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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of grain dissolution on sloping ground

The static and dynamic stability of natural or constructed slopes can be affected by dissolution or dissolution-like phenomena. Their underlying mechanisms, however, remain unclear. New experimental results and discrete element simulations provide particle-level and macroscale information on the consequences of mineral dissolution on slope behavior. At the microscale, load-carrying grain arches develop around dissolving particles, the porosity increases, and contact force chains evolve to form a honeycomb topology. At the macroscale, while vertical settlements are the prevailing deformation pattern, lateral granular movements that create mass wasting are prominent in sloping ground, even under the quasi-static granular loss. Horizontal grain displacement is maximum at the surface and decreases linearly with the distance from the slope surface to become zero at the bottom boundaries, much like vertical granular displacement along the depth. Sediments with smaller friction angles and steeper slopes experience greater displacement, both vertically and horizontally. Slopes become flatter after dissolution, with the reduction in slope angle directly related to the loss in ground elevation, ΔH/H o . Yet, because of the porous fabric that results from dissolution, vertical shortening is less than the upper bound, estimated from the loss in the solid mass fraction, ΔH/H o ≈SF. Under water-saturated conditions, the post-dissolution fabric may lead to sudden undrained shear and slope slide.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting wind-driven spatial deposition through simulated color images using deep autoencoders

Abstract For centuries, scientists have observed nature to understand the laws that govern the physical world. The traditional process of turning observations into physical understanding is slow. Imperfect models are constructed and tested to explain relationships in data. Powerful new algorithms can enable computers to learn physics by observing images and videos. Inspired by this idea, instead of training machine learning models using physical quantities, we used images, that is, pixel information. For this work, and as a proof of concept, the physics of interest are wind-driven spatial patterns. These phenomena include features in Aeolian dunes and volcanic ash deposition, wildfire smoke, and air pollution plumes. We use computer model simulations of spatial deposition patterns to approximate images from a hypothetical imaging device whose outputs are red, green, and blue (RGB) color images with channel values ranging from 0 to 255. In this paper, we explore deep convolutional neural network-based autoencoders to exploit relationships in wind-driven spatial patterns, which commonly occur in geosciences, and reduce their dimensionality. Reducing the data dimension size with an encoder enables training deep, fully connected neural network models linking geographic and meteorological scalar input quantities to the encoded space. Once this is achieved, full spatial patterns are reconstructed using the decoder. We demonstrate this approach on images of spatial deposition from a pollution source, where the encoder compresses the dimensionality to 0.02% of the original size, and the full predictive model performance on test data achieves a normalized root mean squared error of 8%, a figure of merit in space of 94% and a precision-recall area under the curve of 0.93.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning surrogates for surface complexation model of uranium sorption to oxides

Abstract The safety assessments of the geological storage of spent nuclear fuel require understanding the underground radionuclide mobility in case of a leakage from multi-barrier canisters. Uranium, the most common radionuclide in non-reprocessed spent nuclear fuels, is immobile in reduced form (U(IV) and highly mobile in an oxidized state (U(VI)). The latter form is considered one of the most dangerous environmental threats in the safety assessments of spent nuclear fuel repositories. The sorption of uranium to mineral surfaces surrounding the repository limits their mobility. We quantify uranium sorption using surface complexation models (SCMs). Unfortunately, numerical SCM solvers often encounter convergence problems due to the complex nature of convoluted equations and correlations between model parameters. This study explored two machine learning surrogates for the 2-pK Triple Layer Model of uranium retention by oxide surfaces if released as U(IV) in the oxidizing conditions: random forest regressor and deep neural networks. Our surrogate models, particularly DNN, accurately reproduce SCM model predictions at a fraction of the computational cost without any convergence issues. The safety assessment of spent fuel repositories, specifically the migration of leaked radioactive waste, will benefit from having ultrafast AI/ML surrogates for the computationally expensive sorption models that can be easily incorporated into larger-scale contaminant migration models. One such model is presented here.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Floods of Egypt’s Nile in the 21st century

