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At least 325 records · Page 18

Sensitivity analysis as an aid in modelling and control of (poorly-defined) ecological systems

A literature review of the use of sensitivity analyses in modelling nonlinear, ill-defined systems, such as ecological interactions is presented. Discussions of previous work, and a proposed scheme for generalized sensitivity analysis applicable to ill-defined systems are included. This scheme considers classes of mathematical models, problem-defining behavior, analysis procedures (especially the use of Monte-Carlo methods), sensitivity ranking of parameters, and extension to control system design.

Hornberger, G. M.↗

Electromagnetic cascades in pulsars

The development of pair-photon cascades initiated by high energy electrons above a pulsar polar cap is simulated numerically. The calculation uses the energy of the primary electron, the magnetic field strength, and the period of rotation as parameters, and follows the curvature radiation emitted by the primary, the conversion of this radiation to e(+)e(-) pairs in the intense fields, and the quantized synchrotron radiation by the secondary pairs. A recursive technique allows the tracing of an indefinite number of generations using a Monte Carlo method. Gamma-ray and pair spectra are calculated for cascades in different parts of the polar cap and with different acceleration models. It is found that synchrotron radiation from secondary pairs makes an important contribution to the gamma-ray spectrum above 25 MeV, and that the final gamma-ray and pair spectra are insensitive to the height of the accelerating region, as long as the acceleration of the primary electrons is not limited by radiation reaction.

Daugherty, J. K.↗

The predicted deviation from the Z-sq dependence of the ion chamber and the Cerenkov counter response on the HEAO-3 experiment

The influence of the Mott cross section in producing a departure from a Z-sq dependence in the Heavy Nuclei Experiment instrument on board the HEAO-3 satellite is examined, along with the related problem of secondary electron energy transport through the instrument. A Monte Carlo method of electron transport and a modification of the Laulainen and Bichsel (1972) method were used to calculate energy deposition in the chamber, and corrections to the Cerenkov counter response were made. A maximum correction of a change of Z values of a -4 at Z equals 78 was found, and further calculations to determine the Mott cross sections for Z between 26-50 are indicated.

Derrickson, J. H.↗

Lidar clear atmosphere multiple scattering dependence on receiver range

The degree of multiple scattering encountered by nadir-directed lidar in clear atmosphere conditions was assessed by the Monte Carlo method based on a model of the vertical distribution of aerosol scattering in the atmosphere. The lowest 3 km of the atmosphere were regarded as containing 90% of the aerosol optical thickness, with the unity normalized value for the forward peak of the aerosol phase function being 4.38 at a 694.3 nm laser wavelength. Results were obtained for two lidar receiver heights for three receiver field of view (FOV) angular halfwidths. An increase in receiver height was determined to cause a significant increase in the amount of angular scattering of the lidar signal. A factor of 20 change in receiver height produced an order of magnitude change in the single to multiple scattering ratio.

Spinhirne, J. D.↗

Monte Carlo Modeling in Elliptic Flows

A Monte Carlo method capable of predicting scalar (e.g., concentration) probability density functions (pdf's) in nonreacting and reacting elliptic flows was developed. A research combustor specifically designed to provide measurements of concentration and temperature pdf's in nonreacting and reacting flows is emphasized.

Radhakrishnan, K.↗

LANDSAT-D investigations in snow hydrology

Two tapes of the southern Sierra Nevada study area were received and the TM data are being registered to digital data. The spectral, spatial, temporal, and economic characteristics of data from LANDSAT 4 TM and MSS were compared with those of NOAA-r AVHRR data for snow cover mapping. An atmospheric radiative transfer model which accounts for both the zenith and aximuth variation in the radiative field is presented and its advantages are discussed. A Monte Carlo method for solving the atmospheric correction problem for an inhomogeneous surface is also considered.

