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DOE OSTI2021

Protist diversity and community complexity in the rhizosphere of switchgrass are dynamic as plants develop

Abstract Background Despite their widespread distribution and ecological importance, protists remain one of the least understood components of the soil and rhizosphere microbiome. Knowledge of the roles that protists play in stimulating organic matter decomposition and shaping microbiome dynamics continues to grow, but there remains a need to understand the extent to which biological and environmental factors mediate protist community assembly and dynamics. We hypothesize that protists communities are filtered by the influence of plants on their rhizosphere biological and physicochemical environment, resulting in patterns of protist diversity and composition that mirror previously observed diversity and successional dynamics in rhizosphere bacterial communities. Results We analyzed protist communities associated with the rhizosphere and bulk soil of switchgrass (SG) plants ( Panicum virgatum ) at different phenological stages, grown in two marginal soils as part of a large-scale field experiment. Our results reveal that the diversity of protists is lower in rhizosphere than bulk soils, and that temporal variations depend on soil properties but are less pronounced in rhizosphere soil. Patterns of significantly prevalent protists groups in the rhizosphere suggest that most protists play varied ecological roles across plant growth stages and that some plant pathogenic protists and protists with omnivorous diets reoccur over time in the rhizosphere. We found that protist co-occurrence network dynamics are more complex in the rhizosphere compared to bulk soil. A phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis showed that protists’ community assembly in our study sites is mainly controlled by homogenous selection and dispersal limitation, with stronger selection in rhizosphere than bulk soil as SG grew and senesced. Conclusions We demonstrate that environmental filtering is a dominant determinant of overall protist community properties and that at the rhizosphere level, plant control on the physical and biological environment is a critical driver of protist community composition and dynamics. Since protists are key contributors to plant nutrient availability and bacterial community composition and abundance, mapping and understanding their patterns in rhizosphere soil is foundational to understanding the ecology of the root-microbe-soil system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quaternary slip rates and most recent surface rupture of the Bitterroot fault, western Montana

The Bitterroot fault is a ~100-km-long Quaternary active normal fault that bounds the eastern margin of the north–south-trending Bitterroot Mountains and accommodates extension near the Intermountain Seismic Belt. Here, new detailed mapping using high-resolution topographic data derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) along the southern Bitterroot Range documents multiple generations of fault scarps in Holocene–Pleistocene deposits with vertical off sets that increase in magnitude with age. Fault mapping indicates a complex fault geometry characterized by an en echelon pattern of discontinuous segments of 41–78° east-dipping normal faults that appear to cut the older Eocene detachment fault, and locally 70–88° west-dipping antithetic normal faults. 10 Be cosmogenic exposure dating provides in situ age control for 32 surface boulders (>1 m) sampled in glacial deposits. Near Como Dam, two Pinedale-age glacial moraine sequences yield peak age distributions of 15.0 ± 0.4 ka and 16.4 ± 0.6 ka as apparent exposure ages (e = 0), and 15.4 ± 0.4 ka and 16.8 ± 0.6 ka based on the maximum allowed boulder surface erosion rate (e = 2 mm/ka). Vertical separation of 3.5 ± 0.2 m across the ~16–17 ka glacial moraine off set by the Bitterroot fault scarp yields a fault slip rate of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr. Glacial Lake Missoula highstand shorelines, inset into the ~15 ka glacial moraine and vertically off set 4.6 ± 1.6 m by an antithetic strand of the Bitterroot fault, yield fault slip rates of 0.2–0.5 mm/yr that overlap with fault slip rates on the main strand near Lake Como (0.2–0.3 mm/yr). At the Ward Creek fan located ~15 km to the north of Lake Como, two glacial debris fan sequences yield peak age distributions of 16.6 ± 0.4 ka and 62.8 ± 1.7 ka (e = 0), and 17.0 ± 0.4 ka and 69.9 ± 2.2 ka (e = 2 mm/ka). Vertical separations of 2.4 ± 0.3 m and 4.5 ± 0.2 m on the ~17 ka and ~63–70 ka fan surfaces off set by the Bitterroot fault yield fault slip rates of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr and 0.1 mm/yr, respectively. Our results indicate broadly consistent fault slip rates for the main fault segments at Lake Como (0.2–0.3 mm/yr) and the Ward Creek fan (0.1–0.3 mm/yr) with an along-strike range of 0.1–0.3 mm/yr for the southern Bitterroot fault. Fault scaling relations and evidence of multiple late Quaternary fault surface ruptures suggest the Bitterroot fault could produce a Mw ~7.2 earthquake. Structural model constraints and our slip rate results indicate both high-angle or low-angle fault geometries are possible at depth. A seismogenic low-angle fault model could generate a larger earthquake of Mw >7.2. Earthquake history is unknown for the Bitterroot fault, but fault scarps in young glacial deposits demonstrate its seismogenic potential. Data from this study suggest seismic hazards from the Bitterroot fault may pose a high level of risk to the Missoula metropolitan area, the State’s second most populous region, and major infrastructures across the Missoula and Bitterroot Valleys.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Redshift Calibration of the MagLim++ Lens Sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3x2pt cosmology analysis. The 3x2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection (Balrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O($10^8$) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the $n(z)$ uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. This analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