Extreme precipitation and flooding events are rising globally, necessitating a thorough understanding and sustainable management of water resources. One such setting is the Nile River’s source areas, where high precipitation has led to the filling of Lake Nasser (LN) twice (1998–2003; 2019–2022) in the last two decades and the diversion of overflow to depressions west of the Nile, where it is lost mainly to evaporation. Using temporal satellite-based data, climate models, and continuous rainfall-runoff models, we identified the primary contributor to increased runoff that reached LN in the past two decades and assessed the impact of climate change on the LN’s runoff throughout the twenty-first century. Findings include: (1) the Blue Nile subbasin (BNS) is the primary contributor to increased downstream runoff, (2) the BNS runoff was simulated in the twenty-first century using a calibrated (1965–1992) rainfall-runoff model with global circulation models (GCMs), CCSM4, HadGEM3, and GFDL-CM4.0, projections as model inputs, (3) the extreme value analysis for projected runoff driven by GCMs’ output indicates extreme floods are more severe in the twenty-first century, (4) one adaptation for the projected twenty-first century increase in precipitation (25–39%) and flood (2%-20%) extremes is to recharge Egypt’s fossil aquifers during high flood years.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

All scales must be considered to understand rifts

Feedbacks between chemical, physical, and biological processes at rift zones evolve through various time (seconds to 10 7 yrs) and spatial (microns to 10 6 m) scales. Here, we discuss how consideration of these scales is needed to tap rift energy, water, and mineral resources safely and equitably while preserving biodiversity in these changing settings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences

Process-based modelling offers interpretability and physical consistency in many domains of geosciences but struggles to leverage large datasets efficiently. Machine-learning methods, especially deep networks, have strong predictive skills yet are unable to answer specific scientific questions. Here, in this Perspective, we explore differentiable modelling as a pathway to dissolve the perceived barrier between process-based modelling and machine learning in the geosciences and demonstrate its potential with examples from hydrological modelling. ‘Differentiable’ refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables or parameters, enabling the discovery of high-dimensional unknown relationships. Differentiable modelling involves connecting (flexible amounts of) prior physical knowledge to neural networks, pushing the boundary of physics-informed machine learning. It offers better interpretability, generalizability, and extrapolation capabilities than purely data-driven machine learning, achieving a similar level of accuracy while requiring less training data. Additionally, the performance and efficiency of differentiable models scale well with increasing data volumes. Under data-scarce scenarios, differentiable models have outperformed machine-learning models in producing short-term dynamics and decadal-scale trends owing to the imposed physical constraints. Differentiable modelling approaches are primed to enable geoscientists to ask questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized physical relationships. Future work should address computational challenges, reduce uncertainty, and verify the physical significance of outputs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Standing shock prevents propagation of sparks in supersonic explosive flows

Abstract Volcanic jet flows in explosive eruptions emit radio frequency signatures, indicative of their fluid dynamic and electrostatic conditions. The emissions originate from sparks supported by an electric field built up by the ejected charged volcanic particles. When shock-defined, low-pressure regions confine the sparks, the signatures may be limited to high-frequency content corresponding to the early components of the avalanche-streamer-leader hierarchy. Here, we image sparks and a standing shock together in a transient supersonic jet of micro-diamonds entrained in argon. Fluid dynamic and kinetic simulations of the experiment demonstrate that the observed sparks originate upstream of the standing shock. The sparks are initiated in the rarefaction region, and cut off at the shock, which would limit their radio frequency emissions to a tell-tale high-frequency regime. We show that sparks transmit an impression of the explosive flow, and open the way for novel instrumentation to diagnose currently inaccessible explosive phenomena.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global divergence in urban demographic change and migration patterns