Dozier, J.↗

LANDSAT-D investigations in snow hydrology

The atmospheric radiative transfer calculation program (ATARD) and its supporting programs (setting up atmospheric profile, making Mie tables and an exponential-sum-fitting table) were completed. More sophisticated treatment of aerosol scattering (including angular phase function or asymmetric factor) and multichannel analysis of results from ATRAD are being developed. Some progress was made on a Monte Carlo program for examining two dimensional effects, specifically a surface boundary condition that varies across a scene. The MONTE program combines ATRAD and the Monte Carlo method together to produce an atmospheric point spread function. Currently the procedure passes monochromatic tests and the results are reasonable.

Dozier, J.↗

CYBER 200 Applications Seminar

Applications suited for the CYBER 200 digital computer are discussed. Various areas of application including meteorology, algorithms, fluid dynamics, monte carlo methods, petroleum, electronic circuit simulation, biochemistry, lattice gauge theory, economics and ray tracing are discussed.

Gary, J. P.↗

Models of the hard X-ray spectrum of AM Herculis and implications for the accretion rate

Phenomenological fits to the hard X-ray spectrum of AM Hercules have failed to explain the high equivalent width (0.8 + or - 0.1 keV) of Fe K-alpha emission. The scattering and fluorescent line production in a cold or partially ionized accretion column of hard X-rays emitted at the base are investigated using the Monte Carlo method. It is shown that the Fe emission equivalent width observed in the spectrum of AM Her can be explained without resorting to an overabundance of Fe in the accreting material. For sufficient optical depth across the accretion column, equivalent widths of K-alpha emission even larger than the observed values can be obtained. The accretion rate and gravitational power can be deduced from the optical depth across the column, if the column size is known, and, together with the observed hard X-ray and polarized light luminosities, imply a lower limit for the luminosity in the UV to soft X-ray range, for which the observations give model-dependent values.

Swank, J. H.↗

A Monte Carlo comparison of the recovery of winds near upwind and downwind from the SASS-1 model function by means of the sum of squares algorithm and a maximum likelihood estimator

Backscatter measurements at upwind and crosswind are simulated for five incidence angles by means of the SASS-1 model function. The effects of communication noise and attitude errors are simulated by Monte Carlo methods, and the winds are recovered by both the Sum of Square (SOS) algorithm and a Maximum Likelihood Estimater (MLE). The SOS algorithm is shown to fail for light enough winds at all incidence angles and to fail to show areas of calm because backscatter estimates that were negative or that produced incorrect values of K sub p greater than one were discarded. The MLE performs well for all input backscatter estimates and returns calm when both are negative. The use of the SOS algorithm is shown to have introduced errors in the SASS-1 model function that, in part, cancel out the errors that result from using it, but that also cause disagreement with other data sources such as the AAFE circle flight data at light winds. Implications for future scatterometer systems are given.

Pierson, W. J., Jr.↗

A model for the evolution of on-orbit manmade debris environment

Man-made debris in low-Earth orbit (LEO) and the conduct of operations/procedures which leave debris in orbit are discussed. With continued deposition and larger vehicles and longer times on orbit for LEO operations, the probability of collisions between such vehicles and some member of the debris population becomes large. Because the collisions will occur at very large relative speeds, a small object which would not normally be considered a hazard might pose a lethal threat to an operating spacecraft. Future debris states must be deduced from an evaluation of many models using a Monte Carlo method for future deposition events. A model for the population evolution is presented and results of model calculations are discussed. Contributions to the population which may be expected to arise from on-orbit collisions and explosions are examined. Results are presented as models for future space usage as an extrapolation of usage in the past, for an era of enhanced space usage, and for an era in which antisatellite tests provide a debris contribution.

Reynolds, R. C.↗

Computer program for prediction of capture maneuver probability for an on-off reaction controlled upper stage

A FORTRAN coded computer program which computes the capture transient of a launch vehicle upper stage at the ignition and/or separation event is presented. It is for a single degree-of-freedom on-off reaction jet attitude control system. The Monte Carlo method is used to determine the statistical value of key parameters at the outcome of the event. Aerodynamic and booster induced disturbances, vehicle and control system characteristics, and initial conditions are treated as random variables. By appropriate selection of input data pitch, yaw and roll axes can be analyzed. Transient response of a single deterministic case can be computed. The program is currently set up on a CDC CYBER 175 computer system but is compatible with ANSI FORTRAN computer language. This routine has been used over the past fifteen (15) years for the SCOUT Launch Vehicle and has been run on RECOMP III, IBM 7090, IBM 360/370, CDC6600 and CDC CYBER 175 computers with little modification.