Giannini, G. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗

DOE OSTI2022

Unusual electronic transport in (1 - x )Cu 2 Se-( x )CuInSe 2 hierarchical composites

The ability to control the relative density of electronic point defects as well as their energy distribution in semiconductors could afford a systematic modulation of their electronic, optical, and optoelectronic properties. Using a model binary hybrid system Cu 2 Se–CuInSe 2 , we have investigated the correlation between phase composition, microstructure, and electronic transport behavior in the synthesized composites. We found that both Cu 2 Se and CuInSe 2 phases coexist at multiple length scales, ranging from sub-ten nanometer to several micrometers, leading to the formation of a hybrid hierarchical microstructure. Astonishingly, the electronic phase diagram of the (1 - x)Cu 2 Se–(x)CuInSe 2 (15% ≤ x ≤ 100%) hierarchical composites remarkably deviates from the trend normally expected for composites between a heavily doped semiconductor (Cu 2 Se) and a poorly conducting phase (CuInSe 2 ). A sudden 3-fold increase in the electrical conductivity and carrier concentration along with a marginal increase in the carrier mobility is observed for composites at the vicinity of equimolar composition (48% ≤ x ≤ 52%). The carrier concentration increases from ~1.5 × 10 20 cm -3 for the composites with x ≤ 45% to 5.0 × 10 20 cm -3 for x = 50%, and remains constant at 4.5 × 10 20 cm -3 with x value in the range of 52% < x ≤ 90%, then quickly drops to 8 × 10 18 cm -3 for pristine CuInSe 2 phase (x = 100%). The atypical electronic behavior was rationalized in the light of the formation of an inter-band (IB) within the band gap, which arises from the hybridization of native electronic point defects from both Cu 2 Se and CuInSe 2 phases in the resulting hierarchical composites. The result points to a new strategy to modulate the electronic structure of semiconductor composites to maximize interaction and coupling between two fundamentally contrasting properties enabling access to electronic hybrid systems with potential applications as interactive and stimuli-responsive multifunctional materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Redshift calibration of the MagLim++ lens sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3 x 2pt cosmology analysis. The 3 x 2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection ( B alrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O(10 8 ) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the n(z) uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. Here, this analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

dark energy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of the isovector spin-orbit potential in mitigating the CREX-PREX dilemma

Pioneering electroweak measurements of the neutron skin thickness in lead-208 and calcium-48 are challenging our understanding of nuclear dynamics. Many theoretical models suggest that the slope of the symmetry energy controls the development of a neutron skin in neutron-rich nuclei. This led to the expectation that if lead-208 exhibits a large neutron skin, calcium-48 should as well. Given that the PREX Collaboration reported a relatively thick neutron skin in lead, we anticipated that calcium would also have a significant neutron skin. Instead, the CREX Collaboration reported a thin neutron skin in calcium. Although many suggestions have been proposed, the “CREX-PREX dilemma” remains unsolved. Recently, an intriguing scenario has emerged, suggesting that an enhanced isovector spin-orbit interaction could simultaneously account for both results. Following this approach, we performed relativistic mean-field calculations with an increased isovector spin-orbit potential. Our findings indicate that, while this modification significantly affects the structure of calcium-48, it has only a marginal impact on lead-208, thereby bringing the results into better agreement with experiment. Furthermore, the strong enhancement required to mitigate the CREX-PREX dilemma destroys the agreement with a successful spin-orbit phenomenology, primarily by modifying the well-known ordering of spin-orbit partners.