Cities are central to economic development, climate adaptation and social stability, yet globally consistent evidence on how city populations are changing remains limited. Here we analyze annual age- and sex-structured population estimates for more than 10,000 cities worldwide from 2000 to 2020 and show that urban demographic change was highly uneven. Globally, the ratio of children and older adults to working-age adults declined from 0.87 to 0.59, but smaller cities remained consistently younger than larger cities, especially in Africa. We also find pronounced spatial variation in urban sex ratios, including strong male surpluses in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, consistent with patterns of labor migration. Finally, we estimate that 45% of urban population growth was attributable to net migration and 55% to natural increase. These results show that national averages can obscure substantial differences between cities, and highlight the value of globally consistent city-level demographic estimates for understanding regional demographic change and informing locally tailored urban planning.

development studies↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tundra Vegetation Community Type, Not Microclimate, Controls Asynchrony of Above‐ and Below‐Ground Phenology

The below-ground growing season often extends beyond the above-ground growing season in tundra ecosystems and as the climate warms, shifts in growing seasons are expected. However, we do not yet know to what extent, when and where asynchrony in above- and below-ground phenology occurs and whether variation is driven by local vegetation communities or spatial variation in microclimate. Here, we combined above- and below-ground plant phenology metrics to compare the relative timings and magnitudes of leaf and fine-root growth and senescence across microclimates and plant communities at five sites across the Arctic and alpine tundra biome. We observed asynchronous growth between above- and below-ground plant tissue, with the below-ground season extending up to 74% (~56 days) beyond the onset of above-ground leaf senescence. Plant community type, rather than microclimate, was a key factor controlling the timing, productivity, and growth rates of fine roots, with graminoid roots exhibiting a distinct ‘pulse’ of growth later into the growing season than shrub roots. Our findings indicate the potential of vegetation change to influence below-ground carbon storage as the climate warms and roots remain active in unfrozen soils for longer. Taken together, our findings of increased root growth in soils that remain thawed later into the growing season, in combination with ongoing tundra vegetation change including increased shrub and graminoid abundance, indicate increased below-ground productivity and altered carbon cycling in the tundra biome.

below-ground↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO2 pipeline data catalog

This "Data Catalog" is an excel spreadsheet of collected and catalogued spatial and non-spatial public datasets in relevance to and support of CO2 transport (pipelines) infrastructure development and risk modeling. Includes data associated with CO2 sources, sinks, and transportation.

CO2↗
DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leveraging Machine Learning and Geo-Tagged Citizen Science Data to Disentangle the Factors of Avian Mortality Events at the Species Level

Abrupt environmental changes can affect the population structures of living species and cause habitat loss and fragmentations in the ecosystem. During August–October 2020, remarkably high mortality events of avian species were reported across the western and central United States, likely resulting from winter storms and wildfires. However, the differences of mortality events among various species responding to the abrupt environmental changes remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on three species, Wilson’s Warbler, Barn Owl, and Common Murre, with the highest mortality events that had been recorded by citizen scientists. We leveraged the citizen science data and multiple remotely sensed earth observations and employed the ensemble random forest models to disentangle the species responses to winter storm and wildfire. We found that the mortality events of Wilson’s Warbler were primarily impacted by early winter storms, with more deaths identified in areas with a higher average daily snow cover. The Barn Owl’s mortalities were more identified in places with severe wildfire-induced air pollution. Both winter storms and wildfire had relatively mild effects on the mortality of Common Murre, which might be more related to anomalously warm water. Our findings highlight the species-specific responses to environmental changes, which can provide significant insights into the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change and avian conservations. Additionally, the study emphasized the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring large-scale abrupt environmental changes and conservation using remotely sensed and citizen science data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Urban Pluvial Frequency Flooding Hotspots Using the Topographic Control Index and Remote Sensing Radar Images for Early Warning Systems

