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DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Weak-field magnetization of superconducting Y1Ba2Cu3O(x) - Relationship to microstructure

The granular magnetization model of Finnemore et al. (1987) has been tested on a well-characterized sample of Y1Ba2Cu3Ox. The temperature dependence of the magnetic susceptibility is in excellent agreement with the model. In addition, the grain size deduced from the magnetization data (1-2 microns) is in reasonable agreement with direct scanning-electron-microscopy measurements of the microstructure.

Farrell, D. E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

State of the art, gaps, and prospects in fusion materials theory and modelling

Advancing the theory and simulation of materials for fusion applications remains a key component of global roadmaps aimed at delivering much-needed fusion power. Especially as the drive for commercial application increases, prototypes must be designed against radiation damage before the relevant experimental data can be collected and cost reductions that are possible by testing materials in silico become even more important. Here, we summarise the state of the art as it emerged during the 7 th Fusion Materials Theory & Modelling Workshop that took place in 2024, with the aim to highlight present gaps and future directions for the fusion materials modelling community. Of particular interest were the effects of transmutations, chemical complexity with the development of novel alloys and interatomic potentials, advancements in modelling high-dose microstructures, comparison with experimental data and multiscale models for structural assessment relying on high-performance computing and virtual reality.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic nonlinear analysis of unidirectional fiber composites using image-based microstructural uncertainty quantification

Here, we present a data-driven nonlinear uncertainty quantification and propagation framework to study the microstructure-induced stochastic performance of unidirectional (UD) carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites. The proposed approach integrates (1) microscopic image characterization, (2) stochastic microstructure reconstruction, and (3) efficient multiscale finite element simulations enabled by self-consistent clustering (SCA) analysis. To model the complex microstructural variability, the proposed UQ methods take the non-Gaussian uncertainty sources into account through a distribution-free sampling approach leveraging nonparametric and asymptotic statistical tools. A hierarchical conditional sampling strategy enables the simultaneous sampling of multiple sources of uncertainties. Our approach provides insights into the impact of microstructural variabilities, which are shown to have an increasing impact on the nonlinear responses of UD CFRP parts under progressive compression loading and ultimately on the failure rate over time. We discover that before CFRP parts start to fail, a characteristic time period emerges with distinctive uncertainty distributions specific to the microstructure variability and the probability of failure. Identifying the failure time period is crucial to the reliability prediction, which is an essential component of CFRP design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1988

Concepts for interrelating ultrasonic attenuation, microstructure, and fracture toughness in polycrystalline solids

Conceptual models are advanced for explaining and predicting empirical correlations found between ultrasonic measurements and fracture toughness of polycrystalline solids. The models lead to insights concerning microstructural factors governing fracture processes and associated stress wave interactions. Analysis of the empirical correlations suggested by the models indicate that, in addition to grain size and shape, grain boundary reflections, elastic anisotropy, and dislocation damping are factors that underlie both fracture toughness and ultrasonic attenuation. One outcome is that ultrasonic attenuation can predict the size of crack blunting or process zones that develop in the vicinity of active cracks in metals. This forms a basis for ultrasonic ranking according to variations in fracture toughness.

Vary, A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph neural networks for mechanical property prediction of 2D fiber composites

This work investigates the ability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to homogenize 2D fiber composite microstructures. We use different inhomogeneity and anisotropy indices to motivate and show that the Volume Elements (VEs) used in ML methods should ideally be far from their Representative Volume Element (RVE) size limit and, consequently, are notably anisotropic. Hence, training only the isotropic limit properties may not be acceptable. Another aspect is the need to normalize elastic stiffness values for ML, especially when high elastic contrast ratios are encountered between composite phases or in the material set. We introduce a normalization technique based on the mean-field method (MFM) to handle such high contrast ratios and train for the entire stiffness tensor. We show that the proposed GNN approaches exhibit high accuracy and efficiency compared to traditional methods and convolutional neural networks, utilizing unstructured graphs constructed from microstructure topology. Our model successfully predicts the stiffness tensor, peak strength under bulk damage, and brittle fracture initiation strength across diverse microstructure configurations while maintaining high accuracy even for extreme material contrasts and volume fractions. We also present a method to improve prediction accuracy for small dataset sizes using Voronoi partitioning.

