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At least 325 records · Page 18

Mexico and U.S. Power Systems Under Variations in Natural Gas Prices

This study examines the impact of natural gas prices on the power systems of Mexico and the United States. For this, we develop an integrated modeling framework by soft linking three different techno-economic bottom-up models of the power and energy systems, one partial equilibrium model of the natural gas sector, and a partial equilibrium model of the Mexican energy sector. Our results show several interesting results: high natural gas prices raise the use of carbon-intensive technologies in the short-term and boost renewable investments at longer time intervals, increasing emissions in earlier periods and reducing them thereafter. Regarding system costs, because of more capital-intensive green power and lower expenditures in raw energy carriers, capital costs rise and operating costs decrease in the long haul. Furthermore, we see an increase in natural gas demand when its price is low, reducing long-term capital and operating costs through cheaper energy inputs in natural gas facilities and a lower share of capital-intensive renewable facilities in the power system. Concerning emissions, low natural-gas prices decrease coal use in the United States, reducing anthropogenic emissions until the last stages of the optimization period. For Mexico, they show heterogeneous results across models. Policymakers can use this study's results to understand the influence of natural gas prices in the Mexican and United States energy sectors.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Native Plasmid-Encoded Mercury Resistance Genes Are Functional and Demonstrate Natural Transformation in Environmental Bacterial Isolates

Plasmid-mediated horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is a major driver of genetic diversity in bacteria. We experimentally validated the function of a putative mercury resistance operon present on an abundant 8-kbp native plasmid found in groundwater samples without detectable levels of mercury. Phylogenetic analyses of the plasmid-encoded mercury reductases from the studied groundwater site show them to be distinct from those reported in proximal metal-contaminated sites. We synthesized the entire native plasmid and demonstrated that the plasmid was sufficient to confer functional mercury resistance in Escherichia coli . Given the possibility that natural transformation is a prevalent HGT mechanism in the low-cell-density environments of groundwaters, we also assayed bacterial strains from this environment for competence. We used the native plasmid-encoded metal resistance to design a screen and identified 17 strains positive for natural transformation. We selected 2 of the positive strains along with a model bacterium to fully confirm HGT via natural transformation. From an ecological perspective, the role of the native plasmid population in providing advantageous traits combined with the microbiome’s capacity to take up environmental DNA enables rapid adaptation to environmental stresses. Horizontal transfer of mobile genetic elements via natural transformation has been poorly understood in environmental microbes. Here, we confirm the functionality of a native plasmid-encoded mercury resistance operon in a model microbe and then query for the dissemination of this resistance trait via natural transformation into environmental bacterial isolates. We identified 17 strains including Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria to be naturally competent. These strains were able to successfully take up the plasmid DNA and obtain a clear growth advantage in the presence of mercury. Our study provides important insights into gene dissemination via natural transformation enabling rapid adaptation to dynamic stresses in groundwater environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Natural gas vehicles : Status, barriers, and opportunities.

In the United States, recent shale gas discoveries have generated renewed interest in using natural gas as a vehicular fuel, primarily in fleet applications, while outside the United States, natural gas vehicle use has expanded significantly in the past decade. In this report for the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities Program - a public-private partnership that advances the energy, economic, and environmental security of the U.S. by supporting local decisions that reduce petroleum use in the transportation sector - we have examined the state of natural gas vehicle technology, current market status, energy and environmental benefits, implications regarding advancements in European natural gas vehicle technologies, research and development efforts, and current market barriers and opportunities for greater market penetration. The authors contend that commercial intracity trucks are a prime area for advancement of this fuel. Therefore, we examined an aggressive future market penetration of natural gas heavy-duty vehicles that could be seen as a long-term goal. Under this scenario using Energy Information Administration projections and GREET life-cycle modeling of U.S. on-road heavy-duty use, natural gas vehicles would reduce petroleum consumption by approximately 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, while another 400,000 barrels of oil per day reduction could be achieved with significant use of natural gas off-road vehicles. This scenario would reduce daily oil consumption in the United States by about 8%.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Alaska Liquid Natural Gas Pipeline Front-End Engineering & Design (Final Technical Report)

The Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) is Alaska’s natural gas infrastructure development corporation established in 2013. AGDC’s mission is to maximize the benefit of Alaska’s vast North Slope natural gas resources for Alaskans through the development of infrastructure necessary to move the gas into local and international markets. AGDC was identified for a Congressionally Directed Spending (CDS) project for funding in the Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2023 under the heading: “Congressionally Directed Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Projects.” The CDS included $\$$4,000,000 of direct funding, with required match funds, to move the project forward. Alaska’s North Slope holds America’s largest proven and conventional natural gas supply. The integrated Alaska LNG Project will deliver 3.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from Alaska’s North Slope gas fields to Alaskans as well as to a marine terminal located at tidewater in Cook Inlet. Alaska LNG is an integrated gas infrastructure project with three major components: a gas treatment plant (GTP) located at Prudhoe Bay, an 807-mile (1,287 km) gas pipeline (Mainline Pipeline) to Southcentral Alaska with interconnections for in-state gas use, and a natural gas liquefaction facility (LNG Facility) in Nikiski, Alaska. The integrated Alaska LNG Project has several strategic advantages including proven gas resources, existing upstream infrastructure, an advantageous arctic climate for LNG production, proximity to LNG markets, a track record of reliability from a state that first began exporting LNG to Japan in 1969, and broad support from Alaskans. North Slope natural gas is a conventional resource and can be produced with minimal drilling at a fraction of the carbon dioxide emissions of shale gas from the Lower 48 states. Through the development of the Alaska LNG Project, Alaska can provide energy security to Alaskans and a stable source of LNG to the Asia-Pacific region for generations. The Alaska LNG Project has been progressed through Pre-Front-End Engineering Design (Pre-FEED) and has obtained all major federal and State of Alaska permits and authorizations to construct the project, including the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order Granting Authorization Under Section 3 of the Natural Gas Act. On September 5, 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) awarded Project No. DE-FE0032307 to AGDC with the objective to progress the project to Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) entry for the Alaska LNG Project Phase 1 Pipeline. The award Start Date was made effective July 1, 2023, with a Period of Performance through June 30, 2025. On March 27, 2025, AGDC announced the execution of definitive commercial agreements with Glenfarne Alaska LNG, LLC, an affiliate of Glenfarne Group, LLC, (together as “Glenfarne”), to lead the development of the Alaska LNG Project and enter FEED for the Phase 1 Pipeline. Project activities are now funded and directed by this private sector partner who holds a 75% interest in 8 Star Alaska, LLC (8 Star). 8 Star holds the assets of the Alaska LNG Project. As planned, AGDC continues to hold 25% minority interest in 8 Star and will play a governance role moving forward with Alaska LNG. This definitive commercial agreement milestone led to the successful completion of AGDC’s Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO) for FEED entry and led to the completion of DOE Project No. DE-FE0032307. At conclusion of the SOPO, AGDC also reached the award’s maximum federal cost share of $\$$4,000,000. AGDC is, therefore, providing Final Technical Report to close out DOE Project No. DE-FE0032307.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Methodology for the Assessment of Unconventional (Continuous) Resources with an Application to the Greater Natural Buttes Gas Field, Utah

The Greater Natural Buttes tight natural gas field is an unconventional (continuous) accumulation in the Uinta Basin, Utah, that began production in the early 1950s from the Upper Cretaceous Mesaverde Group. Three years later, production was extended to the Eocene Wasatch Formation. With the exclusion of 1100 non-productive ('dry') wells, we estimate that the final recovery from the 2500 producing wells existing in 2007 will be about 1.7 trillion standard cubic feet (TSCF) (48.2 billion cubic meters (BCM)). The use of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well is common in assessments of unconventional resources, and it is one of the main sources of information to forecast undiscovered resources. Each calculated recovery value has an associated drainage area that generally varies from well to well and that can be mathematically subdivided into elemental subareas of constant size and shape called cells. Recovery per 5-acre cells at Greater Natural Buttes shows spatial correlation; hence, statistical approaches that ignore this correlation when inferring EUR values for untested cells do not take full advantage of all the information contained in the data. More critically, resulting models do not match the style of spatial EUR fluctuations observed in nature. This study takes a new approach by applying spatial statistics to model geographical variation of cell EUR taking into account spatial correlation and the influence of fractures. We applied sequential indicator simulation to model non-productive cells, while spatial mapping of cell EUR was obtained by applying sequential Gaussian simulation to provide multiple versions of reality (realizations) having equal chances of being the correct model. For each realization, summation of EUR in cells not drained by the existing wells allowed preparation of a stochastic prediction of undiscovered resources, which range between 2.6 and 3.4 TSCF (73.6 and 96.3 BCM) with a mean of 2.9 TSCF (82.1 BCM) for Greater Natural Buttes. A second approach illustrates the application of multiple-point simulation to assess a hypothetical frontier area for which there is no production information but which is regarded as being similar to Greater Natural Buttes.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Natural gas odorants: A scoping review of health effects

