modeling of the evolution of the nonlinearity parameter of sensitized stainless steel

Austenitic stainless steels are subject to the precipitation of chromium carbides (M 23 C 6 ) during exposure to high temperatures, causing these alloys to be susceptible to intergranular corrosion due to chromium depletion along grain boundaries. The acoustic nonlinearity parameter, β, shows sensitivity to the formation of carbides in these alloys. The Thermo-Calc TC-PRISMA module was used to model the nucleation and growth of grain boundary M 23 C 6 carbides. The model was verified with scanning transmission electron microscopy analysis that allowed measurements of the grain boundary precipitates. The paper introduces a reduced-order model of the acoustic nonlinearity based on the formation of misfit dislocations at the interface of the grain boundary precipitate and matrix to explain the change in β during isothermal aging. Furthermore, a direct relationship between the radius of the M 23 C 6 grain boundary carbides and β was observed and verified with nonlinear ultrasound measurements on 304L and 316L stainless steels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributed Delay Differential Equation Representations of Cyclic Differential Equations

Compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are used extensively in mathematical biology. When transit between compartments occurs at a constant rate, the well-known linear chain trick can be used to show that the ODE model is equivalent to an Erlang distributed delay differential equation (DDE). Here, we demonstrate that compartmental models with nonlinear transit rates and possibly delayed arguments are also equivalent to a scalar distributed DDE. To illustrate the utility of these equivalences, we calculate the equilibria of the scalar DDE, and compute the characteristic function---without calculating a determinant. Further, we derive the equivalent scalar DDE for two examples of models in mathematical biology and use the DDE formulation to identify physiological processes that were otherwise hidden by the compartmental structure of the ODE model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recurrent convolutional neural networks for modeling nonadiabatic dynamics of quantum-classical systems

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been extensively applied to model the time evolution in fluid dynamics, weather predictions, and even chaotic systems due to their ability to capture temporal dependencies and sequential patterns in data. Here we present an RNN model based on convolutional neural networks for modeling the nonlinear nonadiabatic dynamics of hybrid quantum-classical systems. The dynamical evolution of the hybrid systems is governed by equations of motion for classical degrees of freedom and von Neumann equation for electrons. The Physics-Aware Recurrent Convolution (PARC) neural network structure incorporates a differentiator-integrator architecture that inductively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of generic physical systems. Here, we apply our RNN approach to learn the space-time evolution of a one-dimensional semiclassical Holstein model after an interaction quench. For shallow quenches (small changes in electron-lattice coupling), the deterministic dynamics can be accurately captured using a single-CNN-based recurrent network. In contrast, deep quenches induce chaotic evolution, making long-term trajectory prediction significantly more challenging. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that the PARC-CNN architecture can effectively learn the statistical climate of the Holstein model under deep-quench conditions.

Holstein model↗
DOE OSTI2022

A hybrid meshfree discretization to improve the numerical performance of peridynamic models

Efficient and accurate calculation of spatial integrals is of major interest in the numerical implementation of peridynamics (PD). The standard way to perform this calculation is a particle-based approach that discretizes the strong form of the PD governing equation. This approach has rapidly been adopted by the PD community since it offers some advantages. Additionally, it is computationally cheaper than other available schemes, can conveniently handle material separation, and effectively deals with nonlinear PD models. Nevertheless, PD models are still computationally very expensive compared with those based on the classical continuum mechanics theory, particularly for large-scale problems in three dimensions. This results from the nonlocal nature of the PD theory which leads to interactions of each node of a discretized body with multiple surrounding nodes. Here, we propose a new approach to significantly boost the numerical efficiency of PD models. We propose a discretization scheme that employs a simple collocation procedure and is truly meshfree; i.e., it does not depend on any background integration cells. In contrast to the standard scheme, the proposed scheme requires a much smaller set of neighboring nodes (keeping the same physical length scale) to achieve a specific accuracy and is thus computationally more efficient. Our new scheme is applicable to the case of linear PD models and within neighborhoods where the solution can be approximated by smooth basis functions. Therefore, to fully exploit the advantages of both the standard and the proposed schemes, a hybrid discretization is presented that combines both approaches within an adaptive framework. The high performance of the developed framework is illustrated by several numerical examples, including brittle fracture and corrosion problems in two and three dimensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Alternating Direction Decomposition with Strong Bounding and Convexification (ADDSBC) for Solving Security Constrained AC Unit Commitment Problems