Brittle strength↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phase field simulation of anode microstructure evolution of solid oxide fuel cell through Ni(OH) 2 diffusion

Microstructure evolution in a solid oxide fuel cell anode is strongly affected by operating condition. The detailed mesoscale evolution mechanism under operating condition is still under debate. Here we develop a phase-field model to simulate microstructure evolution through formation and diffusion of gaseous Ni(OH)2. We studied the coarsening kinetics and redistribution of Ni under different steam distributions and compare it to that under pure hydrogen condition. Overall, the results suggest that although the presence of a steady gradient of steam leads to redistribution of Ni, Ni(OH) 2 formation and diffusion do not significantly change the Ni coarsening rate under strictly humid conditions, contrary to commonly reported hypotheses. It is concluded that competing mechanisms other than Ni(OH) 2 diffusion must be responsible for the experimentally observed Ni redistribution and enhanced coarsening under humid conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unpacking model inadequacy: The quantification of silver release from TRISO fuel by considering empirical and mechanistic approaches

Increasing adoption of the proposed tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel for both advanced and existing reactors makes it critical to assess and address any uncertainties and inadequacies of TRISO fission product release models. Model inadequacy stems from simplifications made to the computational model when compared to the experiments. The modeling and simulation efforts conducted using the BISON fuel performance code, along with the experimental campaigns carried out under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, afford a unique opportunity to conduct a rigorous modeling inadequacy assessment within the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. Here, this study compares the standard Bayesian framework against the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly represents modeling inadequacy, in regard to UQ for TRISO silver release models. For this purpose, both the traditional Arrhenius equation fitted to experimental data and the more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model, which considers microstructure information, are independently considered. Applying the inverse UQ process on the AGR-2 and -3/4 datasets revealed modeling inadequacy to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Experimental noise uncertainty is also significant; however, model parameter uncertainty can be considered negligible. Interestingly, both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model demonstrated similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For the forward predictive UQ, the KOH framework improved both the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties in comparison to the standard Bayesian framework. This is true for both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model. In comparing these modeling approaches, both demonstrated similar performance at the engineering scale, while the LLS-informed model expectedly outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These conclusions highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for modeling inadequacy in the UQ process, and reinforce the need for continuous refinement of physics-based models in order to address the modeling inadequacy.

Advanced reactors↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Framework to Predict Melting Dynamics at Microstructural Defects in TNT-HMX High Explosive Composites

Many high explosive (HE) formulations are composite materials whose microstructure is understood to impact functional characteristics. Interfaces are known to mediate the formation of hot spots that control their safety and initiation. Here, to study such processes at molecular scales, we developed all-atom force fields (FFs) for Octol, a prototypical HE formulation comprised of TNT (2,4,6-trinitrotoluene) and HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine). We extended a FF for TNT and recasted it in a form that can be readily combined with a well-established FF for HMX. The resulting FF was extensively validated against experimental results and density functional theory calculations. We applied the new combined TNT-HMX FF to predict and rank surface and interface energies, which indicate that there is an energetic driver for coarsening of microstructural grains in TNT-HMX composites. Finally, we assess the impact of several microstructural environments on the dynamic melting of TNT crystal under ultrafast thermal loading. We find that both free surfaces and planar material interfaces are effective nucleation points for TNT melting. However, MD simulations show that TNT crystal is prone to superheating by at least 50 K on subnanosecond time scales and that the degree of superheating is inversely correlated with surface and interface energy. The modeling framework presented here will enable future studies on hot spot formation processes in accident scenarios that are governed by strong coupling between microstructural interfaces, material mechanics, momentum and energy transport, phase transitions, and chemistry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Model Integration with MOOSE XFEM for Creep Crack Growth

Ferritic-martensitic steels are key structural materials for advanced reactors but experience time-dependent deformation and damage under prolonged high temperature and irradiation, leading to creep-driven crack initiation and growth. High-fidelity models—crystal plasticity with irradiation mechanisms, phase-field for microstructural evolution, and continuum-damage viscoplasticity—capture the underlying physics but are too computationally intensive for broad design-space exploration and uncertainty quantification. This milestone advances a scalable alternative by integrating a microstructure-sensitive surrogate creep model into the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework and extending it to fracture via the extended finite element method (XFEM). The surrogate model, developed with collaborators at Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories, maps relevant microstructural descriptors to the viscoplastic response of HT9. We embed this surrogate within a coupled deformation-damage workflow in MOOSE/XFEM to simulate creep-driven crack initiation and propagation. Implementation enhancements include updates to the material interface, a plastic correction phase involving microstructure evolution, and fracture criteria to ensure numerical robustness and compatibility with the surrogate structure. Demonstrations on canonical creep benchmarks spanning uniaxial and multiaxial states show that the surrogate reproduces key trends of high-fidelity models while substantially reducing computational cost. The resulting capability bridges physics fidelity and performance, providing a practical path to a predictive, microstructure-aware assessment of creep and fracture in reactor materials.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of the influence of strain magnitude and strain path on the resulting microstructure and post-forming mechanical behavior of RA containing high formability steels