Organosulfur compounds are intentionally added to natural gas as malodorants with the intent of short-term nasal inhalation to aid in leak detection. Regulatory exposure limits have not been established for all commonly used natural gas odorants, and recent community-level exposure events and growing evidence of indoor natural gas leakage have raised concerns associated with natural gas odorant exposures. We conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed scientific publications on human exposures and animal toxicological studies of natural gas odorants to assess toxicological profiles, exposure potential, health effects and regulatory guidelines associated with commonly used natural gas odorants. We identified only 22 studies which met inclusion criteria for full review. Overall, there is limited evidence of both transient nonspecific health symptoms and clinically diagnosed causative neurotoxic effects associated with prolonged odorant exposures. Across seven community-level exposure events and two occupational case reports, consistent symptom patterns included: headache, ocular irritation, nose and throat irritation, respiratory complaints such as shortness of breath and asthma attacks, and skin irritation and rash. Of these, respiratory inflammation and asthma exacerbations are the most debilitating, whereas the high prevalence of ocular and dermatologic symptoms suggest a non-inhalation route of exposure. The limited evidence available raises the possibility that organosulfur odorants may pose health risks at exposures much lower than presently understood, though additional dose-response studies are needed to disentangle specific toxicologic effects from nonspecific responses to noxious organosulfur odors. Numerous recommendations are provided including more transparent and prescriptive natural gas odorant use practices.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Regional difference and related cooling electricity savings of air pollutant affected natural ventilation in commercial buildings across the US

Maintaining indoor air pollutants under acceptable levels is significant to protect occupants from exposure to excessive air pollutants in natural ventilation. In this paper, using the representative air pollutant concentration data, we present the natural ventilation usability with associated cooling energy saving potentials in different location settings (urban and city center, suburban and rural) of the US under the influence of local weather conditions and major outdoor air pollutants, i.e. PM2.5, PM10 and ozone. It is found that the impacts of air pollutants on natural ventilation are usually higher in urban/suburban areas than rural areas (up to 25% difference) with the PM2.5 being the most significant outdoor air pollutant affecting natural ventilation usage. Furthermore, ozone could become increasingly influential on natural ventilation as moving from urban to suburban/rural areas. As to the cooling energy saving considering the impacts of outdoor air pollutants, natural ventilation is estimated to save approximately 10%–40% cooling energy (800–2600 kWh per small commercial building) annually in different location settings of investigated areas across the US. The following economic analysis demonstrates that these electricity savings lead to approximately 80–540 dollars annual savings of building operation cost per building. If the time of use rate is adopted, these cost savings could further increase by approximately 20% (Los Angeles) to more than 50% (Albuquerque) depending on different rate structures, which further demonstrates the potential of adopting natural ventilation as a sustainability measurement with benefits for building owners without compromising occupants health.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Role of interaction between hydraulic and natural fractures on production