Neutron skin thickness↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Role in a Power Grid with a High Proportion of Variable Renewables

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordination of multiple tools, including water resources modeling, ecological modeling, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. Better representation of ecological constraints and other water use details in the suit of power grid models are required to identify the hydropower flexibility to provide multiple power grid services. Impacts of water planning and hydropower operation changes to a power grid are better understood by production cost model simulations with technical and economic data, including unserved energy, reserve failures, transmission congestion to serve load, and local marginal price increases. Similarly, PCM simulation of current and future projected power grid information, including LMP, and carbon emission rates, informs short-term water release plans and long-term investments for power plant upgrades for technical and ecological needs. Hydropower operations of several case studies are simulated to understand operation patterns, revenue, water release decisions in multiple time scales (month, day, minutes), hydropower contracts scheduling, and water variability impacts.

environmental↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of carbon capture at cellulosic biorefineries

The large-scale production of cellulosic biofuels would involve spatially distributed systems including biomass fields, logistics networks and biorefineries. Better understanding of the interactions between landscape-related decisions and the design of biorefineries with carbon capture and storage (CCS) in a supply chain context is needed to enable efficient systems. Here we analyse the cost and greenhouse gas mitigation potential for cellulosic biofuel supply chains in the US Midwest using realistic spatially explicit land availability and crop productivity data and consider fuel conversion technologies with detailed CCS design for their associated CO2 streams.

carbon capture and storage (CCS)↗

DOE OSTI2022

WALLABY Pre-pilot Survey: The Effects of Tidal Interaction on Radial Distribution of Color in Galaxies of the Eridanus Supergroup

We study the tidal interaction of galaxies in the Eridanus supergroup, using H i data from the pre-pilot survey of the Widefield ASKAP L-band Legacy All-sky Blind surveY. We obtain optical photometric measurements and quantify the strength of tidal perturbation using a tidal parameter S sum . For low-mass galaxies of M * ≲ 10 9 M ⊙ , we find a dependence of decreasing H i to optical disk size ratio with increasing S sum , but no dependence of H i spectral line asymmetry with S sum . This is consistent with the behavior expected under tidal stripping. We confirm that the color profile shape and color gradient depend on the stellar mass, but there is an additional correlation of low-mass galaxies having their color gradients within 2R 50 increasing with higher S sum . For these low-mass galaxies, the dependence of color gradients on S sum is driven by the color becoming progressively redder in the inner disk when tidal perturbations are stronger. For high-mass galaxies, there is no dependence of color gradients on S sum , and we find a marginal reddening throughout the disks with increasing S sum . Our result highlights tidal interaction as an important environmental effect in producing the faint end of the star formation suppressed sequence in galaxy groups.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Optimal Power Control Strategy for Grid-Following Inverters in a Synchronous Frame

This work proposes a power control strategy based on the linear quadratic regulator with optimal reference tracking (LQR-ORT) for a three-phase inverter-based generator (IBG) using an LCL filter. The use of an LQR-ORT controller increases robustness margins and reduces the quadratic value of the power error and control inputs during transient response. A model in a synchronous reference frame that integrates power sharing and voltage–current (V–I) dynamics is also proposed. This model allows for analyzing closed-loop eigenvalue location and robustness margins. The proposed controller was compared against a classical droop approach using proportional-resonant controllers for the inner loops. Mathematical analysis and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) experiments under variations in the LCL filter components demonstrate fulfillment of robustness and performance bounds of the LQR-ORT controller. Experimental results demonstrate accuracy of the proposed model and the effectiveness of the LQR-ORT controller in improving transient response, robustness, and power decoupling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Integration of a Stochastic Clad Damage Propagation Model into PRONGHORN-SC Subchannel Analysis Code

