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At least 325 records · Page 18

Influence of Transport on Two-Dimensional Model Simulation: 2. Stratospheric Aircraft Perturbations: Stratospheric Aircraft Perturbations - 2

We have adopted the transport scenarios used in Part 1 to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric aircraft perturbations to transport changes in our 2-D model. Changes to the strength of the residual circulation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere and changes to the lower stratospheric K(sub zz) had similar effects in that increasing the transport rates decreased the overall stratospheric residence time and reduced the magnitude of the negative perturbation response in total ozone. Increasing the stratospheric K(sub yy) increased the residence time and enhanced the global scale negative total ozone response. However, increasing K(sub yy) along with self-consistent increases in the corresponding planetary wave drive, which leads to a stronger residual circulation, more than compensates for the K(sub yy)-effect, and results in a significantly weaker perturbation response, relative to the base case, throughout the stratosphere. We found a relatively minor model perturbation response sensitivity to the magnitude of K(sub yy) in the tropical stratosphere, and only a very small sensitivity to the magnitude of the horizontal mixing across the tropopause and to the strength of the mesospheric gravity wave drag and diffusion. These transport simulations also revealed a generally strong correlation between passive NO(sub y) accumulation and age of air throughout the stratosphere, such that faster transport rates resulted in a younger mean age and a smaller NO(y) mass accumulation. However, specific variations in K(sub yy) and mesospheric gravity wave strength exhibited very little NO(sub y)-age correlation in the lower stratosphere, similar to 3-D model simulations performed in the recent NASA "Models and Measurements" II analysis. The base model transport, which gives the most favorable overall comparison with inert tracer observations, simulated a global/annual mean total ozone response of -0.59%, with only a slightly larger response in the northern compared to the southern hemisphere. For transport scenarios which gave tracer simulations within some agreement with measurements, the annual/globally averaged total ozone response ranged from -0.45% to -0.70%. Our previous 1995 model exhibited overly fast transport rates, resulting in a global/annually averaged perturbation total ozone response of -0.25%, which is significantly weaker compared to the 1999 model. This illustrates how transport deficiencies can bias model simulations of stratospheric aircraft.

Fleming, Eric L.↗

Performance Analysis of Transposition Models Simulating Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces: Preprint

Transposition models are widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined photovoltaic (PV) panels. These transposition models have been developed using various assumptions about the distribution of the diffuse radiation, and most of the parameterizations in these models have been developed using hourly ground data sets. Numerous studies have compared the performance of transposition models, but this paper aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in the state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty using high-resolution ground measurements in the plane of array. Our results suggest that the amount of aerosol optical depth can affect the accuracy of isotropic models. The choice of empirical coefficients and the use of decomposition models can both result in uncertainty in the output from the transposition models. It is expected that the results of this study will ultimately lead to improvements of the parameterizations as well as the development of improved physical models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An ultrahigh-resolution E3SM land model simulation framework and its first application to the Seward Peninsula in Alaska

The availability of supercomputers and state-of-science datasets has made it possible to conduct large-scale land simulations at an ultrahigh-resolution. This study reported a computational framework for land surface simulation using the E3SM land model (ELM) at an unprecedented resolution (1 km x 1 km gridcell). The ultrahigh-resolution ELM (uELM) simulation framework includes three parts: (1) high-resolution atmospheric forcing and surface properties dataset generation, (2) massive gridcell-based simulation, and (3) large-scale simulation results analysis. Additionally, we implemented the uELM simulation framework and completed the first 1 km x 1 km terrestrial ecosystem simulation (from 1850 to 2014) over the Seward Peninsula in Alaska (78,000 km 2 ). The experiment contained two phases: a spin-up simulation and a transient simulation, and required five weeks of calculations using 320 cores in a 44-node Linux HPC computer. It created approximately 1.3 TB of data from the transient simulation alone (1850 - present). We selected sample results (monthly and daily simulation outputs) to illustrate the temporal and spatial variations of several variables in high-latitude Arctic ecosystems’ water, energy, and carbon cycles. At last, we summarized the lessons learned and proposed new developments for full-scale uELM simulations over the entire North American continent (approximately 22,000,000 km 2 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NREL Stratus - Enabling Workflows to Fuse Data Streams, Modeling, Simulation, and Machine Learning