One of the main purposes of hydraulic fracturing in unconventional resources such as shale is to improve the connectivity between existing natural fractures and the production well. Since the inherent permeability of shale is extremely low, this newly formed fracture connectivity provides faster paths for the hydrocarbon stored in preexisting natural fractures. In this study, we performed numerical simulations of the free gas production at large scale fractured reservoir with different pre-existing natural fracture network intensities and with variable hydraulic fracture sizes and staging. We explored production characteristics as a function of the properties of both, natural fractures (intensity) and hydraulic fractures (size and staging). Our hypothesis is that once maximum fracture connectivity is achieved, additional stimulation does not increase production significantly. In this numerical study we use an advanced modeling tool to study fractures connectivity, Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) approach, which can represent fracture networks similar to those observed on individual reservoir sites. In our model the horizontal production well and vertical hydraulic fractures were deterministically defined and surrounded by stochastically generated natural fracture networks. The performed numerical experiments show how fracture connectivity depends on hydraulic fracture settings in fractured reservoir with different preexisting fracture densities. We numerically showed that cumulative free gas production is not affected significantly by hydraulic fractures size (25 m–150 m) or spacing (15 m–45 m) for dense natural fracture networks. However, the hydraulic fracture size is important in reservoirs with sparse natural fractures, although spacing (number of stages) does not play a significant role.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of soiling and weathering on the albedo of building envelope materials: Lessons learned from natural exposure in two European cities and tuning of a laboratory simulation practice

Chemical and physical stress, weathering, organic and inorganic matter deposition, and microbial growth over time, or “aging”, affect the optical-radiative performance of building envelope materials. Natural exposure helps to quantify these effects, but it usually requires several years. Further, the contribution of the different degradation agents cannot be isolated, and results from different campaigns cannot be easily compared because of the variability in the boundary conditions producing aging. Here in this paper we present an adaptation of the protocol implemented by ASTM as D7897-18 “Standard Practice for Laboratory Soiling and Weathering of Roofing Materials to Simulate Effects of Natural Exposure on Solar Reflectance and Thermal Emittance”. The aim is to reproduce in the laboratory the changes in albedo (solar reflectance) and thermal emittance experienced by building envelope materials in European urban areas rather than in the United States. We tuned the spraying duration and weathering cycles, and we compared the UV–vis–NIR reflectances of naturally-aged specimens (48 months in Rome and Milan) of roofing and wall finish materials to those exposed to laboratory weathering and soiling. Excluding those materials that show early physical-chemical degradation, the mean absolute deviation between natural and laboratory exposure of roofing products is equal to 0.027 in albedo. This is a lower value than the differences between two natural exposure campaigns at the same site. We clearly defined the limits of application of the protocol, providing an appraisal of the repeatability of natural aging. Moreover, we identified possible improvements in the methodology to conduct both natural and laboratory exposure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Upgraded biogas from municipal solid waste for natural gas substitution and CO{sub 2} reduction – A case study of Austria, Italy, and Spain

Highlights: • Biogas can be upgraded to create biomethane, a substitute to natural gas. • Biogas upgrading was applied to landfills and anaerobic digestors in 3 countries. • Up to 0.6% of a country’s consumption of natural gas could be replaced by biomethane. • Italy could save 46% of the national CO{sub 2} emissions attributed to the waste sector. • Scenarios were created to increase biomethane production. - Abstract: Biogas is rich in methane and can be further purified through biogas upgrading technologies, presenting a viable alternative to natural gas. Landfills and anaerobic digestors treating municipal solid waste are a large source of such biogas. They therefore offer an attractive opportunity to tap into this potential source of natural gas while at the same time minimizing the global warming impact resulting from methane emissions in waste management schemes (WMS) and fossil fuel consumption reduction. This study looks at the current municipal solid waste flows of Spain, Italy, and Austria over one year (2009), in order to determine how much biogas is generated. Then it examines how much natural gas could be substituted by using four different biogas upgrading technologies. Based on current waste generation rates, exploratory but realistic WMS were created for each country in order to maximize biogas production and potential for natural gas substitution. It was found that the potential substitution of natural gas by biogas resulting from the current WMS seems rather insignificant: 0.2% for Austria, 0.6% for Italy and 0.3% for Spain. However, if the WMS is redesigned to maximize biogas production, these figures can increase to 0.7% for Austria, 1% for Italy and 2% for Spain. Furthermore, the potential CO{sub 2} reduction as a consequence of capturing the biogas and replacing fossil fuel can result in up to a 93% reduction of the annual national waste greenhouse gas emissions of Spain and Italy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emissions Implications of Future Natural Gas Production and Use in the U.S. and in the Rocky Mountain Region