The failure of fuel pins in nuclear reactors is intrinsically stochastic. Typically, a combination of variation in manufacturing that affects the material characteristics and the fuel assembly dimensions, variation in operating conditions, such as local power, coolant flow rate, and irradiation induced changes in material properties lead to a large uncertainty in failure margin of the fuel pins. Failure, therefore, may occur in exceptional pins with adverse combinations of these variations. Upon a metal fuel pin (U-Pu-Zr/HT9) failure, depressurization of the fuel pin takes place by release of fission gas, liquid sodium bond, and potentially solid fuel particles or molten/eutectic fuel droplets through the hole in cladding. The effect of a fission gas jet on neighbor fuel pins and possible propagation of a clad damage during normal operation was studied experimentally in 1970s and it was found that the post-failure fission gas jet insulates the jet impingement area of the target fuel pin surface and could increase the target pin’s surface temperature by as much as 100 – 200 K during the failed pin depressurization. It was concluded that the effect should not lead to fuel pin failure propagation during normal operation. In accident scenarios of sodium and lead fast reactors such as Unprotected Loss-Of-Flow (ULOF) or Unprotected Transient Over Power (UTOP), the fuel pins can be subjected to higher clad temperatures and fuel pin pressures or fuel clad mechanical/chemical interaction where thermal creep margin becomes significantly lower compared to the normal operation conditions. Therefore, possible stochastic failure and the post-failure fission gas/fuel jet impingement could be critical in order to predict fuel pin failure propagation. Pin depressurization due to fission gas release may degrade the heat transfer by formation of a gas blanket on a neighboring pin surface, which is a local phenomenon, and by causing coolant flow deceleration and starvation, which could affect a surrounding region as well. Furthermore, the potential presence of solid fuel particles or molten fuel at the time of clad failure could boost post-failure jet induced degradation even further. The present study models the U-Pu-Zr/HT9 metal fuel pin failure and stochastic clad damage propagation by biased sampling based on a Cumulative Damage Fraction (CDF) type clad failure criterion and the normal distribution of fuel failure probability density as a function of logarithm of Cumulative Damage Fraction. In addition, the effect of post-failure fission gas jet on heat transfer degradation is modeled for the target pins. This model is called stochastic Clad Damage Propagation (CDAP). The CDAP model is now fully integrated into developmental version of PRONGHORN-SC subchannel analysis code, allowing for modeling local failures and its propagation potential. Section 2 describes the components of the CDAP models. Section 3 describes the model implementation to PRONGHORN-SC and input specifications. Section 4 describes the CDAP model validation coupled to PRONGHORN-SC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synthesizing Stellar Populations in South Pole Telescope Galaxy Clusters. I. Ages of Quiescent Member Galaxies at 0.3 < $\textit{z}$ < 1.4

Using stellar population synthesis models to infer star formation histories (SFHs), we analyze photometry and spectroscopy of a large sample of quiescent galaxies that are members of Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ)-selected galaxy clusters across a wide range of redshifts. We calculate stellar masses and mass-weighted ages for 837 quiescent cluster members at 0.3 < $\textit{z}$ < 1.4 using rest-frame optical spectra and the Python-based Prospector framework, from 61 clusters in the SPT-GMOS Spectroscopic Survey (0.3 < $\textit{z}$ < 0.9) and three clusters in the SPT Hi-z cluster sample (1.25 < $\textit{z}$ < 1.4). We analyze spectra of subpopulations divided into bins of redshift, stellar mass, cluster mass, and velocity-radius phase-space location, as well as by creating composite spectra of quiescent member galaxies. We find that quiescent galaxies in our data set sample a diversity of SFHs, with a median formation redshift (corresponding to the lookback time from the redshift of observation to when a galaxy forms 50% of its mass, $t_{50}$) of $\textit{z}$ = 2.8 ± 0.5, which is similar to or marginally higher than that of massive quiescent field and cluster galaxy studies. We also report median age–stellar mass relations for the full sample (age of the universe at $t_{50}$ (Gyr) = 2.52 (±0.04)–1.66 (±0.12) log$_{10}(M/10^{11}M_⊙$)) and recover downsizing trends across stellar mass; we find that massive galaxies in our cluster sample form on aggregate ~0.75 Gyr earlier than lower-mass galaxies. We also find marginally steeper age–mass relations at high redshifts, and report a bigger difference in formation redshifts across stellar mass for fixed environment, relative to formation redshifts across environment for fixed stellar mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Role of Accident Tolerant Cladding on Source Term Reduction for High-Burnup PWRs Using MELCOR