Integrating cloud services into advanced computing facilities provides significant new capabilities over focusing solely on traditional high performance computing (HPC) workloads. This brings complementary capabilities as well as enabling new focused roles for HPC. They are especially potent for workflows that fuse data streams, modeling and simulation ('modsim') and machine learning. A key challenge to adopting a hybrid edge-cloud-HPC model is to align optimal capability, data, and user intent on the right resources for each step in a workflow.?The NREL Stratus service provides a basis for this: Stratus layers capabilities needed to make?cloud services accessible to a lab-based scientific community on commercial offerings, and; currently supports upwards of 200 projects ranging from IOT integration to traditional modeling and simulation. This provides a real-world inventory of scientific workflow elements. A growing knowledge base enables placing these elements appropriately between the edge, cloud, and traditional HPC. This paper outlines a vision via reference architecture and the application of that architecture in a typical workflow highlighting multiple components: sensor data intake, cleaning and transforming (edge/cloud suitable); generation of synthetic data through modsim, computationally heavy ML training and hyperparameter optimization (HPC suitable), and; inference and deployment (cloud ideal). Every step in such a workflow involves a cost-benefit analysis regarding the data movement, computational efficiency, availability, latency, and resource capabilities. The reference architecture and examples outlined allow for understanding new opportunities in the context of emerging workflows that combine IOT, cloud, and HPC to bolster scientific productivity.

AI↗

28 NREL Stratus - Enabling Workflows to Fuse Data Streams, Modeling, Simulation, and Machine Learning: Preprint

Integrating cloud services into advanced computing facilities provides significant new capabilities over focusing solely on traditional high performance computing (HPC) workloads. This brings complementary capabilities as well as enabling new focused roles for HPC. They are especially potent for workflows that fuse data streams, modeling and simulation ('modsim') and machine learning. A key challenge to adopting a hybrid edge-cloud-HPC model is to align optimal capability, data, and user intent on the right resources for each step in a workflow.?The NREL Stratus service provides a basis for this: Stratus layers capabilities needed to make?cloud services accessible to a lab-based scientific community on commercial offerings, and; currently supports upwards of 200 projects ranging from IOT integration to traditional modeling and simulation. This provides a real-world inventory of scientific workflow elements. A growing knowledge base enables placing these elements appropriately between the edge, cloud, and traditional HPC. This paper outlines a vision via reference architecture and the application of that architecture in a typical workflow highlighting multiple components: sensor data intake, cleaning and transforming (edge/cloud suitable); generation of synthetic data through modsim, computationally heavy ML training and hyperparameter optimization (HPC suitable), and; inference and deployment (cloud ideal). Every step in such a workflow involves a cost-benefit analysis regarding the data movement, computational efficiency, availability, latency, and resource capabilities. The reference architecture and examples outlined allow for understanding new opportunities in the context of emerging workflows that combine IOT, cloud, and HPC to bolster scientific productivity.

AI↗

Modeling, Simulation and Analysis of Public Key Infrastructure

Security is an essential part of network communication. The advances in cryptography have provided solutions to many of the network security requirements. Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) is the foundation of the cryptography applications. The main objective of this research is to design a model to simulate a reliable, scalable, manageable, and high-performance public key infrastructure. We build a model to simulate the NASA public key infrastructure by using SimProcess and MatLab Software. The simulation is from top level all the way down to the computation needed for encryption, decryption, digital signature, and secure web server. The application of secure web server could be utilized in wireless communications. The results of the simulation are analyzed and confirmed by using queueing theory.

Liu, Yuan-Kwei↗

Process-model Simulations of Cloud Albedo Enhancement by Aerosols in the Arctic

A cloud-resolving model is used to simulate the effectiveness of Arctic marine cloud brightening via injection of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). An updated cloud microphysical scheme is employed, with prognostic CCN and cloud particle numbers in both liquid and mixed-phase marine low clouds. Injection of CCN into the marine boundary layer can delay the collapse of the boundary layer and increase low-cloud albedo. Because nearly all of the albedo effects are in the liquid phase due to the removal of ice water by snowfall when ice processes are involved, albedo increases are stronger for pure liquid clouds than mixed-phase clouds. Liquid precipitation can be suppressed by CCN injection, whereas ice precipitation (snow) is affected less; thus the effectiveness of brightening mixed-phase clouds is lower than for liquid-only clouds. CCN injection into a clean regime results in a greater albedo increase than injection into a polluted regime, consistent with current knowledge about aerosol-cloud interactions. Unlike previous studies investigating warm clouds, dynamical changes in circulation due to precipitation changes are small.