In third generation advanced high strength steels (AHSS) there is considerable potential to alter the transformation characteristics through variation of process parameters and through changes in chemical composition. This proposal aims to utilize this known phenomenon to develop microstructure-based transformation models to predict austenite stability as a function of chemical composition, strain level, deformation mode. The ultimate intent is to predict microstructure and performance during room temperature forming to produce automotive structural components with superior strength and failure resistance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the Representativity of Electrode Microstructure Parameters and Their Electrochemical Response for Lithium Ion Batteries

Lithium-ion battery electrochemical models require an accurate description of the electrodes microstructures to be predictive that can be achieved through nanoscale imaging. Such observations are however limited by their field of view (FOV), as they provide only a subset of the whole electrode volume that does not necessarily represent the whole electrode microstructure heterogeneity, and therefore can bias the microstructure analysis. A microstructure scale electrochemical model was used to investigate lithium plating onset, material non-uniform utilization, and in-plane heterogeneities for an NMC-graphite full cell. To evaluate the representativeness, and thus relevance, of these model predictions, a coupled representativity analysis has been performed on the microstructure parameters and, in a novel way, on the full cell electrochemical response. Electrode microstructure parameters representativeness has been first quantified using the representative volume element (RVE) methodology. The RVE major flaw is that ultimately it can only conclude if a FOV contains representative subvolumes of the FOV, but not if the FOV itself is representative of the electrode volume. Analysis can conclude negatively ('FOV is not representative'), but not positively ('FOV is representative'). One major contribution of this work was to quantify the convergence of the RVE size with the FOV, to actually investigate the FOV representativeness and thus partly remedy this intrinsic limitation. The analysis determined that performing a standard RVE calculation, without exploring its FOV convergence, is likely to strongly underestimate the actual RVE size. The new RVE methodology has been automated in the NREL open-source Microstructure Analysis Toolbox (MATBOX) and is available to the battery community. Representativeness of microstructure parameters is however only an intermediate step, as the end-results of an electrochemical model are performances predictions. Indeed, what is the practical consequence of a given deviation for a microstructure parameter? The microstructure parameter deviation propagations to the 3D microstructure scale electrochemical response have been then quantified for different charge rates. This defines a threshold for the microstructure parameters FOV for a desired maximum deviation of the electrochemical response. Such deviation propagation analysis is analogous to error propagation analysis and is necessary to determine the relevance of microstructure scale model predictions for macroscale predictions. Electrochemical model shows cell representative section areas are increasing with C-rate, due to higher in-plane heterogeneities, indicating larger FOVs are required specifically for fast charge modeling. Therefore, we introduced the novel concept of electrochemical RVE (eRVE) that is a function of the operating conditions (thus defined as a dynamic RVE), with an increasing dependence with the C-rate. Representativity analysis of the investigated cell determined a FOV of 144.4 x 54.4 m2 is large enough to establish a convergence on the representative section areas for low to intermediate C-rate (=2.5C), but not large enough to conclude for higher rates. This work aims to emphasize the importance of representativity analysis for LIB electrode microstructures, as it is required to estimate the error, and thus the relevance, of microstructure parameters intended to be used in macroscale models. The methodology and results can help researchers to select the relevant imaging and associated FOV required to provide accurate enough microstructure parameters.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

ICME for Creep of Ni-Base Superalloys in Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Steam Turbines

The goal of this project contains three major aspects: (1) critical assessment of existing experimental data, (2) critical assessment of existing modeling capabilities and (3) development of new modeling capabilities that are critical but currently missing in predicting long-term creep behavior of Ni-base superalloys used in advanced ultra- supercritical (A-USC) steam turbines for coal-fired power plants. The project uses advanced materials informatics to datamine the experimental data, uncertainty quantification tools to rigorously assess existing creep-life models, and integration of phase-field and FFT-based crystal plasticity to develop a multi-scale, physics-based, microstructure-sensitive creep model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tailoring ductile-phase toughened tungsten hierarchical microstructures for plasma-facing materials