Identifying areas that frequently experience post-rainfall ponding is essential for effective flood mitigation and planning. This study integrates Sentinel-1 radar imagery and the Topographic Control Index (TCI) to identify 378 flood-prone urban depressions in Beaumont, Texas. Out of 159 major rainfall events, only six had Sentinel-1 radar imagery acquired within six hours of peak rainfall, and these were used to generate the flood frequency map; the ground-based flood sensor data were used to verify that these selected events corresponded to actual peak rainfall and to validate radar-detected water pixels. Validation results showed 100% precision, 70.87% recall, an F1-score of 82.95%, and 71.32% overall accuracy. Approximately 84% of medium-to-high TCI depressions overlapped with Beaumont’s two-year inundation map, confirming a strong relationship between TCI and observed flooding. A total of 124 depressions retained significant water, and after excluding 25 engineered detention ponds, 99 natural depressions remained flood vulnerable. Among these, 74 depressions with medium or high TCI were identified as the highest-priority nuisance flooding hotspots. The results demonstrate that combining TCI with radar imagery provides a reliable and cost-effective approach for identifying areas prone to frequent urban ponding. This framework supports practical decision-making for drainage improvements, hotspot identification, and early-warning system development in urban flood-prone regions.

Sentinel-1 radar imagery↗
NASA NTRS2004

Relief Evolution in Tectonically Active Mountain Ranges

The overall aims of this 3-yr project, as originally proposed were to: (1) investigate quantitatively the roles of fluvial and glacial erosion in the evolution of relief in mountainous regions, and (2) test rigorously the quality and accuracy of SRTM topographic data in areas of rugged relief - both the most challenging and of greatest interest to geomorphic, neotectonic, and hazards applications. Natural laboratories in both the western US and the Southern Alps of New Zealand were identified as most promising. The project has been both successful and productive, despite the fact that no SRTM data for our primary field sites in New Zealand were released on the time frame of the work effort. Given the delayed release of SRTM data, we pursued the scientific questions of the roles of fluvial and, especially, glacial erosion in the evolution of relief in mountainous regions using available digital elevation models (DEMs) for the Southern Alps of New Zealand (available at both 25m and 50m pixel sizes), and USGS 10m and 30m DEMs within the Western US. As emphasized in the original proposal, we chose the emphasis on the role of glacial modification of topographic relief because there has been little quantitative investigation of glacial erosion processes at landscape scale. This is particularly surprising considering the dramatic sculpting of most mid- and high-latitude mountain ranges, the prodigious quantities of glacially-derived sediment in terrestrial and marine basins, and the current cross-disciplinary interest in the role of denudational processes in orogenesis and the evolution of topography in general. Moreover, the evolution of glaciated landscapes is not only a fundamental problem in geomorphology in its own right, but also is at the heart of the debate over Late Cenozoic linkages between climate and tectonics.

Whipple, Kelin X.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Comparison of the KSC-ER Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN)

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Eastern Range (ER) are located in a region of Florida that experiences the highest area density of lightning strikes to ground in the United States, with values approaching 16 fl/km 2/yr when accumulated in 10x10 km (100 sq km) grids (see Figure 1). Consequently, the KSC-ER use data derived from two cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning detection networks to detect hazardous weather, the "Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System" (CGLSS) that is owned and operated by the Air Force and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) that is owned and operated by Vaisala, Inc. These systems are used to provide lightning warnings for ground operations and to insure mission safety during space launches at the KSC-ER. In order to protect the rocket and shuttle fleets, NASA and the Air Force follow a set of lightning safety guidelines that are called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC). These rules are designed to insure that vehicles are not exposed to the hazards of natural or triggered lightning that would in any way jeopardize a mission or cause harm to the shuttle astronauts. Also, if any CG lightning strikes too close to a vehicle on a launch pad, it can cause time-consuming mission delays due to the extensive retests that are often required for vehicles and/or payloads when this occurs. If any CG lightning strike is missed or mis-located by even a small amount, the result could have significant safety implications, require expensive retests, or create unnecessary delays or scrubs in launches. Therefore, it is important to understand the performance of each lightning detection system in considerable detail.

Ward, Jennifer G.↗