Enhanced prospects for natural gas production raise questions about the balance of impacts on air quality, as increased emissions from production activities are considered alongside the reductions expected when natural gas is burned in place of other fossil fuels. This study explores how trends in natural gas production over the coming decades might affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) for the United States and its Rocky Mountain region. The MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) energy system optimization model is used with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's nine-region database to compare scenarios for natural gas supply and demand, constraints on the electricity generation mix, and GHG emissions fees. Through 2050, total energy system GHG emissions show little response to natural gas supply assumptions, due to offsetting changes across sectors. Policy-driven constraints or emissions fees are needed to achieve net reductions. In most scenarios, wind is a less expensive source of new electricity supplies in the Rocky Mountain region than natural gas. U.S. NOx emissions decline in all the scenarios considered. Increased VOC emissions from natural gas production offset part of the anticipated reductions from the transportation sector, especially in the Rocky Mountain region.

emissions↗

Preparation of vinyl acetate grafted natural rubber by irradiation method

Improvement in properties of natural rubber could be done by several methods. In this research, gamma radiation technique, which is simple, accurate, easy to control and clean, was applied to enhance the properties of natural rubber (NR) in latex state. The purpose of this research is to study the appropriate condition for preparing grafted natural rubber latex by using irradiation method. Vinyl acetate monomers (VAc) were grafted onto natural rubber latex (NR-g-PVAc) at 0-10 kGys by gamma radiation from Cobalt-60 source at room temperature. Physical properties of grafted natural rubber such as chloroform number, swelling ratio and gel content were measured. The VAc content of NR-g-PVAc was investigated by titration and visualized by FTIR spectroscopy. The FTIR spectra of NR-g-PVAc prepared at 0-10 kGys showed characteristic peaks of the vinyl acetate confirming that VAc could be grafted onto natural rubber molecular chains effectively under appropriate irradiation conditions. From the result, radiation grafting was found to be a useful technique for grafting of vinyl acetate onto natural rubber.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Joint Management and Optimization of Residential Natural Gas and Electricity Distribution Networks Coupled via Fuel Cells

The attractive features of natural gas as well as the growing electric power demand worldwide have created increasing interest in natural-gas-based distributed generation applications for electric distribution networks. Here, this paper investigates the interdependency between a residential natural gas network and an electric distribution network that are linked together via fuel cells. The modeling of the natural gas network is introduced first, and then the algorithm for gas flow study is presented. The optimal placement and sizing of fuel cell based distributed generation systems are formulated to minimize the losses in both the natural gas network and the electric distribution grid, subject to the constraints imposed by both networks. In addition, a probabilistic model for both gas and electricity demands is developed based on historical electricity and natural gas demand data. A K-means clustering method is used to determine the hourly load states to solve the joint probabilistic optimization problem. Simulation studies are carried out on an integrated system consisting of the IEEE 69-bus distribution network and a radial 27-node natural gas network to verify the developed optimization model and the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Variation on a theme: the structures and biosynthesis of specialized fatty acid natural products in plants

SUMMARY Plants are able to construct lineage‐specific natural products from a wide array of their core metabolic pathways. Considerable progress has been made toward documenting and understanding, for example, phenylpropanoid natural products derived from phosphoenolpyruvate via the shikimate pathway, terpenoid compounds built using isopentyl pyrophosphate, and alkaloids generated by the extensive modification of amino acids. By comparison, natural products derived from fatty acids have received little attention, except for unusual fatty acids in seed oils and jasmonate‐like oxylipins. However, scattered but numerous reports show that plants are able to generate many structurally diverse compounds from fatty acids, including some with highly elaborate and unique structural features that have novel bioproduct functionalities. Furthermore, although recent work has shed light on multiple new fatty acid natural product biosynthesis pathways and products in diverse plant species, these discoveries have not been reviewed. The aims of this work, therefore, are to (i) review and systematize our current knowledge of the structures and biosynthesis of fatty acid‐derived natural products that are not seed oils or jasmonate‐type oxylipins, specifically, polyacetylenic, very‐long‐chain, and aromatic fatty acid‐derived natural products, and (ii) suggest priorities for future investigative steps that will bring our knowledge of fatty acid‐derived natural products closer to the levels of knowledge that we have attained for other phytochemical classes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ISO New England Dual Fuel Capabilities to Limit Natural Gas and Electricity Interdependencies