This project aims to develop efficient and robust computational methods for solving the security-constrained unit commitment and alternating current optimal power flow problem (SC-UC-ACOPF). The SC-UC-ACOPF problem is at the center of the short-term operation of the U.S. Power Grid. It is solved every week, every day, and every 10 minutes to plan for the optimal action of electricity generation and consumption by minimizing the generation cost and maintaining power system reliability against potential disruptions of equipment failures. In mathematical terms, SC-UC-ACOPF is a challenging large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model. This means that the decisions involve both discrete variables, e.g. the turning on and off of generators and switching of transmission lines and transformers, and continuous decisions, e.g. the amount of energy generated by each generator and the power flows in the power grid. The physics of the power flow is described by nonlinear equations involving real and reactive power and bus voltages. Another key feature is the large number of contingencies, i.e. the system needs to stay reliable in face of failure of any one equipment, such as transmission lines and generators. The U.S. power grids are extremely complicated and large scale with more than 5,000 generators, 50,000 buses, and 100,000 high-voltage transmission lines, making the SC-UC-ACOPF a very large-scale computation challenge. The research developed in this project aims to solve the SC-UC-ACOPF problems in the three timescales, i.e. weekly, daily, and every 10-min. The proposed computational methods are built on a principled algorithmic approach of decomposition and penalization. More specifically, the algorithm develops spatial and temporal decomposition by exploiting the strong temporal coupling and weak spatial coupling of the UC problem and the complementary feature, i.e. weak temporal coupling and strong spatial coupling of the ACOPF problem. The algorithm also leverages recent progresses in strong convex relaxation of ACOPF. A unique feature of the proposed approach is that it generates a valid, global upper bound on the optimal maximum profit. In this way, a global optimality gap is available to measure the quality of the solution. To further speed up computation, the research team has developed a plethora of effective heuristics to strengthen the iterative penalty-based decomposition framework. For instance, a heuristic is developed to construct inner approximations of the time coupling constraints within the time decoupled problems. Contingencies are pre-screened and low-rank matrix computation is exploited to find the almost unique solution to each contingency. A novel heuristic for line switching is proposed and tested with positive impacts on instances where line switching is beneficial. Taking a systematic approach and carefully handling every detail of the problem pays off. The TIM-GO’s performance throughout the trials and the final event was stellar. TIM-GO garnered the second highest total prize money and is ranked in the top three positions across all categories of comparison.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep-Learning-Based Koopman Modeling for Online Control Synthesis of Nonlinear Power System Transient Dynamics

Power system stability and control have become more challenging due to the increasing uncertainty associated with renewable generation. Here, the performance of conventional control is highly driven by the physics-based offline-developed dynamic models that can deviate from the actual system characteristics under different operating conditions and/or configurations. Data-driven approaches based on online measurements can be a better solution to addressing these issues by capturing real-time operation conditions. This article describes a novel fully data-driven probabilistic framework to derive a linear representation of postcontingency grid dynamics and online prescribe control based on the derived model to enhance transient stability. The complex nonlinear power system dynamics is approximated by a linear model by using multiple neural network modules that infer distributions of the observations and introducing a Koopman layer to sample possible Koopman linear models from the inferred distributions. The trained model features linearity that can be easily incorporated into the existing linear control design paradigm and ease the controller design process. The effectiveness of Koopman-based control designs is validated through comparative case studies, which demonstrate increased prediction accuracy and control performance when applied to a power system with heterogeneous generator dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