The use of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding can increase coping times during and beyond design basis accidents. While such gains may be incremental, they provide a margin that can potentially be recovered to enable high-burnup (HBU) operation. Realizing such a margin requires demonstrating that the combination of HBU and ATF has not led to an overall increase in source term. This study investigates the influence of cladding technology (Zr-based, Cr-coated Zr, and FeCrAl) and fuel cycle length (18 and 24 months) on radiological dose at the boundary of the exclusion zone for a four-loop pressurized water reactor to investigate whether ATF claddings can provide such benefits. We analyze a recovered large break loss-of-coolant accident scenario to investigate the impact of transient timescale on the benefits of such coping time increases. The simulations have been performed using the MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System codes. For the cases analyzed, increased fuel cycle length did not necessarily increase radionuclide release and hydrogen generation, as these were found to be sensitive to the core power distribution. Similarly, off-site dose consequence is dominated by short-lived radionuclides that tend to saturate earlier in the burnup, so higher burnup operation did not necessarily increase the source term for the phenomena and transients analyzed here. Delays in recovery of the lowpressure safety injection system increase hydrogen production and radionuclide release, especially between 780 s and 1620 s, due to the nonlinear oxidation and core degradation behavior. Results show that Cr-coated Zr enhances safety by delaying heatup and gap release. Here, when uncertainty propagation on oxidation properties is considered, FeCrAl exhibits the lowest overall radionuclide release and off-site dose throughout the spectrum. However, while the considered “base model” performance is superior under delayed injection scenarios, upper-bound cases display hydrogen generation risk comparable to the Zr-based cladding.

Accident Tolerant Fuel↗

DOE OSTI2022

Capacity Markets for Transactive Energy Systems

Capacity markets provide important incentives for resource adequacy in electricity markets and may become more important for providing sufficient revenue and generation capacity with changes to energy market prices driven by increasing levels of zero marginal cost resources. However, current capacity market designs also have important shortfalls that may limit the benefits they can provide to the future grid. Current capacity markets are primarily designed for participation from conventional thermal generators, but markets are evolving with increasing levels of variable renewable energy resources. However, further reforms may be necessary to enable more participation from DERs and demand-side resources. To understand the benefits and shortfalls of current capacity market design, we review the historical reasons electricity markets have needed capacity markets or capacity payments for resource adequacy, and how current capacity market designs may create challenges for incorporating increasing levels of DERs and demand-side resources. We then consider how transactive systems, which allow the coordination of bids and offers for DERs and demand-side resources through a market interaction approach, administered by a Distribution System Operator (DSO), can address traditional resource adequacy problems due to inelastic consumer demand. We also consider the need for a DSO-level capacity market in helping to meet resource adequacy, reliability, and other electricity market objectives. We find that because the missing money in electricity markets is largely driven by incentives to meet resource adequacy goals, and the bulk grid would always supply power to the DSO, that resource adequacy is unlikely to be a determining factor in the need for a DSO-level capacity market. Many current reliability problems could also be addressed by the incorporation of more flexible demand enabled with transactive energy systems. However, other DSO objectives, including resilience, reactive power, voltage control, environmental policies, and energy equity could lead to specific challenges that could be aided by a DSO-level capacity market. We consider the possibility of a DSO-level capacity market in addressing these challenges as well as its potential role in coordinating with the Independent System Operator (ISO) who operates the wholesale market. We conclude with suggestions for future research, including the need to develop analytical models of DSO-level capacity market designs to address these potential objectives and examine their implications for DSOs and consumers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cloud Atlas: High-precision HST/WFC3/IR Time-resolved Observations of Directly Imaged Exoplanet HD 106906b

HD 106906b is an ∼11M{sub Jup}, ∼15 Myr old directly imaged exoplanet orbiting at an extremely large distance from its host star. The wide separation (7.″11) between HD 106906b and its host star greatly reduces the difficulty in direct-imaging observations, making it one of the most favorable directly imaged exoplanets for detailed characterization. In this paper, we present HST/WFC3/IR time-resolved observations of HD 106906b in the F127M, F139M, and F153M bands. We have achieved ∼1% precision in the lightcurves in all three bands. The F127M lightcurve demonstrates marginally detectable (2.7σ significance) variability with a best-fitting period of 4 hr, while the lightcurves in the other two bands are consistent with flat lines. We construct primary-subtracted deep images and use these images to exclude additional companions to HD 106906 that are more massive than 4 M{sub Jup} and locate at projected distances of more than ∼500 au. We measure the astrometry of HD 106906b in two HST/WFC3 epochs and achieve precisions better than 2.5 mas. The position angle and separation measurements do not deviate from those in the 2004 HST/ACS/HRC images for more than 1σ uncertainty. We provide the HST/WFC3 astrometric results for 25 background stars that can be used as reference sources in future precision astrometry studies. Our observations also provide the first 1.4 μm water band photometric measurement for HD 106906b. HD 106906b’s spectral energy distribution and the best-fitting BT-Settl model have an inconsistency in the 1.4 μm water absorption band, which highlights the challenges in modeling atmospheres of young planetary-mass objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