Knauber, R. N.↗

Numerical analysis of electromagnetic cascades in emulsion chambers

A new calculational scheme of the Monte Carlo method assigned for the investigation of the development of high and extremely high energy electromagnetic cascades (EMC) in the matter was elaborated. The scheme was applied to the analysis of angular and radial distributions of EMC electrons in the atmosphere. By means of this scheme the EMC development in dense medium is investigated and some preliminary data are presented on the behavior of EMC in emulsion chambers. The results of more detailed theoretical analysis of the EMC development in emulsion chambers are discussed.

Plyasheshnikov, A. V.↗

Production of high-energy gamma rays by cosmic ray interactions in the atmosphere and lunar surface

The production of gamma rays above 10 MeV by the interaction of cosmic rays in the atmosphere and the lunar surface is simulated using Monte Carlo methods. The calculation incorporates a new model of high-energy nucleon-nucleus interactions based on empirical fits to inclusive cross sections for the production of pions and nucleons. The atmospheric gamma ray flux is calculated as a function of direction, energy, and atmospheric depth. These calculations are compared with observations from balloons and from the SAS 2 satellite. Estimates of the flux of earth albedo electrons produced by cosmic ray interactions are presented. The lunar gamma ray albedo is calculated and compared with an upper limit based on SAS 2 measurements.

Morris, D. J.↗

Contribution of explosion and future collision fragments to the orbital debris environment

The time evolution of the near-earth man-made orbital debris environment modeled by numerical simulation is presented in this paper. The model starts with a data base of orbital debris objects which are tracked by the NORAD ground radar system. The current untrackable small objects are assumed to result from explosions and are predicted from data collected from a ground explosion experiment. Future collisions between earth orbiting objects are handled by the Monte Carlo method to simulate the range of collision possibilities that may occur in the real world. The collision fragmentation process between debris objects is calculated using an empirical formula derived from a laboratory spacecraft impact experiment to obtain the number versus size distribution of the newly generated debris population. The evolution of the future space debris environment is compared with the natural meteoroid background for the relative spacecraft penetration hazard.

Su, S.-Y.↗

The He2 potential at small distances

Quantum Monte Carlo methods have been used to determine the exact Born-Oppenheimer interaction energy of two helium atoms with internuclear separations between 0.5 and 1.8 A. There is reasonable agreement with potentials derived from scattering data, however the semiempirical Aziz potential is too repulsive for separation less than 1.8 A. A new potential for this region is proposed.

Ceperley, D. M.↗

Ion distribution functions in the vicinity of Comet Giacobini-Zinner

Photoionization of neutral molecules in the coma surrounding a comet produces heavy ions which contaminate and mass-load the solar wind. Cometary ion distribution functions in the vicinity of Comet Giacobini-Zinner (GZ) are calculated using a Monte Carlo method. The distribution function calculated behind the shock has both cold (approximately 2 keV) and hot (approximately 40 keV) components.

Cravens, T. E.↗

Direct simulation of typical AOTV entry flows

The direct simulation Monte Carlo method is applied to two flows that are relevant to the projected aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicle. The first is the axially symmetric flow about a 70 degree blunted cone shield with a cylindrical afterbody, and the second is the one-dimensional flow along the stagnation streamline of the first flow. The shock standoff distance for the stagnation streamline study is obtained from the full axially symmetric calculation. Advantage is then taken of the speed of the one-dimensional calculation to study the sensitivity of the stagnation point heat transfer to a number of physical variables. These include the chemical reaction rate coefficients, the surface catalycity, the electric field associated with ambipolar diffusion, and the nonequilibrium thermal radiation from the shock front.

Bird, G. A.↗