aerosols↗

Analysis of Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations for Scale Dependence of Convective Momentum Transport

Abstract We use 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of two mesoscale convective systems at midlatitudes and a simple statistical ensemble method to diagnose the scale dependency of convective momentum transport (CMT) and CMT-related properties and evaluate a parameterization scheme for the convection-induced pressure gradient (CIPG) developed by Gregory et al. Gregory et al. relate CIPG to a constant coefficient multiplied by mass flux and vertical mean wind shear. CRM results show that mass fluxes and CMT exhibit strong scale dependency in temporal evolution and vertical structure. The upgradient–downgradient CMT characteristics for updrafts are generally similar between small and large grid spacings, which is consistent with previous understanding, but they can be different for downdrafts across wide-ranging grid spacings. For the small to medium grid spacings (4–64 km), Gregory et al. reproduce some aspects of CIPG scale dependency except for underestimating the variations of CIPG as grid spacing decreases. However, for large grid spacings (128–512 km), Gregory et al. might even less adequately parameterize CIPG because it omits the contribution from either the nonlinear-shear or the buoyancy forcings. Further diagnosis of CRM results suggests that inclusion of nonlinear-shear forcing in Gregory et al. is needed for the large grid spacings. For the small to median grid spacings, a modified Gregory et al. with the three-updraft approach help better capture the variations of CIPG as grid spacing decreases compared to the single updraft approach. Further, the optimal coefficients used in Gregory et al. seem insensitive to grid spacings, but they might be different for updrafts and downdrafts, for different MCS types, and for zonal and meridional components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Simulations of PM 2.5 and its Components Over China

Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulate various components of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) as major climate forcers. Yet the model performance for PM 2.5 components remains little evaluated due in part to a lack of observational data. Here, we evaluate near-surface concentrations of PM 2.5 and its five main components over China as simulated by 14 CMIP6 models, including organic carbon (OC; available in 14 models), black carbon (BC; 14 models), sulfate (14 models), nitrate (4 models), and ammonium (5 models). For this purpose, we collect observational data between 2000 and 2014 from a satellite-based dataset for total PM2.5 and from 2469 measurement records in the literature for PM 2.5 components. Seven models output total PM 2.5 concentrations, and they all underestimate the observed total PM 2.5 over eastern China, with GFDL-ESM4 (−1.5 %) and MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM (−1.1 %) exhibiting the smallest biases averaged over the whole country. The other seven models, for which we recalculate total PM 2.5 from the available component output, underestimate the total PM 2.5 concentrations partly because of the missing model representations of nitrate and ammonium. Concentrations of the five individual components are underestimated in almost all models, except that sulfate is overestimated in MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM by 12.6 % and in MRI-ESM2-0 by 24.5 %. The underestimation is the largest for OC (by −71.2 % to −37.8 % across the 14 models) and the smallest for BC (−47.9 % to −12.1 %). The multi-model mean (MMM) reproduces the observed spatial pattern for OC (R = 0.51), sulfate (R = 0.57), nitrate (R = 0.70) and ammonium (R = 0.74) fairly well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC (R = 0.39). The varying performances of ESMs on total PM 2.5 and its components have important implications for the modeled magnitude and spatial pattern of aerosol radiative forcing.

CMIP6↗

Coupled Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport/Weather Forecast and Research/Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model: Simulations of Tower-Based and Airborne CO2 Measurements - Part II

This paper evaluates simulations of atmospheric CO2 measured in 2004 at continental surface and airborne receptors, intended to test the capability to use data with high temporal and spatial resolution for analyses of carbon sources and sinks at regional and continental scales. The simulations were performed using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model, and linked to surface fluxes from the satellite-driven Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The simulations provide detailed representations of hourly CO2 tower data and reproduce the shapes of airborne vertical profiles with high fidelity. WRF meteorology gives superior model performance compared with standard meteorological products, and the impact of including WRF convective mass fluxes in the STILT trajectory calculations is significant in individual cases. Important biases in the simulation are associated with the nighttime CO2 build-up and subsequent morning transition to convective conditions, and with errors in the advected lateral boundary condition. Comparison of STILT simulations driven by the WRF model against those driven by the Brazilian variant of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) shows that model-to-model differences are smaller than between an individual transport model and observations, pointing to systematic errors in the simulated transport. Future developments in the WRF model s data assimilation capabilities, basic research into the fundamental aspects of trajectory calculations, and intercomparison studies involving other transport models, are possible venues for reducing these errors. Overall, the STILT/WRF/VPRM offers a powerful tool for continental and regional scale carbon flux estimates.