Biological materials, such as bones, nacre, etc., have been found to show attractive and unique combinations of stiffness, strength and fracture toughness. Research has been conducted in various engineering areas to mimic the naturally hierarchical microstructures or nanostructures of these materials to produce materials with optimum stiffness, high strength and fracture toughness for their intended structural applications. In the same objective, this work applies a multiscale microstructural approach recently developed to investigate the deformation and fracture behavior of ductile phase toughened tungsten (W) materials such as tungsten-nickel/iron (W-Ni/Fe) composites that possess lamellar-like and hierarchical “brick-and-mortar” (BAM) microstructures. First, the approach is used to simulate tensile loading of W-Ni/Fe specimens cut out from hot-rolled W-Ni/Fe plates which possess lamellar-like microstructures. The finite element model of the gage section of the specimen consists of a W-Ni/Fe dual-phase microstructural domain in which the constitutive behaviors of W and Ni/Fe phases are described by an elastic-plastic damage model. The predicted material stress-strain response and crack pattern development as a function of loading are then compared to the corresponding experimental results to determine the constitutive model parameters for W and Ni/Fe. Subsequently, the model parameters are used to analyze W-Ni/Fe BAM microstructures that are artificially created to investigate the effects of microstructural features and morphologies on the composite stress-strain response, damage, and fracture patterns. The modeling shows that regular BAM microstructures that experience bridging mechanism combined with crack penetration across W-phase regions exhibit significantly higher strengths than the rather random lamellar-like microstructures. More significantly, however adjusting the brick’s length-to-height ratio, the BAM microstructure can be designed to allow a more distributed damage zone which leads to increased strength, ductility and fracture energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

SAM-I-Am: Semantic boosting for zero-shot atomic-scale electron micrograph segmentation

Image segmentation is a critical enabler for tasks ranging from medical diagnostics to autonomous driving. However, the correct segmentation semantics — where are boundaries located? what segments are logically similar? — change depending on the domain, such that state-of-the-art foundation models can generate meaningless and incorrect results. Moreover, in certain domains, fine-tuning and retraining techniques are infeasible: obtaining labels is costly and time-consuming; domain images (micrographs) can be exponentially diverse; and data sharing (for third-party retraining) is restricted. To enable rapid adaptation of the best segmentation technology, we propose the concept of semantic boosting: given a zero-shot foundation model, guide its segmentation and adjust results to match domain expectations. Here, we apply semantic boosting to the Segment Anything Model (SAM) to obtain microstructure segmentation for transmission electron microscopy. Our booster, SAM-I-Am, serves as a post-processing engine that extracts geometric and textural features of various intermediate masks to perform mask removal and mask merging operations. We demonstrate a zero-shot performance increase of (absolute) +21.35%, +12.6%, +5.27% in mean IoU, and a -9.91%, -18.42%, -4.06% drop in mean false positive masks across images of three difficulty classes over vanilla SAM (ViT-L).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Creep and Creep Fracture Modeling with Surrogate Creep Models and the Extended Finite Element Method

Alloy components in advanced nuclear reactors will be subjected to environmental conditions that could include high temperatures, irradiation, and exposure to corrosive salts. These conditions could lead to the formation of crack-like defects, which could grow over time in a mechanism known as creep crack growth (CCG). Predicting growth rates of these defects is important for assessing the safe operating life of advanced reactors. This project documents progress toward developing and testing next-generation data-driven constitutive models for deformation creep. It also documents the application of the extended finite element method in conjunction with surrogate creep models to predict CCG parameters under a variety of conditions. These important incremental developments contribute to the longer-term objective of developing microstructure-aware constitutive models that can be used for predicting creep deformation and CCG at the component scale with improved accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Establishing the relationship between manufacturing and component performance in stretch formed thermoplastic composites

Flexible manufacturing methods are needed to reduce the cost of using advanced composites in structural applications. One method that allows for this is the stretch forming of long discontinuous fiber materials with thermoplastic matrices. In order to exploit this flexibility in an economical way, a thorough understanding of the relationship between manufacturing and component performance must be developed. This paper reviews some of the recent work geared toward establishing this understanding. Micromechanics models have been developed to predict the formability of the material during processing. The latest improvement of these models includes the viscoelastic nature of the matrix and comparison with experimental data. A finite element scheme is described which can be used to model the forming process. This model uses equivalent anisotropic viscosities from the micromechanics models and predicts the microstructure in the formed part. In addition, structural models have been built to account for the material property gradients that can result from the manufacturing procedures. Recent developments in this area include the analysis of stress concentrations and a failure model each accounting for the heterogeneous material fields.

Santare, Michael H.↗