This report examines technical, regulatory, and market issues associated with operating power plants primarily fueled with natural gas, on a secondary fuel, such as fuel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG). In addition, a regional case study was completed to identify the current and near-term potential for dual fuel operation in New England, along with a market impact analysis of potential cost savings during an extreme weather event. The New England Independent System Operator (ISO-NE) was selected as the study area based on a preponderance of natural gas-fired generators contributing to the regional generating capacity mix (nearly 50 percent natural gas), limited natural gas supply infrastructure, and the potential for natural gas delivery disruptions due to cold weather events, exacerbated by the lack of bulk natural gas storage in the region.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Promoting Domestic and International Consensus on Fossil Energy Technologies – Program Area 2: International Oil and Natural Gas

The Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy's (FE) Office of Oil and Natural Gas (FE Oil & Gas) works to achieve a more secure energy future through the diversified supply of oil and natural gas resources while minimizing environmental impacts. FE Oil & Gas strives to ensure responsible development of these resources through research, policy analysis, regulation, and international leadership. The Office of Oil and Natural Gas supports research and policy options to ensure environmentally sustainable supplies of oil and natural gas for American consumers. The program conducts international activities that support environmental protection and safety of global oil and gas production. The program also oversees the import and export of oil and natural gas. USEA will help FE Oil & Gas to promote safe and responsible development of oil and natural gas in the United States and in other countries by sharing best practices and advanced technology. This will benefit the public by ensuring reliable, clean and affordable supplies of oil and natural gas in the United States.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Understanding Your Utility Bills: Natural Gas

As a fossil fuel NG is a colorless and odorless gas in its natural state and is one of the cleanest burning hydrocarbons. The factors that contribute to the popularity of natural gas in the US manufacturing sector include ease of availability, clean burning properties, market deregulation, and increased domestic production. Analyzing natural gas (NG) bills can sometimes pose unique problems. Learning to read your utility bills and understand why your utility charges different fees is critical in maximizing your cost savings through energy efficiency. A key to creating a baseline is collecting and analyzing natural gas utility data. Historical data from NG bills can identify trends and help to find the baseline usage for a manufacturing operation. This guide intends to help Better Plant Program partners in understanding natural gas bills and analyzing usage to reduce costs. The guide focuses on natural gas production and transportation, understanding key charges on bills, different rate structures, and saving opportunities. A fictitious worked out example in the final section demonstrates how readers could go about analyzing natural gas bills.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Quantifying methane emissions from natural gas production in north-eastern Pennsylvania

Natural gas infrastructure releases methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated emission rate associated with the production and transportation of natural gas is uncertain, hindering our understanding of its greenhouse footprint. This study presents a new application of inverse methodology for estimating regional emission rates from natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania. An inventory of CH 4 emissions was compiled for major sources in Pennsylvania. This inventory served as input emission data for the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry enabled (WRF-Chem), and atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction fields were generated at 3 km resolution. Simulated atmospheric CH 4 enhancements from WRF-Chem were compared to observations obtained from a 3-week flight campaign in May 2015. Modelled enhancements from sources not associated with upstream natural gas processes were assumed constant and known and therefore removed from the optimization procedure, creating a set of observed enhancements from natural gas only. Simulated emission rates from unconventional production were then adjusted to minimize the mismatch between aircraft observations and model-simulated mole fractions for 10 flights. To evaluate the method, an aircraft mass balance calculation was performed for four flights where conditions permitted its use. Using the model optimization approach, the weighted mean emission rate from unconventional natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania approach is found to be 0.36 % of total gas production, with a 2 σ confidence interval between 0.27 and 0.45 % of production. Similarly, the mean emission estimates using the aircraft mass balance approach are calculated to be 0.40 % of regional natural gas production, with a 2 σ confidence interval between 0.08 and 0.72 % of production. Furthermore these emission rates as a percent of production are lower than rates found in any other basin using a top-down methodology, and may be indicative of some characteristics of the basin that make sources from the north-eastern Marcellus region unique.

03 NATURAL GAS↗