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz↗

Precipitation processes developed during TOGA COARE (1992), GATE (1974), SCSMEX (1998), and KWAJEX (1999): 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulation

Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NOAA GFDL, the U.K. Met. Office, Colorado State University and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. An improved 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was recently used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (september 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (May 18-26, June 2-11, 1998) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 by 512 km domain and 41 vertical layers. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the differences and similarities in the simulated precipitation processes and their associated surface and water energy budgets in TOGA COARE, GATE, KWAJEX, and SCSMEX, and (2) to asses the impact of microphysics, radiation budget and surface fluxes on the organization of convection in tropics.

Tao, W.-K.↗

The formulation of simulation models of aeronautical systems

Recent developments in formula-manipulation compilers have led to a significant reduction in the time spent in formulating models of complex multi-degrees-of-freedom dynamical systems. MACSYMA, a computer system that can be used to perform symbolic manipulations in an interactive mode, is applied to the problem of formulating models of aeronautical systems for simulation studies. An example demonstrates that once the procedure is established, the formulation and modification of the models can be reduced to a series of routine computer operations.

Howard, J. C.↗

Open-Source Integrated Design-Analysis Environment for Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling & Simulation Phase I Final Report

Our proposal described an approach for addressing the barriers of advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) adoption by the nuclear energy industry. This will be achieved by developing a state-of-the-art, open-source integrated design-analysis environment (IDAE) to work on a range of nuclear energy applications, while leveraging best-in-class software created through millions of investment dollars from the Department of Energy (DOE) Office for Nuclear Energy (NE) and from several other funding agencies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Effects of cumulus entrainment and multiple cloud types on a January global climate model simulation

An improved version of the GISS Model II cumulus parameterization designed for long-term climate integrations is used to study the effects of entrainment and multiple cloud types on the January climate simulation. Instead of prescribing convective mass as a fixed fraction of the cloud base grid-box mass, it is calculated based on the closure assumption that the cumulus convection restores the atmosphere to a neutral moist convective state at cloud base. This change alone significantly improves the distribution of precipitation, convective mass exchanges, and frequencies in the January climate. The vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere exhibits quasi-equilibrium behavior when this closure is used, even though there is no explicit constraint applied above cloud base.

Yao, Mao-Sung↗

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

Regional model simulation↗

Comparison of Cloud Resolving Model Simulations to Remote Sensing Data

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the ability of a cloud-resolving model (CRM) to simulate the dynamical, radiative, and microphysical properties of deep convective cloud objects identified using CERES (Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform, for many cases. A deep convective cloud object is a contiguous region that is composed of satellite footprints that fulfill the following selection criteria: 100% cloud fraction, cloud optical depth > 10, and a cloud top height of at least 10 km. Selection criteria have also been formed for different types of boundary-layer clouds, as described in Xu et al. (2005). The purpose of the cloud object approach is to identify specific areas of where the cloud properties simulated by the CRM systematically differ from the observed cloud properties. Where these systematic differences exist, concrete steps can be made to improve the CRM s simulation of an entire class of clouds, rather than by tuning the model to correctly simulate a single case study, as is often done. Additional information regarding detailed approaches and findings are presented.

Randall, David A.↗

Simulation Modeling of an Earth Entry System and Solar Radiation Pressure Module Development

Several trajectory simulation tools are used to model different phases of the Approach, Entry, Descent and Landing (AEDL) phase of NASA’s Mars Sample Return Campaign. Working towards a single simulation tool that models all AEDL phases, this project utilizes Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II to simulate the 72-hour exoatmospheric phase of AEDL up till the point of Earth atmospheric entry. This involves developing a new feature forPOST2 that captures the forces and moments caused by solar radiation pressure(SRP). Generalizing the vehicle geometry as a combination of primitive shapes, a generalized SRP module was created and implemented into POST2. Trajectory solutions produced by POST2 were then successfully compared against independent solutions produced by the trajectory tool 42.

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II↗

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to- model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry.

humidity↗